女性菁英政治參與之分析—以第五屆女性立委為例 摘 要 在歷史的洪流中，女性長久在政治場域缺席，進入二十世紀之後，女權才逐漸受到重視。當今世界各國，除了北歐五國以及其他少數歐美國家之外，台灣女性參政表現相當的亮眼。在中央級民意代表選舉上，2001年第五屆女性立委選舉，首次達到五十位女性進入國會殿堂。愈來愈多的優秀女性投入政治領域，也代表著今後權力的分享與資源的分配，必定要顧及性別的均衡。 本研究旨在結合菁英理論、民主多元理論與女性主義的視角，來探究台灣女性菁英在當前政治環境的從政優勢為何，及獲得政治權力之女性是否仍會受到性別歧視。 研究採用深度訪談法以及文獻分析法同時進行，透過文獻分析可以初步建構女性菁英的社會背景及參政行為模式，而深度訪談法，直接與女性政治菁英面對面訪談，一方面補書面資料之缺漏，一方面可瞭解女性從政者更為細膩之心境轉折。訪談對象為第五屆女性立委，受訪者共計17人。 根據文獻探討以及深度訪談的結果分析，本文提出以下幾點看法： 一、本文從女性政治菁英的教育程度、家族、婚姻關係、政黨以及派系五個面向切入，發現教育程度對於從政女性是明顯加分因素；家族與婚姻對於從政女性來講，有時是參政的阻礙，但家人若擁有相當的政治資源，女性當選的機率便大大提升；政黨相互競爭，可增加女性選民的發聲能量，對提升女性地位有正向影響，但隨著選舉制度的改變，政黨在選戰的重要性大增，政黨是否能夠真正落實婦女相關政策，將有待觀察；以往，女性從政者多是在執政黨與地方派系協調下進入政治領域，較無個人意志，但研究發現女性政治菁英不僅能善加利用當地勢力增加自己勝選機會，甚至成為地方派系的領袖。總之，女性如欲踏入政治領域，依附男性價值的情形已大為減少，且多已具備相當的性別意識。 二、社會對女性的刻版印象，相當程度仍影響女性的從政意願。首先是家務的勞動，讓許多女性從政者深感疲憊；婦女組織在每一次選戰中的動員力量愈來愈受矚目，但現階段仍不足以支持一位立委進入國會殿堂；隨著SNTV制度的改變，女性如欲投入政治，將更依賴政黨的提名，但筆者檢視各政黨第六屆不分區提名名單，各政黨仍有待改進。 總而言之，與以往相比，女性紛紛在政治領域上展露頭角，從政模式也與以前大不相同。以台灣政治生態的演變來看，女性政治菁英與政黨的關係將愈加密切。

政治學理中，將政黨定義為「具相同利益，以爭取政治權力為目標的團體」。政黨壟斷政治精英的甄補，藉由對公職候選人的提名競選以獲取權力。政治菁英透過黨公職歷練，形塑並推動黨綱的政治主張，並經由選舉取得政治權力。由此觀之，政黨菁英對政黨與政府決策發展、以及「認同政治」等研究議題而言，具有重要的關鍵影響力，也一直是重要的研究議題。 　　是故，那些人能為菁英？菁英如何獲取權位和政治權力？臺灣政治菁英的背景與甄補途徑，從威權至民主轉型以迄兩次政黨輪替至今又有何發展？本文嘗試從菁英理論出發，以國民黨籍第十四屆中常委至第十七屆中常委（1993-2008）為研究對象，藉由釐清民主化後至今的菁英甄補發展之脈絡，以分析國民黨籍菁英特質與甄補方式。 　　本文研究結果顯示，國民黨政治菁英甄補來源由早期黨職、公職選舉、考試、軍隊等四種途徑，隨本土化政策於1970年代轉變為本省籍技術官僚，至1986年民主化後在黨內權力鬥爭和在野黨競爭下，漸由民選政治菁英入主決策核心。政黨輪替後，國民黨中常會更由中央民代藉選舉實力及換票聯盟的運作而掌握多數席次，並漸有第二代繼承家族事業的發展趨勢。然而在菁英甄補來源日趨多元化的同時，其準黨國威權體制架構下的甄補機制民主化程度依然有限，促使國民黨將持續推動後續的改革。 / The political Elites obtain the power by elections through promoting the political opinion of the party platform and operation of the leading factor and national development. The Importance of the Elites has been an important research issue. Therefore, who will be the Elite? How do the elites take the power? What is the development of the elites of Taiwan from the authoritarian regime to now? Rested on the theories of Elite Recruitment. The thesis try to explore and analysis the background of the member and the recruitment mechanism of the members of the Kuomintang central committee form 14th to 17th (1993-2008). After The Party Transformation, the KMT legislators gain the most committee seats by their strength of electing and strategic alliance. There also have a transition within Political Family, However, as the more pluralism the member was, the demarcations of internal-party and the mechanism of recruitment wa insufficiency, by the way , the democratically reform of KMT both the mechanism of internal election and recruitment is necessary.

我國自1978年解嚴以降，修憲一直是我國民主化發展中最為重要的途徑。 而每一次的修憲皆對我國的政治、經濟、社會等層面產生極大的影響，也塑造出我國的政治文化。 自1950年代末期，Almond首次以「政治文化」(political culture)作為研究主題後，五十多年來，無論國內外，政治文化之研究已是重要的研究方向。 一般政治文化研究多著墨在人民的政治態度與取向；相對而言，「政治菁英的政治文化」的相關研究上卻付之闕如。在我國政治發展的歷程中，政治菁英扮演了重要的角色，尤其在威權轉型之後，他們對於國家重要制度的建立及政府體制的革新等，深深影響著我國之國家發展的走向。 故本文以政治菁英為主體，利用政治文化指標，從歷次修憲中探究政治菁英所表現出的政治文化類型，並深入探討政治菁英在修憲歷程中所扮演的角色與影響的層面。

本篇論文主要是探討從一九九一年到一九九六年俄羅斯政治菁英變動的情況。俄羅斯菁英的變動主要是根基於兩個主要的因素，一為戈巴契夫的改革，另一則為九一年的蘇聯解體。本篇文章主要是利用兩個面向去探討俄羅斯菁英變動的情形，一為菁英結構的分化，另一則為菁英政治態度的凝結度。同時我們認為利用職官名錄身份來測量新菁英是否為重製的標準是不妥當的。我們認為職官名錄應視為一政治階層，而非菁英團體。本篇論文研究的結果顯示，現今俄羅斯菁英的組成已經與過去蘇聯時期的菁英有所不同，尤其是新進角色—專業人員的加入更是重要。由此，可以得知俄羅斯菁英已經產生循環的現象。 / In this thesis we want to find out the situation of the change of the Russian political elite from 1991 to 1996. The change of Russian elite is influenced by two causes: one is the Gorbachev’s reform, the other is the collapse of the Sovit Union in 91’. In this thesis we use two dimensions, the differentiation of elite’s structure and the unity of elite’s political attitude, to find out in Russia the circulation of elite happens or not, and meanwhile we also argue the nomenklatura is used to be as a standard to measure the level of reproduction of elite is not appropriate. We think the nomenklatura is a political stratification, not a political elite group. The result of the study shows that the proportion of the Russian elite has been changed, is different from that of the Sovit Union. The character of New Comer, has been joined in the Russian elite group is the evident of the circulation of Russian elite has happened.

本研究嘗試以地緣政治研究途徑針對國際層面、國家層面來解釋俄烏天然氣爆發的深層政治因素與俄羅斯此作為的實際目的何在。 烏克蘭擁有黑海出海口，位居歐亞大陸中心，俄羅斯若控制了烏克蘭，便可直接與歐洲對話，因此烏克蘭對俄羅斯的戰略意義是不可忽視的。同時，2004年北約東擴後，烏克蘭是俄羅斯地緣安全的最後一道防線，尤申科加入北約之政策，自然招致莫斯科反彈。綜合以上因素，可以解釋出橙色革命後，俄羅斯與烏克蘭兩造於對外政策之矛盾，形成了天然氣衝突之背景。 從國際層面分析，長年依賴自俄羅斯進口之低廉能源導致烏國能源部門效率相對低落，加強了莫斯科對基輔的能源外交力度，故本文認為兩次天然氣衝突皆為俄羅斯藉由天然氣議題對烏克蘭施壓。儘管斷氣風波也招致歐盟抨擊，使得俄烏兩國國際形象大為受損；但短期來說，俄羅斯與歐盟的能源合作難以改變，但烏克蘭之能源過境地位則可能因為替代管線投入營運因素而受到弱化。 從國家層面分析，烏克蘭東部與南部多數人民支持親俄政權，西部多數人民則支持親西方政權，究其原因可分為：語言因素、宗教因素、民族因素、經濟因素、與歷史因素。本研究認為烏克蘭政治菁英之分歧導致政局動盪，同時，天然氣衝突給予不同政黨互相攻訐之議題，加上烏克蘭目前處於政治轉型之階段，以致於2006年至2008年爆發了多次政治危機。 2009年之天然氣協議提升了兩國交易透明度，然而烏克蘭之積欠天然氣債務問題仍為未知數，意味著未來俄羅斯依舊有再度對烏克蘭施壓之空間。 / In this study, I attempt to explain the political implications of natural gas conflicts between Russia and Ukraine at international and international level by means of geopolitical approach. Ukraine faces Black Sea and possesses central location in Euro-Asia continent. Russia has an initiative to intervene in European affairs if Ukraine is under its control. In a result, Ukraine is critical to Russia in its strategic layout. Meanwhile, after NATO Enlargement, Ukraine is the last defense boundary of Russia to ensure its geopolitical security. The policy of joining NATO under Yushchenko definitely brought Russia’s objections. It shows after Orange Revolution the discrepancy in foreign policy between Russia and Ukraine gave an incentive to natural gas conflicts. In the International system level, relying on gas imported from Russia at a low price led to relatively low-efficiency in Ukraine’s energy sections which strengthens the power of Russia’s energy diplomacy. Therefore, I believe the natural gas conflicts were aimed to put political pressure upon Ukraine. Although the interruptions brought about criticism from EC and caused great damage to the reputations of Russia and Ukraine, in the short term, it is unlikely to cease Russia-EC cooperation relationship in energy field. However, the status of Ukraine in energy transition could become less important due to the operations of alternative pipelines. In the state system level, most people in Eastern and Southern are in favor of pro-Russia parties or candidates and those in Western and Northern are in the opposite. There are five factors that led to its discrepancy: race, religion, language, economic, and history. The political unrest in Ukraine came from disagreements among elites and gas conflicts provided a pretext for them to attack their opponents. Additionally, this country was under political transformation. Because of these elements, Ukraine suffered from several political crises in the following three years since 2006. The new contract in 2009 provided a better transparency to Russia-Ukraine gas deal, but the problem of Ukraine’s gas debts was not yet dissolved. It suggests Russia is likely to put pressure upon Ukraine by means of energy diplomacy in the future.

本文討論焦點在於台灣政黨體系的變遷過程，影響台灣政黨體系變遷的因素，以及台灣政黨體系未來的可能走向。分別使用社會分歧理論、政治菁英理論以及制度論來解釋台灣政黨體系的變遷過程，並由各政黨在選舉結果的消長與選民政黨認同的變化兩個指標來觀察我國政黨體系的變遷。試圖建構一個通用的模式來解釋我國政黨體系發展的過程，以預期台灣政黨體系發展的未來走向。 經過全面觀察各政黨選舉結果的消長，以及選民政黨認同的變動情形之後，本文發現台灣政黨體系的變遷，主要發生在四個重要的時間點，第一個時間點是1986年民進黨的成立，第二個時間點是1993年新黨的成立，第三個時間點是2000年親民黨的成立與2001年台聯的成立，第四個時間點則是立委選制改變後的2008年立委選舉。 在變動的因素方面，雖然每一個變遷的時間點都有新政黨的出現，但是民進黨的出現是整個憲政環境由威權時期轉成民主化的結果，而新黨、親民黨與台聯則都是政治菁英之間的分裂。2008年主要是選舉制度的影響，不但新成立的政黨無法生存，連原有的小黨也都消失無蹤。 在穩定不變的因素方面，在台灣的政黨體系整個變遷的過程裡面，藍綠的區分一直都存在著。在藍綠對抗的主軸之下，台灣的政黨體系受到省籍、統獨立場以及國家認同等因素混合在內的分歧結構的長期影響，泛綠基本上掌握三成左右的基本盤，泛藍則是有四成出頭的支持度，中間還有二成多搖擺不定的部分，這個部分就是藍綠角逐的關鍵所在。這個藍綠對抗中第一個最重要的因素就是混雜了統獨立場、國家認同與省籍在內的社會與議題分歧，其次是政治菁英在歷次選舉過程中不斷地去操作這個分歧結構，藉此找到新政黨在意識型態光譜上的定位點，再加上SNTV選制容許小黨有生存空間，因此台灣的政黨體系隨之產生變遷。最後到了2008年，選舉制度的變革發揮了決定性的影響，使得我國的政黨體系確立為兩黨制。 在未來的發展趨勢上，研究發現，無論就政黨得票率、政黨支持度以及選舉制度的層面來看，國民黨似乎已經逐漸取回過半的優勢，民進黨則回到四成左右的基本盤。在沒有新議題或是新的政治社會分歧足以重新切割現有政黨體系之下，在目前雙首長制的憲政架構以及單一選區兩票制的國會選舉制度之下，我們預期政治菁英們的互動將朝向由國民黨代表泛藍勢力，民進黨代表泛綠勢力的兩黨政治體系逐步鞏固的方向前進。 / The main theme of this thesis focuses on the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, the factors which effecting the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, and the trend of Taiwan’s party system in the future. The author use social cleavage theory、political elite theory and institutional theory to explain the changing process of Taiwan’s party system. The author also uses two indexes including the vote-share of each party in every election, and the changing of voter’s party identification to observe the changing of Taiwan’s party system. This thesis tries to build a general model to explain the developing process of Taiwan’s party system and predict the future trend of Taiwan’s party system. After observing the election outcomes of each party and the changing of voter’s party identification, this thesis points out four important time points of Taiwan’s party system changing. The first time point is the presence of DPP in 1986, the second time point is the presence of NP in 1993, the third time point is the presence of PFP in 2000 and the presence of TSU in 2001, the fourth time point is the changing of electoral rule of legislative election in 2008. About the changing factor, in spite of the new party presence in each changing time point, the presence of DPP is due to the constitutional environment which the authoritarian regime transferred into democracy. The presence of NP、PFP and TSU are the outcome of the separation of political elites. The changing of party system in 2008 is mainly effected by electoral system, not only the new parties can’t survive, but the existing small parties also disappear. About the stable factor, during the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, there’s always a clearly distinction between “blue” and ”green”. Underneath the main stream of the confrontation between “blue” and “green”, Taiwan’s party system has long been effected by the cleavage structure which mixed with ethnic origin、unification or independent with china and national identity. The pan-green group basically maintains about 30% of vote share, the pan-blue group has more than 40% of vote share, the remaining 20% more of vote share is the key point for the struggle of pan-green and pan-blue forces. The most important factor in this confrontation process is the social and issue cleavage mixed with ethnic origin、unification or independent with china and national identity. Meanwhile the political elites are consequently manipulating the cleavage structure in every election process, in order to find some spaces in the ideological spectrum to form new parties. In addition to the SNTV electoral system allows small parties to appear and survive. That’s the reason why Taiwan’s party system changes over time. But in 2008, the changing of electoral system has the decisive influence and turn Taiwan’s party system into the two-party system. In the trend of future development, the research shows that, no matter in party’s vote share、party support rate or electoral system, KMT seems gradually having a leading advantage to get more than 50% of vote share. DPP has about 40% of vote share. If no more new issue or political-social cleavages to cut the existing party system, in the two-head executive constitutional structure and MMM electoral system, the interactions of political elites will tend to a consolidation of the two-party system which including a pan-blue force presented by KMT, and a pan-green force presented by DPP.

本論文從轉型理論與大眾動員理論來探討蒙古與台灣在民主轉型時期其影響選舉制度與憲政制度的因素。其中，將選舉制度進一步區分為總統選舉制度和國會選舉制度，以了解政治菁英間的互動與社會運動此兩個自變項的影響力。在民主鞏固時期，本論文則聚焦在影響兩國採取不同憲政體制的因素，欲探討政治菁英改革的動機與當時政治脈絡如何促使蒙古採用總理總統制，如何使得台灣採用總統議會制。此外，社會運動對當時政治菁英是否亦發揮一定程度的作用，是否提升或阻礙憲政的改革，亦是本研究探討重點之一。 本研究指出兩國在民主轉型時期，既有統治菁英在民主改革的壓力下，開始與反對運動菁英協商，既有的政治菁英有較大的決定權。政治菁英之間的互動是政治改革的重要推進力量，而下面的大衆抗議社會運動則提供了這些菁英之間達成協商的條件，其導致憲政改革或選舉制度改革。在憲政制度上，除了既有憲政遺緒與政治文化外，政治菁英間的不同偏好，亦影響兩國憲政體制的發展。在蒙古，制度的遺續應使得憲政體制傾向於總統制，但大多數菁英偏好權力較為分散的議會制，在政治協商下，最後促成半總統制的施行。在台灣，保守派政治菁英與改革派政治菁英的互動促成半總統制的影響，不過，也存在相關程度上的社會運動間接影響。 在民主鞏固時期台灣和蒙古皆是由政治菁英主導修憲，其中政治菁英間的互動主要影響憲政體制的設計，取得總統職位的民進黨和掌握立法院多數的國民黨政治菁英間的互動因素使得台灣偏向總統議會制，而掌握國會多數的民主黨和反對勢力人革黨政治菁英互動使得蒙古採用總理總統制。然而，公民社會對憲政體制設計並沒有直接的影響，但兩國的公民社會對於新生民主體制的鞏固扮演著重要角色。 綜言之，本研究所論有關政治菁英的互動與公民社會回顧如何影響選舉制度與憲政制度的設計，由於蒙古和台灣的經驗來看，大抵可了解政治菁英的改革動機與社會運動的壓力，是特定選舉制度與憲政制度被建立的重要關鍵。 / In this dissertation, the theory of transition and mass mobilization trying to explore different factors between Mongolia and Taiwan in the period of democratic transition and its impact on the electoral system and constitutional system. The electoral system will be further divided into presidential and parliamentary, to understand the interaction of political elites, the social movements, and their influence on the electoral and constitutional systems. Then, this dissertation will focus on the factors of democratic consolidation, affecting Mongolia and Taiwan to develop into a different constitutional system, the political elite reform motivation and how the political context promoted the premier-presidentialism in Mongolia, and how Taiwan acquired the president-parliamentarism. Moreover, to understand whether social movements played a certain degree of influence on the political elites, or whether they enhanced or hindered the constitutional reform is also one of the priorities of this investigation research. The dissertation also pointed out the ruling elite under the pressure of democratic reform, when they began negotiations with the opposition movement elites, they had greater discretion. The interaction among the political elite was an important force to promote political reform, and the following Mongolia public protest social movement created the conditions to reach consensus among these elites, which led to constitutional reforms or the reform of electoral systems. On the constitutional system, in addition to the existing constitutional legacy of the political culture, the different preferences among the political elites, but also affect the development of the two countries constitutional system. In Mongolia, institutional legacy made constitutional system tend to presidentialism, however most of the political elites prefer a more decentralized parliamentary system, in political consultations finally led to the implementation of semi-presidentialism. In Taiwan, the interaction with the conservative and the reformist political elite contributed to the impact of semi-presidentialism, however, there are indirect effects on the relevance of social movements either. The period of democratic consolidation in Taiwan and Mongolia was dominated by the political elites on constitutional system, the interaction among the political elites mainly affected the establishment of the constitutional system. The DPP won the presidency and the KMT the parliamentary majority, and the interaction of these political elites tend to shape Taiwan’s president-parliamentarism. In Mongolia, the Democratic Party political elite, with parliamentary majority, and the opposition MPRP political elite interaction evolved to premier-presidentialism. Although civil society had no direct impact on the constitutional system establishment, however, the development of civil society in Taiwan and Mongolia played an important role to consolidate the nascent democratic institutions. In conclusion, from Mongolian and Taiwan experience, we can understand that the motivation for the reforms of the political elite and the social movement pressure are the key for a particular electoral and constitutional system to be established.