本研究以不動產估價技術規則第19條第7項與第20條之規定，引用相似無關迴歸模式、多變量迴歸模式與典型相關分析等計量模式，對金融機構所做的擔保品估價進行驗證、預測及控制分析。 擔保品估價中會產生兩價，即擔保品的評估市場價格與評估擔保值（價），大部分的人都認為兩價存在一個比率關係。傳統的迴歸分析估價模式係由一組價格影響因素影響一個不動產價格，上述情形是否可能由同一組價格影響因素影響兩個不動產價格？本研究實證結果顯示，在95％統計信賴水準下，有兩個不動產價格受同一組價格因素影響的結果。既然驗證存在同一組價格影響因素影響兩個不動產價格，是否有更具效率的計量估價模式呢？典型相關分析係透過兩組變項之相關關係建構計量模式，除可再度驗證同一組價格影響因素影響兩個不動產價格，並可如同因素分析或主成份分析的功能，對兩組變項各做變項縮減的工作，達到對變項去蕪存菁的效果。 / This thesis is based on Article 19 No 7 and Article 20 of the Real Estate Appraisal Regulation. Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model, Multivariate Regression Model and Econometric Model and so on econometric model are applied. In addition, collateral valuations done by financial institutions are verified, predicted and analyzed. In collateral valuations, there are two-value references: assessed market value and assessed accommodation value. Majority believe that there is a ratio between these two values. The traditional regression analysis of the valuation model is having one set of pricing factors to have impact on the real estate price. However, is it possible that one set of pricing factors will affect two real estate prices? The findings approve that, under statistical confidence level with 95%, more than two real estate prices can be influenced by one set of pricing factors. Further more, this thesis also examines if there are other econometric valuation models to be applied? The canonical correlation analysis is to build a calculation model to analyze correlation between two variables. Other than examining one set of pricing factors can influence two real estate prices, this analysis also provides a similar function of the factor analysis or principal analysis to reduce variables caused by two sets of variable.

國內外大部分的學者，探討法拍屋與市價的價差，存有極大的興趣，學者的文獻資料數量極為豐富。但對於從法拍市場取得後再出售的房地產價格效果，鮮少見有研究者著墨。更少的是有關存在於法拍市場與一般搜尋市場的兩次出售的價格比較研究。過去有關房地產的交易過程與成交價格關係的研究，不論是從法拍市場或一般搜尋市場取得後再出售的售價，部分的學者認為有受到定錨效應的影響有折價現象，而產生最後成交價的不同。傳統經濟學的假設，許多人以為「人是理性的」是必要的假設，其實是很大的誤解。事實上，傳統經濟學的模型在解釋經濟活動時，早已發現許多的「異常」現象。展望理論提出對傳統效率市場假說的批判，成功的將心理學導入經濟學領域，讓我們在解釋「異常」的現象時，多加上「人性」因素方面的考量，而使得解釋能力更為周延。本研究分析法拍屋拍定價格及一般搜尋市場投資者買入後再出售時價格比較。我們發現：在法拍市場與一般搜尋市場中，賣方訂定參考點存有不同的價差關係。這說明了，參考點存在於交昜過程中不同的時點，賣方依各個不同的參考點，在法拍市場與一般搜尋市場中決定最後的成交價。 / 研究結果發現，顯示在不同市場之法拍與一般搜尋市場中獲得房子，再出售之賣方訂定的各種參考點也存有顯著的差異性，在一般市場與法拍市場中均以最大可能成交價價差最為顯著。其次，研究同時發現在不同的市場景氣狀態中，賣方訂定參考點存有不同的價差關係，法拍與一般搜尋市場價格存有規避損失現象。賣方存有規避損失的訂價價格效果。深入訪談時發現，賣方出盈保虧的規避損失現象是一個十分普遍的現象。如果投資人對於已造成跌價損失的房地產不願輕易認賠脫手，表示投資人在有規避損失心態下，願意承擔風險，繼續持有該房地產。因此，在停損前，往往已下跌了相當的幅度；相反的，如果投資人對於已獲利的房地產很快的獲利了結，則表示停利前的上漲幅度有限，賣方為了得到正報酬，將依不同的參考點，調整不同的出售訂價。這個研究讓我們了解到「世事無絕對，視參考點而定」。參考點的選擇，對於我們的決策上會產生不同的結果。然而，面對參考點如此的多樣性，投資人於投資後，應避免只以購買價為決策參考點，以免造成損失。尤其在景氣低迷時期，在擬定銷售策略時，除了較難以改變區位條件外，應改變以價格為主要的行銷重點的方式，多提供買方相關外部資訊，滿足其需求，以縮短出售時的銷售期間。

收益資本化率是不動產估價收益法中最為關鍵的因素，不動產淨收益透過收益資本化率轉換為價值，其步驟看似簡易，卻深藏「失之毫釐，差之千里」的陷井。在國內，商用不動產廣泛運用收益法來估計不動產價值，但收益資本化率之研究卻相當缺乏，相關文獻僅限於國外，因此，本研究以台北市商用不動產為主要研究對象，除了探討收益資本化率之影響因素與實務界在決定過程上的缺失外，並提出較具有解釋力的計算與預測方法。 本研究蒐集自1992年至2008年止台北市商用辦公室之租金與房價資料，利用特徵價格模型將轉換後的租金與房以直接資本化法計算收益資本化率，與問卷結果中可得之影響因素資料進行相關分析、多變量自我迴歸分析，找出關鍵之影響因素，並利用指數平滑法、Box-Jenkins、灰色與VAR模型等時間預測方法來進行收益資本化率之預測。 本研究實證結果顯示，以特徵價格模型計算台北市商用辦公室之收益資本化率，其模型解釋力相當高，並獲致區位上的差異結果。此外，影響因素分為四個面向包含：社會經濟條件、其他投資工具、市場條件、建築物條件等四項，影響因素中除了收益資本化率自身前期為一個重要指標，社會經濟條件之經濟成長率、建築物條件之台電用電不足底度戶數與市場條件之電力(企業)總用電量(十億度)為重要領先指標，其他投資工具之股價指數與社會經濟條件之失業率為同步對收益資本化率有影響性，代表市場條件之不動產景氣領先綜合指標受到收益資本化率之影響而為落後指標，而收益資本化率本身並具有平均數復歸的現象。在未來趨勢的預測方面，單一時間數列適合長期資料之預測模型Box-J進行預測之解釋力（adjR-square）較高，各模型之預測結果平均來說，以Box-J與VAR-I為最有可能之預測值，而最樂觀為VAR-II之預測值，最悲觀為灰色之預測值。 透過國內不動產估價實例進行驗證，本研究結果可以準確進行事後驗證與事前預測，對於提升不動產估價師與投資者收益資本化率的估計與解釋能力上應有所助益。 / Capitalization rate is the most crucial factor in the income approach real estate appraisal method. When this appraisal method is applied, real estate net income is converted into value via capitalization rate. The conversion process is simple and straight forward, but there seems a trap of misuse in real practice. Domestically, income approach real estate appraisal method has been put to use extensively to estimate commercial real estate value. However, research in capitalization rate is in shortage considerably. Related literature merely re-stricted in overseas resource, Hence, our study focus on Taipei office as the main subject to investigate the influential factors of capitalization rate and its shortcoming of real practice, in additional, we propose more concrete explana-tory calculation and estimation methods. Our study collects information on Taipei City office rental and transaction price between 1992 and 2008. Using Hedonic Price Model, the converted rents and transaction price are applied by direct Capitalization Approach to calculate capitalization rate. Thereafter, we compared with the influential factors derived from the survey through correlation analysis, and Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) to find the pivotal influence factors. Meanwhile, we use Exponential Smoothing(ES)、Box-Jenkins、Grey Forecasting Model and VAR time-series estimate method to conduct capitalization rate prediction. The result of this study provides actual proof that to use Hedonic Price Model to calculate office capitalization rate of Taipei, the results are rather ac-curate and indicate a geographical difference. In terms of influential determi-nates, the capitalization rate in itself is an important indicator in the beginning. The Economical Growth Rate and the household under electricity base degree utility of Taiwan Power Company are also significant leading indicators. Stock Price Index, Unemployment Rate and the capitalization rate affect among them. Real Estate Cycle Leading Indicators are affected by capitalization rate and hence a lagged index. Capitalization itself exhibits mean return phenomenon. The future trend prediction of capitalization rate, Box-J and VAR-I give the most likely estimates; VAR-II gives the most optimistic value, whilst Grey Forecasting Model gives the most pessimistic estimation. Through Case study of domestic real estate appraisal to conduct experi-mental verification indicates that the result of our study can accurately carry out aftermath verification and prior estimation. As such, hopefully our empiri-cal study might be able to benefit real estate appraiser and investor to enhance their ability to determine the capitalization rate.

如何客觀有系統的估計公告土地現值一直是土地估價研究領域的熱 門話題，目前公告土地現值的查估，多數以區段地價作為宗地地價，受限 人為主觀與人力不足的缺點，查估的結果並不一定能有效反應各區段間地 價差異。由於以往房地產實證研究的領域中，特徵方程式一直是受到廣泛 運用的工具，然多數著重於各別宗地價格進行模型設計，較少以地價區段 範圍建立估價模型。本研究以三峽鎮住宅區民國89 至98 年區段地價進行 實證分析。變數的選取主要是配合「地價調查估計規則」所規範影響普通 住宅用地區域因素基準，並將全部變項納入複迴歸模型中，先測試綜合影 響程度，再將未符合預期及篩選合理顯著變項重新建立區段地價估價模 型。實證顯示接近公車站牌之程度、區段內道路規劃及開闢建程度、景觀 有無、保排水良否、地勢是否高低起伏、至國中小距離、至市場超市距離、 至三峽老街距離、停車是否便利、至墓地殯儀館火葬場距離及是否具發展 潛力等11 項變數達顯著水準，於20%內之Hit Rate 達91.18%，MAPE 亦僅 7.9%，均能符合預期表現。本文透過區段地價估價模型之建立，提供電腦 輔助區段地價估價可行方案，藉以增進公告土地現值評估客觀及科學化程 度。 / How to estimate the announced current land value objectively and systematically is always a hot issue in land valuation research field. And, since the announced current land value is the foundation for levying the land value increment tax and compensation when land expropriation, the risk of unfairness might happen if the announced current land value is not objective and systematical. Under the announced current land value system, most parcel land values are produced using the district land value. Although decades of valuation experience by assessors, the district land value would not necessarily reflect fundamental value effectively. Taking into consideration of the difference between the degree the zoning affect the land value and the heterogeneity characteristic of land, this paper construct district land value model on different zoning. The empirical study region is the residential zoning area in the Sanshia Township, for its landscape with new and old mixed buildings, featuring metropolitan development characteristic, and stable sales transaction volume. The empirical time period is from 2000 to 2009. The district land value estimated from sales, collected from the Shulin Land Office, is the dependent variable. The selection of the independent variables is in line with the region factors of common residential area regulated by “The Regulations on the Land Value Investigation and Estimation” after combining similar attributes for easing the bias possibility from co linearity. The empirical result shows the significant variables are the ratio of constructed road area to total area within the land value district, parking convenience, development potentiality and the distance from bus station, junior, elementary schools, market, service facilities, graveyard, etc. The model fit is good with adj-R2. This paper hopes to increase the automation degree of the announced current land value and make the announced current land value objectively and systematically by establishment of the district land value model.

本文的研究目的為分析台灣菸品消費的特性。本文選擇採取分量迴歸法作為研究方法，探討在0.05、0.2、0.4、0.6、0.8和0.95的菸品消費分量下，吸菸家戶的菸品消費特性效果為何。資料來源為行政院家庭收支調查報告。 研究結果指出，在0.2到0.8分量的菸品消費量下，菸品的價格彈性為-0.161到-0.231之間。然而，在0.05分量的菸品消費量下，菸品的價格彈性為-0.363，而當位於0.95分量的菸品消費量時，菸品的消費彈性大幅的提升至-0.701。這代表著提高菸品稅或是菸品健康福利捐的政策是可以有效減少吸菸行為的。 更近一步探討，在0.95分量的菸品消費下，菸品的消費彈性大幅的提升至-0.701，對於此現象可能的解釋為，對於較高菸品消費量的家戶大部分為吸菸成癮者，當價格上漲時，消費者會選擇改變吸菸習慣例如戒菸或購買較便宜的香菸。 而值得一提的是，對於吸菸成癮的消費者而言，也存在一定機率會選擇購買非法的走私香菸，而走私香菸不但無法增加我國菸品稅收收入，也無法達成抑制我國吸菸率的政策目標。因此，政府在推動菸品控管政策時，須將菸品消費者的消費特性列入考量，同時也必須加強查緝非法菸品走私的行為，才能更有效達成政策目標。 / The research purpose of the paper was to analyze the characteristics of cigarette consumptions in Taiwan. The paper had adopted quantile regression as research method to discuss the effect of smoking households’ consumption characteristics to the cigarette consumptions in Taiwan at 0.05, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 0.95 quantile. Data for the research was sourced from the “Report on the Survey of Family Income & Expenditure”, conducted by the Executive Yuan, R.O.C. The results showed up that the price elasticities of cigarettes were estimated about -0.161 to -0.231 from 0.2 to 0.8 quantile of cigarettes consumption. However, the price elasticity of cigarettes was -0.363 in 0.05 quantile and raised significantly to -0.701 in 0.95 quantile. Indicating the policy of implementing cigarette tax or “Health and Welfare Surcharge on Tobacco Products” would decrease the smoking behavior effectively. Furthermore, the price elasticity changed to -0.701 in 0.95 quantile, a possible explanation for this phenomenon was that households with higher cigarette consumption were highly addicted to smoking, when the cigarette price increased, they would try to change smoking habit such as buying cheaper cigarettes or quit smoking. However, it is worth noticed that there existed risks of price sensitive smokers seek out measures to purchase less expensive cigarettes when they were highly relied on cigarettes, such as smuggled cigarettes, which may decrease future cessation efforts, and also lose the tax revenue from cigarette excise tax. Therefore, government should also take the consumption characteristics of smoking households into account and also enhance the prevention of illegal consumption behaviors when implementing the tobacco control policy.

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences. / Department of Government and Public Administration

住宅本身特性和鄰里環境為影響住宅價格價格高低之主要因素，環境特徵通因素常透過公共設施反映，設施越完善表示鄰里生活機能及可及性越高，產生正面效應使得住宅價格提升；鄰避設施產生的負面外部性導致居住品質下降，造成住宅價格降低。然現有文獻多數偏向針對特定的公共設施類型分析，相對少見到同時針對多樣設施進行全面性研究，缺乏生活設施面向的實證及設施服務水準衡量。 本研究運用特徵價格理論結合地理資訊系統，界定多項重大設施與生活設施；以等級衡量生活設施服務水準，並建構最小平方及分量迴歸模型自動分群探討設施之量增趨勢對住宅總價影響，以對設施作全面性研究。本研究採用臺北市2011年7月至2015年9月不動產交易實價登錄樣本與設施資料為對象。實證結果顯示，住宅總價主要受交通便利性和開放空間效益影響，生活設施水準對總價為正向影響，顯示生活機能具有正面效益。設施影響係數依序為捷運站0.0774、主題公園0.0307、餐飲0.0283、大專院校0.0219、大型醫院0.0193、殯葬設施-0.0190、學校0.0124、市場0.0057、鄰里公園0.0042及便利商店-0.0018。本研究進而探討不同總價下的設施影響效果發現，隨著住宅總價從低到高，各項生活設施的影響下降，低總價住宅主要受到生活機能和開放空間等鄰里環境影響，設施的便利性大於可及性效益；高總價住宅以負面外部性、文教及開放空間效益和就醫便利為主要影響，設施的便利效益不顯著。 / House pricing is strongly affected by its characteristics and neighborhood environment. Neighborhood characteristics are usually reflected by public facilities. The better the facilities are, the higher quality and convenience of the life results in a positive effect on housing price. The negative externalities of the NIMBY (not-in-my-back-yard) facilities lead to a decline in the quality of living and a reduction in housing prices. However, most of the existing literatures tend to focus on specific types of public facility. In this paper, more detailed study on the effects of overall facilities is proposed. In this research, the overall influence of facilities service level on house pricing is the focus. The proposed regression models are based on Hedonic price theory combined with geographic information system (GIS) to automatically cluster (or quantize) the facility numbers. The clustering is used for evaluating the relationships between facility number and housing price. Those overall facilities are categorized into two groups, important and community facilities. The provided different service levels of community facilities are defined. The real estate sales database in Taipei City from July 2012 to Sept. 2015 along with facilities is used for the evaluations. The evaluated results show that the total price is mainly affected by the convenience of transport and open space benefits, the service levels of community facilities have a positive effect. The impacts of the facilities are in the order of MRT, theme parks, restaurants, Universities, large hospitals, funeral facilities, schools, markets, neighborhood parks and convenience stores. Theme parks, the service level of community facilities and universities have higher impacts on those low-priced property while. funeral facilities, theme parks and large hospitals have higher impacts on high-priced one. One more finding is that the impacts of the service level of community facilities has declined with the increase in total housing prices. Low-priced property is mainly affected by the neighborhood environment and open space because facilities convenience is greater than the accessibility. High-priced property is mainly affected by the negative externalities, education, open space and access to medical care.

服務品質、價格、品牌形象與品牌個性對顧客滿意度之影響─以銀行業為例隨著經濟發展與產業結構的改變，服務業佔國內生產毛額的比重逐漸提高；同樣地，服務業管理和服務業行銷的重要性亦與日俱增。鑑於服務業因無形性、不可分割性、異質性、與不可儲存性等特性，與實體商品行銷產生不同的觀念；加以國內相關研究，大都著重在服務品質、產品品質、顧客滿意度，或是知覺價格以及顧客忠誠度等方向為主，就品牌與服務品質、顧客滿意度之間的關聯性較少著墨，因此本研究加入了品牌形象、品牌個性對顧客滿意度的影響之探討。 本研究之研究目的為：(1)界定服務品質的構面，並探討知覺服務品質評價對顧客滿意度之影響。(2)探討顧客對知覺價格的接受程度對顧客滿意度之影響。(3)界定品牌形象與品牌個性的構面，並研究顧客對其重視的程度。(4)探討品牌形象與知覺服務品質間的關係。(5)探討品牌形象與品牌個性認同程度對顧客滿意度之影響。(6)建立服務品質、知覺價格、品牌形象、品牌個性與顧客滿意度之間關係的一個完整架構。 本研究為一探索性研究，首先依據文獻探討建構研究架構，並發展問卷設計，同時選擇無形性比重較高、在服務業具重要性與代表性的銀行業為實證對象。研究結果顯示，除了知覺服務品質與知覺價格中的存款價格與顧客滿意度為正相關外；品牌形象、品牌個性與顧客滿意度亦呈正相關；而且品牌形象與知覺服務品質亦有正向關係。同時，本研究還發現品牌個性及品牌形象透過服務品質對顧客滿意度有一間接的影響。

現行公告土地現值的評估，係採用人工的傳統方法，估價結果誤差甚大且過於主觀，無法達到大量估價客觀、快速、精確之目標。本文首先利用土地經濟理論的分析，探討土地市場價值、交易價格、評估價值之間的關係，釐清常見的混淆概念。並藉由估價比率研究，討論公告現值與市價差距的檢定模型，針對台南市的實際資料進行統計檢定，結果發現平均估價比率落於46.74﹪~48.52﹪之區間，並存在輕微的垂直不公平。 為改進現行公告現值不夠準確之缺失，本研究基於都市經濟理論與估價先驗訊息之基礎，利用特徵價格法與可加性模型建立大量估價模式。實證結果發現，影響台南市地價之因素，以區位、臨街關係、路寬、使用分區最為重要。在部份年度中，亦證實存在基地面積規模不經濟（plattage）現象。 傳統特徵價格法必須預設函數型態，若函數設定錯誤則將使參數估計產生偏誤。可加性模型結合無母數迴歸與母數迴歸之優點，不須預設函數型態、估計結果易於解釋且維持母數迴歸之收斂速度。其可經由修勻法配適出更客觀的函數關係，無論在樣本內與樣本外之估計均較特徵價格法為佳。 研究結果發現，本文所提出的二種估價模式確可達到快速精確的目標，使估價比率接近１，比目前評估效率提高一倍；在公平性方面雖無改善，但亦無嚴重之垂直不公平。其中可加性模型又較特徵價格法為佳，在電腦技術快速進步的今天，應用至大量估價的可行性大為提高，值得後續進一步深入研究。 / The present Announced Land Current Value （ALCV）was evaluated by traditional appraisal method that may result in large errors. Comparing to mass assessment approaches, it is hard to be objective, quick and precise. This research begins with the analysis based on land economic theory to discuss the relation among the market value, sale price and assessed value of land in order to clarify some confusing concepts. Through assessment-sale price ratio study, we analyze the difference between ALCV and sale price, and then use the actual data of Tainan City for empirical study. The results show that the average a-s ratio falls between 46.74%~48.52% with slight vertical inequity. To improve the lack of preciseness and objectivity of the present ALCV, this research uses hedonic price theory and Generalized Additive Model（GAM）based on urban economic theory and appraisal priori information. The results show that location, relations with adjacent streets, road width and zoning are the most influencing factors of land price in Tainan City. During some years, the phenomenon of plattage effect also exits. The function form must be set beforehand in the traditional hedonic pricing, meanwhile parameters bias will occur if the pre-determined function form were wrong. GAM has the advantages of nonparametric regression and parametric regression. The function form needs not to be pre-determined, the empirical results are easy to interpret, and the speed of variable convergence can be maintained. More precise functional relations can also be smoothed by GAM. It is superior to the traditional hedonic price in the sample and out of the sample prediction alike. The results of empirical study show that both of two models can reach the goal of rapidity and preciseness and make the a-s ratio toward 1. As to the equity, although they are not improved very much, the models don't bring serious vertical inequity. However, GAM is better than hedonic pricing when compared to each other. Due to the great progress of computer technology, the application of GAM to mass assessment can be increased greatly and is worthy continuing further study.

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