No description available.

<p>As a mid-size industrial city in North America, the City of Hamilton has been increasingly experiencing urban sprawl in the past six decades coupled with population growth and economic development. The study of various interdependent processes driving the evolution of urban form requires the application of simulation models that offer urban planners and policy-makers an efficient means for evaluating urban development policies. This thesis focuses on the modeling efforts towards building a microsimulation residential housing market system for the City of Hamilton. To this end, two major tasks have been conducted in this research. First, a state-of-the-art agent-based microsimulation housing market framework has been designed. Second, two model components in the microsimulation framework, namely a real estate appraisal model and a new housing development model, have been estimated. The objective of the real estate appraisal model is to assess the market values of existing dwellings based on the housing transactions in the previous period. Thre e model forms, including a traditional hedonic model, a spatial regression model, and a regression Kriging model, have been employed in estimations for comparison purposes. A series of independent variables that describe the characteristics of dwelling, location, and neighborhood are specified in the explanatory model. The comparisons among estimation results demonstrate that the spatial regression model has achieved a higher goodness-of-fit than the traditional hedonic model. In addition, we verified that spatial autocorrelation is present in the residuals of the traditional hedonic model, which is explicitly captured by the spatial regression model. In terms of model prediction accuracy, spatial models (SAR and Kriging) both achieve a certain level of improvements over the traditional hedonic model. Overall, we end up recommending that the SAR model is more appropriate to be incorporated into the microsimulation framework, as it provides the best match between predicted and observed values. The new housing development model enables the development of a dynamic housing supply module in the simulation framework by modeling the location and type decisions during the housing development process for each year. A parcel -level two-tier nested-logit model has been estimated. The model is able to deal with not only the decision to develop a specific vacant residential land parcel, but also the development type choice. In terms of the factors influencing the decision to develop, the picture revealed from the model estimation results is that land developers are more likely to start a development project in greenfields than in brownfields. As for the type choice decision during the development process, a variety of variables describing transportation accessibility, residential amenities, the characteristics of the land parcel and neighborhood are included in the model specifications.</p> / Master of Arts (MA)

The study’s aim was to examine how Swedish municipalities navigates the housing paradox as a right and a commodity and how they manage housing inequality. This was done by analyzing five municipal guidelines for housing provision. The analysis was carried out through a document study and a directed content analysis. The directed content analysis entails that the previous research and literature has formed the basis of the study’s analytical framework.  The study showed that the municipalities described that certain groups have a claimable right to housing. They also described groups that don’t. The municipalities mainly navigate the paradox by providing support actions and by formulating the guidelines. The municipalities point out certain groups that experience a vulnerable position on the housing market. Constituting these groups are mainly the elderly, households with poor resources, students and young adults. The municipalities provide different support actions to support and help these groups on the housing market. The studied municipalities have a housing shortage, which they describe further complicates the vulnerable groups' situation. The study’s conclusions are therefore that navigating the paradox is a hard task for the municipalities and that housing inequality certainly is a problem that further needs to be treated.

Three essays in this dissertation explore the behavior of individuals in response to the housing crisis and its consequences, and the impact of the pandemic on the short-term rental markets. The first essay examines the economic outcomes of young people who have returned to their parents' home, using data from 2003-2017 waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort (NLSY 97). The economic outcomes of boomerang movers did not improve compared to the period of independent living, and the income gap with young people who remained independent widened. The residential movement of young people who make boomerang moves has an impact on their income, but this effect is short-lived. Going back to a parental house changes the region and urban form significantly, and movement of urban form from the central city to the suburban and from the suburban to out of the MSA has a negative impact on income. Findings from the study suggest implications. First, more affordable housing should be provided to reduce boomerang moves. Second, ways to increase job opportunities should be explored to reduce the short-term negative impact of boomerang move. Finally, education and vocational training opportunities must be increased to close the income gap among young people. The second essay seeks to answer the following questions through the experiences of individual households due to the foreclosure. First, did foreclosed households regain homeownership? Second, is there a relationship between socio-demographic characteristics of foreclosed household and regaining homeownership? Third, where do homeowners who have lost their homes migrate? Finally, what characteristics of the neighborhood help foreclosed households recover? While previous studies have focused on the resilience of housing markets and regions, this study explores the link between regional characteristics and individual household recovery. The recovery of financially disadvantaged households is an important issue for communities and states. Identifying the mechanism that is responsible for household recovery has implications for implementing programs to aid household recovery. This study primarily relies on the 2005 -2019 Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Since 2009, PSID has added survey questions about foreclosure; Whether a foreclosure process has begun, the year and month of the start, the result of the process, and whether a foreclosed home is a primary residence. The findings of this study suggest that the government's recovery assistance program should aim to support relocation to areas with lower poverty rates and higher job and educational opportunities. The final essay explores changes in short-term rentals resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. To identify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, this study uses New York City's Airbnb listing data from Inside Airbnb (IA), as well as supplemental data such as American Community Survey (ACS) data. Change in the number of STRs is divided into (1) the number of units left the platform and (2) the number of new units. The former relates to the survival of existing STR units and, the latter to the location choice of new units. The results show that the impact of several variables on survival and generation mechanisms changed since the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the survival mechanism and the generation mechanism of short-term rentals are different, they should be considered separately in regulating the STR to stabilize local housing markets. / Doctor of Philosophy / Although research has been conducted on the housing crisis and recovery of the housing market, there are still unanswered questions from two aspects. First, have the individuals affected by the crisis recovered? Were the individual decisions in response to the crisis effective? Second, how has the new crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the housing market? Are different characteristics observed from previous housing crises? While the evidence is reported that the relationship between the new crisis and housing demand has changed, the impact of the pandemic on contemporary housing crises such as gentrification and reduced housing stock is unknown. This dissertation explores the trajectories of individual behavior in the housing market, using various data sources and methodologies. Of the three essays in this dissertation, the first two essays explore the behavior of individuals in response to the housing crisis and its consequences, and the final essay explores the impact of the pandemic on the short-term rental markets. The first essay investigates the economic outcomes of young people who return to their parental homes after periods of independent living using NLSY97 data. The second essay investigates the relationship between neighborhoods and the economic recovery of households using Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The third essay explores changes in the survival and generation mechanism of Airbnb units associated with the COVID-19 pandemic using New York City's Airbnb listing data. The results of each study commonly lead to the conclusion that housing affordability should be improved. It also suggests that more affordable housing should be provided in areas of greater opportunities. This dissertation ultimately contributes to identifying individuals at risk from external shocks and suggesting goals and strategies for a healthy housing market.

Fastighetsmarknaden utvecklas i samverkan mellan ekonomi, lagar och regler. En förändring i det institutionella ramverket kan därmed ge förutsättningar för en förändring ifastighetsmarknaden. Denna studie fokuserar på hur de ekonomiska incitamenten förbostadsrättsföreningar att genomföra tredimensionell fastighetsbildning påverkas avförändringar i det institutionella ramverket. Studien fokuserar även på bakomliggandefaktorer till bostadsrättsföreningars genomförande av 3D-delning och utreder för- ochnackdelar för olika tillvägagångssätt och hur processen kan optimeras. För att besvara syftetmed studien har en explorativ studie med semistrukturerade intervjuer genomförts.Resultaten visar att det främsta incitamentet till att genomföra en 3D-delning av lokalytanär att förbättra skattesituationen för föreningen och dess medlemmar. Vilkettillvägagångssätt som är mest fördelaktigt beror på specifika faktorer i byggnaden ochföreningen. Studien visar att försäljning av lokalytan genererar kapital och är ett mindrekrävande alternativ som begränsar ekonomiska risker, men att föreningar med högkompetens kan välja egen förvaltning för att maximera värdet och behålla kontroll. Förföreningar med dåliga driftnetton kan det vara fördelaktigt att först förvalta själva för attsedan sälja när driftnettona förbättrats. Om lokalytan avyttrats har det visats fördelaktigt attbehålla en liten del av lokalytan som ger ett stadigt kassaflöde, samtidigt som äkthetuppnås. Det framgår att komplexiteten i det institutionella ramverket sannolikt minskarbenägenheten för föreningar med låg fastighetsrättslig expertis att genomföra en 3D-delning. Avslutningsvis visar studien att avskaffandet av lättnadsreglerna 2016 har påverkatde ekonomiska incitamenten mest, och att optimering av förrättnings- ochtransaktionsprocessen kräver hög kompetens. / The real estate market develops through the interaction of economics, laws, and regulations. A change in the institutional framework can thus create conditions for a change in the realestate market. This study focuses on how economic incentives for housing cooperatives toimplement three-dimensional property formation are affected by changes in the institutionalframework. The study also examines the underlying factors for housing cooperatives'implementation of 3D division and investigates the advantages and disadvantages ofvarious approaches and how the process can be optimized. To address the purpose of thestudy, an exploratory study with semi-structured interviews was conducted.The results show that the main incentive for carrying out a 3D division of the local area isto improve the tax situation for the association and its members. The most advantageousapproach depends on specific factors in the building and the association. The studyindicates that selling the local area generates capital and is a less demanding option thatlimits financial risks, but associations with high competence may choose self-managementto maximize value and retain control. For associations with poor net operating incomes, itmay be beneficial to manage themselves first and then sell when net operating incomeshave improved. If the local area is sold, it has been shown advantageous to retain a smallpart of the local area that provides a steady cash flow while achieving authenticity. Itappears that the complexity of the institutional framework likely reduces the willingness ofassociations with low property law expertise to carry out a 3D division. Finally, the studyshows that the abolition of the relief rules in 2016 has had the most impact on economicincentives, and that optimizing the decision-making and transaction process requires highcompetence.

Essay 1 (with Mikael Elinder): We show that house prices in general did not respond to a large cut in the property tax in Sweden. Our estimates are based on rich register data covering more than 100,000 sales over a time period of two and a half years. Because the Swedish property tax is national and thus unrelated to local public goods, our setting is ideal for causal identification of the property tax on house prices. Our result that house prices did not respond to the tax cut at the time of implementation cannot be explained by early capitalization at the time of announcement. Two other stories appear to explain our results. First, it is possible that house buyers expect an offsetting increase in the supply of housing. Second, house buyers might simply not understand how the tax cut affects total future costs of owning a house. Unfortunately, it has proven difficult to disentangle the two mechanisms, and we must therefore conclude that both may be relevant. Essay 2:  I investigate government consumption smoothing (sensitivity) under a balanced budget rule in Swedish municipalities. In general, I find Swedish municipalities to be highly consumption sensitive. Municipalities consume 87.6% out of predicted current revenues in the time period leading up to the implementation of the balanced budget rule, and they consume 76.3% out of predicted current revenue in thetime period following the implementation. Fiscally weak municipalities are found to be more consumption sensitive than fiscally strong municipalities. Very weak municipalities have become more consumption sensitive compared with very strong municipalities since the implementation of the balanced budget rule. Thus, I find indicative evidence that both credit market constraints and formal budget rules such as balanced budget rules increase municipal consumption sensitivity Essay 3: Using the Swedish municipal sector as my political laboratory, I study the effect of a coalition partner on policy outcomes. I use a version of Regression-Discontinuity Design (RDD) specifically suited to proportional systems to define close elections, which can be used for identifying the effect of the Left Party as coalition partner to the Social Democrats. The Left Party is found to have a positive and medium sized effect on the municipal income tax rate. The positive effect is in line with what we expect given the policy preferences of Left Party representatives, but also given the predictions from political fragmentation theory. I find no effects on expenditures or debt, and the negative result for investments is not robust. Essay 4 (with Linuz Aggeborn): In a model where voters and politicians have different preferences for how much to spend on basic welfare services contra immigration, we conclude that established politicians that are challenged by right-wing populists will implement a policy with no spending on immigration if the cost of immigration is high enough. Additionally, adjustment to right-wing populist policy is more likely when the economy is in a recession. Voters differ in their level of private consumption in such a way that lower private consumption implies higher demand for basic welfare services at the expense of immigration, and thus stronger disposition to support right-wing populist policies. We propose that this within-budget-distributional conflict can arise as an electorally decisive conflict dimension if parties have converged to the median voter on the size-of-government issue. / <p>Felaktigt isbn: 978-91-85519-61-3</p>

Cette thèse étudie les stratégies résidentielles des ménages par l'angle des budgets logement et transport, incluant débours monétaires et budgets temps et distance dans le cas du transport. Elle vise à mieux cerner le rôle des contraintes budgétaires dans les choix résidentiels, notamment pour mieux représenter ces derniers en modélisation appliquée. Un état de l'art compare comment l'économie et les modèles d'interaction transport – usage du sol adressent la demande de logement. Ayant mis en évidence le manque de vision globale d'une part, et une tendance à une vision trop statistique et peu comportementaliste d'autre part, l'étude du rôle des budgets logement et transport tente de remédier à ces deux points. Ceci comprend deux temps : un empirique, via l'étude des budgets transport et logement des ménages franciliens et des implications quant aux stratégies résidentielles, suivi de l'analyse théorique d'une limitation de la dépense de logement ou de logement et de transport / This dissertation investigates household residential strategies using housing and transportation budgets, including outlays and daily travel time and distance in the case of transport. It aims to better understand the role of budget constraints in determining residential choices in order to obtain a clearer representation of these choices in applied modeling. A state of the art compares how housing demand is represented and analyzed in economics with land-use transport interaction modeling. Considering the lack of a comprehensive perspective on the one side and a tendency toward a purely statistical as opposed to a behavioral perspective on the other, our analysis of the role of housing and transport budgets intends to remedy both shortcomings.I examine housing and transport budgets in the Greater Paris Region and their implications for household residential strategies before evaluating the impact of limiting either housing or housing plus transport expenses using a theoretical model

Many economies throughout the world were devastated by the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. Ireland in particular experienced a severe collapse in its housing market. Despite the progression of European-influenced planning policy that was meant to promote balanced regional development in Ireland, the country's housing market vastly overbuilt, exacerbating a housing market crash that ended the Celtic Tiger era. Drawing on Europeanization and historical institutionalism as theoretical frameworks, this thesis argues that the link between these EU-influenced policy principles and local Irish planning practice was weak during an important phase of Ireland's economic growth. This conclusion is demonstrated through the analysis of a case study, McEvoy and Smith v. Meath County Council. The findings show that while Ireland's national government created an ambitious National Spatial Strategy modeled on EU principles, non-binding Regional Planning Guidelines allowed local authorities to continue granting zoning changes and permissions. These decisions were therefore uninhibited by the constraints of population projections, consideration for infrastructure provision, and overall good planning practice. This research calls into question the effectiveness of transferring policy principles from the EU to Member States. It suggests more generally that to implement policy and law successfully, policy makers must appreciate the societal and economic context in which these rules will operate.

I detta arbete beskrivs intresset för och kännedomen om tre innovativa boendeformer som riktar sig till unga vuxna mellan 18 och 35 år på den svenska bostadsmarknaden. Det belyser det befintliga beståndet av bostäder och unga vuxnas största hinder för att erhålla en bostad. Arbetet tar sin utgångspunkt i den rådande bostadsbristen i Sverige, där flertalet grupper av olika skäl upplever hinder att ta sig in på bostadsmarknaden. Detta bidrar till att offentliga aktörer och olika bostadsutvecklare behöver hitta nya sätt för att underlätta för utsatta grupper att erhålla en bostad. Studien baseras på litteraturstudier av bland annat tidigare forskning, enkätundersökningar med unga vuxna och intervjuer med representanter från olika delar av branschen. Resultaten visar ett intresse för, men låg kännedom om, de tre boendeformerna: hyrköp, ungdomsettor och kooperativa hyresrätter. Dessa är alla anpassade för att avhjälpa problematiken för vissa inom målgruppen, särskilt gruppen unga vuxna, att ta sig in på bostadsmarknaden. / This work concerns the examination of the interest and awareness of three innovative forms of housing that target young adults between the ages of 18 and 35 in the Swedish housing market. It also describes the existing stock of housing and highlights the most serious obstacles for the target group to obtain an accommodation. The work takes it’s starting point in the current housing shortage in Sweden where many groups for various reasons are hindered from the housing market for various reasons. The market is in need for public actors and various housing developers to find new ways to remedy the problem of obtaining an accommodation for these vulnerable groups. The study is based on previous research, surveys with young adults and interviews with intermediaries from different parts of the industry as a methodology. The results show an interest for, but low knowledge about the three types of housing: rent purchases, youth sets and cooperative rental apartments adapted for young adults. These are all adapted to reduce the problem for some persons within the target group to enter the housing market.

Um dos aspectos regulatórios fundamentais para o mercado imobiliário no Brasil são os limites para obtenção de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação. Esses limites podem ser definidos de forma a aumentar ou reduzir a oferta de crédito neste mercado, alterando o comportamento dos seus agentes e, com isso, o preço de mercado dos imóveis. Neste trabalho, propomos um modelo de formação de preços no mercado imobiliário brasileiro com base no comportamento dos agentes que o compõem. Os agentes vendedores têm comportamento heterogêneo e são influenciados pela demanda histórica, enquanto que os agentes compradores têm o seu comportamento determinado pela disponibilidade de crédito. Esta disponibilidade de crédito, por sua vez, é definida pelos limites para concessão de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação. Verificamos que o processo markoviano que descreve preço de mercado converge para um sistema dinâmico determinístico quando o número de agentes aumenta, e analisamos o comportamento deste sistema dinâmico. Mostramos qual é a família de variáveis aleatórias que representa o comportamento dos agentes vendedores de forma que o sistema apresente um preço de equilíbrio não trivial, condizente com a realidade. Verificamos ainda que o preço de equilíbrio depende não só das regras de concessão de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação, como também do preço de reserva dos compradores e da memória e da sensibilidade dos vendedores a alterações na demanda. A memória e a sensibilidade dos vendedores podem levar a oscilações de preços acima ou abaixo do preço de equilíbrio (típicas de processos de formação de bolhas); ou até mesmo a uma bifurcação de Neimark-Sacker, quando o sistema apresenta dinâmica oscilatória estável. / One of the fundamental regulatory aspects for the housing market in Brazil are the limits for obtaining a residential mortgage loan within the Sistema Financeiro de Habitação. These limits can be defined so as to increase or reduce credit supply in this market, changing its agents behavior and, therefore, the housing market price. In this work we propose a pricing model for the brazilian housing market based on the behavior of its agents. Sellers have heterogeneous behavior and are influenced by the historical demand, while buyers behavior is determined by credit availability. The availability of credit is, in its turn, defined by the regulatory limits for obtaining a residential mortgage loan. We have verified that the Markov process which describes the market price converges to a deterministic dynamical system as the number of agents increase, and we have analyzed the behavior of this emerging system. We show which family of random variables may represent the behavior of sellers so that the system has a nontrivial equilibrium price, consistent with reality. We have also verified that the equilibrium price depends not only on the regulatory limits for obtaing a loan, but also on buyers reserve price and on sellers memory and sensitivity to changes in the demand. Sellers memory and sensitivity to changes in the demand can result in price oscillations above or below the equilibrium level, which is typical in bubble formation processes; or even in a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, when the price has a stable oscillatory dynamics.