Balance between energy consumption and production of electricityis a very important for the electric power system operation and planning. Itprovides a good principle of effective operation, reduces the generation costin a power system and saves money. Two novel approaches to reduce thetotal errors between forecast and real electricity consumption wereproposed. An Adaptive Linear Regression of Original Predictions (ALROP)was constructed to modify the existing predictions by using simple linearregression with estimation by the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method.The Weighted Least Square (WLS) method was also used as an alternativeto OLS. The Modeling of Prediction Errors (MPE) was constructed in orderto predict errors for the existing predictions by using the Autoregression(AR) and the Autoregressive-Moving-Average (ARMA) models. For thefirst approach it is observed that the last reported value is of mainimportance. An attempt was made to improve the performance and to getbetter parameter estimates. The separation of concerns and the combinationof concerns were suggested in order to extend the constructed approachesand raise the efficacy of them. Both methods were tested on data for thefourth region of Sweden (“elområde 4”) provided by Bixia. The obtainedresults indicate that all suggested approaches reduce the total percentageerrors of prediction consumption approximately by one half. Resultsindicate that use of the ARMA model slightly better reduces the total errorsthan the other suggested approaches. The most effective way to reduce thetotal consumption prediction errors seems to be obtained by reducing thetotal errors for each subregion.

Ce mémoire propose une analyse de la théorie de la volonté en relation avec le mal dans la pensée de Thomas d’Aquin. Le mal est une privation d’être et l’être est identique au bien. La volonté est une forme intellectuelle d’appétit, ainsi que la gouvernante des puissances inférieures, mais aussi de la raison qui est à la fois son principe. L’appétit est un mouvement vers ce qui est le bien d’une nature, il est donc difficile d’accepter que la volonté puisse élire son contraire qui est le mal. La thèse de Platon selon laquelle le mal n’est désiré que par ignorance est écartée, puisque le propos de Thomas est d’expliquer le consentement en faveur du mal connu. Or, si le mal peut être voulu, on ne peut le vouloir sans le référer au bien. Ainsi, le libre arbitre, bien qu’ayant Dieu pour principe, est le principe du premier mauvais choix. La compréhension de la problématique passe par la division de ce qui appartient à l’extérieur de la volonté et ensuite à l’intérieur. De soi, un acte extérieur peut être immoral, comme le vol, mais la volonté d’une intention bonne qui choisit cet acte devient mauvaise, bien qu’elle garde le mérite de sa bonne intention. Son choix mauvais est parfois dû à une certaine ignorance, mais, puisque nous n’ignorons pas toujours le mal, il faut attribuer une faiblesse à la volonté, car elle n’accomplit pas pleinement sa nature. Quand elle répète ses actes de faiblesse à l’égard du mal, elle se dispose à accueillir l’habitus de la malice, et alors elle cherche d’elle-même le mal. Aucun de ces principes, cependant, ne peut s’appliquer à l’homme originel ni au diable. Ceux-ci n’auront pour principe de leurs choix que l’orgueil dans le libre exercice de la volonté. / This paper proposes to analyse the theory of will in interaction with evil in Thomas Aquinas’s thought. Evil is a privation of being, and being is identical to good. The will is an intellectual form of appetite, as well as the governor of lower faculties and of reason, which is also its principle. Appetite is a movement towards the good of a nature; it is therefore difficult to accept that will could elect its opposite, which is evil. Plato’s thesis consisting of attributing the will towards bad to ignorance is discarded, because Thomas’s explanation concerns the consent towards evil witch is known. Now, if evil can be wanted, we cannot want it without referring it to good. In that way, free will, though having God for principle, is the principle of the first bad choice. The comprehension of the problem has to go through the division of that which belongs to the will’s exterior and to it’s interior. In itself, an exterior act can be immoral, like stealing, but the good intentioned will that choses this act then becomes evil, keeping nonetheless the merit of its good intention. The bad choice is sometimes attributable to ignorance, but since we do not always ignore evil, we have to accuse a certain weakness in the will for not being able to fulfill its nature. When it repeatedly acts weakly towards evil, it makes itself available for the mischievous habitus, and it then, on its own, searches the evil act. None of these principles, though, can apply to the original man or for the devil. They will not have any other principle for their choice than that of pride in the free exercise of their will.

Hadriaan Beverland (1650-1716) was banished from Holland in 1679. Why did this humanist scholar get into so much trouble in the most tolerant part of Europe in the seventeenth century? In an attempt to answer this question, this thesis places Beverland's writings on sex, sin, Scripture, and scholarship in their historical context for the first time. Beverland argued that lust was the original sin and highlighted the importance of sex in human nature, ancient history, and his own society. His works were characterized by his erudite Latin, satirical style, and disregard for traditional genres and hierarchies in early modern scholarship. Dutch theologians disliked his theology and exegesis, and hated his use of erudition to mock their learning, morality, and authority. Beverland's humanist colleagues did not support his studies either, because they believed that drawing attention to the sexual side of the classics threatened the basis of the humanist enterprise. When theologians asked for his arrest and humanist professors left him to his fate, Dutch magistrates were happy to convict Beverland because he had insolently accused the political and economic, as well as the religious and intellectual elite of the Dutch Republic, of hypocrisy. By restricting sex to marriage, in compliance with Reformed doctrine, secular authorities upheld a sexual morality that was unattainable, Beverland argued. He proposed honest discussion of the problem of sex and suggested that greater sexual liberty for the male elite might be the solution. Beverland's crime was to expose the gap between principle and practice in sexual relations in Dutch society, highlighting the hypocrisy of a deeply conflicted elite at a precarious time. His intervention came at the moment when the uneasy balance struck between Reformed orthodoxy, humanist scholarship, economic prosperity, and patrician politics, which had characterized the Golden Age of the Dutch Republic, was disintegrating, with unsettling consequences for all concerned. Placing Beverland's fate in this context of change provides a fresh perspective on the intellectual environment of the Republic in the last decades of the seventeenth century.

This thesis will build upon my undergraduate dissertation. It is enriched by the new information about the original historic Beaufort rock garden. It explores the Beaufort rock garden and includes points of view of the experts on its condition today. The following part of the thesis comprises of a proposal for a renewal of the current Bečov botanical garden framework and of a more detailed focus on few selected rocks and their initial planting. The main contribution of this work is an expansion of the total number of the initially grown plants (from 654 to 1228) thanks to the newly found resources and to the writing down all the newly discovered information from the archival research of the original historical documents dated from 1908 to 1937. All the documents were catalogued by the author of the original concept alpina, the head gardener Johann Koditek. What we do know from the original documentation is how the area expanded between the years 1922 - 1927 with the purchase of the surrounding land. It is clear that the expenses for the land were about 18 098,31crowns and for various works, building construction, plants, materials and wages the total sum was 468 336.07 crowns. The exact mounting plans for landscape park were rediscovered (10 plans and inventories in total) and 16 plans and inventories in total of 47 for the rock garden. The chart with the total number of the originally cultivated taxa also consists of the surviving taxa in the area (22 specific herb species + 43 specific tree species and 12 tree genera). The synonymy of the original plants was created for three selected rocks and surveyed their purchase options today. Most of the taxa will return back to the garden, only rock no. 8 will have to be planted differently due to the lack of light on the original plants. Keywords: origin

A dissertação trata da existência do foro por prerrogativa de função, previsto na Constituição Brasileira de 1988, para assegurar a algumas autoridades o direito de terem seus crimes comuns e os de responsabilidade julgados nas mais altas Cortes de Justiça do Poder Judiciário. De forma mais específica, examina-se a concessão de foro especial para os membros do Congresso Nacional perante o Supremo Tribunal Federal, medida introduzida no sistema constitucional brasileiro a partir da Emenda Constitucional n. 1/1969 e que tem recebido severas críticas da opinião pública, sobretudo com o aumento do número de deputados e senadores envolvidos em processos criminais. A questão desperta inúmeras polêmicas e alimenta constantes debates na política, na sociedade e na doutrina. Isso porque, diferente dos cidadãos comuns, é conferido um tratamento diferenciado para alguns ocupantes de funções públicas, como uma espécie de garantia, tendo em vista a sua importância no cenário estatal. Argumenta-se, porém, que o foro especial seria um privilégio, o que violaria os princípios da isonomia e do juiz natural, razão pela qual não poderia subsistir no atual desenho do ordenamento jurídico brasileiro. Contribuem para aumentar as divergências as tentativas de se ampliar o rol de indivíduos que dele gozam e as hipóteses em que deve ser aplicado. Neste sentido, a partir do enfoque de questões relativas à jurisdição, com a demonstração dos critérios utilizados para se realizar a fixação da competência no direito brasileiro, incluindo-se a prerrogativa de função, é apresentado o instituto das imunidades parlamentares, destacando suas origens, bem como a evolução histórica do foro especial nas Constituições brasileiras e a experiência de outros países. Em seguida, discutem-se as atuais divergências sobre o foro constitucional, incluindo o cancelamento do verbete n. 394, da Súmula do Supremo Tribunal Federal e as propostas legislativas existentes sobre a matéria. Aborda-se, também, a questão da improbidade administrativa, incluindo-se as controvérsias sobre a natureza jurídica e competência para julgamento de agentes políticos. Por fim, disponibilizam-se alguns dados relativos ao processo e julgamento de parlamentares perante o Supremo Tribunal Federal e expõem-se possíveis soluções alternativas para a questão. / The dissertation deals with the existence of the original jurisdiction, foreseen in the Brazilian Constitution of 1988, to assure to some authorities the right of being judged by the countrys highest Courts. More specifically, it examines the privilege given to Congressmen to be judged by the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court, introduced via a constitutional amendment in 1969, and which has, at late, received severe public criticism, due to the increase in politicians who are suspected of criminal involvement. Such privilege has not only drawn public criticism, but has also given rise to a number of academic debates, not to mention questionings from the political arena. The reason is that, different from common citizens, a special treatment is granted to some occupants of public offices, as a sort of guarantee, considering their importance in the state scene. It is argued that special jurisdiction is not more than a privilege, violating the basic tenets of isonomy and justice. And as such, it should not prosper within the Brazilian legal system. The recent attempts to include other individuals within the jurisdiction of the countrys high courts have only contributed to increase the divergences. In this direction, from the approach of questions of jurisdiction, with the demonstration of the usual criterions known in Brazil, including the special jurisdiction, is presented the institute of parliamentary immunity, detaching its origins, as well as the historical evolution of the phenomenon in the Brazilians Constitutions and the experience of other countries. After that, the current divergences about the subject are argued, including the cancellation of the Supreme Federal Courts Abridgement n. 394 and the related legislative proposals. Administrative improbity is also approached, including the controversies on its legal nature and the venue jurisdiction to judge political agents. In closing, some data is provided about the process and judgment of parliamentarians on Supreme Federal Court and exposed possible alternative solutions to the questions arisen.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:04:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 5021.pdf: 1591649 bytes, checksum: 6798e65e3b572fcfe760f083f660ff50 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-04-05 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / We know that statistic modeling by regression had a stronger impulse since generalized linear models (GLMs) development in 70 decade beginning of the XX century, proposed by Nelder e Wedderburn (1972). GLMs theory can be interpret like a traditional linear regression model generalization, where outcomes don't need necessary to assume a normal distribution, that is, any distribution belong to exponential distributions family. In binary logistic regression case, however, in many practice situations the outcomes response is originally from a discrete or continuous distribution, that is, the outcomes response has an original distribution that is not Bernoulli distribution and, although, because some purpose this variable was later dicothomized by an arbitrary cut of point C. In this work we propose a regression models family with original outcomes information, whose probability distribution or density function probability belong to exponential family. We present the models construction and development to each class, incorporating the original distribution outcomes response information. The proposed models are an extension of Suissa (1991) and Suissa and Blais (1995) works which present methods of estimating the risk of an event de_ned in a sample subspace of a continuous outcome variable. Simulation studies are presented in order to illustrate the performance of the developed methodology. For original normal outcomes we considered logistic, exponential, geometric, Poisson and lognormal models. For original exponential outcomes we considered logistic, normal, geometric, Poisson and lognormal models. In contribution to Suissa and Blais (1995) works we attribute two discrete outcomes for binary model, geometric and Poisson, and we also considered a normal distributions with multiplicative heteroscedastic structures continuous outcomes. In supplement we also propose the binary model with inated power series distributions outcomes considering a sample subspace of a zero inated geometric outcomes. We do several artificial data studies comparing the model of original distribution information regression model with usual regression model. Simulation studies are presented in order to illustrate the performance of the developed methodology. A real data set is analyzed by using the proposed models. Assuming a correct speci_ed distribution, the incorporation of this information about outcome response in the model produces more eficient likelihood estimates. / É sabido que a área de modelagem estatística por regressão sofreu um grande impulso desde o desenvolvimento dos modelos lineares generalizados (MLGs) no início da década de 70 do Século XX, propostos por Nelder e Wedderburn (1972). A teoria dos MLGs pode ser interpretada como uma generalização do modelo de regressão linear tradicional, em que a variável resposta não precisa necessariamente assumir a distribuição normal, e sim, qualquer distribuição pertencente à família exponencial de distribuições. Em algumas situações, porém, a distribuição da variável resposta Se originalmente fruto de uma outra distribuição discreta ou contínua, ou seja, a variável resposta tem uma distribuição original que não Se a usualmente considerada. Um exemplo desta situação Se a dicotomização de uma variável discreta ou contínua por meio de um ponto de corte arbitrário. Além disso, a variável resposta pode estar relacionada, de alguma forma, com uma outra variável de interesse. Nesse trabalho propomos uma família de modelos de regressão com a informação da variável resposta original, cuja distribuição de probabilidades ou função densidade de probabilidade pertence à família exponencial. O modelo de regressão logística com resposta normal e log-normal desenvolvido por Suissa e Blais (1995) Se apresentado como caso particular dos modelos de regressão com resposta de origem. Para a resposta de origem normal consideramos os modelos logístico, exponencial, geométrico, Poisson e log-normal. Para a resposta de origem exponencial consideramos os modelos logístico, normal, geométrico, Poisson e log-normal. Em contribuição ao trabalho de Suissa e Blais atribuímos duas respostas discretas ao modelo logístico, geométrico e de Poisson, e também consideramos uma resposta contínua normal com estrutura heteroscedástica. Adicionalmente, propomos também o modelo logístico com resposta pertencente à classe de distribuições séries de potências inflacionadas considerando o caso particular da resposta geométrica zero inflacionada. Realizamos vários estudos com dados artificiais comparando o modelo de regressão proposto com a informação da distribuição de origem e o modelo de regressão usual. Dois conjuntos de dados reais também são considerados. Assumindo uma distribuição corretamente especificada, o modelo produz estimativas de máxima verossimilhança mais eficientes e estimativas intervalares mais precisas para os coeficientes de regressão.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The thesis examines the issue of Paul Ricoeur s original asymmetry. We defend the thesis that the precedence of asymmetry of mutuality before the symmetry of reciprocity safeguard simultaneously both otherness as the irreplaceability of each person, through mutual recognition. Sustaining this thesis implies, on one hand, to show that symmetry should not be disregarded, since this concept is essential for the establishment of ethics, moral and right. On the other hand, it means considering the possibility of suspension of the struggle for recognition through actual experiences of mutual recognition, symbolized by the exchange of gifts between protagonists; and to pass, thereby, from negativity to positivity, in such a way that the contempt and denial do not reduce the recognition to an original unfamiliarity. Finally, it implies to give priority to the person before the norm, i.e., to ensure that the mutuality of the relationship is not dissolved by the impersonal character of the reciprocity logic. / A tese versa sobre a questão da dissimetria originária em Paul Ricoeur. Defendemos a tese de que a precedência da assimetria da mutualidade ante a simetria da reciprocidade resguarda, simultaneamente, tanto a alteridade quanto a insubstituibilidade de cada pessoa, por meio do reconhecimento mútuo. Sustentar tal tese implica, por um lado, em demonstrar que a simetria não deve ser desconsiderada, uma vez que este conceito é imprescindível para a constituição da ética, da moral e do direito. Por outro lado, significa considerar a possibilidade da suspensão da luta por reconhecimento através de experiências efetivas de reconhecimento mútuo, simbolizadas pela troca de dons entre protagonistas; e passar, desse modo, da negatividade à positividade, de tal forma que o menosprezo e a negação não reduzam o reconhecimento a um desconhecimento originário. Enfim, implica em conceder primazia à pessoa ante a norma, isto é, assegurar que a mutualidade das relações não seja dissolvida pelo caráter impessoal da lógica da reciprocidade.

A dissertação trata da existência do foro por prerrogativa de função, previsto na Constituição Brasileira de 1988, para assegurar a algumas autoridades o direito de terem seus crimes comuns e os de responsabilidade julgados nas mais altas Cortes de Justiça do Poder Judiciário. De forma mais específica, examina-se a concessão de foro especial para os membros do Congresso Nacional perante o Supremo Tribunal Federal, medida introduzida no sistema constitucional brasileiro a partir da Emenda Constitucional n. 1/1969 e que tem recebido severas críticas da opinião pública, sobretudo com o aumento do número de deputados e senadores envolvidos em processos criminais. A questão desperta inúmeras polêmicas e alimenta constantes debates na política, na sociedade e na doutrina. Isso porque, diferente dos cidadãos comuns, é conferido um tratamento diferenciado para alguns ocupantes de funções públicas, como uma espécie de garantia, tendo em vista a sua importância no cenário estatal. Argumenta-se, porém, que o foro especial seria um privilégio, o que violaria os princípios da isonomia e do juiz natural, razão pela qual não poderia subsistir no atual desenho do ordenamento jurídico brasileiro. Contribuem para aumentar as divergências as tentativas de se ampliar o rol de indivíduos que dele gozam e as hipóteses em que deve ser aplicado. Neste sentido, a partir do enfoque de questões relativas à jurisdição, com a demonstração dos critérios utilizados para se realizar a fixação da competência no direito brasileiro, incluindo-se a prerrogativa de função, é apresentado o instituto das imunidades parlamentares, destacando suas origens, bem como a evolução histórica do foro especial nas Constituições brasileiras e a experiência de outros países. Em seguida, discutem-se as atuais divergências sobre o foro constitucional, incluindo o cancelamento do verbete n. 394, da Súmula do Supremo Tribunal Federal e as propostas legislativas existentes sobre a matéria. Aborda-se, também, a questão da improbidade administrativa, incluindo-se as controvérsias sobre a natureza jurídica e competência para julgamento de agentes políticos. Por fim, disponibilizam-se alguns dados relativos ao processo e julgamento de parlamentares perante o Supremo Tribunal Federal e expõem-se possíveis soluções alternativas para a questão. / The dissertation deals with the existence of the original jurisdiction, foreseen in the Brazilian Constitution of 1988, to assure to some authorities the right of being judged by the countrys highest Courts. More specifically, it examines the privilege given to Congressmen to be judged by the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court, introduced via a constitutional amendment in 1969, and which has, at late, received severe public criticism, due to the increase in politicians who are suspected of criminal involvement. Such privilege has not only drawn public criticism, but has also given rise to a number of academic debates, not to mention questionings from the political arena. The reason is that, different from common citizens, a special treatment is granted to some occupants of public offices, as a sort of guarantee, considering their importance in the state scene. It is argued that special jurisdiction is not more than a privilege, violating the basic tenets of isonomy and justice. And as such, it should not prosper within the Brazilian legal system. The recent attempts to include other individuals within the jurisdiction of the countrys high courts have only contributed to increase the divergences. In this direction, from the approach of questions of jurisdiction, with the demonstration of the usual criterions known in Brazil, including the special jurisdiction, is presented the institute of parliamentary immunity, detaching its origins, as well as the historical evolution of the phenomenon in the Brazilians Constitutions and the experience of other countries. After that, the current divergences about the subject are argued, including the cancellation of the Supreme Federal Courts Abridgement n. 394 and the related legislative proposals. Administrative improbity is also approached, including the controversies on its legal nature and the venue jurisdiction to judge political agents. In closing, some data is provided about the process and judgment of parliamentarians on Supreme Federal Court and exposed possible alternative solutions to the questions arisen.

The thesis deals with a current issue of the relationship between pharmaceutical manufacturers and physicians. Its objective it to find out the influence pharmaceutical companies exercise on a physician decision making on providing health care, what influences physicians´ medication selection and whether there are differences in individual physicians´ specializations. Based on the findings of the research the thesis aims at creating suggestions of changes in legislation concerning the relationship between a physician and a pharmaceutical company and the establishment of new rules. The introductory theoretical part describes the role of a physician and pharmaceutical companies in the current health care system. In the practical part the method of qualitative research, characteristics of the research database and results of standardized interviews using direct quotations are presented. Discussion is focused on comparing the research results with the views of media articles and the own opinion of the thesis writer. In the conclusive part of the thesis existing rules are described and the writer recommends some measures which may lead to changes in public attitudes. Another issue, which goes beyond this thesis and could become a topic for further research, is also outlined. Based on the collected data, in the closing part of the work a hypothesis for a potential quantitative research is stated. The contribution of the thesis is based on the possibility of clarifying complicated relations between physicians and pharmaceutical manufacturers both for professional and general public.

ORIBOMBO: Arte da Pós-Modernidade A presente dissertação de mestrado propõe-se a apresentar o Oribombo como arte da pós-modernidade, trazendo a questão do hibridismo do Oribombo, à situação da arte atual, onde se verificam hibridismos de toda natureza, incentivados pela total liberdade. O artista não se prende mais à ideologias e limitações que ditavam as concepções artísticas do passado, inclusive do passado recente. Liberdade é a palavra de ordem da pós-modernidade. Liberdade que se manifesta em todos os segmentos da sociedade. E na arte, uma consequência do livre fazer, é que os hibridismos são constantes, acontecendo de forma natural. As modalidades artísticas são exploradas simultaneamente, abrindo um leque de possibilidades durante o processo de criação. No caso do Oribombo, as modalidades artísticas que se mostraram plasticamente mais interessantes, foram a pintura, gravura, escultura e a colagem. Outra consequência da total liberdade adquirida pelos artistas da pós-modernidade, é que em certos momentos, indaga-se se tudo que é produzido com o título de arte é arte realmente. Essa discussão é muito ampla, mas a premissa de que arte é a produção de um artista, é a que mais ecoa, não somente no meio artístico, como também, entre pensadores e escritores, que direcionaram suas atenções ao desenrolar da história da arte. Os fazeres e conhecimentos artísticos são indispensáveis ao artista plástico visual, sendo assim, as modalidades artísticas que foram fundidas no processo de criação do Oribombo são seculares, mas, a liberdade com que foram tratadas é uma questão pós-moderna. / This dissertation proposes to introduce Oribombo as art of postmodernity, bringing the question of hybridity of Oribombo, the situation of contemporary art, where there are all kinds of hybridisms, encouraged by complete freedom. The artist is not attached to the ideologies and more limitations that dictate the artistic conceptions of the past, even the recent past. Freedom is the slogan of the postmodernity. Freedom that is manifested in all segments of society. And in art, one of the consequences of free artistic making is the hybridism, and it is a constant, happening naturally. The artistic modalities are explored simultaneously, opening up a range of possibilities during the creation process. In the case of Oribombo, the artistic modalities that were artistically more interesting, were the painting, the printmaking, the sculpture and the collage. Another consequence of complete freedom gained by artists of the postmodernity, is that at certain times, inquires if everything is produced with the title art is really art. This discussion is very ample, but the premise that art is the production of an artist, is the one that resonates, not only in the artistic world but also among thinkers and writers, that directed their attention to the course of art history. The doings and artistic knowledge are indispensable to the visual artist. The artistic modalities that were merged into the creation process Oribombo are secular, but the freedom with which they were treated is a postmodern matter.