根據主計處2010年度家庭收支調查報告顯示，隨著國人平均壽命延長，衛生保健觀念增強，醫療保健支出比重增至14.4％。傳統的實證研究上，在研究兩變數乃至多變數之間的關係時，習慣以解釋變數來分析被解釋變數的行為，並且能進一步了解其間的因果關係。而本文以分量迴歸方法（Quantile regression）深入探討，試以解釋OLS迴歸方式所無法解釋的範圍。本研究資料來源為行政院主計處「家庭收支調查報告」1996、2001及2006年的資料，以家庭為基本單位，實證結果發現分量迴歸在某些場合中的確比OLS模型的解釋能力來得廣。而無論是OLS或是各分量在這三年間家庭可支配所得與醫療支出皆呈正顯著效果，1996年「人身意外災害醫療保險支出」在極端低分量支出呈負顯著效果，在研究醫療支出高的族群中，我們發現除了家庭可支配所得外，在觀察研究醫療支出高的族群時，家庭總人口數、6歲以下幼兒人口比例、65歲以上老年人口比例及都市化程度也是要考慮瞭解的部分，因此，影響醫療支出的決定因素除了經濟因素外，非經濟因數中家庭特質的表現影響亦深遠，本文以迴歸模型及分量迴歸模型分別求出其醫療所得彈性，不論在OLS模型下估計，還是分量迴歸模型，皆表示醫療用具設備及器材支出、住院診療及非受雇醫院醫護服務支出、醫療用品支出及健保就診消費支出為正常財，且為必需品。

中國大陸於財政分權框架下，間接以收入分權影響支出分權，並以轉移支付調整兩者之消長。我們可得知無論採取哪種轉移支付都會帶來相應的疑義，在這裡歸納此現象為「政治與經濟集權下的轉移支付弔詭」：也就是如過於依賴一般性轉移支付，雖助於抑制地方預算軟約束，但卻導致地方增加行政經費支出；而如過多依賴專項轉移支付，雖助於推動地方基本公共建設，卻易造成腐敗。因此，我們可依中國大陸歷年改革歷程及相關的國際經驗推論，中國大陸轉移支付制度未來的改革方向會往稅收返還、專項轉移支付及稅種三領域進行改革。

內生經濟成長認為政府支出結構與收入結構均會影響恆定狀態成長率之觀點和事實是否一致呢？許多先前相關之研究需被修正，因為這些研究在政府預算限制式的設定並不完全，導致實證之結果產生偏誤。本文除了將討論忽略這些偏誤所會導致之影響外，進一步將以One-Way與TwO-Way的固定效果與隨機效果模型來進行估計，並修正先前研究所發生之問題，然後找出強力的證據來支持Barro模型（1990）所做的預測。本文的樣本資料取自東亞經濟前瞻與亞洲開發銀行，以亞洲新、舊四小龍，加上申國，共九個國家的17年時間序列資料所形成的揉合資料（pooling data）為實證對象。分析結果發現在考慮異質性與同期相關性下，若採用似無相關迴歸技巧來對One-Way固定效果模型進行估計，則：（1）不論政府是以租稅收入或是非租稅收入作為融通財源，資本性支出的增加均會提高經濟成長率，經常性支出的增加則均會對經濟成長率造成負面影響；（2）在政府以租稅收入為融通來源下，非租稅收入增加將會降低經濟成長率；若政府以非租稅收入作為融通之財源，則此時租稅收入之增加將會降低經濟成長。 〔關鍵字〕資本支出、經常支出、同期相關性（Contemporaneous correlation）、異質性（HetereSkedaStiCity）、One-Way fixed（random）effect model、Two-way fixed（random）effect model、似無相關迴歸（Seemingly unrelated regression）

研究發展與廣告活動是市場上常見的非價格之差異化訴求，且投入與產出間皆具有未來之遞延效益。Sougiannis(1994)認為在衡量研發支出與企業價值之關聯性時應同時考量對盈餘的影響，方能真正衡量研發活動的效益。本研究延續這樣的觀念，不直接將研發、廣告活動與企業價值予以聯結，而試圖找尋存在兩者間的中介績效變數，透過這些績效變數與研發、廣告活動之投入關係來衡量無形資產生產力及對企業的績效貢獻。 　　異於過去之研究，本研究除探討研發、廣告投入的強度之外，尚考量投入的持續性對企業經營績效之影響。依據投入強度與持續性兩項標準將研發、廣告投入區分為高、低群組，檢定不同群組下研發、廣告投入與四項績效指標（市場佔有率、營收成長率、營業利益率及資產報酬率）的關聯性，並以其中最能代表企業本業營運活動的營業利益率為經營績效變數，分析在不同產業下企業研發、廣告支出與經營績效間之關聯性。 　　本研究之主要結論，就單變量之分析結果顯示，以研發投入強度及持續性為區分要素，塑化業、紡織業、機電業、資訊電子業樣本中高研發群組之營業利益率顯著優於低研發群組；以廣告投入為區分要素下則以食品業較具顯著性。同時以研發、廣告投入為區分要素時，塑化業、資訊電子業樣本中高群組之營業利益率顯著優於低群組。迴歸分析結果顯示，塑化業、紡織業、機電業、資訊電子業樣本之研發投入強度及持續性愈高，其營業利益率愈大，食品業、塑化業樣本的廣告投入愈大，其營業利益率愈高。 　　本研究之實證結果隱喻，研發、廣告活動之支出效益具產業差異，而此處資源耗用與預期經營績效具產業差異性之實證發現，或可提供各企業評估是否投入研發或廣告支出決策時之參考。 / Featured with differed and uncertain future economic benefits, investments in research and development (R&D) and advertising activities have been concerned as two major means for non-price competition. Sougiannis (1994) argues that without an understanding in how R&D activity contributes to firm value, the relationship found between R&D intensity and stock price could be spurious. Based on Sougiannis’ perspective, this thesis attempts to explore the productivity of these two long-term or asset-like expenditures. Specifically, this thesis examines the relation between R&D (Advertising) outlays and financial performance measures. 　　This thesis differs from previous studies in that this research considers not only the magnitude of R&D and advertising outlays but also the continuity in term of time horizon of such outlays. Based on the magnitude and longitude of R&D and advertising expenditures, the sample firms are divided into high and low groups by both criteria. The thesis first tests the correlation between R&D and advertising outlays and some performance measures. The thesis then examines in regression analysis the benefits of R&D and advertising expenditures to operating income in different industries. 　　The empirical results show that the operating income of high group is significant different from that of low group in Plastics and Chemicals, Textiles, Machineries, Electrical and Electronics. When the grouping is classified by advertising, the operating income is significant different in Foods industry only, while the grouping is based on both R&D and advertising, the significant difference exits in Plastics and Chemicals, Electrical, and Electronics industries. The regression results indicate that R&D outlays displays a significantly positive effect on operating income in Plastics and Chemicals, Textiles, Machineries, Electrical and Electronics industries, while the influence of advertising expenditure is found in Plastics and Chemicals, and Foods industries only. These findings may serve as a basis for strategic decision as to whether to invest heavily on R&D and advertising activities, since the productivity of R&D and advertising outlays, measured as the relationship between the related expenditures and firm operating income, differs across industries.

2011年，美國政府在經歷次級房貸和高軍事支出的雙重壓力下，爆發高度財政赤字的問題，造成歐巴馬政府面臨調高債務比例與債務上限的壓力。然而，在眾多的輿論聲中，美國民主黨與共和黨在八月底達成下列協議，減少政府支出、提高債務比例以及增加債務上限等；但是，是否這些方式將改善美國經濟？本篇文章在動態隨機一般均衡(DSGE)架構下，建立一個封閉經濟體系，並將政府支出加入私人廠商部門，透過公共投資，幫助私人廠商增加產出；並且在政府僅採行公債和徵稅融通下，找出一個最適的債務持有比例，使國內福利為最高。而本文發現政府進入生產部門時，將影響最適債務持有比例。即是，隨著政府支出生產彈性越大，最適債務持有比例也會上升，而在基準參數下，我們將會得到最適債務持有比例為百分之十的結論。 / In 2011, under the pressure of subprime mortgage and high military expenditure, the U.S. government accumulated high fiscal deficit, and the Obama government faced the pressure of raising debt ratio and raising debt ceiling. However, among the huge debates, the Republican Party and Democratic Party reached the deal in August which included cut-down government expenditure, raise debt ratio, raise debt ceiling, and so on. But, will these ways improve the U.S. economy? This paper follows the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework to construct a closed economy, which the government helps private firm to production through public investment. Besides, given that government only undertakes debt financing and tax financing, we try to find an optimal debt ratio which makes the highest domestic welfare. In our finding, if the government enters private production sector, the optimal debt ratio will be influenced. That is, the optimal debt ratio will increase with the production elasticity of government expenditure. Under the benchmark parameter, the optimal debt ratio is 10 percent.

本文的研究意旨在於探討企業所投入的研究發展支出及資本支出對經營績效及股價報酬產生何種影響，希望能提供給企業經營者在決定研發政策或資本支出決策時參考。 本論文以國內上市櫃公司（除金融服務業外）作為研究樣本，並以2001年至2011年間為實證期間，進行迴歸模型分析，探討研發支出、資本支出等重大支出對於公司經營績效及股價報酬所產生的效果，並探討國內電子次產業如半導體產業、光電產業、電腦周邊產業及電子零組件產業在研發與資本支出對經營績效與股價報酬的影響差異度；本論文在公司經營績效及市場價值的衡量指標，係以公司之資產報酬率、股東權益報酬率、營業毛利率、營業淨利率、營收成長率及公司Tobin’s Q值與股價報酬等作為衡量指標。 實證結果發現： 一、 就全體產業而言，研究發展支出對於企業之營業毛利率、營業淨利率及Tobin’s Q值有顯著正相關，但對於企業之營收成長率、資產報酬率、股東權益報酬率以及公司股價報酬率等項目並未出現顯著相關性；資本支出對企業之資產報酬率及股東權益報酬率則出現顯著負相關，同時資本支出對企業Tobin’s Q值及股價報酬率出現顯著負相關，但對於企業之營收成長率、營業毛利率、營業淨利率等未出現顯著相關性。 二、 針對電子次產業實證結果： 1. 針對半導體產業實證發現，研究發展支出對於公司資產報酬率出現顯著正相關，資本支出對於公司Tobin’s Q值及股價報酬率則呈現顯著負相關。 2. 針對光電產業的實證發現，研究發展支出對於企業經營績效指標包括公司營收成長率、營業毛利率、營業淨利率、資產報酬率及股東權益報酬率等，全數呈現顯著正相關；而資本支出對於公司Tobin’s Q值或股價報酬率呈現顯著正相關，但對於營業毛利率、營業淨利率、資產報酬率及股東權益報酬率等則呈現顯著負相關。 3. 針對電腦週邊產業的實證發現，研究發展支出對於公司營收成長率、營業淨利率、資產報酬率、股東權益報酬率及公司Tobin’s Q值等皆呈現顯著正相關；而資本支出則對於公司營收成長率出現顯著正相關。 4. 針對零組件產業的實證發現，研究發展支出對於公司營收成長率、營業毛利率、營業淨利率、資產報酬率、股東權益報酬率、公司Tobin’s Q值及股價報酬率等全數呈現顯著正相關；而資本支出對於公司營業毛利率、資產報酬率及股東權益報酬率等出現顯著負相關。 / This research mainly examines the related effect of R&D expenditure and capital investment on corporate performance and company’s stock price. The results of this study are trying to offer reference opinions to corporate executive officers that will make R&D or capital investment decisions. In this study, the database includes the listed companies in Taiwan Stock exchange except the finance industry from 2001 to 2011. We adopt R&D expenditure and capital investment as the independent variables of evaluating of corporate performance and company’s stock price, and also choose the growth rate of sales, the operating margin ratio, the net profit margin ratio, the return on total assets, the return on equity, Tobin's Q Ratio and company’s stock price as the dependent variables. The results of this investigation could be summarized as follows: 1. For all targeted industries, R&D expenditure had positive, significant influence on the operating margin ratio, the net profit margin ratio and Tobin's Q Ratio. Capital investment had negative, significant influence on the return on total assets, the return on equity, Tobin's Q Ratio and company’s stock price. 2. For Semiconductor industry, R&D expenditure had positive, significant influence on the return on total assets. Capital investment had negative, significant influence on Tobin's Q Ratio and company’s stock price. 3. For Optoelectronics industry, R&D expenditure had positive, significant influence on growth rate of sales, the operating margin ratio, the net profit margin ratio, the return on total assets, the return on equity. Capital investment had positive, significant influence on Tobin's Q Ratio and company’s stock price. 4. For Computer peripheral industry, R&D expenditure had positive, significant influence on growth rate of sales, the operating margin ratio, the net profit margin ratio, the return on total assets, the return on equity, and Tobin's Q Ratio. Capital investment had positive, significant influence on the growth rate of sales. 5. For Electronic components/material industry, R&D expenditure had positive, significant influence on growth rate of sales, the operating margin ratio, the net profit margin ratio, the return on total assets, the return on equity, Tobin's Q Ratio and company’s stock price. Capital investment had negative, significant influence on the operating margin ratio, the return on total assets and the return on equity.

No description available.

No description available.

本文旨在探討我國上市公司除了盈餘外，資本支出是否具有增額資訊內涵。研究內容分為兩個部份，第一部份在使用狀態空間樣型探討資本支出是否有助於預測未來盈餘；第二部份根據本文推導之模式探討資本支出資訊與股標報酬之關聯。〔分為年度研究與長期研究（兩年及三年）兩個部份〕。研究結果發現： 1.除了盈餘資訊外，資本支出無法幫助吾人預測未來盈餘。 2.無論係長期或年度研究，均呈現股價領先財務報表期間現象。在長期研究中，本文發現大公司之股價有post announcement drift現象。 3.盈餘、資本支出資訊（或財務報表資訊）對股價之解釋能力視股市係屬多空頭市場而定。多頭市場解釋能力較高。 4.長期研究財務報表對股價解釋能力高於年度研究。 5.盈餘水準、資本支出水準均具增額資訊內涵，不論長期或年度研究。 6.非預期土地投資與非預期廠房設備投資對股價均具解釋能力。 7.未預期資本支出反應係數之影響因素： (1)就成長機會而言： 股票市價╱權益比愈大之公司，營收成長率愈高之公司未預期資本支出反應係數愈大。 (2)就系統風險而言： β值愈大之公司，未預期資本支出反應係數愈大。 (3)就資本支出報酬率而言： 盈餘水準、盈餘持續度愈大之公司，未預期資本支出反應係數愈大；而自有資金比率愈低之公司，未預期資本支出反應係數愈大；小公司之資本支出反應係數較大；研發水準愈高之公司，未預期資本支出反應係數愈大。 (4)就資本支出受益年限而言： 本文以產業進入障礙為資本支出受益年限之替代變數。研究結果發現各行業之資本支出反應係數與產業進入障礙正相關。 (5)資本支出型態 規模成長型公司之資本支出反應係數大於汰舊換新型公司。 / This study aims to examine the incremental information content of capital expenditures of Taiwan listed companies. Taiwan listed companies generally have intensive capital expenditure rather then research and development costs in order to sustain the growth of their performance. Thus, this study suspects that the level of capital expenditures could help predict future earnings upon which capital expenditure could incrementally explain the earnings/return relationship. Empirically, this study first investigates the relationship between current capital expenditure and future earnings. Second, in order to select the optimal earnings/return windows, this study simulates the returns window for large and small firms over various long windows. Third, this study extends Collins and Kothari (1989) and Feltham and Ohlson (1995) to investigate whether the capital expenditure would contain an incremental information content in terms of earnings/return relationship. The findings of this study can be summarized as follows. 1.Besides earnings itself, the capital expenditure cannot well predict future earnings. 2.No matter what is temporal or cross sectional study, price leads the realization of earnings. In addition, the large firm sample group demonstrates the phenomenon of post-earnings drift. 3.The capital expenditure has more explanatory power to earnings/return relationship in the bull market than in the bear market. 4.Earnings and capital expenditure level have incremental information contents in terms of earnings/return relationship. 5.Both unexpected property and unexpected plant investments have explanatory power to the stock price. 6.The determinants of capital expenditure response coefficient, including growth opportunity, systematic risk, returns on capital expenditure, beneficial period of capital expenditure, and types of capital expenditure can increase the explanatory power of earnings/return relationship.

近年來，由於國內投資環境日趨惡化，企業界紛紛前往海外尋找投資機會，使國內產 業出現「產業空洞化」的危機。造成國內投資環境惡化的原因雖然涵蓋政治、社會… …等各個層面，但不容否認政府公共投資不足是相當重要的一個因素。因此，本文針 對政府公共支出與民間製造業生產力之關係，分別從理論與實證兩方面以分析討論， 期作為改善國內投資環境之參考。 本文主要分成三部份：第一部份是從純理論出發，探討政府公共投資是否俱有生產力 。第二部份及第三部份則分別以實證的方法，觀察政府公共支出( 投資 )與製造業生 產力之關係, 其中第二部份是以時間序列的方式, 將政府公共支出區分為國防及非國 防性支出、經常性與資本性支出，分別與製造業產出作迴歸，以觀察政府公共支出之 生產力。第三部分則更進一步，以橫斷面資料，將政府公共投資區分為四類，與個別 製造業產出作回歸分析，以觀察各種政府公共投資對不同類別製造業生產力之影響。 藉由以上分析，希望能找出政府公共投資與製造業生產力之明確關係，以作為政府增 加公共投資、改善國內投資環境之參考。