藉由研究無線通信產業標準的制訂過程與主流標準的形成機制，本研究探討過去有關影響產業標準建立的文獻與個案，提出系統發展過程中，各影響因素扮演的角色與提供的功能，以瞭解在無線通信產業中，影響一標準脫穎而出成為市場主流的關鍵因素。本研究主要的研究發現如下： 一、政府的政策對標準後續發展相當重要，若政府態度是採開放競爭，則將在境內形成多種標準競爭而耗掉大部分能量，未來在標準向外推展上較吃虧。反之政府若能主導統一標準，常能使相關資源更集中焦點來發展單一標準，未來對外推展上較能成功。 二、協會能否發揮協商能力，使各業者提出之標準能相結合，是主流標準形成之關鍵之一，協會若能使各業者放棄成見，取得共識形成單一標準將有助於標準之發展。 三、對標準主導者而言，若能成為主流標準確實擁有很多潛在利益，為爭取標準的支持度，便會有很多遊說及策略聯盟產生，若能取得越多成員支持，常較能形成主流標準，因此標準擁有者若能降低權利金門檻，甚至將其免費授權並公開架構，標準成為市場主流之成長速度將會加快。但若成員過於複雜也容易阻礙標準演進的進度。 四、第三代行動電話的應用以多媒體為主，這是相當革命性的嚐試，故能否找到消費者公認的殺手級應用服務（killer application）成為成敗關鍵要素之一。 五、標準形成之發源地需有足夠的經濟規模量的支持，才能累積足夠資源向境外擴展。 六、標準形成在發酵期必須取得單一標準共識，在漸進變化期於境內快速建立成功經驗，並順利將成功複製於境外地區，這個模式較能成功成為主流標準。另在建立標準時需有明確的願景與目標、具國際化的規格設計，才可減少在對外擴展時之障礙。 / This thesis is intended to make explicit the roles played and functions provided by the various factors in the process of system development by means of an investigation of the process of the formation of a wireless communications standard and the mechanism that makes it a dominant. By studying the documents and cases on the factors affecting the establishment of a standard, we have come to recognize six fundamentals that make it stand out as a dominant. These six fundamentals are summarized as follows: 1. The policy made by the government plays an essential part in the further development of the formation of a given standard. If the government adopts an attitude of open competition, then lots of related resources will be wasted on the keen competition between vying forces in the local market, which is, in turn, detrimental to outward expansion. On the contrary, if the government integrates the related resources and helps form a unitary standard, the standard may succeed in opening other markets. 2. The Association is also an important positive contributor in the process of the formation of a unitary standard. The Association should do its best to mediate between each vying standard to reach an agreement and adopt a unitary standard, which is definitely instrumental in the further development. 3. For those who want to direct the formation of a standard and get the tremendous potential profits from it, they will do a lot of lobbying and form strategic alliances to attract more supports for the standard. When succeeding in doing so, the owners of the unitary standard can speed up the growth of its market by lowering the royalty and license limit, or even by opening its architecture with a free authorization. 4. The application of the third-generation cellular phones features multi-media, which is a considerably revolutionary attempt. Therefore, the success of it depends on whether the standard can come up with a killer application that appeals to consumers. 5. The local market from which the standard originates should be big enough to support it, so the standard can stand firm on the strong basis and reach out for other markets. 6. The formation of a standard should be based on an agreement of a unitary standard at the ferment stage. And at the transition stage, it should build up a successful experience as soon as possible in the local market and then successfully duplicate the model in the international ones. Besides, a definite goal and a clear vision as well as internationalized regulations and designs all contribute to lifting the barriers in its expanding outwards.

本文除第一章緒論及末章結論外，全文共分四章。第二章為產業結構變動之文獻回顧，針對產業結構變動之相關理論與實證文獻做整理分析，再導入產業政策之理論，最後指出本文之最適研究之基礎；第三章為台灣產業結構變動之時序性分析，將民國四十二年來分為四個階段︰第一階段的進口替代期、出口擴張期、第二階段的進口替代與出口擴張期及產業轉型暨升級期，分別討論各階段之產業結構變動；第四章為國內外環境變遷對台灣產業結構變動之影響，主要探討國內產業變化、兩岸經貿交流問題及投資、與國際區域經濟整合趨勢對台灣產業結構及產業環境的影響；第五章為台灣產業政策對產業結構變動之影響，利用實證分析結果來探討產業政策對結構變動之影響，再與產業政策最成功的日本做比較，視我國產業政策之優劣成敗，以期能展望未來的產業政策最適方向。

以往，北臺灣客家史常被視作「鐵板一塊」地論述，而其論述焦點之一往往也著重在枋寮義民信仰，此或會使人以為北臺灣客家人都崇敬義民信仰。然本文從清代北臺灣族群關係史角度，提出以下觀點： 一、 苗栗義民廟歷史幾與新竹枋寮義民廟同樣悠久，然今日其祭祀圈卻僅三里大，並未如枋寮義民廟般發展為當地一大區域信仰，其主因與清代苗栗堡境的閩客械鬥風氣不發達有關。清代苗栗堡境西側的「北大肚山系」，與東側的「關刀山山脈」，對於當地族群關係演變的意義，在於「北大肚山系」山勢雖不如「關刀山山脈」般險峻，但該山系卻相對使苗栗堡客、閩兩族群的接觸機會，未如枋寮義民祭祀圈十四大庄，或中港堡、吞霄堡、「南桃園東側」等地區來得多，故不易使苗栗堡的客、閩兩族群，發生大規模接觸與衝突的機會。這也造成清代苗栗客家人的族群意識，在林爽文事變後百餘年間，隨世代交替而逐漸降低。是故苗栗義民信仰並未同於枋寮義民信仰般，有因為閩粵械鬥氛圍較濃厚的歷史背景來發展「區隔粵閩」、「強調粵人忠義精神」之族群認同符號，而成為一大區域信仰。 二、 在清代苗栗義民信仰中，有一重要制度為「苗栗義民祀327位會友」制，其為清代苗栗地方人士，可藉由出資金來加入「苗栗義民祀」會友，且其會友身分不但可世襲，百餘年來又不斷有新會友加入，最終成為清晚期的「苗栗義民祀327位會友」制。又「327會友」制，並沒有歷史需求發展為「區分會友間階級高低」，與重視「神牌位序差異」之模式，「苗栗義民祀327位會友」都在該廟左偏殿，以一面木牌陪祀，即可代表清代苗栗義民廟「327會友」在該廟信仰者心中之歷史貢獻。此外，苗栗義民信仰也主祀真正殉難於林爽文事件的「義士眾姓諸公」、淡水廳幕僚壽同春、與淡水廳同知程峻之模式，也是不同於枋寮義民信仰之處。 三、 清代苗栗堡西境地勢較為高聳的「關刀山山脈」，在清中期時，隘線分佈於此山脈西麓，故當時該山脈尚是非常重要的「區隔漢原」之地理形勢。但約在清中後期之際，因苗栗客家人往東越過該山脈開墾樟腦利益，也使「後龍溪上游區」，即今獅潭鄉與大湖鄉等地，最終成為客庄。而其中較重要的漢人拓殖勢力，有獅潭、南湖等庄的黃南球勢力，與大湖吳定新家族勢力，以及拓出桂竹林一帶的劉緝光等勢力，而「後龍溪上游區」有無義民信仰，也與這三勢力分佈有關。清晚期的黃南球，其前半生經歷較少與苗栗堡有淵源，双與枋寮義民信仰分佈區域較有關係，故黃南球拓殖出獅潭與南湖二庄後，也在二庄各置一間義民廟，其皆分香自枋寮義民廟，以祀奉死於漢原械鬥的骨骸。而清晚期吳定新家族勢力，雖也為大湖庄帶來義民信仰，但其他大湖庄民不見得都信之。故清代大湖庄民初建大湖義民廟時，很可能已被該庄人視為陰廟，而將該廟設在遠離大湖庄市街中心外的「下坪仔」。又該廟石製主神牌，同時書寫「萬姓同歸．褒忠義民」，是雜揉了枋寮義民信仰，與漢人社會常視為「陰廟」的萬善爺性質。大抵而言，「後龍溪上游區」的獅潭、大湖、南湖等三間義民廟，是双應清晚期當地漢原關 係緊張下的歷史產物，因此也在清代北臺灣族群關係史的意義上，與本為區隔閩粵為主的枋寮義民信仰有所差異。 四、 枋寮義民信仰乃清代嘉、道以來，竹塹當地「城╱閩」與「郊╱粵」的閩粵械鬥風氣下之產物，「郊區」的枋寮義民祭祀圈內之粵人，係藉此突顯「粵人忠義於朝」精神，期盼朝廷能對當時弱勢的臺灣粵人聲張正義。而約自嘉、道以降，枋寮義民信仰祭祀圈的粵人，又逐漸透過枋寮義民信仰十四大庄制度，讓該區粵人能被組織於各大庄的公號頭家，與枋寮義民廟方各大姓家族之領導下，以凝聚共同的粵人族群共識與力量，來與淡水廳政經中心在的竹塹城閩人相抗衡。而清代北臺灣閩粵械鬥同樣激烈情況者，至少尚含「南桃園東側」與清代中港堡境內之客庄。可是「南桃園東側」與清代中港堡客家人，一開始並未出現特別崇敬義民信仰的氛圍，至少在中港堡的頭份義民廟方面，該廟乃遲至清代光緒11-13年左右，才由當地客家人自枋寮義民廟分香引進。清代頭分庄客家人引進義民信仰的歷史背景因素之一，自與從嘉、道以降的閩客械鬥風氣氛圍有關，然其引進之時間點之所以遲至光緒朝，則是與金廣福勢力拓墾大隘地區成熟畢，使中港堡與竹塹「郊區」兩地粵庄交通風險相對降低有關。

本研究以區域創新系統觀點，分析在兩岸區位優勢差異下，影響台灣製造業廠商兩岸研發區位選擇及廠商研發網絡治理情形，強化既往研究未同時關注台商、兩岸地區及偏重個案研究的不足之處；經實證結果發現，區位優勢、研發部門類型、市場規模、政策條件、產業群聚、知識流通及研發經費投入等變數為台商兩岸研發區位佈點的影響變數，除了市場規模及市場型研發部門與研發區位選擇呈現負向關係外，其他皆與區位選擇呈現正向關係，顯示除因台灣市場規模太小造成台商選擇至對岸設立研發部門外，台灣在其他表現上皆較對岸具有吸引力，台灣仍具有不可忽視的區域創新能量，建議政府部門應在產業政策上有新作為，提供廠商各項研發所需要的協助，以吸引更多本土企業於台灣設立研發部門，以不斷累積及提升台灣的研發競爭力。 區域創新系統強調區域內行動者的網絡連結及互動，形塑該地區無可取代的區域特色，為彌補研發區位選擇的量化研究，無法表達出區域創新系統內廠商在地化網絡連結及互動的情況，本研究在研發網絡治理部分以華碩企業集團為研究對象，探討其如何運用本身及當地資源，建立在地化網絡及維持網絡關係運作等網絡治理議題，經研究結果發現，由於華碩企業集團具有豐富的研發經驗、高水準的研發人員及雄厚的資金，扮演在地化網絡主要行動者的角色，掌握與其他行動者（例如政府部門、研究機構、大專院校及其他廠商等）間關係建立的主導權，在研發技術的傳遞上係以公司內部的垂直組織網絡為主要傳遞路徑，與區域創新系統內各行動者的網絡關係及在地鑲嵌程度不強。 / With the viewpoint of regional innovation system, this paper analyzes the impacts of R&D locational choices and enterporises’ R&D network governance that manufacturing firms in Taiwan have under the differentiation of locational advantages between China and Taiwan as well as consolidates some points which are incompletely focused in the past on Taiwanese firms, two sides of Taiwan Strait, and overweighing case-studies. The empirical evidences bring that the impacts of variable to locational distribution of Taiwanese manufacturing firms across the strait are many: locational advantages, the types of R&D unit, the scales of market, policy conditions, industrial clusters, knowledge flows and R&D investment. Except for the negative correlations between the scale of market/type of R&D unit and R&D locational choices, the rest variables have the positive correlation with R&D locational choices, which means that, barring that the scale of market in Taiwan is so small that Taiwanese firms choose to institute R&D spots in China, other variables in Taiwan are more attractive than those in China; Taiwan possesses innegligible energy of regional creativity. The suggestion is that the government has to take new actions on industrial policy, providing the assistance to R&D that enterprises need, in order to attract more and more local enterprises to set up their R&D functions in Taiwan for accumulating and advancing Taiwan’s competitive power continuously. Regional innovation system emphasizes on actors’ network linkages and interactions within one region, shaping irreplaceable regional characteristics for that region in order to atone for the quantitative research of R&D locational choices which cannot express the situation of enterprises’ localized network linkages and interactions within regional innovation system. Taking ASUS as example, this research, in terms of network governance, confers how ASUS draws on own and local resources for network governance issues like establishing localized networks and maintaining the operation of network relations. After the analysis, it is found that, on account of ASUS with abundant R&D experiences, high-level R&D staffs and tremendous funds, ASUS plays the role as key actor in the localized network, controlling the predominant power established by relations between other actors (i.e. public sectors, research institutes, colleges/universities, other enterprises and so on). In terms of R&D technology transfer, vertical networks in the inner company as main transfer passage is less attached with every actor’s network relation and its local embeddedness within regional innovation system.

區域發展差異現象一直以來為國家政策所關注，而近年來台灣地區失業率有逐漸上升的趨勢，各縣市之表現亦大相逕庭，顯示各地區存在失業差異現象。過去研究較少以空間觀點觀察失業相關議題，此外，關於區域差異因素對失業率之影響鮮少納入政府規劃因素。因此，本研究以空間自相關分析方法檢測失業是否具有空間相關性及聚集性，並應用長期追蹤資料（panel data）迴歸模型，以人口、產業、所得、都市化程度及政府規劃因素，分析台灣22縣市1988至2008近二十年來各區域差異因素對失業率之影響，藉由實證結果提出相關都市及產業政策之建議。實證結果發現，台灣失業分佈具有一定程度的空間相關性，且高低失業率在各縣市間亦有聚集現象。再者，依固定效果模型實證結果發現人口數、工業及服務業就業者百分比、都市化程度、工業區面積百分比與失業率間呈現顯著正向關係；經濟發展支出百分比與失業率呈現顯著負向關係；區域固定效果，即排除自變數影響下，各縣市本身區域特質對失業率之影響，結果顯示台北縣及桃園縣之係數為負向，南投縣、嘉義縣、台東縣與花蓮縣之係數為正向；時間固定效果方面，大部分年度皆具顯著性，且係數有由負轉正之趨勢，代表特定時間衝擊會對失業率造成影響。 / Differences in regional development have been a focus on national policies. Recently, there is a increasing trend in the unemployment rate in Taiwan, and it also differs from cities and counties, indicating there exists differences in regional unemployment. Previous research rarely combined unemployment issues with spatial perspective. In addition, the effect of regional discrepant factors on the unemployment rate rarely take government planning factors into account. Therefore, this study uses spatial autocorrelation analysis to detect whether unemployment has spatial correlation and aggregation, and applies panel data regression model with population, industry, income, the degree of urbanization, and government planning factors to analyze the effect of regional discrepant factors on the unemployment rate in Taiwan's 22 cities and counties from 1988 to 2008. According to the empirical results, we come up with some urban and industrial policy proposals. Empirical results indicate that the distribution of unemployment in Taiwan has a certain degree of spatial correlation, and high or low unemployment rate also has aggregation among cities and counties. Furthermore, according to the results of the fixed effects model, population, the percentage of industrial and service sector employment, the degree of urbanization, and the percentage of industrial area show a significant positive relationship with unemployment rate. The percentage of expenditures for economic development shows a significant negative relationship with unemployment rate. Region-specific fixed effect, which exclude the influence of independent variables, is the effect of regional characteristics of counties and cities on the unemployment rate. This result shows the coefficient of Taipei County and Taoyuan County is negative, and the coefficient of Nantou County, Chiayi County, Taitung County and Hualien County is positive. As for time-specific fixed effect, almost all years are significant, and the coefficient has the trend from negative to positive, indicating that a particular time impact will affect the unemployment rate.

2010年12月25日在臺灣的地方自治史上產生了前所未有的重大變革，也就是五大直轄市的形成，同時也使馬英九總統在2008年總統大選期間，所提出的「三都十五縣」的政見破局。但這樣的結果，對改制前的臺北縣而言，可說是完成追逐了30年，但卻仍遙不可及的夢想，也結束了長期淪為次等公民的不平等待遇。 升格後的新北市與臺北市在地方自治的體制上雖可說已是並駕齊驅，但是就兩者的發展歷史而言，新北市目前仍處於初始的立基階段，尤其是新北市的29個行政區，起源於改制前臺北縣29個鄉鎮市的自治體。在改制之初29個行政區，除了在人口密度、土地面積上有相當大的差異之外，最主要的是地理環境的先天條件，使得29個行政區呈現不同的城鄉風貌。 新北市首要面臨的課題，就是進行29個行政區的重整工作，在過去臺北縣發展一鄉一特色的基礎上，各行政區原具有社區產業的發展條件，但在過去鄉鎮市自治時期，難免因為各自政治立場的不同而分立，形成政治地理，以致造成政府當局資源整合不易。再者，原有的行政區疆界雖因為都市開發，產生地域疆界不明的現況，但在過去鄉鎮市自治時代，行政區域調整容易引發藩籬割據的疑慮，所以新北市行政區歷經了40年未曾調整。 升格後的新北市在五都之中，是人口最多的直轄市，在區域經濟崛起及國際城市競爭的氛圍中，各直轄市無不致力發展各自潛能，期以提升國際能見度。然而城市發展首重基礎的建設，行政區劃是新北市行政資源分配的基礎，各行政區發展皆屬新北市政府全權統籌規劃，如何以最適的行政區劃調整藍圖，勾勒未來新北市發展的願景與區域發展特色，是市政府重要的課題。行政區劃調整工作需有妥善完整的規劃與配套，應考量民意的趨勢，要有一次劃定，革除行政區界劃定不明的決心。 本研究指出根據公共選擇理論，以及區域治理、公共服務及廣域行政的概念，新北市應以現有公務機關服務轄區分布現況、市議員及立委選舉區劃分、生活圈、歷史、地理環境等現況來研擬未來新北市行政區藍圖，並探索最適的行政區劃藍圖，供市政府做為行政區劃時的參考，更有助於新北市行政區劃調整共識的形成。 / A revolutionary change of local self-governance in Taiwan history has occurred since December 25, 2010; that is the formation of five municipalities. This formation broke President Ma Ying-Jeou’s policy of “three cities fifteen counties” raised in Presidential Election of 2008. However, to pre-reformed Taipei County, the formation made its reachless dream which had been pursued for thirty years realized. The formation also ended the long-term unfair treatment of being the second-grade citizens. Upgraded New Taipei City is running neck to neck with Taipei City in terms of local self-governance. Regarding the histories of the two, however, the former is still under the fundamental stage, especially the 29 administrative areas of New Taipei City, which used to be 29 regional municipalities of the townships of pre-reformed Taipei County. In the beginning of the reformation for the 29 administrative areas, it was the precondition of geography that made them have different countryside landscapes in addition to a big difference of population density and land area. The first lesson New Taipei City will undergo is the work of administrative area adjustment for the 29 administrative areas. Upon “one township one feature” policy on which pre-formed Taipei County had made an effort, each administrative area had its own strength of developing community industry. During the past self-governance period of the townships, nonetheless, it was inevitable to see the area separation due to political diversity. Political geography had thus occurred and made it more difficult for the government to make resource integration. Furthermore, although there was boundary ambiguity in the original boundaries of the administrative areas on account of urban development, to avoid the problem of opposition to the splittism against administrative area adjustment, the administrative areas of New Taipei City had not been adjusted for forty years during the past self-governance period of the townships. Upgraded New Taipei City is the one with the highest population among the five municipalities. Affected by the rise of regional economic and international urban competition, none of the municipalities slacks on developing its potential in an attempt to enhance its international visibility. With respect to urban development, infrastructure is firstly emphasized and administrative division is considered to be the fundamental work to New Taipei City when administrative resource allocation is being made. It is New Taipei City government that has full authority to make an overall plan of the development of each administrative area. Therefore, the question “how to sketch the forthcoming version of the development of New Taipei City and the features of regional development on the most appropriate blueprint of administrative division?” becomes an important issue to the city government. The work of administrative division adjustment needs to be well planned and go with corresponding measures. Public opinion should be taken into account and the determination of “once only” and eliminating boundary ambiguity is also required. This study points out that, based on public choice theory and the concepts of regional governance, public service and cooperative administration, New Taipei City should make a blueprint of forthcoming administrative areas according to the present distribution of the service districts under jurisdiction of official departments, the division of the constituencies of city councilors and legislative committees, living domains, histories, and geographical surroundings. Meanwhile, to provide as references for the city government to make administrative division, the most appropriate blueprint of administrative division needs to be sought. It also helps on coming to a mutual understanding of the administrative division adjustment for New Taipei City.

中國大陸自改革開放之後，其經濟成長之快速，使得全球眾多的學者投入中國大陸議題的研究。隨著世界的開發，有限的資源不斷被使用，造成資源愈來愈少，也由於資源的稀少性，因此市場經濟方為競爭的經濟。參與競爭必須首先具備競爭力，作為國民經濟重要組成單元的區域經濟，如何應對日趨激烈的競爭，如何培育構建、提升保持具有區域特色的競爭力，就成為迫在眉睫的問題 本研究之研究目的主要有以下幾點：第一，希望能藉由相關理論文獻，解釋財政地方分權對中國省、市之間競爭力是否會有所影響或是關聯，將以此為本研究之理論基礎，並且進行實證的檢驗；第二，將以1994年中國財政改革以後之財政相關資料，利用中國31個省、市的追蹤資料，資料蒐集期間涵蓋2000年至2008年，以各年各省、市的綜合競爭力作為衡量該省、市的競爭力指標，以期能夠了解各地區競爭力的影響情形； 第三，本研究建立一個二階段固定效果模型，來檢視中國31個省市財政分權對其綜合競爭力的影響，並將各省市的情形做歸納；第四，從實證模型中發現，財政地方分權與區域綜合競爭力間的關聯性為一非線性關係且具有U型曲線關係；最後，利用實證結果來提供具體的政策建議。

由於誤差與人口數成反比，資料多寡影響統計分析的穩定性及可靠性，因此常用於推估大區域人口的方法，往往無法直接套用至縣市及其以下層級，尤其當小區域內部地理、社會或經濟的異質性偏高時，人口推估將更為棘手。本文以兩個面向對臺灣小區域人口進行探討：其一、臺灣人口結構漸趨老化，勢必牽動政府政策與資源分配，且臺灣各縣市的人口老化速度不一，有必要針對各地特性發展適當的小區域人口推估方法；其二、因為壽命延長，全球皆面臨長壽風險(Longevity Risk)的挑戰，包括政府退休金制度規劃、壽險保費釐定等，由於臺灣各地死亡率變化不盡相同，發展小區域死亡率模型也是迫切課題。 小區域推估面臨的問題大致可歸納為四個方向：「資料品質」、「地區人數」、「資料年數」與「推估年數」，資料品質有賴資料庫與制度的建立，關於後三個問題，本文引進修勻(Smoothing, Graduation)等方法來提高小區域推估及小區域死亡模型的穩定性。人口推估方面結合修勻與區塊拔靴法(Block Bootstrap)，死亡率模型的建構則將修勻加入Lee-Carter與Age-Period-Cohort模型。由於小區域人口數較少，本文透過標準死亡比(Standard Mortality Ratio)及大區域與小區域間的連貫(Coherence)，將大區域的訊息加入小區域，降低因為地區人數較少引起的震盪。 小區域推估通常可用的資料時間較短，未來推估結果的震盪也較大，本文針對需要過去幾年資料，以及未來可推估年數等因素進行研究，希冀結果可提供臺灣各地方政府的推估參考。研究發現，參考大區域訊息有穩定推估的效果，修勻有助於降低推估誤差；另外，在小區域推估中，如有過去十五年資料可獲得較可靠的推估結果，而未來推估年數盡量不超過二十年，若地區人數過少則建議合併其他區域增加資料量後再行推估；先經過修勻而得出的死亡率模型，其效果和較為複雜的連貫模型修正相當。 / The population size plays a very important role in statistical estimation, and it is difficult to derive a reliable estimation for small areas. The estimation is even more difficult if the geographic and social attributes within the small areas vary widely. However, although the population aging and longevity risk are common phenomenon in the world, the problem is not the same for different countries. The aim of this study is to explore the population projection and mortality models for small areas, with the consideration of the small area’s distinguishing characteristic. The difficulties for small area population projection can be attributed into four directions: data quality, population size, number of base years, and projection horizon. The data quality is beyond the discussion of this study and the main focus shall be laid on the other three issues. The smoothing methods and coherent models will be applied to improve the stability and accuracy of small area estimation. In the study, the block bootstrap and the smoothing methods are combined to project the population to the small areas in Taiwan. Besides, the Lee-Cater and the age-period-cohort model are extended by the smoothing and coherent methods. We found that the smoothing methods can reduce the fluctuation of estimation and projection in general, and the improvement is especially noticeable for areas with smaller population sizes. To obtain a reliable population projection for small areas, we suggest using at least fifteen-year of historical data for projection and a projection horizon not more than twenty years. Also, for developing mortality models for small areas, we found that the smoothing methods have similar effects than those methods using more complicated models, such as the coherent models.

GPS 單點定位或稱絕對定位，傳統上使用虛擬距離觀測量，容易受到 電離層延遲影響，導致定位精度較差。因此，本文的目的為構建即時的區 域性電離層模型，以便能夠即時減弱電離層延遲量，提高單頻GPS 單點定 位的精度。 構建電離層模型的方法有很多種，而運用類神經網路為可能方法之一， 但是， 國內較少人探討。本研究嘗詴使用倒傳遞類神經網路(Back-propagation Artificial Neural Network)，構建即時的區域電離層模型，藉由選擇適當的神經訓練函數及隱藏層神經元，利用過去收集的已知參考站的雙頻GPS 資料，計算電離層延遲量，訓練類神經網路，直到精度合乎要求；再以檢核站GPS 資料，檢驗類神經網路預測電離層延遲的功效。 採用的實驗資料為臺南市政府e-GPS 系統所提供六個測站，2008 年1 月3 日到1 月5 日的GPS 資料，計算測站與GPS 衛星連線中假想的電離層 薄殼交點—電離層穿透點(Ionosphere Pierce Point, IPP）之地理位置(緯度φ、經度λ)，及太陽黑子數(sunspot numbers)等當作輸入值，IPP 的垂直電離層延遲當作輸出值，測詴包含單日、兩日以及不同的資料型態(IPP 點、網格點)等情況訓練類神經網路，藉由相對應的驗證資料，檢驗類神經網路的功效，最後將類神經網路的預估成果與全球電離層改正模型、雙頻GPS 資料計算的電離層延遲相比較，並根據改正率與統計特性，評估類神經網 路構建出的區域性電離層模型的成效。 由實驗成果顯示，構建的即時區域性電離層模型的標準差可小於±3TECU，並可改正約80%的電離層延遲誤差，故以類神經網路可有效的構 建出區域性的電離層模型。 / The conventional single point positioning using GPS pseudo rangemeasurements, are vulnerable to ionospheric errors, leading to poor positioningaccuracy. Constructing a real-time ionospheric model is one of the methods that can reduce the ionospheric errors and improve the single point positioning accuracy. Although there are many methods to construct regional ionosphere model,using artificial neural network (ANN) to construct a real-time ionospheric model is less to be mentioned. This study used back-propagation artificial neural network to estimate a regional real-time ionospheric model by selecting the appropriate training functions and the number of hidden layers and its’ nodes. The neural network had to be ‘trained’ by the computed TECs from reference stations’ duel-frequency GPS data until the required accuracy was achieved. The experimental data are collected from 6 e-GPS stations of Tainan city government on January 3 to January 5, 2008. The input values for the ANN includ the geographical location of the ionosphere pierce point (IPP) and solar activity (sunspot number). The output value are those IPPs’ vertical total electron content (VTEC). Different times range and data types (IPPs’ or raster data) for the impact of the ANN are tested. And then compared to Klobuchar model and global ionopheric model, according to the correct rate and the ΔTEC statistic table decide the effectiveness of ANN. According to the test results, the regional ionopheric model constructed by ANN can corrected 80% of the ionospheric errors, the standard deviation of ΔTEC is less than ±3TECU.

中共一直沒有放棄以武力作為解決「臺灣問題」的選項，「統一臺灣」是中共建軍備戰主要目標之一，而國軍自然是共軍的主要假想敵。但是在1996年美國派遣兩支航母戰鬥群干預臺海軍事危機後，使中共體認美軍才是解決「臺灣問題」的最強大對手，開始深入思考如何阻止擁有高科技優勢的美軍介入臺海軍事衝突。防止美軍在中國大陸周邊地區進行作戰行動，是目前中共軍事現代化的主要發展方向，美國官學界將其稱為「反介入與區域拒止」軍事戰略，一時之間已成為研究中共軍事發展者之主要觀察指標。 中共「反介入與區域拒止」軍事戰略的主要著眼，在於建構能防止美國運用軍力涉入中國大陸周邊事務的能力，中共相信即使強大如美軍也不可能擁有全方位的優勢，其「反介入與區域拒止」軍事戰略主要依據地理環境、地緣戰略、美軍作戰特性及弱點等要素，並憑藉共軍數量與質量俱增的現代化武器，希望在西太平洋地區可能的軍事衝突中壓制美軍的作戰行動，或迫使美軍由較遠的基地發起軍事行動，並且阻止美軍後續的兵力增援，這可能使美軍在西太平洋作戰中遭到中共擊敗，或是迫使美國付出其不願意承擔的重大代價，此將導致中共可以達成其軍事和政治目標，同時也阻止美國全部或部分的軍事和政治目標。 中共軍力在「反介入與區域拒止」軍事戰略的帶動下快速成長，使美軍在西太平洋地區面臨重大挑戰和風險，並使美國區域盟邦有遭受侵略或被迫接受強制手段之虞，美軍為因應中共的挑戰，已確立「空海一體戰」的新型作戰概念，並著手發展相關能力。「空海一體戰」係以美軍現有軍力優勢為基礎，再經由西太平洋軍力部署的重組、海空作戰力量的整合、新型武器裝備的研發，並且加強與盟邦的軍事合作，希望建構一個多層次立體作戰體系，俾遏制中共的軍事擴張。在中、美兩強「反介入與區域拒止」和「空海一體戰」軍事戰略的競逐下，臺灣的自處之道和所應扮演的角色，亦為吾人應予深思的課題。 / The People’s Republic of China has never given up the use of military force as an option to solve the “Taiwan issue”, and the “unification with Taiwan” has also been one of the PLA’s objectives in its military buildup, which naturally makes the ROC military as the PLA’s hypothetical enemy. However, after the US sending two of its aircraft carrier battle groups to intervene a military crisis across the Taiwan Strait in 1996, the PRC started to realize that US military is its strongest opponent in solving the Taiwan issue and began to think how to deny the high-tech US military force from stepping into a military confrontation across the Taiwan strait. The prevention of US military operation in surrounding areas of China has been leading the modernization of China’s military, and officials and academia in the US have been calling this phenomenon “anti-access and area-denial” strategy which all of a sudden becomes an observation index when studying the PRC’s military development. The main focus of China’s “anti-access and area-denial” strategy is to develop the capability of preventing the US military from intervening affairs taking place in surrounding areas of China. China believes that no matter how powerful the US military is, it is unable to gain a comprehensive advantage in this region. By the PLA’s increasing modernized weapons, the anti-access and area-denial strategy, based on the geographic environment, geostrategy, and characteristics and weakness of the US military, aims to suppress US military activities in possible military conflicts in the western Pacific region, or to compel the US military to launch its force from bases further away and to stop its reinforcement. The success of this strategy will make the US military be defeated by the PLA or force the US to pay a price that it is unwilling to afford, and then China is able to achieve its military and political objectives and at the same time stops the US, entirely or partially, from achieving its military and political objectives. The anti-access and area-denial strategy has led to a rapid military development in China, which poses a great challenge and risk to the US military in the western Pacific region and makes allies of the US in this region in the fear of being invaded or coerced. In responding to China’s challenges, the US military has developed a new operational concept -- “AirSea Battle” and begins the development relating to this new concept. The “AirSea Battle” concept, building on current US military supremacy and the integration of air-sea combat powers as well as the reorganization of US force in the western Pacific region and the development of new weapons, looks to enhance the military cooperation between the US and its allies to establish a multilevel operation system which is able to contain Chinese military expansion. Amid the competition between China’s “anti-access and area-denial” strategy and US “AirSea Battle” concept, Taiwan’s responses and the role that Taiwan should play is a subject that we must deliberate thoroughly.