違約事件受到系統性風險與獨特性風險的綜合影響。本研究建構一狀態相依公司信用模型，該模型能反映出系統環境對市場造成的影響與個別公司獨特因子帶來的個別衝擊。 本模型透過從總體環境中萃取出的狀態變數來捕捉系統性變化，另外透過Variance Gamma過程來描繪個別公司的獨特因子帶來的影響。Variance Gamma過程可藉由調整分配的鋒態及偏態來調整布朗運動無法反映出的分配，以更貼近真實的市場訊息。 與縮減試模型相較之下，本模型無需參考信評機構的信用評等資訊，僅依賴市場上公開且透明的資訊，並且與結構式模型相同的是其富有經濟意涵。我們可以透過本模型來同時生成公司流動性危機發生機率與預期流動性危機造成的損失，進而利用本模型評價出個別公司信用違約交換的價格。 關鍵字：信用違約交換；系統風險；獨特性風險；狀態空間模型；Variance Gamma 過程 / Systematic and idiosyncratic risks are thought to affect the default events. This study develops a state-dependent corporate credit model that reflects both systematic movement and idiosyncratic shocks. To capture the systematic movement, the model extracts state factors from macroeconomics data. For the idiosyncratic part, the model applied Variance Gamma Process in depicting the potential variable of the firm by altering the distribution’s skewness and kurtosis. The model contains abundant economic significance as structural-form model does. Comparing to the reduced-form model, it does not rely on the information provided by rating agency but use information that is transparent and public. One can generate a firm’s probabilities of liquidity crisis and expected liquidity shortfalls endogenously and concurrently by employing the model. Credit derivative such as Single-name CDS can be priced under the model.

隨著資本市場的多元發展，近年來台灣企業發行可轉換公司債之件數倍增，可轉換公司債之所以受到企業青睞，成為愈來愈受歡迎的籌資工具，必有它的獨特之處，而海外可轉換公司債也是公司擴張海外市場的一大助力。本論文的研究目的即在了解台灣上市上櫃公司以國內可轉換公司債(Convertible Bond；簡稱CB)或海外可轉換公司債(Euro Convertible Bond；簡稱ECB)進行融資對其財務績效之影響，並驗證台灣企業發行ECB是否支持Merton(1987)之投資者認可假說。 本論文以1999至2003年間，96家僅發行國內可轉換公司債、70家僅發行海外可轉換公司債、11家同時發行國內與海外可轉換公司債的公司為樣本，實證研究之主要結論如下： 1.公司發行CB或ECB後財務槓桿顯著上升，尤以CB為甚，顯示其財務 風險增加，降低公司財務彈性。若以市值衡量負債比率，則ECB發 行公司在發行前的負債比率較CB發行公司略高，但發行後二年顯著 下降較快。 2.僅發行CB或ECB之樣本公司發行後系統風險皆顯著上升，但同時發 行CB與ECB之樣本，在發行CB後系統風險顯著上升，發行ECB後系統 風險則無顯著變化。 3.在發行公司的績效表現方面，本論文以可轉換公司債發行後的α係 數變化情形為超額報酬之衡量指標，發現三組樣本結果皆顯示CB與 ECB發行後其股價績效表現不佳，前兩組樣本較為顯著。 4.以僅發行ECB組別的70家公司為樣本進行實證，結果顯示發行ECB確 實能增進公司之能見度；但在投資者認可假說方面，台灣市場ECB 的發行並不支持投資者認可假說。故雖然ECB的發行增加公司的能 見度，但財務彈性降低與系統風險增加可能使投資者對公司之未來 前景產生更高之不確定性。 / With diverse development and further integration among international capital markets, more and more companies in Taiwan tend to issue convertible bond for financing in the past few years. In addition, Euro Convertible Bond (ECB) also facilitates firms to expand overseas markets and becomes popular. This study not only focuses on risk and stock price performance changes around convertible bond offerings, but also compares the differences between CB and ECB on research topics. It takes issuing companies that listed in Taiwan Stock Exchange or OTC as objects of study. Moreover, the study tests firm visibility as well as Merton’s investor recognition hypothesis of ECB. Picking 177 samples from Taiwan companies during 1999 and 2003, and I divide them into three groups. 96 firms in the first group only issue CB, 70 firms in the second group only issue ECB, and 11 firms in the final group issue both CB and ECB. According to the empirical results, this study points out several conclusions as follows. First, financial leverage increases after issuing CB or ECB, especially CB firms show more significant increase, and it reduces financial flexibility. Second, systematic risk of companies which only issuing CB or ECB reveal significant increase. However, the 11 firms in the third group show systematic risk that measured with beta increases significantly following CB issuances, but doesn’t change evidently following ECB issuances. Third, I would like to view stock price performance of CB and ECB issuers. The finding shows that relative long-term excess return of three groups all decrease, and the former two groups appear significant drop. Finally, Merton’s investor recognition hypothesis isn’t supported by 70 ECB samples even though issuing ECB could promote firm visibility. This outcome is probably attributed to decrease of financial flexibility and increase of systematic risk.

Submitted by Livio Cuzzi Maya (liviomaya@gmail.com) on 2015-04-14T14:31:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 dis_ref.pdf: 631490 bytes, checksum: d730ea4e26e9e8795547f24ea6da9284 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by BRUNA BARROS (bruna.barros@fgv.br) on 2015-04-17T14:05:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 dis_ref.pdf: 631490 bytes, checksum: d730ea4e26e9e8795547f24ea6da9284 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2015-05-04T12:20:07Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 dis_ref.pdf: 631490 bytes, checksum: d730ea4e26e9e8795547f24ea6da9284 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-04T12:20:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dis_ref.pdf: 631490 bytes, checksum: d730ea4e26e9e8795547f24ea6da9284 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-04-07 / We develop an affine jump diffusion (AJD) model with the jump-risk premium being determined by both idiosyncratic and systematic sources of risk. While we maintain the classical affine setting of the model, we add a finite set of new state variables that affect the paths of the primitive, under both the actual and the risk-neutral measure, by being related to the primitive's jump process. Those new variables are assumed to be commom to all the primitives. We present simulations to ensure that the model generates the volatility smile and compute the 'discounted conditional characteristic function'' transform that permits the pricing of a wide range of derivatives. / Desenvolvemos um model afim com saltos com o prêmio pelo risco dos saltos determinado tanto por variáveis idiossincráticas quanto por variáveis sistêmicas. Mantemos a clássica estrutura linear do modelo, mas adicionamos um conjunto finito de novas variáveis de estado que afetam o caminho percorrido pelo primitivo, tanto no distribuição real quanto na distribuição neutra ao risco, por afetar o processo de saltos do primitivo. Assumimos que essas novas variáveis de estado são comuns a todos os primitivos. Apresentamos simulações que garantem que o modelo gere o sorriso da volatilidade e computamos a transformação da 'função característica descontada condicional' que permite a precificação de uma ampla gama de derivativos.

Submitted by Berger Antoine (antoine.elie.berger@icloud.com) on 2016-10-23T18:33:20Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Antoine_Berger_THESIS-GV.pdf: 3338904 bytes, checksum: 289cc845dc6c3ae75dfa87d26b3fba4d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br) on 2016-10-24T10:57:22Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Antoine_Berger_THESIS-GV.pdf: 3338904 bytes, checksum: 289cc845dc6c3ae75dfa87d26b3fba4d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-10-24T11:06:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Antoine_Berger_THESIS-GV.pdf: 3338904 bytes, checksum: 289cc845dc6c3ae75dfa87d26b3fba4d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-09-26 / The Greek crisis happened in a total of three peaks, the last one happening during the Summer 2015. Western European financial sectors as well as financial markets in general in Europe were hardly hit despite the fact that private sectors in Europe widely reduced their exposure to Greece. In this research paper, we aim to test for Overreaction on the FTSE 100, DAX 30, and CAC40. The Overreaction Hypothesis states that overreacting indices display an asymmetric mean and variance. In this optic, we test for ARCH type models on the previously cited markets. / A crise grega aconteceu em um total de três picos, o último a acontecer durante o Verão de 2015. setores financeiros da Europa Ocidental, bem como os mercados financeiros em geral na Europa quase não foram atingidos apesar do fato de que os setores privados na Europa amplamente reduziram a sua exposição à Grécia . Neste trabalho de pesquisa, pretendemos testar a reação exagerada sobre o FTSE 100, DAX 30, e CAC40. A reação exagerada hipótese afirma que os índices de reagirem excessivamente exibir uma média assimétrica e variância. Nesta óptica, testamos para os modelos tipo de arco nos mercados citados anteriormente.

Submitted by Victor Sousa (vpsousa@globo.com) on 2016-10-07T15:34:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação EPGE_Victor Sousa.pdf: 2888885 bytes, checksum: 334b8886f93dd9c06eae5bf11b9ea19d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2016-11-09T13:17:25Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação EPGE_Victor Sousa.pdf: 2888885 bytes, checksum: 334b8886f93dd9c06eae5bf11b9ea19d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2016-12-06T11:47:10Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação EPGE_Victor Sousa.pdf: 2888885 bytes, checksum: 334b8886f93dd9c06eae5bf11b9ea19d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-06T11:47:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação EPGE_Victor Sousa.pdf: 2888885 bytes, checksum: 334b8886f93dd9c06eae5bf11b9ea19d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-05-15 / In this work we analyze the systematic risk implied in the Brazilian electricity distribution sector and compare it with the evolution of regulatory return rate (WACC Regulatory), in order to identify the presence of an additional risk premium with characteristics of regulatory risk. The energy distribution sector and its energy tariffs (price-caps) are regulated by the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL). The agency performs tariff revisions, every four/five years, in order to reestablish the financial-economic balance of concessionaires and to provide any adjustments to the regulatory model. The main step consists in measure the minimum regulatory return to reward the invested capital. Currently the sector goes through the 4th cycle of rate review (form 2015 to 2019) and, unlike the first two processes; ANEEL does not include the regulatory risk component in the composition of the Regulatory WACC (from CAPM methodology). Despite advances in the creation and consolidation of the regulatory model, the sector has faced serious problems in the regulatory/political front and huge financial losses in all electricity segments, resulting in a significant increase in systematic risk. The main sector’s events and their side-effects were analyzed in this work. In order to identify factors that explain the presence of additional risk in electric utilities, this work analyzes the evolution of some electricity distributors’ betas and applied a multi-factor panel data model. The main conclusion is that regulatory instability and institutional uncertainties affects the sector`systematic risk (betas) and show evidences to support the presence of a non-diversifiable regulatory risk. On the other hand, a stable and properly regulatory framework reduces the variance of returns, reduces the betas and the required rate of return for investments in a sector that is capital intensive and long-term investment. / Este trabalho objetiva analisar o risco sistemático presente no setor de distribuição de energia elétrica, avaliar a evolução da taxa de retorno regulatória (WACC Regulatório) e identificar a presença de um prêmio de risco adicional com características de risco regulatório. O setor de distribuição de energia elétrica por seguir a lógica de monopólio natural é regulado pelo Estado. Nesse sentido, de forma periódica (geralmente a cada 4 anos), a agência reguladora realiza um processo de revisão tarifária com objetivo de reestabelecer o equilíbrio econômico-financeiro das concessionárias, além de promover eventuais ajustes no modelo regulatório. Em uma das etapas do processo é definida a taxa de remuneração regulatória com objetivo de remunerar o capital investido frente aos riscos assumidos pela companhia. Atualmente o setor passa pelo 4ª Ciclo de Revisão Tarifária '4CRTP', compreendendo o período de 2015 a 2019 e, ao contrário dos dois primeiros processos, a ANEEL não inclui o componente de risco regulatório na formação do custo de capital próprio. Entretanto, o Sistema Elétrico Brasileiro, apesar dos avanços com a criação e consolidação do modelo institucional, tem enfrentado graves problemas e elevadas perdas financeiras em todos os segmentos. Com falhas de implementação, os esforços governamentais geraram problemas ainda mais severos, culminado com aumento significativo do risco sistemático. Os principais acontecimentos e seus efeitos foram analisados neste trabalho. De forma a identificar fatores que explicam a presença adicional de risco nas empresas de energia elétrica, foi analisada a evolução das medidas de risco sistemáticos (betas) de algumas empresas do setor elétrico e aplicado um modelo econométrico de regressão de multi-fatores em dados em painel. A principal conclusão é que a instabilidade regulatória e insegurança institucional afeta o risco sistemático das empresas (betas) e torna evidente a presença de um risco regulatório não diversificável. Por outro lado, uma regulação feita de forma adequada reduz a variância dos retornos, reduz os betas e a taxa de retorno requerida para investimentos em um setor que é intensivo em capital e de longo prazo.

Trenden med hållbara investeringar har vuxit sig starkare och intressenter ställer krav på etiskt företagande och söker möjligheter till hållbara investeringar. Fenomenet ESG, miljö (E), sociala aspekter (S) och bolagsstyrning (G), är ett av få medel som bedömer och jämför hållbart företagande. Konstruktionen av ESG betyg har förändrats, förr bedömde detta hur väl företag arbetade med hållbarhetsaspekterna, numera fokuseras betygen snarare kring företags exponering mot dessa aspekter. Detta har lett till att ämnet har fått ökad relevans för marknadsaktörer. Tidigare forskning har genererat tvetydiga resultat inom ämnet. Inom denna kontext ämnar uppsatsen undersöka huruvida ESG kan minska den systematiska risken. Detta i syfte att se om hållbarhets beaktning kan ge investerare fördelar i form av lägre risk inom en aktieportfölj. Detta har genomförts med en kvantitativ metod då statistiska tester har tillämpats i syfte att undersöka sambandet mellan betavärde och ESG betyg. Resultaten visade ett statistiskt samband för det allmänna ESG betyget för företagen inom EU, dock ett positivt samband vilket indikerar att högre ESG betyg korrelerar med högre systematisk risk. Vidare diskuteras geografiska skillnader för stora företag inom EU och USA. Trots de icke signifikanta sambanden för företagen inom USA, observerades en negativ korrelation vilket öppnar upp för en diskussion huruvida marknadskrafter eller statliga ingripanden är vägen framåt för hållbara investeringar. / The trend of sustainable investment has been steadily increasing, and stakeholders request both sustainable practices from companies and ways to make sustainable investments. ESG, environmental social and governance, offers one of few ways to judge and compare sustainable business practice. The shift in constructing ESG scores, going from a metric describing a company's sustainable performance to being centered around risk exposure, has led to the area being of higher relevance for market practitioners. Previous research has generated ambiguous results regarding the area. In this context this paper aims to examine whether ESG considerations can minimize systematic risk, resulting in benefits for investors. This is done through a quantitative methodology with a regression analysis in search for a connection between beta value (proxy for systematic risk) and ESG scores (provided by Refinitiv). The results show a statistically significant correlation between the global ESG score and beta within the EU region. However, the correlation was positive, indicating that higher ESG scores gives higher systematic risk. Furthermore, the paper discusses the indicated geographical differences between the examined regions of large cap companies in the EU and USA. Despite the non-significant results from the USA sample, the observed negative correlation can spark a debate whether market power or government involvement is the way forward within sustainable investments.

With the substantial size of the interest rate markets, the importance of accurate pricing, risk measurement and performance attribution can not be understated. However, the models used on the markets often have underlying issues with capturing the market's fundamental behavior. With this thesis, we aim to improve the pricing, risk measurement, and performance attribution of interest rate swap portfolios. The paper is divided into six main parts, by subject, to aid in achieving these goals. To begin with, we validate all cash flows with SEB to increase the validity of the results. Next, we implement an optimization-based model developed by Jörgen Blomvall to estimate multiple yield curves.  By considering innovations of the daily in-sample curves, risk factors are computed with principal component analysis. These risk factors are then used to simulate one-day and ten-day ahead scenarios for the multiple yield curves using a Monte Carlo method. Given these simulated scenarios, risk measures are then computed. When backtested, these risk measurements give an indication on the overall accuracy of the methodology, including the estimated curves, the derived risk factors, and the simulation methodology. Along with the simulation, on each out-of-sample day, monetary performance attribution for the portfolios is also performed. The performance attribution indicates what drives the value change in the portfolio. This can be used in order to evaluate the estimated yield curves and derived risk factors. The risk measurement and performance attribution is done for three different portfolios of interest rate swaps on the EUR, USD, and SEK markets. However, the risk factors are only estimated for EUR data and used for all portfolios.  The main difference to previous work in this area is that, for all implementations, a multiple yield curve environment is studied. Different PCA algorithms are evaluated to increase the precision and speed of the risk factor calculation. Mean reverting risk factors are developed in the simulation framework, along with a Latin hypercube sampling method accounting for dependence in the random variables to reduce variance. We also study the EUR and SEK markets, while the focus in previous literature is on the USD market. Lastly, we calculate and backtest the risk measures value-at-risk and expected shortfall for one-day and ten-day horizons. Four different PCA methods are implemented, a bidiagonal divide and conquer SVD algorithm, a randomized SVD method, an Arnoldi method, and an optimization-based PCA algorithm. We opt to use the first one due to high accuracy and the ability to calculate all eigenpairs. However, we recommend to use the Arnoldi method in future implementations and to further study the optimization-based method. The Latin hypercube sampling with dependence method is able to produce random variables with the same correlation as the input variables. In the simulation, we are able to produce results that pass all backtests for the risk measures considering the USD portfolio. For the EUR and SEK portfolios, it is shown that the risk measures are too conservative. The results of the mean reversion method indicate that it produces slightly less conservative estimates for the ten-day horizon. In the performance attribution, we show that we are able to produce results with small error terms, therefore indicating accurately estimated term structures, risk factors, and pricing. We conclude that we are partly able to fulfill the stated purpose of this thesis due to having produced accurate pricing and satisfactory performance attribution results for all portfolios, and stable risk measures for the USD portfolio. However, it is not possible to state with certainty that improved risk measurements have been achieved for the EUR and SEK portfolios. Although, we present several alternative approaches to remedy this in future implementations.

No description available.

In the literature, the impact of multinationality on the valuation of multinational companies is heavily debated. To understand this impact on valuation, we need to clarify whether and how multinationality affects systematic risk. For this purpose, we analyze the state of research concerning the impact of corporate multinationality on systematic risk, conducting a systematic literature review of 35 studies and a univariate meta-analysis based on 20 studies. We test the predictions of the upstream–downstream hypothesis and the increasing capital market integration hypothesis on the basis of a meta-regression analysis of 17 studies. Our results provide no empirical support for the upstream–downstream hypothesis. However, they corroborate the capital market integration hypothesis in a more radical manner than expected: whereas multinationality seemed to have a risk-reducing effect until the beginning of the 1990s, since then its impact appears to have shifted. We find a risk-increasing effect for multinationality from 1990 on. Our results have important implications for academic research and managerial practice.

Die studie vergelyk die prestasie van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie met die van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie binne die raamwerk van die arbitrasie-prysbepalingsteorie (APT) op die nywerheidsindeks van die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs (JA). Die periode van die studie is oor twee tydperke, naamlik Januarie 1970 tot September 1987 en Januarie 1989 tot Junie 1997. Die langtermyntendens van die nywerheidsindeks en APT-faktore is bepaal deur die beste nie-reglynige model vir elke tydreeks te vind. Reglynige meervoudige stapsgewyse regressie-ontleding is gebruik om die bewegings van die nywerheidsindeks rondom die langtermyntendens te voorspel. Die sloeringsreekse van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APT-faktore en die sloeringsreekse van die eerste-ordeverskiltelling van die langtermyntendensresidutelling is as moontlike voorspellers gebruik. Gegrond hierop is beslissingslyne ontwik:kel wat gebruik is vir die implementering van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie. Die resultate van die studie is die volgende: • Waar die sloeringsreekse van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APTfaktore as moontlike voorspellers gebruik is, is die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie 6, 41 persent en 0, 71 persent b6 die van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie vir tydperk een en twee onderskeidelik. • Waar die sloeringsreekse van die eerste-ordeverskiltelling van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APT-faktore as moontlike voorspellers gebruik is, is die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie 10,40 persent en 1,04 persent b6 die van 'n koop-enhou- strategie vir tydperk een en twee onderskeidelik. Die belangrikste gevolgtrekking van die studie is dat die APT en 'n tydsberekeningstrategie teoreties en prakties versoenbaar is op die JA. Aanbevelings vir toekomstige navorsing is die volgende: ( 1) sistematiese risikofaktore, anders as makro-ekonomiese faktore, behoort identifiseer te word wat die voorspellingswaarde van die faktore in die tweede tydperk van die studie kan verhoog; (2) elke stap van die model wat ontwikkel is, behoort op elke indeks van die JA toegepas te word om die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie toegepas op elkeen van die indekse met die van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie te vergelyk; en (3) die invloed van transaksiekoste en dividende op die potensiele voordele van tydsberekening moet bepaal word. / The study compares the performance of a buy-and-hold strategy with that of a markettiming strategy in the framework of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) applied to the industrial index of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The study period is divided into two parts, namely January 1970 to September 1987 and January 1989 to June 1997. The long-term trend of the industrial index and every APT factor is determined by finding the best nonlinear model for each time series. Linear multiple stepwise regression analysis, with the lagged time series of the long-term trend error terms of the APT factors, is used to forecast the movement of the industrial index around its long-term trend. Decision lines were developed to implement a market-timing strategy. The results of the study are as follows: • Where the lagged time series of the long-term trend error terms of the APT factors were used as possible predictors, the risk-adjusted return of a markettiming strategy was 6, 41 percent and 0, 71 percent higher than that of a buyand- hold strategy for periods one and two respectively. • Where the lagged time series of the first-order difference of the long-term trend error term of the APT factors were used as possible predictors, the riskadjusted return of the market-timing strategy was 10,40 percent and 1,04 percent higher than that of a buy-and-hold strategy for periods one and two respectively. The main conclusion of the study is that the APT and a market-timing strategy are theoretically and practically reconcilable on the JSE. The main recommendations of the study are the following: (1) systematic risk factors, other than macroeconomic factors, should be identified in order to increase the forecasting value of these factors in the second period of the study; (2) each step of the model developed in this study should be repeated on every index of the JSE; and (3) the influence of transaction costs and dividends on the potential benefits of a market-timing strategy should be determined. / Business Management / DCom (Sakebestuur)