A presente pesquisa propôs o desenvolvimento e a aplicação de um web-GIS interativo alimentado por usuários visando ao mapeamento do risco de inundações por meio da coleta de dados de ameaça, exposição e vulnerabilidade percebidos pela população. Foi também estimado o risco de inundação a partir de uma expressão de indicadores propostos por Mendiondo (2008). As duas metodologias foram aplicadas em sub-bacias urbanas da cidade de São Carlos. Foram realizadas entrevistas com a população da cidade para coletar dados de percepção de risco, enquanto se desenvolvia o web-GIS, para o qual, uma vez terminado, foram transferidos os referidos dados online. O portal se mostrou uma ferramenta de uso simples e confiável. As estimativas de risco calculadas por meio da expressão citada levaram a concluir que as sub-bacias com maior risco de inundação são as dos córregos Tijuco Preto e Medeiros. Entretanto, o risco estimado a partir da análise de percepção evidenciou as sub-bacias Gregório e Santa Maria Madalena como as de maior risco de inundação. As duas ferramentas apresentaram-se valiosas e econômicas para estimativa de risco de inundação em ambiente urbano, podendo constituir ótimos sistemas de apoio à decisão. O webGIS, em particular, é potencialmente útil para informar aos moradores sobre quais são as áreas de risco de inundação na cidade. / This dissertation presents the development and application of an interactive web-GIS in which internet users map flood risk collaboratively by filling up a geotagged form with questions on flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Flood risk was also assessed through the use of a set of environmental risk indicators proposed by Mendiondo (2008). The two methodologies were applied to six urban watersheds of the city of São Carlos (State of São Paulo, Brazil). Interviews including questions asked on the web-GIS were carried out in city streets while the portal was being developed. Thus perceived risk data gathered from the interviews was later transferred online onto the web-GIS. The web-GIS proved to be an easy to use and intuitive tool. According to the results of risk calculation obtained with the indicators expression the watersheds with higher flood risk were the Tijuco Preto and Medeiros, which were also the ones with smallest area and higher population density. The results of perceived risk, which was assessed through the analysis of the interviews data, gave evidence that Gregorio and Santa Maria Madalena where the watersheds at higher risk. These watersheds are the two which experience a higher rate of occurrence on a year basis. The two approaches for assessing risk proved to be consistent and relatively inexpensive for the estimate of flood risk in urban areas, with the potential of representing valid decision support systems. The webGIS is a particularly interesting solution as a medium of information to inhabitants on the level of risk to which they are exposed.

Les désastres naturels ont des conséquences particulièrement dévastatrices dans les pays en développement où les individus sont hautement vulnérables et les institutions inefficaces. Néanmoins, leurs impacts sur le bien être des ménages et le rôle des autorités publiques restent encore mal compris. En outre, alors que la plupart des études se focalisent sur le risque climatique, les désastres géologiques, et les éruptions volcaniques en particulier, restent peu étudiés. Pourtant, même si elles représentent une fraction marginale des désastres naturels au niveau mondial, les éruptions volcaniques sont une menace majeure dans certains pays tels que l’Indonésie ou l’Equateur. La présente thèse tente donc de contribuer à la littérature à travers trois essais empiriques traitant de l’effet à long terme du risque volcanique sur l’accumulation de capital des ménages, de l’impact d’une éruption sur le capital social ainsi que du rôle des autorités publiques dans les décisions de migration. / Natural disasters have particularly devastating consequences in developing countries where people are highly vulnerable and institutions remain inefficient. Nevertheless, their impacts on households’ well-being and the role of public authorities are, yet, not fully understood. In addition, while most studies focus on climatic risk, geological disasters, and volcanic eruptions in particular, are clearly understudied. However, despite representing a marginal share of natural disasters at the global level, volcanic eruptions are a major threat in some countries, such as Indonesia or Ecuador. The present dissertation tries to contribute to the literature by investigating the long-term effect of volcanic hazard on farmers’ capital accumulation, the impact of an eruption on social capital, as well as the potential mitigating role of public authorities on migration decisions.

十八世紀的工業發展富裕了人類的物質生活，生態環境卻也逐遭破壞 ；人們因科技文明引發的現代風險的多樣性、全球性、不易衡量與不易預 測性，遂將傳統注重資源分配的「階級社會」帶領到新的注重風險如何在 社會中平等並合法分配的「風險社會」(Risk society) (Beck,1992)，社 會風險概念乃應運而生。從社會文明演進來看，現代風險與過去風險在本 質上有著極大差異，過去風險多以自然災害的威脅為主，而現代風險則以 科技進步帶來的威亦即公害佔多數，綜言之為風險的不確定性、風險承擔 的不公平性、影響的遲延性與風險產生的社會妥當性。也因如此風險管理 則具相當的「利益衡量」與「政策決擇」色彩，風險溝通遂乃成為有效風 險管理的主要因素，成為綜合其他風險議題如風險認知、風險評估、風險 管理等的橋樑。風險溝通與其他溝通議題的最大差別，前者尤強調人文層 面因素重於科學分析結果。建立一個合理可接受的風險水準與風險認知息 息相關，專家的科學分析結果固然重要，民眾對風險的了解卻多以一般知 識與過去生活經驗認知，再加上現代風險多涉及高度的科技性，專業術語 常令民眾產生距離與不信任感，在公害問題上糾紛多因而產生。風險溝通 除了儘量降低衝突外，更積極地為建立風險的正確認知，加強自我防禦機 能，故公共介入、民眾的參與對於事前與事後溝通的成效，可避免糾紛爭 端的發生。 從７０年代起公害糾紛屢見不鮮，抗議者手段皆多由緩和 後因意見得不到適切回應始引發衝突性高的行動；抗爭者與被抗議者亦多 有組織化趨勢；不管是「事前預防型」或「事後補救型」活動，政府的溝 通方式多仍停留在技術層面單向說服性的宣導亦多為被動；反觀國外對溝 通的努力較為積極，坦誠公開的溝通態度，重視一致、簡明的訊息揭露， 並考慮到居民心理壓力的疏解，強調風險溝通的地方時效性，這是國內糾 紛處理不足之處。由於糾紛事件中多有金錢賠償、健康檢查之訴求，故糾 紛處理與公害賠償制度在事後溝通上就佔極重要角色。日本的公害糾處理 與健康受害補償制度是除了民事訟訴外另闢之行政救濟管道，為衝突解決 與公害損害補償提供了訊速有效的溝通管道。我國有關公害糾紛處理已於 ８２年二月完成立法，至於公害補償卻散見於法令中，盼儘快建立污染者 付費原則、賠償基金的設立及加強公害保險功能，健全風險溝通的角色。

The role of trust in social, economic, political, and organizational relations is a research topic that has received much attention during the last decade. Trust has been considered a key variable in various contexts, although it should be noted that many theorists pay little attention to empirically testing their arguments about the importance of trust. It is in the present thesis examined whether trust is an important variable in the context of risk policy.This question was addressed from different perspectives in three empirical studies, which were based on extensive survey data. The first article concerned the case of energy policy and the relationship between people’s perceptions of nuclear risks and their attitudes towards various aspects of energy policy was examined. In the second article it was studied whether trust was an important predictor of perceived risk within and across four European countries. Finally, in the third article, determinants of public trust in organizations were studied. An important finding in the thesis was that determinants of trust varied depending on the organization studied. It was also found that trust was a significant predictor of perceived risk, but the relationship was not very strong. It was suggested that the overall policy implications for risk management should be that there are limits to the possibilities to increase the level of trustworthiness and build public trust. An organization could make strong efforts to build an image of being a competent, open, fair, and credible organization, but still not gain the necessary degree of trust, because public perceptions can be based on certain organizational characteristics that are very fundamental and not easily changed. Furthermore, even if an organization succeeds in building a high degree of public trust, it was found in the thesis that it is possible to trust those responsible for risk management to be very competent and honest, yet perceive risks as high. A number of possible causes for this interesting finding are presented in the thesis. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2003</p>

A system of systems (SoS) framework is proposed for policy design that takes into account the value systems of multiple participants, harnesses the complexity of strategic interactions among participants, and confronts the risks and uncertainties present in participants’ decision making. SoS thinking provides an integrative and adaptive mindset, which is needed to tackle policy challenges characterized by conflict, complexity, and uncertainty. With the aim of putting SoS thinking into practice, operational methods and tools are presented herein. Specifically, SoS engineering methodologies to create value system models, agent-based models of competitive and cooperative behaviour under conflict, and risk management models are developed and integrated into the framework. The proposed structure, methods and tools can be utilized to organize policy design discourse. Communication among participants involved in the policy discussion is structured around SoS models, which are used to integrate multiple perspectives of a system and to test the effectiveness of policies in achieving desirable outcomes under varying conditions. In order to demonstrate the proposed methods and tools that have been developed to enliven policy design discourse, a theoretical common-pool resources dilemma is utilized. The generic application illustrates the methodology of constructing ordinal preferences from values. Also, it is used to validate the agent-based modeling and simulation platform as a tool to investigate strategic interactions among participants and harness the potential to influence and enable participants to achieve desirable outcomes. A real-world common pool resources dilemma in the provisioning and security considerations of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore is examined and employed as a case study for applying strategic conflict models in risk management. Overall, this thesis advances the theory and application of SoS engineering and focuses on understanding value systems, handling complexity in terms of conflict dynamics, and finally, enhancing risk management.

A system of systems (SoS) framework is proposed for policy design that takes into account the value systems of multiple participants, harnesses the complexity of strategic interactions among participants, and confronts the risks and uncertainties present in participants’ decision making. SoS thinking provides an integrative and adaptive mindset, which is needed to tackle policy challenges characterized by conflict, complexity, and uncertainty. With the aim of putting SoS thinking into practice, operational methods and tools are presented herein. Specifically, SoS engineering methodologies to create value system models, agent-based models of competitive and cooperative behaviour under conflict, and risk management models are developed and integrated into the framework. The proposed structure, methods and tools can be utilized to organize policy design discourse. Communication among participants involved in the policy discussion is structured around SoS models, which are used to integrate multiple perspectives of a system and to test the effectiveness of policies in achieving desirable outcomes under varying conditions. In order to demonstrate the proposed methods and tools that have been developed to enliven policy design discourse, a theoretical common-pool resources dilemma is utilized. The generic application illustrates the methodology of constructing ordinal preferences from values. Also, it is used to validate the agent-based modeling and simulation platform as a tool to investigate strategic interactions among participants and harness the potential to influence and enable participants to achieve desirable outcomes. A real-world common pool resources dilemma in the provisioning and security considerations of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore is examined and employed as a case study for applying strategic conflict models in risk management. Overall, this thesis advances the theory and application of SoS engineering and focuses on understanding value systems, handling complexity in terms of conflict dynamics, and finally, enhancing risk management.

L‟utilité de la théorie de la dissuasion est régulièrement remise en question pour expliquer la relation entre les peines et la criminalité puisque les propriétés objectives de la peine ne semblent pas affecter les taux de criminalité, les perceptions que s‟en font les individus et la récidive des délinquants. Trois limites conceptuelles des auteurs qui remettent en question la dissuasion sont soulevées. Premièrement, les unités spatiales utilisées sont des territoires sur lesquels plusieurs corps policiers sont en fonction. Il y a donc peu de chances que tous les citoyens présents soient exposés au même message pénal. Deuxièmement, les chercheurs ont mesuré le risque objectif d‟être arrêté à l‟aide d‟un ratio entre le nombre d‟arrestations et le nombre de crimes rapportés. Cette conceptualisation est problématique puisque les résultats d‟autres études suggèrent que les citoyens ont peu de connaissances des propriétés objectives et qu‟il serait, ainsi, intéressant de se référer aux stimuli dissuasifs pour conceptualiser la notion de risques. Troisièmement, pour plusieurs chercheurs, la délinquance est considérée comme une activité pour laquelle les délits impunis découlent du hasard. Pourtant, les délinquants utilisent fréquemment des stratégies pour éviter les autorités policières. Ils sont donc proactifs dans leur impunité. De ces limites découlent quatre propositions : 1) afin de détecter les réels effets des propriétés de la peine sur la criminalité, les territoires utilisés dans les études doivent représenter des juridictions sur lesquelles un seul corps policier opère; 2) afin de détecter les réels effets des propriétés de la peine sur la criminalité, les études doivent être effectuées avec des données provenant d‟une juridiction dans laquelle les activités de répression sont augmentées significativement par rapport à leur seuil antérieur et maintenue sur une période de temps suffisamment longue; 3) les stimuli dissuasifs observés doivent être considérés comme des expériences vicariantes ; 4) l‟impunité doit être définie comme étant une expérience recherchée par les délinquants. Deux études ont été réalisées dans le cadre de cette thèse. D‟abord, une étude a été réalisée à l‟aide de données issues des rapports policiers de collisions et des constats d‟infraction rendus. Les résultats montrent que l‟augmentation de la répression policière ii sur le territoire du Service de Police de la Ville de Montréal a fait diminuer le nombre de collisions. Au même moment, les collisions sont demeurées stables sur le territoire desservis par le Service de police de la Ville de Québec. Dans un deuxième temps, une étude perceptuelle a été réalisée avec un échantillon d‟étudiants universitaires. Les résultats démontrent des effets mitigés des stimuli dissuasifs sur les perceptions que se font les individus de leurs risques d‟être arrêté et sur leurs comportements délinquants. Chez les moins délinquants, les stimuli dissuasifs font augmenter la perception que les délinquants se font de leurs risques. Par contre, les plus motivés à commettre des délits de la route développent des stratégies en réaction aux opérations policières plutôt que d‟en craindre les représailles. Ces tactiques d‟évitement n‟assurent pas une impunité totale, ni une perception moins élevée des risques de recevoir une contravention, mais elles retardent le moment où le délinquant sera confronté à la punition. / Deterrence theory has been rightfully challenged when changes in punishment probability or severity had no impact on crime rates, recidivism or risks' perception. We suggest that these unconclusive results are, in large part, caused by theoretical and conceptual flaws. First, changes in objective properties of punishment are assumed to be equally perceived across multiple spatial units or police jurisdictions. We have reason to believe that this is rarely the case. Second, the objective risks of being arrested are generally measured with a ratio between the number of arrests and the number of crimes reported. This conceptualization is problematic because numerous researchers found that people have little knowledge of these objective properties. Third, deterrence research have limited interest for adaptative strategies used by offenders to counteract the perceived increase in punishment severity or certainty. We believe that offenders' actively seek and adopt these avoidance tactics. Four propositions are developed to adress thoses limits: 1) to detect the potential local or micro effects of punishment on crime, different police jurisdictions are analysed separatly; 2) to detect the potential effects of punishment on crime, studies should be made only in jurisdictions where enforcement levels are objectively increasing; 3) observed deterrent stimuli should be regarded as vicarious experiences; 4) impunity must be viewed as an actively seeked experience. Two studies were conducted as part of this thesis. Using reports of crashes and statements of offense reports from the Montreal police traffic unit, the first study found that a sharp increase in the level of police activities had significant impact on the number of collisions. Over the same period, data from the second largest city in the province of Québec (the control area), showed no noticeable increase in punishment probility and consequently, no significant impact on collisions. The second study was based on the perception of risks and patterns of road delinquency for a sample of university students with a driver license. Results show distinctive effects of deterrence stimuli for drivers with different delinquency habits. For conformists drivers, the iv deterrent stimuli increase the perception of risk but had no impact on their (already low) levels of road delinquency. For the most motivated traffic offenders however, deterrence stimuli seem to motivate the use and diversity of arrest avoidance techniques that circumvent any increase in their perception of risks. These avoidance tactics do not provide total impunity but efficiently decrease punishment probabilities for those willing to maintain the same offending patterns.

本研究旨在探討利己及利他價值觀如何影響大眾環境風險認知及政策支持，並進一步探討其影響是否受到風險規模、文化取向、及國家發展程度之影響。資料來源為世界價值觀調查(World Value Survey)第五波資料，以Schwartz的「人類價值觀理論」為理論基礎，測量個人利己及利他價值觀，並依風險規模將環境風險認知分為全球性及地區性。統計方法使用層級迴歸，同時檢驗國家層級變項(文化取向及發展程度)對個人層級變項之跨層級調節效果。研究結果顯示大眾對環境風險的感知及反應，受到其價值觀的影響，但針對不同規模的風險議題，在不同文化取向及發展程度的國家，其影響有顯著不同。 / Environmental issues have received much public and media attention abroad and at home. With the increased environmental awareness, there is a strong call for relevant policies and regulations aimed at sustainable development. To ensure sufficient public support, it is crucial to develop a fuller understanding of factors and processes underlying people’s willingness to help protect the environment when making decisions as consumers and citizens. This study aims to predict people’s environmental risk perception and policy support as a function of their values. Specifically, Schwartz’s self-transcendence and self-enhancement value clusters will be examined as determinants to understand why few people choose to make collectively beneficial decisions. Three extensions were made. First, instead of focusing on low-cost lifestyle changes, this study examined policy support that requires substantial personal costs. Second, global and local environmental risk perceptions are treated as two qualitatively different constructs according to their geographical scales. Finally, this study moves beyond an individualistic approach, incorporating country-level forces into the model. Information about the individuals are based on variables measured in the World Value Survey (2005), while cultural orientations and levels of development are measured by the Schwartz Value Survey (2005) and the Human Development Index (2005) respectively. Hierarchical regression are employed, with the nature of interaction being revealed by plotting techniques. The results suggested that perception and responses to environmental risks reflect their most basic value priorities and life goals. Consequently, environmental persuasive messages are most effective when intended behaviors are framed as fulfilling important life goals. However, the effects of person-level constructs greatly vary with social contexts and issue scales, suggesting that different strategies are preferred when dealing with risks associated with different geographical frame. Finally, cultural orientations and levels of development will influence the way members of a society respond to environmental threats. Practical implications for environmental risk communication are proposed and discussed.

本研究欲瞭解在模擬招募情境中，兩個薪資特徵-「變動薪資比例」 與「加薪型態」，分別對組織吸引力之影響，並探討此兩組關係中「風險 知覺」的中介效果與「性格變項（核心自我評價）」的調節效果。本研究 採2x2 受試者間之實驗設計，所操弄的二個獨變項為：1.變動薪資比例 （高、低）；2.加薪型態（高機率低加薪、低機率高加薪），依變項為整 體「組織吸引力」及其三個向度（組織正向情感、雇主評價、求職行動 意圖）。 本研究之受試者為139 位大學應屆畢業生，研究結果顯示：「變動薪 資比例」越高，受試者感受的「風險知覺」越高；但「加薪型態」與受 試者的「風險知覺」無顯著關係。當受試者的「風險知覺」較高時，其 組織正向情感、雇主評價則較低；然而，變動薪資比例、加薪型態與組 織吸引力無顯著關係。雖然核心自我評價並沒有調節「變動薪資比例」 或「加薪型態」與組織吸引力的關係；可是核心自我評價卻調節「風險 知覺」與整體組織吸引力與其二個子向度（組織正向情感、求職行動意 圖）的關係。 研究者分別就結果加以討論，提出可能的解釋，並說明本研究之限 制與貢獻。 / This paper presents an experimental investigation of the influences of type of variable pay ratio and type of pay increases on overall organizational attraction and its three dimensions: affection, intentions toward the company and company prestige. A 2x2 between subjects design was used. Two independent variables were types of variable pay ratio (high/ low) and types of pay increases (high probability, small pay increases/ low probability, large pay increases). The dependent variable was organizational attraction. Risk perception and core self-evaluation were mediating and moderating variable, respectively. The sample comprised 139 college students approaching graduation. The results demonstrated that higher variable pay ratio caused higher risk perception but type of pay increases did not. Higher risk perception caused lower affection, company prestige; however, type of variable pay ratio and type of pay increases did not. Core self-evaluation did not mediate the relationship between type of variable pay ratio and risk perception, but it mediated the relationship between risk perception and overall organizational attraction and its two of three dimensions (affection, intentions toward the company). Based on the results, alternative explanation, limits, and implications were discussed.

Den här undersökningen utgår från teorier om riskperception och Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Syftet med studien var att, med utgångspunkt i teorier om riskperception och Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), undersöka individers riskperception och säkerhetsbeteende gentemot trafikolyckor. Undersökningen ville också studera om riskperceptionen och säkerhetsbeteendet är varierar beroende på vem som riskeras att utsättas för risken och vem som ska utföra ett visst beteende. Vidare kopplas det till bakgrundsvariabler som kön och tidigare erfarenheter. Studien utfördes i svensk kontext. Metoden var av kvantitativ ansats och datainsamlingsmetod var enkätstudier. Enkäten var konstruerad utifrån teorierna och undersökningen syfte. Enkäten spreds på Facebook och hade ett bekvämlighetsurval. Totalt svarade 102 personer på enkäten. Studien kom fram till att tidigare erfarenheter har en mycket liten inverkan på individens riskperception av trafikolyckor, både vad gäller risken för individen personligen men också risken för människor i allmänhet. Kön däremot påverkar individens riskperception i högre grad. En annan slutsats var att tidigare erfarenheter har mycket liten påverkan på människors säkerhetsbeteende, både för individens eget beteende men också för individens benägenhet att uppmana människor i allmänhet att bete sig på ett visst sätt. Vidare visade det sig att kön har större påverkan på säkerhetsbeteendet, både vad gäller individen eget beteende men också individens tendens att uppmana människor i allmänhet. En sista upptäckt var att studien fann att riskperception och beteende inte är oberoende av varandra där den ena påverkas av den andra utan snarare är de beroende av och påverkar varandra.  En notis är att undersökning fann att lagar kan skapa ett medvetet säkerhetsarbete. Det innebär att den nya lagen om mobilanvändning vid bilkörning i Sverige är rätt väg att gå för att skapa ett säkert beteende. / This study is based on theories of risk perception and Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). The purpose of the study was to investigate individuals' risk perception and safety behavior in relation to traffic accidents, based on theories of risk perception and Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). The survey also wanted to study whether risk perception and safety behavior vary depending on who is at risk of being exposed to the risk and who should perform a certain behavior. Furthermore, it is linked to background variables like gender and previous experiences. The study was conducted in Swedish context. The method was quantitative and data method was questionnaire. The survey was based on the theories and the investigation purpose. Furthermore, the survey was spread on Facebook and had a comfort check. In total, 102 people answered the questionnaire. The study found that past experience has a very small impact on individuals' risk perception of traffic accidents, both in terms of the individual's risk but also the risk for people in general. Gender, on the other hand, affects the individual's risk perception to a greater extent. Research also found that previous experiences have a very small impact on the safety behavior of individuals, both in terms of the risk of the individual's own behavior but also regarding the individual's requests for people in general. Furthermore, it has been shown that gender has an influence on safety behavior, both regarding the risk of the individual's own behavior, but also regarding the individual's requests for people in general. Finally, the study found that risk perception and behavior are not independent of each other where one is influenced by the other, but rather they depend on and affect each other. One note is that the study showed that laws can create a conscious security work. This means that the new law on mobile use when driving in Sweden is the right way to go to manifest safe behavior.