本文探討評價可解約分紅保單（Participating Policy）。該保單隱含二個重要的選擇權：分紅選擇權與解約選擇權。分紅選擇權為一歐式買權，解約選擇權可視為美式賣權。Bacinello（2003）使用CRR模型，計算解約選擇權的近似解，然而，Bacinello（2003）假設無風險利率為常數。本文主要探討如何利用無套利評價法，在隨機利率模型下，發展二維度之CRR模型，利用此模型，求得分紅選擇權與解約選擇權之公平價格，並討論利率的波動與長期走勢對該保單的選擇權的價格之影響。本文發現，保單之投資參考組合的波動，將對分紅選擇權的價格造成影響，而利率的波動會導致解約選擇權價格上升；當未來預期利率上升時，分紅選擇權與解約選擇權亦隨之上升。此評價模式可作為保險公司發行分紅保單與避險策略之參考。 / Bacinello (2003a) employed Cox-Ross-Rubinstein model (CRR model, 1979) to numerically calculate the fair value of a participating policy containing a surrender option. Bacinello assumed a constant rate of return on risk-free assets. However, this study proposes a two-dimensional CRR model in a stochastic interest rate model as a means of providing a numerical method for contract pricing. The two-dimensional CRR model converges rapidly and achieves similar results to Monte Carlo simulation. Two-dimensional CRR models are used to analyze the importance and sensitivity of a stochastic interest rate model for the policy. Zero coupon bond volatility is an essential parameter in the surrender option, and reference portfolio volatility is important for pricing the participating option. The participating and surrender options are more valuable given upwards trending interest rates than constant or downwards trending rates.

台灣過去的競價制度與行情揭示受到兩檔限制的規範，導致撮合效率與交易公平性受到質疑，而部分未成交的最佳資訊也可能受到隱藏，導致真實資訊無法及時揭露，誤導投資人錯誤解讀資訊，反而有助長殺跌的疑慮。 近年來全球追求資訊透明化的趨勢使得我國的兩檔限制備受爭議，也引發一股改革的風潮。因此，台灣證券交易所於民國91年7月進行交易制度的調整，取消自民國74年來沿用的兩檔限制，而以瞬間價格穩定機制當作穩定股市的措施，並進一步增加未成交價量資訊的揭示，提升整體市場資訊揭示的質與量。 本文以上述的交易制度調整為研究主題，探討市場在面臨穩定機制改變與市場透明度增加的情況下，其價格行為之變化。藉此評估此次交易制度的施行成效，並分別選取市值最高與最低的30支個股為衡量績效指標值的對象，以瞭解新的交易制度對於所有股票皆有相同影響。 結果發現，就第一階段的取消兩檔、輔以瞬間價格穩定措施與揭露一檔的政策而言，整體樣本的波動性為顯著增加，而高低市值的股票則有截然不同的反應。低市值群組在交易制度調整訊息宣告時享有正的顯著報酬，且在市場績效的驗證上發現Hei & Heubel模型衡量的流動性獲得改善，支持流動性改善有助於提升證券價值的說法，顯示取消兩檔限制輔以瞬間價格穩定措施，並提升市場透明度的作法對低市值群組是較有利的。相對的，高市值群組則發現較不利的證據，衡量宣告日的證券異常報酬為不顯著，流動性與波動性指標則明顯轉差。此外，第二階段的揭露五檔將普遍提升市場整體的效率性，其中以低市值群組最為明顯，此外在波動性與流動性方面，發現高低市值有很明顯的對比與抵換關係，高市值為流動性轉差但價格波動減少，低市值則相反，綜合為整體樣本的變化則不明顯。 推論上述實證結果，可能原因在於高低市值群組本身特性不同，導致相同的交易制度變革有不同的影響。高市值本身屬於企業規模大、股價較高，資訊透明度與交易較熱絡的一個族群，而低市值股票為傳統產業股居多，為股市中較不受投資人關愛、流動性較低，資訊不對稱程度也較高的股票。因而，過去在兩檔限制下，揭示代理價格、隱藏真實資訊，導致投資人錯誤解讀資訊者，應屬低市值股票較為嚴重，預期在取消兩檔限制後，資訊不對稱提升的程度相對來的高。此外，從第二階段揭露五檔的效果看來，高低市值的效率性皆改善，但在流動性與波動性方面卻呈現對比的抵換關係，顯示增加市場透明度對於市場績效無絕對的好壞。

品牌內垂直非價格限制，一般係指地域限制與顧客限制，通認為製造商建立有效率、具忠誠度經銷通路的良好競爭手段。製造商藉由此類限制，抑制下游經銷商對單一品排牌產品彼此相互競爭，使得經銷商間品牌內競爭減弱，而隨著降低競爭，經銷商則有能力提高產品價格，增加銷售利潤。相對於製造商而言，增加經銷商能增加經銷商促銷其產品的意願，總體來說，製造商也能增加利潤。尤其，對品牌弱勢、或新進市場的製造商，維持下游經銷商銷售利潤是刺激經銷商促銷、幫助品牌建立的有效方式。此外，品牌內垂直非價格限制亦可解決搭便車問題，製造商因此能確保下游經銷商之銷售不會受到搭便車者的折扣行為而受到影響。 品牌內垂直非價格限制雖有上述功能，惟畢竟其為以合意方式限制品牌內競爭，故對強調「維護自由競爭機能」的反托拉斯法來說，仍有所疑慮。雖說，是否管制此類限制，學說上仍有爭論。事實上，目前多數國家皆將品牌內垂直限制列入管制。但也因為其對競爭是否有影響並未有絕對定論下，如何管制、具體準則如何，似乎仍沒有形成一套明確的準則。尤其在我國，因公平交易法施行未久，實務案例累積數量有限，離標準的建立似仍有一段距離。本文認為，無論從立法歷史、實務管制經驗、經濟理論發達程度與相關探討文獻數量等觀點，美國法確為我國法往後執法的良好參考，適度參酌該國法經驗應有助我國法執法基準之建立。有鑑於此，本文以深入介紹美國法管制品牌內垂直限制為方法，內容中不乏對美國重要司法判決與學說理論之論述，希冀藉此作為我國往後立法、執法的借鏡。 品牌內垂直限制因僅影響品牌內競爭，故美國在Sylvania(1977)案，最高法院已確定將垂直非價格限制以「合理原則」審查。在合理原則下，訴訟原告必須負擔極為沈重的舉證責任，始能獲得勝訴。故往後原告多將品牌內垂直非價格限制定位為「當然違法」之行為類型，如水平限制、垂直約價(垂直價格限制)、聯合杯葛等，以求勝訴。垂直非價格限制與水平限制、垂直價格限制、聯合杯葛如何區分，為即具探討實益的問題。 品牌內垂直限制依芝加哥學派的見解，不論其限制內容為價格或非價格，一律為有助競爭、有效率的競爭方式。芝加哥學派的見解，對近幾十年美國反托拉斯法院，有相當重要的影響。故對芝加哥學派的思想，實有必要加以介紹，始能窺知美國法之全貌。除經濟理論外，從美國法院判決不難看出，非經濟因素對垂直非價格限制合法性的影響實不容忽視。雖說美國法院近來於反托拉斯案件中，多以經濟分析方式決定系爭限制之合法性，但事實上，倫理、社會、道德等價值，最高法院仍無法完全擺脫。而經濟、非經濟因素如何影響、甚至決定品牌內垂直非價格限制合法性，亦為本文的討論重點。 按我國管制品牌內垂直非價格限制之法規，為公平交易法第十九條第六款。該條款性質屬「限制競爭法」領域，但體例上卻列於不正競爭法，似有失當。又，構成該條款之不法限制須有「有限制競爭之虞」之共通要件、且具「不正當限制」之個別要件。此二要件如何具體適用、相互間有何影響，則有檢討之必要。依公平會見解，此二要件判斷標準相若，並無法區分。在如此見解下，導致公平會於執法時僅對「不正當限制」為檢驗，忽略對「有限制競爭之虞」作進一步分析。而是否「不正當限制」又常以無法標準化之非經濟因素，如不公平地位、限制相對人經營自由，為審查重心，卻忽略了限制競爭法管制的基礎—競爭機能受損害。故本文除評論此不合理的現象外，並參酌美國法的執法經驗，提出本文對我國法往後立法與執法的建言。 / Intrabrand vertical nonprice restraints, including territorial and customer restraints, are regarded as those of the best ways that can help a manufacturer to make the distribution of his products efficient. These restraints can lessen or eliminate the intrabrand competition of single manufacturer’s products. Therefore, the downstream dealers could make more profits by raising price. As far as a manufacturer is concerned, these restraints can stimulate dealers’ will of promoting his products by providing showrooms, more service, personnel and so on. After all, the more quantity of a manufacturer’s products dealers sell, the more profits a manufacturer earns. Especially when a manufacturer has weak brand or is new in the market, a manufacturer imposing intrabrand vertical nonprice restrains can build its brand rapidly and easily. Besides, they can solve the problem of free-riding between dealers. Although intrabrand vertical nonprice restraints have functions of improving distributive efficiency of manufacturer’s products, they are made by agreement between manufacturer and dealer to eliminate competition, and may break antitrust laws that preserve the mechanism of competition. In fact, most of the countries in the world have laws to regulate them. Unfortunately, there is no firm and convincible theory can explain whether intrabrand vertical nonprice restraints harm competition or not. Because of this situation, it’s hard for the antitrust bureau to form a standard of enforcing the antitrust law related to them. Especially in Taiwan, Fair Trade Act (FTA) was made in 1991, so the number of cases accumulated by antitrust bureau, Fair Trade Commission (FTC), is not enough to build a concrete guideline to solve the complexity of intrabrand vertical nonprice restraints. It may be helpful for us to see the foreign regulation toward intrabrand vertical nonprice restraints. Take U.S. antitrust law for instance, there are a long history of regulating experience, abundance of economic theories and essays related to antitrust law. Regarding this point, U.S. law perhaps is a good model to Taiwan. Because intrabrand vertical restraints only effect competition of single brand, U.S. Supreme Court in Sylvania (1977) evaluates them by rule of reason. Under rule of reason, the plaintiff must show what damage of competition the restraint at issue has did. Because of being in heavy burden of evidence, the plaintiff is actually hard to win in any case. Later, many plaintiffs who want to get rid of the burden of evidence claim the restraint at issue as a per se illegal type such as parallel collusion, resale price maintenance (RPM), group boycott, but most of them fail. According to Chicago School, intrabrand restraints (price or nonprice) in all circumstances is procompetitive and efficient. The economic theory of Chicago School has had great influence on antitrust decision of Supreme Court in past decades, so it is essential to introduce Chicago School for studying the U.S. antitrust law. Addition to economic theory, non-economic concerns such as protection of small retailers and consumers also have some effect on Supreme Court. But unlike economic theory, non-economic concerns are usually involved with moral and social values, and not only hard to evaluate with economic concepts but with each other. Therefore, Chicago School’s advocates like Bork and Posner claim in antitrust case a judge should ignore about non-economic concerns. It’s, however, still a dispute between scholars. In Taiwan, regulating vertical nonprice restraints is Article 19(6) of FTA. Theoretically this Article belongs to antitrust law’s territory, but legislators put it mistakenly in ChapterⅢ “unfair competition.” Besides, there are two elements to meet Article 19(6), general and particular element. In other words, an illegal vertical restraint must meet “which is likely to lessen competition or to impede fair competition” called general element and “limiting its trading counterparts' business activity improperly by means of the requirements of business engagement” called particular element. According to the opinion of TFC, general and particular element can’t be distinguished from each other and should be judged by the same standard. Because general element is about the concepts of the market and competition and hard to investigate, in terms of the cost of enforcing laws, FTC will naturally judge Article 19(6) of FTA by focusing the particular element. But what’s “improper” in the particular element is not so clear and usually is involved with non-economic concerns such as the freedom of dealers’, the consumer’s rights of option. In fact, from seeing cases made by FTC, we can conclude that FTC usually put non-economic concerns in a key role in cases and ignore economic concerns. It’s a serious problem we need to discuss. After all, economic concern in the U.S. antitrust law is one of the most important reasons to punish the behavior of agreement. At the end of this thesis, we not only get a conclusion but present some advice of FTA and FTC by comparing with U.S. laws.

本篇論文以分析師對未來公司盈餘預測為基礎，使用剩餘所得模型來對台灣股票市場做實證研究。在這個架構下，我們比較了剩餘所得模型評價法與各種不同的傳統評價法對台灣50成分股的估算表現。 本篇論文的實證發現，內含價值對股票價格比率(intrinsic value to price ratio)對台灣50成分股的預測，在中短期的投資期間內相較於傳統評價法，預測力最高。帳面價值對股票價格比率(book value to price ratio)則在長期的投資期間內，預測力顯著高於其他評價法。盈餘對價格比率(earnings to price ratio)預測力最低。而將所有評價法一同列入考慮時，則發現並沒有任何一種評價法能明顯主宰其他不同的評價法，各種評價方法在預測未來股市表現是互補的。 本篇論文進一步探討剩餘所得模型評價法對台灣50成分股的交易策略，發現以剩餘所得模型估算出的內含價值為標準來進行交易，能得到正報酬。而考慮會計保守原則的模型報酬率能顯著高於沒有將會計保守原則列入考慮的模型。 / We provide an empirical assessment of the residual income valuation model bases on analysts’ forecast data in Taiwan stock market. In this framework, we compare the performance of alternative estimates of intrinsic value with traditional valuation estimates for the component stocks of TSEC Taiwan 50 Index. According to our results, intrinsic value-to-price ratio is a reliable predictor of market returns over short-to-mid period and book-to-price ratios is a reliable predictor over long horizons. Unlike the two ratios, earnings-to-price ratio has little predictive power for returns in Taiwan stock market. Furthermore, intrinsic value-to-price ratio does not dominate traditional valuation but provide another perspective of stock valuation, and we can have a better forecast of future return of Taiwan stock market with consideration of all valuation estimates.

在很多資產泡沫的案例中，我們發現貨幣供給與信用皆伴隨資產價格飆漲而增加；但其通貨膨脹問題卻不嚴重。這似乎與傳統貨幣理論之概念─高貨幣成長刺激通膨─有所抵觸。我們推論在資產價格飆升時，民眾會增加其持有之貨幣以待適當時機購買資產，此種融通金融商品的貨幣即為俗稱之「游資」。游資增加將吸收部份貨幣擴張，因而減少最終流入商品市場的貨幣，緩和通貨膨漲。本論文建立一個Cash-in-Advance模型，發現當經濟體之貸款利率遠高於存款利率，及人民預期未來經濟持續進步時，確實可能發生上述現象。 / While some bubble economies, in which asset prices rise, experience exaggerated money and credit expansion, they often face merely moderate inflationary problems. It is likely that the increased money supply does not fully enter the commodity market and result in hyper-inflation; some of that increase may become investors’ money that waits for future investment opportunities and finally goes into the equity market. By utilizing a cash-in-advance model with a banking system and heterogeneous household expectations, this paper demonstrates the existence of this special phenomenon under the necessary condition by which, the loan rate is significantly higher than the deposit rate, and what the public believes in requires a persistent economic growth.

近年來餐廳總會在節日時推出比平日價錢貴上1.5倍到5倍的套餐，然而這樣的套餐不但價錢比較高，有時還只有一種套餐能選擇，如此與過往為方便消費者而推出套餐的初衷背道而馳的節日套餐，消費者卻仍是趨之若鶩。故本研究希望找出是什麼樣的人格特質驅使消費者願意在節日時接受比以往更高的價格。 本研究根據文獻探討的結果，發現節日套餐這樣商品主要是為了滿足消費者與人建立、維持、深化人際關係的情感，而這樣的情感也確實會成為消費者提高自身價格接受程度的原因。故，本研究以「人際需求動機」、「人口變項」為自變項，來衡量其是否會影響消費者的價格接受程度。 研究結果顯示人際需求動機越高者對於節日套餐價格接受程度確實越高，但若將眾多因素以多元迴歸分析之，則還是以經濟能力為主要影響因素。顯示為滿足人際需求的情感確實會促使消費者提高價格接受程度，但仍會受限於經濟能力。

本研究係採用桃園工業區土地實際交易價格作為實證對象，運用特徵價格理論，探討影響工業區土地價格的因素。因桃園縣之地理區位係處於內湖科技園區、新竹科學園區兩大產業聚集重鎮之中間位置，因此亦分析桃園縣輻輳區位與前述兩園區之距離是否成為其地價影響因素之一。故除將一般文獻研究對價格有所影響之宗地條件及區位條件納入分析外，亦將工業區管理服務、產業聚集及桃園縣輻輳位置等要素，測試是否亦為工業區土地價格的影響因素。而研究採用的方法係以特徵價格函數為基礎，工業區地價為應變數，可能影響工業區地價的因素為自變數，並使用一般化的Box-Cox轉換函數測試各種函數型態，最後選擇一最適函數型態進行特徵價格的估算。 實證結果發現，有關工業區之宗地條件中移轉土地面積、臨街路寬、臨街關係等3項變數為工業區地價影響因素。而在區位條件中，與桃園縣政府距離、與內湖科技園區距離等2項變數，對工業區地價具有負向的關係，即與縣政府或內科距離越遠，地價越低。再者，藉以代表產業聚集指標的鄉鎮市製造業勞動力聚集比例亦通過模式檢定，與地價呈現正向關係，顯示勞動力聚集比例越高，能提高廠商設廠的意願，增加工業用地的需求，有助於地價的提昇。此外，有設置服務中心的工業區，因能提供管理服務，對廠商較具有吸引力，反映於地價結構上，是呈現正向關係。 最後則依據實證研究結果，提出以下建議，在產業聚集方面，政府應協助廠商形成產業聚集氛圍，不僅有利於工業區地價的提升，更可提高產業的競爭力；在工業區管理服務的提供方面，政府應由開發工業區導向轉為管理服務導向，由工業區內所設置的服務中心，提供完善管理服務，創造工業區土地價格的提昇。 / This study aims to test the affecting factors of Taoyuan industrial land prices by constructing hedonic pricing functions. The empirical data is complied from market prices. The importance of Taoyuan which is located between Neihu Technology Park and Hsinchu Science Park, lies in an center place of two industrial parks above -mentioned. In order to emphasize the importance of Taoyuan’s location,two variables of distances to Neihu Technology Park and distances to Hsinchu Science Park are tested in this paper. Otherwise, the conditions of lots, location, industrial parks’ management service, industrial agglomeration are considered affecting factors of industrial land prices and all tested in this study. In accordance with hedonic pricing theory, a Box and Cox transformation was applied to the dependent variable to test functional forms. This method was used to identify the preferable functional form for the study data. The preferable functional form that we tested in this study is the basis for evaluating industrial land prices. Based on model testing, this study indicates that variables related to conditions of lots, locational attributes, industrial agglomeration and industrial parks’ management service determine land prices. Variables related to conditions of lots, such as size, the width of street, and a street lot determine land prices. Variables related to locational attributes, such as distances to Neihu Technology Park and distances to local government administration of Taoyuan are negatively related to land price, implying that each additional kilometer of distance from Neihu Technology Park and the nearest center of local government reduces the price of a parcel of land. Moreover, the variable of the percentage of the manufacturing employees related to industrial agglomeration is positively related to land prices; that is, the percentage of the manufacturing employees is higher, it indicates that more firms located together in certain place. And this behavior helped firms to achieve profits from industrial agglomeration economy. And the prices of such land should be higher. Besides, the variable of industrial parks’ management service is positively related to land price.It indicates that industrial parks which have service centers should attract more firms to locate together by management service provided and the prices of such land should be higher. According to empirical results, this study proposes that government should promote the establishment of industrial clustering phenomenon. It is helpful for raising industrial land prices and industrial competitiveness. Otherwise, government should shift development polices to management services of industrial parks, and supply thorough management services to raise land prices.

在大眾運輸導向（Transit-Oriented Development, TOD）所推行的捷運站區土地混合使用政策的背景下，本研究探討住商混合使用對於住宅房價之影響。本研究之研究假設有三：第一，不同空間尺度的混合使用，會對房價形成不同的影響；第二，其他土地使用種類越多，住宅房價越高；第三，商業使用之量體大小，對於房價形成不同的影響。本研究以台北市住宅為研究對象，研究時間為2001年，樣本數670 份。分析工具包含運用地理資訊系統(Geographic Information Systems, GIS)進行空間變數處理，以及多元迴歸分析（Multiple regression analysis）進行統計分析。研究成果驗證研究假設，於同棟及同街廓的空間尺度中，住商混合對住宅房價造成下降的影響，而相鄰街廓的住商混合使用使得住宅房價提升；且相鄰街廓混合使用種類越多，住宅房價越高。研究結果可做為政府擬定土地使用管制計畫之參考。

成本法為估價三大方法之一，其中折舊率之掌握至今仍無定論，Malpezzi et al.（1987）、Smith（2004）指出，由於土地無實體損壞及功能性退化，故利用特徵價格法分析折舊時，分析主體包含土地，將造成折舊的低估，而國內先前研究亦指出，分析主體包含土地，可能是使其分析結果不合常理的原因。本研究採特徵價格法，以台南市透天建物為對象，實證結果與Malpezzi等之論點一致，即不包含土地之價格函數，確有較高的折舊率，且呈現凸向原點之折舊型態。不動產價格模型亦顯示，建物壽命前期價格逐年下跌，但至後期將反轉向上，反應出土地之再開發價值。 此外，依不動產估價技術規則之規定，求取建物價格時似乎未考慮外部性退化之價值減損，或將其視為與剩餘經濟耐用年數相關。然而Colwell and Trefzger（1994）指出負面外部性將同時影響土地與建物，本文實證結果發現，外部性退化除對土地價格造成影響外，事實上對建物價格亦產生價格減損效果。此外，外部性特徵對於建物價格之影響視兩者距離相鄰程度而定，故不應將外部性退化視為與屋齡相關，而於考量後推估建物剩餘經濟耐用年數。 / In this paper, we verify that estimated depreciation rate is higher when the land price has been extracted from single-family house prices in Tainan, and the depreciation pattern of building is convex to the origin. We also find that property prices will decrease in the early years and then turn to increase; this phenomenon may testify the benefit in land redevelopment. Moreover, this study shows that external obsolescence would reduce not only the land price but also the building price when the surrounding is unattractive, and the decreasing figures caused by external obsolescence shouldn’t base on house age, but distance between house and unattractive objects.

行動電話基地台設施近年來已逐漸成為一另類「鄰避設施」，然而其對於周遭不動產價值減損程度如何，國內尚缺乏相關研究。本文首先採用問卷調查法以瞭解居民對於行動電話基地台的相關看法及居民認知行動電話基地台對於住宅價格的影響程度；其次運用特徵價格法對於實際不動產成交價格資料，以迴歸分析方式驗證行動電話基地台對周遭住宅價格是否有影響及其影響程度。 研究結果發現無論問卷調查或特徵價格實證分析皆顯示行動電話基地台對周遭住宅價格影響是負面的，問卷調查的受訪者普遍對基地台設施存有負面觀感，且有高達54.4﹪的受訪者認為該設施對周遭住宅價格的負面影響程度在10﹪以上；而在特徵價格實證分析方面，研究地區內房屋所在樓層較高者（七樓以上）相較於較低者（七樓以下），其住宅價格更容易受到行動電話基地台設施的負面影響，而住宅價格因距離行動電話基地台遠近因素所受到折損程度平均約為2.35﹪，惟行動電話基地台設施之可視性因素對住宅價格的影響並不顯著。 / The cellular phone towers has become another NIMBY, although the absence of domestic research for how detract from real estate's value. The article first use the Questionnaire Investigation method’s way to realize that people’s opinion of cellular phone towers and cognition of the effective level of cellular phone towers on house’s price ; secondly use Hedonic Price Method on real estate's value, by using Regression Analysis’s way to prove the impact of cellular phone towers on house’s price . In which we found no matter Questionnaire Investigation or Regression Analysis both announces that the effective level of cellular phone towers on house’s price is negative, there are up to 54.4% of subjects involved in the survey though that the negative influence is above 10% ; on Hedonic Price Method’s way, the house whereabouts higher stairs on the area of researchs, its price is more easy effected by cellular phone towers than the lower one. And the house's price is effected by the distance of cellular phone towers that the average of detractive level is about 2.35%.Only the effect on cellular phone towers of the cause of visual by house price was not broad.