摘 要 隨著經濟發展和人均收入水平的提高，中國的石油消費逐年增加，從1993年起成為石油淨進口國後，石油的對外依存度即逐年升高，直至2003年更成為世界第二大石油進口國和消費國。由於石油屬國家戰略物資，所以石油供應安全已成為影響中國經濟崛起和國家發展的戰略問題。由於持續的經濟發展對中國而言，對內是維繫共產政權，爭取民眾對於一黨專政政治體制認同主要法器，對外更是緩和與週邊國家關係，反制西方國家和平演變長期戰略的主要對策，所以能源問題不僅關係其經濟的興衰，更觸國內政治與國際關係的穩定。但中國現階段能源中的主項―石油，不但內部有油源枯竭、對外依存度過高問題，更有來自外部的油價飆漲、通路安全脆弱、油源遭大國牽制等諸多問題，使得石油安全形勢更顯嚴峻。 中國為解決現存石油安全問題，所研提出的戰略框架主要係以「收支系統」、「運儲體系」與「替代開發」三大安全架構組成，此三大架構主要政策內涵括：加強國內石油勘探開發，開發利用天然氣，實行進口原油多元化，「走出去」開發海外資源，建立國家石油儲備，節約用油並開發油氣替代能源等，進一步擴大能源貿易和投資的開放程度，充分利用國內外兩種資源、兩個市場，構築新世紀中國能源安全體系等等。 中國目前雖積極推行既定石油安全戰略，但預期未來仍將揹負政府職能不彰、國企壟斷、低耗能產業發展不易等內部包袱隱憂及外部的國際市場競爭、美國地緣戰略包圍、通路安全威脅、與南海爭議等等諸多問題與挑戰。然就國際體系而言，若單以國際間權力平衡角度觀之，中國不斷對外積極要油，除導致國際石油油價節節上揚外，亦將使國際石油競爭愈加白熱化；惟若在經濟全球化利益臍帶的連動因素牽引下，中國的石油安全戰略應可供給支援國內經濟發展最低要求準位，因而對其戰略發展可視為成功。 最後本文認為，中國未來石油戰略發展對外政策近程仍是以爭取傳統中東油源區穩定供給為主要目標，中程則以爭取與俄羅斯遠東及中亞□海地區合作為主要著演、長程目標則覬覦東海及東南海域油區的爭奪與開發。另從國家間權力平衡的本質與經濟全球化的必然發展，導出未來油源控制國與中國在石油供給間所形成「門派師徒」模型，並從此模型中，預判未來各油源控制國對中國將是採「互利不互信、掌握制油權」的姿態反應，而中國則以「擴大合作面，增強影響力」相對，並且在國家追求利益的前提下，為確保其能源版圖的完整，在跨世紀後必然邁向遠洋建軍戰備，以軍事大國的姿態，爭取維護石油供需平衡之主導權。 / Though China has actively promoted the oil security strategy, it will face many internal and external problems and challenges such as inefficient bureaucracy, monopolization of states-owned enterprises, difficulty of developing low energy-consuming industry, competition from international markets, America's geographic strategic containment, conveyance threat, and South China Sea disputes. In the view of the balance of international powers, that China seeks for foreign oil supply causes not only the increase of the international oil price, but also the keen competition of oil obtaining. However, from the angle of economic globalization, China's oil security strategy could have met its lowest demand of domestic economy development, and can be regarded as a success in terms of its strategic development. The conclusion of this research is: In the short term, the Middle East is still the first priority for China to obtain the oil supply; in the middle term, China will strive for cooperation with Russia and the central Asia; and in the long term, China will covet the oil field in the Eastern Sea and the Southeast Sea. In addition, from the nature of international power balance and the development of the economical globalization, we propose the “Master-Disciple model.” With this model, we forecast that the attitude of oil supply countries to China will be “mutual benefit but not mutual trust, and to control the supremacy of oil supply.” On the other side, the response of China will be “to expand the cooperative scope and influence.” Under the condition to pursue its national benefits, China will be heading for the military preparation toward the blue sea and fighting for the leading role to balance the oil supply and demand as a military powder in order to completely control the oil supply. With the economic development and the average income increase, China's oil consumption has been growing year by year. Ever since it became an oil net import country in 1993, china's dependence on foreign supply has been rising annually; till 2003. China had became the second largest oil importing and consuming country in the world. Since the oil is a. strategic material, the oil supply security has become a strategic issue which affects China's economic growth and national development. To china, sustainable economic development is not only the tool to maintain the communist regime and earn the recognition from the public for the mono-party political system, but also a strategy to ease the tense relationship with its neighboring countries and defend itself from the peaceful reforming strategy implemented by the western countries. However, the problems such as China's domestic oil exhaustion, high dependence on foreign supply and international skyrocketing oil price, the vulnerable conveyance; and the oil source controlled by the super powers have severely endangered china's oil security. To solve the existing oil security problems, China has built the strategic framework consisted of three security components: Revenue and Expenditure System, Conveyance and Storage System, Substitute Development, to reinforce oil exploration, exploit and make use of nature gas, import the crude from diversified countries, exploit foreign resources, build national oil-bearing structure, use oil carefully and develop substitute energy, expand energy trading and investment, and fully utilize The two resources and markets of domestic and overseas, so as to help China build the energy security system in the new era.

從1986年起，因為經濟大幅成長，中國的石油需求也隨之增加，但是中國國內的石油生產卻開始下降。進入後冷戰時期，中國的石油供給更已無法自給自足，成為仰賴石油進口的國家。透過傳統現實主義理論對石油安全進行討論，我們可以得知，石油不僅僅牽涉到經濟的發展，也牽涉到國力的強弱與否。因此，石油對於一個國家在國際政治的地位或是經濟發展上都扮演了十分重要的角色，中國也因而必須考量石油對於國家安全的影響。本研究即自地緣政治觀點，分析中國石油能源與國家安全。 中國目前建構的石油安全體系，是以國內的石油化學產業的改革為基礎，以石油化學產業為工具，建構取得油源的石油外交體系，同時積極分散油源。由中國所規劃的中南半島輸油路線，中巴、中孟輸油路線，以及已經開始建設的中俄、中哈輸油路線都是以分散石油運輸路線為目標。運輸路線的規劃就是以地緣政治為出發點考量，透過與周邊國的關係建構石油運輸。 然而，儘管中國積極推動分散油源、油路的石油安全戰略，卻也牽涉到各強國在各地區的利益問題，以及各地區內部的政治、經濟、族群、宗教等問題。例如中東內部有以阿衝突、反美等問題，非洲的新興油源國、中亞各國內部都有因為宗教、政治導致的問題，而美、俄、日、印等大國與中國也在各地有所利益衝突，即使中國與俄羅斯有合作關係，卻也在中亞地區有利益競爭的關係。所以不僅中國與各強國之間有合作也有競爭外，也必須面對各個地區內部的各種問題。 / Since 1986, China’s demands for petroleum had increased extensively with the significant growth of economy, but the domestic production of petroleum decreased relatively. In the post-Cold War period, China was non-self-sufficient on supplying petroleum, and became a state which depending on importing petroleum thereout. By the discussion on the security of petroleum with the theory of traditional realism, we can conclude that the petroleum doesn’t only concern the development of economy but also concern the strength of nations. Therefore, we can see that petroleum plays an important role both on the status of international politics and the development of economy, and China must concern the influence of petroleum to national security thereof. Then, the proposal of this thesis is to analyse the relationship between supplies and demands of petroleum and the national security of China with the view of geo-politics. The petroleum security system of China was framed on the basis of the revolution of domestic petroleum chemical industry, so as to frame her petroleum diplomacy system to acquire the petroleum, and decentralize the sources of petroleum meanwhile. The oil pipeline ways set up by China was formulated according to the goal of decentralizing the pipeline of petroleum, such as Medium South Peninsula pipeline, China-Pakistan pipeline, China-Bengal pipeline, China-Russia pipeline, and the China- Kazakhstan pipeline. Therefore, we can conclude that China set up its oil pipeline by establishimg the relations with surrounding nations which concerning geo-politics. However, the strategies of petroleum security that decentralizing oil pipelines and petroleum sources was involved with the conflicts of interests among powerful nations in all areas, including the conflicts of politics, economy, race, and religion. For examples, there are conflicts between Israel and Palestine, and anti-American issue in Middle-East area. There are conflicts among the nations in middle Asia which caused by religion and politics. And there are conflicts of interests among USA, Russia, Japan, Indian and China all over the world. So does China conflict with Russia in middle Asia, even though there is a cooperative relation between them. In general, China does not only cooperate with other powerful nations but also contend against them. Furthermore, China has to face the conflicts and issues caused in every area when she promotes the strategy of petroleum security.

中國的崛起如同現實主義對於國家間衝突的解釋，亦即國際間對於中國威脅的廣泛論述，不論其威脅是否真實存在，其對國際間的影響已是不可否認的事實。1993年中國成為石油淨進口國，這是自1963年以來中國首次出現的石油赤字，宣示了中國石油供應自給自足局面的結束，也開啟了中國能源政策對外擴張的開始。 中國正由計劃經濟朝向其所謂的社會主義市場經濟轉型，對於在2050年達到中等發達國家水平的目標而言，現階段的發展將是一個重要的轉折。中國的經濟發展計畫，預約了對於石油的消費，其能源消費結構的錯置與供應來源的單一性以及潛在的脆弱性，對於中國的能源安全來說無疑是一個潛在的負面因素。尤其是當增加石油進口成為解決中國能源安全矛盾的必要路徑時，對外的能源政策將是確保中國能源安全是否穩定的關鍵點。 國家為了能源的安全獲得確保，必然發展對內保護對外擴張的能源政策，尤其是仰類進口能源的國家，其對外的能源政策將更具侵略性。中國的能源安全戰略圍繞在多元化為中心的概念展開，包括能源的來源、種類、路線以及運輸與獲得方式的多元化。對內，中國透過多元管道強化本身的能源安全鏈，避免對於進口石油產生過度依賴。對外，中國領導階層積極的出訪，綜合外交的力量推展「能源外交」，全方位的在全球佈局，突破大國對中國軟性的圍堵，除了獲得實質的石油收益外，也開啟了中國外交的新趨向。 / China rises abruptly symbolizes the explanation of realism is on a collision between the countries. Meanwhile the world make a popular discussion about they were threatened by China. Whatever it exist or inexistence, but it definitely influence the whole world. Until 1993 China became the petroleum importer that caused first deficit in China since 1963. It announced to end in self-contained petroleum and commence opening the extensive of energy resources policy. The China is going to plan the economics that go forward and change into socialist marketing. For the 2050, they’ll expect to achieve the goal of middle-development country, and a turning point in the developing at this most important stage now. In their economics- development planning which bespeak the petrol expense is error of structures of resources expense, single-supply source and potential frailty. It was without doubt that potential negative factors for safety of energy resources of China. When they increase to import the petroleum, it becomes to solve the safety of energy resources was confusing with necessary method. An external policy of energy resources will ensure China to connect the safety of energy resources if it's stable. They need safety of energy resources was assured so that they must develop the policies are internal protection and external extension. Especially the country depend on the resources imported, the external policy will more invasion. The safe policies of resources are around the conception of diversity are origin, kinds, channels, transportation and so on. For domestic policies, China use the diverse channels to strong the energy in Security and avoid to over rely on the imported petroleum. For foreign policies, China leaderships are highly active to make an official visit and diplomatic power combined to promote the “Energy diplomacy”. They operated the overall strategy of global and broke through soft containment of super state to them. Therefore China not only gains much benefit of petroleum virtually but opens the new tending of diplomacy.

觀察美國占領伊拉克的首要目的並不是確保該國向美國輸送大量的廉價石油。其背後的真實目的，是直接控制伊拉克的石油，防止其流向潛在的對手，尤其是中國。這是一場先發制人的戰爭，試圖讓中國在英美控制的中東地區無落腳之地。波斯灣，世界石油供應的戰略重地，被美國控制已是不爭的事實，這個看法在中國之外也被廣泛認同。通過印度洋到達東北亞的海陸，是中國石油進口的主要通道，現在也被美國海軍所控制。讓人不足為奇的是，北京不僅關心這對其戰略的影響，還擔心對中國經濟的影響，更不用說對社會和政治穩定及整個國家的影響。北京最為擔心的是，美國會切斷中國的油路。 未來中國要如何因應美國亞洲戰略再平衡，除了以(一路一帶及亞投行)來解決減少麻六甲海峽的風險外，最為重要的關鍵點在於與俄羅斯的結盟因素及鄰近國家建立友好情誼，藉以突破美國的封鎖，冷戰雖然已經過去，但是看見圍堵政策似乎又悄悄啟動，這個議題是引起我關心進而產生興趣。

在空氣污染、溫室效應及能源危機日益嚴重下，又鑑於移動污染源(也就是汽車排放)是空氣污 染之最大原凶，民國 80 年政府政策宣誓，建設液化石油氣汽車加氣站改善空污，責成中國石油 公司開始辦理台北、台中、高雄三座示範站。 用液化石油氣為燃料之車輛，具有經濟、環保、安全的特性；(經濟性)在車輛使用人立即節省 40%燃料費支出，(環保性)是燃料完全燃燒不排放二氧化碳、苯、硫、鉛等致癌物質，(安全性) 是使用液化石油氣(註一、)為燃料車輛較使用汽油為燃料之車輛更安全,歐盟環保亦已此為重點 項目之一，大力推行。 此一行業在政府鼓勵下，從民國 82 年起發展，燃料由中油、台塑提供車用液化石油氣，車輛使 用人在汽車加汽站取得灌裝，整個產業鏈是自國外進口車輛改裝套件、在國內設備認證改裝簽 證、國內設置汽車加氣站加氣服務，合格改裝廠為車輛維修保養，是當下發展成熟又環保之產 品，理當政府扶持且鼓勵， 但近年政府在利益團體遊說下，調整了政策,本研究嘗試從相關液化石油氣加氣站產業鏈環保現 況發展、市場競爭、業者努力、政府政策，得出不同因素影響下，在合理狀況，作出決策探詢 加氣站未來經營方向。

中華人民共和國為世界主要強權之一，且為現存最大的共產主義國家，而哈薩克斯坦共和國為前蘇聯加盟共和國之中，最大的非斯拉夫民族共和國，1991年底獨立後成為世界第九大國、最大內陸國及中亞地區最大國。中共在哈薩克獨立後隨即與之建交，兩國建交迄今將近20年，兩國非惟在政治、外交、安全層面合作密切，歷年簽署的雙邊條約或行政協議、公報、宣言汗牛充棟，近年在經濟、能源層面的高度互補，也引起各界的關注。 本文透過歷史分析法，追溯當代哈薩克民族國家的起源，回顧近代哈薩克與中國之間的外交演變，包括清朝時期、國民政府時期及中共建政時期，並以此歷史脈絡作為認識哈薩克獨立後中哈雙邊關係之基礎。而在2001年上海合作組織成立後，中哈之間除了既有的雙邊關係，又增加了多邊關係的互動平台，是故本文以2001年上海合作組織成立的時點作為分野，將中哈關係分成前、後二階段探討，並分別就兩國政治、經濟、能源與安全四大議題分別論述評析。最後，鑑於中亞地區在國際地緣戰略上的重要價值，中哈關係的發展始終受到其他強權外部因素的影響，因此特別針對俄羅斯、美國、歐盟國家、印度等對哈薩克亦抱持戰略興趣的國家，深入研析該等國家對哈薩克的外交作為，以暸解對於中哈關係產生的衝擊。 本文發現，中哈之間目前除水資源爭議外並無利益衝突，在以疆界問題為主的高度政治議題解決後，兩國在低度政治議題特別是石油領域，建交至今有長足的進步，符合哈薩克「石油興國」的目標，更成就中國「油源多元化」以打破「麻六甲困境」的能源安全大佈局。因此，中哈關係在目前國際環境條件不變之下，在各自以國家利益為前提下，可望繼續深化友好，促使中國與中亞地區產生更緊密連結。 / The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is nowadays one of the major powers in the world and the largest communist country. Republic of Kazakhstan (Қазақстан Республикасы) is the largest non-Slavic peoples component of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), and after its independence, it becomes the 9th largest country in the world and the most important and the largest country in central Asia. The PRC and Kazakhstan has established diplomatic relations since January, 1992 soon following Kazakhstan’s declaration of independence on Dec. 16, 1991. The PRC-Kazakhstan diplomatic relations are growing closer not merely in high politics such as diplomacy and security issues, but also in low politics such as economy and energy issues. The two countries have signed and reached certain treaties, agreements, bulletins and pronouncements as well. This thesis reviews the origin of Kazakhstanian nation state and the transformation of mutual relations from the Chin Dynasty to the eve of Kazakhstan’s independence on the basis of the historical analytic approach and evaluates the present PRC-Kazakhstan diplomatic relations. Moreover, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was founded in Jun. 15, 2001 and it offered a multilateral channel for the PRC and Kazakhstan to dialogue and negotiate with each other. So this thesis divides the PRC-Kazakhstan diplomatic relations into two periods by the crucial year 2001 and therefore compares bilateral political, economical, energy and security (including anti-terrorism) issues before and after 2001. Nevertheless, the PRC-Kazakhstan diplomatic relations are always under the influence of other major powers such as Russia, the USA, the EU or even India due to the geopolitical value of central Asia, the so-called “heartland” of the “world island” in Mackinder’s theory. As a result, this thesis discusses on the impact by these behaviors upon the PRC-Kazakhstan diplomatic relations and its resolutions. Finally, this thesis concludes that the PRC-Kazakhstan diplomatic relations are getting better with the time except for water resource issue. Their first cooperative item is petroleum mining and transportation. By doing so, Kazakhstan can trade foreign exchange to develop economy, while the PRC can ensure its petroleum import from “Malacca” dilemma and avoid energy hunger. Hence, looking forward to the future of the PRC-Kazakhstan diplomatic relations, they will build closer tie than ever under their national interests, and play more important roles both in central Asia and the world politics.

石油是維持人類生存必需的商品，是容易運輸、儲存、使用的能源。石油價格的漲跌，將直接或間接影響經濟成長與物價水準。以公司營運來說，對海運業、航空業、石油公司等石油高度相關行業來說，購油成本一直佔據公司總成本相當大的比例，因此石油價格的變動，將使得會計年度內的購油成本高低相差甚大，進而影響公司整體營運利潤，因此購油決策重要性自不待言。當預測油價會上漲時，則公司將會以較低的石油價格購入較多的石油事先加以貯存或使用，以降低全年購油成本與分散風險。本文嘗試著導入模糊統計的概念並建立多變量多階自廻歸模糊時間數列模式，以期應用在油價之預測。實證方面則收集紐約商品交易所 (NYMEX: New York Mercantile Exchange) 的每日原油收盤價原始資料，針對原油價格進行模糊時間數列分析與預測，並比較命中率、誤差率與準確度。相信這對於購油風險控管及降低成本，提高公司盈餘深具意義。

在中共「以黨領政」的黨國體制下，中共菁英政治的演變一向為研究中共政治的一門重要課題，菁英流動的模式與規則化則是為評析中共菁英甄補的主要觀察項目。本文的研究旨趣乃從菁英甄補的視角出發，以中國中央級國有企業高階領導幹部作為實證對象，個案產業則涵蓋石油石化、電力以及電信等三大產業共13家央企。藉由對央企領導幹部個人簡歷的查察，梳理國有企業領導幹部的晉升與流動路徑，以充實中共菁英政治研究在國有企業領導幹部此一區塊上的觀察。 本文發現，儘管國有企業歷經長時改革的過程，但在幹部人事晉用的層次上，中共黨國專制性的角色並未出現鬆動，改變只發生在企業徵用人員時，領導幹部個人所繫有之任用年齡年輕化、專業與學歷要求門檻的提高。在仕途發展方面，「企業黨組領導職務」與「產業類別」則為決定企業領導幹部個人流動與能否取得晉升機會的關鍵。以前者言，若國企領導幹部具有企業黨組書記、副書記的任職經驗，則相對具備有明顯的仕途競爭優勢。就後者而論，本文則提出一套中共操作國有企業菁英幹部甄補的規則：任職於石油石化產業的央企領導幹部，若於任內兼任黨組書記或黨組副書記一職，可以期待未來離任企業領導後，將具有較強的競爭力轉入政府部門副部級以上職位述職。電力及電信業央企領導幹部，若於任內兼任黨組書記或黨組副書記一職，則以轉任業內其他央企更高領導職位作為主要出路，並且作為幹部在個人離退前的最後一項職務。總結來說，「企業黨組領導職務」決定升遷的「准入機會」，「產業類別」則攸關晉升的部門流向。

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地域研究) / 甲第20488号 / 地博第207号 / 新制||地||74(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院アジア・アフリカ地域研究研究科東南アジア地域研究専攻 / (主査)教授 岡本 正明, 教授 水野 広祐, 教授 玉田 芳史, 佐藤 百合 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Area Studies / Kyoto University / DGAM

當二十一世紀時序進入全球化時代之後，在全球氣候變遷與石化燃料價格高漲的影響之下，世界各國為了保障本身經濟發展所需的能源，即在世界範圍內展開激烈的鬥爭，甚至因此而導致了嚴重衝突和戰爭。當今全球能源消費結構中，石化能源仍居主導地位，存量的有限與需求增長之間矛盾日益顯著，因此，能源短缺已成為國家經濟發展的巨大瓶頸，全球性的能源爭奪態勢愈演愈烈。隨著全球化時代的到來，大部分發展中國家(尤其是亞太地區)工業化和現代化的進程相對加速，面對世界能源的需求也不斷增加，中國大陸就是最典型的例子。 大陸的能源戰略和海外投資，通常都是一個足以為外界激烈辯論的主題(例如「中國能源威脅論」)。中國大陸緊鄰著中亞區域，蘊藏著豐富的石油和天然氣儲備量，在這個區域發揮高度的能源戰略，似乎是中國大陸最可能的重要手段，另一方面亦藉以減輕其對來自中東的能源供應的依賴，若能掌握該區，大陸就可以減少對中東油源供應的依賴，種種徵候都明確顯示大陸積極鞏固國土疆域與追求能源安全戰略的全般優勢。 / When the timing to enter the twenty-first century era of globalization, under the global climate change and the impact of rising fossil fuel prices, the international community in order to protect its own economic development needed energy that fierce struggle, and even lead to serious conflicts and wars . Today's global energy consumption structure, petrochemical and energy continued to hold a dominant position, the contradiction between the finite and the demand for stock grew increasingly significant, therefore, the energy shortage has become a huge bottleneck in socio-economic development, global energy muddied intensified. With the advent of the era of globalization, (especially in the Asia-Pacific region) industrialization and modernization process in most developing countries relative acceleration, facing the world's energy demands are increasing, China is the most typical example. China's overseas energy strategy and investments are usually sufficient for the outside world a hotly debated topic (such as "China energy threat"). China close to the Central Asian region, rich in oil and natural gas reserves in the region to play a highly energy strategy, China seems to be the most important means possible, on the other hand also so as to reduce its dependence on energy supplies from the Middle East , if we grasp this area, China can reduce its dependence on Middle East oil supply source, various incidents have clearly demonstrated China's active pursuit of the full consolidation of Land and territory advantages like energy security strategy.