作為行銷的主要推廣工具之一，優惠券可同時使商家和消費者獲益，可謂是一個雙贏的行銷手法。然而在實務上，優惠券的總體發放數量巨大，但整體兌換率卻極低，如何提昇優惠券的兌換率成為企業的重要課題。為了吸引消費者，市面上林林總總的優惠券層出不窮，例如「好友分享券」與「買一送一券」；使用效期的表述亦有多種方式，例如「僅限1月1日可使用」與「1月1日任何時間可使用」。本文由此思考，優惠券上這些看似可隨意混用的文字訊息，也許在不知不覺中影響著消費者的思維模式，並對消費者的優惠券評價、兌換意願及兌換行爲產生作用。 本文結合解釋水平理論與框架效應理論，意圖釐清看似相同的優惠券文字訊息對消費者思維模式解釋水平的影響（實驗一），接著探討思維模式解釋水平與效期框架之適配對優惠券吸引力與兌換意願（實驗二子實驗a、b）及兌換行為（實驗三）的影響，並試圖以處理流暢性解釋此影響過程的心理機制（實驗二子實驗a、b）。 研究主要有兩點發現：（一）「好友分享券」與「買一送一券」文字訊息在影響消費者思維模式解釋水平上具有顯著差異，「好友分享券」文字訊息影響消費者處於高水平解釋思維模式；「買一送一券」文字訊息影響消費者處於低水平解釋思維模式。（二）「好友分享券」（高水平解釋）與「僅限」（限制性效期框架）、「買一送一券」（低水平解釋）與「任何時間」（開闊性效期框架）分別存在適配效果，比不適配的思維模式解釋水平與效期框架更能提升優惠券吸引力及增加消費者兌換意願。最後，本研究探討研究發現的意涵，並對未來研究方向提出建議。 / As one of the major promotional tools for marketing, coupons can benefit both consumers and retailers. Therefore, coupon marketing is considered to be a so-called win-win marketing approach. However, in practice, despite the massive number of coupons distributed, overall redemption rates remain extremely low. The question of how to raise redemption rates has become an important issue for corporations. In order to attract consumers, various coupons keep emerging in the market, such as “share with friends” coupons and “buy one, get one free” coupons. Moreover, the same redemption window can be expressed in different ways, for example, “the coupon can be used only on January 1” and “the coupon can be used anytime on January 1”. This research is interested in whether the seemingly interchangeable coupon messages exert an influence without people's realizing it on consumers’ mind-sets, coupon attractiveness, redemption intention and behavior. By combining Construal Level Theory with Framing Effect, this research attempts to explore the impact of the seemingly equivalent coupon messages on the construal level of consumers’ mind-sets (Study 1), and examine the effect of the congruency between the construal level of mind-sets and redemption window frames on coupon attractiveness, redemption intention (Study 2a & 2b) and behavior (Study 3). In addition, this research tries to draw on processing fluency to explain the mechanism underlying the effect (Study 2a & 2b). The main findings are as follows. First, “share with friends” and “buy one, get one free” influence consumers to construe their mind-sets at a high and low level, respectively. Second, the congruency between “share with friends” coupon (high-level construal) and the restrictive frame “only”, “buy one, get one free” coupon (low-level construal) and the expansive frame “anytime”, enhances coupon attractiveness and consumers’ intention to redeem. The research concludes with the implications of the findings and suggestions for future research.

正交主效應計畫(Orthogonal main-effect plans)因可無相關地估計主效應，故常被應用於一般工業上作為篩選因子之用。然而，實驗通常費時耗財。因此，如何設計一個較經濟且有效的計劃是很重要的。回顧過去相關的研究，Jacroux (1992)提供了最小正交主效應計劃的充份條件及正交主效應計畫之最少實驗次數表(Jacroux 1992)，張純明(1998)針對此表提出修正與補充。在此，我們再次的補足此表。 正交主效應計畫中，如有重複實驗點，則純誤差可被估計，且據此檢定模型之適合度。Jacroux (1993)及張純明(1998)皆曾提出具最多部份重複之正交主效應計畫(Partially replicated orthogonal main-effect plans)。在此，我們討論所有三因子部份重複正交主效應計畫中，可能重複之最大次數，且具體提出建構此最大部份重複之最小正交主效應計畫之方法。 / Orthogonal main-effect plans (OMEP's), being able to estimate the main effects without correlation, are often employed in industrial situations for screening purpose. But experiments are expensive and time consuming. When an economical and efficient design is desired, a minimal orthogonal main-effect plans is a good choice. Jacroux (1992) derived a sufficient condition for OEMP's to have minimal number of runs and provided a table of minimal OMEP run numbers. Chang (1998) corrected and supplemented the table. In this paper, we try to improve the table to its perfection. A minimal OMEP with replicated runs is appreciated even more since then the pure error can be estimated and the goodness-of-fit of the model can be tested. Jacroux (1993) and Chang (1998) gave some partially replicated orthogonal main-effect plans (PROMEP's) with maximal number of replicated points. Here, we discuss minimal PROMEP's with 3 factors in detail. Methods of constructing minimal PROMEP's with replicated runs are provided, and the number of replicated runs are maximal for most cases.

許多社會科學及醫學上的長期追蹤研究上，常會根據研究之需要，而針對某一群人在一段時間內重覆地收集其有關變項（包括類別型反應變項及解釋變項）的資料。這種重覆觀察的資料在統計的文獻上稱為長期追蹤研究資料。在這些長期追蹤研究上，研究者常利用迴歸模型建構的技巧來探討反應變項及解釋變項之間的關係。 一般常用的模型，著重於評估解釋變項對反應變項的當時及短期效應，當解釋變項比反應變項更頻繁地被觀測時，這些模型則不適用。當反應變項可在不同類別間變動時，我們通常有興趣去探討解釋變項如何去影響反應變項的演變或未來走向的趨勢，這種研究可稱之為類別型長期追蹤研究資料的未來趨勢分析。本論文提出了以馬可夫離散時間過程來建立類別型長期追蹤研究資料的模型。此模型不但可以捕捉到解釋變項對反應變項的未來趨勢效應；而且當解釋變項較反應變項更頻繁地被觀測時，本模型也可以利用解釋變項的完整訊息來做出更正確的統計推論。 / Many longitudinal studies in social science and medical science take repeated observations of an categorical outcome, along with several covariates, from follow-up subjects over a certain period of time. Such repeated observations are called longitudinal or panel data in the statistical literature. It is often of interest in these studies to investigate the relationship between the outcome and the covariates through regression modeling techniques. Commonly used models often focus on assessing the contemporary or short term effect of the covariate on the outcome, and can't incorporate time-varying covariates that are observed more or less frequently than the rate we observe the outcome. When the outcome fluctuates among different categories, it is often of interest to assess how covariates effect the evolution or trend of the underlying outcome process. Such assessment can be termed trend analysis of categorical panel data. In this thesis, we propose a Markov chain based regression model for analyzing nominal categorical panel data that are generated by a discrete time outcome process. The proposed model focuses on assessing the trend effect of the covariate on the categorical outcome, and is able to utilize the complete information of the covariates that are observed more or less frequently than the outcome.

製藥產業的屬性為民生必需工業，具有產品需求彈性低之特質，同時由於藥品影響人類健康，各國莫不希望引進具療效且安全性高之新藥，因此許多先進國家之藥廠，均以全球市場為腹地，積極推出新藥並申請各國專利，進行跨國行銷，所以全球製藥產業的發展，可視為一場國際競爭，而台灣的政府與製藥廠商也希望在全球製藥業之採購鍊上，取得適當卡位。近幾年，政府針對高科技產業，包括：製藥產業之發展，所必備的資本要素，提出各項重大改革，例如：民國86年主張「修訂第三類上市股票及上櫃股票科技事業審查要點」，民國89年實施「櫃檯買賣第二類股票制度」，對製藥產業資金的挹注很有助益。 資金的挹注雖是產業成長的契機之一，但由於製藥產業動態成長與不斷的演進，現有的法規、制度和產業環境，還需要政府適時修改不合時宜的法令，並規畫一個適合「製藥廠商」進行創新產業環境，同時廠商本身也應努力取得各項資源並有效使用，期使企業績效提昇能反映在製藥產業績效與國際競爭力上。換句話說，製藥產業內，希望取得大眾資金挹注之準上市（櫃）公司，如何藉由上市取得資本優勢，再轉換成企業競爭優勢以提昇經營績效應是燃眉之急。本研究認為準上市（櫃）藥廠，可借助已上市製藥廠，包括：中化、永信、生達與葡萄王之經驗，擷長補短以擬定適當的經營策略，相信對企業績效的提昇和獲得投資者的青睞應有正面助益。 所以本論文以已上市的製藥廠之經營策略發展趨勢和經營績效分析為研究主題，並同時比對政府政策、製藥廠商的策略作為趨勢及產業績效分析，試圖完整反應上市藥廠於後GMP時期（民國76年產業全面實施GMP認證制度後，至今）之經營動態，實證分析發現： 一、後GMP時期，中化、永信、生達之經營策略作為，具顯著的策略同形，且與製藥產業的發展趨勢相近。 二、後GMP時期之中化、永信、生達，三者之策略規畫，出現「同中有異」之現象，而葡萄王發展出截然不同的策略走向。 三、後GMP時期，政府根據製藥產業的需求，增修相關產業政策，中化、永信、生達也積極順應產業政策之變化，調整企業的各項經營策略。 四、永信、生達之營業成長率、投資報酬率、資本報酬率、固定資產周轉率、總資產周轉率佳，反應永信、生達的成長力、獲利力與經營效能良好；另一方面，中化則因過度使用財務槓桿、固定資產周轉率不佳及其轉投資大陸之獲利尚未能回補所投入的成本，形成其經營的困境，而葡萄王之營運體質雖良好，但因近幾年的獲利狀況不佳，稅後淨利在84、85年即低於產業水準，導致股價的表現疲軟。 五、根據第四項的財務指標綜合顯示，永信與生達是已上市藥廠間，其於成長力、獲利力與經營效能方面表現優異的廠商，印證其個別的經營策略發展趨勢，本研究推論下列策略目標有助於製藥廠商達到提高成長力、獲利力與經營效能之績效目標： 1. 開發自有品牌 2. 重視技術移轉，並積極與國內、外的學、研發機構或同業技術合作。 3. 不使用過高的財務槓桿，追求成長。 4. 企業應在製藥本業上追求專業化。 5. 謹慎評估大陸投資，定期評估公司的風險。 六、根據多元回歸分析，發現上市藥廠的毛利率、固定資產周轉率、總資產周轉率、研發費用佔銷售額的比率、應付帳款周轉率會影響上市藥廠之稅前淨利率、每股盈餘及總資產報酬率。亦即，上市藥廠雖具有規模（資本與營收）的優勢，但是企業是否能獲利，主要與其經營效能、研發投入、毛利率及是否取得供應商的信用融資相關。

中華民國第十任總統選舉結果於民國八十九年三月十八日揭曉，這場眾所矚目的選舉終告落幕，然而對選舉研究工作者而言卻是新的開始。選舉預測居選戰中重要的一環，也是研究選舉的學者關心的問題，更提供了一個驗證選民投票行為理論的絕佳機會，近來國內相關論述已有相當成果。但由於它在投票結束，便有答案，其挑戰程度不言而喻。因此，如何結合理論、方法及事實三者為一體的努力，對選舉預測更是別具意義。 本篇研究之範圍，是以公元2000年總統大選為例，對選舉預測工作做更深層的探討，且檢驗邏輯斯預測模型（Logistic Regression Model）及模糊統計（Fuzzy Statistics）分析在本次總統選舉的預測力，考量本次總統選舉中各項可能影響選情的因素，進一步建構選舉預測模式，然而兩種預測模式的初步預測結果並不佳，經過棄保效應的可能性調整後，預測誤差已大幅降低，其中模糊統計（Fuzzy Statistics）分析預測結果經棄保效應調整後，與實際開票結果相當接近，因此與邏輯斯預測模型相較，模糊統計分析的應用對未表態選民投票意向的預測力較佳。一套完整的選舉預測模型研究，應包含問卷設計、抽樣訪問、資料處理、加權除錯、模型設計與預測評估等整套研究流程，然而在本次總統大選中，由於三強激戰，影響選情因素相當複雜，最後此兩種選舉預測模式皆無法獲致精確的預測結果。因此，我們期待選舉預測模型的建構，能突破主客觀環境的侷限，進一步達到「準」與「穩」的要求。 / With the successful staging of the 2000 presidential elections in Taiwan, scholars have been presented with a new opportunity to test their theories. Electoral predictions are an important field within the study of elections and have been among the most keenly studied questions over the past few years. Unlike many other research topics, there is an absolute standard for election predictions: the election results. Thus, combining theory, methodology, and facts to obtain a meaningful result is no simple task. This thesis attempts to predict the 2000 presidential election using both a logistic regression model and a fuzzy statistics model. After constructing models which includes all kinds of different variables that might influence the electoral outcome, we find that neither the logistic regression model nor the fuzzy statistics model is particularly accurate. However, after accounting for the effects of strategic voting, model error decreases dramatically. In particular, after including provisions for strategic voting, the fuzzy statistics model is improved to the point that its predictions are extremely close to the actual outcome. Thus, we show that the fuzzy statistics model is superior to the logistic regression model in analyzing the vote choices of undecided voters. Research on electoral predictions should include such aspects as questionnaire design, sampling, interviewing, data processing, weighting, data cleaning, model design, and evaluation of the prediction. However, because this election featured a particularly intense three way race, the factors affecting the electoral outcome were both numerous and intertwined in complex ways. Unfortunately, it is impossible to evaluate our electoral predictions of the two models precisely. We hope that in the future, election prediction models will be able to break through these environmental limitations and achieve more accurate and stable predictions.

在保險業的經營體系中，傳統再保險所扮演的角色，一直是著重於分散保險公司的核保風險為最主要目的。然而隨者經濟市場與金融環境的變遷日益迅速，財務風險之分散與公司財務結構之改善，亦成為保險經營者所必須面臨之重要課題。而財務再保險於其中所可以產生之效益，則是除了可以滿足保險公司對於分散核保風險的原始需求外，另外亦可以做為其規劃財務結構的工具之一。 本篇論文探討之重點，除了介紹財務再保險的基本理論架構，和當今發展之趨勢外，如何運用財務再保險作為保險公司之風險管理與財務規劃，亦是本篇所要闡釋之主題，其中並以監理之角度，探討財務再保險所可能產生之弊端以及建議採取之因應措施，最後則以當今台灣保險市場的經營環境，分析壽險業對財務再保險合約的需求性。 略

規模效應是資本資產定價模型所無法解釋的報酬異常現象中，最常被討論的一個。本文首先將探討台灣股市是否具有規模效應情形，若有，再進一步檢視其型態為何。接下來，本文試圖了解是否公司發生財務危機的機率高低會與規模溢酬有所關連，亦即，小公司因為較容易發生財務危機事件，因此平均而言，較大公司有更高的報酬率。本研究將採用Shumway(2001)的羅吉斯迴歸模型來估算公司發生財務危機事件之機率，並且比較不同變數之預測能力如何。 經由實證結果，發現1986年至2009年的台灣股市具有規模效應情形，此結果與之前幾位研究者之研究結果相符。而在財務危機事件機率的部份，亦可看出發生財務危機機率較高的投資組合享有較高的報酬率，此情形在小市值規模的公司身上尤其明顯。從以上發現，我們可以推論財務危機風險確實為構成規模效應的因素之一。 / Size effect is one of wildly-discussed pricing anomalies that cannot be explained by capital assets pricing model, we would like to exam whether it exists in Taiwan stock markets and how its pattern is. Furthermore, we assume the higher financial distress risk a company has, the higher expected return it will earn. That is, there is positive correlation between financial distress risk and return. Following the logistic model developed by Shumway(2001), we explore the list of variables which have greater explanatory power in prediction. Through empirical data with stocks listed and ever listed on Taiwan Stock Exchange and GreTai Securities Market, we find size effect does exist. The result is consistent with previous study. We also see firms with higher distress risk tend to have higher returns, this condition is especially obvious in small companies. So we can infer that having higher distress risk is one of the reasons why small companies can earn higher returns, they are consistent with our conjecture.

在過去的產業發展經驗中，廠商群聚發展的模式常常是很重要的一個考量，透過群聚能夠產生降低交易成本、整合產業鏈、人才的相互流通等諸多效益，然而隨著時代與環境的變遷，創意慢慢成為廠商或者產業的競爭基礎。這樣的知識經濟時代來臨加上文化創意產業（簡稱文創產業）在各國興起，而為了能夠讓文創產業有適合的發展環境，文創產業的發展與規劃就必須借鏡過去產業發展的經驗，在台灣甚至很多其他國家都選擇以文化創意產業園區（簡稱文創園區）的方式輔導文創產業的發展，因為群聚的模式對過去產業發展是有貢獻的。 台灣目前所規劃的五大文創園區中位在台北市的華山園區是起步最早的一個，目前由台灣文創公司經營，而針對華山園區也有很多質疑的聲音，包括華山經營得太過商業化，甚至排除很多創作者在華山發展的機會等，儘管如此廠商集中群聚在華山園區內部仍然能夠分享到群聚所造成的各種幫助。 透過訪談與文獻分析發現，華山園區的群聚效應對於園內廠商的貢獻有四： (1)華山園區形成並提供跨界合作的平台，園區內的廠商透過跨界的交流與合作促成更多創新。 (2)華山園區開始形成一個文創品牌以後，除了透過高知名度吸引更多顧客以外，也辦理主題性的活動來吸引廠商所需要的目標族群，達成市場區隔。 (3)華山園區能促進人才交流與流動的發生，這樣的過程將有助於廠商的創新行為，在人才培育上華山預期在未來的BOT旗艦中心能有更積極的作為。 (4)華山園區能夠讓廠商與顧客接觸，進一步使組織的知識與顧客互動結合產生如何做（know how）的知識，並且再次透過園區來讓這些知識能夠累積、傳承。 / From past industrial experiences, clusters are considered not only to cut firms’ cost but also integrate their supply chains and other favorable effects. Creativity becomes the base of competition over time and cultural industries had grown up in many countries. In order to make a favorable environment for cultural industries, past industrial experiences are needed because of the big contribution of clusters to past industries. And the cultural industrial cluster mode is not only adopted in Taiwan but also in many other countries. There are 5 cultural industrial clusters in Taiwan. Huashan1914 Creative Park, the first one which was established. Even if there are some criticisms of the park such as about over commercialized operating and artists are crowded out. However, firms in the park shared advantages from this cluster in many ways. Contributions of clusters to cultural industries in Huashan1914 Creative Park’s case can be summed up through literature review and interviews. There are 4 items: (1) Huashan1914 Creative Park offers a platform that firms and individuals share their ideas on it. The ideas on the platform are interdisciplinary. Moreover, the platform also stimulates collaborations and brings more innovations. (2) Since Huashan1914 Creative Park becomes a brand name, it attracts more customers by its high profile and also distinguishes the target customers from the public for firms in the park by holding events. (3) Huashan1914 Creative Park stimulates people to interact with each other and it’s also helpful to firms’ innovations. Moreover, Huashan1914 Creative Park is looking forward to making bigger and more contributions of talent cultivation after it finishes the BOT building. (4) The firms combine their organizational knowledge with the experiences of talking and interacting with customers in Huashan1914 Creative Park, thus the firms have their know how knowledge. And firms cumulate and create much knowledge by the park once again.

台灣期貨交易所於92年1月20日推出到期採實物交割的股票選擇權契約，希望能提供市場更豐富、更多元的避險以及套利機能。然自股票選擇權推出以來，市場成交量並未如預期般蓬勃發展，便失去台灣期貨交易所推出股票選擇權之用意，不能使其充分發揮其多元之避險套利機能。多數人主觀認為，採用現金交割方式的衍生性金融商品容易受到人為操縱。一般而言，研究市場的人為操縱因子多以報酬波動率及到期日效應作為觀察指標，因此商品之交割方式與報酬波動率及到期日效應有一定之關聯。然而近來國外許多相關研究發現，採實物交割與現金交割，對股票選擇權的到期日效應並未產生差異，反而是透過結算制度的設計，可以有效降低人為操縱的機率。本研究旨在研究股票選擇權改採現金交割之可行性分析，研究到期日採現金交割是否就是增加人為操縱機率的主要因素，且到期日效應與到期交割方式是否又有絕對的關係？而根據文獻了解，到期日報酬波動率與受人為操縱之跡象是呈現正向關係。 / 因此本研究對指數期貨在到期日與非到期日時對指數現貨價格以及個股股價報酬波動率的影響程度進行實證分析，以報酬波動率之異常現象判斷是否有所謂到期日效應。 本研究實證結果指出，在台指期貨到期日報酬波動率和摩根台指期貨到期日的報酬波動率實證結果發現所有樣本在台指期貨到期日的報酬波動率都顯著高於摩根台指期貨到期日的報酬波動率。顯示台指期貨結算制度雖為到期日下一交易日開盤前十五分鐘個股成交量加權平均價結算，但並未有效降低異常報酬波動率的發生。根據國外研究結果發現，個股期貨能降低到期日效應之影響。此外，採實物交割與現金交割，對股票選擇權的到期日效應並未產生差異。為了降低到期日效應且提升市場的效率性，建議股票選擇權改為現金交割之外，尚可考慮開放個股期貨的交易。 / Taiwan Futures Exchange launched stock options on January 20, 2003, hoping to provide the market with more hedging and arbitraging opportunities. However, the trading volume does not grow as was expected. The low trading volume does not meet Taiwan Futures Exchange’s goal to provide the market with hedging and arbitraging mechanism. Most people think that derivatives applying cash settlement lead to manipulation. Researchers studying manipulations take the volatility of returns and expiration effects as the factors of their studies. However, some recent studies suggest applying cash settlement or physical settlement does not have much impact on expiration effects, while applying proper settlement system can reduce manipulation. / This research investigated the possibility of stock options applying cash settlement and examined the volatility of returns of stock indexes and stock prices during settlement and non-settlement days to determine if expiration effects exist. In this study, we found the volatilities of returns of all samples during TAIFEX settlement days are significantly higher than the volatilities of returns during SIMEX settlement days. All of our samples have significant higher volatilities of returns during TAIFEX settlement days and SIMEX settlement days except CMO, which does not have significant higher volatility of returns during SIMEX settlement days. Other researches point out the adopting of stock futures reduces the expiration effects. Furthermore, adopting cash settlement or physical settlement does have much impact on expiration effects. To decrease the expiration effect and to increase the effectiveness of the market, this study proposes the adoption of cash settlement and the launching of stock futures.

本文研究目的，在於解釋在中國大陸眾多開發區之間，為何有些開發區發展相對成功，有些開發區卻成為閒置土地、基礎建設落後、外資裹足不前？造成開發區發展差異的誘因究竟為何？本文認為由中國國務院批准的開發區，享有國家級開發區的「閃亮招牌」，並且在法律上，其稅收優惠政策，相對比省級開發區來了更為清晰、更有保障。同時，開發區所在地是否位居沿海、鄰近國際大都會，或者是建立在城市市區，開發區的地理位置，也是造成開發區發展差異重要因素之一。此外，開發區的產業群聚現況，以及開發區與當地大學的結合，都深深影響著開發區產業群聚效應的發展。最後，對於開發區與地方政府之間的財政關係，本文認為，若開發區能獨立運用財政收入，包括土地出讓金與稅收收入，甚至管委會可以設立財源獨立的投資總公司的話，開發區基礎建設經費來源，將相對獲得保障，開發區因而更具發展潛力。 在研究方法上，除了文獻分析法外，作者以山東濟南作為個案，透過為期兩個月的實地田野調查，對當地開發區官員、濟南市政府相關部門進行了深度訪談，藉此比較並歸納造成開發區發展差異誘因。