本研究以日商在台子公司為個案，探討多國企業核心流程之動態演化與創新研究。分析個案子公司的演化與創新過程，本研究從子公司的組織、母子公司關係、子公司角色、以及其核心流程，發現以下五點： 一. 對子公司的組織管理，母公司運用彈性的管理導向，有助於發揮子公司資源與能力。 二、母公司與子公司互相依存的關係，得以讓母公司可善用地主國的優勢，提昇多國企業整體營運的績效；亦能減少多國企業管理上的困難，甚至有助於多國企業的創新速度。 三、子公司的領導統御的務實化與主動性，有助於專業化資源與能力的提高。透過角色的改變，可擴大國際職責的參與機會。 四、相對於各行其是的多國企業，具有整合執行能力的子公司，可以為多國企業創造價值，並成為知識流通的來源。 五、子公司的動態演化，有助於多國企業的當地知識來源及國際化的拓展。 / This thesis has used Japanese subsidiary in Taiwan as case to study the dynamic evolution and innovation through the core process of MNC. From the view point of the organization control of alleged subsidiary, relationship of parent-subsidiary, subsidiary role in MNC, and its core process of subsidiary, we conclude the major findings are： (1). For the purpose of organization management, Parent company of MNC has adopted the flexible managerial patterns to facilitate subsidiary’s capability and its resources accumulation. (2). Relationship between parent and its subsidiary is interdependence. This kind of relationship helps Parent company who can utilize the net ownership advantages of host country to increase the total operational performance of MNC. It also helps to reduce the management difficulty toward subsidiary of MNC and even helps to increase the speed of innovation. (3). Top management of subsidiary shows their management skill with realistic and takes initiative in helping subsidiary to increase its capability and resources. Through the change of charter or its strategic roles, subsidiary can expand its participation of international responsibility. (4). Compare with other MNCs, subsidiary which has the capability of global integration can generate value-creation activities for MNC. Subsidiary will become the source of knowledge flow for its parent company. (5). The core process of subsidiary with dynamic evolution provides MNC with domestic knowledge. This evolution also helps MNC in internationalization development.

有鑑於歐洲各國的福利政策與福利支出相較於其他國家高，歐洲國家多會提供窮困與殘障的人民最基本的社會保障，一般人民亦可享受到基礎醫療保障，在失業時也可以領取失業補助；歐洲各政府甚至會收購即將倒閉的企業或者提供補助使企業能夠繼續經營。然而在持續延燒的歐債危機下，為維持歐元區普遍的薪資和福利水平，歐元區內國家開始採取了國家借貸的做法，但由於國際經濟形勢不佳，歐元區經濟增量未達預期，許多國家原有債券陸續到期，若無法借到新貸款，國家將面臨倒閉危機。因此本論文主要以動態隨機一般均衡模型(DSGE)，探討一個封閉經濟體系下，政府支出進入家計單位效用函數後，換言之政府支出變動將會影響家計單位消費的邊際效用，試著尋找能夠極大化社會福利的政府公債占國內生產毛額的最適比例。我們發現在提高政府公債占國內生產毛額比例時：家計單位將預期未來稅賦繳納之金額更高，因而減少消費、增加儲蓄，所以會排擠掉部分私人消費；同時政府必須提撥部分費用以支付債券利息，所以將排擠掉部分政府支出。另外隨政府公債占國內生產毛額比率上升，整體社會福利水準會逐漸下降；因此，我們認為最適政府公債占國內生產毛額比率應為零。 關鍵字：動態隨機一般均衡模型、政府支出、邊際效用、公債、國內生產毛額、社會福利水準 / In Euro zone, large spending obligations needed to support the welfare state and redistribute wealth in an effort to gain greater equality. Most European countries provide liberal social security benefits to the poor, disabled, basic medical needs and very liberal unemployment benefits. They also own and run large public companies. Under the ongoing Euro debt crisis, European governments figure out the way to maintain the high welfare level by increasing the public debt they hold. In our paper, we would like to investigate the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP by constructing a micro-based dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) under a closed economy. We focus on discussing the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP which maximizes social welfare in economy while putting the government expenditure into households’ utility. That is to say, the government expenditure will influence the marginal utilities of households. We find out that as a government decides to raise the debt to GDP ratio; it will crowd out both private consumption and government expenditure. Because households will expect to pay more tax in the future, they will decrease their consumption and increase their saving; high debt ratio means government should have paid more interest payment in the future. Also as the ratio of public debt to GDP rises, the social welfare becomes lower. Thus, in our findings, the optimal debt ratio to GDP should be 0. Keywords: DSGE, Government expenditure, Marginal utility, Public debt, GDP, Social welfare

本文建構代理人基之社會網路新凱因動態隨機一般均衡模型(Social Network-Based DSGE model)，並分別使用權衡性門檻型泰勒法則與一般線型泰勒法則作為代理人基之社會網路新凱因斯動態一般均衡模型中的貨幣政策方程式，模擬產出缺口、通貨膨脹、利率等總體經濟變數資料，接著利用模擬資料，探討不同網路結構對產出缺口、通貨膨脹等總體經濟變數的影響，同時比較權衡性貨幣政策與法則性貨幣政策穩定經濟的有效性。 　　透過產出缺口與通貨膨脹的波動性分析，本研究發現某些特定社會網路結構的影響力大於貨幣政策的影響力，決定了經濟變數的波動程度。在完全連結網路(Fully)的結構下，通貨膨脹與產出缺口的波動度明顯低於其他結構，而無標度網路(Scalefree)的結構會使產出與通膨的波動程度最大。經過驗證，本研究發現群聚度大、平均路徑短的網路結構內節點之間資訊流通速度較快，對穩定經濟有正面助益；相反的，由於無標度網路強大的中心性，使該網路內指標性節點對其餘節點具有龐大影響力，增加節點內決策的不確定性，連帶造成經濟的大幅波動。另外，在相同的網路結構下比較權衡與法則貨幣政策，研究結果指出權衡性政策會造成較大的產出缺口波動，但對抑制通貨膨脹波動的效果較佳；相對的，法則性政策對產出缺口的穩定效果較好，但卻無法兼顧通貨膨脹的波動性。 / We construct an agent-based New Keynesian DSGE model (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) with different social network structures to investigate the effects of the rule and discretion monetary policy. According to our simulation results, we find the economic stability depends on the specific social network structure rather than the monetary policy basis like rule and discretion. Generally speaking, the more average path length (the less average clustering coefficient) the network structure is, the more economic fluctuation would be. Also, the results show that scalefree network will lead the most dramatic economic fluctuations. These results are ascribed to scale -free’s high centrality. However, if the social network structure is too complicate to control, the central banker can only manipulate the monetary policy to stabilize the economy. With different policy basis, we find the rule monetary policy will lead less output gap volatility.

2016年全球半導體產值約 3,270 億美元，台灣半導體產值佔全球的23%，繼續蟬聯全球第二大半導體產業大國，排行僅次於美國。此外，台灣以出口為導向，根據我國財政部統計，2017上半年積體電路出口金額占整體出口總值的27.6%，是我國最主要的出口產品，可見半導體產業對台灣的影響力不言而喻。 近年來半導體併購浪潮興起，台灣廠商也無法置身事外，最受矚目非日月光與矽品的非合意併購案莫屬。一般學術論文對於非合意併購案的探討，著重於併購前的動機與併購後的綜效，鮮少討論雙方在併購過程中的攻防。故本研究欲以動態競爭觀點，並考量政府對併購成敗的影響，來找出矽品最後同意日月光共組控股公司之提案的原因，並分析此合併案對全球封測產業所造成的影響。 本研究發現雙方在合併前，應用產品及地區的市場共同性，分別呈現上升及下降趨勢，透過收購矽品，日月光不僅能追趕其主要競爭對手在車用電子的領先地位，更可以降低營收過度集中於北美的風險。另外，雙方在台灣及中國的專利申請數量有下降趨勢，但在美國專利的申請數有明顯增加且資源相似性也呈上升趨勢，故推論日月光收購矽品可鞏固其在北美市場的領導地位。總而言之，雖然日矽合併案被外界視為雙贏結果，但客戶轉單、中國商務部的限制條件及收購溢價偏高可能使得此合併綜效有限。在面對中國封測產商崛起、封測產業的市場集中度上升及半導體產業中下游界限越來越不明確的情況下，雙方合併為必然之勢。 / The worldwide semiconductor market grew 1.1% in 2016 to $338.9 billion USD, in which Taiwan accounts for 23% of the total output. Taiwan continues to rank as the world's second largest semiconductor industry, with the first being America. Taiwan is export oriented, and from the statistical data provided by the Ministry of Finance, the shipment of integrated circuit exports accounted for 27.6% of gross export value in the first two quarters of 2017. This indicates that integrated circuit is an important export product and that the semiconductor industry is of great importance to Taiwan. The recent and unprecedented M&A waves in the semiconductor industry caused major changes and created impact on Taiwanese semiconductor firm. The recent case that drew most attention is the M&A between ASE (Advanced Semiconductor Engineering, Inc.) and SPIL (Siliconware Precision Industries Co., Ltd). While most academic theses focus on the acquiring firm’s motive and post-M&A synergy, the offense and defense strategies during the M&A process are rarely explored. This research aims to focus on reasons why SPIL agreed on ASE’s proposal to form a joint venture holding company and the impact on the global OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) industry after this M&A. This thesis utilized the dynamic competitive perspective and identifies government’s impact on M&A. The study finds that before the merger, the commonality of product shows an upward trend while the commonality of region market presents a downward direction. This merger not only assists ASE to catch up with its leading competitors in the automotive electronics sectors, but also reduce the revenue concentration risk, given that its major sales is in North America. In addition, the number of patents filed by both companies in Taiwan and China has declined, but the number in the United States has increased significantly along with an escalating resource similarity. Therefore, the research concludes that the acquisition of SPIL can consolidate ASE’s leading position in the North American market. To sum up, the merger of ASE and SPIL is regarded as win-win outcome. However, the M&A has risks, such as customer attrition, restriction from The Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China (MOFCOM) and merger overpayment. Such uncertainties may reduce synergy. Nevertheless, in the face of the rise of China's OSAT business, the market concentration of OSAT industry, and the increasingly unclear boundary between the middle and downstream firms, the merger of the two firms is inevitable.

本文的研究目的為，在一個包含銀行部門的動態隨機一般均衡模型的架構中，探討流動性覆蓋比率限制在利率的信用管道中所扮演的角色以及其對政體經濟的影響為何。在銀行的資產配置決策內生的情形下，加入流動性覆蓋比率的限制，透過放款的勞動成本與抵押品價值來刻畫金融摩擦；本文發現當經濟體系遭受生產與放款的外生衝擊時，流動性覆蓋比率的限制會增強政策利率的信用管道效果，並且相較於無流動性覆蓋比率限制之模型而言，具流動性覆蓋比率限制的模型，其銀行資產配置的變動幅度與金融摩擦的程度皆較大。 / The main purpose of this paper is to explore the role of the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) in the credit channel and how it influences the overall economy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with banking sector. Commercial banks endogenously choose their optimal portfolio of assets under the liquidity coverage ratio restriction. On the other hand, we describe the financial friction through the labor cost of making loans and collateral value. We find that when the economy is exposed to exogenous shocks in production and lending, the liquidity coverage ratio will enhance the effect of credit channel. Compared with the model with no LCR restriction, the degree of change of the bank asset allocation and the financial friction are larger in the model with LCR restriction.

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:一般研究(C) 課題番号:04640655 研究代表者:溝口 明 研究期間:1992-1994年度

本研究目的在於探討投資等級債券信用價差是否存在外溢效果。信用價差是建構各種信用衍生性金融商品的基礎，惟目前學術界及業界都著眼在信用價差的拆解。信用價差可拆解成預期違約損失、稅的溢酬及信用風險溢酬。投資等級債券的信用價差來自於預期違約損失、稅的溢酬的部分較少，絕大多數來自於信用風險溢酬。信用風險溢酬係系統性影響信用價差的因素，此因素造成不同投資等級債券的信用價差間具有共整合的現象，進而引發外溢效果。然而並無人對於信用價差外溢效果作一深入探討。本研究利用目前學術界盛行的Panel模型的研究方法，對各種投資等級的債券的信用價差進行Panel Unit Root Tests、Panel Cointegration Tests及Panel Spillover Effect Tests，以求發現債券信用價差外溢效果存在與否的證據。 本文以iBoxx Index成份債券作為研究標的，利用Panel研究方法得到以下結論: 1.根據研究結果顯示，各種信評等級的債券的信用價差存在單根問題。 2.不同投資等級信評債券的信用價差擁有共整合關係。 3.不同投資等級信用評等的債券間信用價差外溢效果存在。且愈是相 鄰信評等級債券的外溢效果愈為顯著，例如BBB等級信用價差發生變動引發信評AAA等級信用價差變動的幅度便沒有AA等級信用價差變動引發AAA等級信用價差變動來得強烈。外溢效果係不對稱，當最高投資等級信評發生變動時，最低投資等級債券變動最為激烈;而最低投資等級信評發生波動時，最高投資等級債券發生變動的幅度就較小。 4.本研究支持不同債信評等的債券存在同向的外溢效果。 / This paper investigates the spillover effect in the investment grade bonds using the recently developed Panel Unit Root Tests, Panel Cointegrations Tests, Panel FMOLS and Panel DOLS techniques. Investment grade bonds’ credit spreads are found to be nonstationary and to be cointegrated in panels. This paper finds evidence of spillover effects.

本研究的個案是系統單晶片企業，系統單晶片是電子系統的核心，因此該企業對於下游電子產品的發展扮演著舉足輕重的角色，是積體電路產業價值鍊最高價值的一環。本研究的主要目的是藉著一個極為成功的系統單晶片設計公司的成長軌跡與其相關的產業歷史，透過還原當時的時空環境了解並分析其經營策略的本質，以建立適合系統單晶片設計公司之經營策略本質的分析架構，同時實證其分析的結果，藉以尋求其研究問題「後進者的成功經營策為何?」的解答，並從個案企業的歷史中找出常被忽略的寶貴的經營智慧，而另一目的是能夠藉著收集具有時間標記的經營事件，提供豐富的研究素材給有興趣系統單晶片設計產業做更進一步或其他主題的研究。 一開始的動機是為了解答「後進者的成功經營策為何?」這個問題，但研究之後發現這是一個很有可能沒有通用解的問題，因此本研究轉從「策略本質的思考」出發，試著從個案公司的各個不同系統單晶片產品及其下游相關的產業的事件中，進行分析、推理、歸納與實證所關心的議題，其中個案分析主要包括四個產業：（一）光碟機產業；（二）DVD播放機產業；（三）數位電視機產業；（四）手機產業。其中每一個產業的故事都以某一個案的企業發展為中心，以時間的先後呈現，描述當時的產業環境、企業狀態、決策的因果關係，以及如何執行與執行結果。為了解答「後進者的成功經營策為何?」這個的大問題，同時從個案的分析與理論推論研究，從不同方向的思考並嚴謹的歸納與分析提出以下的研究發現：（一）從行銷理論分析策略本質；（二）以利潤方程式分析策略本質；（三）SOC晶片訂價策略；（四）從動態能耐的架構分析策略本質；（五）後進者的經營策略；（六）成長與新產品選擇的策略；(七)經營智慧的闡述。希望能提供企業經營者策略思考的架構，而建構出適合自己的經營策略。 本研究藉著邱志聖「行銷理論」中產品的「外顯」與「內隱」之價值分析方法，發展出「（一）從行銷理論分析策略本質」之研究發現中一系列的理論，並以此為基礎，輔助論證其他的研究發現，再根據「利潤彈性」的定義，提出可以以嚴謹的數學証明的一系列有關訂價的創新的理論，以此為基礎進而提出「（三）SOC晶片訂價策略」，再藉著「（四）從動態能耐的架構分析策略本質」的個案研究，發現組織的能耐與低成本優勢有的強烈的相關性，整合以上相關的研究發現，進而提出「（五）後進者的經營策略」，以創新「先進者支援的兩難」理論為切入點，並根據以上研究的結論，提出「後進者的成功經營策為何?」的參考解答。當企業成功之後，必然會面臨成長的困境，因此本研究從個案的深入分析，提出所應採取的「（六）成長與新產品選擇的策略」，以及最後提醒經營者一些知易行難的「(七)經營智慧的闡述」。 根據TEEC的「動態能耐」的理論，企業的策略深受「路徑相依性」的影響，且當不同企業的內部狀態或外部環境不同時其所需的策略也不一樣，因此後進者僅採用模仿的策略是不易成功，所以企業必需要思索適合自身的策略，並透過策略本質的分析，檢驗其策略是否有效，然而任何策略分析的方法都有其盲點，因 此分析或擬定策略時要依據競爭對手與產業特性選數種適合分析的架構進行分析，才能夠互相印證與互補，並思考其矛盾之處以避免致命的盲點，因此本論文提出專為系統單晶片設計企業策略本質的思考之架構以檢驗其策略有效性。 / The System on Chip (SOC) is the core of the electric system of an electric end product. Therefore, the firms that design and produce the SOC play the critical role in the development of the end product and contribute the most valuable part in the IC industry chain. The purposes of this paper are to develope the strategies and wisdoms of management as well as the frame structure for analyzing the essence of management strategies for the late comer. In the case study, there are the companies have been very successful in the world. In the cases, there are a lot of time-marked traces of the growth of the successful firm and its related industry history so that we can clarify what and why the strategies were executed at that time by analyzing the sequences of the management decisions and their consequences. Additionally, I hope the case stories can be utilized for the further research or another related research. Initially in this research we focused only on the topic of the question“What are the effective management strategies for the late comer”. However, after further studies we found that the general answers for the big question might not exit; therefore, we adjusted the research direction and converted to focus on the topic of the essence of the analysis of the management strategies. In the studied case, there are four different kinds of SOC products including optic storage chip, DVD player chip, digital TV chip and handset chip and their related industries. In the story of each product case, the main stream of the story keeps close track of the situation of the management decisions making, the status of the execution by the studied firms and their consequences in timing sequence so that the evolution of the environment of the firms and the industries can be shown clearly. To study for the answer of the big question “What are the effective management strategies for the late comer”, firstly we analyze the cases and simultaneously study the related theories. Secondly we transform the big question into the following seven research subtopics: (1) Analyzing the essence of the management strategies based on the marketing promotion theory, (2) Analyzing the essence of the management strategies by the net profit, (3) Pricing strategies for the SOC products, (4) Analyzing the essence of the management strategies by the perspective of the“Dynamic capabilities”, (5) Management strategies for the late comer, (6) Strategies for the growth and new products selection, and (7) Wisdom of management. Finally, we hope this thesis can provide managers with the frame structure for both thinking and analyzing the strategies so that managers can develop the best strategies for themselves. There are some kinds of logical relation among the theories developed in the above subtopics. The foundation of theories of“Analyzing the essence of the management strategies”is the value proposition that bases on the analysis of the explicit value and implicit value in the marketing promotion theory. Theories of“Analyzing the essence of the management strategies”are one of the most fundamental pillars that support the other theories in this thesis. According to the definition of elasticity of net profit in this thesis, we can deduce some innovative and valuable theories by the rigid mathematical reasoning. Furthermore, we can develop the innovative theories “(3) Pricing strategies for the SOC product”. In addition to developing the above theories, we apply the theory of “Dynamic capabilities” to analyze the strategies in the case stories to find the effective cost advantage is supported by the capabilities of organization with effectiveness and efficiency. We integrate the above theories to propose “(5) Management strategies for the late comer”. A firm will eventually confront the saturation of the growth after its successful startup. To solve this issue, we base on the deep investigation of the cases and some theories developed in this thesis, we propose “(6) Strategies for growth as well as new products selection”. Finally from the case stories, we abstract some both valuable and critical wisdoms that are easy understood but they are hard to be practiced due to the human natural weakness. According to “Dynamic Capabilities and Strategic Management” by TEECE, the strategies for a firm strongly depend on the path that the firm has experienced, thus the imitative strategies from its rival is usually not effective just because their paths they passed are different, not to mention that neither their environments nor the conditions of the firms are totally different. Therefore, a firm works out any strategies and then its managers have to carefully check the effectiveness of the strategies by analyzing their essence of the strategies and then modify them before they are executed. However, any framework for analyzing strategy has its blindspots. To avoid the strategic blindspots, we have to use several different and suitable frameworks to analyze the strategies, and then check if there are any conflicts among the results from different frameworks analyzing, we have to deliberate to find why and how to solve the conflicts. Therefore, we develop a new frame work that appropriately analyzes the strategies of both the SOC firm-level and their products with a totally different perspective