由於許多國家死亡率下降快速、壽命延長幅度超乎預期，加上生育率持續低於替代水準，人口老化現象愈發明顯，近年來個人生涯規劃及政府施政，都格外強調退休後經濟生活及老年相關社會資源分配的比重。以臺灣為例，行政院經濟建設委員會 (簡稱經建會) 從1990年代開始，每兩年公布一次未來的人口推估，但過去十年來經建會屢次修正歷年的推估假設，以因應生育率及死亡率變化快速，適時提醒臺灣日益加速的人口老化。正因為人口推估可能受到人口數、社會變遷、資料品質等因素，影響統計分析的可靠性，常用於國家層級的推估方法，往往無法直接套用至縣市及其以下的層級 (即小區域)，使得小區域人口推估較為棘手，需要更加謹慎面對。 本文延續王信忠等人 (2012) 的研究，以小區域人口推估為目標，著重在生育率推估研究，結合隨機模型與修勻方法，尋找適合臺灣縣市層級的小區域人口推估方法。本文考量的隨機模型計有區塊拔靴法 (Block Bootstrap) 和 Lee-Carter 模型 (Lee and Carter 1992)，以預測未來的生育率和死亡率，並套用年輪組成推計法 (或稱為人口要素合成法；Cohort Component Method) 及修勻 (Graduation) 方法，探討這些方法與人口規模之間的關係，評估用於小區域人口推估之可行性。 本文首先以電腦模擬，探討生育率的推估，討論是否可直接推估總生育率，類似增加樣本數的概念，取代各縣市的年齡別生育率，以取得較為穩定的推估。根據模擬結果，發現人口規模對出生數的推估沒有明顯的關係，只要使用總生育率、再結合區塊拔靴法，就足以提供穩定的推估結果。實證研究方面，以臺灣縣市層級的人口及其年齡結構 (例如：0-14歲、15-64歲、65歲以上) 為驗證對象，發現分析結果也與電腦模擬相似，發現以區塊拔靴法推估臺灣各縣市的總生育率、年齡組死亡率，其推估精確度不因人口規模而打折扣，顯示以區塊拔靴法推估總生育率、年齡組死亡率，可用於推估臺灣小地區的未來人口。 / Due to the rapid mortality reduction, prolonging human longevity is a common phenomenon and longevity risk receives more attention in 21st century. Many developed countries encounter many problems brought up by prolonging life, such as poor community infrastructure and insufficient financial pension funds for the elderly. Population Projection thus becomes essential in government planning in dealing with the population aging. However, rapid changes in mortality and fertility make the projection very tricky. It would be even more difficult to project areas with fewer populations (i.e., small areas) since it takes extra efforts to deal with the larger fluctuations in small population. The objective of the study is to construct a standard operating procedure (SOP) for small population projection. Unlike the previous study, e.g., Wang et al. (2012), we will take both the fertility and mortality into account (but set migration aside for simplicity). First, for the fertility projection, we evaluate if total fertility rates (TFR) are more appropriate than the age-specific fertility rates for small population. Also, we compare two fertility projection methods: Lee-Carter model and block bootstrap, and check which shows better results. Based on the computer simulation, we found that TFR performs better and the block bootstrap method is more sensitive to rapid fertility changes. As for mortality rate projection, we also recommend the standard operating procedure by Wang et al. (2012). However, the smoothing methods have limited impacts on mortality projection and can be ignored. In addition to simulation, we also apply the SOP for projecting the small population to Taiwan counties and it achieves satisfactory results. However, due to the availability of data, our method can only be used for short-term projection (at most 30 years) and these results might not apply to long-term projection. Also, similar to the previous work, the fertility rates have the larger impact on small population projection, although we think that the migration has large impact as well. In this study, only the stochastic projection is considered and we shall consider including expert opinions as the future study.

區域技術創新能力是展現區域將知識轉化為經濟的能力，是區域競爭力的重要內容。由於區域創新能力是造成中國各區域經濟發展差距的主要原因之一。本研究採用中國之上市公司為研究對象，探討公司創新活動的揭露與中國各省（自治區、直轄市）創新能力對分析師預測行為及分析師預測跟隨人數之影響。由三個面向檢視區域創新能力：研究與試驗發展全時人員當量增長率(REGTH)、政府研發投入占GDP比例(GIGDP)、每百萬人平均發明專利授權數(AVPAT)。研究結果發現創新活動揭露越多之公司，分析師之預測誤差程度越低、分析師之離散度越高且能吸引越多分析師對公司做預測。區域創新能力指標REGTH越高地區，分析師預測跟隨人數越少；區域創新能力指標GIGDP越高地區，分析師之預測誤差程度越低、分析師之離散度越低、分析師預測跟隨人數越少；區域創新能力指標AVPAT越高地區，分析師之預測誤差程度越低、分析師之離散度越低、分析師預測跟隨人數越多。 / Regional innovation capability is an important competitive ability to improve the economic development in China. Using a sample of Chinese listed companies, this study investigates the extent to which innovation disclosure at the company level and regional innovation capabilities affect analysts’ forecast characteristics in terms of forecast error, and forecast dispersion, and the number of analysts’ following. The indicators of regional innovation capabilities are the growth rate of R&D full-time equivalent personnel (REGTH), regional government's investment in R&D per GDP (GIGDP), and average of innovation patent authorized per millions of people in one region (AVPAT). The results indicate that firms with more innovation disclosures improve analysts’ forecast error, and regions with higher GIGDP and AVPAT also improve analysts’ forecast error. For firms with more innovation disclosures increase analysts’ forecast dispersion, and for regions with lower GIGDP and AVPAT increase analysts’ forecast dispersion. I also find firms with more innovation disclosures attract more analysts’ following, and regions with higher REGTH and GIGDP have less analysts’ following, while regions with higher AVPAT attract more analysts’ following.

本篇探討在2010年4月16日滬深300股指期貨正式上市到2012年9月18日止的連續近月每日收盤日資料，進行區域內金融期貨市場連動關係的研究，試圖發現兩岸三地之股價指數期貨市場在亞太地區的金融主導地位，以作為國內外投資者在區域內的投資決策參考。 實證結果顯示，從共整合及向量誤差修正模型檢定發現，兩岸三地股指期貨具有長期均衡及短期的互動關係，因此可以視此三地為單一區域市場。在Granger因果檢定上，台股指數期貨雖無法預測恆生指數期貨，但仍明顯領先滬深300股指期貨且程度大於恆生指數期貨，或可推測兩岸因ECFA的簽訂使實體經濟的關聯性更為緊密，至於恆生指數期貨大多以金融、地產股為其主要成分，與大陸主要以實體經濟為主的金融市場，其Granger預測滬深300股指期貨的能力因此相對較弱。另由衝擊反應檢定得知恆生指數期貨為一獨立的市場，不受台灣及大陸指數期貨市場衝擊的影響；滬深300指數期貨因大陸金融市場逐漸開放，也會受到香港及台灣金融期貨市場之衝擊而產生影響；至於台股指數期貨則在兩岸三地，最易受到其他市場影響。最後由預測變異數分解檢定發現，台股指數期貨及滬深300股指期貨的波動皆易受到恆生股價指數期貨變異的影響，而恆生指數期貨在兩岸三地間之解釋能力最強，於兩岸三地間具金融主導地位。至於台股指數期貨對大陸金融期貨的影響也有突出的表現，因此若政府有心推展亞太金融中心之營運，勢必得加強區域間整合的力度，提出有利吸引外資之最政策，以增加台灣股市於國際間之競爭力。 / This study conducts analysis of regional linkage between financial futures market by examining consecutive daily closing information from April 16, 2010 (the official list date of CSI 300 index futures) to September 18, 2012. This study tries to find the financial dominance of these index futures market in the Asia Pacific region and hopefully it may be used as an investment decision reference for domestic and foreign investors. The empirical results show that from the total integration and vector error correction model tests and three places all indicate long-run equilibrium stock index futures and short-term interaction. Therefore, these three places can be viewed as a single regional market. In the Granger causality test on the TAIEX futures and Hang Seng Index futures, in spite of TAIEX futures can’t predict Hang Seng Index futures, it is significantly ahead of the CSI 300 index futures. TAIEX futures on the CSI 300 index futures even more impact than the Hang Seng Index Futures. It can explain that the ECFA has been signed and results show closely-related economy. Since the Hang Seng Index futures are mainly from financial and real estate stocks while the mainland-based financial market is mainly from the real economy, Granger predicts ability of CSI 300 index futures is relatively weak. Another test on the impulse response shows that (1) Hang Seng Index Futures is an independent market and is not affected by shocks from Taiwan and the mainland index futures markets, (2) CSI 300 index futures is affected by shocks from Hong Kong and Taiwan because of the gradually open financial markets, and (3) TAIEX futures can be seen as a potential Taiwanese dish economy because it is most vulnerable to other market influences among the three places. To sum up, the forecast variance decomposition tests show that TAIEX futures and the CSI 300 stock index futures are vulnerable to fluctuations in the Hang Seng index futures. In order words, the Hang Seng Index futures have the strongest explanatory power among the three places and shows financial dominance. The TAIEX futures also show its significant impact on the mainland China financial futures index. If the Government decides to promote the operation of the Asia-Pacific financial center and to increase competitiveness of Taiwan stock market, it will inevitably have to strengthen inter-regional integration efforts and make the most favorable policies to attract foreign investment.

國家政策之制定須配合未來人口總數及其結構等特性，藉以達到提高國民福 祉的願景，因此各國均定期公佈人口推估(Population Projection)的結果，目前臺 灣官方人口推估為每兩年公布一次。人口推估主要考量三個要素：出生、死亡、 遷移，以國家層級而言，通常遷徙對未來人口的影響遠小於出生與死亡，所以過 去行政院經濟建設委員會的官方全國人口推估一般專注於出生與死亡。然而，各 國研究發現遷徙是小區域人口推估為最重要的因素，人口數愈少、影響程度有愈 大的傾向，但文獻中較缺乏臺灣內部遷移的研究。如能掌握臺灣小區域人口遷徙 的變遷，將能使政策因地制宜，有助地方政府提高推行政策的有效性，也是本研 究之目標。 由於缺乏完整的縣市、鄉鎮市區層級的詳細遷移資料，本研究以人口平衡公 式反推淨遷移人數，找出各地區的遷移特性後，代入人口變動要素合成法(Cohort Component Method)，搭配屬於機率推估的區塊拔靴法(Block Bootstrap)，推估小 區域的未來人口。關於出生及死亡的推估，過去研究發現使用區塊拔靴法用於小 區域的生育率（曹育欣，2012）及死亡率（金碩，2011），皆有不錯的推估結果。 本研究以臺北市為範例，討論區塊拔靴法在小區域遷徙人口數、年齡別遷徙人口 的推估效果，及是否適合運用在其他不同縣市。 / The population projection is used to provide information for the policy planning of governments. In Taiwan, the Council for Economic Planning and Development is in charge of the official population projection and it release projection results every two years. Basically, three factors are considered in population projection: birth, death, and migration. Since the migration has little impacts in country-level projection, many countries (including Taiwan) assume the future migration is zero or close to zero, and the focus of projection is usually on the birth and death. However, for the projection of small area (such as county- or township-level), past studies found that the effect of migration cannot be ignored. But, partly due to the limitation of migration data, there are not many studies explore the migration patterns of counties or townships in Taiwan. In this study, we use the population records (births and deaths) and the population equation to derive the county-level records of internal migration in Taiwan. We use these data to explore the migration patterns of all counties in Taiwan, and then applying block bootstrap method to modify the county-level population projection. Note that, the block bootstrap is shown to be reliable in forecasting fertility (Tsao, 2012) and mortality (Jin, 2011) for small areas. In this study, we also use the Taipei City to demonstrate the population projection which includes the internal migration, and the result is promising.

二次大戰之後，東亞國家經濟快速發展，促使一些具策略位置的城市搖身一變成為重要的世界/全球城市，其中新加坡、香港、上海、台北及首爾等五個由南至北位居東亞重要位置的世界/全球城市，更進而積極鞏固或致力發展「區域金融中心」角色，由於這五個城市所擁有的優劣勢及利基未盡相同，以至於未來的發展態勢並不明朗。另方面「區域金融中心」的研究範疇是跨越了「城市和區域經濟」的空間領域與「貨幣和金融經濟」的金融領域，因此為了解新加坡、香港、上海、台北及首爾等五城市發展「區域金融中心」各自在空間與金融領域分別擁有的優劣勢及利基，本論文除蒐集空間及金融領域在資金流動、金融市場發展情形、金融業生產力及法制環境等方面的次級資料予以評比外，並透過專家學者深度訪談所提具對五城市優劣勢及利基的評比意見，進行內容分析。 研究發現空間及金融領域都強調「政府因素」以及政治穩定的重要，也一致認為「金融中心」必須要有「經濟力量」的支撐；不過空間領域認為世界/全球城市可由「政府力量」促成，而金融領域則認為「金融中心」係由「市場力量」所形塑，但是為使「市場力量」發揮運作機制，政府扮演最重要的角色。此外，受訪專家學者認為「金融中心」的評比指標，雖然有自由化、國際化程度、人才素質、基礎建設及金融市場效率等，但「政府因素」最具影響。最後，受訪專家學者一致認同香港發展「區域金融中心」最具優勢，新加坡次之；大體上同意台北第三，上海第三或第四，首爾居末。其中，最具爭議的台北及上海，都是由於「政府因素」而導致未來發展不明。此外，研究也發現五城市在發展「區域金融中心」的過程，由於各具不同優勢與利基，遂呈現不同的功能與特徵。 / Since the economy in East Asia has been flourishing remarkably after the World War II, few major cities in this region have undoubtedly become international and grow rapidly in the last few decades. Singapore, Hong Kong, Taipei, Shanghai and Seoul are the five leading cities in East Asia, located from south to north, in respect of their financial importance. Moreover, people in these cities eager to improve them to take the place as the leading regional financial center. It is but hard to estimate and compare each of them with the other, for each has both its advantages and disadvantages. In fact, the study on the concrete shape and future of the expected regional financial center must take into account not only the spatial field survey of city and local economy, but also that of the financial field concerning monetary and finance economy. That is, to bridge over the research of spatial and financial field as well as to understand the relative competitiveness among these cities to develop regional financial centers. In this regard, the study gathers information about the foreign direct investment of capital flows, the scope of financial market, the productivity of financial service industry as well as legal and regulatory environments in these cities on the one hand, and interview many experts to have their opinions on the issue on the other hand. The result of the study indicates that both the spatial and financial field survey emphasize the importance of governmental support and political stability, and prove consistency in the opinion about the supportive role of economic power in each financial center. However, the spatial field survey considers government-drive as the most relevant element of developing a global city as the regional financial centre, while that from financial field inclines to support market-drive as the key element and persuade government to keep the free-market policy. According to the analysis of expert interviews, there are many determinant elements for developing a regional financial centre, including financial liberalization, internationalization and human capital, fundamental infrastructure, efficiency of financial market and so on. They also indicate that local government plays a critical but most influential role. Meanwhile, all experts regard Hong Kong as the top one among these local financial centers, Singapore as the second, and most experts consider Taipei as the third and Shanghai as the third or the forth, while they all take Seoul as the last. Expert opinions about Taipei and Shanghai are ambiguous, so far as local governments in the two cities play the key role but fail to provide certainty in the future. Finally, it is without doubt that the five cities have their advantages and disadvantages to fulfill different functions.

論文摘要 本文主要之研究在於檢驗東協區域論壇是否具有影響亞太區域安全之效能。首先藉由國際關係理論對於「安全」的闡述，筆者運用新現實主義與新自由制度主義的安全觀與對國際建制的看法，來評析東協區域論壇（ASEAN Retional Forum, ARF）對亞太安全的影響力。隨著國際關係理論的檢視過程中得知，新現實主義與新自由制度主義皆認為東協區域論壇在穩定亞太區域和平與穩定的效用不大。 其次，透過Andreas Hasenclever、Peter Mayer與Volker Rittberger在 Theories of International Regimes文章中所提出關於國際建制（International Regimes）評定的指標，其以新自由制度主義的觀點就（1）建制的「效率」（Effectiveness）指標－建制達成目標與貫徹意志的能力、對成員的影響力，以及決議的拘束力等方面；兼以（2）建制的「彈性－堅實」（Resilience / Robustness）指標－東協區域論壇對於現實事件、衝突的解決能力與成效，藉由國際建制的角度來分析東協區域論壇在建制上的完備與否，來評價東協區域論壇是否合乎所謂區域性「安全」機制的標準。 經由國際建制指標的檢視結果得知，不論在「效率」指標或「彈性－堅實」指標，皆驗證出東協區域論壇是個不健全的國際建制，並非所謂的區域性安全機制，對亞太區域安全的影響力也有限。 再者，經由對於亞太地區的主要衝突點－朝鮮半島核武問題、台海危機以及南海主權爭議等事件的討論，檢視東協區域論壇對於事件的處理、事件所做出的決議以及針對事件所發表的聲明，來評析論壇是否具有解決亞太衝突事件之功能。研究發現，東協區域論壇僅能對於衝突事件做出宣示性質的聲明，不具拘束力的決議，無法要求成員國自制，也使得論壇無法做出有效的解決，更失去了處理亞太區域安全事務的能力。 最終，歸結出東協區域論壇的缺失，以及無法有效發揮其安全建制的原因，筆者認為東協區域論壇最主要的缺失在於「制度化程度太低」以及「決議拘束力不足」，因而導致論壇缺乏安全建制的功能、議題無法被普遍討論、對衝突事件缺乏解決能力以及信心建立措施無法順利推展等問題。透過上述之討論，找出提升東協區域論壇解決事件效能之辦法，俾使其發揮安全建制之功能。 關鍵字詞：東協區域論壇、新現實主義、新自由制度主義、國際建制

從歷史淵源而言，「東突厥斯坦」乙詞緣於19世紀沙俄試圖從地理名稱、宗教信仰與民族識別等深層的滲透方式，藉由「泛突厥主義」與「泛伊斯蘭主義」拉攏新疆信仰伊斯蘭教的少數民族，以東突的概念，將之納入已遭其併吞的中亞突厥斯坦地區，復以此話語的界定權，取得全世界對於俄國版地理分隔線的認同。復由於國共內戰時期，蘇聯鼓動成立「東突厥斯坦共和國」，毛澤東亦以「三區革命」稱許之，以期掀起遍地革命火種，給予現代新疆少數民族留下以語言及信仰為基礎的革命建國歷史記憶。 從中國的內政視野，政治穩定與否是東突問題載浮載沉的關鍵，清末與民國時期的內憂外患時期自不待言。中共建政之初，對少數民族採取相對溫和的社會主義改造政策，漸次形成了認同的政治文化，然而卻隨著左右傾路線發展遭到破壞；雖然1989年中共實施經濟改革後，新疆少數民族亦從中獲利，但幅度始終跟不上漢族的移入者，以致無論是民族關係、經濟關係乃至政治關係上均惡化為破碎的政治文化，即漢族始終自認是政策利多的給予者，而少數民族則自視為被剝奪者與受害者。1991年蘇聯解體之後，中亞五國獨立對新疆少數民族造成磁吸效應，成為東突議題再起的火種。然自江澤民上台之後，對於東突治理的基調仍採取軍事過硬的鎮壓手段，並未從根本解決少數民族的問題，以致民族融合更加困難，暴力衝突的數量與規模屢創新高。 從區域安全角度，新疆與其隔鄰的中亞自古以來就是伊斯蘭、儒家、斯拉夫與佛教等四大文明邊緣的交會破碎區，少數遊牧民族逐水草而居的生活型態更打破國家之間的界線，伊斯蘭宗教信仰與突厥方言的識別取代了國家認同。以致本地區所謂的認同兼具有脆弱性與包容性。因此，自古以來外在強權對於本地區並不刻意建立有形的實質統治，而是透過優勢文化或軟實力滲透，讓區域內的少數民族對強勢帝權國家產生有形與無形依賴，前者是物質與經濟力量，後者是文化與心理作用。兩相交替，造成被影響國家邊境少數民族出現認同危機。過去是沙俄與前蘇聯藉此覬覦中國的領土，現今則有美國、歐洲乃至日本加入競逐天然資源蘊藏豐富的中亞地區，以各種優厚的條件，取得天然資源開發特許權。 從治理成果評估，新疆少數民族、東突議題與中共政權之間不僅在中國大陸境內出現認同分離現象，並隨著全球資訊化的發展，使得國內問題惡化為國際議題。衝突雙方藉由印象管理、符號黏合等方式，在各自的舞台上展示政治訴求。雖然在以主權國家為主體的國際體系中，東突組織屈居下風；然而受到網際網穿透性、民族宗教關懷，或者，如中共政權所認定之「國際陰謀」作用，使得部分東突組織與成員雖然不足以影響大局，但仍透過相關議題在特定國際社會場域形成動靜觀瞻之國際影響。 / From the historical aspect, Russia mixed the concepts of geography, religion and nation to establish the title of “East-Turkistan” in 19th century, and then attracted the minorities of Xinjiang into her Center Asia provinces by the ideas of Pan-Islam and Pan-Turkism. By the power of discourse, Russia’s new map about the East-Turkistan got the recognitions in the world. In 1944, the eve of Chinese Civil War, Soviet Union supported the Xinjiang minorities to establish the “Republic of East-Turkistan”. Mao Zedong praised it “Three Regions Revolution” to combine the spirit of revolution in the China Mainland. All these give the modern Xinjiang minorities fresh founding memory till now. Tracing the development of Chinese internal affairs, there are significant relations between the issues of East-Turkistan and domestic political stable. It goes without saying the worse situation during the late Qing dynasty and the early Republic of China (ROC). In the beginning of People’s Republic of China (PRC) regime, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) taking the warm socialism reform policies, got the Xinjiang minorities’ identity and formed the unify political culture, which been broken by following political conflicts in a short time. In 1978, the CCP promoted the economic reform policies, the Xinjiang minorities got some profit from it, but the earnings could not compare with the Han immigrations. All of those led the ethnic, economic and political relations becoming a cracked political culture. In other words, the Han thought themselves as givers of the profit, but the Xinjiang minorities felt been exploited. The independent tide of the five former Central Asia Republics after dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 produced the magnetic effect to Xinjiang minorities and stimulated the revival of East-Turkistan issues. Since Jiang Zemin, the Secretary General of CCP still compressed the problem by military means in 1992; the ethnic integration in Xinjiang becomes more difficult. The number of violence accidents hits higher and higher level. According to the regional security, Xinjiang and Central Asia locate at the crossroad of four civilizations, including Islam, Confucius, Slavs and Buddhism. In addition to the living style of nomads breaking the boundaries in this area, the Islamic belief and Turkic dialect take place the national identity, which are full of the vulnerability and tolerance. The outside superpowers penetrate this area by excellent culture and soft power instead of creating functional institutions, causing the crisis of identity or loyalty. For example, the Russia and Soviet Union invaded the vast land of Xinjiang in the 19th; the US, Europe and Japan rapidly join the great competition of natural resources in Central Asia nowadays. Evaluation the policy of CCP toward East-Turkistan is not easy. This is not only the identity crisis in China, but also transfers into the international field. Both sides take the strategies of impression management and exegetical bonding to show their political appeals. Although the realistic international system is composed by the sovereignty states obstructed the East Turkistan organizations, which still take advantages of internet, ethnic and religious methods to attract some specific concerns. This study found that: First, the proper noun “East Turkistan” does not created by the Uyghur themselves, but by the Russia in the 19th. In addition, The Republic of East Turkistan (1944-1949) organized by many minorities of Xinjiang, not by Uyghur only. Therefore, the Uyghur can’t be referred to the East Turkistan totally. Second, the definition of East Turkistan problem is rebellion or terrorist attack is decided by the Chinese central government. The Republic of China thought it as the Soviet Union agitated the local minorities’ armed rebellion. The CCP took the same viewpoints before 1990s. While, the CCP highlights the terrorism about the East Turkistan’s issues that got few recognition from the US and UN after September 11 attack. Although the change let the CCP wins tiny interest in a short period, the foreign countries use the excuse of human rights and against radical anti-terrorism strategy to intervene the CCP domestic issues. Third, the exile Uyghur does not get the general agreement about resistance movement and the core attitude toward the CCP. Those are the obstacles for the exile Uyghur to form the unify action and power. Forth, the CCP always declares to the world that the Xinjiang Uyghur relates closely with the East Turkistan terrorism organizations. That enrages some Uyghur to take fierce actions against the CCP. Now the most important duty for the CCP is to find a balance between the removals of terrorism label from the Uyghur and increasing the budget for the anti-terrorism mission. Fifth, the appeals of Rebiya Kadeer and the overseas Uyghur groups which she leads do not want to establish an independent state. Instead, she struggles to ask a higher autonomy. The idea is familiar to the Soviet republics, but refused by the CCP.

素有經貿聯合國之稱的世界貿易組織自2001年起推動的杜哈回合談判，歷經13年的談判僅於2013年12月達成小部分的早期收穫，如此緩速的進展，使得各國紛紛轉向較小規模，較快完成的區域貿易協定，亞太地區國家也積極的參與其中。亞太經濟合作（APEC）為亞太地區唯一的經貿相關跨政府論壇，亦關注到此發展趨勢。自2004年起經由企業家代表組成的企業諮詢委員會提案成立亞太自由貿易區，至2007年正式進入APEC的議程，但推動的過程並不順遂，美國遂轉向發展太平洋夥伴協定，東協國家專注於區域全面經濟夥伴協定，拉美會員體形成太平洋聯盟，APEC則發展出區域經濟整合議程並同時推動著亞太自由貿易區，後者雖然推動力道薄弱，但卻未消失在議程中。直至2010年及2014年在日本及中國大陸的主辦優勢下，將亞太自由貿易區定調為全面高品質的自由貿易協定，為APEC達成茂物目標的主要工具之一，而達成的途徑則是以現有的區域間發展的經濟整合機制為主，另外區域經濟整合議程採取部門別議題別的方式進行，也是朝著茂物目標邁進。 本研究從APEC的本質、原則及精神逐步探討至亞太自由貿易區及區域經濟整合議程兩個途徑的可能走向及發展限制等。對於採取條約式具約束性的亞太自由貿易區而言，獨自進行談判的機率極低，最可能透過太平洋夥伴協定擴大而成。而區域經濟整合議程則是便捷化的成果大於自由化，透過降低供應鏈障礙或通關經商便捷措施，亦可節省交易成本，應加以廣化及深化。我國在兩個途徑的參與上，在亞太自由貿易區的成型過程應完全參與，以避免我國被排除在外的可能性，至於區域經濟整合議程，則應加強在會務運作及貿易暨投資委員會及所屬次級論壇的力道，方能妥善運用我國少數擁有正式會籍的國際經貿組織為我國融入區域經濟創造有利的條件。 / The Doha Development Agenda (DDA) gained little progress by the WTO since 2001. Many countries including those in the Asia Pacific area changed their policy and decided to join themselves in free trade agreements (agreements which were smaller scale and faster to complete) in comparison with the DDA. Upon noticing this trend by APEC, the establishment of Free Trade Area of Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) was proposed in 2004 by the APEC Business Advisory Council. It became one of the topics in the APEC agenda in 2007. However, the progress of FTAAP was not as expected, members in APEC had their own focus thereafter. The United States focused on the Tras-Pacific Partership (TPP), ASEAN members developed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and members in Latin America targeted on Pacific Alliance. Within APEC, the discussion of FTAAP till now has reached a consensus on the definition as a high quality and comprehensive trade agreement, that builds on the sub-regional trade agreement. Besides, there is another topic as regional economic integration agenda (REI agenda) which is subject oriented and non-binding to APEC members. Both FTAAP and REI agenda are ways for the realization of Bogor Goals. This study starts from the APEC content, principles and visions to the possible directions and restrictions of the development of the FTAAP and REI agenda. With regard to FTAAP, it's rule-based and it has little possibility to launch negotiations in a short term, and it could be accomplished by the expansion of TPP. In regard to the REI agenda, the accomplishment of facilitation is more important than liberalization. It should deepen and broaden the trade facilitation measures, such as supply-chain connectivity, customs procedures, transparency...etc. Finally the suggestions for Taiwan's participation in those two areas are as follows. To participate fully in the activity and the realization of FTAAP, this will avoid the possibility to be excluded from the FTAAP. Taiwan should invest a bigger effort in the Committee of Trade and Investment, its sub-flora and the meeting operation. We should make good use of APEC considering is one of the few international organizations Taiwan possesses full membership of to create a positive environment that will enable us in the economic integration.

臺灣各縣市人口結構差異明顯，各縣市的人口出生、老化程度都不盡相同，而且在醫療分配及社會資源的使用也有很大的差異，因此各縣市應因應各地特性發展不同的小區域人口推估方法。由於樣本數與變異數成反比，人數較少者的死亡率（像是高齡人口）通常震盪較大，藉由適當的修勻(Graduation)調整，通常可降低年齡層間的死亡率震盪。然而，當縣市層級的人數太少時，只依賴修勻往往不足，多半會再參考人口較多的大母體之死亡率。例如：傳統的的貝氏修勻，使用Lee-Carter之類的參數死亡模型(Lee and Carter, 1992)，或是透過小區域及大母體的死亡率比值（王信忠, 2012）。然而過去研究較少全面性的比較這些方法，尤其是用於人數較少（如：十萬人）的地區。 本文以探討小區域生命表及死亡率推估為目標，著眼於人數不多於五萬人，尋求較為適合臺灣及類似國家的死亡率編算方法。由於修勻或貝氏等方法可視為增加樣本數，本文將擴大樣本分為四種方式：「同地同時」、「同地異時」、「異地同時」、「異地異時」，亦即將死亡資料的整併分成是否限定於小區域，以及是否可擴及其他年度。本文藉由電腦模擬測試，提供在各種限制之下，最合適小區域生命表建構的準則。其中，本文假設大、小區域的死亡率間存有三種情境的關係：定值、遞增、V字型，藉由調整大小區域死亡率比值間的幅度，探討大母體及小區域間的差異對實務使用的影響。研究發現，Partial SMR方法是一個值得參考的方法，當大小區域死亡率類型接近時的效果不錯，甚至可用於人數小於一萬人，但若死亡率類型差異過大，修勻方法會有限制，使用時需格外謹慎。 / The population structure, life expectancy (and age-specific mortality rates), and the speed of population aging vary a lot in different county of Taiwan. Each county has its own policy planning according to the needs. However, the county level population is usually not enough to provide stable estimates, such as of the life expectancies and mortality rates at the county level. Thus, certain graduation methods are applied to stabilize these estimates. However, only a few studies focus on comparing different types of graduation methods, including traditional graduation methods, Bayesian methods, and parametric mortality models. In this study, we separate the graduation methods into four types, according to if using only the small area data and if one year or multiple years of data are used, and explore which methods are appropriate to the areas with population fewer than 100,000. We use computer simulation to evaluate the graduation methods. We found that the Standard Mortality Ratio is promising when the mortality profiles of small and large populations are similar, and it is a feasible solution even for the areas with population fewer than 10,000. However, if the mortality profiles differ significantly, all graduation methods need to be applied with care.

世界各國在經過亞洲金融危機、次貸風暴、歐債危機…等事件後，經濟遭受重創，各國為求經濟成長，區域經濟整合(Regional Economic Integration,REI)逐漸盛行成為趨勢，透過自由貿易協定（Free Trade Agreement, FTA）盼能吸引外資熱錢長期投資以增進成長動能，於是藉由規劃自由經濟區（Free Economic Zone,FEZ）做為貿易競爭的工具，以提昇國家競爭力。 我國因特殊的政治因素及獨特的地理環境因素，導致加入國際組織的困難及必須依靠對外貿易以獲得資源。自由經濟示範區（Taiwan Free Economic Pilot Zones, TFEPZ）的推動代表著政府想引進外資邁向國際化的決心，但在面對國際政治困境、經濟邊緣化、政府朝野對立的情況下，政策及法規的鬆綁與否成為立法院朝野互相攻防的要點。 本研究藉由在貿易上與我國在國際間既合作又競爭且具有密切關係的中國大陸、韓國、日本等三國，藉由研究其自由貿易區政策之內容及推動現況，與我國政策進行比較分析，期能發現不足之處，進而參考借鏡提出相關建議，期許其未來發展得以更臻完善。 / The world's economy has been plagued by a series of financial disasters in recent years, including the Asian financial crisis, subprime mortgage crisis, and the European debt crisis. To revive economy, countries around the world have been seeking deeper cooperation through regional economic integration (REI). Governments have signed free trade agreements (FTA) to draw long-term foreign investments in an attempt to jumpstart growth. They have established free economic zones (FEZ) to boost international trades and improve national competitiveness. However, due to political and geological environment, Taiwan faces a great challenge when trying to join international organizations. Besides, the country has to rely on international trades to acquire necessary resources for growth. The launch of Taiwan Free Economic Pilot Zones (TFEPZ) demonstrates the government's determination to attract foreign investments and play a more important role in the global economy. Yet, given the international political hurdles, risks of economic marginalization, and constant gridlock between the ruling party and the opposition parties in Taiwan, it will be a great challenge for the Legislative Yuan to relax related regulations after a series of fierce debates. This research investigates policies and implementation results of FTZs in South Korea, Japan, and Mainland China—one of Taiwan's close trade partner and competitor. By analyzing and comparing FTZ policies in Taiwan, Mainland China, South Korea, and Japan, this research aims to find some aspects of improvement and provide constructive suggestions for the better development of Taiwan Free Economic Pilot Zones.