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Aktielikviditet på Stockholmsbörsen och NGM - prissätts likviditet i aktiehandeln? / Stock liquidity on the Stockholm Stock Exchange and NGM - Does liquidity affect the pricing of common stocks?Olofsson, Niklas, Törnqvist, Alice January 2019 (has links)
Syfte: Syftet är att undersöka om det finns ett samband mellan aktiers likviditet och avkastning. Metod: Vår studie består av en kvantitativ metod där vi med hjälp av databasen Eikon från Thomson Reuters samlat in finansiella data. Vi har sedan med hjälp av Excel sammanställt och gjort beräkningar och slutligen gjort korrelationstester i statistikprogrammet SPSS. Resultat och slutsats: Studien skiljer sig från tidigare forskningsresultat då ingen signifikant likviditetspremie kan fastställas vid årlig ombalansering av portföljerna. När portföljerna behåller samma aktier under hela tidsperioden (6 år) finner vi däremot att den minst likvida portföljen genererar betydligt högre avkastning jämfört med den mest likvida portföljen. Bidrag: Studiens teoretiska bidrag stärker tidigare forskningsresultat om att beta inte är ett komplett riskmått vad gäller illikvida aktier. Ingen likviditetspremie uppkommer då innehavsperioden är ett år men då vår innehavsperiod istället är sex år finner vi stora skillnader mellan vår minst respektive mest likvida portfölj. Studiens praktiska bidrag riktar sig till investerare och företagsledare. Investerare kan vid längre tidsperioder nyttja LM12 som en investeringsstrategi för att skapa en överavkastning och företagsledare kan undersöka nyttan med att öka likviditeten i företagets aktier för att sänka företagets WACC och därmed öka värdet på företaget. Förslag till vidare forskning: För att studera aktielikviditeten vidare skulle andra innehavsperioder (längre än ett år) för portföljerna kunna undersökas. Att undersöka längre tidsperioder för studien hade också varit intressant för att undersöka hur likviditetspremien varierar över tid. / Aim: The aim is to examine if there is a relationship between the liquidity and return of common stocks. Method: This study consists of quantitative research method in which we have collected financial data using the Eikon database from Thomson Reuters. We then compiled and made calculations using Excel and finally made correlation tests in the statistics program SPSS. Result and conclusion: The results from this study differs from previous research results since no significant liquidity premium could be determined while using annual rebalancing of the portfolios. When the portfolios held the same stocks for the entire period (6 years), we found that the least liquid portfolio generated significantly higher returns compared to the most liquid portfolio. Contribution of the thesis: The study's theoretical contribution strengthens previous research results in that beta is not a complete risk measure in terms of illiquid shares. No liquidity premium arises when the holding period is one year, but when our holding period is instead six years, we find great differences between our least and most liquid portfolio. The practical contribution of the study is aimed at investors and business leaders. Investors can use LM12 as an investment strategy to create an excess return during long holding periods, and business leaders can examine the benefits of increasing the liquidity of the company's common stock to lower the company's WACC and hence increase the value of the company. Suggestion for future research: In order to study the liquidity premium further, other holding periods (longer than one year) for the portfolios could be investigated. Investigating longer time periods for the study would also be interesting to investigate how the liquidity premium varies over time.
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Subcentralidades e e prêmio salarial intra-urbano na região metropolitana de São Paulo / Subcentralities and infra-urban wape premium in the metropolitan area of São PauloCampos, Rodger Barros Antunes 13 September 2018 (has links)
As economias de aglomeração apresentam externalidades que impactam sobre os vetores de preços da economia. As interações que ocorrem nas aglomerações são relevantes para a compreensão dos benefícios gerados pela proximidade. Tais benefícios impactam diretamente o salário do trabalho e os preços dos imóveis, entre outros. Muitos trabalhos focaram em estudar economias de aglomeração no contexto espacial agregado, mas poucos estiveram focados no espaço intra-urbano. Em face dessa lacuna na literatura de Economia de Aglomeração, a análise nesta tese debruça-se sobre a Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP), que foi dividida em áreas homogêneas de 1 km2. Dois são os objetivos centrais desse trabalho. Primeiro, buscou-se identificar as áreas mais relevantes quanto à aglomeração de trabalhadores na RMSP, ou seja, os subcentros de emprego (SBD). Para tanto, utilizaram-se os microdados geocodificados do Ministério do Trabalho (RAIS- MTE) para os anos de 2002, 2008 e 2014. Uma nova abordagem empírica foi desenvolvida, utilizando Regressões Ponderadas Geograficamente e uma regra objetiva de valor de corte. Os resultados apontam para três SBD nos anos de 2002 e 2008. No ano de 2014, a abordagem metodológica desenvolvida nessa tese com valor de corte mais restrito identifica apenas dois SBD. Nos dois períodos iniciais, os SBD se localizam em Barueri, São Paulo e São Caetano do Sul. No último ano avalidado, localizam-se em Barueri e São Paulo. O padrão observado é que o emprego localizado nas áreas centrais de São Paulo apresenta nível de crescimento relativamente maior do que nas demais áreas. Os demais SBD perdem não apenas em termos de emprego, mas também em termos de área, isto é, as áreas dos SBD nesses municípios se reduzem. Em 2002, os SBD de Barueri e São Caetano do Sul ocupavam áreas de 5 e 7 km2, respectivamente. Em 2014, o primeiro ocupava 1 km2 e o segundo deixou de existir. Em São Paulo, a área se elevou de 79 km2 para 90 km2. Os resultados sugerem elevada concentração espacial do emprego na RMSP. No segundo ensaio, objetiva-se identificar o impacto da aglomeração sobre os salários dos trabalhadores e, adicionalmente, testa-se a hipótese de atenuação espacial da aglomeração. Para tanto, construiu-se uma base de dados longitudinal e considerou-se uma especificação com múltiplos efeitos fixos e defasagem espacial da aglomeração de emprego. Mesmo em face de uma especificação mais restritiva, os resultados sugerem efeito positivo da aglomeração, o qual é atenuado com o distanciamento espacial. Em outras palavras, a aglomeração impacta positivamente o salário. Em estimações que desconsideram a questão da endogeneidade, estima-se um efeito direto (na própria área) de 0,039%, efeito indireto de primeira ordem (em áreas contíguas) de -0,11% e efeito indireto de segunda ordem (anel externo às áreas contíguas) de -0,23%, normalizado por 100,000. Ao tratar o problema da endogeneidade, através do uso de variáveis instrumentais, obtém-se efeito direto de 1,78%, indireto de primeira ordem de -2,12% e o efeito de segunda ordem não é estatisticamente significante. / Agglomeration economies are externalities that impact on prices in the economy. The interactions that occur in agglomerations are relevant for the understanding of the benefits generated by proximity. These benefits directly affect workers\' wage, real estate prices, etc. Many papers have focused on non-market interaction in aggregated labor markets, but intra-urban labor markets have received less attention. Seeking to fulfill such lack, 1 km2 areas of the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) are taken as the scope of analysis of this study. The central objectives of this dissertation are twofold. First, in chapter 3, I identified and characterized the most relevant areas in terms of job agglomeration in the MASP, named subcentral business districts (SBD). For this purpose, the geocoded matched employer-employee database of the Ministry of Labor (RAIS- TEM) was used. I developed a new empirical approach to identify the SBD, using Geographicaly Weight Regression and cut-off rules of identification. The results identified three SBD in the years of 2002 and 2008, and only two in 2014. Considering the two initial periods, the SBD are located in the municipalities of Barueri (SBD-BAR), São Paulo (SBD-SAO) and São Caetano do Sul (SBD-SCS). In the last year, the SBD are located in Barueri and São Paulo municipality only. The employment located in the central areas of São Paulo shows a relatively higher amount of employee than in the other SBD areas. SBD-BAR and SBD-SCS lost not only in terms of employment, but also in terms of area. In 2002, these last two SBD occupied areas of 5 and 7 km2 respectively. In 2014, the SBD-BAR occupied 1 km2, while the SBD-SCS is not ranked at all. In São Paulo, the area ranges from 79 km2 to 90 km2. The results stemmed from the first paper suggest a high spatial concentration of employment in the MASP. In the second paper (chapter 4), the objectives are to identify the impact of agglomeration on workers\' wages and test the agglomeration spatial attenuation hypothesis (SAH). For that, I use employer-employee RAIS database and consider a specification with multiple fixed effects and spatial lags of the employment agglomeration as a strategy to SAH identification. Even in the face of a more restrictive specification, the results suggest a positive effect of agglomeration, which is attenuated as the spatial distance increases. In other words, agglomeration affects positively workers\' wage in the workplace area. Estimates without solving for endogeneity between wage and agglomeration indicate a direct effect of 0.039% (in the area itself), a first-order indirect effect of -0.11% (in the contiguous areas), and a second-order effect of -0.23% (in the ring around the contiguous areas), normalized by 100,000. When considering instrumental variables, the estimated direct effect on wages becomes 1.78%, the first-order effect changes to -2.12%, and the second order effect is not statistically significant.
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Les actions françaises depuis 1854 : analyses et découvertes / The French stocks since 1854 : analysis and findingsLe Bris, David 01 February 2011 (has links)
Le Bris a collecté environ 200 000 données sur les actions françaises entre 1854 et 1988 pour construire un indice de performances.Différents biais qui surestimaient la rentabilité dans les indices français existants sont identifiés. D’autres probables cas à l’étranger sont présentés.Sur le long terme, les actions offrent une meilleure rentabilité que les autres actifs mais sans prime particulière.Par rapport aux actions américaines, les françaises sous-performent y compris durant les périodes de paix.Le marché est très sensible aux changements de gouvernements et surperforme sous ceux de gauche.Une nouvelle méthode de détection des krachs est proposée. Elle identifie des krachs cohérents avec l’histoire.Les entreprises de services dominent la capitalisation boursière de manière quasi-continue depuis 1854.La rationalité des investissements en emprunts russes avant 1914 est démontrée grâce à une optimisation de portefeuille parmi les actifs français (action, obligation, rente) et huit emprunts d’Etats étrangers.Une nouvelle méthode de décomposition du bénéfice de diversification est proposée ; les investisseurs français étaient attirés par la faible corrélation plus que par les rentabilités étrangères supérieures avant 1914.Les actions françaises et américaines présentent une hausse de corrélation sur le long terme probablement suivant l’intégration des économies. Ainsi, l’incitation à diversifier internationalement a baissé.Le risque de marché enregistre une forte hausse durant l’entre-deux-guerres et le niveau pré-1914 n’est jamais retrouvé. Il semble lié à la fin du Gold Standard, à l’inflation et aux déficits publics.Conséquence de la hausse de ce risque commun, la corrélation entre actions françaises augmente, réduisant l’effet de diversification domestique ; a l’opposé un « super effet portefeuille » est identifiée avant 1914. / Le Bris, collecting about 200,000 data on French stocks from 1854 to 1988, builds a performance index. Several biases leading to overestimate the returns in prior French indices are demonstrated, as well as other probable examples across the globe.Over the long run, French stocks provide a better return than other assets, but without any excessive premium.Compared to US stocks, French stocks have underperformed since 1914, including during the periods of peace.The French stock market is highly sensitive to governmental changes, and overperforms under the left ones.A new method to identify market crashes is proposed. This method identifies crashes that are consistent withhistory.Firms from service industries have almost always dominated market capitalization since 1854.The rationality of the French investments in Russian bonds, before 1914, is demonstrated thanks to a portfoliooptimization among French assets (stock, bonds and corporate bonds) and eight international state bonds.A new method to decompose the benefit of diversification is proposed; before 1914, French investors wereclearly attracted by low foreign correlation rather than higher foreign returns.French and US stocks present a long-term rise in correlation, probably following the economic integration.Thus, the incentive to diversify through international markets has decreased.The market risk exhibits a significant rise during the interwar-period, and the pre-1914 level is never reachedagain. This risk appears to be linked to the end of the Gold Standard, the inflation rate and the public deficits.The consequence of the rise of this common risk is that the correlation among French stocks trend upwards, andthen, reduce the domestic portfolio effect; reversely, before 1914, a “super portfolio effect” is identified.
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[en] ANALYSIS AND VALUATION OF THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM IN THE BRAZILIAN AND US STOCK MARKETS / [pt] ANÁLISE E AVALIAÇÃO DO PRÊMIO DE RISCO NOS MERCADOS ACIONÁRIOS BRASILEIRO E AMERICANOLUCIANO SNEL CORREA 11 March 2003 (has links)
[pt] O Prêmio de Risco do mercado acionário, infelizmente, não
possui uma definição universalmente aceita. O material já
publicado sobre o tema Prêmio de Risco do mercado acionário
é muito vasto e abrangente, abordando desde análises ex-
post sobre dados históricos (com diversos períodos
amostrais, intervalos de observação, fatores de ajuste e em
diversos países) até estimativas do prêmio ex-ante através
dos mais variados modelos baseados em variáveis tais como
aversão a risco, crescimento do consumo, dados contábeis e
dividend yield, entre outros. O objetivo desta dissertação
será analisarmos uma condensação das várias abordagens
utilizadas, seus resultados e contribuições. Frente as
significativas diferenças encontradas ao se computar o
prêmio de risco, é fundamental o usuário da estimativa do
prêmio de risco saber claramente qual a definição usada na
estimativa e por que tal definição seria apropriada para
seu propósito particular. No final dessa dissertação
realizaremos uma estimativa do prêmio de risco no Brasil
com base em um estudo de 1993 realizado pela
McKinsey e Company, Inc. / [en] Unfortunately, there is no universally accepted definition
of the Equity Risk Premium. Available material on the theme
are very broad and deep, ranging from ex-post analysis on
historical data -with distinct samples in different time
periods- to ex-ante estimates of the equity premium making
use of several models based in variables such as risk
aversion, consumption growth, accounting data and dividend
yield, among others. The objective of this paper will be to
analyze a compilation of several approaches taken, their
results and contributions. In face of the significant
differences presented when computing the equity premium, it
is key for the investor who will make use of the equity
premium estimate to know clearly which definition of the
premium he will be using and why is that definition
appropriate for his particular purpose. In the final
chapter we will estimate the equity risk premium in Brazil
based on a study developed in 1993 by McKinsey and Company, Inc.
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Da lavoura ao concreto: os impactos sociais causados pela construção da refinaria Premium I em Bacabeira/MABentivi, Daiane Rose Cunha 01 October 2012 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2012-10-01 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / This research is focused on the analysis of the social impacts on the rural workers in Bacabeira-MA caused by the start of the construction of a Great Project Investment: Premium I Refinery of Petrobras. From the analysis of this case, we evaluated the way how small towns of traditional features are swallowed by the capitalist economic system. The study was carried out by the experiences of residents and workers in the town of Salva Terra II, which were removed from the area. For this purpose, we use the theoretical framework of the Socio-Historical Psychology, which conceives the subject as a result of his historical and social context. From the analysis of the results obtained, we can see the impacts both in symbolic relations and in the objective reality of the affected individuals, thus indicating the need for prior planning of mitigation measures to be taken by GPI in traditional communities affected / A presente pesquisa tem como tema central a análise dos impactos sociais nos trabalhadores rurais do município de Bacabeira-MA causados pelo início da obra de construção de um Grande Projeto de Investimento: a Refinaria Premium I da Petrobras. A partir da análise desse estudo de caso, avaliamos a forma como pequenas cidades de características tradicionais são engolidas pelo sistema econômico capitalista. O estudo desenvolveu-se mediante as vivências de moradores e trabalhadores do povoado de Salva Terra II que foram removidos da área. Para tanto, utiliza-se o referencial teórico da Psicologia Sócio-Histórica, que concebe o sujeito como fruto de seu contexto histórico e social. A partir da análise dos dados obtidos, percebe-se os impactos tanto nas relações simbólicas quanto na realidade objetiva dos sujeitos afetados, indicando assim a necessidade de haver um planejamento prévio das medidas mitigadoras a serem adotadas pelos GPI em comunidades tradicionais atingidas
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Análise do desempenho operacional de seguradoras que operam no ramo de automóveis: um estudo com a aplicação de índices combinadosDeis, Cibele de Paula 23 May 2011 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2011-05-23 / PricewaterhouseCoopers Auditores Independentes / The purpose of this study is to analyze the performance of insurance companies operating in auto lines, during the period from 1999 to 2008. Based on the analysis of the combined and broad-based combined ratios, as well as other correlated indices (claims ratio and ratios of selling and administrative expenses), it was possible to ascertain the level of dependence on financial gains required to obtain positive results. The study was limited to insurance companies operating in auto lines, which is Brazil's most popular type of insurance and, in this context, 18 large, medium and small insurance companies were analyzed based on their financial statements. The performance of insurance companies linked to banks, as well as that of the independent companies was examined. The results of the study revealed that, during the period from 1999 to 2008, financial gains contributed from 10.19% to 17.52% to improving the operating efficiency of the insurance companies under analysis and to maintaining, for the whole period, the broad-based combined ratios below 100%. At the same time, the average combined ratios determined varied from 122.91% to 98.33%. Only in 2006 and 2007, did the sample under analysis present operating efficiency. Moreover, the insurance companies presented high operating costs, especially for claims. In a comparison between the bank-linked insurance companies and the independent insurance companies, it was noted that, on average, the selling and administrative expenses of insurance companies which use a bank branch network for distributing their products were lower than those of the independent companies comprising the sample. During the period from 2003 to 2007, the large-sized insurance companies not associated to banks revealed a gradual improvement in operating efficiency, due to the significant decrease in the claims ratio of the portfolio and a partial reduction in administrative expenses. Considering that competition is expected to become even tougher, it follows that the insurance companies will need to focus on reducing costs and improving their operating controls in order to reduce their dependence on financial results and promote the continuity of their business / O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar o desempenho operacional de seguradoras que operam no ramo de Automóveis, no período de 1999 a 2008. A partir da análise dos índices combinado e combinado ampliado, bem como dos demais índices correlatos (sinistralidade e das despesas de comercialização e administrativa) foi possível verificar o nível de dependência dos ganhos financeiros para obtenção de resultados positivos. A pesquisa foi limitada às seguradoras que atuam no ramo de Automóveis, que é o seguro mais popular no país, e, nesse contexto, foram estudadas as 18 maiores seguradoras de grande, médio e pequeno porte, tomando por base as demonstrações contábeis. Verificou-se, também, o desempenho das seguradoras ligadas a Bancos e as Independentes. Os resultados da pesquisa evidenciaram que no período de 1999 a 2008, os ganhos financeiros contribuíram de 10,19% a 17,52% para melhoria da eficiência operacional das seguradoras estudadas e, fazendo com que durante todo o período os índices combinados ampliados ficassem inferiores a 100%. Por sua vez, os índices combinados médios apurados variaram de 122,91% a 98,33%. A amostra estudada apresentou eficiência operacional, somente em relação aos exercícios de 2006 e 2007. Além disso, as seguradoras apresentaram elevados custos operacionais, especialmente, com sinistros. Na comparação das seguradoras ligadas a Bancos e independentes, observou-se que, na média, as despesas de comercialização e administrativas das seguradoras que utilizam a rede de agência dos Bancos para distribuição de seus produtos foram inferiores as demais. No período de 2003 a 2007, as seguradoras de grande porte não ligadas a Bancos mostraram uma melhoria gradual na eficiência operacional, devido à redução significativa da sinistralidade da carteira e parcialmente das despesas administrativas. Considerando que a concorrência tende a continuar ser cada vez mais acirrada, conclui-se que as seguradoras necessitam focar na redução dos custos e controles operacionais, a fim de reduzir sua dependência dos resultados financeiros e a continuidade do seu negócio
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Chinese Consumer Willingness Towards Eco-Conscious Apparel Purchase : An Application of the Theory of Planned BehaviorJin, Fanlv January 2019 (has links)
Purpose – This thesis aims to contribute to the understanding of the Chinese customers’ perception and acceptance of eco-conscious apparel (ECA) based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB). The thesis further examines whether people would like to pay more for ECA and how the factor of willingness to pay a premium is influenced by TPB variables. Design/methodology/approach – The research design is based on quantitative methodology. The data were collected via a web-based survey, a total of 315 responses from Chinese consumers were analyzed with application of the structural equation modeling. Findings – Both attitude toward ECA and perceived behavioral control over ECA acquisition have positive influence on ECA purchasing intention. Willingness to pay a premium for ECA is only positively affected by subjective norm. There is no correlation between ECA purchasing intention and willingness to pay a premium for ECA. Implications – To raise Chinese customers’ purchasing intention, fashion company should focus their actions on disseminating environmental information and knowledge, and offer affordable ECA options with the properties close to traditional apparel. To evoke the willingness to pay a premium for ECA, fashion company can apply celebrity endorsement to add perceived social value into its ECA series. Such actions will contribute to formation of positive social norm and hence positive perception towards ECA. Meanwhile, the government can put more efforts into educating Chinese people about sustainability issues in fashion industry, formulating and implementing policies in favor of ECA consumption, so that a positive social atmosphere for ECA consumption could be created. Originality/value – This study is novel in applying TPB for examining the consumer purchasing of apparel containing recycled fiber in China. The thesis provides useful information to corporate practitioners on how to formulate ECA marketing strategies in China. Research findings are also of relevance for Chinese government by providing recommendations for formulating relevant policies to favor the ECA consumption.
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Misskötta studielån : Hur mycket förväntas de kosta? / Defaulted student loans : What to expect?Peco, Amina January 2016 (has links)
När propositionen för ett reformerat studiestödssystem lades 1999 poängterades det att studiestödssystemet skulle bära sina egna kostnader. Trots det skrivs stora belopp av. Både Riksrevisionen och Riksgälden har visat att CSN inte använder vedertagna metoder vid beräkningen av det som förväntas gå förlorat på grund av misskötta betalningar. Uppsatsens syfte har varit att skatta vad misskötta betalningar väntas kosta staten i form av framtida avskrivningar samt beräkna vad det skulle innebära för individen att istället bära kostnaden. Som en del i det arbetet har även faktorer som påverkar sannolikheten för misskötta betalningar av studielån identifierats. Resultaten av denna uppsats har bland annat visat att sannolikheten för misskötta betalningar är lägre för individer med eftergymnasial utbildning, hög skuld och låg ålder. Statens kreditförluster på studielån för till exempel individer som blev återbetalningsskyldiga under 2012 förväntas bli mellan 100 och 338 miljoner kronor. Om denna kostnad istället skulle bäras av årskullen innebär det en kostnadsökning på 2,2-7,8 procent för en individ med genomsnittlig skuld.
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不同景氣循環階段下信用暨時間風險貼水差異之實證研究-兼論動態避險策略之選取 / How does Business Indicators Explain Bond Credit and Term Premium?-And How does it contribute to the Selection of Immunization Strategies?陳啟運, Chen, Chii Yuhn Unknown Date (has links)
本研究兩個研究主題(1)在不同景氣變動狀態下,殖利率曲線變動與動態避險策略的選擇;(2)不同景氣循環下,債券風險貼水的變動情形。景氣領先指標是一簡單明確訊號,其對於債市參與者改善投資、避險決策之效度應是有趣課題。景氣變動程度不同時,殖利率曲線變動情形亦有所不同;投資人需視殖利率曲線變動情形,選擇不同動態避險策略。當景氣上升時,殖利率曲線短期利率波動幅度大於長期利率波動幅度,以Khang(1979)模式建構動態避險策略;景氣波動程度不大,長短期利率波動方向不一,以多因子模式建構動態避險策略;而當景氣大幅度下降,短期利率下降幅度小於長期利率下降幅度,建議以Bierwag(1977)模式建構動態避險策略。國內動態避險實證分析上,黃慶堂與王芳妮(民80)以Macaulay(1938)、Bierwag(1979)、Khang(1979)與Chambers et al.(1988)模式作分析,Chambers et al.(1988)表現較傳統Macaulay(1938)模式優;史綱與丁子雲(民80)發現以Macaulay1938)模式建構動態避險策略,與長期持有公債收益率無顯著差異。所以Macaulay(1938)模式無法應付國內債券市場的需求,機構投資人應該因應殖利率曲線隨景氣變動情形,選擇較佳動態避險策略規避風險。
隨著發行與交易規模的快速成長,以及景氣狀況遞移,我國債市各工具殖利率結構在未來勢必會改變,景氣狀況變化之可能影響,是本研究試圖勾勒的要項;市場結構改變,會造成未來殖利率曲線大幅變化。本文只是推介數種存續期間模式,並討論如何增加嚴謹度。
不同景氣循環下,時間風險貼水隨景氣繁榮而擴大,使得公債市場上多為附買回保證金交易形式,投資期長多為固定(附買回契約的期長),投資人所賺取的多為長短期利差;而景氣衰退時,利率相對較低,債券價格高漲,投資人所賺取的多為債券價差,投資期長較不一定;信用風險貼水則因台電公司債稀釋效果、流動性貼水的變動以及信用風險貼水看法不一,而無法確定其與景氣循環的關係;而交易成本貼水方面,證交稅及交易規範形成進入公司債市場的障礙,景氣衰退時,由股市釋出資金,大多進入公債市場,形成短期避險資金,所以當股市出現轉機時,資金轉入股票市場;所以當景氣衰退,公債與公司債殖利率的差距會擴大。本研究副產品是發現公司債稀釋效果顯著,一般公司債發行金額均為五千萬元左右,而台電在四次發行公司債時,金額在五億上下,當台電公司債增加發行量時,台電公司債整體價格下降,殖利率上升,使得一般公司債與台電債券間殖利率差距縮小。銀行擔保效果方面,雖然發行公司會考慮到本身市場評價,選擇公民營銀行作擔保機構,讓其公司債信用等級與其他公司債的信用等級一致,但是公營銀行擔保的公司債殖利率較無擔保公司債低,民營銀行擔保效果亦為統計顯著,而且公民營銀行擔保效果有顯著的差異。
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國際iShares的跨境價格差異 / Cross-border Price Differences: Evidence from International iShares林淑惠, Lin, Shu Huei Unknown Date (has links)
在單一價格法則之下,國際ETF的市場價格應該與NAV或標的資產價格一致。由於ETF具備申購贖回機制,其溢價現象將較國家型封閉型基金來得低。本文以32檔國際iShares檢視國際ETF的績效與國際投資分散效果,資料期間為1996年至2006年10月20日之日資料,並在考量區域因素的影響之下,將樣本區分為全球型、已開發市場型、以及新興市場型ETF。
本實證結果顯示,如同國家型封閉基金常出現的溢折價現象,國際iShares存在價格差異現象,尤其於新興市場型iShares更為明顯而且波動較大。然而,此價格差異現象僅是暫時的,而且主要由本國資訊所影響。此外,價格均衡的調整時間與3天期的結算清算時間一致。因此,ETF的申購贖回機制有助於提升價格調整的效率性,亦即長期而言,iShares遵循單一價格法則,而且於美國市場交易的投資人可由該投資工具達到國際投資組合分散效果,尤以全球型或複合型的iShares為最。 / In the law of one price, the share price of international ETFs should be the same as the domestic stock price and NAV respectively. Especially, with specific mechanism of creation and redemption process for ETFs, price deviation would be mitigated effectively comparing with similar product of closed-end country funds. This paper examines international ETFs’ performance and international diversification effect through 32 international iShares which are the most popular international ETFs in the world, and we use daily data with sample period from inception to 2006/10/20. Consider the regional impact on the price deviation, we also categorize the sample to three types as global, developed, and emerging market ETFs.
In this paper, price deviations exist and are larger and more volatile for emerging market iShares, which is consistent with previous studies. However, the price deviations occur temporarily and are primarily driven by domestic information for all types of international iShares. We also find that the time of equilibrium adjusting process is consistent with three-day settlement period. Though incompletely perfect, the existence of the creation or redemption process along with the high transparency of iShares management appears to enhance price efficiency. Therefore, in the long-run, iShares price follow the law of one price, and US investors may obtain international diversification benefits through the instrument. Especially, the benefits will be larger for global or hybrid iShares comparing with country-specific iShares or emerging market iShares.
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