根據艾瑞克遜（E. H. Erikson ）發展階段論，青少年階段主要的發展任務為性別角 色的肯定與事業的選擇。有鑑於高中學生於此發展階段中，其性別角色與事業雛形的 建立，深受教師及父母的影響，本研究的主要目的即在於探討教師、父母對高中生性 別角色、事業與家庭取向之期望與高中生在這一方面自我期望之關係，據以驗證教師 期望的理論，並提出結論與建議，作為增進師生與親子關係之參考。 本論文共分五章。第一章為緒論，敘述作者之研究之研究動機與研究目的。第二章為 文獻探討，乃就有關文獻，探討教師期望、父母期望與自我期許之相互關係，以為本 文之理論依據。 第三章為研究方法，係將本研究之樣本、研究工具、實施步驟、統計方法等作詳細說 明。第四章為結果與討論，乃就所得資料之統計結果，進行分析、討論。第五章為結 論與建議，即根據理論探討與實證結果，提出結論與建議，並提供進一步研究之參考 。

本論文計一冊，約十萬字，共分六章十六節。其中第一章為緒論。第二章為「經濟計 劃的基本理論」，分別探討經濟計劃的概念與歷史發展，經濟計劃的各種分類，經濟 計劃的設計機構，設計方法及其執行、檢討與修正等。第三章探討「民生主義的經濟 制度與發展策略」，先瞭解經濟制度與經濟計劃的關係以及在民生主義的經濟制度中 ，經濟計劃所扮演的角色。其次是探討民生主義的經濟發展策略。第四章介紹「我國 現階段經濟計劃之實施」，將我國各期經建計劃演進的情形以及主要目標與重點作概 要性的介紹，政府在經建計劃執行中的配合措施亦分期作重點的介紹。第五章是「我 國現階段經濟計劃的檢討」，分為設計方面的檢討，招待方面的檢討，以及成果的檢 討。第六章則為結論。

本研究提出一個兩階段的時空模型來分析空氣污染與健康的關係。我們選取在台灣的49個有設置空氣品質監測站的鄉鎮市區做為研究地區。資料包含這些小地區中1997-2001年的各地區每日因呼吸道疾病而就醫的門診人數與空氣污染物濃度與氣象監測資料。在第一階段中，對每一個月所有地區的每日因呼吸道疾病而就醫的門診人數與空氣污染配適時空模型，並利用氣象條件等因素做調整。在第二階段裡，利用線性混合效果模型將第一階段所獲得的60 個月空氣污染物係數估計值來獲得代表這五年全國整體污染物係數的估計。本文利用模擬研究來探討當季節因素與不可解釋的因素，例如像流行性感冒等存在時會對文獻上其他時空模型中參數的估計所造成的影響，同時與我們所提出的方法作一比較。 / We proposed a spatiotemporal model to investigate the association between the acute health effects and daily numbers of clinic visits for respiratory illness. The data include clinic records due to respiratory illness and environmental variables from air quality monitoring stations in Taiwan during 1997-2001. A small-area design and two-phase modeling were used for the analysis. In the first phase, we constructed a Poisson regression with autogressive residual process and spatial correlation to obtain the pollution coefficient of each single month. In the second phase, we combined the information from phase one model to improve estimates of the pollution coefficients of each month and to obtain an overall pollution coefficient across the temporal course. Simulation study was used to illustrate the bias of estimation when there are seasonal, spatial and the unexplained effects in the data.

「中年轉換」係指發生於個體40歲至60歲之間內在與外在的轉變，中年轉換期帶給中年女性的種種轉變是危機還是轉機，中年轉換對女性的意義為何，以及中年女性的自我構成如何與個人經驗、生活事件與外在環境相互型塑，尚待本土研究釐清。研究者帶著對「中年女性」的好奇，開始一段認識中年女性的旅程，並在此呈現兩位中年女性的生命史。 研究者發現，在「中年」這個面向，兩位受訪者的「中年」可能是心理年齡、心理階段而非單純是生理成熟驅動的生理階段。其次，兩位受訪者並未將中年轉換視為中年危機或者中年轉機，而是將其視為生命事件的其中之一。 研究者也發現，在「自我」這個面向，社會與文化脈絡有其重要性，兩位受訪者的自我構成無論偏向獨立我或者相依我，其跟生活環境、關係緊密度與生命主題而有相當的關連，因此從「關係」的角度看自我的發展對女性而言可能是重要的。其次，研究者發現，中年的自我統整不一定是統整為單一整體，中年的自我統整可以是個體對多元自我的一統整性認識，「我」可能是單數，可能是複數，也可能持續不斷生成。 除了呈現兩位女性的故事，本研究也呈現年輕研究者對於「研究」本身的省思，並誠實記錄研究框架的建構與解構歷程。 / Mid-life transition means a series of psychological and physical changes occurring during one’s middle age. How women make sense of it and how it intertwines with women's personal experiences, life occurrences and surroundings are the main interests of this research. After searching through the life stories of Ms. Chou and Ms. Kao, with regard to the mid-life subject, it's found that life occurrences, rather than merely physical changes, drive their life stages to transit. 2 interviewees both see mid-life transition as one of the many events among life occurrences instead of a crisis or a turning point. It's also unfolded that, with regard to the construct of self, discussion on social and cultural contexts is evidently important. The self - "independent" or "interdependent" - actually intertwines with surroundings, relatedness and life themes. Secondly, it's also revealed that the integrated self at mid-life stage can be one integrated self, or an integrated acknowledgment of the fact that, one's self can involve many dimensions and the dimensions can still be growing. In addition to the life stories of Ms. Chou and Ms. Kao, this research also documents the introspection of a young researcher. This is also a truthful documentation of the construction and de-construction of a research framework.

本文採用三階段之DEA經濟效率分析民國93年至民國96年46家臺灣本國銀行的表現，其中第二階段依Fried et al. (1999)所示，利用Tobit迴歸將可能的外部環境因素排除，本文特色為在此階段考慮臺灣於民國95年甫正式上路之財務會計準則第34號公報及其對金融資產，特別是衍生性金融所造成的影響。本文發現：經二階段調整後效率值確有顯著的差異，故壞帳、公民營、衍生性商品使用程度、分行數等非內部經營管理所能掌握因素排除後，效率值確實改變；且衍生性商品使用程度，以各銀行衍生性金融商品名目本金除以總資產以為衡量之，將此一外在環境制度因素加入第二階段TOBIT分析，結果顯示其確實顯著的影響資本資金及投入等三項差額變數，且均為遞增關係。 / In this research we try to analyze the efficiency of Taiwan’s banking industry with multi-stage DEA approach. Following Fried et al. (1999), we exclude the environmental factors by running Tobit regressions for every input variables at the second stage. Among all existing researches focus on banking efficiency, this is the only one which take into account the effect of Accounting Standards No. 34. The new rule set up different concepts about how to disclose financial assets and derivatives properly, which may also change consumers’ behaviors. We find out that the second stage adjustments did make differences on efficiency scores. Also the usage of derivatives are proved to be significantly and positively related to three input slake variables.

犯罪防治在各縣市警察機關勤務中具有一定的重要性，本研究目的在於評估各縣市警察機關執行治安與犯罪預防之相對效率。因為內政部將各縣市警察機關分成直轄市、甲級與乙級等三級制，故相對警力投入非常不一致，對犯罪預防效率會產生干擾，為將此項外在環境因素所造成的干擾排除，本研究採取三階段資料包絡分析法，針對臺灣23個縣市警察局，在民國93至95年間，建立評估相對效率之實證模型。研究結果發現未排除環境因素干擾前，臺灣地區各縣市警察局的治安與犯罪預防之平均相對規模效率高於純技術效率，顯示治安與犯罪預防之無效率應為生產技術的影響；此外，甲級縣市警察局的總技術效率值最高，反之，直轄市警察局的治安與犯罪防治效率為最低。在排除環境因素干擾後，臺灣地區各縣市警察局平均治安與犯罪預防相對效率有輕微下降現象，其中，乙級縣市警察局的治安與犯罪防治效率，反而上升到為最高。此外，乙級縣市警察局呈現高比例的規模報酬遞減現象，表示乙級縣市警察局應縮減其所分配到的經費規模，反之，甲級縣市警察局呈現高比例的規模報酬遞增現象，表示甲級縣市警察局應相對增加所得到經費；至於，直轄市警察局的治安與犯罪防治效率並不好，並且，在第三階段分析結果顯示應該再增加直轄市警察局的經費投入，方有助於提升其治安與犯罪防治效率，但是目前直轄市警察局所分配到的警力與經費，已高於甲級與乙級縣市警察局很多，可知，目前直轄市警察局的高額警力投入，可能不完全為提升與改善治安與犯罪防治效率，而應還有其它的重要工作項目，如政府維安，交通維護等。 / The role of crime prevention plays an important role for each county’s police department in Taiwan. This study employs three-stage data envelopment analysis to evaluate the relative crime prevention efficiency among 23 counties police departments in Taiwan from 2004 to 2006. National Police Agency classifies these 23 counties police departments by three categories, A, B and C, in terms of the amount of police force investment. Based on the first-stage analysis, it concludes that relative crime prevention inefficiency for each county comes from the inappropriate police force investment. There are no significant different results in the third-stage analysis. A class, Taipei City and Kaohsiung City police departments which have highest police force investment, have relative lower crime prevention efficiency. However, the C class counties’ police departments, such as Yunlin County and Pingtung County, with lowest police force investment have better performance with highest crime prevention efficiency. And, B class counties’ police departments, such as Taipei County, Kaohsiung County, and Taichung City, with relative higher police force investment have second best performance in crime prevention efficiency. Therefore, this study suggests that the budget of police force investment needs reallocation among three different categories of police departments; the police departments of Taipei City and Kaohsiuang City may consider cutting down some non-related crime prevention services.

從無線語音通訊(Voice)的日漸普及，以及日益下降的語音ARPU(Average Revenue Per User)的趨勢看來，所有的行動電信營運商(Telecom Operator)都開始在鑽研如何去推動數據的收入(Data Revenue)，以及所謂的加值型服務的利潤，借以廣增收入及營運利潤的提昇。所以如何建立一個正確的『營利模式』成為全世界所有行動電信營運商最關切的焦點之一。 台灣在行動電信數據服務以及加值型服務方面，其實發展得很早，曾經有過兩次相當大而且相當慘痛的失敗經驗。一次是在2000年和信電訊股份有限公司曾經有過引進日本NTT DoCoMo i-mode的慘痛失敗經驗；另外一件是在2003年亞太行動寬頻電信股份有限公司也曾經歷過引進韓國SK Telecom的SKVM數據服務平台技術移轉的失敗經驗。這兩起的案例由於個人都剛好身歷其境，所以印象特別深刻，檢討起來失敗的原因固然很多，但是其中如何去正確建立一個適合台灣的主客觀環境的『營運模式』卻是一個相當值得探討的問題。 手機一直是行動電話產業裡最熱門的話題，從以前的所謂的『大哥大』(AMPS類比式)手機時代，走入今天的第三代行動通訊所謂的3G『智慧型手機』的時代。手機應該算得上是繼PC電腦以來，發展最快，對人類的生活文明最具影響力的產品之一。PC是坐著那邊使用的工具，而手機卻是人們天天帶在身邊，帶著到處跑的『不可或缺的一部分』。有的人每天也許可以沒有去用電腦，但是很多人每天如果沒有手機在身邊的話，那會是一件非常嚴重的事情。手機發展的很快，也愈做愈像一台能夠隨身帶著走的『智囊包』了。不但包辦所有個人週邊的服務，尤其是所謂的『多媒體影音及下載』功能(有人稱之為:「多媒體手機」)，『網際網路』上網及網路週邊的服務功能，甚至所謂的『人對機』、『機對人』、以及『機對機』等未來無比的想像空間的一些功能及發展。所有設計出來的『營運模式』都要先透過手機去呈現在消費者面前，電信營運商也要先去做許多的驗證實驗(Initial Service Launch)以後，再去正式的推到市面上去。然後再從消費者的滿意度指標(KPI)裡去確認這些被建立的『營運模式』是正確的。 本論文就是站在是一個行動電信營運商(Telecom Operator)的立場，從『智慧型手機』的發展角度來探討未來應該如何去正確建立一個『營運模式』來。主要論述點是從國外一些成功的行動電信營運商們的『營運模式』做切入點，再探討一些台灣的第三代行動通訊上所謂的『加值型服務』(Data Service數據服務)一直發展不起來的原因；另外再從『智慧型手機』以及『手機上網』的角度去探索出一些建議，以做為正確建立一個『營運模式』（Business Model）的基礎。本研究著眼於在行動電話傳統以來就以「語音(Voice)」為主要獲利的「營運模式」，在經過「第三代行動通訊」從「建置期」到「營運期」動態競爭市場愈演愈烈的情勢下，行動電話營運商從一個完全「主導的角色」逐漸轉變成一個「中介者的角色」，其「營運模式」的選擇固然會因為各家電信營運商的「財力、物力」；及「可動用的資源」有所差異，但是在「策略」及「營運模式」的釐訂上也有相當大的學問，有時候看人家(國外)的成功，及複製人家的「成功關鍵因素」並不見得就會「一定成功」的。重要的是要能在「不同的競爭環境」下，以及「艱困險惡的競爭態勢裡」，要能「看得到別人沒看到的市場」商機，要能「把握到每一個轉折的時間點」，然後將「有效的資源集中的投下去」，勝利成功是必然的。 本研究主要的結論包括： 1. 第三代行動通訊數據服務及加值型應用服務之營運模式(Business Model)與傳統的電信服務以voice語音為主的營運模式有顯然的不同點，無法以現有的營運模式來經營數據服務及加值行應用服務。但是採行「老二主義」(也就是所謂的「跟隨主義」)在第三代行動通訊市場動態競爭環境下是可行的策略之一。（本研究案例--日本KDDI及亞太行動即為其例） 2. 傳統以「語音」為主的「營運模式」與「數據服務及加值型應用服務」為主的「營運模式」差異點為以語音為主的營運模式其主要在於對語音服務的『資費價格』(Rate price)做調制，就會對市場及競爭者產生影響力，而且這些調制的主控權是可以完全操控於營運商的掌控中的。對數據及數據加值型應用服務營運模式來說，電信營運商必須退居於「中介者」的角色，以撮合各個價值鏈的「供應商」們一起來，創建「最高的客戶價值」，並從這些撮合的過程中分得應有的利潤。(本研究案例--日本NTT DoCoMo i-mode) 3. 本研究案例是以國內行動電話，一個已完全競爭的市場裡，以一個後進者(本研究案例公司—亞太行動）開始進入市場，在幾經仔細觀察競爭者的動態後，終於發現了一個「競爭者忽略的市場空間」；以及「競爭者沒有發現的市場空間」，然後再以「更便宜的產品」切入市場，終於勝出於市場。 4. Apple繼iPOD及iTune成功之後，以一個在Music Download世界裡，完全以提供消費者Content內容服務的角度。另外，Google也以一個提供消費者全方位Internet網際網路服務的角度，雙雙切入「智慧型手機」市場，甚至於「整個的行動電話市場」，確實帶給整個手機市場無比的震撼。本研究發現iPhone也好，Google Phone也好，都是從消費者使用行動電話的角度，利用「開放型營運模式」去切入市場。這與傳統行動電話營運商，採完全「封閉型營運模式」有顯著的不同。到底「開放型營運模式」與「封閉型營運模式」最後誰會勝出呢？ 5. 數據產品的營運模式與傳統以語音為主的營運模式不同，語音產品受「價格調制」的影響很大，而價格的調制是完全掌控在行動電話營運商手中的；但是，數據產品的使用量必須經過「學習」、「認知」、「確認」及「喜好」等過程才能逐漸增加它的使用量，而這些過程中的因素變動並非完全掌控於行動電話營運商手中，因為行動電話營運商在數據產品市場中扮演的角色是「中介者」撮合的角色。本研究發現數據產品的初期投資較高，但是同質性高，容易在上述過程中被市場淘汰，但是一旦其中有一項產品能成功的在競爭的市場裡存活下來，其他同質產品的失敗都會因為這項成功的產品而能於短期內回收回來。所以數據產品必須要採「多路徑投入」方式之營運模式。 成功的數據產品，其營運模式所營造出來的利潤，都是在所謂的「長尾期」。正如同「i-mode」的母親：松永真理小姐所說的：「追求wants而非追求needs」，「我們想做一個連自己母親都能夠輕易操作的服務」等等，這些原則或信念，看似無甚高論，但卻是市場、行銷、消費的原理。而松永真理之於「i-mode」的可貴之處正在於，她去除了高科技產業的「不可親」性格，她把高科技產品拉回到人性面、市場面來處理。她看到了連結於高科技產品與市場間的「niche」。 最後歸根結底，一個數據產品的「營運模式」被成功的碩造出來，其實是來自於「不懂科技」、來自於「原創性」、來自於「生活化」、來自於「人性」、「自然」及「生活中不斷的那種來自於心靈深處的創新思維」。 / From wireless voice communications growing popularity, as well as declining voice ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) of the trends, all of the operations of telecommunications operators have begun to study how to promote the income data (Data Revenue), as well as the so-called value-added services to profit, in order to widely by income and operating profit improved. So how to create a correct 『Profitable Business Model』 as the world's telecom operators all actions focus of most concern. Taiwan in the operation of telecommunications data services, as well as value-added services, in fact, the development of very early, there have been two very large and very painful experience of failures. One was in 2000 and the KG Telecom Co., Ltd. had introduced Japan NTT DoCoMo i-mode failure of the painful experience; another in 2003 Asia Pacific Broadband Wireless Co., Ltd. has experienced through the introduction of SK Telecom of South Korea SKVM data services platform technology transfer failures. The two cases are just for personal involved, so was particularly impressed to review with a lot of reasons for the failure of course, but how to correct for the establishment of a right 『Business Model』to fit Taiwan's subjective and objective environment is a very worth exploring problems. Mobile Handset has been the mobile phone industry's hottest topics, from the previous so-called 『Big Brother』AMPS analog phone era into today's third generation mobile communications (3G) so-called 『Smart Phone』3G era. Mobile phones should be considered following the PC computer has been the fastest growing of civilized human life the most influential one of the products. PC is sitting side-use tools, and mobile phones are necessarily carried it every day, with around an integral part of you. Some people did not go a day may be able to use computers, but many people every day if there is no Mobile phone in the side, it would be a very serious matter. Mobile phone development soon, but also more like to do more one can carry away 『a think, smart-tank pack』. Not only do all individuals of the surrounding services, especially the so-called audio-visual and multimedia 『download function (some call it: 『Multimedia Mobile phone』，Internet surrounding、the Internet and network service functions, and even the so-called 『People to Machine』, 『Machine to People』, as well as 『Machine to Machine』 『next great imagination, such as some of the features of space and development. All designed 『Business Model』 must first go through a cell phone in front of consumers, telecom operators have also done a lot of verification experiment (Initial Service Launch) after the formal go to the market to go. And then from the consumer's satisfaction indicators (KPI) where these have been established to confirm the 『Business Model』 is correct. In this paper, is standing on is a mobile telecommunication Mobile Operators position, from 『Smart phone』 development perspective to explore how the future should be the correct 『Business Model』 of the establishment. The main discussion points from a number of successful operations abroad carrier's 『Business Model』 make an entry point, and then explore some of Taiwan's third-generation mobile communication; so-called 『Value-added Services』(Data Services) has been developed with not that much successful by now the reasons; additional from 『Smart phone』and 『Mobile Internet』 perspective to explore a number of recommendations to serve as the correct Business Model of the establishment basis. This study focused on the mobile phone which traditionally has been to 『Voice』 as the main profit "Business Model", after "third-generation mobile communications" from the "build phase" to "the service and operational period" become increasingly dynamic and competitive markets situation, mobile phone operators from a completely "leading role" gradually transformed into an "intermediary role", And its "business model" option of course, because each carrier's "financial and material resources"; and "available resources" be different, but in the "strategy" and "operating mode" setting also has considerable big science, and sometimes they look (outside) the success of, and copying other people's "critical success factors" and will not "necessarily successful". Is important to be in the "different competitive environment" and "difficult competitive situation in the sinister", to be able to "see other people do not see the market" business opportunities, to be able to "grasp the turning point of each point in time "and then" effective concentration of the resources go to vote, "the victory of success for granted. The main conclusions of this study include: 1. Third-generation mobile data services and value-added application services business model and traditional voice telecommunications services to voice-based mode of operation have clearly different points, not to the existing mode of operation to run data services and value-added application services firms. However, adopting the "second doctrine" (that is, the so-called "follow the doctrine") in the third generation mobile communications market and competitive environment is feasible strategies. (In this case study - Japan's KDDI and the Asia-Pacific Broadband Wireless operations shall Example) 2. The traditional "voice"-based "business model" and "data services and value-added application services," mainly "business model" point of difference to a voice-based mode of operation lies in its main voice services 『 tariff price 』(Rate price) make modulation, will be on the market and competitors influence and ownership of these modulators can be completely controlled in the control of operators. Data and data value-added application services business model for telecom operators must take a back seat in the "intermediary" role to bring together the various value chain "suppliers" are one up, to create "the highest customer value," and From these match the process of due share of profits. (In this case study - Japan's NTT DoCoMo i-mode shall Example) 3. This case study is based on the domestic mobile phone, a perfectly competitive market, with a backward person (in this case study the company - the Asia-Pacific Broadband Wireless), began to enter the market, after careful observation in the dynamics of competitors finally found a "competition who neglected market space "; and" did not find a competitor's market space, "and then" cheaper products "into the market, finally winning in the market. 4. Apple following the iPOD and iTunes success, to a Music Download world, completely in order to provide the consumer point of view Content Services. In addition, Google also provides consumers with a full-service Internet point of view, both into the "smart phone" market, and even "the whole mobile phone market", indeed to the entire mobile phone market unparalleled shock. The study found that iPhone, or, Google Phone, or are using a mobile phone from a consumer point of view, by using the "open mode of operation" to cut into the market. This is the traditional mobile phone operators, mining completely "closed mode of operation" has significantly different. In the end "open business model" and the "closed mode of operation," Who will win the final then? 5. Data products mode of operation with traditional voice-based mode of operation is different from voice products are "price modulation" a great impact, while the price is in complete control of the modulation in the hands of mobile phone operators; However, the use of data products must go through "learning," "cognitive," "confirmed" and "preferences" and other process to be a gradual increase in its usage, and these factors in the process of change is not complete control over the mobile phone operators hands, because mobile phone operators in the data market's role as "intermediary" role comes together. The study found data products a higher initial investment, but the homogeneity of the high, easy to in the above-mentioned process were eliminated, but once one has a product can be successful in a competitive market survived the failure of other homogeneous products because it will of successful products that can come back in a short period of recovery. Therefore, data mining product must be "multi-path input" mode of the mode of operation. The success of data products, and its profits created out from business model are in the so-called "long tail period." As "i-mode" mother: Miss Matsunaga Mari said: "the pursuit of wants rather than the pursuit of needs", "A Service we want to do, even their own mothers can easily operate the service," and so on, These principles or beliefs, seemingly high theory, but it is the market, marketing, consumption principle. Matsunaga Mari in the "i-mode" is a valuable point to, apart from her to go high-tech industries "not nice" character, her high-tech products back to human face, face to deal with the market. She saw the link in the high-tech products with the market between "niche". Finally, after all, a data product "business model" has been successful created made out, in fact, come from "do not understand technology" from the "original" from the "life" and from "human", "natural "and" the kind of life continued from the soul of innovative thinking. "

由於人口轉型的影響，導致從高出生率、高死亡率，變成高出生率、低死亡率，進而變至低出生率、低死亡率的結果，預計世界各國將都面臨人口老化的危機，老年人在比例以及數量上都較以往增加，造成傳統日額型或定額型給付無法滿足長期看護的需求，加上社會大眾對於保險的需求與認知的加強，較複雜的保險商品孕育而生。 由於保險商品的多樣化，傳統的精算方法面對考驗，為同時考量利率的波動風險，本研究以隨機過程中的馬可夫鏈理論應用於保險商品的定價、盈餘計算及利潤分析。主要討論下列研究議題：長期看護保單之需求及現況; 不同類型的長期看護保單之計價分析; 利用Visual Basic程式設計長期看護評價系統。 由於長期看護保險的開發不長，因此在相關的統計數據不足。本研究對於長期看護保險看護發生的移轉力，皆參考國外失能保險的經驗加以修正以計算費率，採用隨機過程中馬可夫鏈的觀念，依據被保險人的健康狀態，並根據不同的狀態給予不同比例的看護年金金額，於不同的保險契約型態下探討四種類型的長期看護保險。 第一章 緒論………………………………………………...1 第一節 研究動機與研究目的…………………………………………………1 第二節 研究方法………………………………………………………………3 第三節 研究架構及研究內容…………………………………………………4 第二章 長期看護的需求與供給…………………………...7 第一節 人口學上的發展………………………………………………………7 第二節 醫療及公共衛生改善等因素的影響………………………………..16 第三節 社會學因素的影響…………………………………………………..19 第四節 各國長期看護保險概況……………………………………………..25 第三章 長期看護保險保單……………………………….32 第一節 看護需求的衡量----日常活動量表的探討………………………….32 第二節 長期看護保險的保單條款…………………………………………..43 第三節 各國長期看護保險的保障內容比較………………………………..47 第四章 長期看護保險的精算分析……………………….55 第一節 多階段保險型態的簡介……………………………………………..56 第二節 多階段模型的精算函數……………………………………………..66 第三節 資產額份……………………………………………………………..76 第四節 資產額份的精算分析………………………………………………..78 第五章 模擬分析…………………………………………89 第一節 長期看護綜合系統…………………………………………………..89 第二節 長期看護保險保費計算之模擬……………………………………..90 第三節 長期看護保險資產額份之模擬……………………………………106 第六章 結論與建議……………………………………...114 第一節 結論…………………………………………………………………114 第二節 建議…………………………………………………………………115 參考文獻………………………………………………….117 表目錄 表2-1-1 OECD 會員國人口統計概況表………………………………………… 表2-1-2 65歲以上人口占率與人口高齡化速度的國際比較.……………… 10 表2-1-3 臺灣地區1950年至2035年人口自然成長、三階段人口數及依賴 比……………………………………………………………………… 11 表2-1-4 各國依賴人口比例之比較…………………………………………… 16 表2-2-1 民國55年至85年十大死因死亡率………………………………… 17 表2-2-2 臺灣地區老年人口之患病情形……………………………………… 18 表2-3-1 民國六十五年至八十五年臺灣地區戶數及戶量的變化…………… 20 表2-3-2 民國六十五年至八十五年臺灣地區育齡婦女生育的子女數及胎次 別……………………………………………………………………… 21 表2-3-3 臺灣地區民國六十五年至八十五年總生育率之變化按妻之教育程 度分及大專與國中程度總生育率之比……………………………… 22 表2-3-4 臺灣地區民國五十五年至八十五年15歲以上人口與勞動力人數及 參與率按性別區分…………………………………………………… 23 表3-1-1 機能損失指標內容之比較…………………………………………… 34 表3-1-2 機能損失指標品質之比較…………………………………………… 34 表5-2-1 長期看護年金主約----不同的投保年齡之給付現值與不同的繳費 方式之應繳保費……………………………………………………… 97 表5-2-2 長期看護加強型年金----不同投保年齡之躉繳保費……………… 99 表5-2-3 長期看護年金附約----不同的投保年齡之給付現值與不同的繳費 方式之應繳保費…………………………………………………… 102 表5-2-4 長期看護加強型退休金----不同的投保年齡之給付現值與不同的 繳費方式之應繳保費……………………………………………… 105 表5-3-1 二十年期長期看護加強型年金各保單年度狀態之間移轉機率表 ……………………………………………………………………….. 107 表5-3-2 二十年期長期看護加強型年金各保單年度各狀態的預估人數表 ……………………………………………………………………….. 108 表5-3-3 二十年期長期看護加強型年金資產額份分析表………………….. 111 圖目錄 圖1-3-1 研究架構及研究流程………………...……………………………..5 圖2-1-1 臺灣地區民國40年至125年人口變動率(中推計)………………12 圖2-1-2 臺灣地區民國40年至125年四種人口依賴比(中推計)…………13 圖2-1-3 臺灣地區民國40年至125年的三種人口老化指標 …………… 14 圖4-1-1 存活模型………………………………………………..………….57 圖4-1-2 疾病—死亡或失能模型……………………………..…………….58 圖4-1-3 連生年金模型………………………..…………………………….60 圖4-1-4 CCRC模型個別住戶狀態移轉狀態圖…………………..……….62 圖4-1-5 三個看護等級之長期看護保險個人狀態移轉圖………………...63 圖4-1-6 AIDS發病過程之狀態移轉圖………….………………………...65 圖5-2-1 三個看護等級之長期看護保險狀態及給付比例圖….………….91 圖5-2-2 二階段長期看護年金給付狀態圖……………….……………….97 圖5-2-3 三階段長期看護年金附約給付狀態圖……………….………...100 圖5-2-4 二階段長期看護加強型退休金給付狀態圖…………….………103 圖5-2-5 長期看護加強型退休金給付情況圖…………………….…...….104 / The goal of this study is to investigate the pricing and valuation for the long-term care insurance policies. Three major stages in achieving our objectives are summa-rized as follows: 1. Review the trend of the long-term care insurance and recognize its development. 2. Apply the Markov chain framework and the asset shares methodology to multi-states insurance policies. 3. Construct a comprehensive valuation computer system for profit monitoring pur-pose. Different health statuses of the policyholders are characterized using a Markov chain framework over the contract period. Benefit payments are provided to the in-sured according to his health condition once he is eligible for compensation. Premi-ums for four types of long-term care policies are examined according to the given ac-tuarial assumptions. Since the long-term care policies are still under development, the corresponding experience is not completely known. Hence the experience of the Danish company’s disability insurance are employed in computing the force of transitions. The forces of transitions are then used to estimate the transition probabilities. Finally premiums and reserves can be calculated based on the specified policy. Profit monitoring is also performed through asset share methodology. A numerical illustration provides some interesting results obtained by using this approach.

根據美國Morgan Stanley公司的研究指出，以普及5,000萬名使用者為基準，廣播、電視和有線電視分別需時38年、13年和10年，而網際網路卻只用不到5年的時間，在北美就達到5,000萬名使用者規模。可見網際網路已經成為成長最快的媒體。另一方面，全球網站的數目增加速度更是驚人，由1993年6月的130個成長到1998年11月的約352萬個網站，可見網站的經營已經成為一種Business，且將蘊藏龐大的商機，因此企業在面對網站經營的新興產業生態該掌握何種關鍵資源，便成為本研究所欲探討的主題。 本研究希望藉由美國成功的網站經營業者公司之發展過程，分析出網站經營業者在不同階段的發展過程裡關鍵資源為何、其特性為何，以及如何取得這些關鍵資源。一方面，為企業管理理論注入新的生命與內涵；另一方面，可以為網際網路這個新興產業中的網站經營業者提供從創意到生產產品，到公司成長階段所需的各項關鍵資源之具體描述以及作法，引導網站經營業者在快速的環境變化中，迅速掌握關鍵資源，以在網站經營業者中搶得先機。 本研究根據網站經營業者最主要提供之服務項目或網站業者創立時之定位將網站經營業者區分為「網路內容匯集者」以及「網路內容提供者」兩種型態，並分析網站經營業者在公司發展的不同階段中，關鍵資源為何，以及各項關鍵資源之特性和取得方式。 經由個案研究以及專家訪談，本研究經過事後的歸納、整理以及推衍，本研究得出下列之重要發現： 1. 不論何種類型之網站，在整個網站經營的過程中，都需要人才、資金、市場以及互補性產業等關鍵資源。但由於網站類型不同，這些關鍵資源需要的量以及階段將有所不同。 2. 不論何種類型之網站經營業者，提供專業、品質高、成本低、時效快的互補性產業，皆為公司發展之重要關鍵因素。 3. 不論何種類型之網站經營業者，市場的大小直接影響外界資源投入的意願以及該產業的成長速度。 4. 由於國家和文化的差異，將影響網站經營業者取得關鍵資源之方式。 5. 網站經營業者公司之發展階段與一般產業有所不同，網站經營業者早期進入障礙極低；另外，發展過程有一段non-profit之階段。 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的與問題 2 第三節 研究章節大要 3 第二章 文獻探討 7 第一節 網際網路網站的分類 7 第二節 公司發展階段之分類 13 第三節 公司發展階段之關鍵資源 28 第三章 網際網路簡介 55 第一節 網際網路發展史簡介 55 第二節 全球網際網路發展現況 59 一、網路發展指標介紹及定義 59 二、全球網際網路發展 62 第三節 我國網際網路發展現況 70 一、我國網際網路資訊內容發展 70 二、國內網際網路大事紀 71 第四節 網路產業發展概況 75 一、網路產業成員 75 二、網路業者演化過程 76 三、網路業者之收益來源 78 四、網路產業發展概況 78 第四章 研究方法 93 第一節 研究架構與研究變項 93 一、研究架構 93 二、研究變項 94 第二節 研究方法 96 第三節 研究個案選取與資料收集 96 第五章 個案分析 103 第一節 CNET（CNWK） 103 第二節 中時電子報 131 第三節 雅虎（YAHOO！） 152 第四節 蕃薯藤數位科技股份有限公司 180 第五節 個案分析 203 第六章 命題發展 209 第一節 網站經營業者起始階段之關鍵資源 209 第二節 網站經營業者成長階段之關鍵資源 220 第七章 結論與建議 229 第一節 命題之匯總 229 第二節 研究發現與建議 231 第三節 研究限制與後續研究建議 235 第八章 參考文獻 237 一、中文部分 237 二、英文部分 240 / Abstract A research conducted by Morgan Stanley has pointed out that it took less than five years for internet to attract more than 50 millions users. For the same user scale, it was 38 years for broadcasting, 13 years for television, and 10 years for cable television. Without no doubt, internet has been the fastest growing media in this century. In the meantime, the amount of website increased even more dramatically in the last several years. The amount of web was 130 in June 1993, and was 3.52 millions in November 1998. The start-up of website has become a new business model, and could be foresee to have a great potential in the future. The focus of this research is to examine what is key resources in managing website business in such a new industrial environment. By examining the cases of successful website companies’ development process, this research analyzes what are the key resources in different development phases, what are their characteristics, and how to attain those key resources. On the one hand, this research wish it could bring some contributions to management theory in the understanding of internet industries, on the other hand, it intends to offer some insights about the key resources in different development phases for internet business manager. Based on the industrial environment and research described above, the research topics are as follow: 1. What are the key resources of the development of the website companies in different phases? 2. What are the characteristic of these key resources? 3. How do these website companies acquire the key resources they need? According to the services the website companies have provided, and the positioning the websites were founded, this research distinguish the website companies into two categories: “internet content accumulator” and “internet content provider”. In this research two kind of websites’ key resources, their main characteristics, and ways of acquirement have been examined separately. By conducting case studies and interviews, the research found that out of the differences in business models and the contents they provide, different kind of websites require different key resources in their development process. In addition, key resources in different development phases are diverse as well. The hypotheses of the research are as follow: Hypothesis 1: In the commencing phase of website company, key human capitals the content providers (in this research, they are originally traditional media companies.) require are more diversified than that of the content accumulator. Hypothesis 1-1: In the commencing phase of website company, the key resources in human capitals the content providers require are network technology, content production, and relevant management skills. Hypothesis 1-2: In the commencing phase of website company, the key resource in human capital the content providers require is network technology. Hypothesis 2: In the commencing phase of website company, the capital investment the content providers require is higher than the content accumulator. Hypothesis 2-1: In the commencing phase of website company, the investment of venture capital which is defined as one of the complementary industries of internet industry is one of the most decisive resources for content providers. Hypothesis 2-2: In the commencing phase of website company, the capital investment is not crucial for the portal websites of content accumulator. Hypothesis 3: In the commencing phase of website company, the decisive reason for the website company to devote the market is the scale of potential market, rather than that of existing market. Hypothesis 4: In the commencing phase of website company, the maturity of complementary industries is the key resource for the success of both two kinds of website companies. Hypothesis 5: In the commencing phase of website company, the investment of venture capital which is defined as one of the complementary industries of internet industry is one of the most decisive resources for content providers. Hypothesis 6: For both kinds of website companies, the young and dynamic-oriented CEO with technological and managerial background is the key resource in the grow phase of development. Hypothesis 7: For both kinds of website companies, the ability/opportunity to acquire capital in public capital market is one of the key resources in the grow phase of development. Hypothesis 8: In the grow phase of website companies, the investment of venture capital which is defined as one of the complementary industries of internet industry is one of the most decisive resources for content accumulator, Hypothesis 9: For both kinds of website companies, the scale of existing market is the significant factor for the speedy development of website company in the grow phase of development. Hypothesis 10: For both kinds of website companies, the maturity of complementary industries is the decisive factor for the speedy development of website company in the grow phase of development. Hypothesis 10-1: For both kinds of website companies, the maturity of advertising agency which is defined as one of the complementary industries of internet industry is the key resource for the speedy development of website company in the grow phase of development. Hypothesis 10-2: For both kinds of website companies, the maturity of content, product, or service providers which are defined as the complementary industries of internet industry is the decisive factor for the speedy development of website company in the grow phase of development. Hypothesis 10-3: For both kinds of website companies, the maturity of public capital market which is defined as one of the complementary industries of internet industry is the decisive factor for the speedy development of website company in the grow phase of development. Hypothesis 10-4: In the grow phase of website companies, the investment of venture capital which is defined as one of the complementary industries of internet industry is one of the most decisive resources for content accumulator. After detailed discussions in the research, we have come to some conclusions: 1. For all kind of websites, the key resources for the start-up and development include human resource, capital investment, market, and complementary industry. But the timing and the ways and amount of using those resources are diverse. 2. For all kind of website companies, the complementary industries which are able to offer professional, high-quality, low-cost, and time-effective products or services are the decisive factors for the start-up and development of website companies. 3. For all kind of website companies, the scale of the market directly affects the incentive for external resource devotion and the speed of the industry’s grow. 4. The website companies’ ways of resources acquirement are varied between national and cultural boundary. The entrant barrier of website industry is much lower than other industries. In addition, there is a non-profit phase in the development of website industry.

Paivio的雙碼理論(Dual Coding Theory)認為, 語文與視覺處理歷程為互助相輔.但是, Schooler and Englster-Schooler(1990)卻提出 "語文遮蔽效果(verbalovershadowing effect, VOE)", 認為視決刺激在提取階段, 可能因語文訊息的存在,而產生干擾的現象. 這種遮蔽作用, Brandimonte, Hitch, and Bishop(1992a,b)發現同時出現在記憶與登錄階段. Marks(1991)更發現它會隨視覺訊息的屬性差異 - 資料趨勢(data-driven)與概念趨勢(conceptual-driven), 而有不同的影響結果. 資料趨勢的視覺刺激訊息, 傾向於處理物理性的視覺特姓, 故不會因為個體採取語文處理的模式, 而出縣語文遮蔽效果, 干擾記憶與辨市的表現. 相反的, 概念趨勢的視覺訊息,則傾向於處理刺激本質的屬性, 與語文訊息有所關連, 連帶在個體採取語文處理模式 時, 便會因語文遮蔽效果而干擾表現。 本研究主要探討不同視覺刺基屬性於登錄階段與語文處理歷程之間的交互作用關係. 實驗一藉由操弄 "登錄型式(語文描述, 口語抑制, 控制組)" 與 "視覺訊息類別(資料趨勢訊息, 概念趨勢訊息)" 的方式, 檢驗此二獨變項之間的交互作用, 亦即檢驗 "登錄階段將出現VOE" 與 "資料趨勢與概念趨勢訊息的VOE將有所差別" 的假設.實驗結果利用杜恩氏多重比較法證實研究者所提之假設: 不同視決刺激屬性於登錄階段的VOE有所差異 - 資料趨勢訊息於登錄階段並不會出現VOE, 概念趨勢訊息於登錄階段則會出現VOE。 實驗二則主要探討不同視覺刺激屬性於登錄階段出現VOE的導因. 借助Lindsay and Johnson(1989)所提出的 "資源混淆(source confusion)", 與Fallshore and Schooler(1995)所提出的 "特徵轉換(characteristics shift)" 作為理論根據, 研究者同時操弄 "登錄訊息屬性", "語文登錄形式", 與 "有無忽略提示" 三個獨變項, 並檢驗此三獨變項之間的交互作用, 亦即檢驗 "資料趨勢訊息不會出現VOE" 與 "概念趨勢訊息於語文登錄成功前, 會因為資源混淆而出現VOE; 語文登錄成功之後, 則會因特徵轉換而出現VOE" 的假設. 研究結果同樣利用杜恩氏多重比較法進行檢驗, 亦獲支持: 視覺刺激的資料趨勢訊息, 即使以語文描述方式進行視覺刺激登錄, 仍舊不會出現VOE. 而概念趨勢訊息若以親自描述的方式進行語文登錄,則因語文登錄完成, 造成個體處理模式的特徵轉換, 因而不論是否給予忽略提示, 都將因VOE而抑制辨識表現; 若以閱讀他人描述的方式進行語文登錄, 則由於登錄尚未完成, 個體因語文與視覺訊息的提取資源混淆, 故可利用忽略提示的方式, 讓個體區辨視覺與語文訊息的差異, 進而避免VOE的干擾作用。