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41	Valorisation des ajustements Xva : de l’exposition espérée aux risques adverses de corrélation / Pricing of XVA adjustments : from expected exposures to wrong-way risks Iben Taarit, Marouan 08 January 2018 (has links) Nous entamons ce rapport de thèse par l’évaluation de l’espérance espérée qui représente une des composantes majeures des ajustements XVA. Sous l’hypothèse d’indépendance entre l’exposition et les coûts de financement et de crédit, nous dérivons dans le chapitre 3 une représentation nouvelle de l’exposition espérée comme la solution d’une équation différentielle ordinaire par rapport au temps d’observation du défaut. Nous nous basons, pour le cas unidimensionnel, sur des arguments similaires à ceux de la volatilité locale de Dupire. Et pour le cas multidimensionnel, nous nous référons à la formule de la Co-aire. Cette représentation permet d’expliciter l’impact de la volatilité sur l’exposition espérée : Cette valeur temps fait intervenir la volatilité des sous-jacents ainsi que la sensibilité au premier ordre du prix, évalués sur un ensemble fini de points. Malgré des limitations numériques, cette méthode est une approche précise et rapide pour la valorisation de la XVA unitaire en dimension 1 et 2.Les chapitres suivants sont dédiés aux aspects du risque de corrélations entre les enveloppes d’expositions et les coûts XVA. Nous présentons une modélisation du risque général de corrélation à travers une diffusion stochastique multivariée, comprenant à la fois les sous-jacents des dérivés et les intensités de défaut. Dans ce cadre, nous exposons une nouvelle approche de valorisation par développements asymptotiques, telle que le prix d’un ajustement XVA correspond au prix de l’ajustement à corrélation nulle, auquel s’ajoute une somme explicite de termes correctifs. Le chapitre 4 est consacré à la dérivation technique et à l’étude de l’erreur numérique dans le cadre de la valorisation de dérivés contingents au défaut. La qualité des approximations numériques dépend uniquement de la régularité du processus de diffusion de l’intensité de crédit, et elle est indépendante de la régularité de la fonction payoff. Les formules de valorisation pour CVA et FVA sont présentées dans le chapitre 5. Une généralisation des développements asymptotiques pour le cadre bilatéral de défaut est adressée dans le chapitre 6.Nous terminons ce mémoire en abordant un cas du risque spécifique de corrélation lié aux contrats de migration de rating. Au-delà des formules de valorisation, notre contribution consiste à présenter une approche robuste pour la construction et la calibration d’un modèle de transition de ratings consistant avec les probabilités de défaut implicites de marché / The point of departure of this thesis is the valuation of the expected exposure which represents one of the major components of XVA adjustments. Under independence assumptions with credit and funding costs, we derive in Chapter 3 a new representation of the expected exposure as the solution of an ordinary differential equation w.r.t the default time variable. We rely on PDE arguments in the spirit of Dupire’s local volatility equation for the one dimensional problem. The multidimensional extension is addressed using the co-area formula. This forward representation gives an explicit expression of the exposure’s time value, involving the local volatility of the underlying diffusion process and the first order Greek delta, both evaluated only on finite set of points. From a numerical perspective, dimensionality is the main limitation of this approach. Though, we highlight high accuracy and time efficiency for standalone calculations in dimensions 1 and 2.The remaining chapters are dedicated to aspects of the correlation risk between the exposure and XVA costs. We start with the general correlation risk which is classically modeled in a joint diffusion process for market variables and the credit/funding spreads. We present a novel approach based on asymptotic expansions in a way that the price of an XVA adjustment with correlation risk is given by the classical correlation-free adjustment to which is added a sum of explicit correction terms depending on the exposure Greeks. Chapter 4 is consecrated to the technical derivation and error analysis of the expansion formulas in the context of pricing credit contingent derivatives. The accuracy of the valuation approach is independent of the smoothness of the payoff function, but it is related to the regularity of the credit intensity model. This finding is of special interest for pricing in a real financial context. Pricing formulas for CVA and FVA adjustments are derived in Chapter 5, along with numerical experiments. A generalization of the asymptotic expansions to a bilateral default risk setting is addressed in Chapter 6.Our thesis ends by tackling the problem of modeling the specific Right-Way Risk induced by rating trigger events within the collateral agreements. Our major contribution is the calibration of a rating transition model to market implied default probabilities Equation Approximations stochastiques Risque de corrélation WWR Collateral avec Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA/DVA) Exposure forward equation Stochastic approximations Wrong-Way Risk Collateral rating triggers
42	Efficient Monte Carlo Simulation for Counterparty Credit Risk Modeling / Effektiv Monte Carlo-simulering för modellering av motpartskreditrisk Johansson, Sam January 2019 (has links) In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation for CCR (Counterparty Credit Risk) modeling is investigated. A jump-diffusion model, Bates' model, is used to describe the price process of an asset, and the counterparty default probability is described by a stochastic intensity model with constant intensity. In combination with Monte Carlo simulation, the variance reduction technique importance sampling is used in an attempt to make the simulations more efficient. Importance sampling is used for simulation of both the asset price and, for CVA (Credit Valuation Adjustment) estimation, the default time. CVA is simulated for both European and Bermudan options. It is shown that a significant variance reduction can be achieved by utilizing importance sampling for asset price simulations. It is also shown that a significant variance reduction for CVA simulation can be achieved for counterparties with small default probabilities by employing importance sampling for the default times. This holds for both European and Bermudan options. Furthermore, the regression based method least squares Monte Carlo is used to estimate the price of a Bermudan option, resulting in CVA estimates that lie within an interval of feasible values. Finally, some topics of further research are suggested. / I denna rapport undersöks Monte Carlo-simuleringar för motpartskreditrisk. En jump-diffusion-modell, Bates modell, används för att beskriva prisprocessen hos en tillgång, och sannolikheten att motparten drabbas av insolvens beskrivs av en stokastisk intensitetsmodell med konstant intensitet. Tillsammans med Monte Carlo-simuleringar används variansreduktionstekinken importance sampling i ett försök att effektivisera simuleringarna. Importance sampling används för simulering av både tillgångens pris och, för estimering av CVA (Credit Valuation Adjustment), tidpunkten för insolvens. CVA simuleras för både europeiska optioner och Bermuda-optioner. Det visas att en signifikant variansreduktion kan uppnås genom att använda importance sampling för simuleringen av tillgångens pris. Det visas även att en signifikant variansreduktion för CVA-simulering kan uppnås för motparter med små sannolikheter att drabbas av insolvens genom att använda importance sampling för simulering av tidpunkter för insolvens. Detta gäller både europeiska optioner och Bermuda-optioner. Vidare, används regressionsmetoden least squares Monte Carlo för att estimera priset av en Bermuda-option, vilket resulterar i CVA-estimat som ligger inom ett intervall av rimliga värden. Slutligen föreslås några ämnen för ytterligare forskning. CCR OTC derivatives European option Bermudan option CVA jump-diffusion model stochastic intensity model Monte Carlo variance reduction importance sampling least squares Monte Carlo CCR OTC-derivat europeisk option Bermuda-option CVA jump-diffusion-modell stokastisk intensitetsmodell Monte Carlo variansreduktion importance sampling least squares Monte Carlo Probability Theory and Statistics Sannolikhetsteori och statistik
43	Capital social em comunidades virtuais de aprendizagem / Capital social em comunidades virtuais de aprendizagem Bliska, Anita Vera 17 August 2007 (has links) O objetivo deste trabalho é propor um instrumento de medição de desempenho em Comunidades Virtuais de Aprendizagem (CVA). Para isso foram utilizadas as variáveis da teoria do capital social. Todo o trabalho está direcionado à construção de uma matriz composta pelas variáveis: (a) capital social estrutural, sob o enfoque econômico, aqui relacionado aos fatores de infra-estrutura tecnológica e utilização de ambientes virtuais, bem como às políticas de incentivo ao uso de recursos de Tecnologia da Informação; (b) capital social cognitivo, gerado por meio da criação da cultura virtual e (c) coesão social sob o enfoque ações coletivas, analisadas a partir da interação e colaboração entre seus participantes no tocante à promoção de tais ações. A pesquisa parte do pressuposto de que a geração de conhecimento em ambientes virtuais de aprendizagem está relacionada à alfabetização digital e à conseqüente utilização dos ambientes virtuais pelos participantes da comunidade em estudo. A metodologia está fundamentada na análise etnográfica do ambiente estudado, nas técnicas de coleta por meio de questionário, bem como na análise da construção de um discurso do sujeito coletivo. Uma visão estruturada dessas questões relativas ao desempenho de uma CVA está representada na Matriz do Capital Social resultante. Esta visão converge para os requisitos almejados nas análises de desempenho, ou seja para o estabelecimento de metas de gestão e a avaliação de seus resultados. / This paper has the objective of proposing a measuring tool for performances in Virtual Learning Communities (VLC). For this purpose, variables of the theory of social capital have been used. The whole work heads for the building of a matrix with the following variables: a) structural social capital under economic focus, here related to factors such as technological infra-structure and the use of virtual environments, as well as policies to encourage the use of resources of Information Technology (IT); b) cognitive social capital, generated through the creation of virtual culture, and c) social cohesion under the focus of social actions, analyzed from the point of view of the interaction and cooperation of their participants in respect to the promotion of such actions. The research starts from the presupposition that knowledge generation in virtual learning environments is related to digital literacy, and the use of virtual environments by the participants of the studied community is a consequence. The methodology is based on the ethnographic analysis of the environment under study, on the techniques of collecting data through questionnaires, as well as on the analysis of the construction of a discourse of a collective subject. A structured view of these questions related to the performance of a VLC is represented in the resulting Social Capital Matrix. This view converges to the requisites desired in the different performance analyses or, in other words, to the establishment of management goals and the assessment of their results. Ações Coletivas Capital Social Capital Social Cognitivo Capital Social Estrutural Coesão Social Cognitive Social Capital Matriz do Capital Social Social Actions Social Capital Matrix Social Cohesion Structural Social Capital Virtual Learning Communities (VLC)
44	Capital social em comunidades virtuais de aprendizagem / Capital social em comunidades virtuais de aprendizagem Anita Vera Bliska 17 August 2007 (has links) O objetivo deste trabalho é propor um instrumento de medição de desempenho em Comunidades Virtuais de Aprendizagem (CVA). Para isso foram utilizadas as variáveis da teoria do capital social. Todo o trabalho está direcionado à construção de uma matriz composta pelas variáveis: (a) capital social estrutural, sob o enfoque econômico, aqui relacionado aos fatores de infra-estrutura tecnológica e utilização de ambientes virtuais, bem como às políticas de incentivo ao uso de recursos de Tecnologia da Informação; (b) capital social cognitivo, gerado por meio da criação da cultura virtual e (c) coesão social sob o enfoque ações coletivas, analisadas a partir da interação e colaboração entre seus participantes no tocante à promoção de tais ações. A pesquisa parte do pressuposto de que a geração de conhecimento em ambientes virtuais de aprendizagem está relacionada à alfabetização digital e à conseqüente utilização dos ambientes virtuais pelos participantes da comunidade em estudo. A metodologia está fundamentada na análise etnográfica do ambiente estudado, nas técnicas de coleta por meio de questionário, bem como na análise da construção de um discurso do sujeito coletivo. Uma visão estruturada dessas questões relativas ao desempenho de uma CVA está representada na Matriz do Capital Social resultante. Esta visão converge para os requisitos almejados nas análises de desempenho, ou seja para o estabelecimento de metas de gestão e a avaliação de seus resultados. / This paper has the objective of proposing a measuring tool for performances in Virtual Learning Communities (VLC). For this purpose, variables of the theory of social capital have been used. The whole work heads for the building of a matrix with the following variables: a) structural social capital under economic focus, here related to factors such as technological infra-structure and the use of virtual environments, as well as policies to encourage the use of resources of Information Technology (IT); b) cognitive social capital, generated through the creation of virtual culture, and c) social cohesion under the focus of social actions, analyzed from the point of view of the interaction and cooperation of their participants in respect to the promotion of such actions. The research starts from the presupposition that knowledge generation in virtual learning environments is related to digital literacy, and the use of virtual environments by the participants of the studied community is a consequence. The methodology is based on the ethnographic analysis of the environment under study, on the techniques of collecting data through questionnaires, as well as on the analysis of the construction of a discourse of a collective subject. A structured view of these questions related to the performance of a VLC is represented in the resulting Social Capital Matrix. This view converges to the requisites desired in the different performance analyses or, in other words, to the establishment of management goals and the assessment of their results. Ações Coletivas Capital Social Capital Social Cognitivo Capital Social Estrutural Coesão Social Matriz do Capital Social Cognitive Social Capital Social Actions Social Capital Matrix Social Cohesion Structural Social Capital Virtual Learning Communities (VLC)
45	Internprissättning och tullvärde : Det är bättre att förekomma än att förekommas / Transfer Pricing and Customs Value : Prevention is Better than Cure Söderberg, Anna January 2015 (has links) Globaliseringen bidrar till en ökad världshandel och medför även ett växande antal gränsöverskridande koncerninterna transaktioner inom multinationella företag. Prissättningen av transaktioner vilka vidtas mellan närstående företag måste ske i enlighet med armlängdsprincipen som om transaktionerna vidtagits mellan två oberoende företag. Skattemyndigheterna kan justera internpriserna i slutet av beskattningsåret i de fall de anser att internprissättningen avviker från armlängdsprincipen och marknadsmässiga villkor. Utöver inkomstbeskattning åläggs företagen att betala tullavgifter i samband med transaktioner vidtagna med närstående företag etablerade utanför EU. I likhet med skattemyndigheterna granskar tullmyndigheterna företagens importpriser i syfte att säkerställa att parternas närståenderelation inte påverkat prissättningen. Båda myndigheterna arbetar således för samma mål, att upprätthålla prissättningens förenlighet med marknadsmässiga villkor. Skatte- och tullmyndigheterna tillämpar dock olika prissättningsmetoder i syfte att uppnå målet. Inkomstskatten baseras på företagens totala inkomster, relaterade till transaktionerna och tullavgiften beräknas baserat på varje specifik transaktion och vara. Det faktum att myndigheterna inkluderar olika tillgångar i de respektive beskattningsunderlagen kan medföra att de bedömer värdet av samma transaktion olika. Varierande bedömningar av samma pris kan vidare medföra krav på olika prisjusteringar i syfte att uppnå marknadsmässig prissättning. Prisjusteringar kan leda till onödiga skattetillägg och liknande straffavgifter. Det föreligger svårigheter för multinationella företag att bestämma transaktionspriser som uppfyller båda myndigheternas i syfte att undvika straffavgifter. Problematiken är ännu relativt ouppmärksammad av företag i världen. I amerikansk praxis framkommer att möjligheterna är små för företag att förlita sig på dokumentation upprättad för internprissättning, i syfte att styrka tullavgifter och tullvärde. Det är således betydelsefullt att företag upprättar dokumentationer för både internprissättning och tullvärde för att undvika straffavgifter. Dokumentationen utgör huvudsakligt bevis och ligger till grund för bedömningen av huruvida företagen uppfyllt bevisbördan avseende prisernas förenlighet med marknadsmässiga villkor. Företagen bör etablera en öppen kommunikation med de respektive myndigheterna i syfte att minimera risker för missförstånd eventuella framtida prisjusteringar. Det är bättre att förekomma än att förekommas. / The ‘arm’s length principle’ is fundamental to transfer pricing and cross-border intercompany transactions. The principle states that the prices charged for transactions of goods between related parties must be the same as if the parties were unrelated. Simply, the price needs to equal market values. If the Tax Authority finds the pricing to be inconsistent with the arm’s length principle, the price may be adjusted. In relation to cross-border intercompany transactions outside of the EU, companies have to pay customs duty and regard customs values. The Customs Authorities work to ensure that the price has not been influenced by the intercompany relationship. Thus, the Tax and Customs Authorities share the same goal, which is to ensure that the transaction price is consistent with market values. However, the methods of pursuing the goal differ. The Tax Authorities determine the amount of income tax based on the company’s total revenues deriving from cross-border intragroup transactions. The Customs Authorities on the contrary determine the amount of taxable income based on the value of every specific imported product. The authorities usually consider different values and assets when determining the amount of taxable income. Therefore the same transaction price may be evaluated differently by the Tax and Customs authorities. Price adjustments may be made if the transaction price is considered to differ in relation to market values. Thus, the companies may be obligated to pay tax surcharges or similar monetary penalties. The authorities’ different assessments of the same transaction price may result in difficulties for multinational enterprises in their efforts of meeting both requirements. The problem is regarded in varying degrees in different countries. In American precedent the court has determined the opportunities to be low for companies to depend on transfer pricing documentation when supporting customs value. It is important for companies to keep detailed documentation of both transfer pricing and customs valuation. The documentation serve as vital evidence when proving the compatibility of transaction prices with market values. Companies should also establish good communications with the authorities in order to prepare them for potential future price adjustments. Prevention is better than cure. Transfer pricing customs value prevention better than cure arm’s length principle cross-border intercompany transactions cross-border intercompany transactions intercompany transactions market value market China USA Sweden Swedish tax authority pricing unrelated adjusted customs duty customs duty Customs Authorities intercompany relationship income tax methods taxable income imported products import price adjustments transaction price tax surcharge tax surcharges monetary penalties american precedent documentation transfer pricing documentation future communication customs declaration Tullvärde internprissättning globalisering transaktioner koncernintern gränsöverskridande handel prissättning multinationella multinationell företag multinationellt företag armlängdsprincipen närstående företag närstående företag närstående bolag bolag oberoende företag oberoende skattemyndigheten skattemyndighet internpris koncern bolagskoncern marknadsmässig marknadsmässiga villkor inkomstbeskattning tullavgift tullavgifter tullmyndighet tullmyndigheter importpris importpriser närståenderelation prissättningsmetod prissättningsmetoder transaktion transaktioner beskattningsunderlag prisjustering prisjusteringar skattetillägg straffavgift straffavgifter ouppmärksammat problem dokumentation bevisbörda kommunikation förekomma förekommas internprissättningar OECD svensk lagstiftning kinesisk lagstiftning amerikansk lagstiftning WTO GATT marknadsprismetoden CUP-metoden återförsäljningsprismetoden RPM-metoden kostnadsplusmetoden CPM-metoden nettomarginalmetoden TNMM-metoden vinstfördelningsmetoden PSM-metoden transaktionsvärde transaktionsvärdet identiska varor liknande varor försäljningspris produktionsvärde rimliga medel dokumentationskrav OECD:s riktlinjer riktlinjer jämförelse bevisbörda Kina USA amerikansk CVA amerikanska marknaden svenska marknaden kinesiska marknaden förhållandet mellan ökad samverkan dokumentationspolicy dokumentationskrav kostnader importdeklaration preliminär preliminär importdeklaration

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