Bakgrund: År 2020 infördes ett nytt kompetenskrav i SwedSec om ekonomisk psykologi och finansiella rådgivare. Det har under de senaste åren varit stora ekonomiska oroligheter där konsekvenserna av Coronapandemin och det pågående kriget i Ukraina i kombination med andra faktorer har resulterat i rekordhöga inflationsnivåer, vilket i sin tur har resulterat i höjningar av styrräntan. Vid ekonomiskt oroliga tider är det en större risk att personer faller offer för psykologiska fallgropar eller påverkas av psykologiska faktorer. Således är det relevant att skapa förståelse om hur rådgivare påverkas och hanterar psykologiska fallgropar i rådgivningsprocessen. Syfte: Syftet med denna studie har varit att undersöka finansiella rådgivares råd och rekommendationer till kunder under de ekonomiska omständigheterna under första halvåret 2023. Författarna har analyserat hur rådgivare har anpassat sig till de nya kunskapskraven inom ekonomisk psykologi som införts i SwedSecs rådgivningslicens 2020, och utforskat i vilken utsträckning rådgivare uppger att de influeras av psykologiska bias i deras beslutsprocesser. Slutligen har studien syftat till att identifiera metoder som rådgivare använder för att undvika dessa fallgropar och förbättra kvaliteten på deras rådgivning. Metod: En kvalitativ metod har använts i form av nio semistrukturerade intervjuer med finansiella rådgivare. Studien har en abduktiv ansats och axial kodning användes för att analysera de transkriberade intervjuerna. Slutsats: Majoriteten av rådgivarna har låga eller obefintliga kunskaper kring ekonomisk psykologi och de har inte heller vidtagit några åtgärder för att försöka uppfylla SwedSecs kompetenskrav, några rådgivare kommer inte heller ihåg att kompetenskravet infördes. Trots detta är risken liten för att de skall påverkas av psykologiska bias på grund av de använder sig av ett standardiserat rådgivningsverktyg. Studiens resultat pekar således på att rådgivare inte behöver ytterligare kompetenshöjande utbildningar för att motverka psykologiska fallgropar vid rådgivning till kunder, så länge som de använder sig av det rådgivningsverktyget som finns på det finansiella institut som de arbetar på. / Background: In 2020, a new competence requirement was introduced in SwedSec on economic psychology and financial advisors. The past years have seen major economic turmoil where the consequences of the Corona pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine combined with other factors have resulted in record high inflation levels, which in turn has resulted in increased benchmark interest rates. In times of economic uncertainty, people are more likely to be influenced by psychological biases and psychological factors. Thus, it is relevant to understand how advisors are affected by and deal with psychological bias in the financial advisory process. Purpose: The purpose of this study has been to examine financial advisors advice and recommendations to clients during the economic circumstances of the first half of 2023. The authors have analyzed how advisors have adapted to the new knowledge requirements about economic psychology introduced in SwedSec's advisory license 2020 and explored the extent to which financial advisors state being influenced by psychological biases in their decision-making processes. Finally, the study aims to identify methods that advisors use to avoid these biases and improve the quality of their recommendations. Methodology: A qualitative method has been used in the form of nine semi-structured interviews with financial advisors. The study has an abductive approach and axial coding was used to analyze the transcribed interviews. Conclusion: Most of the advisors have little, or no knowledge regarding economic psychology and have not taken any measures to try to meet SwedSec's competence requirements, some advisors do not even remember that the competence requirement was implemented. Despite this, the risk of being influenced by psychological bias is small because they use a standardized advisory tool. The results of the study thus indicate that advisors do not need additional competence-enhancing training to counteract psychological pitfalls when advising customers, assuming they use the advisory tool available at the financial institution where they work

Det senaste decenniet har användandet av sociala medier exploderat och blivit en plattformdär information och tips om aktier och investeringar delas ut. Unga personer är de störstaanvändarna av sociala medier, och tidigare studier visar att denna åldersgrupp uppvisar ettmer riskfyllt beteende på aktiemarknaden. Syftet med denna studie var således att undersökahuruvida det finns ett samband mellan aktivitet på sociala medier och riskbenägenhet. Vidareundersöktes om tre variabler - överdrivet självförtroende, ångeraversion och kognitivdissonans - hade en medierande effekt i sambandet mellan aktivitet på sociala medier ochriskbenägenhet. En kvantitativ metod med en enkätstudie användes för studiensdatainsamling. Statistiska mått, däribland regressionsanalys och medieringsanalys, användesför att besvara forskningsfrågan. Resultaten visade att sociala medier har en statistisktsignifikant effekt på riskbenägenhet på aktiemarknaden, och att överdrivet självförtroende haren statistiskt signifikant medierande effekt på relationen. Det fanns inga belägg ellerindikationer på att kognitiv dissonans och ångeraversion har en medierande effekt.Sammanfattningsvis visade studien att aktivitet på sociala medier i investeringssyfte kanbidra till ökad riskbenägenhet, och att överdrivet självförtroende har en viktig roll sommedierande variabel i förhållandet. / The last decade, the use of social media has escalated and become a platform whereinformation and tips about stocks and investments are shared. Young individuals aregenerally the most frequent users of social media, and studies also show that the same agegroup displays a more risk-prone behavior in financial markets. Therefore, the purpose of thisstudy was to examine the potential effect of social media activity on risk propensity on thestock market. Furthermore, the study investigated whether the three variables -overconfidence, regret aversion, and cognitive dissonance - could be classified as a mediatingvariable between social media activity and risk propensity. The study was conducted using aquantitative method, employing a survey, where 130 people responded. Statistical measuressuch as regression analysis and mediation analysis were used to answer the research question.The results showed that social media has a statistically significant effect on risk propensity onthe stock market, and that overconfidence has a statistically significant mediating effect onthe relationship. There was no evidence or indication that cognitive dissonance or regretaversion has a mediating effect. In summary, the study demonstrated that use of social mediain investment purposes can increase risk willingness, and that overconfidence plays animportant role as a mediating variable in this relationship.

Titel: Prissättningen av IPOer  Författare: Cornelia Virsén och Izabel Wästlund  Handledare: Katarina Eriksson  Bakgrund och problemformulering: Prissättningen av IPOer är idag ett välstuderat forskningsområde. Tidigare forskning visar på att IPOer i olika delar av världen är underprissatta. Vilka variabler som driver prissättningen och aktiekursutvecklingen under första handelsdagen skiljer sig dock åt mellan olika forskare och än råder inte konsensus mellan tidigare forskning. I slutet av 2019 bröt Covid-19-pandemin ut, vilken föranledde samhälleliga restriktioner och en markant förändring i samhällsaktiviteten som fick en påverkan på den svenska ekonomin. Sedan april 2022 klassas Covid-19 inte längre som en pandemi vilket öppnar för möjligheten att studera huruvida det går att urskilja olikheter i förklarande variabler vid prissättning av IPOer innan, under och efter Covid-19.   Syfte: Syftet med studien är att analysera huruvida IPOer genomförda på den svenska marknaden är underprissatta. Därtill ämnar studien till att analysera likheter och skillnader i de utvalda variablernas påverkan på prissättningar av IPOer på den svenska börsen före, under och efter Covid-19.   Metod: Studien följde en kvantitativ forskningsstrategi med en deduktiv ansats. Studien tillämpade t-tester för att analysera huruvida IPOer genomförda på den svenska marknaden är underprissatta. Vidare genomfördes enkla linjärregressioner samt multipla linjärregressioner för att analysera utvalda variablers påverkan på IPOers prissättning. Urvalet uppgick till 224 IPOer vars aktiekursutveckling studerades dess första handelsdag.   Slutsats: Studiens genomförda t-tester för perioderna före Covid-19, Covid-19 och efter Covid-19 visade samtliga på icke-signifikanta resultat. De enkla linjärregressioner samt multipla linjärregressionerna visade enbart på tre signifikanta variabler under samtliga perioder som statistiskt kan sägas förklara prissättningen. Resultatet visade på att småbolagseffekten, ex-ante osäkerheter och signalering var tre teorier, vilka kan sägas förklara en IPOs prissättning. Marknadsförhållanden under studiens tidsperiod indikerade att marknaden befann sig i en cold issue market, vilket skulle kunna vara den förklarande orsaken till studiens resultat.    Nyckelord: IPO, underprissättning, beteendefinans, asymmetrisk information, hot/cold issue market, Covid-19 / Title: The Pricing of IPOs  Authors: Cornelia Virsén and Izabel Wästlund  Supervisor: Katarina Eriksson   Background and problem statement: Pricing of IPOs is currently a well-studied research area. Previous research indicates that IPOs in different parts of the world are underpriced. However, the variables driving pricing and stock price performance during the first trading day differ among researchers, and there is still no consensus in previous research. In late 2019, the Covid-19 pandemic broke out, leading to societal restrictions and a significant change in societal activity that impacted the Swedish economy. Since April 2022, Covid-19 is no longer classified as a pandemic, which opens up the opportunity to examine whether there are differences in explanatory variables in the pricing of IPOs before, during, and after Covid-19.   Purpose: The aim of this study is to analyze whether IPOs conducted in the Swedish market are underpriced. Additionally, the study intends to examine similarities and differences in the impact of selected variables on the pricing of IPOs on the Swedish stock exchange before, during and after Covid-19.   Method: The study followed a quantitative research strategy with a deductive approach. T-tests were employed to analyze whether IPOs conducted in the Swedish market are underpriced. Furthermore, simple linear regressions and multiple linear regressions were conducted to examine the impact of selected variables on the pricing of IPOs. The sample consisted of 224 IPOs which stock performance was studied on their first trading day.   Conclusion: The conducted t-tests in the study for the periods before Covid-19, Covid-19, and after Covid-19 all yielded non-significant results. The simple linear regressions and multiple linear regressions only revealed three significant variables across all periods that can be statistically considered as explanatory factors for pricing. This result demonstrated that the small firm effect, ex-ante uncertainties, and signaling were three theories that could explain the pricing of an IPO. The market conditions during the study period indicated that the market was in a cold issue market, which could potentially be the explanatory factor behind the study's findings.   Keywords: IPO, underpricing, behavioral finance, asymmetric information, hot/cold issue market, Covid-19.

Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att identifiera vad som påverkar privatpersoners risktolerans och vilka informationskällor som används i samband med aktieinvesteringar. Studien ska även undersöka vilken syn privatpersoner har på ägarstruktur i börsnoterade bolag och huruvida ägarstrukturen påverkar investeringsbeslutet. Utifrån detta vill författarna skapa teoretisk och empirisk kunskap. Metod: Studien genomfördes med hjälp av flermetodsforskning. Detta skedde genom att både kvalitativ och kvantitativ metod användes för att samla in empiri. Den kvalitativa metoden användes för att samla in empiri genom semistrukturerade intervjuer med analytiker, privatrådgivare och aktiemäklare. Den kvantitativa metoden användes för att samla in empiri, detta gjordes med hjälp av en enkätstudie med slutna frågor som besvarades av privatpersoner som har intresse för aktiehandel. Författarna valde att göra en flermetodsforskning då en kombination ibland föreslås med anledning av att metoderna kan fungera som stöd eller komplement till varandra. Även slutsatserna kan få stöd genom att metodernas svagheter och styrkor kan komplettera varandra (Jacobsen, 2002). Uppsatsens undersökningsdesign var fallstudie och författarnas valda fall var privatpersoners aktieinvesteringar. Slutsats: Författarna av denna studie har kommit fram till att ålder och kön är två variabler som påverkar privatpersoners risktolerans. Resultatet visar att män tar mer risker än kvinnor i samband med aktiehandel och med åldern ökar riskbenägenheten. Detta överensstämmer med tidigare forskares resultat. Resultatet tyder på att aktieforum är den informationskälla som används i högst grad bland privatpersoner medan privatrådgivare var det alternativ som fick lägst antal svar. Resultaten tyder även på att de flesta personer som deltagit i denna studie beaktar ägarstrukturen när de står inför ett investeringsbeslut. Författarna kan dra slutsatsen att ägarstrukturen till viss del påverkar hur privatpersoner tar sina beslut. Liknande resultat framkom gällande om ett företag är familjeägt. Resultaten visar också att en stor del privatpersoner ser positivt på koncentrerat ägande. De tre ord som flest privatpersoner kännetecknar med familjeföretag är engagerade, hårt arbetande och ansvarfulla. Resultatet av studien visade även att majoriteten av respondenterna ansåg att familjeföretag varken är bättre eller sämre än icke familjeägda bolag. / Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to identify factors influencing individual risk attitude as well as evaluating data collection methods utilized by individuals in connection with stock investments. Additionally, this study examines individual perception of differences in ownership structure in Swedish listed companies and its impact on the investment decision. Method: In this study both qualitative and quantitative methods are utilized. The qualitative data was collected by performing semi-structured interviews with analysts, advisors and stock brokers. Quantitative data was collected using a closed question survey answered by individual investors. The reason for the use of a multi-method experimental design is based on the fact that the two different methods can serve as support separately, as well as complementation to each other. Although the findings can be supported by the methods' weaknesses and strengths and complement each other (Jacobsen, 2002). The study is based on a case study with focus on individuals sharing investments. Conclusion: This study concludes age and gender to be two variables affecting how likely individuals are to take risks in relation to investment decisions. Empirical result implies that men takes more risks than women when trading stocks. Additionally, the inclination for risk increases with age. These findings are also supported by previous studies. The results indicate that financial internet forums are the most frequently used method among individuals to collect financial information. Financial advisors were on the other hand the least used source of information. The majority of participants in this study takes the ownership structure of a company into account when facing an investment decision. The authors concluded that ownership partially influences how individuals make their decisions. The results also shown that a large portion of individuals welcomes a concentrated ownership structure, i.e. family business. Three words that most individuals characterizes the family business with are dedicated, hardworking and responsible. The results of the study also revealed that the majority of respondents felt that the family business is neither better nor worse than non-family businesses.

Companies spend trillions of dollars on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) every year, and tens of thousands of new M&A deals are announced every year. However, despite the huge costs, only 10% to 30% of the M&As announced, get finalized (Christensen et al., 2011).There is extensive research conducted on why M&As fail, and their implications for the companies involved in the transaction. However, these large deals do not only impact the firms directly involved in the deal.  Microsoft, one of the world’s most influential companies, made on the 18th of January 2022 an acquisition announcement regarding its intent to acquire Activation Blizzard, one of the world’s largest game studios. The announcement made headlines all over the world and resulted in protests from competitors of the two companies. One of these competitors, Sony, experienced a 13% drop in stock price due to the acquisition announcement.  This thesis investigates the effect of acquisition announcements on the stock return of competitors to the target company. The study is examining the competitors stock return during the month leading up to the announcement, as well as the stock return during the month following the announcement. The authors have taken inspiration from a previous study “Acquisitions: A curse or blessing for direct competitors? The impact of target ownership structure” conducted by Mataigne et al. (2021).  By reviewing over 700 market reactions to acquisition announcements over a 10-year period, the authors were able to statistically test the differences in mean stock return. The authors were able to conclude that acquisition announcements have a negative impact on the stock return of competitors, and thereby answer the proposed research question: “What is the effect of acquisitions announcements on the stock returns of target company’s competitors in Sweden?”. Competitors to the target firm of an acquisition will experience the most significant change in their stock returns in the time period close to the announcement, after which the reaction will stabilize. The empirical findings of the study contribute to the field of knowledge using Behavioral Finance, the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model, the Stakeholder Theory, the Mitchell Model, and various market valuation methods.  Evidently, theories as part of the Behavioral Finance scope, such as the Efficient Market Hypothesis, provide support to the findings following the acquisition announcement. Theories such as the Stakeholder Theory and the Mitchell Model have helped identify competitors' stakeholder role to show how various events and organizations affect them as stakeholders in the market.  This study, which utilizes over 60.000 datapoints from daily price data for its analysis, takes a deductive approach within the positivist paradigm framework. The data is statistically tested using paired t-tests.

Sociala medier har utvecklats till kraftfulla plattformar för informationsutbyte som många människor förlitar sig på för att hitta information för potentiella investeringar. Sociala medier är relativt okontrollerade och innehåller en stor del falsk information. Syftet med studien är att beskriva och analysera sambandet mellan information från sociala medier och privata investerares beslut på den finansiella marknaden och att analysera fem beteendeekonomiska fördomar, flockbeteende, överdriven självsäkerhet, förankring, rädslan att missa något och ekokammare, och analysera vilken roll de spelar i beslutsprocessen från sociala medier till investeringsbeslut. Den teoretiska referensramen och det empiriska underlaget utgår från det beteendeekonomiska paradigmet och studier om information från sociala medier och investeringsbeslut för att skapa en övergripande bild över sambandet mellan sociala medier och investeringsbeslut. En kvantitativ forskningsmetod tillämpades och data samlades in genom en enkätundersökning som distribuerades på sociala medier och via Mittuniversitetets egna kanaler. Sammantaget svarade 163 respondenter och efter att datauppsättningen rensades från felaktig och ofullständig data kvarstod 125 respondenter. Datan analyserades sedan i frekvenstabeller och regressions- och moderationsanalyser. Studiens resultat tyder på att investerare som i högre utsträckning förlitar sig på information från sociala medier som informationskälla tenderar att fatta mindre framgångsrika investeringsbeslut. Dessutom indikerar resultaten att detta negativa samband förstärks av förankring och rädslan att missa något. / Social media has evolved into powerful information sharing platforms that many people rely on to find information for potential investments. Social media is relatively uncontrolled and contains a large amount of false information. The purpose of the study is to describe and analyze the relationship between information from social media and private investors' decisions in the financial market and to analyze five behavioral economic biases, herd behavior, overconfidence, anchoring, the fear of missing out and echo chambers, and analyze the role they play in the decision-making process from social media to investment decisions. The theoretical frame of reference and the empirical basis are based on the behavioral economic paradigm and studies on information from social media and investment decisions to create an overall picture of the connection between social media and investment decisions. A quantitative research method was applied and data was collected through a survey that was distributed on social media and via Mid Sweden University's channels. Overall, 163 respondents responded and after the data set was cleaned of incorrect and incomplete data, 125 respondents remained. The data were then analyzed in frequency tables and regression and moderation analyses. The study's findings suggest that investors who rely more heavily on information from social media as a source of information tend to make less successful investment decisions. Furthermore, the results indicate that this negative relationship is reinforced by anchoring and the fear of missing out.

As the world faces unprecedented environmental challenges, there is an urgent need for largescale investments in green infrastructure and technologies. If we are going to achieve carbon neutrality, significant investments are necessary, and therefore must the entire financial system unite and endorse sustainable investment activities in a market-oriented manner.   A green bond is a relatively new type of bond. It was first introduced in 2007 by the European Investment Bank (EIB). This was followed up by a collaboration between Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB) and the World Bank, a group of Swedish investors, pension funds, and SRI-focused investors. They issued their first green bond in 2008 intending to attract more investors. However, this attempt to increase the interest did not work, green bonds were almost nonexistent until 2013. One explanation for the slow development of the green bond market was the financial crisis in 2008. Further, the reason for the low interest in green bonds during this period was that traditional investors deemed these risky and non-profitable.  Using a deductive approach, this thesis investigates how green bonds perform compared to conventional bonds and stocks from the issuing company. The authors sampled green and conventional bonds from 33 companies that matured from 2018 to 2023. The sample data set contains bonds from Asia, Europe, South America, North America, and Australia. The data was tested using multiple hypotheses.  This thesis sets out to answer the research question: How do green bonds perform compared to conventional bonds and stocks?   The results indicated there is a significant difference between the three asset types. First, the stocks yield higher returns and higher standard deviations than green and conventional bonds. Second, the authors found no evidence for a difference in return thus a significant difference in standard deviation. The results also suggest there is a difference in modified duration, convexity, maturity, and yield to maturity. These findings indicate that green bonds performed better than conventional bonds, especially regarding risk and volatility. Therefore, could green bonds be useful when diversifying a portfolio.  The findings suggested that a portfolio composition that combines the three assets could be in line with both shareholder theory and stakeholder theory. The portfolio theory also provides interesting insights into the potential portfolio optimizations since there are differences between green and conventional bonds. Since no difference in the return was found for green and conventional bonds the authors find no reason to support the idea of herding behavior in the trading of green bonds.  However, the difference in standard deviation is interesting from a behavioral perspective, a lower standard deviation indicates that the green bond experiences lower volatility compared to conventional bonds.

Betrügerisches Verhalten bei geschlossenen Fonds ist in Deutschland Statistiken zufolge für jährliche Kapitalverluste im mittleren dreistelligen Millionenbereich verantwortlich. Der Gesetzgeber hat sich in der Vergangenheit wiederholt dem Problem angenommen und eine Vielzahl von zivil-, straf- und öffentlich-rechtlichen Maßnahmen zur Verbesserung des Anlegerschutzes auf den Weg gebracht, die mit dem Inkrafttreten des Kapitalanlagegesetzbuchs (KAGB) im Jahr 2013 ihren bisherigen Höhepunkt erreicht haben. Die Zweckdienlichkeit dieser Maßnahmen wird von Kritikern indes bezweifelt, darüber hinaus scheint sich in jüngerer Zeit ein neuartiges Phänomen des „sanktionslosen Betrugs“ auf dem Kapitalmarkt zu etablieren, bei dem es den Tätern gelingt entweder ohne, oder ohne nennenswerte Sanktionen – insbesondere in strafrechtlicher Hinsicht – davonzukommen. Als Beispiele seien hier die Debi Select Fonds aus Landshut sowie die POC-Fonds aus Berlin genannt, bei denen die im Hintergrund agierenden „Strippenzieher“ trotz millionenschwerer Anlegerschädigung weder in zivil- noch in strafrechtlicher Hinsicht zur Rechenschaft gezogen werden konnten. Die vorliegende Arbeit widmet sich der systematischen Erkundung dieses Phänomens, indem sie die Themenkomplexe „(sanktionslose) betrügerische geschlossene Fonds“ und „Anlegerschutz“ aus ökonomischer und rechtlicher Perspektive theoretisch analysiert und hieraus Verbesserungsvorschläge ableitet, die anschließend durch eine explorativ-empirische Expertenbefragung abgesichert und ergänzt werden. Konkret beantwortet die Arbeit folgende zentrale Forschungsfrage: „Was ist betrügerisches Verhalten bei geschlossenen Fonds und warum ist dies zum Teil sanktionslos?“ sowie vier ergänzende Forschungsfragen: (1) „Wie sieht die Anatomie betrügerischer geschlossener Fonds aus?“ (2) „Was sind die Ursachen und Anreizstrukturen, die betrügerisches Verhalten bei geschlossenen Fonds begünstigen?“ (3) „Welche Maßnahmen eignen sich zur Abwehr bzw. zur Eindämmung des betrügerischen Verhaltens bei geschlossenen Fonds?“ (4) „Bieten die zivil-, straf- und öffentlich-rechtlichen Maßnahmen des Gesetzgebers, insbesondere das KAGB einen ausreichenden Schutz vor betrügerischen geschlossenen Fonds?“ / Fraudulent behavior in closed-end funds is, according to statistics, responsible for annual capital losses in the mid-triple-digit millions. Legislators have repeatedly addressed the problem in the past and initiated a large number of civil, criminal and public-law measures to improve investor protection, which reached their peak in 2013 with the entry into force of the so-called “Kapitalanlagegesetzbuch” (KAGB). The usefulness of these measures are doubted by critics, moreover it appears that a new phenomenon of 'unsanctioned fraud' on the capital market appears to be established recently, where the perpetrators succeed either without or without significant sanctions, especially in criminal matters. Examples include the Debi Select funds from Landshut and the POC funds from Berlin, in which the 'stripping pullers' operating in the background could be held accountable neither in civil nor in criminal law despite millions in damage to investors. The present work is devoted to the systematic investigation of this phenomenon by theoretically analyzing the topics '(non-sanctioned) fraudulent closed-end funds' and 'investor protection' from an economic and legal perspective and deriving recommendations for improvement, which are then confirmed and supplemented by an explorative-empirical expert survey become. Specifically, the paper answers the following central research question: 'What is fraudulent behavior in closed-end funds and why is this partially sanctionless?' And four complementary research questions: (1) 'What is the anatomy of fraudulent closed-end funds?' (2) 'What are the causes and incentive structures that favor fraudulent behavior in closed-end funds? (3)'What measures are appropriate for the prevention or the containment of fraudulent behavior in closed-end funds?' (4) 'Do civil, criminal and public legislative measures, in particular the KAGB, provide sufficient protection against fraudulent closed-end funds?'

為了針對實證股價與交易量的資訊，能否作為預測未來政治事件結果提供依據，此篇論文探究四個政治事件，分別是2014年台北市長選舉國民黨黨內初選、2014年台北市長選舉、2016年總統選舉國民黨更換候選人以及2016年總統選舉。作者使用異常交易量作為判斷投資人是否將政治事件視為投資機會，並觀察個股與投資組合之累積異常報酬率是否能作為預測依據，最後以事件後五日內的異常累積報酬判斷投資人是否在事前過度反應或是反應不足。 　　本研究發現，在政治事件發生前六十日內，大部分政治相關的個股交易量皆顯著異於前一年之交易量。與勝選相關的股票在事件前60日至31日有顯著的正累積異常報酬。相較之下，與敗選相關的股票中，僅有和候選人有緊密政治連結的股票有顯著負累積異常報酬，政策相關的股票並無顯著負累計異常報酬。最後，在現行交易制度下，正異常報酬伴隨著正異常交易量，而負異常報酬卻因放空限制等因素，無顯著正異常交易量。 / This paper analyzes the last four political events, which includes KMT's Taipei Mayoral Primary, Taipei Mayor Election, KMT Presidential Candidate Replacement and Taiwan Presidential Election. We use trading volume to detect whether investors join the market due to potential political investment opportunity. Then we examine the CAR tendency with the political event results to identify its forecast ability. Last, we detect CAR within 5 days later to find if investor overreact or underreact before the event day. We find that the CAR meets voters’ political anticipation before the event window. Investors believe they can time the market through these events and gain profit. Furthermore, stocks relevant to those elects experience positive CAR. In contrast, stocks relevant to those also-rans do not experience significant returns. The only fortuneteller is the company, which has close relationship to the defeated candidate, telling with negative CAR. Because of short-sale constrains, the trading volume are not larger than before even it is a good chance to gain profit in the political events.

本文主要在探討在何種情況下(意即金融危機發生前後)會發生比較顯著的跨國從眾現象。本文採用2003年10月1日到2009年2月28日期間的台灣加權指數、台灣50、美國S&P 500和道瓊工業指數報酬率資料，並利用Hwang and Salmon (2004)測量從眾行為指標的方法，檢驗在此段期間下，台灣投資人行為是否有明顯跟隨美國投資人行為的現象。實證研究發現整體而言在此段期間下，台灣存在顯著的跨國從眾行為。細部以月為單位探討從眾行為顯著結果的變化，可以歸納出以下三個結論：一、從眾行為主要發生在經濟情況相對穩定的情況下，意即在金融危機日趨嚴重以前，測量從眾行為的指標反而比較顯著。例如在2007年和2008年時的經濟情況比在2003年、2004年和2005年時還要衰退，但測量到存在顯著跨國從眾行為的月數反而較少。二、持續存在顯著跨國從眾行為的最長期間為2005年3月到2006年1月，歷經11個月。三、最常被觀測到有顯著從眾行為現象的月份為1月、11月和12月。 / This paper mainly examines under what conditions herding behavior is likely to become more significant and obvious, in which I modify Hwang and Salmon (2004)’s methodology and use the returns data of Taiwan Weighted Index, Taiwan 50 stock Index, S&P 500 stock and Dow Jones Industry Index of the sample period of October 1, 2003 to February 28, 2009 to test if there is any multinational herding behavior. I find that Taiwan investors in this sample period follow (even imitate) the investment actions of American investors. In more details about the herding patterns, we have found three main phenomena. First, herding behavior mainly occurs significantly during relatively quiet period, say, before the financial crisis, rather than when the market is under stress. The economic situations in 2007 and 2008 are much worse than in 2003, 2004, and 2005, but numbers of months exhibiting significant herding in these bad situations are less. Second, the longest lasting time of herding is March 2005 to January 2006, which totally lasts for eleven months, and this period is before 2007 and 2008 in which the financial systems are destroyed badly. Third, herding always happens in January, November and December given the sample period.