本文是以市場研究（market study）的方式，探討制定會計原則的權威機構所發佈之 新的會計原則公報是否具有資訊內涵（information content ）。亦即調查會計報表 的主要使用者一投資人，是否會因企業改變所採用的會計原則而改變其對該企業之評 價，進而使該企業之股價發生反常的（abcdrmal）變動。 本文共壹冊，約六萬字，分為五章：第一章為緒論，概括地說明研究動機、目的及預 期貢獻；第二章則在發展理論上的研究架構，包括與研究有關的文獻探討；第三章為 研究方法論，介紹所使用的市場模式（market model），說明樣本資料之蒐集、統計 分析方法上的限制。第四章則解釋並分析統計的結果，第五章將彙總研究之結果，並 作結論與建議。

由於電腦革命的成功，在短暫的幾年之間，更加速了經濟的成長，而金融的投資分析，是社會經濟發展的原動力，因此研究這方向的財務數學也相對的提高了專家、學者的研究熱潮。就以股票、匯率市場來說，如果能比别人早一步掌握行情走勢，就能獲得較高的利潤。但影響股價、匯率波動的因素很多，尤其是在複雜多變及不確定性的資訊下。因此；如何進行更精確的趨勢分析與預測，是本文研究的主題。由於，傳統的期望值是二元的邏輯思考(非1即0)，比較無法符合多變與不確定的財金問題，因此本文考慮以模糊統計方法，以模糊期望值的方法來作趨勢分析與預測，期望能對複雜多變的財金體系提共一套更精確合理的投資分析方法，可以提供投資者更多的訊息，做出明確的抉擇。最後；以我國集中市場加權股票指數、台幣對美元匯率及台積電股價為例，做一實例上的詳細探討。 / Based on computer revolutionary coming off, economics grows fast in previous several years, then the investment analyze of finance is the impetus of development of society economic. Therefore, many experts and scholars are interested in the research of financial mathematics. Taking stock market and exchange market for example, if you can predict the future trend of market, you obtain more profit. However, there are many factors that act on stock prices and exchange rate. Especially, the market information is complicated and incomplete. How to go along accurate trend analysis and divination is the important point of the text research. Because traditional expectation value is dibasic logic thought (either 1 or 0), that can’t conform to the highly changeable and uncertain finance problems. For this reason, in this research we propose an integrated procedure for fuzzy expectation value modeling and forecasting through fuzzy relation equations. We apply this technique to construct a fuzzy expectation value model for Taiwan Weighted Stock Index and exchange rate and forecast future trend. We strongly believe that this model will be profound of meaning in forecasting future trend of financial market.

金融商品的價值是否可以預測呢？由避險基金的操作績效以及華爾街著名分析師的事前看法和事後印證來看，答案幾乎是肯定的。不過，大多數的投資人卻依然無法獲利。站在學術的角度上來看，[Fama ,1970]的效率市場假說告訴我們，一個有效率的市場是無法獲得超額報酬的，這論點也經常被學者用來檢驗市場是否具有效率性，研究的結果也都是證明市場是無效率的。因此，我們希望藉由發展專家對於股價指數的漲跌推論規則之本體論來提升金融商品領域之知識管理的廣度與深度。 本體論(Ontology)是知識管理的表現方式之一，[Gruber ,1993]闡述本體論是一種詞彙的規格，用來呈現我們想要分享的領域；可以定義類別、關係、功能、與其他物件。由於本體論提供的是一個領域嚴謹豐富的理論因此相當適合使用在知識工程的領域上[劉紅閣、鄭麗萍與張少方 ,2005]。另外，本體論的建構過程和物件導向設計非常的類似[Chandrasekaran, Josephson & Benjamins ,1999]，因此，在研究的過程中，我們將以物件導向設計來輔助本體論的分析。最後，使用Protégé 3.0這套相當普及化的本體論編輯工具作為系統實做的工具。 / Is the value of Financial banking products predicable? In view of the operating performance of hedge fund and the preliminary insights and the evidences afterward from the well-known analyst of Wall Street, the answer is almost positive. Nevertheless, the majority of investors still can not make profits from it. Based on the Academic points, (Fama, 1970) the theory of hypothesis if efficient market showed us that we can not make extra profits from the efficient market. And it is often used to examine whether the market is of efficiency. And the result of research also proved that the market is inefficient. Therefore, it is desired that we enhance the width and deepness of knowledge management of financial banking products with the Ontology of the inferred up-and-down principal of stock index developed by the efforts of experts. Ontology is one of the ways presenting knowledge management. (Gruber, 1993) explains that the ontology is the specifications of terminology which presents the domains we would like to share with. Classes, Relations, functions and other objects could be defined by that. Ontology provide us with the theory of strictness and richness of domains, therefore, it is very suitably utilized in the domains of knowledge engineering[劉紅閣、鄭麗萍與張少方 ,2005]. Besides, the construction process of Ontology is very similar to the object-oriented design. [Chandrasekaran, Josephson & Benjamins ,1999] Based on this, we will use the object-oriented design to assist the analysis of Ontology through our research . At last, Protégé 3.0 which is the very popular editing tool of Ontology is used as a tool for the system implementation.

本文內容主要可分為三大部分，第一部份是「本國銀行業逐年的競爭程度及其變化之分析」，主要是以Panzer-Rosse模型評估銀行業的競爭程度，實證結果顯示1996至2000年每年的金融市場處於壟斷性競爭或完全競爭，在考慮銀行業務差距頗大及極端值存在的可能之下，2001和2002年的銀行業為壟斷性競爭。相較於1996至2000年，2001至2002年銀行業的競爭程度有降低的現象。 第二部分是「銀行業的競爭程度與利息收入佔總資產比率之關聯性分析」，本文延伸Panzer-Rosse模型，以分量迴歸法取代傳統最小平方法，發現排除規模效果的影響下，位於利息收入的條件分配愈左端（即利息收入佔總資產比率較低）的銀行，其所處之金融環境競爭程度愈高。此外，亞洲金融危機受創最嚴重的五個東南亞國家，自金融風暴發生至2004年，位於經資產標準化的利息收入分配左端、或右端、或中間的銀行在各個國家雖遭遇不同的競爭環境變化，不過，平均而言，所有銀行面臨的競爭程度皆獲得改善。 第三部分是「以分量迴歸法分析會計盈餘的時效性與穩健性」，實證結果顯示會計盈餘對好消息認列的時效性和對壞消息認列的穩健性會受企業當期的盈餘水準所影響。若企業當期的盈餘水準愈差，則會降低其盈餘的時效性，但是會提高其盈餘的穩健性。相反地，若當期的盈餘水準愈高，則會提高其盈餘的時效性，但是會降低其盈餘的穩健性。 / There are three issues in this dissertation. The first one is to analyze the yearly degree of competition and its variation in Taiwan’s banking industry with the Panzer-Rosse model. We find that the markets over the period 1996-2000 were characterized with monopolistic competition or perfect competition, while the system was characterized by monopolistic competition in 2001 and 2002 after we take into consideration the possibility of outliers. Furthermore, the results also suggest that the competition has declined in Taiwan’s banking industry. The second topic is to investigate the relationship between banking competition and the ratio of banks’ interest revenues to total assets. The results show that while the ratio of bank’s interest revenues to total assets is lower, the bank faces a more competitive market. Moreover, competitive pressures have been improved for banks with different levels of interest revenues over total assets in East Asia after the financial crisis occurred in 1997. About the final issue, we try to find whether firms’ contemporaneous earnings affect the timeliness and conservatism of accounting earnings and their relationship. Our results show that the degree of timeliness and conservatism of accounting earnings are relevant to the level of earnings. Specifically, firms with poor earnings will decrease their earnings in recognizing good news but increase the level of conservative accounting. On the other hand, the level of conservative accounting is a decreasing function of earnings while the timeliness in recognizing good is increasing in earnings.

股價的漲跌變化是由於證券市場中眾多不同投資人及其投資決策後所產生的結果。然而，影響股價變動的因素眾多且複雜，新聞也屬於其中一種，新聞事件不但是投資人用來得知該股票上市公司的相關營運資訊的主要媒介，同時也是影響投資人決定或變更其股票投資策略的主要因素之一。本研究提出以新聞文件做為股價漲跌預測系統的基礎架構，透過文字探勘技術及分類技術來建置出能預測當日個股收盤股價漲跌趨勢之系統。 本研究共提出三種分類模型，分別是簡易貝氏模型、k最近鄰居模型以及混合模型，並設計了三組實驗，分別是分類器效能的比較、新聞樣本資料深度的比較、以及新聞樣本資料廣度的比較來檢驗系統的預測效能。實驗結果顯示，本研究所提出的分類模型可以有效改善相關研究中整體正確率高但各個類別的預測效能卻差異甚大的情況。而對於影響投資人獲利與否的關鍵類別"漲"及類別"跌"的平均預測效能上，本研究所提出的這三種分類模型亦同時具有良好的成效，可以做為投資人進行投資決策時的有效參考依據。 / Stocks' closing price levels can provide hints about investors' aggregate demands and aggregate supplies in the stock trading markets. If the level of a stock's closing price is higher than its previous closing price, it indicates that the aggregate demand is stronger than the aggregate supply in this trading day. Otherwise, the aggregate demand is weaker than the aggregate supply. It would be profitable if we can predict the individual stock's closing price level. For example, in case that one stock's current price is lower than its previous closing price. We can do the proper strategies(buy or sell) to gain profit if we can predict the stock's closing price level correctly in advance. In this thesis, we propose and evaluate three models for predicting individual stock's closing price in the Taiwan stock market. These models include a naïve Bayes model, a k-nearest neighbors model, and a hybrid model. Experimental results show the proposed methods perform better than the NewsCATS system for the "UP" and "DOWN" categories.

過去研究指出，公司管理當局可藉由即時揭露更多攸關資訊以降低市場之資訊不對稱，而管理當局所發布之財務預測亦為揭露資訊之一種。我國證管會於民國八十年五月起正式實施強制性財務預測制度，影響資本市場甚鉅。本研究旨在探討管理當局所發布之財務預測對資本市場資訊不對稱之影響，進而推論我國強制性財務預測制度對於降低資本市場之資訊不對稱是否有其功效。 本研究採用股票交易量、股價變異性及市場深度作為資訊不對稱之代理變數，實證結果顯示： 1.在強制性財務預測制度實施前，自願發布財務預測之公司於預測發布後，其資訊不對稱顯著較預測發布前降低；然與未發布財務預測公司相較之結果卻顯示，以股票交易量為資訊不對稱之代理變數時，發布財測公司於預測發布後之資訊不對稱反而顯著較未發布財測者為高。 2.在強制性財務預測制度實施後，強制或自願發布財務預測之公司於預測發布後，其資訊不對稱程度仍顯著較其發布前降低；而以股價變異性為資訊不對稱代理變數之結果亦顯示，發布財測公司於預測發布後之資訊不對稱顯著較未發布公司為低。 3.以市場深度為資訊不對稱代理變數之結果顯示，在強制性財務預測制度實施後，發布強制性財務預測之公司，其資訊不對稱於預測發布後顯著降低；此外，與發布自願性財務預測公司相較之結果顯示，發布強制性財測公司於預測發布後，其資訊不對稱程度不顯著高於發布自願性財務預測者。 / A firm can increase levels of disclosure to lower the information asymmetry. Financial forecast released by managers is also one of information about corporation. Our country began to implement the mandatory financial forecast regulations since May, 1991. This study mainly investigates the association between financial forecast released by companies and the mandatory financial forecast regulations. Furthermore , it also investigates that if the regulations effectively mitigate information asymmetry. This study uses trading volume, price volatility, and market depth as proxies for the information asymmetry. The empirical results show that: 1.Before May, 1991, corporations with voluntary forecast significantly mitigated the information asymmetry after the forecast released. But the information asymmetry (use trading volume as a proxy) of corporations after forecast released was not significantly lower than corporations without forecast. 2.After May, 1991, corporations with mandatory or voluntary forecast also significantly mitigated the information asymmetry after the forecast released. And the information asymmetry (use price volatility as a proxy) of corporations after forecast released was significantly lower than corporations without forecast. 3.After May, 1991, corporations with mandatory forecast significantly mitigated the information asymmetry (use market depth as a proxy) after the forecast released. And the information asymmetry of corporations after mandatory forecast released was not significantly higher than corporations with voluntary forecast.

波浪理論是由 Nalph Nelson Elliott在1938年所發表的價格趨勢分析工具，它也是近年來技術分析界運用相當廣泛的一種工具。艾略特認為：「不管是股票或是任何商品價格的波動，都與大自然潮汐一樣，具有一種相當程度的規律性。」。其實這個原理和產業周期循環也很接近，運用於越多人參與的市場會越準確，因為人性也是一種大自然的現象。 台灣加權股價指數是以民國55年為基期100來編製，本文雖由民國55年談起，但由於資料繁多，故集中採用民國76年1月至民國95年12月的二十年資料做為資料收集期間，以艾略特波浪理論的原則找出在台灣股市的應用規則，進而推演出未來的走勢。 / Wave Principle is a trend analysis method that was developed by Nalph Elliott in 1938. Today, the principle is one of the most widely adopted methods for technical analysis in finance. Elliott discovered that the ever-changing path of stock market prices reveals a structural design that in turn reflects a basic harmony found in nature. In fact this principle is also similar to industry cycle. When this principle is utilized in a market, especially when a lot of people participate in this market, the principle will be rather accurate, because humanity is also a natural phenomenon. The Taiwan Weighted Stock Index was at 100 in 1966, the base period. Although the discussion in this paper starts from 1966, due to the abundance of the data, I decide to focus my research on the recent twenty years. The purpose of this study is to identify the usability of Eilliott’s Wave Principle by applying it in Taiwan’s stock market and to figure out the trend for the future.

在網際網路快速發展下，大量使用者在獲取知識與新聞的管道，已由傳統媒體轉移到網路上。網路活動下使用者互動後所留下的訊息，也就是網路口碑，也逐漸受到重視。而隨著經濟發展，國人在固定薪資下無法負擔高房價、高物價的生活，如何透過投資理財來增加自身財富，已是非常普遍，其中又以股市投資為大眾所重視之途徑。 網路新聞的發布，除了具有網路的即時性外，配合使用者閱讀內化後所留下的評論，應含有比網路新聞本身內容更多的資訊，投資者便可藉此找尋隱含之中大量市場消息與資訊。 本研究為了在龐大的資料量中，幫助使用者挖掘其背後之涵義，進而提供投資預測，將蒐集網路新聞及其閱讀者評論共1068篇，並分為訓練資料與測試資料，使用文字探勘及相關技術做前處理，再透過kNN分群技術，計算訓練資料文件間相似度，將大量未知資料依其相似度做分群後，利用歷史股價訊息對群集結果之特徵分析解釋之並建立預測模型，最後透過測試資料將模型分群結果進行評估，進而對股價趨勢做出預測。 / With the rapid development of the Internet, the way of user access to knowledge and news transfer from traditional media to the network. Internet word-of-mouth, the message generated from users' interaction on internet, attracts more and more people's attention. With economic development, people in the fixed salary cannot afford high prices and high price in live. People increase their own wealth through investment is very common, among which the stock market is the way to public attention. Internet news has the immediacy of the Internet. And the comments left with the user to read the internalization should contain more information than the Internet news. Investors can find the market news and information by Internet news and comments. In this study, in order to help the user to find the meaning behind the huge amount of data, and thus provide investment forecast. We will collect 1068 of internet news and reader reviews to divide into training data and test data using text mining and related technologies to do the pre-treatment, and then calculate the similarity between the training data by kNN, a lot of unknown data according to their similarity clustering. Cluster through the historical share price analysis and modeling. Finally, the model clustering results were evaluated through the test data to predict price trends. The prediction model from training data clustering, use test data to do the evaluation found: k = 15, the similarity threshold value = 0.05, cluster the results of the F-measure performance up to 56% rise in the cluster. K values and the similarity threshold will be adjusted to obtain the most favorable results of the model

2015~2016年間台灣金融業發生許多重大新聞事件，隨著資訊科技普及，網路搜尋已成為大眾獲取資訊的重要管道。本文利用Google Trends關鍵字搜尋指數作為網路關注度的代理變數，進行與台灣上市金控公司股價報酬相關之研究。 本文使用三種研究方法進行探討，首先利用圖表式比對法，初步觀察異常搜尋指數與異常報酬出現時間之關聯性，結果並未發現搜尋指數與台灣上市金控股價報酬間有明顯且一致的關係；接著套用向量自我迴歸模型進行分析，然而14家台灣上市金控公司中，僅從兆豐金數據可發現前一期搜尋指數的異常變動量增加1%將使下一期異常報酬率下降約2.67%；最後參考相關文獻使用Fama Macbeth兩階段迴歸模型，結果發現平均而言搜尋指數的異常變動量每上升一個標準差會顯著影響兩週後股價的異常報酬率下降約0.17%，SVI對於股價報酬影響為負向符合本文研究動機與背景，且有相關文獻指出投資人對於壞消息的反應較慢，因此使股價報酬有延後反應的現象，但無法解釋兩週的反應時間，因此對於這樣的研究結果持保留的態度。 總結三種研究方法所得結果，本文認為網路關注度對於目前台灣上市金控公司股價的影響仍然有限。 / It’s unquiet for Taiwanese Financial industry between 2015 and 2016. There has been a lot of major news. With the popularity of information technology, Internet search has become an important channel for public access to information. Therefore, we use Search Volume Index (SVI) as a proxy for public online attention and conducts research related to the stock returns of listed financial holding companies in Taiwan. In this paper, three kinds of research methods are used. The first way is chart comparison method for preliminary data analysis. The results couldn’t show a clear and consistent relationship between SVI and stock returns. The second method is vector self-regression model. However, only Mega financial holding company’s result indicates abnormal search volume index(ASVI) increase 1% will decrease next week abnormal return by 2.67%. At last, we use Fama Macbeth two-stage regression model and find that on average 1 standard deviation increased in ASVI will decrease abnormal return by 0.17% after two weeks. The negative impact of SVI on the stock returns of financial holding companies is in line with the research motivation and background, and some relevant literatures prove that investors’ response to the bad news is slow, which leads to the delayed response of stock returns. However, the two weeks of reaction time for stock returns is unknown. In conclusion, this paper finds out that the impact of public online attention on share price of listed financial holding companies in Taiwan is still limited currently.

本研究的目的在於探討企業的財務結構決策是否攸關市場價值。根據加權平均資金成本與企業評價模式相關文獻基礎，產生下列三個假設：(1)資本結構與平均資金成本存有關聯性；(2)最適資本結構必須存在，以使平均資金成本達到最低；(3)平均資金成本與企業價值也存有關聯性。故本研究之實證議題探討：(1)平均資金成本與資本結構的關聯性以及最佳資本結構是否存在(2)加權平均資金成本、權益資金成本與企業價值的關聯性(3)資本結構與平均資金成本之關聯性對企業價值的影響。 本研究使用民國80年至88年台灣證交所股票上市公司作為樣本資料，主要的實證結果如下。財務結構與平均資金成本具有顯著的負向關係，故實證結果並不支持M-M 的槓桿無關論。在十八個產業中，大約半數的產業存在最適資本結構。此外，相對於平均資金成本而言，權益資金成本與股價報酬呈現顯著的負向關係，且具有較高的解釋力；這個結果強調了權益資金成本在解釋股價報酬上的重要性。 本研究亦發現，企業經理人無法透過財務結構的調整來極大化企業的價值，經理人應該考量其他方式來極大化公司的價值。 / The purpose of this thesis is to investigate whether financial structure decisions of a firm are relevant to its market value. Three assumptions underlie the literature on weighted average cost of capital and firm valuation models. First, the linkage exists between the capital structure and the average cost of capital. Second, in order to minimize the average cost of capital, the presence of optimal capital structure is required. And third, the relationship exists between the average cost of capital and firm values. The empirical issues explored in this thesis therefore include: (1) The relationship between the average cost of capital and the capital structure and the presence of optimal capital structure; (2) The association between weighted average cost of capital, cost of equity capital and firm values; and (3) The influence of capital structure-average cost of capital relationship on firm values. Using the listed companies on Taiwan Stock Exchange over the period of 1991 to 1999 as the sample, major empirical findings are as follows. The empirical evidence indicates that financial structure is significantly negatively associated with the average cost of capital, which in turn may imply the M-M leverage irrelevance proposition is not supported by the sample firms examined. About half of the 18 industries examined in this study suggest the presence of optimal capital structure. Furthermore, compared to the average cost of capital, the cost of equity capital is found to be significantly and negatively associated with stock returns and has better explanatory power. This emphasizes the importance of the cost of equity capital in interpreting the behavior of stock returns. In addition, this thesis also finds that managers’ influence of maximizing firms’values through adjusting their firms’financial structures is limited. Managers may have to find avenues other than financial structure decisions to maximize the values of their firms.