隨著新世紀的到來，全球化進程加速進行，國際政治關係和國際經濟關係都獲得了新的發展。世界範圍內的石油供應、需求、資本市場已形成多元化發展趨勢，顯示出世界能源格局已拉開了新一輪大調整的序幕。世界主要強國紛紛制定了本國的能源發展戰略。中共是石油的生產大國，也是消費大國和世界上最大的進口國之一，石油消費對外依存度超過了50％，能源安全形勢非常嚴峻。如何加強能源安全，有效化解油價風險，減輕油價對國民經濟的影響，已經成為中共刻不容緩的課題。 中共石油戰略的核心在以走出去戰略來確保石油供應的穩定，走出去戰略的具體意涵，包括總體原則「謀發展、求互利、促多元」，開發市場的選擇是首重是週邊國家，東南亞與中亞地區，長遠發展須加強中東與非洲國家的合作，並依不同地區設計資源開發的方式和布局，最後是保障石油的供給與運輸安全，其手段，開展海外投資合作、進行跨國收購兼併、參與產權和風險市場的競爭。 中共石油戰略的執行包括體制面及石油上、中、下游四大層面的具體作為，其內容包括訂定能源法規、建全石油體制發展；引進來戰略及研發採油技術，提高國內油田生產量，石油外交、參與國際多邊組織為平台，積極與國外合作勘探與開發，達成進口多元化與多樣化；運輸多元化方面，廣建國內鐵路網，達成北油南調、西油東運，與多國合作研擬替代通道的可行性，並積極擴建國內油輪的比例，在消費與再生能利用；提高能源使用效率與調整能源組成結構、運用研發再生能等。 中共雖以制定出完整的石油戰略框架，但仍需面對能源管理決策混亂，國內石油生產增長有限，海上開採易與鄰國產生領土糾紛，海上護油能力薄弱，戰備千億資金負擔沉重，再生能受成本、市場、政策制約，發展不易等制約；在國際上面臨大國國際競爭壓力、石油外交易生安全困境、多邊合作機制難以形成合作共識、麻六甲海峽替代通道短期難以實現及世界環保意識提高等挑戰。 最後中共石油戰略的推展，對現有體系產生影響，區分為中共部份，包括國家安全、經濟外交、建軍備戰方面；區域方面，包括亞太共同體推展、區域能源競合雙嬴與區域安全潛在衝突加劇；在國際社會方面，包括中共擔任起崛起大國角色、提升第三世界國際地位及引發國際能源價格高漲等影響。

從第一、二次世界大戰、1973年石油危機，以至上世紀末與本世紀初兩次波斯灣戰爭都清楚顯示，石油一直是現代工業社會最有戰略意義的能源和基礎原料。由於石油儲藏與產區主要集中在中東（佔世界3/4石油儲藏及1/4產量）、中南美、非洲及前蘇聯國家，而這些石油資源豐富的國家往往是政治最不安定、衝突頻仍的地區，常造成世界石油市場供應的風險。回顧歷史，為了控制石油資源，曾造成許多國際衝突，甚至引發戰爭，我們有足夠的理由相信，石油爭奪仍會是現今或是未來國際政治經濟情勢緊張的焦點。 美國是世界石油消耗最大的國家（每日2000萬桶，佔全球石油總消耗的25％），俄羅斯是石油生產最大的國家（每日800萬桶，佔全球石油總生產的10％），中共是石油消費成長最快的國家（2003年石油輸入比前一年增加31％），還有歐盟及日本，上述強權國家在全球石油資源區展開激烈競逐，當中有合作，也有利益的衝突。2003年伊拉克戰爭，美國為中東的石油利益與歐洲盟邦（德、法）及俄羅斯的關係發生嚴重裂痕，至今仍難以撫平。「控制資源的流動是自古以來的策略，誰控制資源誰就能獲得權力；誰控制石油的供應，就能控制世界」。911之後，美國以反恐戰爭展開全球性的軍力部署，其中隱含著石油戰略的佈局。 本論文以國際政治經濟學的「霸權穩定論」做為研究的途徑，研究發現霸權爭奪石油乃是國際衝突的主要變數。本文的貢獻在於，將霸權國爭奪石油的手段與方式透過有系統的解釋與分析加以重現；另外，以石油戰爭的起因指出「霸權穩定論」的矛盾與偏失。我國是石油淨進口國，對石油的依賴度高，與石油相關議題有很大的研究空間。作者希望藉此引發研究石油議題的興趣，提高國人對石油議題的重視。 關鍵詞：霸權、 霸權穩定論、 石油危機、 石油戰略

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無 / This thesis highlights the strategic triangle of oil relations between China, the US and Venezuela by analyzing their petro-diplomacy campaigns and domestic oil strategies. Research which has empirically documented the oil conditions of China, Venezuela, and the United States and their use of strategies is scant. Therefore, the aim of this thesis attempts to explore how their oil relations and national oil strategies are related, as these three countries all need to strengthen their national energy strategies and focus attention on energy security. This thesis will also look at the sensitivity and vulnerability of these triangular oil relations by analyzing each bilateral conflicts and cooperation, and at the concerns arising from this in a Strategic Triangle Theory framework. The main goal is to understand the trilateral oil interactions between China, Venezuela, and the United States and better minimize the conflicts and tensions between them.

世界各國的石油能源戰略對中國及臺灣都產生了相對的影響， 國際石油市場的動盪，進一步強化了各國建立本國石油安全戰略的決 心和加強了保證石油安全的具體措施。主要能源消費國石油安全戰略 將不斷完善其能源戰略準備，積極尋求降低海外能源依賴的策略，例 如美國能源政策的首要任務是減少對國外能源的依賴，並制訂了將對 中東石油依賴降低75%的具體目標。日本新能源戰略提出，在2030 年之前，將日本企業在海外自主開採的石油產量從現在占進口量的 15%提高到40%以上。歐盟則積極尋求加強與阿爾及利亞等周邊能源 供應國的戰略合作，來推動能源來源多元化，降低對俄能源的依賴。 各國展開能源的爭奪，增加石油戰略儲備，將使國際油價持續高 漲，儲油成本提高，也大幅增加中國購油成本，並進一步影響相關產 業之利潤。國際能源爭奪不利中國供應安全，也已嚴重壓縮台灣於海 外投資與爭取油氣田的空間與機會。 2008 年8 月8 日中國成立了國家能源部，石油能源戰略愈趨積 極靈活，在確立了戰略指導、戰術規劃及戰術執行機構之後，隨即召 開了首屆全國能源工作會議，顯示中國能源管理體制改革邁出了第一 步。而中國能源外交政策所進行的「走出去」戰略，已對各世界國形 成相當顯著的壓迫。中國正加快石油能源戰略的各項作為，藉由合作 開發原油，使其得以掌握原油資源之控制權，對於台灣原油來源之掌 握，是否造成衝擊，值得深入評估。 / The energy strategies of countries have their respective influences over China and Taiwan. The fluctuations of international oil markets further strengthen the determination of countries to establish their oil security strategies and to beef up solid measure to guarantee oil security. Major energy-consuming countries will continue to improve their strategic energy reserves and actively seek a strategy to reduce their reliance on overseas energy. For example, the principle task of the America’s energy policy is to reduce reliance on overseas energy. Washington has mapped out a concrete objective of reducing reliance on Middle East oil by 75%. Japan’s new energy strategy stipulates that by 2030, oil produced by Japanese enterprise overseas independently will be raised to take up from 15% to more than 40% of Japan’s total oil import. In contrast, the EU has sought actively to strengthen strategic cooperation with neighboring energy-supplying countries like Algeria in order to diversify energy sources while reduce reliance on Russian energy. The scramble for energy and increases in strategic oil reserves will continue to drive up international oil prices. Rising cost for oil reserves will significantly raise China’s cost in buying oil and affect the profits of relevant industries. The global scramble for energy is not conductive for China’s supply security and seriously compresses Taiwan’s space and opportunity in overseas investment and Taiwan’s effort to obtain oil and gas fields. China set up the National Energy Administration In August 8, 2008. China’s oil and energy strategy has become increasingly proactive and flexible. Following the establishment of strategic guidelines, tactical plans, and administrative structures, China convened its first national energy conference. This indicates China has embarked on the reform of its energy administrative institution. China’s “going out ” energy diplomacy has created a significant amount of pressure on countries around the world. China is speeding up various efforts on energy strategy and seeks to gain control over crude resources through cooperation in crude development. Whether China’s action will have an impact on Taiwan’s control over crude resource is worthy of further evaluation.

中國自1993年後成為石油淨進口國，而伴隨經濟持續的高度成長，石油消費亦逐年增長，中國面臨威脅未來發展的資源短缺危機。而隨著國力的崛起，中國領導人、企業紛紛走向世界，融入國際體系，其中以中國石油產業的擴張最受矚目。本文擬從國家現實主義為出發點，探討中國在面臨石油安全威脅之際，所展現出的石油外交戰略與意圖，將全球產油區分為四大中國正進行佈局的戰略區，包括中東與北非、中亞和俄羅斯、東南亞與南海、南北美等四區，探討中國官方與企業的外交與商業作為，從中分析其在各區域及整體所面臨挑戰，進而研判中國石油外交未來發展方向。 / China has become an oil net importer since 1993. Because China’s economic growth is leaping continuously, its oil consumption has increased year by year. China’s development in the future is threatened by resources shortage as China rises, Chinese leaders and enterprises make efforts to integrate into international community. The expansion of Chinese oil industries especially draws the world’s attention. Based on national realism, this paper will discuss how China implements oil diplomacy and oil strategy to cope with its oil security threat by dividing main oil producing areas in the world into four regions, include Mideast and North Africa, central Asia and Russia, South Asia and South China Sea. Judging from the government’s diplomacy and the enterprises’ business activities, I will analyze challenges facing in each area and as a whole to find out the trend of China’s oil diplomacy in the future.

In 2003, China surpassed Japan to become the world’s second largest oil consumer (behind the United States), and the third largest oil importer (behind the United States and Japan). China’s huge demand for oil and its dependence on oil imports have forced the Chinese government continuously to adopt the energy expansion strategy in order to secure the country’s oil supply. The energy supply and reserves in Southeast Asian region are not the critical core area to supply China’s energy demand, but it is located in the periphery of China where it controls the transportation link of the Strait of Malacca, directly to hold a strategic point of the sea lane of communication for transporting oil to China. Under this scenario, China is proactively to carry out its energy diplomacy with ASEAN’s nations and to ensure completely an overall strategic arrangement in Southeast Asia so as to assure China’s oil security. In this thesis, it is mainly to probe into the following questions: the inquiring into China’s oil security strategy? Why China and how to readjust its relations with the nations in Southeast Asia? What is the driving factor? After China has become the oil importer, China has to face what kinds of challenges in oil transportation security? What is its intention of resolution projection? In terms of geographic shares, about 60% of the China’s oil import comes from the Middle East, passing through the highly insecure the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia that has taken the advantages to influence China’s oil sea transportation routes. Those issues will lay stress on the key points of breaking through the “Malacca Dilemma,” meet the China’s oil demand, sustain economic development, even consolidate the legitimacy of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, and conform to the national interests. / In 2003, China surpassed Japan to become the world’s second largest oil consumer (behind the United States), and the third largest oil importer (behind the United States and Japan). China’s huge demand for oil and its dependence on oil imports have forced the Chinese government continuously to adopt the energy expansion strategy in order to secure the country’s oil supply. The energy supply and reserves in Southeast Asian region are not the critical core area to supply China’s energy demand, but it is located in the periphery of China where it controls the transportation link of the Strait of Malacca, directly to hold a strategic point of the sea lane of communication for transporting oil to China. Under this scenario, China is proactively to carry out its energy diplomacy with ASEAN’s nations and to ensure completely an overall strategic arrangement in Southeast Asia so as to assure China’s oil security. In this thesis, it is mainly to probe into the following questions: the inquiring into China’s oil security strategy? Why China and how to readjust its relations with the nations in Southeast Asia? What is the driving factor? After China has become the oil importer, China has to face what kinds of challenges in oil transportation security? What is its intention of resolution projection? In terms of geographic shares, about 60% of the China’s oil import comes from the Middle East, passing through the highly insecure the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia that has taken the advantages to influence China’s oil sea transportation routes. Those issues will lay stress on the key points of breaking through the “Malacca Dilemma,” meet the China’s oil demand, sustain economic development, even consolidate the legitimacy of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, and conform to the national interests.

中共石油安全對外依存度升高，並制約著中共經濟與綜合國力的發展。隨著中國經濟高速成長，石油需求缺口持續擴大，石油供需嚴重失衡，造成中國的不安全感。而中國石油安全困境，具體體現在自給能力不足、進口來源和管道單一、供需不對稱等幾個面向。中亞國家之所以吸引中國，係因中國在中亞具有地緣優勢，且該地區石油是世界第三大石油蘊藏區，對還處在重大轉型期的中亞各國而言，國際力量紛紛介入，石油資源成為其對外發展的條件，也是應對當前全球化衝擊的必要選項。因此，石油安全將成為中國及中亞國家與大國間相互關係發展，最重要的決定因素。 中共在中亞地區的石油安全戰略，主要在彌補石油缺口，確保石油供應安全。本文旨在從「地緣政治學」的視角，分析探討中國及中亞的石油安全形勢、地緣政治、中共的石油安全戰略內涵、佈局與實踐及未來可能面臨的機遇與挑戰等議題。而中國在中亞的石油安全戰略，係以外交為手段，上海合作組織為平臺，輔以敦親睦鄰政策及地緣優勢，建立中國陸路石油供應路徑，期以分散石油供給集中並突破海上運油風險的制約。 中亞因其重要的地緣戰略位置和能源經濟價值以及政經情勢的複雜性，而成為歐亞大陸中心一個敏感地區。因此，中亞諸國採取門戶開放及平衡外交策略，造成世界各主要戰略力量進入，謀求現實的戰略利益。面對中國「走出去」與「多元化」的石油安全戰略，中亞國家與美俄大國競逐態勢，對區域及國際政經情勢的影響，值得關注。 / Beijing’s oil security gradually becomes dependent on foreign sources; this fact also constrains the development of Chinese economy and composite national power. As the Chinese economy grows fast, its need for oil intensifies as well. The oil supplies are unable to satisfy domestic demands, resulting in Beijing’s sense of insecurity. The oil security dilemma is manifested in several dimensions, such as insufficient domestic supplies, single import source and route, and insufficient total oil supplies. The reason why the Middle Asia countries attract China has geographical advantages in Middle Asia, where has the world’s third largest oil deposit. To these Middle-Asia countries which are during their major transformation period, oil resources become the basis of their outward development as well as a necessity to deal with the impact of globalization when international powers intervene. Therefore, oil security will determine the development of mutual relationships between China and Aiddle-Asia countries. Beijing’s oil security strategy on filling the gap in oil supplies and securing the oil supplies security. From "Geopolitions"aspects this thesis analyzes the oil secerity situation of China and Middle-Asia geopolitics, the intertions, deployment, practices future opportunities and challenges of China’s oil security strategy. With diplomacy as manenver Shanghai Cooperation Organization as platform Bejjing’s oil security strategy in Middle-Asia, accompanied by hospitality policies and geographical advantages, untents to establish an oil supply route by land. All of these approaches are to break through the concentration of oil supplies and the constraints and risks of maritime oil route. Due to its critical geostrategic status, energy values, and complication of political and economical situation Middle-Asia becomes a sensitive area in the Eurasian continent. Thus, the Middle-Asia countries adopt open and balance diplomacy, letting major powers enter this area in order to seek for realistic interests, Under the circumstances of Beijing’s "Outward" and "Diverse" oil security strategy, the competition between Middle-Asia counteies, U.S. and Russia, and the impacts of this competition on regional and international political and economical situation, are certainly worthy of attention.

自1993年起，中國從石油淨出口國成為石油淨進口國，1996年成為原油淨進口國，2003年中國超過日本成為世界第二大石油消費國，目前中國是世界第三大石油進口國。中國對於石油這項戰略物資具有高度敏感性，繼1993年撤銷能源部後，於2008年成立國家能源局由國家發展和改革委員會管理，足見中國對於能源事務的再度重視。隨著世界經濟實力與軍事勢力的變化，新的世界能源地緣政治正在逐漸形成。美國感受到中國因經濟發展帶動對石油的龐大需求後，在美國國內出現「中國石油威脅論」的說法，認為以中國的經濟發展程度而言，其石油需求量在將來可能跟一個美國一樣或是超越美國所需的量，而目前世界石油儲量及開採速度已不能承受另一個美國的出現。中國的石油安全戰略不只與中國國內事務相關，更與國際間各個石油生產國、進口國有莫大的關係。其中，因為美國早已在世界擁有許多油田並與世界主要產油國建設良好關係等因素，以美國為中心的世界形勢對中國積極推行的石油外交不利，可能成為中國「走出去」戰略的阻礙。本論文將對中國的石油安全戰略的落實問題進行檢驗，觀察中國與各國在石油方面的探勘、投資及技術合作等，其中以美國的參與作為主要研究重點，檢視中美在石油領域的競爭行為是否影響中國國家利益，並評估兩國在獲取石油或尋找替代能源上的合作可能性。

自1978年中國改革開放30年以來，隨著經濟的持續快速發展，中國對石油需求度與日俱增，自1993年起從石油淨出口國變成了石油淨進口國，尤其以2004年中國的石油進口量超過日本成為僅次於美國的全球第二大能源消費國，石油是中國經濟及工業的命脈，對國內經濟發展更具有重要的意義。國際經濟強國將石油安全列為外交工作的重點，透過石油外交途逕取得在國際石油能源資源配置中的經濟和政治利益及主導地位，以滿足國內工業需求並提高經濟增長。對中國石油需求量急劇增加下，加上國際政治經濟形勢的錯綜複雜，更加重了中國對石油進口穩定供給的需求，為確保石油能源安全，中國更加積極地實施能源進口多元化戰略，除了從中東、東南亞、中亞、俄羅斯等地進口石油外，非洲的石油儲量豐富也成了中國石油開發新地區，非洲產油國蘇丹更是中國石油外交「走出去」的典範，本文從中國、蘇丹的石油、外交、政策探討中國的石油外交走向。 / Since 1978, 30 years since China's reform and opening up, with sustained and rapid economic development, China's oil demand was increasing since 1993 from a net oil exporter into a net importer of oil, particularly in 2004, China's oil imports after the United States surpassed Japan to become the world's second largest energy consumer, and industrial oil is the lifeblood of the modern economy, China's economic development is more important. Regarded the world's largest economy oil energy as the focus of diplomatic work and hope to obtain through oil diplomacy in the international oil and energy resources in the economic and political interests and dominant position in order to meet domestic industrial demand and increase economic growth. Since the execution of reformation in 1978,Chinas economy has been soaring and so has its demand of oil.IN 1993,China changed from a net oil exporter to a net importer of oil.particularly in 2004,China imported oil more than japan so china which is after America has already become the second largest energy resources consumer in the world.Oil is the lifeblood of industries and modern economy and it has more important meaning for the economic development of China.Strong countries in the world consider oil energy as a key of diplomatic work.They hope t could dominant the main position and get economic and political benefits of international oil resources through oil diplomacy for satisfying the demand of domestic industries and increasing economic growth.