第一章 緒論－說明研究中共石油工業之動機和目的及研究方法。 第二章 中共石油的蘊藏量及油區、油礦之分析。 第三章 中共石油的生產量和消費量之評估及其對外輸出入能力的剖析。 第四章 中共海底油田開發現況，及其因而引起的東亞各國，尤其是與中華民國， 大韓民國的海洋問題分析。 第五章 中共對外石油輸出的目的之研究，及日本與中共之間石油外交的效果評估 。 第六章 結論－中共石油工業發展上的幾個問題及其未來的展望。 #2810474 #2810474

In recent years, Canada has increased its significance in the global oil market. The Albertan oil sands, along with the recent oil price hike have allowed companies to begin to exploit this potential. Hitherto, there has been little actual change in terms of Canada’s apparent energy plan or in its actual oil trading partners. As Zweig (2005) mentioned the oil sands are a potential sticking point for Canada. America deems Canada, and especially the oil sands projects, an essential key to their energy security; while China is scanning the globe looking for new energy partners. Based on supply and demand Canada seems a logical fit, however, basic economics and politics do not always mix, as it appears that Canada itself is lacking a clear energy plan for their own future. This paper will look at the opportunities for greater Canada China oil trade, and at the concerns arising from this in a customized structural realism framework as Canada needs to strengthen its national nergy plan, to focus attention on its own citizens, companies and the environment.

本文採取文獻分析法為主，並以戰略邏輯與國際事務為出發點，從海權觀念意識與國家發展思維上去探討，再以目的、手段、方法之研究途徑切入。 研究重點首重中共在印度洋戰略之思維，從周邊地緣分析切入，瞭解東亞、南亞地區地緣戰略關係；再分析中共國家戰略需求（以能源安全為主），及中共海軍戰略進程，包含劉華清走出第一島鏈的三階段海軍戰略，也就是藍水海軍戰略。 其次為中共印度洋戰略之角色與實踐，主要圍繞中共在印度洋戰略布局的手段，包含政治、經貿及軍事手段之實踐作為，並探討其戰略意涵。 第三，探討中共印度洋戰略之影響與限制因素，分別為區域安全之影響（南亞地區）、大國之影響（美、蘇、日）及對中共自身之影響。可以預見的，印度與美國對中共在印度洋的活動非最敏感，日印美聯合制中之傳聞早已甚囂塵上，各國之反應對中共後續之布局產生哪些具體滯礙與限制。 最後為研究心得，計有中共海軍戰略進程、中共印度洋戰略布局的過程及中共戰略布局印度洋後的影響與限制等三點。 / The research is to adopt Document analysis, use strategic logic and international affairs as a starting point, and discusses the concept of consciousness from the sea power with the thinking of national development, then the purpose, means, methods, ways to cut into the study. First of all, the most important point of this research is focus on the PRC’s strategy thinking in the Indian ocean, from the surrounding geographical metrology to understand East Asia, South Asia’s geo-strategic relationships and then analysis PRC’s national strategic needs (Focus on the energy security), and the PRC’s maritime strategic process, including Liu’s three-stage maritime strategy which is out of the first island chain, also means Blue-water Navy. Secondly, the PRC’s role and practice in the Indian Ocean mainly focus on the strategic layout, including political, economic and military methods, and explore its strategic implications. Third, Regarding the influences and constraints of PRC’s strategy in the Indian Ocean are the regional security (South Asia), the influences of powerful nations (USA, USSR, and Japan) and the influences to itself. It is can be expected, India and U.S.A are very sensitive of all the activities of China in Indian Ocean. The rumor of that Japan, U.S.A and India are standing on the same side to against China had already spread, what will China respond and what kind of difficulty they will face. The last part of this research comprises the process of PRC’s maritime strategy, the strategic layout in the Indian Ocean and the influences and restrictions after PRC’s strategy in the Indian Ocean.

在1993年中國成為石油淨進口國後，年消費量不斷擴大，產量卻無法大幅提升，石油供給不足的缺口正逐步擴大，且依國際能源總署評估，中國將是未來世界能源爭奪上的關鍵國家。 能源因素從1993年以來逐步地成為中國外交方面的思考。中國在處理外交事務越來越重視能源問題。在21世紀的石油價格不斷提升的趨勢對中國經濟造成相當大的衝擊，一旦能源供應短缺，享受經濟快速發展的中國面將臨極大的危險。另外在軍事力量加強的同時中國需要建立石油儲備來因應軍事行動之所需。 從外交戰略而言，中國處於亞洲中心，東接太平洋，西與中亞產油地區接壤，南出巴基斯坦，具備非常有利的地緣戰略優勢。中國需藉助有利的地緣戰略位置，在不流血的「石油戰爭」中儘早規劃以為因應，方不致遭受其它國家的戰略的箝制。 因此，本論文的研究目的在於以1993年至2006年能源因素影響中國外交政策和計劃的追蹤資料，搭配政治分析法， 探討以下問題： 一，分析預測將來中國能源方面的需求趨勢；二，探究能源需求促使中國政府採取何種外交手段。三，在中國外交決策中能源因素扮演何種的決定因素。 / Since 1993, China has become an importer of oil; the oil consumption has been growing. At the same time, China couldn’t increase the oil production, as the result, the lack of oil supplying has continuously increased. If we analyze from the point of international resource consumption, China comes to be the key country between those, who will struggle for the energy resources in the future. Since 1993, energy factor has been implemented to the consideration in the Chinese diplomacy. China has started to pay more and more attention to the energy factor while dealing with its international affairs. In 21 century, the oil price has been increasingly rising, that has become a serious danger for Chinese economy. The sudden lack of energy resources will be the great threat for fast developing Chinese economy. Also, been increasing its military power, China needs to create strategic oil stocks in order to move effectively its military forces. If we consider from strategic point of view, China is in the center of Asia, with Pacific Ocean on its East Coast, bordering with Pakistan on the South, China has very favorable geographical strategic advantages. China needs to use its strategic position for early planning strategy in its “non-blood war” for oil resources. Otherwise, China will face containment from the other countries. The purpose of this study is thus to investigate the following issues based upon the date for the influence of energy factor on Chinese foreign policy and intentions during the period of 1993-2006: 1.Understanding the trends for the future growth of energy demand in China. 2.Investigating what kind of measures can be applying by Chinese government in the face of these trends. 3.Figuring out how big the role of energy factor in the Chinese foreign policy implementation.

本文旨在透過地緣政治途徑研究□海地區因石油資源豐富而興起的爭霸戰，以瞭解□海沿岸五國（俄羅斯、伊朗、哈薩克斯坦、土庫曼斯坦、阿塞拜然）與其他非□海沿岸國家為取得資源而有的開發、運輸、國際秩序等問題。本論文將探討1992至2000年間，□海地區的石油資源爭霸戰。 本論文認為：蘇聯解體後，□海地區成為國際政治互動的熱點；□海地區豐富的石油資源不僅極具經濟價值，□海地區的地緣地位更具戰略價值；因此，□海地區的石油爭霸戰之所以越演越烈、越形複雜，乃是因為它牽動了該地區的國際政治勢力消長問題：從而可以斷言，□海地區石油爭霸戰的動因乃是該地區的地緣戰略利益以及石油資源經濟利益，而其爭執的主要關鍵問題在於□海的歸屬權以及運輸油管的建造。此一假設命題可再引伸為下列邏輯相關子命題： （一）蘇聯解體後，□海地區成為國際政治互動熱點。 （二）□海地區豐富的石油資源不僅極具經濟價值，□海地區的地緣地位更具戰略價值；因此，□海地區的石油爭霸戰牽動了該地區的國際政治勢力消長問題，而使該地區的情勢更形複雜。 （三）□海地區的石油爭霸戰的動因乃是該地區的地緣戰略利益以及石油資源經濟利益，因而牽動的不僅是□海地區的國家，連若干非□海地區的強權或組織－美國、中國、北約也涉入其中。 （四）各國在□海地區爭執的關鍵問題有二：一為□海的歸屬權爭議；另一則為油管管線運輸問題。 上述四命題構成本文核心論點；而對應此四個論點，本論文將分六章探討。第一章為緒論，說明研究動機與目的、假設命題與研究架構、文獻述評與研究途徑。第二章：□海地區霸權爭霸戰。本章將探討俄國、美國、伊朗、土耳其、中國等在此區相互爭戰的情形。第三章：□海的歸屬權爭議。此章將探討目前□海歸屬權的爭議。第四章：油管管線運輸問題。本章將介紹目前現有的油管以及籌畫中的油管路線。第五章：結論。總結整個論文之重點及研究之結果。 / The purpose of this research project has been to study with the use of geopolitics way to understand the dispute of oil of development, carriage and international order problems in the Caspian Sea Region（including Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan）. The proposition of this thesis is that after the decomposition of Soviet Union, the Caspian becomes international political focus. The rich oil reserves is not only involving economical interest, the geopolitical location of the Caspian Sea Region is but also engaging these states in strategical advantage. Accordingly, the dispute of oil in the Caspian Sea Region is getting more and more serious because of the changing of international politics force. And the major problems are the right of the Caspian Sea and the oil pipelines of construction. The proposition comprises the contention of this paper, and it will be discussed in six chapters. The first chapter is exordium. The second chapter is the haggle in the Caspian Sea Region. The third chapter is the dispute of the right of the Caspian Sea. The fourth chapter is the construction of the oil pipelines. And the last chapter is the conclusion.

Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第16814号 / 工博第3535号 / 新制||工||1534(附属図書館) / 29489 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 松岡 俊文, 教授 垣内 隆, 教授 大津 宏康 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第21521号 / 経博第589号 / 新制||経||288(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 若林 靖永, 教授 田中 彰, 教授 塩地 洋 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DFAM

中國大陸隨著經濟快速發展，石油能源需求成長迅速，導致石油進口依賴增加，石油需求量日益大於國內原油產量，對進口原油的依賴成為中國國家安全的潛在威脅。為鞏固石油安全，除需不斷向外擴張石油的來源管道外，更需儘速調整國內能源消費結構，提昇能源使用效率。本文以石油安全的政治經濟途徑來看中國對外石油政策，探討影響中國石油安全的因素。分析究竟是「由外而內」(outside-in)，還是「由內而外」(inside-out)層面的因素制約了中國對外石油政策的走向。本文認為，依賴國外石油供應本身並不會造成中國石油安全的威脅，主要的威脅來自於對日益增長的能源消費缺乏明顯改善能源效率的機制。長期而言，改善國內能源治理才是一種有效的而且是徹底改善中國能源安全處境的根本途徑。基於這種觀點，中國必須更廣泛的，儘可能的善加利用各種國際資源，來提升國內能源使用效率。從戰略層次來看，其他各國也會受益於中國的努力。 / Mainland China's rapid economic development has brought rapid growth in oil energy demand, that has outstripped domestic sources of supply, causing increased reliance on oil imports. China's reliance on oil imports to satisfy its oil requirements has become the potential threat to the national security. In order to secure its oil security, mainland China need to constantly expand external oil energy sources. Besides, there is even greater need to speedily adjust the domestic energy consumption structure and utilising energy efficiently within china. This paper focuses on the Chinese foreign oil policy based on the political-economic approaches to oil security. The research problem of this paper is : What's the real factor that "constraint" Chinese foreign oil policy, "outside-in" or "inside-out"? The conclusion of this paper is that dependence on foreign sources of oil supply is not in itself a threat to China's oil security; the key threat is ever-growing consumption without significant improvement in erergy efficiency. In the long term, improved domestic energy governance is one effective and indeed essential route for China to improve its overall energy situation. In this concection, China must work to make as extensive use of international resources as possible for the sake of promoting more efficient use of energy in the country. At a strategic level, the rest of the world stands to benefit from progress in Chinese efforts.

國際能源機構(IEA)每個月的石油報告已經變成預測世界石油供給與需求一個很重要的資源。因此，我們蒐集從1990年10月到2005年12月中國際能源機構所發佈的179次宣告，利用事件研究法來衡量國際能源機構對石油相關市場的影響性。 實證結果顯示，國際能源機構的石油報告的確對石油相關市場傳達重要的資訊；而國際能源機構報告的影響效果似乎會隨著國家的不同而有所不同；在當中，石油的生產和消費量多寡、石油的密集度和油價中稅占的比例都扮演重要的角色；此外，在國際能源機構的報告中，關於預測石油需求變化這方面似乎特別被大家所重視。 / This study examines the impact of International Energy Agency's Oil Market Reports on oil-related prices. The IEA reports, published monthly in Paris, have become the primary source of world oil supply and demand forecasts. We collect 179 announcements that released by IEA over the period October 1990 to December 2005. We analyze the effects of these reports on three oil-related markets, IPE Brent Crude futures, oil industry indices and stock prices of oil companies in six countries. Moreover, we separate the effects of IEA’s forecast changes on oil supply from non-OPEC countries and oil demand from North America and China in IEA’s report. The results confirm that IEA’s reports carry important information source for oil-related markets because more than one half of our sample companies have abnormal returns around the announcement date of IEA’s reports, and we explore these prices respond negatively to the release of IEA’s reports. We also find that the actively traded IPE Brent Crude futures contracts are affected by IEA’s reports, particularly for the change of demand in North America. Forecast changes in IEA’s reports regarding supply in non-OPEC countries, demand in North America and China show that most countries are affected by the changes in these reports. The evidences also show that British and Norwegian oil stock markets react more strongly to the change of oil demand in North America and China. Moreover, we find that participants in the oil market put more emphasis on demand changes reported by IEA, especially for China demand. And we provides empirical evidence that these companies are concerned more about the related releases of decreased demand in North America and increased demand in China. Finally, cross-sectional analysis of cumulative abnormal returns suggests that the reaction of American and Norwegian companies to IEA’s announcements is stronger than other countries, and the change of demand in North America and China and the size variable for individual company contribute to the changes of abnormal returns around IEA’s reports.

隨著中共經濟蓬勃發展，對石油需求急遽增加，迄2014年底石油對外依存度已超過60%，石油已成為制約中共發展的重要因素；如何在經濟發展中維持穩定的石油供應來源、提高石油使用效率、優化能源結構及強化石油戰略儲備，均為中共石油戰略規劃的重要考量。其中，中共石油戰略係以「走出去」為核心戰略規劃，並透過發展政治、外交、軍事及經濟等外交，推動與國際政經情勢密不可分的油氣合作，積極開發多元化管道油源、分散對外石油運輸管道，以保障石油供應安全；此舉不但牽動國際強權石油競合關係，更進一步重組全球油氣結構；另一方面，中共石油外交作為衝擊美、日等強權在產油國之利益。此外，各油產國如中東、非洲及中亞地區，各自因內部政經、族群及宗教等情勢動盪，對中共石油外交作為形成諸多挑戰；故此，本論文係從中共地緣戰略考量為出發點，探討中共面臨詭譎多變的國際情勢下，如何在中東、非洲、中亞等油產區推動油氣合作及外交，並兼論與俄羅斯的油氣合作關係；而近年來中共發展「一帶一路」戰略規劃，加速周邊油氣外交，並將發展重心轉移至歐亞地區，在東亞地區形成中國與俄羅斯及美、日兩大勢力抗衡，亦改變了國際石油版圖。 / Along with China’s rapid growth of economic development, its demand for oil has dramatically risen up. As of 2014, China’s oil import dependency ratio has exceeded 60%, indicating oil has already become a critical ingredient in China’s development. How to maintain stable oil supply, increase the efficiency of oil consumption, improve the energy structure, and enhance the oil strategic reserve are among China’s key considerations on oil strategic planning. China’s oil strategy centers on “going globally,” pushing forward the oil-gas cooperation overseas by developing political, diplomatic, military and economic relationships. To safeguard the security of its oil supply, China has proactively exploited multiple oil resources and constructed various oil transportation channels. China’s behavior not only poses impact on the competition and collaboration among powerful nations but also reshapes the global oil-gas structure; on the other hand, China’s “oil diplomacy” has also threatened the interests among great powers, such as the United States and Japan in oil producing areas. Furthermore, the domestic political, economic, ethnic and religious turmoil in oil producing areas, such as the Middle-East, Africa and Central Asia, also poses tremendous challenges to China’s oil diplomatic strategy. Therefore, with China’s geographic strategy in mind, the thesis investigates how China promotes oil-gas diplomacy and cooperation with those oil producing countries under such a capricious international environment. In addition, the thesis also probes into the Sino-Russia oil collaboration relation. In recent years, China has developed “One Belt and One Road” strategy, which expedites peripheral oil-gas diplomacy and switches its emphasis to Eurasia area. In East Asia, China and Russia’s oil cooperation has formed a new camp, which takes on the U.S. and Japan’s collaboration and also changes the distribution of the global energy power.