本論文試圖從歷史及文化的角度切入，介紹1920-1930年代俄國的文學團體及重要的住房問題。接著以文本分析、傳記分析及歷史文化語境分析布爾加科夫作品《大師與瑪格麗特》中的文學團體「莫文聯」（МАССОЛИТ）及作品中出現的莫斯科住房問題。 　　論文的第一部分為緒論，分別為研究動機與目的、研究途徑與方法、文獻回顧與研究架構及章節說明。第一章「作家與時代」將從歷史角度出發，說明蘇聯1920-193年代的社會文化現實，接著介紹布爾加科夫的創作主題思想並進一步帶出布氏的當代生活，其中包括布氏與統治者的關係及其日常生活問題。第二章「《大師與瑪格麗特》中「文學團體」的形象分析」，以史實及文化語境為背景，探討文本中出現的文學團體現象。並於第三節〈團體與個人衝突的思考──論大師的命運〉中對照主角大師與「莫文聯」，進一步闡述創作個體在時代中所遭遇的悲劇。第三章「映現當代生活──《大師與瑪格麗特》中住房問題的探討」陳述「住房問題」的起因與當時此問題造成的社會現象，以解釋由莫文聯主席之死產生的「住房戰爭」，以及瑪格麗特、大師住家等空間議題所引發的「私領域」問題之思考。最後結論針對前三章所做的陳述與分析作一總結。 關鍵詞：布爾加科夫、文學團體、《大師與瑪格麗特》、住房問題、日常生活

北韓問題是二十世紀延續至今卻始終未能解決的複雜議題，這是因為牽涉的因素眾多：南北韓、周邊國家以及國際的考量使「維持現狀」與「模糊」政策成為處理北韓問題可以接受的模式。但事實上，吾人必須認知到在此議題上，最重要的主角仍是北韓與美國，但顯然雙方各有盤算而不能或不願直接解決。因此本文旨在探討2001至2011年美國對北韓之政策，且嘗試在現今相關領域的多數美國立場中，盡可能尋求以相對公允、同理心的角度分析問題，而非美國觀點的一言堂。本文以法國戰略學家薄富爾(André Beaufre)之「行動戰略」(Strategy of Action) 理論作為研究途徑，輔以大量相關數據資料及專著，用意在於平衡地討論美國戰略並批判其中好壞。 本文認為，小布希與歐巴馬政府對北韓政策目標一致，但戰略有所不同。受制於北韓核報復攻擊、中東戰事、經濟與他國因素，美國難以動武直取北韓，因此必須從軍事外的選項著手。筆者從軍事、政治、經濟與外交面向，以政治診斷(political diagnosis)及戰略診斷(strategic diagnosis)探討兩屆政府對北韓之行動方案。小布希和歐巴馬政府在戰略應用上符合薄富爾的觀點，但在架構面上卻有缺失，最終由於無法促使中國相助，以及自身立場的謬誤，導致兩屆政府北韓政策之失誤。 / The North Korea issue remains unresolved, and the only acceptable options for the neighbor countries are the status quo policy and the policy of deliberate ambiguity. However, it has to be acknowledged that the most important roles are North Korea and the U.S., and it is obvious they have different plans in their minds. The main idea of this thesis is to study the U.S. Policy toward North Korea (2001-2011), and present unbiased points of view instead of only the U.S. aspect. This thesis uses the Strategy of Action of André Beaufre, a French Strategist, as the research method, to analyze data and studies to fairly find out the pros and cons of the U.S. Policy toward North Korea. This thesis shows that the George W. Bush administration and the Obama administration share the same goals but different strategies toward North Korea. The U.S. have difficulty in using military action since it tries to avoid North Korea taking nuclear retaliation, and the war in the middle east and the sinking economy also limit the ability of the U.S. government. This thesis analyzes the U.S. policy toward North Korea from the aspects of military power, politics, economy and diplomacy, and it uses political diagnosis and strategic diagnosis as the approaches to examine the action plans of both Bush and Obama administrations. The research shows that the actions plans match the point of view of André Beaufre strategically, but the flaws of the plan structure, the failure to have China take a stance against North Korea and the illogicalness of the government position finally led the U.S. policy toward North Korea to a frustrated end.

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本文主旨是要說明：就《道德形上學》的論述而言，康德在何種意義上能夠被視為一個契約論思想家。本文將從兩條線索出發來理解康德所提出的契約論，這兩條線索分別是：康德的財產權理論、以及契約論中處理政治權威正當性時所必須面對的統一性問題。 本文認為：康德所提出的作為理念的原初契約，是一種提供給已處身在政治社會之下的個人，去設想當下所面對的法律強制力之正當性的方式。藉由康德在《純粹理性批判》之中對於「理念」的界定，可以將賦予原初契約一個確實的契約作用：人民的同意。儘管是一個被想像的同意，但康德賦予它積極的意義即形塑公民為一個自主、自律的主體，因此，在這個面向上，本文認為康德提出了儘管與霍布斯、洛克、盧梭迥異但卻仍然極富意義的契約論。 / The purpose of this thesis is that Kant should be seen as a theorist of the social contract theory in the discourse of the Metaphysics of Morals. This thesis will perceive the social contract theory provided by Kant in accordance to two clues, including the theory of property and the problem of unity. The main point of the thesis is that the original social contract as an idea of reason is the method providing for the individual existing in the civil society of constructing the legitimacy of the political authority. By definition of “Idea” in Critique of Pure reason, Kant gives the original social contract a meaningful function: the consent of people. Though the consent is a concept imagined by the people, Kant gives it a positive meaning of forming the people to the independent subject in politics. In conclusion, this thesis claims that Kant provided a meaningful social contract theory different from other theorists in the social contract tradition, such as Hobbes, Locke and Rousseau.

本篇論文使用SWARCH模型探討布蘭特原油期貨市場的波動性。SWARCH模型將條件變異設定為可隨時間變動而改變，甚至移轉到不同的區間上。實證結果顯示SWARCH (3,3)模型具有最佳配適度與最準確的預測能力。樣本在不同區間下的平滑機率的估計值有助於補捉資料特性，而且當樣本落在高波動率區間上時會對應著重大事件的發生，如1990年波斯灣戰爭、1997年亞洲金融風暴與2001年的911恐怖攻擊。 / This paper investigates the volatility of the Brent crude oil futures markets using Markov-switching ARCH (SWARCH) model. The SWARCH model allows the conditional disturbances to change as time passes and even to switch in different regimes. The empirical evidence shows that the SWARCH (3,3) model performs the best goodness of fit and the best forecast performance between different fitting models. The estimation of smoothing probabilities of data under different regimes facilitates to capture the characteristics of data, and the high-volatility regime is associated with the extraordinary events, such as the 1990’s Persian Gulf War, the 1997’s Asia Financial Crisis, and the 2001’s 911 terrorist attack.

傳統效率市場假設股價的波動是隨機的，亦即股價是無法預測。 近來的文獻指出股價的波動是不完全是隨機的，且股價的波動具有緩長記憶(long memory)的特性。在本文中我們以R/S分析發現臺灣股市的Hurst指數為0.68，即具有趨勢持續性(trend persistent)之效果，根據此依特性，我們根據Necula(2002)的研究，來評價台股選擇權，發現此新評價模式產生之價格較接近市場價格。

拉丁裔的人口數量已於2002年凌駕非洲裔成為美國最大的少數族群，2004年杭廷頓（Samuel P. Huntington）在《我們是誰？對美國國家認同的挑戰》（Who Are We? The Challenges to America’s National Identity）ㄧ書中嚴厲譴責拉丁裔移民進入美國後，倡議兩種語言與兩種文化，此將危及美國國家「盎格魯－新教」（Anglo-Protestantism）文化，更將侵蝕美國的國家利益與威脅美國在國際社會的霸權地位。由於目前國內學界對拉丁裔研究多為單一族裔的研究，本文藉由比較性研究呈現古巴裔與墨西哥裔的不同發展歷程。研究內容涵蓋古巴裔與墨西哥裔對美國的影響，以及布希政府對不同族裔的移民政策研究。研究結果可發現古巴裔與墨西哥裔的影響能力與影響層面有所不同，而布希政府看待古巴裔與墨西哥裔的態度也有不同。 針對古巴裔與墨西哥裔影響的研究，超過六成的古巴裔集中在佛州，因此古巴裔在佛州的影響力明顯，而分佈廣闊的墨西哥裔卻能挾人數之眾影響全國性議題。此外，重視外交議題的古巴裔也與重視內政議題（教育為主）的墨西哥裔不同。另就古巴裔與墨西哥裔的身分、認同與母國關係也有不同的發展歷程，因而導引出布希政府不同的移民政策。古巴裔部分，因為古巴裔的公民身分與美古雙邊關係發展，使得古巴裔在移民過程中擁有較多的優惠；墨西哥裔部分，墨西哥裔美國人重視雙語教育政策，而墨西哥裔非法移民則期待移民大赦與臨時工計畫。然而，布希政府不僅反對雙語教育與全面的移民大赦，表態支持的臨時工計畫卻受到參眾兩院無法達成協議而停滯。 / The population of Latinos has exceeded African American and become the largest minority group in the U.S in 2002. In the book “Who Are We? The Challenges to America’s National Identity,” Samuel P. Huntington condemn Latinos as advocating double language and double culture, and this will ultimately endanger the Anglo-Protestantism culture of U.S. Moreover, the increasing entrance of Latinos into the U.S will erode America's national interest and influence America's hegemony in international society. Since domestic research has focused on studying single ethnic group-Latinos, this research tries to present the different developmental process of Cubans and Mexicans via comparative studies. This paper discusses Cubans and Mexicans' impact on America, and George W. Bush's immigration policy toward different ethnic groups. From my research result, I have found that Cubans and Mexicans’ influential power and level as being different, and President Bush’s policy toward Cubans and Mexicans is different as well. More than sixty percent Cubans lives in Florida, which implies that Cubans has strong impact on Florida. On the other side, the massive number of Mexicans can influence national policy with its national wide population distribution. In addition, Cubans is more concerned about foreign policy toward Castro regime, while Mexicans concerns more about internal issues, especially education. Cubans and Mexicans also have different development process regarding their status, identity, and relationship with home countries, thus leading Bush’s distinct policy toward this two groups. For the Cubans, because of citizenship rate and U.S.-Cuba relationship, Cubans has more privileges during immigration. To the Mexicans, Mexican American is concerned about bilingual education, and Mexican illegal labors have focus on amnesty temporary worker program. However, Bush administration not only opposes bilingual education and a comprehensive immigration amnesty, but the temporary worker program is also delayed by the Senate and the House of Representative.

由於商業、工業和民生各方面大量的用電需求，使得電費在某些季節會特別昂貴。又因為電力的生產和儲存都有限，故電力公司為了能更有效率的分配總電力，要求消費者事先訂定各自用戶的契約容量，做為每個月分配電力的最大標準。對於消費者而言，相較於較高的契約容量，選取較低的契約容量通常負擔的基本電費也較低，但是當用電量超過契約容量時則必須支付高額罰金。因此消費者為了盡可能使長期的用電消費降低，選擇一個合適且最佳的契約容量是很重要的課題。在本文中以隨機模型”具飄移項之布朗運動”作為分析用電量趨勢的模型，並介紹如何做模型的驗證以及參數的估計，接著建構出總電費的期望值估計式以尋找最佳的契約容量。最後，以政治大學的實際用電量資料作為本文的研究實例，並提出選擇契約容量之建議方針。

本研究旨在瞭解桃園縣國民中學校長分布式領導、教師心理賦權與教師學術樂觀之現況，並分析不同背景變項之教師在知覺校長分布式領導、教師心理賦權與教師學術樂觀之差異情形，且探討三者之間的關係，最後藉由校長分布式領導與教師心理賦權對教師學術樂觀進行預測。 本研究採調查研究法，共計抽樣30所學校，發出690份問卷，回收480份有效問卷，問卷有效率達69.97%。資料處理分別以描述性統計、獨立樣本t檢定、單因子變異數分析、皮爾遜積差相關及多元逐步迴歸分析等統計方式進行統計分析。 本研究獲致以下之結論： 一、 桃園縣國民中學教師知覺校長分布式領導為中高程度，以「校長的自信與謙遜」之知覺程度為最高，「營造信任的文化」之知覺程度最低。 二、 桃園縣國民中學教師有中高程度之教師心理賦權表現，以「影響力」的知覺為最高，「能力」之知覺為最低。 三、 桃園縣國民中學教師有中高程度之教師學術樂觀表現， 以「效能感」的知覺為最高，「學術強調」之知覺為最低。 四、 桃園縣國民中學教師，因其年齡、擔任職務、學校規模及學校歷史之不同，而有不同的校長分布式領導知覺感受，以51歲（含）以上之主任，並服務於學校規模12班（含）以下擁有21年（含以下）、41-60年、及61年（含以上）學校歷史之教師知覺程度較高。 五、 桃園縣國民中學教師，因其年齡、服務年資、學校規模及學校歷史之不同，而表現出不同程度的教師心理賦權，以年齡51歲（含）以上且年資超過21年，目前服務於學校規模13-48班擁有20年以下學校歷史之教師在知覺教師心理賦權程度較高。 六、 桃園縣國民中學教師，因其年齡及服務年資之不同，而有不同的教師學術樂觀知覺感受，以年齡51歲（含）以上並服務超過21年之學校教師在知覺教師學術樂觀程度較高。 七、 桃園縣國民中學校長分布式領導、教師心理賦權與教師學術樂觀的知覺及各分層面，彼此之間具有正相關的關係。 八、 桃園縣國民中學校長分布式領導、教師心理賦權對教師學術樂觀具有預測作用，以「校長分布式領導」的預測力最佳。 最後依據研究結果與結論，提出具體建議，以供教育行政機關、學校校長與教師以及未來研究的參考。 / The purpose of this study was to investigate the current development of principal’s distributed leadership, teachers’ psychological empowerment, and teachers’ academic emphasis in secondary schools of Taoyuan County, and to analyze the difference between teachers of different background variables, and to explore the relationship among the three variables. This study has aimed to predict teachers’ academic emphasis through principal’s distributed leadership and teachers’ psychological empowerment. Through the use of questionnaire survey method, data were collected from 30 secondary schools, distributing 690 questionnaires in total. Valid questionnaires of 480 were collected, with a usable rate of 69.97%. All data were analyzed by the methods of descriptive statistics, independent t-test, one-way ANOVA, Pearson correlation, and multiple regression. The conclusions of this study are as follows: 1. Secondary school teachers’ perception of principal’s distributed leadership is above average, in which the item “principals’ self-confidence” and “humility”was the highest, and “creating a culture of trust” was the lowest. 2. Secondary school teachers’ perception of teachers’ psychological empowerment is above average, in which the item “impact” was the highest, and “competence” was the lowest. 3. Secondary school teachers’ perception of teachers’ academic optimism is above average, in which the item “self-efficacy” was the highest, and “academic emphasis” was the lowest. 4. There are significant differences in the secondary school teachers’ perception of principals’ distributed leadership in terms of age, position, scale of school, and age of school. 5. There are significant differences in the secondary school teachers’ perception of teachers’ psychological empowerment in terms of age, years of service, scale of school, and age of school. 6. There are significant differences in the secondary school teachers’ perception of academic emphasis in terms of age and years of service. 7. There is a positive correlation among the principals’ distributed leadership, teachers’ psychological empowerment, and teachers’ academic optimism. 8. Principal’s distributed leadership and teachers’ psychological empowerment have a predictive effect on teachers’ academic optimism.

本研究旨在探討國民小學校長分布式領導、學校組織公平與教師組織公民行為之關係，並依據研究結果提出建議。首先，進行文獻探討，建立研究架構與工具。 其次，以北北基三市公立國民小學教師為研究對象，透過取樣進行問卷調查，總計有效樣本為802份，分別以描述統計、t考驗、變異數分析、相關分析、多元逐步迴歸分析以及結構方程模式等統計方法加以分析。依據研究結果之分析，本研究主要研究發現如下： （一）目前國民小學教師知覺校長分布式領導、學校組織公平與教師組織公民行為的程度良好。 （二）教師知覺校長分布式領導與學校組織公平的程度，在性別、年齡、服務年資等背景變項，具有顯著差異。 （三）教師知覺教師組織公民行為的程度，在服務年資、學校所在地、學校規模、校長性別以及校長服務年資等背景變項，具有顯著差異。 （四）校長分布式領導、學校組織公平與教師組織公民行為三者之間，具有正向的關聯。 （五）學校組織公平對教師組織公民行為的預測力，高於校長分布式領導對教師組織公民行為的預測力。 （六）校長分布式領導透過學校組織公平的中介效果，正向影響教師組織公民行為。 最後，根據研究結果提出相關建議，提供實務應用與未來研究之參考。 / The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship among the principals’ distributed leadership, school organizational justice and teachers’ organizational citizenship behavior in the elementary school. The research methods included literature review and questionnaire survey. The data was collected from 802 teachers of elementary schools in Taipei City, New Taipei City, and Keelung City. The data was analyzed with descriptive statistics, t-test, one-way ANOVA, correlation, multiple regressions and structural equation modeling. The conclusions are as follows: 1. The elementary school teachers’ perception of the principals’ distributed leadership, school organizational justice and teachers’ organizational citizenship behavior is positive. 2. The elementary school teachers of different gender, age, in-service years, current position, school size and the different principal’s gender show significant differences on teachers’ perception of principals’ distributed leadership and school organizational justice. 3. The elementary school teachers of different in-service years, school districts, school size, the different school principal’s gender and principal’s in-service years show significant differences on teachers’ organizational citizenship behavior. 4. There are positive correlations among principals’ distributed leadership, school organizational justice and teachers’ organizational citizenship behavior. 5. Compared with principals’ distributed leadership, school organizational justice is the stronger indicator for teachers’ organizational citizenship behavior. 6. The principals’ distributed leadership has positive effect on teachers’ organizational citizenship behavior through the mediation effect of school organizational justice According to the findings and conclusions given above, some suggestions are provided for practical applications and future research.