La fin de la confrontation Est-ouest va apparaître comme un tournant décisif dans la lutte contre la prolifération des armes nucléaires. Alors que le monde se réjouissait de la chute du mur de Berlin, le contexte qui va succéder à cette période est marqué par la poursuite, et même l’aggravation de plusieurs crises graves liées à la prolifération nucléaire en Inde, au Pakistan, en Iran et en Corée du Nord. Ces crises, intervenues alors même que la totalité des armes nucléaires à l’échelle mondiale avait été réduite de plus d’un quart depuis la fin de la guerre froide, ont fait l’objet d’une réaction mitigée de la part de la « communauté internationale ». Ces crises montrent qu’il est indispensable de renforcer le régime de non-prolifération nucléaire en apportant des réponses promptes, crédibles et dynamiques. Alors que des doutes sont apparus sur la capacité du régime classique à décourager ceux qui souhaitent développer des activités nucléaires à des fins autres que pacifiques, la nécessité d’envisager des outils modernes et adaptées au contexte géopolitique en pleine mutations, s’est révélée indispensable. Cela suppose un réaménagement du régime classique de non-prolifération dans la perspective de renforcer la légitimité de la norme de non-prolifération. De surcroît, ces crises montrent qu’il est indispensable de renforcer les mécanismes de mise en œuvre du Traité de non-prolifération nucléaire (TNP). Il s’agira d’assurer l’application universelle des accords de garanties de l’AIEA, qui est une obligation du TNP, ainsi que par l’universalisation du protocole additionnel / The end of the East-West confrontation appeared to be a watershed in the fight against the proliferation of nuclear weapons. While the world was celebrating the fall of the Berlin wall, the context that will succeed this time is marked by the continuity and the aggravation of several serious crises linked to nuclear proliferation in India, Pakistan, Iran and North-Korea. These crises occurred even though all nuclear weapons were globally reduced by more than a quarter since the end of the cold war, have been a mixed reaction from the " International community ". These crises show that it is essential to strengthen the nuclear non-proliferation system by providing prompt, credible and dynamic responses. While doubts have been raised about the ability of the classical regime to discourage those who wish to develop nuclear activities for other than peaceful purposes, the need to consider appropriate modern tools to change rapidly geopolitical context seemed to be essential. This implies a rearrangement of the classic nuclear non-proliferation system with a view to strengthen the legitimacy of the norm of non-proliferation. In addition, these crises show that it is essential to strengthen the mechanisms for implementation of the Treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT). The application of an additional protocol, coupled with the implementation of a comprehensive safeguards agreement, is indeed essential to obtain full insurance compliance with non-proliferation commitments and is the current standard to allow the agency (IAEA) to fulfill its mission

The objectives of the study were to demonstrate that South Africa's decisions to develop and destroy its nuclear weapon capability were influenced by reactions to domestic security and other issues unrelated to security. South Africa obtained a nuclear weapon capacity because of an incremental approach to the nuclear weapon decision. The threat perceptions in the mind of the decision maker were also dominant factors, especially when the final decision for a nuclear deterrent was taken. The decision to destroy the nuclear weapon capacity was not primarily influenced by the growing non-proliferation norm, but by the changing security environment regionally as well as globally and possibly a realisation that a nuclear weapon capability was a significant security and financial liability for South Africa in the end. / Political Science / M.A. (International Politics)

Military Strategy is defined as a plan at the military strategic level of war that consists of a set of military strategic ends, ways and means and the relationships between them. This definition leads to the following research questions: 1. How can the extent of the many-to-many relationships that exist between a military strategy, its ends, ways and means be quantified? 2. If the relationships between a military strategy, its ends, ways and means are quantified and if the effectiveness of the force design elements is known, how shall that enable the quantification of the state’s ability to execute its military strategy? 3. If the relationships between a military strategy, its ends, ways and means are quantified and if the effectiveness of the force design elements is known, how will it aid decision-making about the acquisition of the future force design? The first research question is answered by mapping a military strategy complete with its ends, ways and means to a ranked tree where the entities in the strategy corresponds with the vertices of different rank in the tree. The tree representation is used to define and determine the contribution of entities in a military strategy to entities at the next higher level. It is explained how analytical, heuristic and judgement methods can be employed to find the relative and real contribution values. Also, a military strategy for South Africa is developed to demonstrate the concept. The second research question is answered by developing measures of effectiveness taking the interdependence of entities at the terminal vertices of the ranked tree into account. Thereafter, the degree to which the force design would support the higher order entities inclusive of a military strategy could be calculated. The third research question is answered by developing a cost-benefit analysis method and a distance indicator from an optimal point to aid in deciding between supplier options for acquisition. Thereafter the knapsack problem is amended to allow for scheduling acquisition projects whilst optimising the force design's support of a military strategy. Finally, the model is validated and put into a contextual framework for use in the military. / Quantitative management / D.Phil.

At launching the shell body, especially the backplane of the shell body, will be exposed to very high stresses due to acceleration, pressure and increased temperature from the propellant combustion. Defects in the shell body could in worst case for example result in high temperature gas leakage into the warhead and thereby ignite the explosives before exiting the launcher. This kind of explosion results in serious damages and can seriously injure both the gunner and other people in the surroundings. According to earlier study, carbon fibre reinforced epoxy with filament winding manufacturing method was the primary focus. The purpose of this master thesis was to investigate requirements and testing methods on a shell body manufactured in composite that will guarantee the safety of the gunner and surroundings in the launch phase. The pre-study conducted in this project showed that matrix cracks and fibre breakages are most common defects in the shell body that occur during launching affected by burst pressure. Matrix crack is the less dangerous defect among the impact damage types. Discussion with composite manufacturing companies showed that fibre breakage is a very serious type of defect since more breakage of fibres leads to the shell body have reduced stresses and cannot built-up the fully potential burst pressure during launching.   Two requirement specifications were carried out, one for the shell body and another for the detection methods. These were created by own research and ideas according to found information, telephone- and e-mail contact with experts in areas and with personnel at Saab Dynamics AB. Some requirements for the shell body were that it should be fully usable after drop tests from different heights, vibration and transportation tests yield no cyclic damage after a long transport. Furthermore, the shell body should always use a fully isolated driving band to not have hot explosive gases penetrated into critical sections which results in detonation already in the launcher barrel. The most important requirements for the detection methods were to have depth analysis, high reliability and in-field inspection.   Elimination- and decision matrices were made to find which detection methods should be the final selections in order to find the defects in a shell body. The detection methods which did not fulfil the criteria from each separate matrix were eliminated and did not proceed further as a concept. Eliminations were performed in concept generation phase (elimination matrix) and concept selection phase (decision matrix). In final selection phase a couple of methods were chosen that together found as many defects as possible.   By using both acoustic emission and shearography all the critical defects and a wide range of other defects can be detected with very high reliability and resolution at an acceptable cost. These two methods “interact” perfectly with each other. Acoustic emission is the best method to find fibre breakage and matrix cracks, which are the most commonly occurring defects during launching. But shearography does not have a good detectability of fibre breakage and matrix cracks. On the other hand, shearography has good detectability of both planar- and volumetric defects. It is concluded that only two inspection methods, i.e. acoustic emission and shearography are needed to detect all of the possible defects in the grenade shell body. This is more economical solution requiring smaller space and fewer operators compared to one separate NDT method for detecting each type of defect. / Vid utskjutning av granathylsan utsätts framförallt bakplanet, för mycket höga påfrestningar genom acceleration, tryck och förhöjd temperatur från krutförbränningen. Vid en genombränning av granatskalet skulle sprängämnet i verkansdelen kunna tändas redan i eldröret och orsaka en vapensprängning. Den här typen av explosion resulterar i allvarliga skador både för skytten samt folk i dess omgivning.   Med hänsyn till tidigare studier har det varit fokus på kolfiberförstärkt epoxi som är tillverkad av fiberlindning. Syftet var att utreda kravställningar och metoder för provning, som garanterar skyttens och omgivningens säkerhet i utskjutningsfasen av en granat tillverkad av kompositmaterial.   Från förstudien i denna rapport visade sig att matrissprickor och fiberbrott är de vanligaste defekter som uppstår i granathylsan under utskjutningsfasen där den största påverkan är ifrån explosionstrycket. Matrissprickor är de mindre farliga defekter av de som uppstår under intryckning. Diskussion med komposittillverkande företag visade att fiberbrott är en väldigt farlig typ av defekt eftersom fibrerna står för styrkan och brott av fibrer leder till att granathylsan klarar av att utsättas för lägre påfrestningar och kan inte hjälpa till att bygga upp det önskvärda trycket som önskas under utskjutningen.   Två kravspecifikationer utfärdades, en för granathylsan och en annan för detekteringsmetoderna. Dessa två skapades genom egen studie och idéer med hänsyn till hittad information, ifrån telefon- samt email kontakt med experter inom områdena samt med hjälp av personal på Saab Dynamics AB. Några krav som valdes för granathylsan var att den ska vara fullt användbar efter fallskärmsprovning från olika höjder, vibration- och transport tester för att inte få cykliska skador efter en lång transportering samt att alltid ha en fullt isolerad gördel så att inte de heta gaserna från explosivorna tänds redan i eldröret vilket orsakar vapensprängning. Några krav för detekteringsmetoder var att de ska kunna göra mätningar/analyser på djupet, ha hög trovärdighet samt vara portabel.   Eliminering- och beslutsmatriser gjordes för att hitta vilka detekteringsmetoder som skulle bli de slutliga valen i jakten på att finna defekterna i granathylsan. De metoder som inte uppfyllde kriterierna från respektive matris blev eliminerade. Elimineringen utfördes i faserna för konceptgenerering och konceptval. I slutliga valet valdes ett par lämpliga metoder som tillsammans hittar så många defekter som möjligt.   Genom att använda akustisk emission samt shearografi hittades samtliga kritiska defekter plus många andra som inte anses vara kritiska med väldigt hög trovärdighet och upplösning till ett mer acceptabelt pris. Metoderna samverkar väldigt bra med varandra eftersom akustisk emission är bästa metoden att hitta fiberbrott och matrissprickor vilket är vanligt förekommande i utskjutningsfasen. Shearografi har inte samma detekterbarhet på dem två defekterna men de har å andra sidan istället väldigt god detekterbarhet på både volymetriska- och plana defekter.   Slutsatsen är att endast två metoder behövdes för att finna alla defekter vilket blir mer ekonomiskt, tar mindre plats och behöver färre certifierade operatörer jämfört med om man ska ha en detekteringsmetod för att finna respektive defekt.

Quelques sites archéologiques comme Olympie, Stymphalos et Olynthe possèdent respectivement un répertoire faisant l’étude des armes de jet retrouvées durant une série de campagnes de fouilles archéologiques. Parmi ces indexes, figurent fréquemment des pointes de flèche, des balles de fronde et des saurotères (contrepoids de lance ou de javelot) provenant de différentes périodes historiques gréco-romaines. À travers les 20e et 21e siècle de notre ère, des spécialistes comme D. Robinson (1931), A. Snodgrass (1964), H. Baitinger (2001), C. Hagerman (2014) dédièrent une partie de leur expertise pour produire des synthèses sur ces objets jadis négligés. Ainsi, ils parvinrent à créer de grandes encyclopédies commentées composées de projectiles retrouvés en sol grec. À l’aide de ces bases de données, les archéologues militaires sont en mesure d’établir des datations et l’origine prétendue de certains types de projectiles. Jusqu’en 2015, les artéfacts militaires trouvés sur le site archéologique d’Argilos n’avaient jamais fait l’objet d’une étude de synthèse. D’abord, inspiré par de publications semblables, ces projectiles furent soumis à un inventaire sous forme de catalogue. Au total, deux types de balles de fronde en plomb, onze types de pointes de flèche et un type de saurotère furent identifiés. Finalement, ce nouveau contenu fut assujetti à des analyses comparatives avec d’autres sites archéologiques possédant des données similaires. Les conclusions découlant de ces analogies donnèrent naissance à la première typologie des armes de jet argilienne. Certes, les analyses se heurtèrent à certains obstacles, notamment à une compréhension de la quasi-inexistence d'une pointe de flèche typiquement "grecque" et à la confusion systématique quant à la distinction entre un saurotère et une pointe de javelot, voire possiblement un carreau de gastraphétès (une sorte d’arbalète imposante utilisée lors de sièges durant le 4e siècle av. J.-C.). En partie, ceci découle de l'historique d'échanges entre la Grèce et les autres peuples méditerranéens, balkaniques et orientaux. En outre, de nombreuses réformes militaires des périodes archaïque et classique provoquèrent une évolution constante sur les aspects stratégiques et les tactiques militaires. Considérant ces facteurs parmi tant d'autres et le fait qu'Argilos ait été une fondation grecque en territoire thraco-macédonien, la possibilité d'influence "étrangère" devient alors prépondérante sur la typologie des projectiles argiliens publiée dans le présent mémoire. Avec beaucoup d’espoir, nous croyons sans équivoque que ce travail de recherche contribuera grandement non seulement à l’histoire d’Argilos, mais aussi à l’étude des projectiles en Grèce du nord. / Archaeological sites such as Olympia, Stymphalos and Olynthus have complete catalogs that studied projectile-style weaponry found in a series of archaeological excavations. These so-called directories frequently include arrowheads, lead sling bullets and sauroters (spear or javelin counter-weights) from different Greco-Roman periods. Through the 20th and 21th centuries AD, specialists such as D. Robinson (1931), A. Snodgrass (1964), H. Baitinger (2001) and Haggerman (2014) dedicated some of their expertise to produce synthesises of these formerly ignored objects. Thus, they created some of the biggest commented encyclopaedias composed solely of projectiles found on Greek soil. Until 2015, all the weaponry found on the archaeological site of Argilos had never been the subject of a synthesis study. Firstly, inspired by similar studies, the projectiles were inventoried in a catalog format. In total, two types of lead sling bullets, eleven arrowhead types and one sauroter type were identified. Lastly, this new content was subjected to comparative analyses with sites containing similar data. The resulting conclusions from these analyses gave birth to the first Argilian weapon typology. Needless to say, the analyses ran into obstacles. In particular, the comprehension that there is almost no existence of a typical Greek arrowhead type and the systematic confusion when one has to distinguish a sauroter, a javelin head, and possibly a gastrasphetes bolt (a heavy large-sized crossbow used during sieges in the 4th century BC). In part, this stems from the historical exchanges between Greece and other Mediterranean, Balkan and oriental civilizations. Furthermore, many of the archaic and classical military reforms brought about a constant evolution on strategic and tactical matters. Considering these factors, among others, and the fact that Argilos was a Greek colony within a Thraco-macedonian territory, the possibility of foreign influence becomes predominant on the typology published in this present thesis. With much hope, we believe without a doubt that this work of research will contribute not only to the history of Argilos but also to the study of military projectiles in Northern Greece.

High-power microwave, HPM, systems can be used as non-lethal weapons with the ability to destroy or disturb electronics, by damaging internal circuits and inducing high currents. Today microwave sources are being developed with peak powers exceeding 1 GW, one of these devices is the vircator, a narrowband source which is unique to the HPM community. In order to understand and develop microwave sources like the vircator it is necessary to have computer models, as simulations gives an invaluable understanding of the mechanisms involved during operation, saving time and development costs.                                                                  This thesis presents the results from a theoretical analysis and a simulation study using a well known electromagnetic particle-in-cell code, Computer Simulation Technology Particle Studio. The results are then compared to measured data from a HPM system, the Bofors HPM Blackout. The results show that CST PS can be used to design and study the coaxial vircator with good results.

Ces travaux de recherche abordent un problème de défense anti-aérien, usuellement appelé problème d'allocation d'armes à des cibles dans la littérature. L'allocation d'armes à des cibles est un problème bien connu de la recherche opérationnelle militaire qui a rencontré un franc succès parmi la communauté des chercheurs, et qui aujourd'hui encore suscite un large engouement puisque sa propriété démontrée NP-difficile en fait un problème qui reste irrésolu. Que ce soit par des méthodes analytiques ou meta-heuristiques, le problème d'allocation d'armes à des cibles a fait l'objet de nombreuses propositions de résolution. Cependant, il est assez surprenant de voir que la modélisation proposée pour ce problème n'a guère évolué depuis qu'il est apparu pour la première fois dans la littérature en 1950. Cette modélisation peut être considérée comme obsolète aujourd'hui et ne répond plus aux exigences qui accompagnent les technologies modernes. En effet, en 60 ans le champ de bataille a complètement changé, et dans la littérature seulement un nombre limité d'études proposent de prendre en compte ces évolutions. L'étude menée dans cette thèse propose de s'intéresser aux systèmes de Commandes et Contrôles (C2) pour des applications anti-aériennes. Habituellement un système C2 est composé de senseurs, d'un centre d'opérations tactiques et d'un ou plusieurs lanceurs. Les senseurs alimentent le centre d'opérations tactiques à partir des informations qu'ils recueillent, puis, une fois ces informations reçues, le centre d'opérations tactiques va interpréter ces données afin de calculer l'atteignabilité des menaces. Enfin, un plan d'engagement qui comprend l'allocation des munitions disponibles aux cibles et une date de tir sont proposés à un opérateur humain qui aura pour mission de valider cette proposition en totalité ou partiellement, puis va procéder à l'engagement des menaces. Pour remplir cet objectif, une approche innovante et faisant l'objet d'un dépôt de brevet a été développée afin de répondre aux difficultés relatives aux problèmes d'optimisation multi-objectifs. Ensuite, un algorithme d'optimisation continue basé sur la combinaison de l'optimisation par essaim particulaires avec la théorie des jeux évolutionnaires est proposé pour optimiser les dates de tirs. L'allocation optimale, elle, est obtenue en adaptant cette méthode continue au cas discret. La preuve que l'algorithme développé est localement convergent est donnée dans cette thèse. D'autre part, l'aspect temps-réel a également fait l'objet d'une recherche attentive et l'algorithme précédemment cité a été hybridé avec les réseaux de neurones afin d'accélérer le temps de calcul des composants identifiés comme "lourds" en termes de charge de calcul. Enfin, cette étude ne se limite pas à une application de recherche opérationnelle militaire, mais inclut quelques concepts élémentaires de guidage et de navigation pour le calcul d'atteignabilité des menaces. Finalement, cette thèse permet d'identifier que les points suivants doivent faire l'objet d'une attention très particulière afin de développer un outil d'aide à la décision efficace. D'abord, la métrique d'évaluation d'un bon plan d'engagement doit être clairement analysée. Ensuite, le plan d'engagement proposé doit être stable et ne pas proposer de changements soudains qui pourraient perturber l'opérateur. Le troisième point concerne la robustesse de la solution proposée et sa capacité à faire face aux situations les plus compliquées. Quatrièmement, le temps et la charge de calcul sont des contraintes techniques qui ne peuvent pas être outrepassées. Finalement, les exigences posées lors de la préparation de mission et qui dépendent du contexte doivent faire l'objet d'une attention particulière. C'est pourquoi, l'outil d'aide à la décision proposé doit permettre un allègement significatif de la charge de travail de l'opérateur ainsi que la réduction considérable du stress lié à ce contexte / This research investigates a practical air defence problem, usually named Weapon Target Assignment (WTA) in the literature. The WTA problem is a well-known problem of military operation research that encountered a wide success in the research community, but still nowadays since it remains an unsolved problem because of its NP-hardness property. From analytical to heuristic methods, the WTA was deeply investigated and many attempts to solve this problem have been proposed. However, the proposed modelling of this problem is consistent with the 1950's technologies. Thus, the proposed modelling found in the literature can be considered as obsolete and cannot fit the requirement of the current technology advances. Indeed, the battle field dramatically changes over 60 years, and the recent literature proposes only few studies taking into account these amendments. The herein study proposes to investigate a Command & Control system (C2) in air defence applications. Usually a C2 system includes sensors, a Tactical Operation Centre (TOC) and one or more launchers. The sensors provide information about aerial tactical situation to the TOC. This TOC is in charge of evaluating the received information in order to compute the attainability of the targets, then an engagement plan that includes the assignment of the available weapons to the incoming targets and a date to fire for each assignment. This engagement plan is then proposed to one human operator in charge of accepting whole or part of this engagement plan and engage the targets following the received instructions. To achieve this goal, an innovative and patented approach to mitigate the issues related to multi-objective optimisation is proposed. Then, a continuous optimisation algorithm based on the combination of the Particle Swarm Optimisation and the Evolutionary Game Theory was proposed to determine the best dates to fire. The optimal assignment was obtained by adapting the aforementioned algorithm to the discrete case. This thesis also gives the proof that the designed algorithms are locally convergent and intensive benchmarking confirms the developed theory. In order to respect the real-time requirement, it was also devised to use the Neural Networks to lighten the identified burdensome parts of the algorithm and decrease computational time. Not limited to the military operation research field, the herein study reuse some basic concepts of missile guidance and navigation to compute the attainability of the targets. From this thesis, it can be identified that following aspects need to be carefully considered to provide an efficient decision making support to a human operator: First, clearly define what a good engagement plan is. Second, the engagement plan must be steady to avoid high rate changing in the assignments that could significantly disturb the operator. Third, the proposed engagement also must be reliable and robust to face any possible situations. Fourth, the computation time and computation load are technical constraints that cannot be overstepped. Finally, the operational constraints related to the mission context defined during a pre-mission stage must also be taken into account. Therefore, the proposed decision making support must help and significantly reduce the operator's work load in this situation of high stress and sensitive context

Les impacts non transfixiants sur les gilets pare-balles sont responsables de lésions non pénétrantes potentiellement létales, regroupées sous le terme d’effets arrière (Behind Armor Blunt Trauma : BABT). De telles lésions fermées se retrouvent également lors d’impacts thoraciques de projectiles d’Armes à Létalité Réduite cinétiques (ALRc). Afin d’améliorer le pouvoir protecteur des protections balistiques et de mieux maitriser le pouvoir vulnérant des ALRc, il est nécessaire de définir un critère lésionnel permettant de prédire l’importance des lésions en cas de traumatisme thoracique fermé de type balistique. Ce critère se doit d’être bien corrélé à la gravité du traumatisme, et de pouvoir être facilement transposable à l’ensemble des systèmes d’évaluation des protections balistiques et des ALRc. La gravité du traumatisme a été définie ici par le volume de la contusion pulmonaire. L’utilisation de cette valeur nécessitait le recours au modèle animal. Or, nous avons démontré que le thorax du modèle porcin n’offrait pas le même comportement biomécanique lors de l’impact que le thorax de l’adulte jeune. Nous avons donc développé un critère, l’impulsion de pression intrathoracique maximale (PImax), basé sur la mesure de la pression intrathoracique lors de l’impact, et donc indépendant du comportement biomécanique de la paroi thoracique vis-à-vis de ses effets sur le poumon. Ce critère très bien corrélé avec le volume de la contusion pulmonaire, quelque soit le type d’impact thoracique balistique (ALRc ou BABT), a l’avantage de pouvoir être transposable aux autres moyens d’évaluations balistiques tels que les modèles numériques ou mécaniques de thorax, afin de s’affranchir de l’expérimentation animale / When non-penetrating, impacts on bulletproof jackets can lead to potentially lethal blunt injuries known as behind armor blunt trauma (BABT). Impacts of less lethal kinetic weapons (LLKW) can also lead to such injuries. To both improve the protection capabilities of the BPJ and better comprehend the ounding potential of the LLKW, we need to design a wounding criterion to predict the injury severity of ballistic blunt thoracic trauma. In one hand, this criterion has to be well correlated with the severity of the injuries, and in the other hand, it has to be easily used with all the LLKW and BPJ assessment systems in use. First, we defined the pulmonary contusion volume as the severity of the injuries. Studying the pulmonary contusion involves the use of animal experiments. But we demonstrated that the biomechanics of the chest wall are different in animals and young adults. Then, we developed the maximum pressure impulse criterion (PImax). As it is based on the intrathoracic pressure measure during the blunt impact, it is independent from the chest wall behavior. This criterion can be used with the other assessment tools as the numerical simulation mechanical chest surrogates. This can help to reduce the use of animal experiments, which is more and more expensive, heavy and questionable on the ethical aspect

由於蘇聯解體所導致的核擴散，這個世界比起過去更加危險。新的安全威脅源自於俄羅斯核物質、武器與科學家的擴散。另一方面，俄羅斯軍事力量的下降導致俄羅斯提高了核武器在未來戰爭中的作用。俄羅斯國家安全構想與軍事學說的轉變可能升高核戰爭的可能性。在本文中，筆者將探討由俄羅斯所引起的核擴散風險。 / Because of the nuclear proliferation caused by the collapse of USSR, the world is more insecurity than before. The new security threat comes from the spread of Russian nuclear materials, weapons and scientists. On the other hand, the decline of Russian military leads Russia to pay much attention on the use of nuclear weapon in the future warfare. The change of the Russian national security concept and military doctrine may raise the possibility of nuclear war. In the paper, author will study the risk of nuclear proliferation caused by Russia.

學界常以嚇阻理論觀點詮釋解放軍的外在戰略作為，但經由本研究透過嚇阻理論分析檢證的結果，發現事實上中共有其一貫的「威懾戰略」思維模式，並且為解放軍核心戰略「積極防禦」的依據，此戰略思維內涵承襲中國傳統戰略文化與原則，其實際意義和中共學界定義的威懾戰略不同。「威懾戰略」思維也是解放軍在建構與運用戰略武力時的根本依循原則，而非根據嚇阻理論產生的嚇阻戰略，因此以嚇阻戰略的標準來檢驗與分析解放軍戰略作為，將不能得到正確解答。 解放軍從早期建構核戰略武力開始，即是出自於現實戰略利益考量，並不只是如中共官方所稱，要打破大國核壟斷與追求徹底消滅核武器等理想性、道德化說詞；解放軍隱晦的「不首先使用」核武原則，更是「威懾戰略」思考下，避免引起強國攻擊，以換取戰略武力發展空間的一項策略。隨著國際戰略局勢以及中共安全認知轉變，在美國發展彈道飛彈防禦體系以及調整核武戰略的情況下，解放軍將會持續建構包含非核戰略武力在內的戰略打擊力量，但在核戰略武力建構方面將會有所節制，置重點於技術提升和多元發展，以確保解放軍能在不改變既有原則的基礎上，更加彈性靈活運用各式戰略武力，一方面維持威嚇的效果，另一方面也能在必要時配合「威懾戰略」動用武力，達成中共所賦予解放軍的任務。 關鍵詞：中共軍事、嚇阻理論、嚇阻戰略、威懾戰略、戰略武力、不首先使用 / Researchers often apply the concept of Deterrence Theory to explain the outward strategic actions of People’s Liberation Army (PLA). However, through comprehensive analyses and examinations of Deterrence Theory, the research result indicated that PLA has created its own strategic logic of “Threat and Deterrent Strategy” which became the foundation of PLA’s core military strategy--Active Defense. In addition, this kind of strategic thinking which can be considered as the heritage of traditional Chinese military culture and principle is significantly different from the concept and measures of Deterrence Theory commonly agreed by scholars. “Threat and Deterrent Strategy” also became the foundation of PLA’s main military strategy “Active Defense”. “Threat and Deterrence Strategy” is PLA’s principle of building and operating its strategic weapon. Applying the concept of Deterrence Theory to explain PLA’s military actions may be inappropriate and result in misunderstanding because the concept and application of “Threat and Deterrence Strategy” are different from Deterrence Theory. Even though China official claimed that the goal of obtaining nuclear power is based on an ideal and proper purpose such as to break the exclusive development of nuclear weapon by certain countries and abolish nuclear weapon eventually, the reason why PLA developed nuclear weapon is because of the military advantages and strategic interests from obtaining nuclear power. PLA announced its “no-first-use” principle of using nuclear weapon without notifying the proviso is a typical example of playing “Threat and Deterrence Strategy” so that China can develop its strategic weapon without creating opposition from other countries. Along the strategic interactions among countries, the changing attitude toward national security in China, the development of Ballistic Missile Defense System in U.S, and the adjustment of using nuclear weapon and its strategy, PLA will keep improving its strategic weapon, including nuclear and non-nuclear. However, PLA will not speed up its development of nuclear weapon. Instead, PLA will emphasize more on improving the capacity and variety of its strategic weapon so that PLA can utilize all kinds of strategic weapon flexibly and ingeniously. On the one hand, improving military strength can ensure the effectiveness of deterrence; on the other hand, cooperating “Threat and Deterrence Strategy” and military actions can help PLA to complete the mission from China. Keywords: China Military, Deterrence Theory, Deterrence Strategic, Threat and Deterrence Strategy, Strategic Weapon, No first use