Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Esta dissertação trata do que se entende como terrorismo após os atentados de setembro de 2001, seja como lógica de ação ou como método de ação. A partir desta data, o terrorismo alcançou enorme projeção e passou a figurar como tema central tanto na imprensa cotidiana quanto em reuniões internacionais de cúpula. O fenômeno era, muitas vezes, historicamente circunscrito às nações que enfrentavam esse problema. Após o Onze de Setembro, o debate expandiu-se e as políticas, e a propaganda, antiterroristas incidiram sobre a sociedade, modificando comportamentos individuais e coletivos. A associação entre Islamismo e terrorismo foi frequente e a Guerra Contra ao Terror (GCT), promovida pela política externa norte-americana de George W. Bush, contribuiu para difundir uma percepção do terrorismo como uma lógica de ação afeita à violência em si. Isso contrasta com a percepção quanto a grupos terroristas de momentos históricos anteriores, cujo recurso ao terrorismo era compreendido como método de ação com valor instrumental para alcançar objetivos políticos diversos, como a emancipação nacional e a desestabilização de regimes políticos estabelecidos. O estudo de caso da Organização de Xangai (OCX) visa demonstrar que a identificação entre terrorismo e Islã leva ao equívoco de compreender os grupos terroristas contemporâneos islâmicos, com lógicas próprias, como uma fenômeno só o que leva à imprecisão de atribuir ao terrorismo o caráter de primeiro fenômeno macro-securitizado. Este breve histórico da ascensão do terrorismo na agenda política contemporânea, mediante a análise do processo securitizador tanto na GCT quanto na Organização de Cooperação de Xangai, serve como referência para as análises contidas no trabalho que o leitor tem em mãos, uma vez que o sentido atribuído ao terrorismo só pode ser entendido em termos dos atores políticos envolvidos na sua definição e no contexto em qual o fazem. Na OCX, o verificou-se o entendimento do terrorismo como método de ação de grupos separatistas, o que não corresponde à ideia do terrorismo como lógica de ação contida na GCT. / We wrote about our understanding what terrorism, after the September 2001 attacks, is liking as a logic and a method of action. After September 2001, terrorism has achieved a huge projection and has been integrated as a central theme in both the daily press and in international summit meetings. The phenomena was often historically confined to nations facing this problem. After 9/11, the debate has expanded and the political counter-terrorism propaganda was focused on society changing individual and collective behavior. The association between Islam and terrorism was common and the War on Terror (WOT), promoted by the American foreign policy of George W. Bush, helped to spread a perception of terrorism as an logic action of pure violence itself. The contrast between perception of the terrorist groups in previous historical periods, whose thinking to practice to terrorism was understood as an method of action with instrumental value to achieve different policy objectives, such as national emancipation and the destabilization of established political regimes. This study of Shanghai Organization (SCO) seeks to demonstrate the identification between terrorism and Islam leads to misunderstanding of understanding (a lack of comprehension) between the contemporary Islamic terrorist groups, with their own logic, and as a phenomenon only - which leads inaccurate to attribute terrorism to an first macro-securitized phenomenon character. This brief history of the rise of terrorism in contemporary political agenda has been analyzing the securitizer process both in WOT and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This study serves as a reference about our thinking and analyzes terrorism not only can be understood in terms of the political actors involved in its definition but in the context in which they do. The SCO has a understanding about terrorism like a method of action of separatist groups, which does not correspond to the idea of terrorism as an logic of action contained in the WOT doctrine.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) first came into being as a result of border negotiations between Russia and China but evolved shortly thereafter into more than this. A regional organization comprised of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and China the SCO’s mandate now encompasses trade and security. Most secondary literature on this organization tends to detail the interests of its constituent members, while overlooking the historical relationships underlying the SCO’s growth and evolution. This thesis argues that Russia’s long-standing relationships with the states of Central Asia created the conditions making the SCO a necessary tool of Russian foreign policy, while Moscow’s relations with China and the US have driven the development of the group. It concludes that the SCO has become the most viable of Central Asia’s regional organizations because it has effectively resolved contradictions and conflicts in Russia’s relationships with the other SCO members.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) first came into being as a result of border negotiations between Russia and China but evolved shortly thereafter into more than this. A regional organization comprised of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and China the SCO’s mandate now encompasses trade and security. Most secondary literature on this organization tends to detail the interests of its constituent members, while overlooking the historical relationships underlying the SCO’s growth and evolution. This thesis argues that Russia’s long-standing relationships with the states of Central Asia created the conditions making the SCO a necessary tool of Russian foreign policy, while Moscow’s relations with China and the US have driven the development of the group. It concludes that the SCO has become the most viable of Central Asia’s regional organizations because it has effectively resolved contradictions and conflicts in Russia’s relationships with the other SCO members.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Esta dissertação trata do que se entende como terrorismo após os atentados de setembro de 2001, seja como lógica de ação ou como método de ação. A partir desta data, o terrorismo alcançou enorme projeção e passou a figurar como tema central tanto na imprensa cotidiana quanto em reuniões internacionais de cúpula. O fenômeno era, muitas vezes, historicamente circunscrito às nações que enfrentavam esse problema. Após o Onze de Setembro, o debate expandiu-se e as políticas, e a propaganda, antiterroristas incidiram sobre a sociedade, modificando comportamentos individuais e coletivos. A associação entre Islamismo e terrorismo foi frequente e a Guerra Contra ao Terror (GCT), promovida pela política externa norte-americana de George W. Bush, contribuiu para difundir uma percepção do terrorismo como uma lógica de ação afeita à violência em si. Isso contrasta com a percepção quanto a grupos terroristas de momentos históricos anteriores, cujo recurso ao terrorismo era compreendido como método de ação com valor instrumental para alcançar objetivos políticos diversos, como a emancipação nacional e a desestabilização de regimes políticos estabelecidos. O estudo de caso da Organização de Xangai (OCX) visa demonstrar que a identificação entre terrorismo e Islã leva ao equívoco de compreender os grupos terroristas contemporâneos islâmicos, com lógicas próprias, como uma fenômeno só o que leva à imprecisão de atribuir ao terrorismo o caráter de primeiro fenômeno macro-securitizado. Este breve histórico da ascensão do terrorismo na agenda política contemporânea, mediante a análise do processo securitizador tanto na GCT quanto na Organização de Cooperação de Xangai, serve como referência para as análises contidas no trabalho que o leitor tem em mãos, uma vez que o sentido atribuído ao terrorismo só pode ser entendido em termos dos atores políticos envolvidos na sua definição e no contexto em qual o fazem. Na OCX, o verificou-se o entendimento do terrorismo como método de ação de grupos separatistas, o que não corresponde à ideia do terrorismo como lógica de ação contida na GCT. / We wrote about our understanding what terrorism, after the September 2001 attacks, is liking as a logic and a method of action. After September 2001, terrorism has achieved a huge projection and has been integrated as a central theme in both the daily press and in international summit meetings. The phenomena was often historically confined to nations facing this problem. After 9/11, the debate has expanded and the political counter-terrorism propaganda was focused on society changing individual and collective behavior. The association between Islam and terrorism was common and the War on Terror (WOT), promoted by the American foreign policy of George W. Bush, helped to spread a perception of terrorism as an logic action of pure violence itself. The contrast between perception of the terrorist groups in previous historical periods, whose thinking to practice to terrorism was understood as an method of action with instrumental value to achieve different policy objectives, such as national emancipation and the destabilization of established political regimes. This study of Shanghai Organization (SCO) seeks to demonstrate the identification between terrorism and Islam leads to misunderstanding of understanding (a lack of comprehension) between the contemporary Islamic terrorist groups, with their own logic, and as a phenomenon only - which leads inaccurate to attribute terrorism to an first macro-securitized phenomenon character. This brief history of the rise of terrorism in contemporary political agenda has been analyzing the securitizer process both in WOT and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This study serves as a reference about our thinking and analyzes terrorism not only can be understood in terms of the political actors involved in its definition but in the context in which they do. The SCO has a understanding about terrorism like a method of action of separatist groups, which does not correspond to the idea of terrorism as an logic of action contained in the WOT doctrine.

蘇聯解體後，中亞地區出現哈薩克斯坦、烏茲別克斯坦、吉爾吉斯坦、塔吉克斯坦與土庫曼斯坦五個新興國家。中亞不但擁有豐富的自然資源及重要的地緣戰略位置，傳統上屬於俄羅斯勢力範圍的地區，並與中國這個崛起中的國際強權為鄰，這樣一個特殊的地區，自然吸引各種國際勢力競相進入。911事件後，美國軍事力量正式進駐中亞，使其得以牽制俄羅斯與中國，中亞地區再次成為國際政治中的焦點。 上海合作組織是一個成立於2001年新興的國際組織，成員國涵括中國、俄羅斯、哈薩克、烏茲別克、吉爾吉、塔吉克。本文透過「地緣政治研究途徑」，來觀察上海合作組織的發展過程與前景；911事件後中亞地區情勢的變化，以及美國駐軍中亞對於上海合作組織發展的影響。 首先，本文說明上海合作組織的發展過程，以觀察各成員國為解決共同問題的實際運作情形，以及介紹上海合作組織的組織結構。同時，探討上海合作組織的合作基礎，說明上海合作組織的成立是各國間基於共同利益與解決共同問題所形成的結果，並進一步分析各成員國自身加入上海合作組織的地緣政治考量。 其次，本文討論極端主義在中亞發展的情形，藉此探討上海合作組織中亞地區成員國之間的內部關係，以及對上海合作組織發展的影響。上海合作組織成立的首要目標是要打擊中亞的極端主義，以維護中亞地區的穩定。 最後，本文說明美國中亞政策的演變，討論911事件後美國駐軍中亞的地緣戰略意涵，及其對中國和俄羅斯的衝擊，最後探討911事件對上海合作組織的發展及中亞情勢的影響。 本文認為：冷戰後，中亞地區在全球地緣戰略格局中的地位顯著上升，成為國際強權爭奪的場域，中國與俄羅斯成立上海合作組織的目的，是為追求在中亞地區中取得優勢地位，911事件後美國駐軍中亞，影響了上海合作組織的發展。911事件後，俄羅斯、中國和美國以中亞地區為場景的地緣政治大競賽中，美國暫時取得優勢地位，俄羅斯是後來居上，中國則必須繼續藉由上海合作組織將強與中亞國家的經濟與軍事合作，以維持在中亞地區的影響力。 / After the collapse of the Soviet Union, in Central Asia emerged five states: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. These countries are not only have the rich natural resources, but also take the important role of the global geostrategic patterns. Traditionally, Central Asia was viewed as a part of Russian’s influence and is adjacent to China. Beyond question, such an unusual area lures the international powers to engage the affairs of it. Since the 911 event, the U.S. acquired the opportunity to deploy their military in Central Asia. By means of military presence, the U.S. found the way to counteract the influence of Russia and China in Central Asia. Consequently, the Central Asia became the focus in international politics. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was established by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in 2001. This dissertation examines the origins and prospects of the SCO, analyzes the variation of geostrategic situation in Central Asia, and discusses how the U.S. military presence in Central Asia influenced the development of SCO. Since the end of the Cold War, the Central Asia has played a significant role in global geostrategic patterns. The motive of China and Russia to promote the establishment of SCO in 2001 is to seek the predominance in the Central Asia. After the 911 event, the U.S. military presence appeared in Central Asia. And this fact indeed affected the development of SCO. China, Russia and U.S. as the three main actors of the ongoing New Great Game, which is occurring in Central Asia. The results of the New Great Game are as follow, U.S. temporarily stands on a vantage point in the present days. As for Russia, it takes the second place by controlling the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization. As regards China, by exerting the SCO to enhance the economic and political ties with Central Asia countries, it still strives to maintain the influence in Central Asia.

20世紀的80至90年代初期，國際形勢發生劇烈動盪與變化，蘇聯於發生解體、東歐局勢劇變，過去美蘇「兩強對峙」之兩極格局所造成40多年的冷戰終告結束，國際體系由「一超多強」，轉變成多極化方向發展。此時中國在綜合國力發展上也有很大的變化，態勢積極的朝大國關係方向調整，除專注內部發展外，更重視與周邊國家的安全關係。中國知到，一個穩定、和睦的周邊環境，才有利於中國持續性發展，在周邊建立安全與穩定的緩衝帶後，可避免與其他大國發生衝突。因為，有安全的環境，才會有安定的社會，才能全面發展經濟，而維繫這種關係的要件，是安全互需和經濟互利與合作。 「上海合作組織」的前身是建立於1996年的「上海五國」機制，是中蘇兩國關於邊境的雙邊談判，蘇聯崩解後改為「上海五國」雙邊談判，再演變成「上海五國」的多邊會談。不但開啟有關邊境軍事安全的會談協商機制，同時亦開啓了穩定區域安全的多邊關係及區域合作模式。烏茲別克加入後，於2001年6月15日，6國元首共同宣布在「上海五國」機制的基礎上成立「上海合作組織」(Shanghai Cooperation Organization)，並發表「上海合作組織成立宣言」。這是中國第一個促成的多邊組織，也是第一個以中國城市命名的政府間組織，成員國包括中國、俄羅斯、哈薩克、吉爾吉斯、塔吉克及烏茲別克等6個國家。 「上海合作組織」創立的首要任務是確保該組織內的和平、安全與穩定，堅決打擊「三股勢力」、毒品及走私等非法交易。並認知當前的國際安全必須建立在各國平等、互信、互利及合作的基礎上，藉由每年定期舉行的元首峰會、總理會議、外交部長會議及不定期舉行的國家協調員會議、各部門領導人會議形成組織運作機制。而位於北京的秘書處及塔什干的地區反恐機構，這兩個常設機構的設立，使上海合作組織朝向更寬廣的方向邁進。本篇論文試圖瞭解冷戰終止及美國「911」恐怖攻擊事件發生後，「上海合作組織」運作與發展方向，直接或間接影響區域經濟及軍事安全的程度為何?另外，就「上海合作組織」與其他大國或國際組織的關係，對全球戰略所產生的影響為何?尤其是中國、美國、日本與俄羅斯的多方戰略關係的發展，非常值得予以持續觀注。 / 1980 to early 1990s, the international system develops from " one superpower and several powers " into a multi-polar direction due to severe turbulences and changes of the international situation, the disintegration of Soviet Union and the drastic changes of Eastern Europe, and the end of the 40-years Cold War which caused by the "a two-confrontation" bipolar situation between U.S.A and the Soviet Union in the past. At this point, there are also great changes in China’s the overall national development, For instance, a positive trend towards big power relations reorientation. Except to focus on internal development, China places more importance on security relations with neighboring countries. China knows that a stable, harmonious surrounding is conducive to China's sustainable development. To establish security and stability buffer zone in the surrounding can avoid conflict with other powers. Since a secure environment is the key to a stable society and a fully develop economic while interdependence and cooperation of security need and economic benefit is the essential element of maintaining this relationship. "Shanghai Cooperation Organization" develops from the "Shanghai Five" mechanism which established in 1996. It was the Sino-Soviet bilateral talks about border between the two countries, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it became the "Shanghai Five" bilateral negotiations which is followed into the "Shanghai Five State "in multilateral talks. This development not only opened consultation mechanism talks on the border military security, also opened a stable regional security, multilateral relations, and regional cooperation. After Uzbekistan joined in June 15, 2001, six heads of state announced the establishment of the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization" which based on the "Shanghai Five" mechanism and issued a "Declaration of Shanghai Cooperation Organization." This is the first multilateral organization which promoted by China and is the first intergovernmental organization in the name of Chinese city. The member States includes China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and other six countries. The first and foremost task of "Shanghai Cooperation Organization" is to ensure peace, security and stability of the organization, and resolutely combat the "three forces", drugs, smuggling and other illegal transactions. And to aware that the current international security must be based on national equality, mutual trust, mutual benefit and cooperation. By holding annual heads of states summit meeting, Prime Ministers meeting, Foreign Ministers meeting, and occasional meetings of national coordinators, leaders of various departments to form the operating mechanism of organizations. The establishments of two permanent organizations, the Secretariat in Beijing and the 4 regional anti-terrorism agency in Tashkent, lead the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to move towards a broader direction. This paper attempts to find out the operation and development direction of the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization" after the end of Cold War and "911" terrorist attacks in the United States, and the degree of how does this directly or indirectly affect the regional economic and military security so far? In addition, what is the impact that the relationships of the"Shanghai Cooperation Organization" between other major countries or international organizations affects on global strategic? Especially the development of multi-strategic relations between China, the United States, Japan and Russia, is very worthwhile continuing being concerned. Keywords：Shanghai Cooperation Organization, economic security, military security, Central Asia, relations among major powers

位於歐亞大陸中心的中亞國家，在蘇聯解體後重新回到世界政治舞台，因所處的敏感地理位置及擁有豐富能源優勢，地緣戰略的重要性格外突顯。中亞國家目前尚處於重大轉型期，油氣資源為其對外發展及穩定內部的有利憑藉，該區域各國莫不積極運用天賦條件，期在大國競逐及全球化衝擊中，有效獲取國家利益。 中國因經濟快速成長，進口石油的依賴程度不斷攀升，制約其經濟與綜合國力的發展，並對國家安全形成威脅。面臨石油安全困境，中國站在全球能源領域的制高點，積極拓展油源，緊鄰的中亞地區石油蘊藏豐富，成為中國強化能源合作關係，以維護來源穩定的首要選擇。 本文從「地緣戰略」的觀點，分析中國及中亞的地緣政治及石油安全形勢，並探討中國在該地區能源外交內涵、佈局與實踐，以及所面臨的機遇與挑戰等議題。綜觀之，中國對中亞的石油整體戰略佈局，係以外交為後盾，國營石油企業為主軸，上海合作組織為平台，雙邊及多邊型式並進，藉由地緣優勢建構中亞和諧地區，並透過籌建中國陸路油氣供應路徑，朝向來源多元化，以避免海上運油風險及分散石油供給集中之制約。另以中亞諸國為謀求現實的戰略利益，採行門戶開放及多邊平衡外交策略，使得美國、歐盟及日本等各主要大國力量進入。中國為維護油源穩定安全，積極踐行「走出去」與「多元化」之戰略，其與各大國在中亞的能源競逐仍將持續，同時影響區域及全球政經局勢。 / The importance of geostrategy is obvious for those Central Asian countries, backing the political stage of the world after dissolution of the Soviet Union, in the central mainland of Euro-Asia because of their sensitive geographical location with advantage of abundant energy. At present, those countries are under reforming period and aggressively try to use their innate conditions, especially the resources of gas or petroleum, for development abroad and stabilization domestically to get interests under the impacts of the great nations’ competition and globalization. On the other hand, China is facing on the economy and comprehensive national strength restriction and national security threaten by petroleum importation dependence and economic growth rapidity. Being face the trouble of petroleum security, China, standing on the commanding point of the global energy field, is aggressive to explore energy resources and try to strength energy cooperative relationships with the Central Asian area, neighbor to China and the best choice, having abundant petroleum to support her stable needs. This study is in the point of view, geostrategy, to analyze the trends of geopolitics and petroleum security between China and those Central Asian countries. The purposes including the energy diplomacy content, layout and practice of China in this area, and the opportunity and challenge are being discussed. To sum up, the overall strategic layouts of petroleum in the Central Asian area for China are using diplomacy as backing, public petroleum enterprise as main axis, Shanghai cooperation organization as platform, both and multi sides processings, Central Asian area harmonizing construction by advantage of geography, and multi-resources via building the terrestrial gas supply routes to avoid the restriction of the risk of petroleum shipping and to decentralize the collection of petroleum supply. Owing to the realistic strategic benefits for those Central Asian countries, by open door policy and multi-sides balance diplomatic strategy, some great nations are trying to get in, including the USA, EU and Japan, etc. For assurance of the stable and security of petroleum supply, China is aggressive to conduct the strategies, “Go out” and “Multiplication”, to continue the energy competition with those great nations, and to influence the area and global economic and political situation.

「上海合作組織」是第一個以中國城市為名的永久性政府間組織，以中文及俄文為正式語言，成員國包括中國、俄羅斯及地處中亞的哈薩克、吉爾吉斯、塔吉克、烏茲別克。而「上海合作組織」的前身是建立於1996年的「上海五國」機制，2001年中，烏茲別克加入「上海五國」機制，同年6月15日，六國元首共同發表「上海合作組織成立宣言」，宣佈在「上海五國」機制基礎上成立「上海合作組織」，當時中共藉著這個機制與俄羅斯及中亞四國開始展開邊境地區信任和裁軍的談判，而這也是「上海合作組織」軍事合作的開端。 本論文以「上海合作組織」軍事合作為研究主題，首先主要探討的目的為從「上海五國」到「上海合作組織」，其軍事合作形成的背景有那些主要因素、其演進的歷程及其內容，其次「上海合作組織」軍事合作的主要內容有那些，接著探討「上海合作組織」軍事合作發展至今，不論外部或內部有那些限制因素影響軍事合作，最後逐一分析「上海合作組織」的軍事合作對全球、區域及台海兩岸的安全情勢未來的發展。 研究發現隨著「上海合作組織」的成立，中共在中亞地區的影響力逐漸加大，中共在中亞日益提昇的力量也形成對俄羅斯的另一種挑戰。2007年6月27日「上海合作組織」六個成員國簽署「上海合作組織成員國關於舉行聯合軍事演習的協定」，使聯合軍演朝向定期化、常態化與制度的趨勢發展，而「上海合作組織」軍事合作發展至今，雖然有許多內外的限制因素，但是其範圍及影響層面卻日漸擴大，對全球、亞太地區或台海兩岸的安全情勢都產生重大的影響，不論兩岸和平談判如何發展，我們都要密切注意「上海合作組織」軍事合作對我軍事、外交等層面所造成的威脅。 / The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is the first permanent inter-government organization named by one of the Chinese cities. Its official language is Chinese and Russian, and its members include China, Russian Federation, Republic of Kazakhstan, Republic of Kyrgyzstan, Republic of Tajikistan and Republic of Uzbekistan. "Shanghai Five" mechanism, established in 1996, was the forerunner of SCO. In 2001, Republic of Uzbekistan joined the "Shanghai Five" mechanism, and in the same year of June 15, the leaders of the six countries announced a joint statement－"the founding declaration of SCO", which declared SCO was established on the basis of the "Shanghai Five" mechanism . By using this mechanism, China started the negotiation, which is about a mutual trust of boarding area and disarmament issues with Russia and four center Asia countries, and this mechanism started the military cooperation in SCO. This thesis mainly focuses on the military cooperation of SCO. First, it will be discussed that the purpose of the organization from the "Shanghai Five" to SCO, including what are the primary factors of forming the military cooperation and its courses of evolution and contents. Second, we talk about what are the main contents of the military cooperation, and the SCO’s external or internal limitation which may influence the military cooperation. Finally, we analyze its future development of security situation in global, regional, and the two sides of the Taiwan Strait areas step by step. The research discovered, with the foundation of SCO, that the China’s influence in center Asia is increasing, which will form another challenge to Russia. On June 27, 2007, the six members of SCO signed “an agreement of holding joint military maneuvers among SCO members” to have them held periodically, normally, and systematically. From now, although there are a lot of limitations, the influence of the military cooperation is increasing and it has played a key role in global, Asia Pacific and the two sides of the Taiwan Strait areas. No matter how the peace negotiation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait areas will go, we must keep a close eye on the fact that the military cooperation could cause Taiwan’s military and diplomacy to be under threat.

The times coming with the End of the Cold War were very turbulent. Politicians had to take into the consideration lots of scenarios and the next global trends to make correct decisions. Most of the very numerous visions of the future global order followed more or less the twofold pattern: order or anarchy. "The End of History and the Last Man" and "The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order" written by two prominent American political scientists Francis Fukuyama and Samuel P. Huntington and published at the beginning of the 90s are the most representative works that fit into this pattern. These provocative and controversial theories have been criticized and empirically challenged by many on one side, on the other side it hasn't impeded others to use them as a starting point for their next analyses. This dissertation thesis is a contribution to the debate between the dissenters and the supporters of these theories from a predictive point of view. Through the research theoretical methodology it is argued that the examined theories are still valid even nowadays because their theoretical essence (or hard core in the Lakatosian research program) has not been refuted yet. Nevertheless, the hard core of the theories determines their very specific character which puts forward the importance of the factors labelled in the Lakatosian framework as an external history of a science. These factors organized according to the Mehtas criteria of so called strong idea are, especially in the social sciences, decisive for how a theoretical construct is accepted in a broader non-academic context. It is demonstrated that both theories fulfill all criteria to be very influential in practice, although the idea of clash of civilizations is even more powerful in this respect. The specific features of all theories are illustrated on two case studies: Union of South American Nations and Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Firstly, the selection of these case studies is justified and secondly, the anomalies in terms of the Lakatosian methodology are identified and then explained. There have been found no unexplainable anomalies, which practically confirms the validity of both research programs on one side, on the other side it facilitates a better assessment of the studied theories in a sense of their interpretative scope and possibilities.