隨著中國大陸經濟的高度成長，不動產市場也隨之發展。在貸款利率及不動產相關稅負長期偏低之下，住宅產品的投資需求不斷上升，使得房價一路高漲。房屋價格的增幅過大、增速過高，已經超出了合理的範圍。截至2010年，中國大陸推出一系列以抑制房價為主要目的的宏觀調控政策，許多重點城市也陸續推出以“限購令”為主要內容的地方性政策來調控不動產市場。由於中國大陸地幅遼闊，各地的不動產市場因受各種因素影響而發展各異，因此挑選了北京、上海、廣州三個頗具代表性的重點城市作為研究對象。本文應用年租金與加權平均資本成本（WACC）還原基本價值，以其與市場價格間的差距作為泡沫程度的估計，計算出這三個城市2007年至2012年間不動產價格泡沫程度。藉由這三個城市的不動產市場泡沫狀況，運用共整合分析檢視中國城市不動產價格泡沫的影響因素，并以Granger因果關係檢定探討三地不動產價格泡沫與各因素之領先落後關係。 實證結果顯示，人均可支配收入和金融機構各項信貸總額對不動產價格泡沫具有正向影響，不動產價格泡沫則對其本身具有負向影響，而抵押貸款利率與不動產價格泡沫先是正相關而後轉為負相關的關係。而根據Granger因果關係檢定結果，北京不動產價格泡沫落後於金融機構各項貸款總額，而上海不動產價格泡沫領先於人均可支配收入，廣州不動產價格泡沫則落後於人均可支配收入、抵押貸款利率與金融機構各項貸款總額。 / With the rapid economic development in China, the real estate market has been undergoing a great boom. The low interest and tax rates are very favorable for the continuously increasing house demands, and thus resulting in higher housing prices. And the extremely rapidly increasing housing prices are not reasonable. Until 2010, Chinese government had published a series of national housing regulatory decisions to address the over-heating real estate market. And the restrictions on house purchase have been put into practice in some major cities. Given that China has a vast territory with large variety, the impact of these regulations on the local real estate markets of the cities can hardly be determined. Therefore, we study here the real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, three of the most representative major cities in China. This study evaluates the housing bubbles situations in these cities from 2007 to 2012 by comparing fundamental values with market prices. The fundamental value of real estate can be calculated by annual rents and WACC. Based on the evaluated housing bubbles situations, this study then applies Cointegration analysis to further explore the factors that may contribute to China’s housing bubbles. In addition, Granger causality test is employed to examine the lead/lag relationship between housing bubbles and the variables. The empirical result shows that per-capita disposable incomes and total loans of financial institutions are positively related to China’s housing bubbles. And the housing bubbles in these three cities are negatively related to themselves. In addition, the impact of interest rates on housing bubbles is positive and later turns negative with respect to the magnitude of increasing rates. According to the results of Granger causality tests, Beijing’s housing bubbles are Granger caused by total loans while property bubbles in Shanghai lead personal incomes. Furthermore, housing bubbles in Guangzhou are Granger caused by personal disposable incomes, interest rates and total loans.

估價理論中分離房地價格的原理，可分為土地貢獻說、聯合貢獻說及建物貢獻說，由於土地貢獻說及聯合貢獻說兩者運用常產生爭議，故本文利用89年至92年內政部房地產交易價格簡訊的台北市房地交易資料，根據特徵價格理論，建立不同房地價格分離方法的地價模型，比較以何種分離原則所產生的地價資料較為合理，並進行地價指數建立及公告土地現值評估，與現今相關地價制度比較之。 實證結果發現，在控制相同自變數的地價模型，聯合貢獻說分離地價資料所建立地價模型，其自變數顯著程度、模型解釋力、AIC與BIC值、樣本外估計誤差均較土地貢獻模型佳，故以聯合貢獻說分離房地價格較為合理，此外，土地貢獻說分離地價平均高於聯合貢獻說分離地價13.13%。而與現今公部門分離方法比較上，發現地價調查估計規則的房地分離方法，在建物價格估算上多考量裝潢費用，造成高估房地的建物價格，而其地價模型在自變數顯著程度、模型解釋力、AIC與BIC值均較聯合貢獻模型差，表示以地價調查估計規則所估計地價，並非最佳地價資料，而其分離地價平均低於以聯合貢獻說分離地價7.98%。在地價指數方面，發現以控制土地品質地價指數的趨勢較接近房價指數，且較能確實反映市場情形，其為內政部地價指數不足之處，主要是因內政部未控制選樣品質造成指數趨勢變動偏離所致。 而於公告土地現值評估部分發現，台北市特徵價格模型估計地價與公告土地現值約差三成左右，其與政府說明的公告土地現值與市價間的兩成差距，有所差距，由分離方法價差可知政府以較低的分離地價進行地價區段劃分，再定出公告土地現值，反而使公告土地現值與市價間的差距越拉越大。而於各變數的價差中發現臨街關係與使用分區的價差有逐漸增加的趨勢，可見公告土地現值評估於個別因素修正不足，於區位因素上則無價差增加的情形，故公告土地現值評估於區域因素修正較為足夠。

在探討願付價格的條件評估法中一種常被使用的方法為“雙界二分選擇法”，並且一個隱含的假設是，所有研究對象皆願意支付一個合理的金額。然而對於某些商品，有些人也許願意支付任何金額；相對的，有些人可能不願意支付任何金額。分析願付價格時若不考慮這兩類極端反應者，則可能會得到一個偏誤的願付價格。本篇研究中，我們提出一個“混合模型”來處理此議題，其中以多元邏輯斯迴歸模型來描述不同反應者的比例，並以加速失敗時間模型來估計願意支付合理金額者其願付價格的分布。此外，我們以關於治療高血壓新藥之願付價格實例，作為實證分析。 / One commonly used method in contingent valuation (CV) survey for WTP (willingness-to-pay) is the “double-bound dichotomous choice approach” and an implicit assumption is that all study subjects are willing to pay a reasonable price. However, for certain goods, some subjects may be willing to pay any price for them, while some others may be unwilling to pay any price. Without considering these two types of the extreme respondents, a wrongly estimated WTP value will be obtained. We propose a “mixture model” to handle the issues in this study, in which a multinomial logistic model is taken to specify the proportions of different respondents and an accelerated failure time model is utilized to describe the distribution of WTP price for subjects who are willing to pay a reasonable price. In addition, an empirical example on WTP prices for a new hypertension treatment is provided to illustrate the proposed methods.

石油是維持人類生存必需的商品，是容易運輸、儲存、使用的能源。石油價格的漲跌，將直接或間接影響經濟成長與物價水準。以公司營運來說，對海運業、航空業、石油公司等石油高度相關行業來說，購油成本一直佔據公司總成本相當大的比例，因此石油價格的變動，將使得會計年度內的購油成本高低相差甚大，進而影響公司整體營運利潤，因此購油決策重要性自不待言。當預測油價會上漲時，則公司將會以較低的石油價格購入較多的石油事先加以貯存或使用，以降低全年購油成本與分散風險。本文嘗試著導入模糊統計的概念並建立多變量多階自廻歸模糊時間數列模式，以期應用在油價之預測。實證方面則收集紐約商品交易所 (NYMEX: New York Mercantile Exchange) 的每日原油收盤價原始資料，針對原油價格進行模糊時間數列分析與預測，並比較命中率、誤差率與準確度。相信這對於購油風險控管及降低成本，提高公司盈餘深具意義。

台灣各都會區因經濟與社會發展程度不同，使各都會區房地產市場特性有所差異，住宅價格波動情形亦有所不同。過去於台灣雖已有許多文獻探討過區域經濟與社會變數和區域住宅價格之關聯，卻少有文獻討論不同區域彼此間住宅價格差異與區域經濟與社會變數差異關係，且多數探討區域房地產市場文獻亦僅將研究範圍限縮在單一都會區，對於全國都會區之綜合性討論較為缺乏。是故，本文以台灣六大都會區為研究對象，探討各都會區彼此間住宅價格差異時間與空間變動情形，分析其與各都會區彼此間經濟與社會發展差異關係，進一步釐清當中之主要影響因素。 本研究使用台北市、新北市、桃竹都會區、台中都會區、台南都會區與高雄都會區等六大都會區由1993年至2010年共270筆住宅價格兩兩相除之比例資料，透過縱橫資料模型(Panel Data Model)探討國內六大都會區，兩兩間住宅價格比例變動於經濟與社會面的主要影響因素。實證顯示，當兩兩都會區經常性所得、知識密集服務業就業機會、公共投資、交通可及性、辦公室使用執照樓地板面積、治安狀況與空氣品質差異越大，住宅價格差異亦隨之擴張。且各都會區知識密集服務業就業機會、公共投資、交通可及性與經常性所得落差對住宅價格差異影響最大。此外，兩兩都會區住宅價格差異亦受到其地區特性與景氣影響。建議政府可透過於弱勢都會區發展適宜知識密集服務業發展之環境，吸引相關產業進駐，提供當地更多知識密集服務業就業機會，降低國內都會區所得落差。此外，應合理分配各都會區公共投資金額，強化弱勢都會區大眾運輸服務水準，以降低國內各都會區住宅價格懸殊情形。 / In Taiwan, because of the dissimilar levels of urban development, housing prices in different metropolitan areas change in sundry ways. This paper uses panel data analysis to identify the relationship between the development gap and the difference in housing prices in metropolitan areas of Taiwan during 1993-2010. The empirical results reveal that the income gap, the employment of knowledge-intensive services gap, the mobility gap, the public investment gap, the office quantity gap, the public security gap, and the air quality gap had significant effects on the difference in housing prices, and the difference in housing prices is also influenced by local characteristics and real estate cycles. Besides, we also discover that the employment of knowledge-intensive services gap and the public investment gap are two key determinants of the difference in housing prices.

本研究是利用代理人基模型 (Agent-Based model) 結合遺傳規劃法(genetic programming) 在模組化經濟體系下價格動態對市占率之影響。現今企業多數以市占率作為公司在市場上表現的主要指標，如果擁有高市占率的廠商，可以確定在這產業中生存。以往的文獻顯示模組化經濟下高價格廠商在市場上的表現會優於低價格廠商，取決重要因素為品質，因為高價產品通常品質也較高，容易取得消費者喜愛。本研究想探討是否在這個體系下，消費者所考量的都是以品質高低來決定是否購買產品，是否會有過去以往的價格競爭情形，以及在價格動態體系，市場所呈現的風貌如何。本研究設計39組的加成率參數組，並依據兩間廠商的決策上製作成價格動態矩陣圖表。試圖以這些已知參數組與線性內插法所預測之市占率的參數組進行分析。此研究模擬中發現，在模組化經濟下，價格競爭並不一定會讓市占率趨向於某一點均衡，也可能會趨向於一條路徑上。而且不一定是高價位的廠商會有很大機會獲得市場，也沒有所謂的贏家擁有超高市占率的情況產生。 / This study is the use of agent-based model combined with genetic programming to explore the impact of the price dynamics for the market share in the modular economy. Nowadays, the majority of enterprises use market share as the key performance indicators in the market, if the enterprise has a high market share, it can be determined to survive in this industry. The previous literature shows that manufacturers of high prices on the market under the modular economy will be better than the low-price manufacturers, depending on the important factors for quality. Expensive products are usually higher quality, easily favorite by consumers. My study is to investigate whether consumers consider in this system are based on the level of quality to decide to buy the product or not, and whether there will be price competitive situation, as well as the outlook presented by the market price dynamics system. In this paper, we design 39 markup rate’s parameter set and making price dynamic matrix diagram in accordance with the decisions of two manufacturers. Trying to analyze these known parameter set and the parameter set of the market share predicted by the linear interpolation. The simulation of the study found that in the modular economy price competition does not necessarily make the market share tends to a equilibrium point, or it may also tend to be a equilibrium path. But not necessarily high-priced manufacturers get to the market, there is no so-called winners with higher market share.

大眾捷運系統帶來之快捷與便利，使其成為許多都會區民眾依賴之交通工具。捷運系統對鄰近不動產交通可及性提升，所伴隨之便利性將透過資本化效果反映於其價格之上，帶動周邊不動產價格上漲，過去不論國內外關於捷運對周邊房價影響之研究，實證結果亦多支持捷運對於房價有正面影響，且該影響隨著與捷運車站距離增加而遞減。捷運房價效果的區位差異與類型差異過去雖已有研究論及，但對捷運房價效果差異與其變化趨勢未能有明確細緻描述。此外，該等研究均忽略空間相關因素，將影響其估計結果。 　　本文使用國內某金融機構2007、2008年間台北都會區內台北捷運初期路網沿線車站周邊住宅為實證對象，應用空間迴歸模型檢視捷運系統對鄰近住宅價格之影響效果。實證結果顯示，就整體樣本而言捷運對房價確有正向影響但並不如想像之大，且該影響隨區位與類型之不同確有差異。 / Many previous studies have showed that metro system has a positive impact on the property values due to its accessibility benefits and the effect should decline as distance increases. While the pattern of the change and its difference between stations located in different locations has yet not been fully discussed, most of the studies failed to allow for spatial autocorrelation over space. This research uses spatial econometrics to estimate a residential housing model that considers spatial autocorrelation. The empirical results show the difference in the price effect of metro stations between urban and suburban areas does exist. The effect tends to get stronger in certain area, the closer the property lies within to the suburban area the greater the effect is. Also, we find price gaps between different metro station categories. Generally, underground stations and transfer stations have greater positive effect on residential property values.

本研究以Hotelling之線形城市模型為基礎模型，但對運輸成本由消費者負擔之假設改為由生產者負擔，廠商以運送貨物至消費者所在地之形式負擔運輸成本，而非直接補貼消費者之運輸成本。在此新的模型架構之下，本研究對廠商是否能夠向消費者價格歧視，以及是否有買賣承諾存在，兩者組合產生之四種情況分別進行探討。最後得出在廠商不能夠對消費者價格歧視，但無買賣承諾存在時，以及在廠商能對消費者價格歧視，無論買賣承諾存在與否時，兩廠商會設廠於線形城市之1/4及3/4處，達到社會福利極大之均衡。但若廠商不得採價格歧視，而有買賣承諾之存在時，兩廠商會選擇極小化差異，也就是設廠於線形城市之中心點，此時將造成社會的無謂損失。 / This research is based on Hotelling model. The only difference is that the firms have to pay transportation cost in this research. The firms absorb transportation cost in two ways. One way is the firms accept orders from the consumer and send the commodities to them. The other ways is the firms sent the commodities to some chain stores and the consumers will go to buy them in their neighborhoods. Since the transportation cost is decreased almost to zero and thus can be neglected, it is just like the consumers do not have pay it. This research considers four conditions under this new structure -whether the firms can price discriminate or not and whether there exists a commitment between the consumers and firms- combined together. If the firms can price discriminates, the firms will settle down on the 1/4 and 3/4 of the linear city. But if the firms cannot price discriminates, when the commitment exits, they will still choose their location on 1/4 and 3/4, or they will minimize differenciation.

This study extends research on pricing methods of Multinational Corporation (MNC) from the financial aspect to managerial perspective, creates the term managerial mechanisms and examines theories with actual organizational changes applied by the case company, the leading IPC provider, Company A. In this research, the researcher first identifies determinants of E2E pricing (market pricing), then defines the five components (organizational structure, information sharing, coordination mechanisms, management control system, and authority delegation) and lists elements within each component to form the managerial mechanism model between HQ-Subsidiary as the reference to align with market price determinants. With the degree of centralization being the core of the model, the analysis shows that information sharing between HQ-Subsidiary is the key to a successful E2E pricing decision; to do so an MNC has to have an organizational goal in parallel with subsidiary interests, and proper authority delegation while exerting control and coordination with flexibility. This research presents that organizational changes made by Company A in coordination with E2E pricing method do follow the managerial mechanism model proposed by the researcher. Specifically, the analysis first describes the pricing method and managerial mechanisms of the case company; second, managerial issues are recognized and linked with the model developed by the researcher; finally, corresponding changes Company A made are examined by literature theories. This research also reveals that the application of proper measures is simply the initiative of organizational changes; an MNC has to anticipate internal reluctance in order to carry out the optimal result of its managerial mechanisms.

第一章緒論。指出研究動機、目的、範圍與方法。 第二章對農業生產成本加以分析。主要探討農業生產因素的供給成本，同時對農業生 產成本概念與內容作介紹，再者對農業生產成本作評價。 第三章探討農業生產的收益。包括農業生產收益概念的介紹，析影響收益的因素，及 對農產品價格作評價。 第四章對環原利率的決定作一個分析與檢討。主要論及利率結構，然後對有關還原利 率之幾種主張加以評述，接著再探討農地收益還原利率的求取方法。 第五章為收益環原法的運用。包括農地收益價格計算例及農地估價時收益還原法的採 行問題。 第六章結論。主要在判定農地收益價格之求取在實際作業上的可行性。