本論文為民國六十八年元月十一日行政院通過的「台灣地區能源政策」之研究。全文 計一冊，分六章廿一節，約八萬餘字。本文係採系統理論分析架構，對現行台灣地區 能源政策的形成經過、內容大要、執行情形與評估作一探討，並試提出反饋性建議。 第一章結論，計分四節，簡述能源政策概念與本文研究動機與目的、研究範圍、分析 架構，方法與限制。 第二章台灣地區能源政策制訂背景與經過，分為三節，包括公共政策理論的探述與漸 進式台灣地區能源政策制訂背景與經過。 第三章台灣地區能源政策的內容，共分四節，主要係以現行能源政策條文及其相關實 施辦法或計劃為基準，分析能源的供給、使用、價格與發展資金及能源之立法，執行 機構與研究發展等政策的內容。 第四章台灣地區能源政策的執行情形，分為四節，就能源的供給、使用、能源價格的 訂定與能源之立法，執行機構與研究發展之執行情形等專題加以論述。 第五章台灣地區能源政策執行情形評估。分為四節，對能源的供給、節約、污染防治 與能源專責機構等問題作嘗試性粗略評估。 第六章結論，分為二節，乃是對現行台灣地區能源政策決策過程、政策內容與執行、 評估情形的綜合分析榫與建議，以供當局未來修正參考。

本論文內容大概如次：第一章為緒論，說明研究動機、研究目的、研究方法與研究限 制。第二章為衵灣塑膠衣著製造業概況分析，介紹本業之發展展背景，目前台灣塑膠 衣著製造廠家的規模分析與生產概況，及分析廠商經營上所面臨的困難。第三章為台 灣塑膠衣著製造業的外銷產品結構與外銷市場結構，說明台灣塑膠衣著外銷的概況， 及所面臨的競爭情形。第四章為台灣塑膠衣著製造業當前國際行銷策略之分析，檢討 當前廠商外銷時所採用的產品、價格、通路、推廣等策略，發掘問題之所在，並提出 改進的辦法。五章為結論與建議，乃依據分析之結果，提出具體可行之建議，作為政 府與業者的參考。

近年由於物價變動激烈，致使資產歷史成本未能允當表達實際價值，影響所及，傳統 會計所得呈現虛盈實虧。若未有一套具備理論基礎，且屬客觀可行的資產重估價辦法 ，恐傷害企業資本之維持，乃試撰此文。大要如下： 前言：敘述研究動機及目的，研究方法及限制。 第一章：價格變動對傳統會計的衝擊。第一節：價格變動的特質與所得型態。第二節 ：課稅所得型態對經濟影響。第三節：改進傳統會計的各種理論與作法。第四節：本 章彙述。 第二章：物價水準會計。第一節：物價水準會計的介紹。第二節：按物價水準重編報 告的模式。第三節：物價水準重編報告的評估。第四節：本章彙述。 第三章：現值會計。第一節：現值會計制度之依據。第二節：現值會計重編報告的模 式。第三節：現值會計的評估。第四節：本章彙述。 第四章：我國營利事業資產重估價的介紹。第一節：資產重估價範圍。第二節：辦理 資產重估價方法與程序。第三節：資產重估價有關課稅問題。第四節：資產重估價會 計處理。 第五章：我國營利事業資產重估價的評議與構想。第一節：現行重估價制度與重估範 圍之評議。第二節：重估物價指數之抉擇與重估價值計算之探討。第三節：重估價後 課稅所得之分析。第四節：其他重估實務疑難問題之探討。 第六章：彙總與建議。

住宅市場是典型的不完全訊息市場，每個市場參與者並不知道潛在交易對象的所在位置、偏好，與保留價格。不完全訊息意涵著，交易者必須透過搜尋才能找到交易對象，因而必須支付搜尋成本，也會形成搜尋市場。不論是住宅交易的買方或者賣方，都可以選擇是自行搜尋交易對象，或者透過仲介業者來協助交易的達成。然而，仲介業者對於住宅搜尋市場之影響，目前仍存在著許多問題是尚待釐清的，而拍賣市場在台灣所扮演的重要性愈來愈高，其市場機制的價格效果也是值得關注的問題： 一、跨區購屋、定錨行為與仲介服務效果 買賣房屋幾乎必然會有議價過程，雙方的議價能力除了受到市場條件的影響外，賣方對於本身所蓋或者所擁有的房屋及附近地區市場等資訊都較買方為多，因此賣方處於較有利的地位。因此，本研究的第一個研究問題即是：就購屋者彼此之間，在地購屋者是否比跨區購屋者具有訊息優勢？參考價格偏誤是否存在？具有訊息優勢的仲介服務能否改善購屋者的搜尋成本與參考價格偏誤？本研究實證結果顯示，基於搜尋成本較高的原因，跨鄉鎮市區的跨區購屋者相對於未跨區者需要多支付3.8%的價格貼水。其次，參考價格愈高的地區，其購屋者會因為定錨效果或參考點偏誤而多支付1%的價格貼水，此外，高價格分配信念的購屋者，平均會支付4.9%的價格貼水。第三，地價上漲率較高地區的購屋者，會誤用自身地區的外推性預期，以為遷入地區也有同等的價格增值空間，而多支付約11.4%的價格貼水。最後，購屋者若尋求仲介服務亦能改善其出價能力，約可降低2.9%的價格貼水，然而，仲介服務在改善搜尋成本與定錨的效果方面則不顯著。 二、仲介服務對於價格分散之影響 本研究利用搜尋成本與價格分散的觀點，檢視具有訊息優勢的仲介服務業者是否真能提高住宅市場的價格搜尋效率。以台北地區的住宅市場資料，指出仲介服務的存在的確可以提高購屋者的搜尋能力。價格分散的估計與檢定結果則顯示：第一，購屋者成交價價格分散小於訂價價格分散；第二，透過仲介服務搜尋者訂價價格分散未顯著異於自行搜尋者的訂價價格分散，可是透過仲介服務搜尋者的成交價價格分散則顯著小於自行搜尋者的成交價價格分散，同時透過仲介服務的價格收斂比率較高。此乃表示，仲介服務業者並未運用其訊息優勢協助賣方進行較有效率的訂價，但是能有效地協助買賣雙方透過配對與議價活動，大幅地降低成交價的價格分散程度。此外，進一步比較國內相關研究結果，目前台北市的住宅市場訊息效率已較過去有顯著的改善，特別是透過仲介服務的改善效果更為明顯。 三、不對稱的仲介服務價格效果 過去有關仲介服務對於交易價格影響的實證結果卻出現許多分歧而不一致的現象，本研究認為過去相關文獻的差異，可能源自以普通最小平方迴歸的方式來估計仲介服務的價格效果時，會忽略住宅價格條件分配的差異。以分量迴歸估計後發現，仲介服務係數在各價格分量呈現很大的差異且顯著，仲介服務的價格效果，在0.10分量約有4.4%的溢價，而 0.75分量以上則約有-5.6%的折價現象。因此，本研究嘗試以高低價格分量的不對稱訂價策略，作為仲介服務價格效果不一致的現象的檢視觀點，並得到實證上的支持。 四、搜尋與拍賣市場機制選擇及拍賣市場績效之再檢視 拍賣市場為購屋者的重要次級市場之一，因此拍賣市場的績效就顯得愈來愈重要。本研究考慮了購屋者的搜尋成本對於市場機制自我選擇偏誤的影響，重新檢視拍賣市場的績效。本研究實證結果顯示，在未考慮自我選擇偏誤下，拍賣市場機制的估計係數為-22.6%，且達1%統計顯著水準。但是，在控制買方與物件的自我選擇偏誤後，我國拍賣市場與搜尋市場間並無顯著的價格差異存在，因而本研究對於過去國內相關文獻認為拍賣市場一定比搜尋市場折價較多的說法，提出了相當的質疑。惟此三年間我國北部地區拍賣市場的拍定率從10%快速成長到30%，而市場條件的快速變化，很可能會造成較大的拍賣價格變異。因此在後續研究上，可以比較拍定率差異較大的時間進行比較研究，以了解本研究結果之穩定度。 / This dissertation employs search theory and behavior theory to study four relative essays. The first essay is to test three questions using a unique data base in the viewpoint of search cost and Anchoring behavior: First, is there anchoring effect or reference price bias on home-purchasing behavior? Second, is there any extrapolative expectation effect of reference price change on homebuyers? Third, can homebuyers reduce price premium from their high search cost or perceived bias? Those answers can help us understand if we can get alternative interpretation to housing price dispersion and if government should provide housing information service. Empirically, we find that out-of-town/district buyers pay a statistically significant price premium in the Taipei area. We also find some evidence consistent with the price premium being driven by high search costs, anchoring effect and extrapolative expectation from heuristics. Finally, homebuyers can lower price premium through real estate brokers in the market. The second essay is to examine the efficiency of housing and brokerage markets in view of price dispersion. We find brokerage service enhance the search ability of homebuyers. We use listing price prices as the prices before search and the actual transaction prices as the price after search, and we also separate the sample into search by homebuyers and search by broker. We find that search by broker decreases the price dispersion compared to search by homebuyers. The third essay is try to explain a number of past and recent studies provided conflicting empirical answers to the effect of real estate brokerage service on housing price. We employ quantile regression to capture the behavior at each quantile of conditional house price distribution and to test the asymmetric effects of brokerage service. An important findings of this paper is that the price effects of real estate brokerage service are significant heterogeneous across the conditional price distribution. The contribution of this paper to the prior literature is to provide empirical evidence by showing that broker might have a positive, negative, or zero impact on the housing prices. The final essay is to discuss the decision making behavior of housing markets mechanism choice. Real estate auction market has been one of main market mechanisms of home purchase. Therefore, the performance of real estate auctions is a very important issue. This article reviews the price premium or discount of real estate auctions by correcting the self-selectivity bias in a view of homebuyers’ search cost. The empirical result shows that the availability of an auction as an alternative has the result of high search cost buyers attending auctions. Next, after accounting for the endogenous nature of this choice and controlling for property and buyer characteristics, prices of properties sold at auction were not lower than those of comparable properties sold in a search market. It is questionable to say the performance of real estate auctions is inferior to that of negotiated sales at Taiwan.

臺灣現有移轉計價之規範未有明確的罰則(Penalty)，因而衍生許多稅負規避的問題。本文採用動態最適化(Dynamic Optimization)的模型來觀察跨國企業移轉計價的行為，在面臨懲罰與兩國稅差時企業會如何利用移轉價格及數量來進行獲利移轉以規避稅負，進而分析政府調降稅率以降低稅差並吸引獲利移轉的稅率政策對企業移轉計價的影響，最後再探討罰則在法規制定上的必要性。結果顯示，預料到的稅率政策在長期能有效減少企業從事移轉價格操弄(Transfer Price Manipulation)，但在短期﹝除了宣告那一刻之外﹞反而更助長移轉價格操弄的發生，特別是當政策宣告至執行之期間過長時更為嚴重。此外，由先前的文獻可知無罰則下的最適移轉價格為一邊界解(Boundary Solution)，本文也證明了此邊界解亦可能出現於有罰則的情況下。然而，罰則的存在創造了內部解(Interior Solution)的可能性，此內部解較邊界解更趨近於常規交易價格，因此我們仍建議政府制定罰則。 / This paper employs a dynamic optimization model to determine the equilibrium price and quantity in a multinational firm (MNF) faced with a threat of a penalty. We analyze the impact on transfer pricing that arises from the unanticipated and anticipated permanent taxation policy of home country and host country. Anticipated taxation policy for reducing tax differentials can reduce transfer price manipulation in the long term. However, except for the moment of announcement, such reduction of transfer price manipulation does not occur in the short term, especially in the case of a large time lag of policy. We also show that the boundary solution is possible even though transfer price penalty exists and suggest that governments impose penalty which creates the possibility of interior solution.

本文以摩根台指與台灣50指數成分股調整的股價效應做比較，兩者對於成分股調整的宣告及生效是否存在異常報酬，而異常報酬的不同是否與其指數編制方式有關。實證結果發現摩根台指新增股具有 顯著正報酬、剔除股具有顯著負報酬，且在宣告日二十天後價格呈現反轉，符合價格壓力假說。而台灣50指數新增股異常報酬則不顯著異於零，兩種指數的新增股在宣告成份股調整後皆有超額成交量、流動性持續增加。再者摩根台指的宣告效果比台灣50指數強，且透過加權的方式較能表現出指數成份股調整所帶來的現貨價格影響。 / The study examines both the price and volume effect of stock additions or deletions on both the MSCI Taiwan index and Taiwan50 index. We document significant abnormal returns of stock additions and deletions for the MSCI Taiwan Index both on the announced period or on the effective period. In addition, we also find a significant abnormal return of stock deletions for Taiwan 50 Index either announced period or the effective period. While we do not find any significant abnormal return of stock additions. Further more, both the announced date effect and the effective date effect for MSCI Taiwan Index are stronger than those for Taiwan 50 Index. Our results support the price pressure hypothesis.

摘 要 目前我國地價制度是以公告土地現值為核心，但現行公告土地現值嚴重偏離市價，區段內各筆土地相對值極不合理，以此作為課稅稅基及徵收補償的依據，違背賦稅公平原則，為避免稅負漏損，落實漲價歸公，並於土地徵收時作到完全補償，讓公告土地現值趨近於市價，是現階段政府平均地權土地政策「價」的目標。 本研究即以此為論述出發點，從房地總價分離地價的根本查估問題導入，房地分離地價雖是現行公告土地現值查估最重要的價格來源基礎，但因公告土地現值掺雜了素地價和房地分離地價，造成「價」的定位不清、性質不明。經本研究實證結果發現，素地價格區間值相對於房地分離地價是較穩定且乖離率較低，房地分離地價會因建物存在狀態不同而異，且求算過程易受三個貢獻學說爭議的影響，不若素地地價單純，分離地價因含有超額利潤，有重複課稅之嫌，故公告土地現值及基準地價應以定位為「素地價」為宜。 採聯合貢獻所分離出來的地價較採土地貢獻分離地價，更接近素地地價，且與周邊的地價較為均衡，因此房地價格的分離方式應以聯合貢獻說較為合理。現行地價調查估計規則條文過於簡陋，應徹底修訂和不動產估價技術規則接軌，將房地分離方式納入聯合貢獻說的運用，採聯合貢獻分算房地價格時，分算基礎應以含間接成本的建物成本價格為宜，且不動產估價技術規則有關房地分離的相關法規，應予整合統一，房地分離估價方法定義、房地價值比率求算方式，應予明訂。 本研究建議採「價稅分離」，將公告土地現值功能用途單純化，使不同需求之地價回歸其功能目的，讓地政機關查估地價得以切實反應市價。並持續推動基準地地價查估制度，基準地查估不但具有個別宗地估價之精確度，又不失大量估價之方便性，亦能使公告土地現值更趨近於市價，應可改善現行公告土地現值查估制度的諸多缺失。 關鍵字：房地價格分離、公告土地現值、基準地、素地價、區段地價 / Currently, the core of the land value system in Taiwan is based on the Announced Current Land Value(ACLV). However, the ACLV deviates from the market value and the relationship between each parcel of land within the Land Value District is not reasonable. If the ACLV becomes part of the tax base and the foundation for compensation when the land is expropriated, it would be against the fairness and equity principle of taxation. In order to prevent tax loss, put the “Land Increment to the Public” into reality, compensate to the fullest when expropriation, the current goal of the Equalization of Right, the “Land Evaluation” of the land policy by the government is to make the ACLV approximating to the market value. Based on those issues mentioned above, this research delves into the core issue, the separation of improved property price. Although the land value separated from the improved property price is the most important foundation of the ACLV, the orientation of the value is not certain, and the nature of the value is not clear due to the ACLV is a combination of the land value from the vacant land and improved property. This thesis discovers the vacant land value range is more stable and the possibility of deviation is lower compared to the improved property price. The land value separated from the improved property will differ owing to the difference of the buildings which have already existed, and the controversy resulted from three contribution principles, which makes it more complicated than the vacant land value. If the land value separated from the improved property contains surplus profit, whether the double taxation occurs or not is in doubt. Hence, the orientation of the ACLV and the benchmark land value is better to be identified by the vacant land value. The separated land value adopting the land-build-united contribution principle approximates the vacant land value more compared to land contribution, and maintain better equilibrium status with surrounding lands. Hence the land-build-united contribution is more reasonable when separated the value from the improved property. Current articles of the “Regulations on the Land Value Investigation and Assessment” are too simplified. It needs to be totally overhauled to be in conformity with the “Regulations on the Real Estate Appraisal.” The land-build-united contribution should be incorporated for the separation of improved property price. The building cost value, which is to be deducted, should consider the indirect cost. Related stipulations of the separation of improved property price should be unified. The definition of the separation approach of improved property price and estimation of the land value ratio and the building value ratio shall be stipulated. This dissertation suggests the “separation of the evaluation and the taxation” and makes the function and purpose of the ACLV simple. When the land value identified for different function and political purpose is not directly relevant to the ACLV, the ACLV the land administration assess would reflect the market value. The land value benchmark system needs to be implemented continuously. Not only is the precision of the land value benchmark appraisal identical to the individual parcel of land appraisal, but also maintains the efficiency of the mass appraisal as well as making the ACLV closer to the market value, the implementation of the Land Value Benchmark could improve the deficiency of the current Announced Current Land Value system. Keywords: the separation of improved property price, Announced Current Land Value, Land Value Benchmark, vacant land value, District Land Value.

過去雖有文獻探討國內房地產市場泡沫化問題，卻僅從租金收益的單一角度衡量房價基值，對於自有住宅比例較高的台灣而言，家戶所得不僅代表購屋者的負擔能力，更是構成房價基值的重要因素。有鑑於此，本研究分別從租金收益及家戶所得兩者不同角度下，透過資產市場現值模型，分別建立房價基值模型分析泡沫化現象。此外，過去文獻僅從檢定價格波動穩定性與否或將殘差項視為泡沫來研究泡沫化問題，然泡沫為不可觀察之變數，故本文使用具有可估計不可觀察變數特質的狀態空間模型（STATE-SPACE MODEL），推估泡沫價格，分析在不同時期下泡沫的規模大小。 在實證方面，本研究使用台北市1973Q2至2008Q1共140筆住宅價格資料，發現由租金與所得所計算之房價泡沫規模略為一致。在1988~1990年房市泡沫化時期，所得推估之泡沫規模達到高峰，泡沫價格占市價約47%；而由租金面亦計算出泡沫價格占市價約54%的高比例。而在2008年房價持續上漲的情況下，兩者泡沫價格亦呈現相同上升之走勢，泡沫價格近市價38%，租金推估泡沫價格占市價27%；此結果表示出目前房市有泡沫化之跡象，現階段欲購屋自住者不宜進入市場，宜審慎等待時機。而本文認為房價所得比或是房價租金比皆是作為衡量台北市房地產市場泡沫化現象之重要指標，另外就總體因素分析而言，房價上漲率、貨幣供給額、貸款利率與大盤股價指數皆為影響泡沫之重要因素，且經由實證發現所得所推估之泡沫價格較具有市場代表性。 / The past literatures about Taipei housing price bubble has only been measured the fundamental price by rent. However, the housing owner ratio is so high in Taiwan that housing income is not only regarded as affordability but also an important fundamental factor of housing price. According to the above, we focus on different fundamental models that define market fundamental price to analyses the bubble price from expected present value of both rent and permanent housing income. On the other hand, different from lots of literature testing the housing price volatility or residual to measure bubble prices, because housing bubble is an unobservable variable, we apply State-Space Model which is good for testing an invisible factor to estimate bubble in the housing markets of Taipei. This paper tries to test whether there was a housing price bubble using Taipei housing price index ranged from 1973Q1 to 2008Q1. The findings indicate that there appeared bubble ratio from 1988 to 1990, 47% of the housing price based on housing income and 54 % of the housing price based on rent. In 2008 when housing price continually keeps rising, bubble price ratios are close to 38% and 27% respectively. Those results show that Taipei seems to have sign of a bubble in this moment and housing buyers should concern it with more caution. Secondly, both price-income ratio and price-rent ratio are good indicators to measure housing bubble prices. Beside, we find macro economic factors change, such as the growth rate of housing price, M2, mortgage rate, and stock price index, are important to influence the size of housing bubble. Thirdly, bubble price estimated by housing income has a better performance than rent.

高密度發展的都市型態已成為世界各國為追求永續發展的都市規劃方式。對政策規劃者來說，他們關心的議題之一為高密度都市發展後房價的變動是否會影響居民對住的福利水準，過去文獻之實證研究亦發現高密度發展將產生房價上漲或下跌的效果，此引發本研究欲得知高密度指標對台北市房價將如何影響之動機。然而高密度都市發展政策的實施對各所得階層居民的影響為何若以普通最小平方迴歸分析將無法得知，所以本研究以分量迴歸進行分析，增加變數的可解釋能力。 因此本研究以台北市十二個行政區為空間範圍，利用民國九十三年至九十六年間共1268筆房屋交易實例案例，作為實證研究之樣本。主題變數方面以容積率、是否為住宅大樓及人口密度來分析各變數對房價之影響。藉由普通最小平方迴歸及分量迴歸分析結果發現，高密度之都市發展將造成住宅平均價格下跌，對中低總價住宅亦產生價格下跌的效果，因此高密度都市發展型態將增加居民福利水準，增進都市整體效益。 / Nowadays, most nations in the world has thought of the urban form of high density development as a mean to pursue sustainable development. For policy planner, what they care is whether high density development would influence residents about the variation of welfare for living. Literatures of past empirical research also show that high density development will have the effects of rising or falling on housing prices, which leads to the motive of this study and also leads to a better understanding of how high density indicators would impact housing prices in Taipei City. However, what’s the impact for every income class through the implication of this urban development policy is impossible to know if we use OLS models, therefore, our study adopts Quantile Regression to enhance the interpretable abilities for every variable. Accordingly, our study uses 1268 property-trading-records from 2004 to 2007 as samples, which all locate within 12 districts in Taipei City. We use floorage ratio, residential building and population density as main variables to analyze their impacts on housing prices. The result shows that high density development will both lead to falling of average housing prices and middle and low housing prices. Consequently, the urban form of high density development will enhance the level of residents’ welfare and improve the benefits for all urban area.

相關研究指出土地面積與地價應該呈現非線性關係，隨著坵塊面積增加，土地價格將先以遞增的速率增加，之後再以遞減的速率增加，即基地面積規模不經濟（plattage）和基地面積規模經濟（plottage）現象。本研究以台南市土地交易案例進行驗證，以總價模型利用「移動式Chow Test」尋找結構變化點，據以分析其經濟結構是否具有顯著差異。實證結果顯示基地面積規模經濟(plottage)與基地面積規模不經濟(plattage)現象同時存在。 / According to some literature, there is a nonlinear relationship between the land area and the land value. Land value will enhance with an increasing pace as land area increase in the beginning. However, as land area keeps increasing, the land value will only enhance with a decreasing pace. Namely, the plattage phenomenon will follow the plottage phenomenon. Bases on the land transaction samples from Tainan city and the model with total price as dependent variable, this research searches the structural change of the land area using Chow Test sequence to analyze whether there is significant distinction in economic structure. The empirical results show the plattage phenomenon coexists with the plottage phenomenon.