近年來，俄羅斯、中國、印度三國經濟發展迅速，國力蒸蒸日上。俄中印三國因地緣因素，自冷戰時期彼此之對外戰略便相互影響。到了後冷戰時期，國際體系轉變成由美國所引領之「一超多強」體系，三國更找到共同合作的利基，促成三國之間的合作。在冷戰與後冷戰兩段時期，三國關係的發展，呈現不同的風貌。 從國際關係現實主義來看，國家作為理性的行為者，追求國家相對利益為決定國家行為的基本因素，而此行為為一場零和賽局。以此為脈絡，美國學者羅德明在冷戰時期發展成的戰略三角理論，成為探討三國關係之經典。台灣學者包宗和更觀察到，後冷戰時期的國家，因國際體系的改變，戰略三角理論由傳統的「個體論」走向「總體論」的取向。本文試圖以戰略三角理論為途徑，探討冷戰與後冷戰兩段時期，俄中印三國關係之演變。 首先，本文探討從二戰結束、冷戰開始以來，俄中印三國在兩極體系下的互動模式；其次探討後冷戰時期的關係演變。再整理出後冷戰三國關係的發展，對國際情勢、美國對外戰略的影響。最後由三國之間互動的實例，對戰略三角理論作出反饋。 / In recent years, the economic growth in Russia, China and India soars rapidly and their national strength does, too. Due to the geopolitical factors, these three nations affected each other in strategies during the cold war. After the cold war, the international system changed into a US-lead “uni-multi-polar system.” Russia, China and India found the common niche which promoted their cooperation. In the two periods of cold war and post-cold war, the relationship among these three countries displayed great differences. From the point of view in realism, the nations as rational actors pursue relative national interests as their goals which turn into a zero-sum game. Lowell Dittmer developed this idea into the “Strategic Triangle Theory” to discuss trilateral relationship among nations in cold war. Tzong-Ho Bau argued that the nations in post-cold war pursue common national interests as a methodological holism which is different from the methodological individualism in the cold war. Through strategic triangle approach, this thesis tries to explore the relationship among Russia, China and India. First, the thesis discusses the relationship among Russia, China and India during the cold war and then the period after the cold war. Second, the thesis discusses the influence which Russia, China and India make on international circumstances and US strategies. Finally, by a review from Russia-China-India trilateral relationship, the thesis gives a feedback to the strategic triangle theory.

本文主要的研究目的是分析俄羅斯在冷戰結束之後，俄羅斯對於亞太地區軍售的政策及其制定過程，並探討軍售對於亞太地區的影響。並分析俄羅斯自冷戰結束之後，如何藉由軍售議題取得在亞太區域影響力的槓桿。 本文以層次理論作為分析基礎，將俄羅斯軍售政策的形成分成三個層次來探討，這三個層次依次為國際環境因素、區域因素以及國內因素。並且在三個層次中同時以經濟與政治因素去分析軍售政策在分析層次中所受到的影響有哪些。

本論文試圖透過戰略三角政治研究途徑和克里姆林宮政治研究途徑，探討普欽時期的俄羅斯對美國政策。 蘇聯解體後，俄羅斯對外政策路線的走向，由葉里欽執政初期的一面倒向以美國為首的親西方之大西洋主義政策路線，轉向為葉里欽執政後期的拉攏中國抗衡美國的東西平衡對外政策路線；到了普欽執政時期，又重新定位為與美國進行戰略和解，進而進行戰略合作的全方位對外政策路線, 以擺脫俄中戰略協作夥伴關係所導致的戰略羈絆之制約。本文試圖探討，驅動普欽時期此一俄羅斯對美國政策路線轉變的內外在因素。 本論文認為，普欽執政期間，俄羅斯對美政策之形成，乃是在承襲葉里欽對外政策的遺緒，在普欽的強勢領導之下，俄羅斯之決策菁英，以俄羅斯的國家安全及國家利益為訴求，援引包括戰略三角互動、美國的政策與做為、俄羅斯經濟發展與政治生態互動等俄羅斯內外在環境因素，作為其政策辯論的依據，透過克里姆林宮政治的互動形塑而成。 上述假設命題可以引申出下列邏輯相關的子命題： 一•普欽的對美政策，受到包括戰略三角互動與美國的政策與做為等俄羅斯外在環境因素之影響形塑而成。 1999年普欽上台前夕，科索佛戰爭及北約戰略新概念的提出，加深了俄羅斯的安全疑慮；而2001年4月，美中軍機擦撞事件，則加深了中美關係的裂痕；此一發展促使俄中戰略夥伴關係趨於密切。2001年6月中國主導「上海合作組織」的成立，以及7月俄中睦鄰友好合作條約的簽訂，就是此一發展邏輯的結果。然而，隨著中國在□海地區爭霸戰中影響力的增長，有關中國威脅論的聲音，也在俄羅斯安全決策階層引起越來越多的迴響。而此一發展，則促使俄羅斯尋求與美國進行戰略和解，以防範中國之威脅。另一方面，蘇聯解體後，中國勢力快速崛起，美國不再視俄羅斯為其戰略對手，轉而防範中國之威脅。911事件之後，美國面臨反恐之戰以及分散油源之需求，小布希總統調整了對俄政策，讓普欽得以順利與美國進行戰略和解；從而，普欽得以擺脫俄中戰略協作夥伴關係所導致之戰略羈絆的制約。 二•普欽的對美政策，受到包括經濟發展考量與政治生態互動等俄羅斯內在環境因素之影響形塑而成。 面對俄羅斯國內的經濟窘境，普欽認為，唯有與美國進行戰略和解，才能儘快加入世界貿易組織、增加歐美的投資和援助、減輕外債負擔、從而促進經濟發展。另一方面，普欽的強勢領導地位以及務實的政治手腕，使得普欽得以操控國內政治生態的互動，主導俄羅斯國家安全概念的重新定位；從而，得以順利推動全方位對外政策路線，與美國進行戰略和解，藉以擺脫葉里欽後期所建立的俄中戰略協作夥伴關係所導致之戰略羈絆的制約。 / The purpose of this study is aimed at exploring Russia’s policy toward the United States under Bladimir Putin, 2000-2003. The strategic triangle politics approach and the Kremlin politics approach are applied in this study. After the Soviet Union’s collapse, Russia’s line of foreign policy had been shifted from the one-sided pro-Western Atlanticism in the early stage of Boris Yel’tsin’s administration toward the East-West balanced strategy, attempting to draw China on the same front against the United States, in the latter stage of Yel’tsin’s regime. After Putin had come to power, Russia’s line of foreign policy was reoriented as a comprehensive one, engaging in strategic reconciliation and strategic cooperation with the U.S. and, consequently, getting rid of the strategic entanglement resulted from the establishment of the partnership of strategic coordination between China and Russia. Against this background, this study attempts to investigate the internal and external factors that drive this shift in Russia’s line of foreign policy under Putin. The hypothesis of this study is as follows: Shadowed by Yel’tsin’s legacy of foreign policy and forged under Putin’s strong leadership, Russia’s policy toward the United States under Putin has been shaped by the interaction of Kremlin politics, engaged by Russian decision-making elites, who appeal to Russia’s national security and national interests in their policy debates, referring to Russia’s external and internal factors, such as the interaction of strategic triangle politics, the US policies and conduct, Russia’s economic developments, and domestic political ecological changes in Russia. This hypothesis can be further developed into the following logically consequential sub-propositions: 1•The formulation of Russia’s policy toward the United States under Putin has been driven by Russia’s external factors, such as the interaction of strategic triangle politics and the US policies and conduct. In the spring of 1999, on the eve of Putin’s coming to power, the breakout of War in Kosovo and the pronunciation of NATO’s new Strategic Concept had created serious concerns for Russians about their national security. And in April 2001, the collision of US-Chinese military aircrafts above the South China Sea had deepen the Sino-US fissures. Consequently, the development of these events had pushed closer the Partnership of Russo-Chinese Strategic Coordination. As a result, the creation of Chinese-initiated Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in June 2001 and the conclusion of the Treaty of Good-Neighborhood, Friendship and Cooperation between China and Russia in the following month were only a logical outcome. However, accompanying the growth of China’s influence in the area of Caspian Sea, the voice of “China threat” has received more and more attention in the circle of Russia’s national security decision-makers. These developments, in turn, had forced Russia to search for strategic reconciliation with the United States in order to prevent China from becoming a threat. On the other hand, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rapid rise of China’s influence, the United States no longer treat Russia as a strategic rival; instead, they shift their efforts to prevent China from becoming a threat. In the wake of the terrorist attack on 11 September 2001, in order to meet the needs for engaging campaigns against terrorism and for deconcentrating the sources of petroleum, President Bush has readjusted US policy toward Russian. As a consequence, these shifts in US policy provide Putin with a golden opportunity to engage in strategic reconciliation with the United States and thus get rid of strategic entanglements derived from the establishment of partnership of strategic coordination with China. 2•The formulation of Russia’s policy toward the United States under Putin has been driven by Russia’s internal factors, such as the economic development and the political ecological changes in Russia. In the face of Russia’s economic predicament, in Putin’s opinion, the only way to promote economic development is the strategic reconciliation with the United States, which will accelerate the process for Russia to obtain the access to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and in turn to gain the access to investments and financial assistance from the West and to lessen the burden of foreign loans. In addition, with his strong leadership and his pragmatic political skills, Putin has been able to maneuver the interaction of domestic political econlogies in favor of the reorientation of Russia’s concept of national security. As a result, Putin has been able to forge a comprehensive line of foreign policy and, accordingly, to conduct strategic reconciliation with the United States. Consequently, he has been able to get rid of the strategic entanglements derived from the establishment of partnership of strategic Coordination with China in the latter stage of Yel’tsin’s regime.

無 / This thesis highlights the strategic triangle of oil relations between China, the US and Venezuela by analyzing their petro-diplomacy campaigns and domestic oil strategies. Research which has empirically documented the oil conditions of China, Venezuela, and the United States and their use of strategies is scant. Therefore, the aim of this thesis attempts to explore how their oil relations and national oil strategies are related, as these three countries all need to strengthen their national energy strategies and focus attention on energy security. This thesis will also look at the sensitivity and vulnerability of these triangular oil relations by analyzing each bilateral conflicts and cooperation, and at the concerns arising from this in a Strategic Triangle Theory framework. The main goal is to understand the trilateral oil interactions between China, Venezuela, and the United States and better minimize the conflicts and tensions between them.

本文之目的在於探討冷戰後時期「中俄戰略協作夥伴關係」（Sino-Russian Partnership of Strategic Coordination）對戰略三角政治互動的意涵及其對台海安全的可能影響與衝擊。本文將以「系統理論研究途徑」（System Theory Approach）作為中心分析概念架構（central organizing concept）進行研究分析。 冷戰結束後，隨著蘇聯解體，冷戰時期的兩極格局已不復存在，大國之間的關係實行了相對的調整。在新的國際格局中，中國與俄羅斯兩國基於遏制「北約東擴」和防止「美日安保」條約的圍堵（Containment），雙方除了極力倡導多極化國際體系外，並進一步建立「戰略協作夥伴關係」，冀由強化雙邊的多層面關係，來共同對抗「美國霸權」局面。 中俄戰略協作夥伴關係之建立為新世紀中、俄兩國關係的發展奠定了良好基礎。10年來，中俄關係發展相當順利。1992年-2001年，中俄關係的發展，連續上了四個台階，這就是:（一）92年「互視為友好國家關係」;（二）94年「建設性夥伴關係」;（三）96年「戰略協作夥伴關係」。在此以後，中俄戰略協作夥伴關係在實踐中不斷得到充實和發展。（四）2001年7月中俄雙方簽署了一份歷史性文件「中俄睦鄰友好合作條約」（China-Russia Good-neighborhood, Friendship and Cooperation Treaty），標誌雙方關係又進入一個新的發展階段。 在冷戰時期，中國、蘇聯與美國的戰略三角關係是影響國際政治變動的主要因素。蘇聯解體後，中俄關係發生重大變化，兩國已建立一個面向二十一世紀的戰略協作夥伴關係。作為冷戰後時期的世上唯一超強，美國非常關注中俄軍事合作面向之擴大。對美國而言，中國與俄羅斯為其全球戰略部署兩個最重要的國家，它們的重要性是因為它們的幅員、經濟潛力和軍事力量。其中最值得注意的是，中俄雙方在軍事和技術層面的合作，包括俄羅斯對中國的軍售。美國擔心中俄發展戰略協作夥伴關係，會導致中國軍力的增強，以及亞太區域「權力平衡」（Balance of Power）之改變。 本文認為，中俄戰略協作夥伴關係，就短程而言: 中俄「戰略匯合」（the Strategic Convergence between China and Russia）將使中俄在「政治」、「經濟」、「軍事」、「外交戰略」等合作面向獲得若干程度的「實質利益」（substantial interests）。同時中俄戰略協作夥伴關係之條約化將對美國在亞太區域戰略地位造成影響，從而衝擊到台海均勢與安全。然而，就長程而言: 未來中俄戰略協作夥伴關係發展，顯然仍有其「地緣政治」、「歷史上陰影」因素之侷限。 關鍵字: 中國、俄羅斯、系統理論分析途徑、現實主義、 國家利益、戰略三角互動、中俄戰略協作夥伴關係 / The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of the“Sino-Russian Partnership of Strategic Coordination” in the Post Cold War Era, on the strategic triangle politics and its implication for the security and balance of power across the Taiwan Straits. In this thesis, the “System Theory Approach” will be the central organizing concept, applied to the analysis. After the Cold War, the bi-polar system has been broken since the collapse of the USSR. Relations among great powers were adjusted accordingly. PRC and Russia initiated multi-polar system and become“Partnership of Strategic Coordination ” to resist the “American hegemony” It has laid a solid foundation for the development of Sino-Russian relations in the new century. In the past ten years, Sino-Russian relations witnessed a smooth progress. From 1992-2001, the relations progressed from“Friendly neighbors” to “Constructive partnership” to“Partnership of strategic coordination”. Since then,“China-Russia Good-neighborhood, Friendship and Cooperation Treaty”signed by the PRC and the Russia Federation in July 2001, marked a new era in the development of bilateral relations. The Sino-Soviet-US triangular relations were the most dominant factor which affected the change of international politics in the Cold War period. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Sino-Russian relations have developed to a certain degree that the two countries have established a strategic partnership aimed at the 21st century. As the sole world super power, the United States is wary of Expanded Sino-Russian military cooperation. For the US, China and Russia are the two most important countries in the world. Their importance is derived from their size, their economic potential, and their military power. The US is much concerned about the development of Sino-Russian Strategic relations which may lead to a buildup of China’s military power and a change of Asia-pacific “Balance of Power”. It is believed in this study that,“Sino-Russian Partnership of Strategic Coordination,” in the short term: “The Strategic Convergence between China and Russia,” China and Russia will gain to some degree the substantial interests from the bilateral cooperation, such as “Political” ,“Economic ”,“Military”,“Foreign Policy Strategy.”At the same time, the stipulation of the mechanism of Chinese-Russo partnership in the treaty will create impact on the US strategic position in the Taiwan Straits and security of Taiwan. Nevertheless, in the long term: In the future, the development of” Chinese-Russo strategic partnership” still has its limits in the terms of “Geopolitical” and “ Historical Shadow” conditions. Key word: China, Russia, System Theory Approach, Realism, National Interest, Strategic Triangle Interaction, Sino-Russian Partnership of Strategic Coordination

1970年代蘇聯的戰略核武數目與美國並駕齊驅後，蘇聯即採用「不率先使用核子武器」的政策。蘇聯解體後，其繼承國俄羅斯在1993年公佈的「軍事準則基本章程」當中，放棄了「不率先使用核子武器」的政策，甚至在2000年最新版的「軍事準則」當中，進一步宣稱保留核子武器的優先攻擊權。因此令人不解的是：為何在與美國……等西方國家之間的冷戰結束後，俄羅斯的核子戰略政策反而由冷戰時代的消極防禦性逐漸轉變為具有侵略性？更令人不解的是，為何俄羅斯在宣佈保留核武的優先攻擊權，強調戰略核武的重要性後，卻反而裁併掉其第一大軍種且掌管大多數核武的戰略火箭軍？ 本論文在地緣政治研究途徑這條「線」外，另外加以戰略三角研究途徑以及克里姆林宮政治研究途徑這兩條「線」，三條研究途徑交織形成一個三度空間，將所有俄羅斯核子戰略政策轉變的因素納入其中，並分割成外部、內部兩個「面向」去研究探討，以求完整且系統化地解釋俄羅斯核子戰略政策之轉變。 冷戰結束後，戰略三角之一的美國在歐亞大陸的西邊主導北約東擴，逼近到歐亞大國俄羅斯西面的家門口；在歐亞大陸的東邊美國又與日本透過新的「美日防衛合作方針」跟「周邊事態法」，擴大了兩國軍事同盟的範圍，試圖對俄羅斯構成東西鉗制效應。美國一方面試圖對俄羅斯構成東西包圍態勢，另一方面也試圖建立起「全國飛彈防禦系統」，削弱俄羅斯的核武嚇阻能力，以達成美國「新世紀國家安全戰略」領導世界的目標。另外，戰略三角之一的中國在冷戰結束後崛起，長遠來說不僅地緣政治上對俄羅斯構成威脅，其核武戰略在受到美國「全國飛彈防禦系統」的刺激後，也對俄羅斯的核武戰略造成影響。上述這些情況威脅到俄羅斯的國家安全，導致俄羅斯改變其核武戰略政策。 俄羅斯在傳統勢力範圍逐漸被西方國家入侵的情況下，使得俄羅斯內部保守勢力抬頭，這展現在1993年、1995年跟1999年的三次國會選舉上。這種政治生態反映在俄羅斯政府的對外政策上，便由原本親西方的大西洋主義路線轉變為東西平衡的大國獨立對外政策路線，影響到俄羅斯的核武戰略。另外，民族分裂主義、宗教極端主義和國際恐怖主義這三股勢力在高加索、中亞地區的活動，以及美國覬覦中亞能源欲將其勢力深入該區，這些情況都對俄羅斯的國家安全構成了威脅，也導致俄羅斯改變其核武戰略政策。況且俄羅斯正在進行經濟改革，而經濟改革能否成功又牽涉到是否裁併戰略火箭軍的軍事改革路線之爭，但是為減少軍費支出集中資源發展經濟，所以在裁併戰略火箭軍之前，更須加強核子嚇阻的可信度來保障國家安全。

俄羅斯獨立之初，其對外政策路線為「向西方一面倒」，亞太政策並未能與其對西方政策相提並論。但在短短數年間，俄羅斯與亞太區域大國—中共的關係急遽加溫，雙方建立了戰略夥伴關係。這足以說明俄羅斯的亞太政策在其對外政策中的比重已然提升。俄羅斯現行的對外政策走的是「東西平衡」路線；從而，俄羅斯的亞太政策也有重大的調整。本論文將探討1992至1998年間，俄羅斯的亞太政策如何形成。 本論文認為：1992年俄羅斯獨立之後，俄羅斯的亞太政策乃是在國內經濟發展的需求以及戰略三角的互動等環節關聯上，受到克里姆林宮政治生態互動而形成。此一命題可再引申為下列邏輯相關的子命題：（一）由於美國主導北約的東進使俄羅斯感受威脅，加上中共與美國的戰略衝突，引起美俄中戰略三角的互動，促使俄羅斯意圖聯合中共以制衡美國，因而造成俄羅斯亞太政策的重大調整。（二）在俄羅斯國內經濟凋敝的情況下，俄屬遠東的開發為其自力救濟的唯一途徑。為加速俄屬遠東的開發，俄羅斯勢必要開創有利的國際環境，從而必須調整其亞太政策。（三）俄羅斯亞太政策的形成與其國內政治生態的互動有密切的關聯：克里姆林宮政治生態互動，造成俄羅斯的對外政策路線從原來的「向西方一面倒」徹底轉為東西平衡的「雙頭鷹」，而亞太政策就是其重要環節之一。 上述的三個成因，構成本論文的核心論點；而對應於此三個論點，本論文將分六章探討。第一章為緒論，說明研究動機與範圍、文獻述評與研究途徑。第二章：俄羅斯的亞太政策。本章將略述俄羅斯獨立後，其亞太政策的實際運作。當中以俄羅斯對中共、日本與南北韓的政策，做為重點加以描述，其次再論及俄羅斯對東南亞地區國家的政策。第三章：戰略三角互動對俄羅斯亞太政策的影響。本章將闡述戰略三角互動對俄羅斯亞太政策形成的影響。第四章：俄羅斯遠東經濟開發對其亞太政策的影響。本章將檢視俄屬遠東經濟開發對俄羅斯亞太政策的影響。第五章：俄羅斯政治生態互動對其亞太政策的影響。本章將探討克里姆林宮政治生態互動對俄羅斯亞太政策的影響。第六章：結論。 目錄-----------------------------------------------------------I 圖表目錄------------------------------------------------------VI 縮寫表------------------------------------------------------VIII 第一章 緒論---------------------------------------------------1 第一節 研究動機與目的-----------------------------------------1 第二節 研究範圍-----------------------------------------------4 第三節 文獻述評-----------------------------------------------6 第四節 研究途徑與架構----------------------------------------13 第二章 俄羅斯的亞太政策--------------------------------------24 第一節 俄羅斯對東亞政策--------------------------------------26 一、俄羅斯對中共政策------------------------------------------26 （一）俄中夥伴關係層次的提升—由「睦鄰友好」到「戰略夥伴」----26 （二）俄中夥伴關係的具體表現----------------------------------30 二、俄羅斯對台灣政策------------------------------------------36 （一）俄台關係—中斷四十年後的交流----------------------------36 （二）俄台經貿往來成果----------------------------------------37 第二節 俄羅斯對東北亞政策------------------------------------39 一、俄羅斯對日政策--------------------------------------------40 （一）俄日零和關係的轉變—「東京宣言」------------------------40 （二）俄羅斯對日政策推行的障礙—北方四島問題------------------41 二、俄羅斯對朝鮮半島政策--------------------------------------44 （一）俄羅斯對南韓政策—漸行漸遠的雙邊關係--------------------45 （二）俄羅斯對北韓政策—由疏而近的調整------------------------47 第三節 俄羅斯對東南亞政策------------------------------------49 （一）俄羅斯與東協「對話夥伴關係」的建立----------------------49 （二）俄羅斯東南亞政策的具體成就------------------------------52 第三章 戰略三角互動對俄羅斯亞太政策的影響--------------------54 第一節 俄美的戰略衝突----------------------------------------56 （一）俄美「成熟戰略夥伴關係」的建立--------------------------56 （二）俄美之間日漸浮現的衝突----------------------------------58 （三）俄美衝突的激化—美國主導北約東擴------------------------66 第二節 美中的戰略衝突----------------------------------------77 （一）「圍堵」與「反圍堵」------------------------------------77 （二）美國干涉1996年台海飛彈危機------------------------------84 （三）貌合神離的美中「建設性夥伴關係」------------------------87 第三節 俄中的戰略匯合----------------------------------------91 （一）俄羅斯對中共的軍售與技術轉移----------------------------91 （二）俄中邊界裁軍與互信措施的建立----------------------------97 （三）俄中對外戰略的互補--------------------------------------99 第四節 戰略三角互動對俄羅斯亞太政策的影響-------------------110 第四章 俄屬遠東開發對俄羅斯亞太政策的影響-------------------112 第一節 俄屬遠東的開發現況與困境-----------------------------113 （一）俄屬遠東開發的歷史回顧---------------------------------114 （二）俄屬遠東的開發現況-------------------------------------119 （三）俄屬遠東開發所面臨的困境-------------------------------123 第二節 東北亞區域經濟合作對俄屬遠東開發的必要性-------------130 （一）東北亞區域經濟合作的源起—圖們江開發計劃---------------130 （二）東北亞區域經濟合作—圖們江開發計劃的推行現況-----------133 （三）東北亞區域經濟合作對俄屬遠東開發的必要性---------------137 第三節 俄羅斯國內對俄屬遠東開發的歧見-----------------------140 （一）俄羅斯的遠東開發政策-----------------------------------140 （二）遠東地區對開發當地的看法-------------------------------146 第四節 俄羅斯為其遠東開發所做的政策調整---------------------150 （一）裡應外合的前置調整-------------------------------------150 （二）俄屬遠東開發與俄羅斯亞太政策之間的聯繫-----------------152 （三）俄羅斯亞太政策因應俄屬遠東開發的調整-------------------153 第五節 俄屬遠東開發對俄羅斯亞太政策的影響-------------------164 第五章 俄羅斯政治生態互動對其亞太政策的影響-----------------166 第一節 俄羅斯亞太政策的決策機制-----------------------------168 （一）總統府-------------------------------------------------168 （二）外交部-------------------------------------------------176 （三）國會---------------------------------------------------178 第二節 對外政策路線論爭的影響-------------------------------180 （一）俄羅斯對外政策路線的轉折-------------------------------180 （二）大西洋學派、歐亞大陸學派與大俄羅斯帝國學派-------------183 （三）對外政策路線的論戰-------------------------------------186 （四）「俄羅斯對外政策概念」與「俄羅斯的戰略」之比較---------191 第三節 府會之間對立的影響-----------------------------------197 （一）府會政爭的前夕-----------------------------------------197 （二）府會衝突的激化-----------------------------------------200 （三）府會之間對立對俄羅斯外交路線的影響---------------------209 第四節 國會政治生態的影響-----------------------------------211 （一）93國會大選後的政治生態---------------------------------212 （二）95國會改選的衝擊---------------------------------------217 （三）國會政治生態對俄羅斯外交路線的影響---------------------224 第五節 總統大選的衝擊---------------------------------------226 （一）96外長易人後國內的政治生態-----------------------------226 （二）車臣戰事的糾葛-----------------------------------------231 （三）總統大選對俄羅斯外交路線的影響-------------------------238 第六節 俄羅斯政治生態互動對其亞太政策的影響-----------------240 第六章 結論-------------------------------------------------242 參考書目-----------------------------------------------------245 / In the initial stage immediately after its dependence, Russia’s foreign policy was following the line of “inclining to the West” therefore, the gravity of Russia’s Asia-Pacific Policy was disproportional comparing with that of its Policy toward the West. Nevertheless, during recent years, the Russo-Chinese relation has developed rapidly, and both sides have established the “strategic partnership”. This means that Russia’s Asia-Pacific Policy has become more and more significant since Russia is seeking an equilibrium between the East and the West in its current foreign policy. Against this background, this thesis will survey the factors that exert impact on the formation of Russia’s Asia-Pacific Policy during the period from 1992 to 1998. This thesis is taking the position that Russia’s Asia-Pacific policy has been shaped by the Kremlin politics within the context of its domestic imperative of economic development and the interaction of “Strategic Triangle” politics since the collapse of the former Soviet Union. This hypothesis can be further developed into the following three logically intertwined propositions: (1) Due to the US led NATO expansion eastward, which has created threats Russia’s security and the strategic conflict between the U.S.A. and the PRC. Russia intends to search the support from the PRC in order to check the US hegemonism. Under this consideration, Russia adjusts its Asia-Pacific Policy. (2) With the difficulties in its domestic economic development, the development of Russia’s Far East is the only way to release Russia from such a predicament. In order to accelerate the development of Russia’s Far East, Russia, it is necessary to search for a stable international condition. This consideration also demands that Russia adjust its Asia-Pacific Policy. (3) The formulation of Russia’s Asia-Pacific Policy is driven by its domestic political struggle: Kremlin politics makes the thoroughgoing change of Russia’s foreign policy line. Now Russia is seeking an equilibrium between the East and the West, which demands an adjustment in its Asia-Pacific policy in turn. These three factors above constitute the core points of this thesis. In accordance with these points, this thesis will be discussed in six chapters. Chapter one is introduction, it will explain the purpose, scope and approaches of this study. Chapter two will survey the development of Russia’s Asia-Pacific Policy during the period defined. This chapter will sketch the implementation of Russia’s Asia-Pacific Policy, with emphasis on Russia’s policies toward the PRC, Japan and the Korean Peninsula, and the Southeast Asia. Chapter three will explore the influence of the Strategic Triangle politics. Chapter four will examine the influence of the development of Russia’s Far East on Russia’s Asia-Pacific Policy. Chapter five will discuss how the Kremlin politics influences Russia’s Asia-Pacific Policy. Chapter six is conclusion.

2007年6月，與我建交長達60年以上之中美洲國家哥斯大黎加（Costa Rica）驟然宣佈與中國大陸建交，當時各界開始擔憂，台灣過去在中美洲頗為自豪之完整外交版圖在缺少了一角後，是否將發生骨牌效應？雖然事後證明此種疑慮並未成真，但已引起各界對我國維繫邦交成效之討論，也成為筆者之研究動機。 本文研究方法係針對傳統戰略三角分析途徑之侷限，提出改良式三邊關係分析模型，用以研究2000年至2008年期間台灣、中國大陸及中美洲友邦三邊關係。本研究目的有三，第一、界定台灣在此時期三邊關係中之地位優劣及導因，分析台灣在維繫邦交之優勢、劣勢、機會與挑戰。第二、藉由分析我國在三邊關係中之優勢及劣勢，進而提出提升地位及鞏固邦交之策略建議。第三、在研究方法層次，嘗試建構一套合理之三角關係分析途徑，設計出更合理且適用性更高之研究途徑。