本文即擬對抗戰時期專賣事業的實施過程，及其與國家財政之關係，加以探討分析。由於專賣屬獨占事業， 國內外史學界研究此一課題的文章極少，相關史料亦多未刊行，故本文撰寫時引用之參考資料， 以檔案為主。計有：國史館典藏之國民政府檔案、財政部檔案； 中央研究院近代史研究所典藏之鹽務檔案；中國南京第二歷史檔案館典藏之財政部檔案、火柴專賣公司檔案、菸類專賣局檔案、專賣事業管理局檔案等。 另輔以已整編刊行之史料、中外文著作等。全文除緒論和結論外，共分七章，其主要內容如下：第一章緒論：論述專賣事業在中國發展的過程 ，及目前國內外研究此一課題之成果、研究方法、問題徵結所在。第二章戰時專賣事業實施背景：以戰時財政赤字與通貨膨脹 、戰時統制政策的形成為主題 ，論述抗戰時期專賣事業實施之背景。第三章戰時專賣事業之籌辦： 論述戰時專賣事業之規畫、制訂與推行的過程。第四章火柴與菸類專賣之產製運銷： 分二節，敘述火柴及菸類專賣之實施，係採用「局部專賣制」，由民間產製後，再經由專賣機構 「統購統銷」。第五章食糖與鹽專賣之產製運銷：論述戰時食糖專賣之產銷制度 ，亦採「民產－民製－官收－民銷」之局部專賣制。 鹽專賣方面，由於實施專賣之前，政府已實施「官收－官運」制度， 為專賣奠定基礎，故各專賣品中，鹽專賣之產銷制度最健全。第六章各專賣物品之專賣價格與特徵：專賣價格合理與否 ，為專賣物品能否順利產銷關鍵， 戰時各專賣品之專賣價格由「專賣品成本＋專賣利益＋商人之合法利潤」決定，但因各專賣物品多屬民生消費品， 為顧及人民生計起見，其價格多較一般市價為低。第七章專賣與緝私：凡未依專賣法規定而擅自產製運銷者 ，即屬走私行為，應予以查緝。戰時專賣物品之走私案件 ，除不法商人圖謀私利外，專賣事業人員從中營私舞弊亦時有所聞。第八章專賣之成效與評估： 論述專賣事業之專賣利益與戰時財政關係，及其對國家社會之影響 ，從而了解戰時專賣事業實施之成效與得失。第九章結論：戰時專賣事業實施雖僅四年 ，卻充分顯現統制經濟特色，而專賣利益亦有助於財政收入。

不動產法拍屋市場中，是否受到總體經濟環境變化或金融風暴來襲，而影響拍定價相對於第一拍底價之比率？是本研究所探討的課題。除上述總體經濟因素外，是否尚有其他因素如法拍屋個別屬性影響拍定價對底價比？本文藉由上述各項因素存在與否，探討法拍屋拍定價對底價比和各變數間之關係，得以建立法拍屋拍定價對底價比之變數模型。 本研究以特徵價格理論探討影響台北市士林區法拍屋拍定價對底價比之變數，並以迴歸分析方法分析影響法拍屋拍定價對底價比之因素，及其影響程度，並藉此探討當市場發生重大金融事件或總體經濟環境變化時，是否影響法拍屋之拍定價對底價比。實證結果發現：影響法拍屋拍定價對底價比之顯著變數如下： 一、法拍屋個別屬性：是否為一樓、競標數呈正相關，屋齡呈先負後正曲線關係，拍定次數呈負相關。 二、總體經濟變數：拍定前月放款利率、拍定前季是否經濟衰退或金融風暴呈負相關。 本文探討影響法拍屋拍定價對底價比之變數，研究結果期能提供地方法院訂定第一拍底價及酌減各拍次底價之參考、投標人決定投標價及選擇最佳進場時機之參考、地方法院委託之不動產鑑定人於法拍屋估價時，價格調整幅度權衡的參考、以及債權人決定是否執行及續拍之參考。 / Real estate markets are affected by macro economic factors, regional factors and individual factors. As there is recession in economy growth, the number of foreclosed properties increased. How are the prices of foreclosed properties influenced by the aforementioned factors? This study intends to explore factors affecting the ratio of the final transaction price to the listed base price in the real estate auction markets through the Hedonic Price Model. Results show that the first-floor effect, number of bidders and age of the buildings are positively related to the ratio of the final transaction price to the listed base price in the real estate auction markets. Numbers of auctions, interest rates, and the occurrence of the financial crisis in the previous season are negatively related to the ratio of the final transaction price to the listed base price. Results of this study provide precious reference value on formulating the listed base prices on the real estate auction markets. Investors can also take into account of the significant factors in making the investment decision in the auction market.

本研究主係探討以投資者持有本國股票作為基礎投資組合，利用台灣五十成份股投資組合及金融期貨指數之月報酬率資料形成效率前緣，然後將本研究所選取之黃金產業GOX指數或以黃金現貨價格兩種黃金商品投資組合分別加入基礎投資組合中，觀察每個投資組合標的加入前後之投資機會集合之變化，是否基礎投資組合之效率前緣進一步向左偏移，並比較其優劣。此外進一步探討在兩種黃金投資組合加入基礎投資組合，分別在股市多頭及空頭市場時會不會產生相同的效果；並且藉由中央大學台灣經濟發展研究中心所調查訂定的消費者信心指數，以中位數區分為信心指數高或信心指數低兩組情境，並將兩種黃金商品投資組合在不同的情境依序分別加入基礎投資組合中，其基礎投資組合之效率前緣是否皆仍進一步向左偏移。實證結果發現，黃金現貨帶給基礎資產投資機會集合的貢獻，明顯優於黃金產業GOX指數，當檢定資產為黃金產業GOX指數時，「切點投資組合」差異W_1統計值上皆不具統計顯著性，整體而言當黃金產業GOX指數在加入投資組合之後，我們認為大部份的效果是來自分散原有的投資組合風險；然而黃金現貨在改善投資機會集合的貢獻上，來自「最小變異數投資組合」及「切點投資組合」的改善皆有顯著的效果。

過去都市更新相關文獻中，多在分析都市更新制度與探討相關法令缺失，且多以權利變換方式探討地主權益之分配，較少以量化分析來研究都市更新協議合建分配型態，對於地主所關注合建分配比率之影響因素也未能深入研究。本研究透過文獻回顧與台北市都市更新之現況分析後，掌握可能之影響變數，藉由實證資料之蒐集與相關變數之選取，將資料進行複迴歸實證分析，以探討影響都市更新合建分配比率之顯著變數。 本研究篩選出可能影響合建分配比率之14個自變項，並排除相關係較高之土地所有權人數及建築成本兩變數後，透過複迴歸分析，結果顯示有8項達顯著性之影響因素，其中個別屬性變數包括每人土地面積、每容積公告土地現值、平均容積率、臨路寬度與臨路寬度平方、都市更新容積獎勵率、區域房價等6項達顯著性，除臨路寬度平方與都市更新合建分配比率呈負向關係外，其他皆呈正向關係，而在總體經濟變數有上一月基準利率及上一季M2年增率等2項達顯著性，其中上一月基準利率與都市更新合建分配比率呈負向關係，而上一季M2年增率與都市更新合建分配比率呈正向關係。 由實證結果得知，增加都市更新容積獎勵，確實有助提昇地主合建分配比率，因此，政府應適度調整容積獎勵項目及上限，使地主參加都市更新後，能獲得較佳之居住環境與較高之居住面積水準，甚至保障地主原居住面積水準，以增加地主參與都市更新之意願。期望政府持續大力推動都市更新政策，透過建築規劃及設計，達到改善市容、美化環境、增進公共安全及提昇居住水準等政策目的，進而達到政府、地主及開發商三贏之目標。 / Most of the past research studies on urban renewal involves analysis in the related regulations and their shortcomings. Furthermore, studies based on allocation of land owners’ equity rights are mostly done from perspective of the rules set from the government supervised appraisal process known as Rights Transformation. Few of them are conducted using the quantitative approach to derive the equity rights of the landowners from the perspective of the process known as Joint Development --- a process of private negotiation and derived terms. Thus, through analysing research articles and the current state of the urban renewal projects in Taipei, this study first intends to identify the possible variables that might affect the equity share distribution. Then using regression analysis based on the selected variables and collections of empirical data, this study explores and derives variables of significant impacts on the equity share distribution between developers and landowners in jointly developed urban renewal projects. This research has screened 14 independent variables that might have impact the equity share distribution. Results of regression analysis identify 8 significant factors, including land area per owner, government assesed land value per floor area, average floor area ratio, road width, square of road width, floor area incentive for urban renewal, and surrounding area housing value. Most of the variables have positive relationships with the landowners’ equity except for the square of road width. Macroeconomic variables such as last month’s prime interest rate and M2 growth rate in the previous quarter are found to have significant impact as well. Of which, prime interest rate is found to have negative relationship with landowners’ equity, and M2 growth rate is found to have positive relationship. Based on this empirical study, the result shows that increasing urban renewal floor area incentives indeed enhances landowners’ equity rights in a jointly developed urban renewal project. Thus, government should adjust appropriately each of the floor area incentives and their maximum allowed limits, giving the original residents a better living environment and a slightly larger living space from the redeveloped project. Furthermore, to increase the willingness of the original residents’ participation in urban renewal projects, the government could guarantee the retention of their floor area in the redeveloped projects to be the same as the floor area before urban renewal. The government should continue to promote its urban renewal policy. Proper architecture planning and design will improve the city’s appearance and the environment, as well as enhancing public safety and living standards - through which the government will not only achieve its policy objectives, but also create a win-win situation between the developers, landowners, and the government itself.

個人捐贈為教育、文化及公益慈善機構或團體的重要經費來源，目前我國於租稅上，提供捐贈者可扣抵其課稅所得的租稅誘因，相當於政府利用補貼的方式，降低了捐贈者的捐贈成本。但是否能有效達到激勵捐贈者的效果，則待實證研究分析。 本研究利用民國92年綜合所得稅申報資料分析，實證結果得知，慈善捐贈金額與可支配所得呈正向且顯著的關係；租稅價格變動對慈善捐贈金額變動有負向且顯著之影響，顯示目前政府的租稅政策能夠有效刺激捐贈，但針對高所得者價格彈性的有效性則降低。薪資所得佔可支配所得比率與捐贈金額呈正向之關係。納稅義務人的年齡越大、未婚、女性，較有慈善捐贈的意願。但納稅人申報扶養親屬人數較多及申報自用住宅購屋借款利息較多者，捐贈意願較低。最後，納稅義務人所在的地區也會影響其捐贈支出，隨著納稅人可支配所得增加，地域性的影響也逐漸減小。 / Individual charitable giving is an important source of finance for a wide variety of nonprofit organizations. Charitable contributions are deductible in determining taxable income; therefore, the current income tax system makes the price of charitable contributions less than the price of other goods and services. The deduction can be viewed as a tax subsidy. Whether the tax subsidy can stimulate charitable giving or not should be examined by empirical research. This study uses tax return data obtained from the Taiwan Government Finance and Tax Statistical Databank (for the year 2004). The results indicate that the income elasticity of charitable giving has positive and significant effect on charitable giving; while the tax price elasticity estimate is found to have a negative effect, except for the group of high income taxpayers. Beside price and income, salary to disposable income ratio varies with the giving. Female, married, and elder taxpayers are more likely to donate. However, a taxpayer who claims more deductions for dependents or primary residential house interests will be reluctant to give money to charities. The taxpayer’s registered permanent residence is found to have a strong influence on charitable giving. Nevertheless, as taxpayer’s disposable income increases, the regional factor is diminished gradually. The evidence presented in this study provides a useful foundation for the government to devise the future policy on the charitable deductions.

近年來在運用雙界二分選擇法(double-bounded dichotomous choice elicitation method)來估計受訪者願付價格(willingness to pay)的研究中，不再僅局限於單一非市場財貨的探討。這類型的模型中雖然納入了相關性的考量，但並未考慮財貨的願付價格間可能存在明確的大小關係。再者，針對抗議性樣本，以往的作法多半是丟棄不用，然而這顯然不是理想的作法。本文中，我們將建構一個模型來同時探討這兩項議題。此外我們也利用「竹東及朴子地區心臟血管疾病長期追蹤研究」第五循環中「肥胖之願付價格」的資料來進行實證分析。結果顯示，居住於竹東、有工作、曾以特定活動控制體重的受訪者願意支付較高的金額來參加減肥療程。 / Recent studies on estimating WTP prices in terms of the double-bounded dichotomous choice elicitation method are no longer restricted to the situations that discuss only one non-market good. Although a couple of models have been proposed to take the correlations into consideration when multiple scenarios are presented to the respondents, none of them pay attention to the possibilities that the prices themselves might be inherently ordered. This is one of the issues that need to be addressed. Another is about the protest samples. A common but apparently problematic approach is simply ignoring them completely. In this study, we propose a model that is able to take care of both issues simultaneously. In addition, the model is used to estimate WTP values for data collected in CVDFACTS about two weight loss treatments. The results indicate that respondents residing in Chu-Dong County, employed, and ever tried any weight controlled programs are willing to pay a higher price for the new treatments.

國內有許多以不同資料、次市場劃分以及控制品質的方法編製房地產相關價格指數，提供不同的價格資訊，然而編製的過程可能產生偏誤，影響價格指數之準確性，導致房價指數變動與市場訊息不符，因此各種相關房價指數之市場代表性仍有待釐清。 本文首先觀察目前市場較常使用之信義房價指數(中古屋)及國泰房地產指數(預售屋及新成屋)，發現近年來信義房價指數無法適當反應房地產市場景氣繁榮的情形。此二房價指數領先落後的關係亦不符合相關理論及過去實證，因此認為此二房價指數長期趨勢受到編製資料及估計方法上的偏誤所影響。接著利用政府(房地產交易價格簡訊)及業者(台灣不動產成交行情公報)資料以特徵價格法重新建立台北市及台北縣中古屋房價指數，並與信義房價指數作比較，結果顯示本文建立之中古屋房價指數相對於信義房價指數較符合市場變動與相關訊息。最後，為求未來房地產資訊之應用，將過去相關房價指數研究成果與本文建立之房價指數整合，並驗證台北市國泰房地產指數領先整合中古屋房價指數一季，台北縣國泰房地產指數領先整合中古屋房價指數二季，顯示此台北都會區的中古屋及預售屋房價指數相互間的關係符合相關理論推導與過去實證結果。 / There are many real-estate related price indices established in various formation of datum, submarkets and modeling, providing different kinds of price information. But the process itself may be a victim of error, hence affecting the precision of price indices and cause discrepancy between price indices’ variation and correlative market information, therefore the representativeness of real-estate related price indices must be clarified. In this study, we observe the commonly used Sinyi Housing Price Index (existing housing) and Cathay Real-Estate Price Index(pre-sales and new housing), and discovered that Sinyi Housing Price Index is incapable of reflecting the recent boom in the real-estate market. The Granger Causality test result of these two housing price indices(HPI) is inconsequent to relevant theory and empirical studies, therefore attribute this to the error within the establishment of HPI. Then, we reestablish existing housing HPI of Taipei city and Taipei county by using government and enterprise organized data. In comparison to Sinyi Housing Price Index, our newly established HPI cohere with correlative market information. And last, for future application of real-estate market information, we integrate empirical studies in the past with ours and examine its lead-lag relation with Cathay Real-Estate Price Index. The Granger Causality test result corresponds to relevant theory and empirical studies, furthermore, we found that the time-gap between Cathay Real-Estate Price Index and the Integrated existing housing HPI in Taipei city is 1-season, and 2-season in Taipei county.

特徵價格模型是傳統常被使用於不動產大量估價的模型，由於模型將造成所有價位的不動產其特徵都具有同樣的邊際價格而無法解釋現實不動產特徵的各種可能狀況，故引發本研究利用分量迴歸建立大量估價模型之動機。研究利用台灣不動產成交行情公報的資料進行台北市大廈的實證分析，針對特徵價格法的延伸與估價準確度做檢視。嘗試應用分量迴歸建立大量估價模型，討論住宅特徵對於價格的邊際影響力於不同價位的住宅是否存在差異，並討論分量迴歸模型的估價精確度。研究採用交互驗證法與重複實驗30次討論模型的估計效果，並利用平均絕對百分比誤差（MAPE）以及命中率（Hit Rate）做為模型預測優劣程度的衡量標準，以討論分量迴歸模型是否可以較最小平方特徵價格模型有更為準確的估計表現。實證首先探討價格分量之下各住宅屬性對於價格的影響狀況，得到大部分住宅特徵對於價格的邊際影響力的確會因住宅價位的不同而有所差異。在估價準確度的部份，經測試得到利用分量迴歸建立大量估價模型的估價效果達研究的預期目標，且其估計表現優於最小平方特徵價格模型。 / 藉由分量迴歸模型，得到隨著住宅價位的增加，坪數與屋齡對於價格的影響力並非呈現一致的趨勢；坪數輪廓與屋齡輪廓出現轉折也為變數增加二次項變數的原因得到實證依據。重複實驗30次的整體表現，分量迴歸模型的MAPE較最小平方迴歸模型低了1.687％；誤差落在正負10％的Hit Rate較最小平方迴歸模型高了3.81％；誤差落在正負20％的Hit Rate較最小平方迴歸模型高了5.14％。30次的實證為分量迴歸模型的估價表現更優於最小平方迴歸模型得到較具說服力的結果。 / Hedonic pricing models are traditionally used for real estate automated valuation models. Because the conditional mean calculated by OLS does not give a complete description of the relationship between dependent variable and independent variables, which leads to the motive of this study. This study inspects the extension of hedonic pricing models and appraisal accuracy, and we attempt to apply quantile regression to real estate automated valuation models and discuss the difference of the marginal contribution in each individual characteristic under different price level. Our study adopts cross validation and repeats empirical process for 30 times, and we use MAPE and hit rate to evaluate accuracy and argue if quantile regression models have better estimation. The empirical results show that the marginal contribution of housing area and age changes with price level; the turning points of area curve and age curve show empirical evidence for including square variables. The entirety performance of repeated experiments points out that the MAPE of quantile regression model is 1.687% lower than OLS model; as error ranged between 10% to -10%, the hit rate of quantile regression model is 3.81% higher than OLS model; as error ranged between 20% to -20%, the hit rate of quantile regression model is 5.14% higher than OLS model. The 30 times experiment of quantile regression models shows a much more persuasive result than OLS models.

農地價格隨著研究立場不同，而具有多元的價格型態，本研究採農業使用的角度，以收益法求取宜蘭縣三星鄉的農地價格，將之與實價登錄成交資料比較，並應用多元迴歸分析影響成交價格與收益價格差距的可能因素。 研究結果發現在民國89年後所新辦的農地重劃地區將增加農地的轉用壓力，且當新辦重劃地區內成交農地臨路寬度愈大，則成交價格與收益價格差距愈發明顯，表示新辦重劃區內道路寬度的設計已超出農用基本需求，而增加農地變更使用的可能，此與農地重劃擴大農場經營之目標相互衝突。但透過公約機制與生產制度面的改良，農業經營專區則可能減少農地的變更使用，進而達到保護農業生產環境的理想。另外，在三星鄉內，農舍的興建將擴大農地價差關係，促使農地轉用價值上升，且影響隨著時間遞嬗日益彰顯，顯示農地已面臨愈來愈高的轉用壓力。 / This study looks at difference between income approach value and transaction price at Sanxing Township, Yilan County. With different point of view, the agricultural land will have diversified value types, such as market value and use value. To begin with, we conduct income approach to determine agricultural land value as pure use value. Then, we compare it with transaction price from government statistics, calculating the gap between income approach values and real selling price. Finally, we apply multiple regression analysis to find price gap influence factors. The empirical model presents special agricultural enterprise zones may reduce agricultural land development pressure, and therefore could protect agricultural production environment. But, when at recent constructed agricultural land readjustment area, agricultural land will face much more development pressure which has violated land consolidation objects. Research also indicates that our land face much more development pressure with evolution of the time.

現行不動產大量估價主要以特徵價格模型為基礎進行價格之預估，而常以鄰里、轄區或次市場虛擬變數或是與特定公共設施之距離作為控制區位價值之變數。惟僅以次市場變數之係數或是距離特定公共設施距離之係數衡量樣本之區位價值，則因係數之僵化性弱化或低估區位對不動產價格之影響，導致大量估價模型之精度難以突破。 本研究以區位價值波面之概念建立條件式殘差擬合變數，從空間角度評估各樣本之區位價值並以量化數值呈現各樣本區位價值之高低，在細膩處理區位價值下模型之預估能力相對提升。實證結果顯示，整體模型之絕對誤差平均值為10.1%，而10%、20%誤差命中率達62.9%、87.9%，相對優於過去研究之模型預估能力；另外，經過區域侷限性測驗發現，條件式殘差擬合變數修正模型不受次市場之侷限，對於是否劃分模型次市場已不影響模型之預估能力，且經由實證發現，當實價登錄樣本愈趨豐富時，模型之預估能力將更加提升，值得作為後續建立大量估價模型之參考。 / Hedonic model is the most commonly-used tool for real estate mass appraisal, and neighborhoods, districts or sub-market dummies or the distance from the specific public facilities are the common variables used to control the value of location in the model. However, controlling the location value by these ways leads to the coefficient rigidities, making it possible to underestimate the value of the location. This research sets up the conditional-selected residual fitting variable by the concept of location value response surface, and estimates the location value from the spatial perspective. The result shows that the MAPE of the model is 10.1%, and the hit-rate of 10% and 20% come to 62.9% and 87.9%, having significant improvement compared with the past studies. Besides, by the confinement test of sub-market, it has been proved that the CRF modified model successfully gets rid of confinement from the sub-market, and whether dividing sub-markets or not no longer affects the prediction capability of the model. Another test giving us new images that, when the train data gets richer as time goes, the prediction capability of the model gets higher as well.