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Arbetslöshetsförsäkringen och individen : en studie om krav, skyldigheter och hänsyn ur perspektivet geografisk rörlighetDanielsson, Maria January 2008 (has links)
<p>This paper describes the rules of the Swedish unemployment insurance as regards the demands on the individual, the obligation posed on the individual based on these demands and the considerations taken by the law regarding the specific situation and personal circumstances of the individual. Special attention is paid to the demand to be available to the labour market and what is considered suitable employment from the viewpoint of geographical mobility. This paper treats “Arbetslinjen” (Everyone able to work, thereby contributing to his/her own and others' support, shall have the opportunity to do so.), and the amendments of ALF, the law (1997:238) about unemployment insurance, that became active between 1/1 2007 and 1/1 2008, since many alterations were introduced in this period.</p><p>The result illustrates the demands posed on the individual for him/her to be entitled to unemployment benefit, and the far-reaching demands posed on the unemployed for him/her to be considered available to the labour market from the viewpoint of geographical mobility. The result also shows some of the specific situations and personal circumstances of the individual taken into consideration, but since the amendments are as recent as 1.5 years, the list can not be considered complete, as practice is limited in this field.</p><p>This paper also treats the Official Employment Agency's monitoring function of the unemployed's willingness to work, and the effect of the regulations not being followed as strictly as per the letter of the law by the Employment Agency officers, leading to insecurity regarding the rights of the individual.</p> / <p>Denna uppsats beskriver reglerna i den svenska arbetslöshetsförsäkringen vad det gäller de krav som ställs på individen, de skyldigheter som åligger individen utifrån dessa krav och den hänsyn lagstiftningen tar till individuella förutsättningar och personliga förhållanden. Särskild uppmärksamhet fästs vid kraven att stå till arbetsmarknadens förfogande och vad som är ett lämpligt arbete utifrån perspektivet geografisk rörlighet. Uppsatsen behandlar Arbetslinjen och de ändringar i ALF som trätt i kraft mellan den 1 januari 2007 och den 1 januari 2008 eftersom en mängd förändringar införts under denna tid. Resultatet belyser några av de krav som ställs på den enskilde för att han eller hon skall ha rätt till arbetslöshetsersättning samt de långtgående krav som ställs för att den arbetssökande skall anses stå till arbetsmarknadens förfogande utifrån perspektivet geografisk rörlighet. Resultatet belyser också några av de hänsyn som tas till individuella förutsättningar och personliga förhållanden, men eftersom förändringarna inte är äldre än 1,5 år kan listan inte sägas vara uttömmande då praxis är begränsad inom området. I uppsatsen behandlas även Arbetsförmedlingens kontrollfunktion av de arbetssökandes arbetsvilja och några effekter av att regelverket inte efterlevs så strikt som lagen säger bland arbetsförmedlarna, vilket leder till en rättsosäkerhet för individen.</p>
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Essays on Macroeconomics and HealthLaun, Tobias January 2012 (has links)
This thesis consists of four independent papers covering macroeconomic topics such as unemployment insurance, retirement, business cycles and disability insurance. The unifying theme connecting all papers is the importance of health when addressing these issues. The first paper derives the optimal insurance against unemployment and disability in a setting where individuals can determine the probability of becoming disabled by exerting prevention effort. The second paper develops a life cycle model of labor supply and retirement to study the interactions between health and the labor supply behavior of older workers, in particular disability insurance and retirement. The third paper looks at the role of health in a business cycle framework. Here, health is treated as an asset that generates time and utility. The last paper derives a theoretical model of the application decision for disability benefits and proposes an empirical strategy for measuring screening stringency in the disability insurance program. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Stockholm School of Economics, 2012. Introduction together with 4 papers</p>
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Challenges of Reforming the Welfare StateArent, Stefan 25 November 2014 (has links) (PDF)
In the first part of this doctoral thesis we analyse changes in old-age income risk in Germany using micro-simulation model due to changes in employment patterns and institutional reforms. We focus on the statutory pension scheme and we analyse the old-age income risk of individuals as well as of households with respect to the skill level. Our findings help to clarify the risk of post-retirement poverty for specific household constellations We find that the risk of old-age poverty will increase for almost all new pensioners in 2020-2022 compared to new pensioners in 2004-2006. Due to the characteristics of a PAYG pension system, political decision-makers have to improve labour market participation, e.g. by support the improvement of skill level.
Moreover we take a closer look at the impact of the Hartz-Reforms on wages. We use panel data to estimate the effect of the structural break on wages and find strong evidence that the decrease in unemployment benefit lowered wages. Our findings show that the Hartz-Reform induced wage restraint and may also be partly responsible for the favourable labour market situation in Germany.
After analysing the effect of institutional reforms on old-age income and wage, we examine whether households adjust their savings behaviour to a change in their individual unemployment, income and health expectations. We use survey panel data on German household savings and expectations. The findings suggest, in contrast to the theory of textbook models, that a higher unemployment expectation significantly decreases the (short-term) saving rate. This result may be due to labour market legislation after the Hartz-Reforms.
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我國就業保險制度之研究林苑婷, Lin ,Yuan-ting Unknown Date (has links)
失業為工業社會不可避免之問題,失業不僅影響勞工個人,亦衝擊其全家生活。為了保障勞工及其撫養家屬於失業期間之基本生活,大多數國家都設有失業補償制度,如失業保險、失業救助、離職公積金、資遣費等,其中以失業保險制度為最多國家所採行。
近年來,國內失業率攀升,日益嚴重的失業問題使得各方要求建立失業保險制度之聲浪再度高漲,政府終於在民國88年開辦「勞工保險失業給付實施辦法」,將延宕多年的失業給付諸施行。而為了整合失業給付、職業訓練與就業服務體系,勞委會邀集相關單位研擬就業保險法草案,於91年立法院三讀通過,並於92年元旦實施。
本文即以我國就業保險法為研究對象,並以ILO第168號公約為基準檢視我國就業保險法、以美國及加拿大之就業保險制度做為借鏡,試圖歸納出我國就業保險法制未來改革應遵循的方向即可避免的錯誤。本文研究結果,對我國就業保險法提出以下幾點建議:
一、參照公約及美加制度,逐步擴大適用範圍。
二、請領條件方面:擴大「非自願離職」之內涵,將非因經濟、技術、結構或類似性質等特定因素之離職情況納入考量;參照公約規定,增加評估推介就業是否合理的考量因素;考量就業服務機構推介就業的效率及勞工所能承受經濟壓力的期限,訂定較符合公約要求的等待期;加強失業再認定的查核作業。
三、保險給付改採彈性給付級距制,對於低所得者給予較高之給付替代率,以確保其能維持基本生活,並達所得重分配之效果。
四、刪除提早就業獎助津貼。
五、改善職訓與就服體系,推廣單一窗口服務制度。
六、加強投保薪資之查核作業,讓給付更能符合失業勞工生活所需。
七、參照公約及美加兩國制度,採取失業給付與資遣費相互抵償之作法,讓失業給付照顧真正需要者,減少資源浪費。
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Repeated moral hazard and recursive lagrangeans: theory and applicationsMele, Antonio 30 July 2009 (has links)
Esta tesis elabora una caracterización teórica de problemas de agencia dinámicos, basada en métodos recursivos duales. Respecto a las actuales estrategias de solución, la mayor ventaja de mi método es la posibilidad de analizar modelos complicados con muchas variables de estado, como es el caso en muchas situaciones macroeconómicas. El primer Capitulo introduce la metodología y presenta algunos ejemplos numéricos. El segundo Capitulo caracteriza contratos óptimos de participación al riesgo, en los dos casos de economía de dotación y de economía con producción, y demuestra que el método es muy simple en su aplicación a estos problemas. El tercer Capitulo analiza el seguro óptimo de desempleo bajo diferentes supuestos sobre el acceso al mercado financiero y la evolución del capital humano. / This thesis elaborates a theoretical characterization of general dynamic agency problems based on recursive duality methods. With respect to current solution strategies, the main advantage of my approach is the possibility to analyze complicated models with many state variables, as it is the case in several macroeconomic situations. The first Chapter introduces the methodology and provides some numerical example. The second Chapter provides a characterization of optimal risk sharing contracts both in endowment and production economies, and shows how the approach is easy to apply to these problems. The third Chapter analyzes optimal unemployment insurance under different assumptions on access to financial markets and human capital trends.
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Challenges of Reforming the Welfare State: Four Essays on the Impact of Institutional Reforms on Individuals in GermanyArent, Stefan 08 April 2014 (has links)
In the first part of this doctoral thesis we analyse changes in old-age income risk in Germany using micro-simulation model due to changes in employment patterns and institutional reforms. We focus on the statutory pension scheme and we analyse the old-age income risk of individuals as well as of households with respect to the skill level. Our findings help to clarify the risk of post-retirement poverty for specific household constellations We find that the risk of old-age poverty will increase for almost all new pensioners in 2020-2022 compared to new pensioners in 2004-2006. Due to the characteristics of a PAYG pension system, political decision-makers have to improve labour market participation, e.g. by support the improvement of skill level.
Moreover we take a closer look at the impact of the Hartz-Reforms on wages. We use panel data to estimate the effect of the structural break on wages and find strong evidence that the decrease in unemployment benefit lowered wages. Our findings show that the Hartz-Reform induced wage restraint and may also be partly responsible for the favourable labour market situation in Germany.
After analysing the effect of institutional reforms on old-age income and wage, we examine whether households adjust their savings behaviour to a change in their individual unemployment, income and health expectations. We use survey panel data on German household savings and expectations. The findings suggest, in contrast to the theory of textbook models, that a higher unemployment expectation significantly decreases the (short-term) saving rate. This result may be due to labour market legislation after the Hartz-Reforms.:1 Introduction 1
1.1 Summary 3
1.2 Contribution to the literature 7
1.3 References 9
2 A Fragile Pillar: Statutory Pensions and the Risk of Old-age Poverty in Germany 11
2.1 Introduction 11
2.2 The German Statutory Pension Insurance 13
2.3 Methodology 16
2.4 Results 22
2.4.1 Male pensioners 22
2.4.2 Female pensioners 25
2.4.3 Relevance of skill 27
2.5 Sensitivity Analysis 31
2.6 Conclusion 34
2.7 References 37
2.8 Appendix 40
3 Is There a Growing Risk of Old-age Poverty in Eastern Germany? 44
3.1 Introduction 44
3.2 The German Pension System 46
3.3 Demographic Setting in Eastern Germany 48
3.4 Data and Methodology 49
3.5 Single-person Households 52
3.5.1 Males 52
3.5.2 Females 55
II
3.6 Two-Person-Households 57
3.7 Widows 62
3.8 Conclusion 64
3.9 References 65
3.10 Appendix 66
4 Unemployment Compensation and Wages: Evidence from the German Hartz-Reform 68
4.1 Introduction 68
4.2 The German Hartz-Reform 69
4.3 Data 71
4.4 Methodology 73
4.5 Results 76
4.6 Conclusions 82
4.7 References 84
4.8 Data 87
4.9 Appendix 88
5 Expectations and Saving Behavior: An Empirical Analysis 93
5.1 Introduction 93
5.2 Theoretical Discussion 95
5.3 Data 97
5.4 Empirical Strategy 100
5.5 Empirical Results 104
5.6 Conclusions 114
5.7 References 117
5.8 Data 119
5.9 Appendix 120
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Essays in Public EconomicsCoombs, Kyle January 2023 (has links)
This dissertation consists of three essays in public economics. The three chapters focus on interactions between public and private economic decisions. The first two chapters focus on unemployment insurance (UI) policy in the United States. The third discusses public-private interactions in the education market.
The first chapter, a joint work with Arindrajit Dube, Calvin Jahnke, Raymond Kluender, Suresh Naidu, and Michael Stepner estimates the labor supply and spending responses to a large change in UI benefits during the pandemic. We examine the effects of the sudden withdrawal of expanded pandemic unemployment benefits in June 2021 using anonymized bank transaction data for 16,548 individuals receiving UI in April 2021. Comparing the difference in differences between states withdrawing and retaining expanded UI, we find that UI receipt falls 35 p.p. while employment rises by only 4.4 p.p. by early August. Average cumulative UI benefits fall by $1,385 while average cumulative earnings increase by only $93. Heterogeneity by unemployment duration implies that these effects are primarily driven by extensive margin expiration of benefits, rather than intensive margin reductions in the benefit level.
The second chapter examines the role of gifts and loans from friends and family during unemployment. These transfers play a largely unstudied informal insurance role in high-income countries, making it difficult to assess their implications for social insurance policy. I present new results on informal insurance paid via person-to-person (P2P) payment platforms using a survey-linked administrative bank transaction dataset covering 130,502 low-income users from the US who were unemployed at least once between July 2019 and September 2020. Event study estimates show average monthly inflows from all P2P platforms increase by $30, or 2% of lost earnings, one month after job loss before returning to baseline over 10 months. Single mothers and the long-term unemployed receive the largest increases, as do those living in high-income areas. I exploit three plausibly exogenous changes to federal pandemic unemployment insurance (UI) policy to estimate that UI benefits crowd out at most $0.04 of informal P2P transfers. Using the social insurance framework introduced in Chetty & Saz (2010), my crowd-out estimates indicate negligible welfare consequences for an additional dollar of benefits. Altogether these results imply that public UI benefits can raise welfare by pooling risk across networks without reducing within-network targeting of informal insurance.
The third chapter asks whether public school services fill in gaps left by private school failures. Specifically, it explores what type of schools enter the market and experience an increase in enrollment after reports of abuse by Catholic priests lead to Catholic Schools closures. I use a two-way fixed effects event study method to estimate a change in enrollments and number of different types of schools after a report of priest abuse within the same zip code, school district, or county. I find there are 0.2 fewer Catholic schools and Catholic school enrollment falls by 75 students after six years, which are offset by a 0.2 and 50-student increase in charter school counts and enrollments on average. These increases are unique to charter schools and is not observed in other public or non-Catholic private schools. Altogether, these results suggest that former Catholic schooled families show a preference for charter schools over other public schools, which may be due to the low-cost and similar emphasis on discipline and academic achievement.
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[pt] A PRODUÇÃO CIENTÍFICA SOBRE O PROGRAMA SEGURO-DESEMPREGO BRASILEIRO: TENDÊNCIAS E CONSENSOS / [en] THE SCIENTIFIC PRODUCTION ON THE BRAZILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAM: TRENDS AND CONSENSUSMOACYR SALLES RAMOS 10 December 2019 (has links)
[pt] O presente trabalho tem como objetivo refletir sobre a produção científica acerca do Programa Seguro-desemprego brasileiro (PSD). Para tal, apresentamos os fundamentos do PSD, seu modo de funcionamento e seu caráter mediador, dentro das políticas de proteção social vigentes no modo de produção capitalista. O PSD é a principal política de proteção ao trabalhador demitido no Brasil e em vários países do mundo. Sua importância está diretamente ligada ao funcionamento do mercado de trabalho e a minimização dos impactos da exploração capitalista na vida dos trabalhadores, agregando pagamento, qualificação profissional e intermediação da força de trabalho. Por tamanha envergadura, ele tem sido, desde o final dos anos 1980, objeto de diversos estudos dos mais variados campos do conhecimento, apontando assim para a necessidade de sistematização do estado do conhecimento, para que seja possível traçar um mapa analítico que facilite a compreensão e também aponte os consensos construídos. Considerando a modalidade PSD Trabalhador Formal, esta tese busca respostas para o seguinte problema: como tem sido a produção científica sobre o Programa Seguro-desemprego brasileiro e quais consensos estão sendo construídos nessas produções? Para dar conta dessas questões, realizamos uma pesquisa qualitativa, de caráter explicativo, tendo como fontes teses, dissertações e artigos sobre o PSD, no intervalo entre 1990 e 2017. Os repositórios utilizados para a busca das teses e dissertações foram o Banco de Teses da Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES), a Biblioteca Digital Brasileira de Teses e Dissertações (BDTD) e a plataforma Domínio Público. A busca pelos artigos foi feita através da EBSCOhost. Compõem o universo da pesquisa 9 teses, 12 dissertações e 13 artigos. Foi possível constatar que a maior parte dos estudos são das regiões Sudeste e Centro-oeste, oriundos de universidades federais e de programas de pós-graduação em Economia. Os temas mais abordados são a qualificação profissional e os efeitos adversos do pagamento. Há consenso de que a qualificação profissional compulsória no PSD gera aumento do capital humano e empregabilidade, posição teórica que culpabiliza os trabalhadores pelo desemprego e com a qual esta tese não corrobora. Há, porém, os que entendem que a qualificação, da forma como está posta, além de não garantir emprego, ainda contribui para a retirada de direitos. Quanto ao pagamento, há consenso de que o trabalhador está suscetível ao risco moral, tendendo a criar situações para ter acesso às parcelas do PSD e a se acomodar enquanto as recebe. Diante disso, alguns estudos defendem regressão das parcelas, estratégias de controle do esforço, utilização do tempo do trabalhador para qualificação e maior efetividade dos serviços de intermediação como soluções para o risco moral. Percebe-se que o PSD tem sido analisado a partir de um forte viés de controle e exploração da força de trabalho, bem como redução de direitos e obtenção do consenso em torno de uma visão de mundo em que o programa não é entendido como um direito social. / [en] This paper aims to reflect on the scientific production about the Brazilian Unemployment Insurance Program (PSD). To this end, we present the fundamentals of the PSD, its mode of operation and its mediating character, within the social protection policies in force in the capitalist mode of production. The PSD is the main policy to protect the laid-off worker in Brazil and in several countries of the world. Its importance is directly linked to the functioning of the labor market and the minimization of the impacts of capitalist exploitation on workers lives, adding pay, professional qualification and workforce intermediation. For such a large extent, it has been, since the late 1980s, the object of several studies from various fields of knowledge, thus pointing to the need for systematization of the state of knowledge, so that it is possible to draw an analytical map that facilitates understanding and also point out the consensus built. Considering the PSD Formal Worker modality, this thesis seeks answers to the following problem: how has the scientific production been about the Brazilian Unemployment Insurance Program and what consensus is being built on these productions? To address these issues, we conducted a qualitative, explanatory research, using as sources theses, dissertations and articles on the PSD, between 1990 and 2017. The repositories used to search for theses and dissertations were the Bank of Theses of Higher Education Personnel Improvement Coordination (CAPES), the Brazilian Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations (BDTD) and the Public Domain platform. The search for articles was done through EBSCOhost. The research universe comprises 9 theses, 12 dissertations and 13 articles. Most studies are from the Southeast and Midwest, coming from federal universities and postgraduate programs in Economics. The most discussed topics are professional qualification and the adverse effects of payment. There is consensus that the compulsory professional qualification in the PSD generates increased human capital and employability, a theoretical position that blames workers for unemployment and with which this thesis does not corroborate. However, there are those who understand that qualification, as it stands, in addition to not guaranteeing employment, also contributes to the withdrawal of rights. Regarding payment, there is consensus that the worker is susceptible to moral hazard, tending to create situations to access the portions of the PSD and to accommodate while receiving them. Given this, some studies advocate plot regression, effort control strategies, use of worker time for qualification and greater effectiveness of intermediation services as solutions to moral hazard. It is clear that the PSD has been analyzed from a strong control and exploitation bias of the workforce, as well as reduction of rights and consensus building around a world view in which the program is not understood as a social right.
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The Politics ofPolicy Transformation: A Comparative Analysis of Child Care and Unemployment Insurance in Canada and IrelandGrace, Joan 03 1900 (has links)
<p>This study is an exploration of why policy outcomes in the sectors of child care and unemployment insurance, between the time period 1972 to 1996, did not meet the policy goals of the National Action Committee on the Status of Women (NAC) in Canada and the National Women's Council of lreland (NWCI). Specifically, this study sought to explain why successive governments in Canada and Ireland persistently resisted the implementation of policy goals put forth by NAC and NWCI in the sectors of child care and unemployment insurance, or when they did respond, policy outcomes had differential impacts on women. With this in mind, the overall research question of this study was: What happened to the policy goals ofNAC and NWCI once they were articulated to government?</p> <p>In order to answer this question, this study merged the theoretics of historical institutionalism with feminist political economy into a theoretical framework I have termed feminist-institutionalism. This framework was applied to argue that policy institutions (as mediators and containers ofgendered social relations) redefine feminist policy goals articulated by women's groups to government into gendered policy outcomes that often undermine the original intent of those goals. I have called this process of redefinition policy transformation. By employing a framework of analysis three spheres of policy transformation -this study comparatively maps out the processes, institutions and factors within the macro-political policy context which contributed to an overall lack of success on the part of NAC and NWCI in the realization of their child care and unemployment insurance policy goals. One of the conclusions of this study is that NAC and NWCI were equally unsuccessful even given stark differences between macro-political institutional structures and interest representation systems in Canada and Ireland.</p> / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
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Falling through the cracks : income security and the South African social security systemBredenkamp, Caryn 03 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This thesis focuses on the extent to which the South African social security system
succeeds in providing protection in the vulnerable periods of the life-cycle and against
the major contingencies of unemployment, disability and disease. Through a detailed
examination of the different social insurance and assistance programmes, it isolates
which particular population segments (by occupation, income quintile and race group)
"fall through the cracks" in the provision of income security. It does not look only at the
articulation between different social insurance and social assistance programmes, but also
acknowledges how social security complements other governmental interventions, such
as social services, and non-state sources of income security, such as those provided by the
private insurance market and the family and community.
Part One of the thesis is devoted to an examination of social insurance in South Africa, in
other words, to those programmes that seek to compensate for a loss of income in the
event of particular contingencies and that are funded by contributions from employers
and employees. In addition, theoretical perspectives on social security, and social
insurance in particular, are provided, with a discussion of the various economic
arguments in favour of and against the provision of social security.
Part Two of the thesis examines the range of non-contributory social assistance - cash
benefits paid form general revenue - that are available to South Africans who qualify in
terms of the means tests. Each chapter provides an analysis of the extent to which the
social assistance programme under analysis provides a safety net for the relevant category of vulnerable people. It does this by examining the appropriateness of the programme
structure, take-up rates and the fiscal sustainability of the programmes. In addition, the
budgetary process by which revenue is allocated to social assistance programmes and
expenditure trends are examined.
The thesis concludes that although the South African social security system has achieved
a fairly advanced level of development and covers a fairly wide range of risks, there are a
number of constraints facing its further expansion. Social insurance schemes provide
generous benefits, but their membership is restricted to the employed. Expanding
coverage by social insurance would require substantial growth in remunerative
employment which, given prevailing labour market conditions, seems unlikely. The
provision of more generous social assistance programmes catering for a broader range of
contingencies is severely curtailed by already high fiscal expenditure on welfare and
macroeconomic constraints. Moreover, changing demography, household structures and
dependency burdens, especially as the HIV/AIDS epidemic spreads, seem likely to
increase demands on social assistance programmes. Consequently, until employment can
be expanded so that more people can contribute to their own income security, the
informal social security provided by the family and/or community will remain the first
line of support for many. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie tesis word gefokus op die mate waartoe die Suid-Afrikaanse
bestaansbeveiligingstelsel daarin slaag om ondersteuning tydens kwesbare periodes in die
lewensiklus en beskerming teen groot gebeurlikhede soos werkloosheid, ongeskiktheid of
langdurige siekte te bied. Daardie bevolkingsegmente (volgens beroep, inkomstegroep of
ras) wat nie volledig toegang tot inkomstesekuriteit het nie, word uitgesonder deur 'n
gedetaileerde ondersoek van die verskillende maatskaplike versekerings- en
bystandsprogramme. Daar word ook gekyk na die artikulasie tussen die verskillende
programme sowel as na hoe ander regeringsintervensies (bv. verskaffing van
maatskaplike dienste) en private bronne van inkomstesekuriteit - verskaf deur die privaat
versekeringsmark, die gemeenskap en die familie - deur maatskaplike bystand aangevul
word.
Deel Een word gewyaan 'n ondersoek van maatskaplike versekering in Suid-Afrika -
daardie programme wat vir inkomsteverlies weens spesifieke gebeurlikhede probeer
kompenseer en wat tipies deur bydraes van werkgewers en werknemers befonds word.
Teoretiese perspektiewe op bestaansbeveiliging in die algemeen en maatskaplike
versekering in besonder word ook verskaf en argumente vir en teen die verskaffing van
bestaansbeveiliging word bespreek. Deel Twee ondersoek die reeks nie-bydraende bestaansbeveiligingsprogramme wat uit
algemene owerheidsinkomste befonds word, asook bestedingstendense in maatskaplike
bystand.
Die tesis kom tot die gevolgtrekking dat, alhoewel Suid-Afrikaanse bestaansbeveiliging
'n redelik gevorderde vlak van ontwikkeling bereik het en 'n wye reeks risiko's dek, daar
'n aantal beperkinge op verdere uitbreiding is. Maatskaplike versekeringskemas bied
uitgebreide voordele, maar lidmaatskap is tot indiensgeneemdes beperk. Uitbreiding van
dekking vereis beduidende groei in formele indiensneming, wat onwaarskynlik lyk,
gegewe huidige arbeidsmarktendense. Die verskaffing van gunstiger maatskaplike
bystandsprogramme gemik op meer gebeurlikhede word ernstig deur reeds hoë fiskale
uitgawes op welsyn en deur makroekonomiese oorweginge beperk. Verder sal
veranderende demografiese strukture, huishoudingstrukture en afhanklikheidslaste, veral
teen die agtergrond van die toename in HIVNIGS, aansprake op maatskaplike
bystandsprogramme vergroot. Gevolglik sal die informele inkomstesekuriteit gebied deur
die familie en/of gemeenskap die eerste of enigste ondersteuning vir groot dele van die
bevolking bly, totdat indiensneming genoeg uitgebrei kan word sodat meer mense tot hul
eie inkomstesekuriteit kan bydra.
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