由於誤差與人口數成反比，資料多寡影響統計分析的穩定性及可靠性，因此常用於推估大區域人口的方法，往往無法直接套用至縣市及其以下層級，尤其當小區域內部地理、社會或經濟的異質性偏高時，人口推估將更為棘手。本文以兩個面向對臺灣小區域人口進行探討：其一、臺灣人口結構漸趨老化，勢必牽動政府政策與資源分配，且臺灣各縣市的人口老化速度不一，有必要針對各地特性發展適當的小區域人口推估方法；其二、因為壽命延長，全球皆面臨長壽風險(Longevity Risk)的挑戰，包括政府退休金制度規劃、壽險保費釐定等，由於臺灣各地死亡率變化不盡相同，發展小區域死亡率模型也是迫切課題。 小區域推估面臨的問題大致可歸納為四個方向：「資料品質」、「地區人數」、「資料年數」與「推估年數」，資料品質有賴資料庫與制度的建立，關於後三個問題，本文引進修勻(Smoothing, Graduation)等方法來提高小區域推估及小區域死亡模型的穩定性。人口推估方面結合修勻與區塊拔靴法(Block Bootstrap)，死亡率模型的建構則將修勻加入Lee-Carter與Age-Period-Cohort模型。由於小區域人口數較少，本文透過標準死亡比(Standard Mortality Ratio)及大區域與小區域間的連貫(Coherence)，將大區域的訊息加入小區域，降低因為地區人數較少引起的震盪。 小區域推估通常可用的資料時間較短，未來推估結果的震盪也較大，本文針對需要過去幾年資料，以及未來可推估年數等因素進行研究，希冀結果可提供臺灣各地方政府的推估參考。研究發現，參考大區域訊息有穩定推估的效果，修勻有助於降低推估誤差；另外，在小區域推估中，如有過去十五年資料可獲得較可靠的推估結果，而未來推估年數盡量不超過二十年，若地區人數過少則建議合併其他區域增加資料量後再行推估；先經過修勻而得出的死亡率模型，其效果和較為複雜的連貫模型修正相當。 / The population size plays a very important role in statistical estimation, and it is difficult to derive a reliable estimation for small areas. The estimation is even more difficult if the geographic and social attributes within the small areas vary widely. However, although the population aging and longevity risk are common phenomenon in the world, the problem is not the same for different countries. The aim of this study is to explore the population projection and mortality models for small areas, with the consideration of the small area’s distinguishing characteristic. The difficulties for small area population projection can be attributed into four directions: data quality, population size, number of base years, and projection horizon. The data quality is beyond the discussion of this study and the main focus shall be laid on the other three issues. The smoothing methods and coherent models will be applied to improve the stability and accuracy of small area estimation. In the study, the block bootstrap and the smoothing methods are combined to project the population to the small areas in Taiwan. Besides, the Lee-Cater and the age-period-cohort model are extended by the smoothing and coherent methods. We found that the smoothing methods can reduce the fluctuation of estimation and projection in general, and the improvement is especially noticeable for areas with smaller population sizes. To obtain a reliable population projection for small areas, we suggest using at least fifteen-year of historical data for projection and a projection horizon not more than twenty years. Also, for developing mortality models for small areas, we found that the smoothing methods have similar effects than those methods using more complicated models, such as the coherent models.

關鍵詞：非法移民、非法外來人口、收容、非刑事拘禁、人身自由、家庭權、平等權、法官保留、正當法律程序、異議、追究、提審 近年來，我國隨著人權國際化的發展，特別是在兩公約施行法公布之後，非法外來人口的收容問題成為熱門的人權議題之ㄧ，因此，引發作者研究的動機。 由於我國國情特殊，外來人口並不限於「外國人」或「無國籍人」，尚包含「無戶籍國民」、「大陸地區人民」、「香港居民」與「澳門居民」等類人士；次查，該等外來人口來臺，未必都有「移民」的意圖，為周延起見，因此，本文將「非法移民」一詞改稱為「非法外來人口」。 經查目前我國非法外來人口以「外國人」與「大陸地區人民」居多，故本文的研究對象乃聚焦於該兩種人士。另外，本文將收容對象限縮於「已入境」且「違反移民法規」的非法外來人口，並將「收容」定義為「主管機關為達成遣返任務，於遣返前，將非法外來人口暫時留置於收容處所的行政行為」，因此，非法外來人口收容之法律性質，為行政處分，屬遣返非法外來人口前之暫時性行政保全措施，不具裁罰性，故非屬行政罰，當然，更非屬刑事處分，自應與刑事訴訟法之「羈押」有所區別。 本論文計分「緒論」、「收容制度之外國借鏡」、「我國收容制度」、「受收容人基本權之保障與衝突」、「收容實務現況及其困境」、「我國收容在合憲性之探討」、「收容與行政救濟」及「結論與建議」等八章。 首先，由美、日及其他世界主要國家對於非法移民的收容制度觀察，發現大多數國家對於非法移民之收容並未採行「法官保留」制度，各國對於收容期限的規定也不一致，而隨著非法移民的日漸增多，近年各國對於非法移民的防杜、查緝與管理，亦較以前積極且嚴格。 我國收容制度主要分為對外國人（含一般外國人與外籍勞工）與對大陸地區人民兩大類，分別由入出國及移民法第38條、就業服務法第68條第4項及臺灣地區與大陸地區人民關係條例（以下簡稱兩岸條例）第18條規範。就外國人與大陸地區人民收容制度之比較發現，二者其實大同小異。有關收容處分機關、法律性質、期間、處分方式、收容處所、對於已取得居留許可且具備一定要件之受處分人遣返前得召開審查會審查、給予當事人陳述意見之機會以及在收容處所內之處遇均相同；主要差異在於「收容要件」、「異議程序之有無」、「折抵刑期或罰金額數之程序」、「驅逐出國（強制出境）前，應否先經司法機關之同意」等程序，此外，大陸地區人民之強制出境，因二十年來，兩岸依循金門協議機制定期運作，尚未發生無法遣返問題，故兩岸條例並無類似外國人得因無法遣返而廢止收容處分之規範。 基本權利的保障，應遵守「層級化法律保留原則」與「重要性理論」，而法益衝突問題，則應依人權調整原理處理。受收容人之基本權利保障與法益衝突，亦應遵守前述法理加以處理，本文爰以受收容人之人身自由、家庭權與平等權三面向加以探討。 繼之，由收容相關處理流程、近4年外國籍與大陸籍受收容人之人數與平均收容天數、外國籍涉案與未涉案人數與比例、收容天數的比較等統計數據，呈現收容實務的現況，並簡要敘述收容行政所面臨的困境及主管機關移民署所做的具體改善措施（包含研擬入出國及移民法修正草案等）。 有關收容的合憲性，分為「法官保留與受收容人之人身自由」、「令從事勞務與工作權保障」、「收容期間與明確性原則」、「刑期折抵與羈押之錯置」、「概括條款之濫用」與「刑事收容之新構思」六方面論述，研究結果發現，現行收容相關規定之合憲性與適法性，尚無疑義。惟查，具體個案執行上，對於涉及刑案之受收容人的「延長收容」，發現有單純僅為順應司法機關犯罪偵審需要而為，並未嚴格審視收容是否具備「保全遣返必要性」之前提要件，與立法目的尚屬有間，恐有違反比例原則之虞。次查，現行規定中，「令從事勞務」一詞，容易引人誤解有侵害工作權之虞，且不符實務現況；而「收容天數得刑期折抵」的權宜措施，不但不能消除「以收容代替羈押」有侵害人權的疑慮，反而，更混淆了收容的法律性質，也讓司法機關有藉口將涉及刑案之非法外來人口「責付」行政機關「收容」，使問題更形嚴重；至於入出國及移民法第38條第1項第4款之概括規定，也容易使收容變相成為刑事追訴之保全機制。凡此種種，均待澈底檢討。 關於非法外來人口收容的行政救濟方面，本文則分別就「異議」、「訴願」、「行政訴訟」、「國家賠償」、「提審」與「追究」等面向觀察，研究發現受收容人提起行政救濟的案例不多，而就實務案例觀察，現行救濟程序對於受收容人之權益保障，確實有緩不濟急的現象發生，亟待改善。 本文對於現行非法外來人口收容法制，歸結如下： 一、非法外來人口收容，未採「法官保留」原則，並未違反憲法第八條之規定，其合憲性尚無疑慮。 二、現行非法外來人口收容法制，符合「公民與政治權利國際公約」相關規定，亦無適法性問題。 三、程序權保障部分 現行非法外來人口收容法制中，有關外國人與大陸地區人民之程序權保障規定未盡一致，且欠缺公正第三人介入審查之強制機制，應加以改善。 四、欠缺事後即時司法審查機制 非法外來人口收容，性質上屬「非刑事拘禁」，受收容人除得依憲法第8條第4項規定向法院聲請「追究」外，亦得依公民與政治權利國際公約第13條規定聲請法院「提審」，惟查，現行提審法、行政訴訟法、法院組織法等法規尚欠缺相關配套機制，有賴司法機關正視並積極建置。 五、刑事程序與行政程序應有所區隔 現行規定，將偵審中或待服刑之犯罪嫌疑人或刑事被告，納入得收容之對象，而遣返刑案被告前，又必須得到司法機關之同意，而收容延長之次數亦未明文限制，收容日數並得折抵刑期，不但再再混淆收容之法律性質，也是遭來「以收容代替羈押」批評的導火線。為切合收容之立法目的，提升人權保障，本文認為對於涉刑案之非法外來人口，應依「先刑事後行政」原則辦理，收容對象應限縮為單純待遣返之非法外來人口。 六、得命服勞役之規定，未切合實務現況，且容易引發侵害人權之誤解，應配合兩公約施行法之公布施行，儘速刪除之。 七、非法外勞收容之法源依據亟待修正 經查就業服務法迄未配合移民署之成立而加以修正，為符法制，減少疑義，勞政與立法機關應積極推動修法事宜。 至於本文對於非法外來人口收容法制之主要建議如下： 一、對於移民法、兩岸條例之修正建議 （一）收容對象應修正為以「單純等待遣返之非法外來人口」為限，刪除司法機關得將涉及刑案且尚待偵審之非法外來人口「責付」移民署收容之規定。 （二）刪除「遣返前應經司法機關同意」之規定。 （三）刪除「收容日數得折抵刑期或罰金」之規定。 （四）俟司法院建置「追究」或「提審」等事後即時司法審查機制後，刪除「收容異議制度」。 （五）於入出國及移民法修正草案中，增列大陸地區人民與港澳居民得「準用」外國人收容相關規定。 二、建議司法院研修提審法、法院組織法與行政訴訟法，建立非法外來人口收容「追究」、「提審」等事後即時司法審查機制；此外，為提升對於涉及刑案受收容人之權益保障，則建議司法院研修刑事訴訟法，針對觸犯微罪且有逃亡或逃亡之虞之犯罪嫌疑人或被告，增列「刑事收容」制度，以符刑事偵審實需。 三、建議勞委會儘速修正就業服務法相關法規，增列移民署查緝、收容非法外勞之法源依據，並建置完善之外籍勞工相關制度，減少非法外勞之發生率。 四、修正國家安全法第3條不合時宜之規定。 五、行政院應建置跨部會整合平台，釐定完整妥適之移民政策後，相關部會應配合修訂移民配套法規。 / Keywords: illegal immigration, illegal alien population, detention, liberty, family rights, equal rights, due process of law, dissent, legal investigation, Habeas Corpus In the recent years, Taiwan, following the international development in human rights and especially after the release of Act to Implement the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and International Covenant on Economic Social and Cultural Rights (hereby referred to as the “Two Covenants”) has started the popular discussion of illegal alien population detention. This paved the way to the subject of my thesis. Because of Taiwan's special political situation, the immigrant population is defined as not only "foreigners" or "stateless people", but also as "non-permanent nationals", "Mainland citizens", "Hong Kong residents", "Macao residents" and other categories of people. The foreign population that comes to Taiwan may not all have "migration intent”, so for the sake of being thorough, in this thesis, the term "illegal immigrants" will be changed to the broader term of "illegal aliens." As the current investigation shows illegal alien population is mostly from Mainland China and foreign countries, this study will focus on these two groups. Aliens that can be “detained” are limited in this study to illegal aliens that have entered Taiwan and have violated immigration laws. The term “detention" is defined as "an administrative act of keeping illegal aliens in temporary premises during pre-removal process until their repatriation”. The detention of illegal alien population is an executive sanction given prior to the repatriation of illegal aliens. It is a temporary executive protection measure, not a punitive one. It is not an administrative penalty and a non-criminal sanction. It differs from the term “custody” of the Code of Criminal Procedure. The thesis is divided into the following eight sections: 1. Introduction 2. Foreign-Based Detention System 3. Taiwan’s Detention System 4. Basic Human Rights of the Detained Aliens and Their Conflicts 5. Plight of Current Detention Practices 6. Constitutionality of Taiwan’s Detention System 7. Remedies for Detaining and Executive Practices 8. Conclusions and Recommendations In the first place, most of the detention systems in the United States, Japan and other developed countries in the world do not adopt the " Grundsatz des Richtervorbehaltes " system. The periods for detention around the world are also different. As the number of illegal immigration cases increases in these countries, the prevention, investigation and management of illegal immigration have also become more proactive and stricter than ever before. Taiwan's detention system can be subdivided into two major groups, foreigners (including foreign workers) and Chinese Mainlanders, overseen by the Immigration Act Section 38 of the Employment Service Law Article 68, Paragraph 4, and the Taiwanese and the Mainland Regional Relations (hereinafter referred to as Cross Strait Ordinance) Article 18. The detention system for foreigners and Mainlanders are essentially the same in Taiwan. They both share the same agencies for detention, regulations, detention duration, decisions, detention locations, resident alien pre-repatriation reviews, opportunities for legal defense, and detention treatment. The main differences between the two groups are: the requirements for detention, the presence or absence of objection procedures, the procedure for sentence set-off or penalty fines, the requirement of judicial consent prior to expulsion (forced exit) from the country, and other similar processes. In the last two decades, through the Golden Gate Agreement between Taiwan and Mainland China, there are regularly scheduled forced exits of Mainlanders from Taiwan. Repatriation of Mainlanders has not had any issues yet. That is why there has not been the need for regulations stopping their detention due to inability to repatriate them like in the cases of foreigners. The protection of fundamental rights should comply with "the hierarchy of legal reservation" and "the importance theory". The conflicts among legal interests should be adjusted in accordance with human rights principles. And the fundamental rights of the detained people should be addressed by the past legal principles. This thesis will cover three directions: people's personal freedom, family rights and equal rights. Through detention-related processes, the statistical comparisons between the number of detained aliens and average days in the detention centers of foreign nationals and Mainlanders, and the statistical comparison between foreign nationals involved and not involved in detention and the number of days in detention, one can see the current condition of detention and can describe the difficulties faced by the Administration and the implementation of specific improvement plans (including entry and exit information, drafts to amend the Immigration Act sent to the Legislature, etc.) by the various related authorities within the Department of Immigration. The constitutionality of the detention is divided into six discussion topics: "Grundsatz des Richtervorbehaltes and Detainee’s Personal Freedom", "Right to Work and Protection of that Right", "Clear Detention Period," "Difference Between Sentence Set-Off and Detention," "Abuse of General Terms" and "Constructive Thoughts of Criminal Custody". From my research, the constitutionality and applicability of existing regulations are clear. However, during actual prosecution of individual cases, detained aliens involved in criminal cases may "extend detention" and are tried simply as criminal cases, not evaluating beforehand the necessity of repatriation, whether there is a gap with the legislative goal and whether it violates the principle of proportionality. In current regulations, the phrase “serve labor sentence” easily leads to misunderstanding that there exists labor rights violation. And the implementation of right to off-set imprisonment by detention days not only does not eliminate the question of whether administrative detention replaces imprisonment has human rights violation, but it confuses the nature of detention laws. It also lets judicial agencies use criminal cases involving illegal aliens to be part of Administrative agencies’ responsibility, worsening the problem. The Border Entry and Exit and Immigration Act Article 38, Section 1, paragraph 4, also easily transforms detention into a mechanism of shielding against criminal prosecution. All this should be reviewed and analyzed in its entirety. Concerning the detained illegal aliens’ executive relief, this thesis will analyze from the points of "dissent", "petition", "executive action", "National Compensation", "Habeas Corpus" and "accountability". Studies found there are not too many cases of executive relief filed by the detained aliens. From observing the practical cases, the current relief program for the protection of the detained aliens’ rights is quite slow and needs improvement. The detention laws regarding the current illegal alien population can be summarized as followed: 1. Although the detention of illegal alien population does not to adopt "Grundsatz des Richtervorbehaltes " principle, it does not violate the provisions of Article 8 of the Constitution and there is no doubt of its constitutionality. 2. The current detention laws of illegal alien population fit the "International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights," and related provisions, there is no issue of applicability. 3. The part related to the protection of process right In the current laws related to detention of illegal aliens, the sections related to foreigners and Mainlanders that guarantee the process right are not entirely consistent, and they lack the enforcement mechanism of requiring reviews by impartial third parties. This should be improved. 4. Lack of mechanism that requires immediate judicial review The detention of illegal alien population is a "non-criminal detention". Article 8 of the Constitution, Paragraph 4 provides that illegal aliens may ask the Court for investigation; or the alien may ask for a judicial habeas corpus according to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, Article 13. The current Habeas Corpus, Administrative Procedure Laws, Court Organization Laws and other related regulations still need supporting structure and that responsibility falls on the judiciary branch to address directly and actively. 5. The separation of criminal and administrative procedures Existing regulations consider aliens in the mist of investigation, alien suspects awaiting sentencing, and criminal alien defendants are possible subjects for detention. There must be judicial consent prior to repatriation of criminal case defendants. However the fact that limitation on the number of times that detention may be extended has not been clearly set and that the days in the detention may set off the imprisonment not only creates massive legal confusion, but also invites criticism that "detention is now replacing imprisonment". To meet the legislative goal of establishing detention laws to enhance human rights, this thesis argues for the illegal aliens involved in criminal cases should first be tried as criminals, then as administrative defendants. And detention laws should be limited to repatriation of illegal alien population only. 6. Regulations requiring serving labor sentence do not fit current reality or practices. This easily leads to misunderstanding of human rights violation. It should be deleted immediately. The regulations should be compatible with the release of the Two Covenants. 7. The laws related to illegal alien workers detention should be corrected The Employment Service Act is not consistent with the establishment of the Department of Immigration. The Act should be amended to meet the current legal system and reduce ambiguity. Labor Administration and Legislative agencies should proactively promote the amendment of this Act. The main recommendations for the legal system around detention of illegal aliens are: A. Suggested amendments for immigration laws and cross-strait ordinance (a) Candidates for detention should be amended to accommodate illegal aliens that are simply awaiting repatriation. The need for judicial involvement should be deleted. And illegal aliens involved in criminal investigation and hearing should be under the jurisdiction of the Department of Immigration. (b) The regulation requiring judicial consent prior to repatriation should be deleted. (c) The allowance for reducing length of sentence or fines by detention days should be removed. (d) After the Judicial Branch establishes investigation and habeas corpus and the judicial review, there should not be a separate detention system. (e) During border entries and exits and during immigration law amendments, more provisions for detaining illegal foreign aliens should apply to Mainland, Hong Kong and Macao residents. B. The Judicial Branch should analyze and edit current habeas corpus laws, court organization laws and administrative procedure laws in order to establish immediate judicial review process after illegal aliens enters custody. In addition, to improve the protection of the rights of the detaining aliens who are involved in criminal cases, the Judicial Ministry should review and edit criminal proceedings laws and add “criminal custody” system to meet current needs. C. The Council of Labor Affairs should amend as soon as possible the Employment Services Act and related regulations, to increase additional investigation by the Department of Immigration, detention laws related to illegal alien workers, and build a complete legal system for foreign workers in order to reduce cases of illegal foreign workers. D. Section 3 of the National Security Act is obsolete and should be amended to reflect current reality. E. The Executive Branch should build cross-agency integration platform, determining the suitable immigration policies, and relevant departments need to support the amended immigration regulations.

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration

由於許多國家死亡率下降快速、壽命延長幅度超乎預期，加上生育率持續低於替代水準，人口老化現象愈發明顯，近年來個人生涯規劃及政府施政，都格外強調退休後經濟生活及老年相關社會資源分配的比重。以臺灣為例，行政院經濟建設委員會 (簡稱經建會) 從1990年代開始，每兩年公布一次未來的人口推估，但過去十年來經建會屢次修正歷年的推估假設，以因應生育率及死亡率變化快速，適時提醒臺灣日益加速的人口老化。正因為人口推估可能受到人口數、社會變遷、資料品質等因素，影響統計分析的可靠性，常用於國家層級的推估方法，往往無法直接套用至縣市及其以下的層級 (即小區域)，使得小區域人口推估較為棘手，需要更加謹慎面對。 本文延續王信忠等人 (2012) 的研究，以小區域人口推估為目標，著重在生育率推估研究，結合隨機模型與修勻方法，尋找適合臺灣縣市層級的小區域人口推估方法。本文考量的隨機模型計有區塊拔靴法 (Block Bootstrap) 和 Lee-Carter 模型 (Lee and Carter 1992)，以預測未來的生育率和死亡率，並套用年輪組成推計法 (或稱為人口要素合成法；Cohort Component Method) 及修勻 (Graduation) 方法，探討這些方法與人口規模之間的關係，評估用於小區域人口推估之可行性。 本文首先以電腦模擬，探討生育率的推估，討論是否可直接推估總生育率，類似增加樣本數的概念，取代各縣市的年齡別生育率，以取得較為穩定的推估。根據模擬結果，發現人口規模對出生數的推估沒有明顯的關係，只要使用總生育率、再結合區塊拔靴法，就足以提供穩定的推估結果。實證研究方面，以臺灣縣市層級的人口及其年齡結構 (例如：0-14歲、15-64歲、65歲以上) 為驗證對象，發現分析結果也與電腦模擬相似，發現以區塊拔靴法推估臺灣各縣市的總生育率、年齡組死亡率，其推估精確度不因人口規模而打折扣，顯示以區塊拔靴法推估總生育率、年齡組死亡率，可用於推估臺灣小地區的未來人口。 / Due to the rapid mortality reduction, prolonging human longevity is a common phenomenon and longevity risk receives more attention in 21st century. Many developed countries encounter many problems brought up by prolonging life, such as poor community infrastructure and insufficient financial pension funds for the elderly. Population Projection thus becomes essential in government planning in dealing with the population aging. However, rapid changes in mortality and fertility make the projection very tricky. It would be even more difficult to project areas with fewer populations (i.e., small areas) since it takes extra efforts to deal with the larger fluctuations in small population. The objective of the study is to construct a standard operating procedure (SOP) for small population projection. Unlike the previous study, e.g., Wang et al. (2012), we will take both the fertility and mortality into account (but set migration aside for simplicity). First, for the fertility projection, we evaluate if total fertility rates (TFR) are more appropriate than the age-specific fertility rates for small population. Also, we compare two fertility projection methods: Lee-Carter model and block bootstrap, and check which shows better results. Based on the computer simulation, we found that TFR performs better and the block bootstrap method is more sensitive to rapid fertility changes. As for mortality rate projection, we also recommend the standard operating procedure by Wang et al. (2012). However, the smoothing methods have limited impacts on mortality projection and can be ignored. In addition to simulation, we also apply the SOP for projecting the small population to Taiwan counties and it achieves satisfactory results. However, due to the availability of data, our method can only be used for short-term projection (at most 30 years) and these results might not apply to long-term projection. Also, similar to the previous work, the fertility rates have the larger impact on small population projection, although we think that the migration has large impact as well. In this study, only the stochastic projection is considered and we shall consider including expert opinions as the future study.

都市熱島效應帶給臺北盆地許多問題，如更炎熱的天氣、都市降雨增加、空氣污染、能源短缺，並造成環境惡化。為了瞭解熱環境及影響都市熱島強度的相關因素，本研究在2012年7月4日、11日、13日以機動觀測法進行溫度實測實驗。分別得到臺北盆地的中午(12:00~14:00)，晚上(19:00~21:00)和凌晨(02:00~04:00)溫度分佈數據和圖形。結果顯示，都市熱島環境下氣溫熱點出現在高度擁擠的交通節點、高人口密度地區、高建蔽率地區，而氣溫冷點出現在低人口密度地區、廣闊綠地附近和山邊。中午時段熱點散佈在都市各地，最大熱島強度為6.87。C；晚上時段熱點出現在具有人工發散熱的都市中心，因為人類活動使空氣升溫，成為扮演熱島效應的重要角色，同時其最大熱島強度為5.77。C；凌晨時段都市吸收的熱輻射和人為活動造成的熱能無法從市中心擁擠的建物群消散到郊區，此外從盆地邊緣吹來的風冷卻了郊區，造成其溫度急劇下降，因此熱區的面積明顯縮小，集中在臺北盆地中央部分，此時段最大熱島強度為4.38。C。 本研究同時進行CFD模擬實驗，取得臺北盆地CFD模擬溫度分佈圖。其過程係建立臺北盆地3D立體幾何結構場域，輸入相關邊界條件、人工熱與物件材質之熱屬性，經過電腦重覆演算至穩定狀態，得到CFD模擬臺北盆地夏季中午、晚上和凌晨之溫度分佈圖，其溫度分佈情形和實測溫度分佈相似，而三時段的都市熱島強度則分別為中午1.38。C、晚上1.35。C、凌晨1.35。C。 進一步比較臺北盆地2012年夏季各時段實測彩色溫度分佈圖和CFD模擬 溫度分佈圖，可得知臺北盆地中央熱四周冷，且都市熱島強度在人口密度高、建蔽率高的區域偏高，而在大型綠地區域偏低。CFD模擬圖中則呈現，在大型水域附近區域的都市熱島強度偏低。 為精確了解都市熱島強度受相關因子影響程度，本研究針對臺北市都市熱島強度與主要相關因子(人口密度、建蔽率、綠地比率)進行量化分析，經線性回歸圖形及相關係數得到印證，都市熱島強度確與人口密度及建蔽率呈正相關，而與綠地比率呈負相關。 綜合上述結論，為減少日益嚴重的都市熱島效應，可朝以下方法努力，如 減少人工熱排放(如汽車、空調)，改善鋪面材質如屋頂綠化、開發大型綠地、 疏浚維護大型水域周邊與改善都市內空氣流通量使蓄積的輻射熱或人工發散熱更容易排散。

一、本文以自康熙二十二年起，迄道光二十二年止，一百六十年間之清代臺灣為研究 範圍。臺灣於該時期甚少涉外事件，影響政之因素，較為單純。 二、臺灣歷史顥示，移民為清代臺灣社會增加最迅速之組成，厥為促成清代臺灣社會 會變遷之主力。治臺官制則為清廷治臺擬定政策及執行政策之工具。基此認識，本文 首先分析臺灣人口成長及社會變遷以及清代治臺官制。 三、本文斷代期間較長，政策更易與社會變遷之間關係甚為複雜，為筆者最感興趣及 關心的問題。本文將就此觀點探究清廷治臺所作作之撫民與理番政策及其推行。該類 政策就適用之對象可分為三：（一）僅適用於漢人者為撫民政策。（二）僅適用於番 人者為理番政策。（三）民、番適用者，原即適用於全中國，或因臺灣地方特殊，曾 稍作調整。若就政策目的而論，則可區分為二：（一）順應地方需要者，前述之撫民 政策及理番政策屬之。（二）維持政權存續者的前途之同時適用於民、番者屬之。 四、本文就現清廷治臺決策權力雖歸屬於清帝，其就行政過程而言，則大都委諸福建 省內長官，且因時局需要，或行政制度變遷，曾有數次轉移。 五、；順應社會變遷而推行之政策，無論撫民抑理番，為謀地方安靖，清廷當知適切 調整政策。朱一貴、林爽文等重大事件也促使清廷必須自省，以期政策符合社會需要 。至於為雀持政權存續而實施之諸種政策，則因環境特殊，除教化外，保甲、積儲大 都未能順利推行。 六、清廷治臺因形勢懸絕難能施展。其所受限制可得而言有三：（一）臺海橫隔，足 以干擾治臺制度之設計，乃至各種政策之推行。凡未顧慮及交通阻隔影響之政策，未 有不遭致嚴重失敗者。（二）移民偷渡入臺，迅速增加，為臺灣墾拓主力，然也嚴重 侵蝕臺灣社會基層組織，遂致臺灣社會鬆散，動亂屢平屢起。（三）治臺決策屬地方 行政決策，指導錯誤或篇頗執行，皆足以引發諸種社會問題，若因遷延時日，政策一 獲修正，以謀彌縫，必致政治動亂。 七、本文研析清廷治臺諸種撫民與理番政策，從而推斷清廷治臺或有基本原則，應為 下述三者：（一）視臺灣如同內地；（二）以漢文化為主；（三）順應臺灣社會變遷 。 /

近年來，隨著我國國民的壽命持續增長，人口老化愈加明顯。預期臺灣在2021年將進入人口零成長，2025年65歲以上人口比例也將超過20%（來源：國家發展委員會2014年人口推估）。人口老化帶來許多問題，如老年生活、醫療、以及長期照顧等需求，其中照顧需求與年齡正相關，預期需求將隨壽命延長而增加，需要及早規劃及因應，這也是今年通過長期照護法的原因。由於各國國情不同，對於長期照護的定義、補助及需求也不盡相同，有必要發展適用於臺灣特性的，推估長期照顧需求的所需之資源。重大傷病中的許多疾病與失能、甚至長期照護有關，由於全民健保實施至今已逾20年，重大傷病的認定標準及程序相對客觀、中立，受到民眾、學術、政府各界肯定。 有鑑於此，本文以全民健保資料庫的重大傷病資料庫為基礎，挑選八類引發長照的重大傷病，作為規劃長期照護保險的參考。本文以這些傷病的發生率、罹病後死亡率、罹病後存活率等，結合國發會所人口推估的結果，利用年輪組成法(Cohort Component Method)推估長期照顧的未來需求。研究發現：未來需求人口從2013年約10萬人，迅速增加至2060年的21萬人，增加速度相當快。而參考「長期照顧保險法」草案的給付內容，若聘請一名外籍看護每月20,000元計算，每人分擔將從2012年的$530元/月升至2060年的2,728元/月；若不調整保費且以隨收隨付計算，每人每月繳交400元長照保費，長照給付將從2012年每月13,353元降至2060年每月3,556元，由此可知壽命延長、人口老化將造成長照保險的財務問題。另外，本文考量的八項重大傷病較為保守，沒有加入老化、遺傳等因素的長照需求，預期將不足以因應實際需求，未來有必要引入商業保險來彌補社會保險的不足。 / In recent years, with the sustainable growth of the life expectancy in our country, population aging becomes more apparent. Taiwan’s population of ages 65 and over will exceed 20% within 10 years, before 2025. (Source: National Development Council - Population Projection on 2014). The population aging an prolonging life incurs a big demand for caring the elderly, such as the economic need after the retirement, medical cost, and long-term care. Among these needs, the demand of long term care was under-estimated and is only recognized recently. Thus, this study focuses on predicting the need of long-term care in Taiwan. Specifically, the definition and standard (as well as types and amounts of subsidy) for juding whether one needs long-terma care is not yet determined, although Taiwan’s government passed the long-term care law (Long-Term Care Insurance Law) earlier this year. We should adapt the notion of catastrophic illness (CI) and use certain CI categories, which are related to long-term care, to design the long-term care insurance. Catastrophic illness (CI) is one of the key features of Taiwan’s National Health Insurance (NHI), and the definition and process of evaluating if one is with the CI is quite complete. We choose eight categories of CI and use the NHI database to obtain their incidence rates, mortality rates, and survival probability. Together with the population projection from National Development Council in 2014 and the cohort component method to predict the long-term care demand in Taiwan. The syudy result shows that the population needing long-term care will rise from about 100 thousands in 2013 to about 210 thousands in 2060. Moreover, if the long-term care insurance is funded via pay-as-you-go, the individual premium required will rise 5 times from 2012 to 2060. This indicates that the long-term care might be too expensive and the commercial insurance can play an important role as a supplement.

臺灣各縣市人口結構差異明顯，各縣市的人口出生、老化程度都不盡相同，而且在醫療分配及社會資源的使用也有很大的差異，因此各縣市應因應各地特性發展不同的小區域人口推估方法。由於樣本數與變異數成反比，人數較少者的死亡率（像是高齡人口）通常震盪較大，藉由適當的修勻(Graduation)調整，通常可降低年齡層間的死亡率震盪。然而，當縣市層級的人數太少時，只依賴修勻往往不足，多半會再參考人口較多的大母體之死亡率。例如：傳統的的貝氏修勻，使用Lee-Carter之類的參數死亡模型(Lee and Carter, 1992)，或是透過小區域及大母體的死亡率比值（王信忠, 2012）。然而過去研究較少全面性的比較這些方法，尤其是用於人數較少（如：十萬人）的地區。 本文以探討小區域生命表及死亡率推估為目標，著眼於人數不多於五萬人，尋求較為適合臺灣及類似國家的死亡率編算方法。由於修勻或貝氏等方法可視為增加樣本數，本文將擴大樣本分為四種方式：「同地同時」、「同地異時」、「異地同時」、「異地異時」，亦即將死亡資料的整併分成是否限定於小區域，以及是否可擴及其他年度。本文藉由電腦模擬測試，提供在各種限制之下，最合適小區域生命表建構的準則。其中，本文假設大、小區域的死亡率間存有三種情境的關係：定值、遞增、V字型，藉由調整大小區域死亡率比值間的幅度，探討大母體及小區域間的差異對實務使用的影響。研究發現，Partial SMR方法是一個值得參考的方法，當大小區域死亡率類型接近時的效果不錯，甚至可用於人數小於一萬人，但若死亡率類型差異過大，修勻方法會有限制，使用時需格外謹慎。 / The population structure, life expectancy (and age-specific mortality rates), and the speed of population aging vary a lot in different county of Taiwan. Each county has its own policy planning according to the needs. However, the county level population is usually not enough to provide stable estimates, such as of the life expectancies and mortality rates at the county level. Thus, certain graduation methods are applied to stabilize these estimates. However, only a few studies focus on comparing different types of graduation methods, including traditional graduation methods, Bayesian methods, and parametric mortality models. In this study, we separate the graduation methods into four types, according to if using only the small area data and if one year or multiple years of data are used, and explore which methods are appropriate to the areas with population fewer than 100,000. We use computer simulation to evaluate the graduation methods. We found that the Standard Mortality Ratio is promising when the mortality profiles of small and large populations are similar, and it is a feasible solution even for the areas with population fewer than 10,000. However, if the mortality profiles differ significantly, all graduation methods need to be applied with care.

城市化意味着城市的經濟結構、社會結構和空間結構變遷。隨着中國大陸城市化的推進，城市人口遷移、建成區面積增長，城市發展質量逐步提高，而同期內城市商品住宅價格亦呈現普遍而明顯的上漲趨勢。 過去雖有許多國內外文獻對全國城市商品住宅價格的影響因素進行了探討，但少有文獻從城市化的層面着眼進行研究；在部分集中討論城市化效應的文獻中，亦存在以省域代替城市作爲研究對象，以及採用橫截面數據進行實證研究，未能體現不同城市化和社會經濟發展階段之變動趨勢的缺憾。 有鑑於此，本文使用中國大陸2003年至2011年不同規模城市的相關追蹤資料，以“人口城市化”“土地城市化”和城市發展質量優化作爲城市化的主要體現，用從業人口、建設用地面積、房地產開發投資額等一系列指標作爲自變數構建追蹤資料固定效應模型，分析城市化對不同規模城市商品住宅價格的影響，探究中國大陸社會經濟重要發展來源的城市化能否繼續維持城市商品住宅市場的穩定。實證結果顯示，城市化發展對城市商品住宅價格上漲的貢獻明顯，而人口城市化的作用較之土地城市化更爲顯著；大城市和中小城市在城市化發展過程中商品住宅價格影響因素亦有所不同，城市發展中由政府主導的城市土地開發利用與基礎設施建設應集約化發展，土地城市化必須與人口城市化以及城市發展質量提升相互協調。 / Urbanization means changes of cities ‘economic structure, social structure and spatial structure. With the development of Chinese urbanization, the urban population and construction land area is growing, the urban development quality is improving gradually, in the same period city residential housing prices also presents common and obvious rising trend. In the past, although there were many domestic and external literature focusing on the influence factors of the national urban residential housing prices, but there were few literature based the study on the impact of urbanization; many of literatures in which the urbanization effect discussed, also taken provincial data as the research object instead of city , using cross-sectional data for empirical research, so failed to reflect changes in different stages of urbanization and social and economic development trend. In light of this, this article refer to mainland China from 2003 to 2011, 213 level panel data, related to "land urbanization" and "population urbanization" quality optimization as the main embodiment of urbanization, taking urban working population, construction land area, real estate investment and a series of indicators as independent variables to construct panel fixed effects model, in order to analyze the effect of urbanization on the urban residential property prices. We expect to explore whether if mainland China's urbanization, which is a source of important social and economic development of the nation, will continue to maintain the stability of the urban residential market. Empirical results indicates that the influence of urbanization on city residential housing price is evident, besides population urbanization plays a more important role than land urbanization. In the process of urbanization, the influential factors of residential housing price varying in metropolis and small cities, therefore development of urban land dominated by local government ought to realize intensification, and land urbanization should be coordinated with population urbanization and city development quality.

壽命延長及生育率下降使得人口老化日益明顯，成為全球多數國家在21世紀必須面對的議題，由於各區域人口老化的速度不同，必須根據各地特性而調整因應對策。其中研究死亡率變化為面對人口老化的必備課題，尤其是高齡族群的死亡率，這也是近年高齡死亡模型廣受重視的主因之一。因為樣本數與變異數成反比，人口較少的區域或是高齡人口，死亡率的觀察值通常會有較大震盪，為了降低震盪多半會經過修勻，以取得較為穩定的死亡率推估值（王信忠等人，2012）。此外，Li and Lee (2005)的Coherent Lee-Carter模型也是另一種可行方法，透過參考大區域的資訊降低小區域的估計誤差。 本文探討結合上述修勻、死亡率模型的可能，希冀能綜合兩者的優點，提高小區域死亡率推估的精確性。因為Coherent Lee-Carter模型的想法類似增加小區域的人數（加入大區域的人數），本文探討人口數與Lee-Carter模型參數估計值的關係，再以修勻調整大小區域的差異，透過電腦模擬及資料分析，驗證本文提出方法是否有效。其中，仿造王信忠等人的作法，假設小區域與大區域死亡率間的七種可能情境，以平均絕對百分誤差(Mean Absolute Percentage Error)為衡量標準，找出調整修勻、相關模型的方法。另外，本文也以臺灣縣市為研究區域，驗證本文方法的估計結果。研究發現適當地使用修勻方法，可降低小區域的死亡率估計值，其效果優於Coherent Lee-Carter模型。