近年來國人晚婚、不婚、晚育或不育的現象持續惡化，衍伸出高齡少子化所帶來之人口結構惡化已是國家安全層次議題。本研究以實證方式探討影響台灣地區生育率之主要因素，並著重住宅價格（房價所得比）、住宅交易數量（建物買賣移轉棟數）及存量（自有住宅率）之變化與總生育率之關聯性。探究近年我國房價變化、持有自有住宅比率及住宅市場之交易活絡程度是否會影響家戶單位生育決策。 研究針對西元2002年至西元2015年間台灣地區20縣市共280筆追蹤資料(Panel data)，在控制時間效果下運用傳統最小平方法、固定效果模型及隨機效果模型對資料進行迴歸分析。研究結果顯示：在考慮生育率落後一期情境下，同時控制時間及區域效果模型中發現：房價所得比與總生育率呈現顯著正相關，建物買賣移轉棟數與總生育率呈現顯著負相關，自有住宅率雖與總生育率為正相關但未達顯著水準。而其他影響總生育率之主要變數：女性受高等教育比率及粗結婚率與總生育率成顯著正相關。失業率與總生育率則為顯著負相關。研究結果可發現，可能由於我國高度自有住宅率之特性，房價上漲帶來之財富效果是導致房價所得比與生育率呈現正向關係之成因。建物買賣移轉棟數與總生育率呈現負向關係，研判來自於家戶購屋初期通常需付出一筆為數不小之頭期款，短期間內將耗用家戶較多經濟資源，進而排擠家戶單位短期生育決策。 / In recent years, more and more Taiwanese tend to marry at a later age, or remain unmarried, or bear children at a later age or not at all. The problems of population aging and low birth rate have led to the worsened population structure, which has become an issue of national security. This empirical study investigated the factors that contributed to the present low birth rate in Taiwan. The study emphasized the relationships between housing price to income ratio, the number of housing transferred, homeownership rate and total fertility rate (TFR). This study also tried to investigate how the aforementioned three factors affect the childbearing decision of family units. The study focused on a panel data set with 280 samples that was collected across 20 cities and counties in Taiwan from 2002 to 2015. Ordinary least squares, fixed effects model and random effects model were used, and time effect are controlled in all models. The results showed that, after controlling for the time and regional effects, the housing price to income ratio had a positive relationship with the lag TFR. The number of building transferred had a negative relationship with the lag TFR. The homeownership rate had an insignificant negative relationship with the lag TFR. Other factors also affected the lag TFR. For example, the ratio of females who received higher education and crude marriage rates had a significant positive effect. The unemployment rate had a significant negative relationship with the lag TFR. The results might imply that, given the high homeownership rate in Taiwan, the rise in housing price increase “wealth effect’’ which is the reason for the positive relationship between housing price to income ratio and lag TFR. The reason for the negative relationship between the number of building transferred and lag TFR could be the huge financial burden of down payment when a family purchases a house. This burden takes out a huge portion from the budget, and therefore family units might decide to delay having children for a short period.

近年臺北市政府試圖藉由興建品質良好的公共住宅，解決住宅價格高漲影響人民居住的問題，然附近居民往往認為公共住宅會造成周圍住宅生活環境品質低落及房價下跌，反對其於住家鄰近興建。過去國內缺乏以實證方式計算公共住宅對周圍住宅價格之影響，亦尚未針對新推出的公營出租住宅個案深入分析；而國外相關研究雖有利用量化實證公共住宅與周圍房價關係，然多針對個別公共住宅社區為研究對象，對不同類型公共住宅及其對不同高低房價住宅之影響與差異，缺乏更全面的探討分析，且亦未釐清住宅價格的空間自相關特性及公共住宅設立的不同階段等，對周圍房價影響效果的差異。 本文應用特徵價格理論傳統迴歸模型、空間迴歸模型及分量迴歸模型，以2012年7月至2015年9月之臺北市不動產實價登錄交易資料為對象，研究整建住宅、出售國宅、出租國宅、公營出租住宅等四類不同時期公共住宅，於100~300公尺不同影響範圍下，分別對周圍住宅價格的影響效果。另外並選取興隆公共住宅作為個案研究對象，以臺北市文山區不動產實價登錄交易資料為對象，應用差異中之差異法結合空間迴歸模型，分析興隆公共住宅的興建完工與住戶入住對於周圍住宅價格之外溢效果。實證結果顯示，附近有早期興建之整建住宅及出租國宅者，其住宅總價皆呈現顯著下跌現象，分別下跌約1.7%至8.9%及1.5%至7.7%；附近有出售國宅之住宅總價漲跌情形不顯著；而近期興建之公營出租住宅則造成周圍住宅價格顯著上漲約1.7%至7.7%；又前述影響程度皆隨影響範圍擴大而隨之減輕。進一步分析不同影響範圍下對周圍高低房價住宅的影響，公營出租住宅對周圍低價住宅正向提升效果為6.2%至7.1%，皆大於高價住宅之無顯著影響至3.2%。而興隆公共住宅的興建完工確實能使周圍住宅價格較外圍地區多提升約6.5%至15.8%，惟住戶入住興隆公共住宅則未具顯著正向的價格外溢效果。由新興辦的公營出租住宅對周圍房價造成正面影響的實證結果，應可釐清公共住宅外部性之正向效果，有助後續公共住宅的興建。 / In recent years, government has tried to build the public housing with high quality to solve the living problems caused by the soaring of the house price. However, residents beside the public housing often regard them as Nimbys that will detrimentally affect property values and oppose public housing to be built nearby. There were short of empirical studies that focus on the effects of public housing on nearby property, as well as the case study of social housing newly built in Taiwan. Besides, the empirical studies in foreign only select a specific public housing as their subject, which few of them analyze different effects caused by different types of public housing, ignore different effects on nearby property with different values, and have not clarify whether the spatial autocorrelation of property values as well as the construction and operation of the social housing leads to different results. This study analyzes the effect of social housing, resettled tenement, public housing for rent and for sale on nearby property values in different ranges separately by using hedonic price theory OLS, spatial and quantile regression as model, and selecting the sale price of real estate in Taipei City from July 2012 to September 2015 as sample. Besides, Xing-Long Social housing and sale prices of real estate in Wenshan district of Taipei City are also selected for case study applying Difference in Difference method with spatial regression, in order to analyze the nearby property values changes after the construction and the move in of the residents of Xing-Long social housing. The result shows that although resettled tenement and public housing for rent detrimentally affect the property values by 1.7% to 8.9% and 1.5% to 7.7% separately, public housing for sale does not affect the property values significantly, and social housing positively affects the property values by 1.7% to 7.7% on the contrary. In addition, these effects decline with distance from public housing. With regard to the impact on high and low priced property in different ranges, social housing has positive effect on low-priced property by 6.2% to 7.1% and no significant effect to 3.2% on high-priced property. The construction of Xing-Long social housing has positive spillover effect by 6.5% to 15.8%, however, the move in of the residents does not. Empirical results show that social housing newly built are able to enhance the property values nearby, which is contributed to the follow-up construction of the public housing.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第20329号 / 工博第4266号 / 新制||工||1661(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科建築学専攻 / (主査)教授 林 康裕, 教授 西山 峰広, 教授 神吉 紀世子 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第21727号 / 工博第4544号 / 新制||工||1709(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科建築学専攻 / (主査)教授 林 康裕, 教授 松島 信一, 准教授 聲高 裕治 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第25275号 / 工博第5234号 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科建築学専攻 / (主査)教授 三浦 研, 教授 金多 隆, 教授 牧 紀男 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:基盤研究(C) 課題番号:14530108 研究代表者:家森 信善 研究期間:2002-2005年度

由於石化能源的蘊藏量有限，各國政府目前以能源的安全供給與環保的使用做為主要的能源政策，經過各國公部門與私部門多年來的努力，許多替代能源的技術雖然開始商品化，但實際上對於傳統石化能源依賴度的減少，仍舊有限。反觀節能技術雖然表面上不如屬於”開源”概念的再生能源響亮，但技術的成熟度與產業化對於減少石化能源依賴的貢獻度並不亞於開源的效果，尤其許多發展中的國家短期內勢必無法負擔新的再生能源技術所要付出的昂貴能源費用，能源管理服務業所能提供的節能效果，可以同時解決能源效率低落所造成的浪費以及環境的衝擊。 而能源管理服務業重點在於節能，歐洲與日本市場無論是民眾或是政府在開發替代能源與節約能源的議題上之成果有目共睹，但反觀耗能最高的美國、發展中的中國，節能議題相對來講更形重要，這與台灣的狀況相當類似，因此本研究期望經由法制政策面、產業面以及智慧財產佈局狀況，探討美國與中國之能源管理服務業之現況，並與台灣本身能源管理服務業之發展做比較，提出能源管理服務業未來發展上的建議。 1. 能源管理服務業不宜將有限資源過分集中於發展太陽能與風力發電技術 2. 以美國市場為鏡，以中國大陸能源管理市場為目標 3. 積極從事中國大陸能源管理服務業相關技術之專利佈局 4. ”中央能源管理服務系統”概念的導入-節能減排的技術與服務的創新 5. 發展能源管理服務業住宅之應用 6. 創新的融資模式 7. 人員的培訓與教育 / Due to the limited deposits of fusil energy, the safety and environment protection of energy use ate the most two crucial issues among the countries. After decades of development, alternative energy commercialization successfully started in developed countries. Nevertheless, it’s still not material enough comparing to the energy consumption now days. However, the effect of the energy efficiency technologies is far more practical for developing countries that do not have enough budget for alternative renewable energy research and development. With effective energy management, the Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) can reduce significantly the waste of energy and the influence to the environment while mitigate the impact of the economical growth of emerging countries. ESCOs profit from the energy conservation of their clients by enhance the energy efficiency in various categories including utilities, government, industrial and commercial sectors. According to present study, European countries and Japan in Asia have already developed outstanding environmental friendly policies both in public and private sectors. On the other hand, highly energy consumption country like United States and rapidly growing China just started to deal with this global warming problem and hopefully can still maintain the economy growth at the same time. Undoubtedly, we face the same issue here in Taiwan. As a result, this study is trying to gather and analyze information about ESCO industry in United States, China and Taiwan from three aspects, governmental policies, industry environment and intellectual property strategies to conclude as well as raise opinion and suggestion about the future development of ESCOs. This study concludes in following opinion and suggestion, 1. ESCOs shouldn’t emphasize all their resources to conduct Solar and Wind power technologies instead of energy efficiency technologies. 2. Learn the track of ESCOs in United States and focus on the market in China. 3. Aggressively develop intellectual property strategies about ESCO related subjects in China. 4. Introduce the concept of “Centralized Energy Management System” and encourage innovation of law carbon discharge and high efficiency technologies. 5. Develop ESCO model in residential application. 6. Develop creative fund raising tools for ESCOs. 7. Invest in education and training program related to ESCO industry.

第一章緒論，共四節，分別就勞工福利政策的概念、研究動機、目的、研究範圍與方 法加以說明。並探討與本文相關的社會福利理論、激勵管理理論及公共政策理論。 第二章我國勞工福利政策的決策環境，共四節，探討我國的社會福利思想，社會經濟 結構的變遷，並檢視我國勞工的生活現況。 第三章我國勞工福利政策的規劃過程與內容，共四節除規劃理論外，其他三節分別就 勞工福利政策的目標與演進、勞工福利的法制體系與決策過程，及我國勞工福利政策 規劃過程的特質加以探究。 第四章我國勞工福利政策的執行，共三節，分別從職工福利金條例、勞工住宅，以及 勞工正當休閑閒動的推展說明目前勞工福利政策的執行情錶。 第五章我國勞工福利政策之檢討，共六節，分別從決策過程及法規、機構組織、經費 及人員等方面加以檢討。 第六章結論－－建議與展望，就研究所得提出改進之建議，並體察整個決策環境，提 示今後勞工福利的趨勢與展望。

住戶對其居家環境每日必需的管理維護工作通常有兩大類選擇：住戶自行負責或委託管理維護公司。目前國內集合住宅在管理維護執行上的現況，係「自行管理」佔了68﹪，「委託管理」佔32﹪，這樣的比例與香港及日本的集合住宅大部分係屬委託管理的情形相差甚遠。為何台灣集合住宅委託管理的情形較不普遍？究竟是什麼因素在影響住戶對管理維護模式的選擇？而不同的管理模式其管理維護的效果有何不同？又是哪一種管理維護模式最能讓住戶感到滿意？此乃本研究關注之焦點。 實證結果發現，集合住宅的「規模」與「價格」是影響管理模式選擇的關鍵，當戶數規模與管理費用越足夠，選擇委託管理模式的機率將越大。平均而言，高層大廈與社區，選擇委託管理較自行管理的勝算分別為公寓的6．357倍與4．245倍。此外，當戶數規模平均每增加10戶，選擇委託管理模式的機率就會增加3．9﹪；而當管理費用平均每坪增加10元時，選擇委託管理模式的機率亦會增加6．5﹪。 至於管理維護模式與住戶滿意度的探討，委由管理維護公司來維護社區的結果均比自行管理來得讓住戶滿意，而「部分委託管理模式」則是四種模式中滿意度最高者。究其原因，管理公司雖有其專業知能與經驗的優勢，但也可能存在著代理問題，受到這二者相互權衡（trade-off）的影響，全部委託管理的滿意度便不如部分委託管理。 為使理論實證結果能與實務連結，本研究對「規模」與「價格」做門檻值推估，發現委託大樓管理業者的社區，住戶至少每月每坪需繳交70元的管理費，且該社區的總戶數應該在100戶左右，由此可知，台北市集合住宅的平均戶數可能因未達經濟規模門檻值（因為目前已報備管理組織的公寓大廈有八成其戶數都在百戶以下），致使台北市委託管理的情形並不普遍。此外，集合住宅內生存在的協商困難與外部性問題，也是委託管理比例偏低的原因，建議政府應藉租稅優惠方式來使外部效果內部化，並直接或委託民間非營利團體協助輔導集合住宅管理組織之報備，減少其中的協商成本。 　　關鍵字：集合住宅、管理維護、管理模式、住戶滿意度、戶數與管理費門檻值 / Households typically manage their living environment using one of two modes. Under the first, household conducts all of the basic and day-to-day management functions. Under the second approach, the household hires a property management company to provide and monitor a number of services such as repair and maintenance quality control. In Taiwan, the current proportion of the implementation of condominium ( collective housing ) management and maintenance is 68% of owner management and 32@/o of company management. Comparing to Hong Kong and Japan where the company management is more common than owner management, this proportion is far behind. This research is focus on the reason of less popular of company management in Taiwan collective housing and the factors of affecting the choice of management mode. Moreover this research also discusses the results and effects of different management modes and which management mode can provides the highest degree of satisfaction. The empirical results show that the main factors of selections between different management modes are the "scale" and the "price" of the condominium. On average, comparing company management and owner management, the possibility of choosing company management is 6.357 times more in high-rise buildings (above 13 floor) than in apartment (under 5 floor) and 4.245 times more in the community (large projects) than in apartment. Besides, when the scale of the quantity increases additional ten units averagely, the possibility of choosing company management will increase 3.9% ; and when the management cost averagely goes up extra ten dollars per Pin, the possibility of choosing company management will also increase 6.5 % . As for the discussion of the relationship between the management modes and the household satisfaction, general speaking, the household can get more satisfaction from the result of appointing building management & maintenance companies. Moreover, the outcome of "part company management mode" is the most outstanding one in the four types. The reason is that although the company has the professional knowledge and superior management skills, there does also exist the problem of agency. Due to the trade-off relationship, the satisfaction of complete company management mode is less than part company management mode. In order to relate the theoretical model to the practice, this research infers the thresholds of "scale" and "price". The results show that every household in the community which has hired the building management & maintenance industry has to pay 70 NT$ per Pin-Month in average; furthermore, the number of its households should be approximate 100 units. Therefore it can be said because of the fact that the average number of the household in condominium in Taipei might not excess the threshold of economic scale, company management is not very common in Taipei.( note that at this stage 80% of the registered condominium is less than hundred households.). Besides, the reason of low proportion of company management is that there does exist the difficulty in negotiations and externalities. Consequently, it is suggested that government should use the effect of tax policy to intemalize the externalities. It is also recommended that government can direct or indirectly authorize the non-profit organizations to assist home owners associations to register, so that the cost of negotiations can be reduced. keywords: condominium、 management & maintenance 、 management mode、household satisfaction 、 thresholds of "scale" & "price"

人類的思考決策與行為結果，大多是依循一個明確的市場制度而為的，故市場經濟制度的重要性，就在於有利個人形成如何有效配置資源的合理預期，同時也富有約束及激勵個人行為的誘因，讓個人能在制度約束的條件下，追求自利動機的極大化。都市空地再利用及市地重劃的法令制度，就具有這樣的經濟效應，所以本研究主要在探討，在空地再利用及市地重劃制度的約束與激勵條件下，都市中的經濟人行為決策與個體互動所形成的空間外部性，其會如何反應在住宅土地價格的變動，以探討空地再利用及空地開發所產生的空間外部性對住宅土地價格之影響。本文主要包括（1）空地再利用對住宅土地價格之影響；（2）空地再利用及鄰里土地開發對新建住宅土地價格之影響；（3）空間外部性、交易成本與市地重劃對新建住宅土地價格之影響等。 首先，有關「空地再利用對住宅土地價格之影響」，本文以Geoghegan（2002）的理論模型為基礎，主要探討空地再利用所產生的開放空間效果，其對於住宅土地價格的影響分析。本文運用地理資訊系統及空間計量分析，並建立民國九十三年及九十四年住宅土地的特徵價格模型，研究對象以台南市為例。實證結果發現，公有空地再利用作為公園及臨時停車場使用，其對於住宅土地價格產生正的空間外溢效果，此表示空地再利用所產生的開放空間的外溢利益，其大於空地管理維護的外溢成本。私有空地再利用作為運動場使用，民國九十三年的外部成本大於外部利益，但於民國九十四年的外部利益大於外部成本，故就私有空地再利用的外溢效果而言，私有空地再利用作為運動場使用的外溢效果可由負向轉為正向。公有空地再利用的邊際價格較私有空地再利用的邊際價格為高，故政府應繼續推動公有空地再利用的政策，以彌補鄰里的開放空間不足。 其次，有關「空地再利用及鄰里土地開發對新建住宅土地價格之影響」，本文主要在探討空地再利用所產生的開放空間效果，及鄰里土地開發所產生的空間外溢效果，兩者對於新建住宅土地價格的影響分析，本研究範圍以台南市民國九十三年的新建住宅為對象。實證結果發現，公有空地再利用對於新建住宅土地價格具有正的空間外溢效果，此表示開放空間的外溢利益大於空地管理維護的外溢成本。鄰里土地開發作為住宅使用時，會對新建住宅土地價格形成正的空間外溢效果，但當鄰里土地開發作為工廠使用時，卻會對新建住宅土地價格形成負的空間外溢效果。最有價值的住宅土地為，開放空間數量最大化及土地開發數量的最小化，故當永久性的開放空間(如鄰里公園)、可開發性的開放空間(如公有空地再利用)數量增加，以及鄰里工廠土地開發數量減少等，其將有助提高新建住宅土地價格。 最後，有關「空間外部性、交易成本與市地重劃對新建住宅土地價格之影響」，本文主要從政府實施市地重劃有助於降低交易成本的觀點，探討政府實施市地重劃制度及建設商的土地開發行為所產生的空間外部性，其反應在新建住宅土地價格的影響。本文運用空間計量分析及地理資訊系統，並結合Box-Cox函數轉換，以建構具有空間外部性的特徵價格模型。本文研究範圍以台南市民國八十年、八十五年及九十年的新建住宅為對象。實證結果得知，空間誤差Box-Cox模型對於空間外部性提供良好的解釋力。政府實施市地重劃之後對住宅土地價格具有正向外部性，且有政府參與的重劃區所反應的住宅土地邊際價格為正向關係。而建設商個體互動關係則具有正向及負向外部性，並在長期下出現由正向轉為負向之情況，此證明空間外部性會呈現相互性的現象，進而反應在新建住宅土地價格上會有增減的作用。 / This study mainly assumes that development of vacant land give rise to spatial externalities from the reuse of vacant land and the institution of land readjustment. Finally, this effect will be reflected in the residential land prices. To test this hypothesis, this study applies spatial econometric and geographic information systems based on hedonic pricing model. This study mainly includes that (1) The Impact of Reusing Vacant Land on Residential Land Prices, ( 2) The Impact of Reusing Vacant Land and Neighboring Land Development on Newly-Built Residential Land Prices, ( 3) The Impact of Spatial Externalities, Transaction Costs and Land Readjustment on Newly-Built Residential Land Prices, and evidence from Tainan City in Taiwan. First of all, about’ The Impact of Reusing Vacant Land on Residential Land Prices’, This study is based on Geoghegan’s theoretical model (2002) and focuses on open space effect of reusing vacant land on residential land prices. The data are selected from residential land prices in 2004, 2005. Empirically, I find that the reuse of publicly-owned vacant land used for green and park has positive spatial spillover effects. This means that spillover benefit of open space is more than spillover cost of vacant land management. The reuse of privately-owned vacant land used for sport has negative spatial spillover effects in 2004. The marginal price of publicly-owned vacant land is over than privately-owned vacant land. It is concluded that, the government should continue promoting the reuse of publicly-owned vacant land and used for open space of the neighborhood. Secondly, about’ The Impact of Reusing Vacant Land and Neighboring Land Development on Newly-Built Residential Land Prices’, This study focuses on open space effect of reusing vacant land and spatial spillover effect of neighboring land development on newly-built residential land prices. The data are selected from newly-built residence in 2004. Empirically, I find that the reuse of publicly-owned vacant land has positive spatial spillover effects on newly-built residential land prices. This means that spillover benefit of open space is more than spillover cost of vacant land management. Land development used for residence has positive spatial spillover effects and used for factory has negative spatial spillover effects in a neighborhood. This means that more the reuse of publicly-owned vacant land will increase newly-built residential land prices, while more land development used for factory will decrease newly-built residential land prices in a neighborhood. Finally, about’ The Impact of Spatial Externalities, Transaction Costs and Land Readjustment on Newly-Built Residential Land Prices’, This Study mainly assumes that land readjustment can reduce transaction costs in terms of the spatial externalities from developers’ behavior and the institution of land readjustment. This effect will be reflected in the newly-built residential land prices. To test this hypothesis, I apply spatial econometric analysis and geographic information systems based on the Box-Cox hedonic pricing model. The data are selected from newly-built residence from between 1991, 1996 and 2001. Empirically, I find that the spatial error Box-Cox model is appropriate for engaging in spatial externalities analysis. This is because the results show that land readjustment gives rise to positive spatial externalities on newly-built residential land prices and the marginal price of residential land in areas where land readjustment takes place is also positive. The effects of developers’ interactions give rise to positive spatial externalities but these change to negative spatial externalities in relation to newly-built residential land prices in the long term. It is concluded that, land readjustment as implemented by the government really does contribute to reducing uncertainty in the land development process, and also reduces transaction costs between construction practitioners and landlords.