本論文運用Box-Jenkins 隨機時間序列模式與Winters 趨勢季節平滑模式，進行廿一 縣市液化石油氣需求預測，依模式之配合度、穩定度及預測能力予以評估上述兩種模 式之優缺點，并探討各模式於運用時之限制，以供企業界與學者運用此兩種模式之參 考。 本論文共壹冊，約為五萬餘字，分為八章，茲分述如下： 第一章：闡述研究之動機目的與方法。第二章；介紹Box-Jenkins 模型之理論與建立 方法。第三章：介紹指數平滑法之發展、種類及模式之建立方法。第四章：探討良好 預測模式所應具備之條件，以為評估之標準。第五章：運用Box-Jenkins 模式進行液 化石油氣需求模式之進立與預測。第六章：運用Winters 趨勢季節平滑模式從事液化 石油氣需求預測。第七章：比較前述兩章預測之結果。第八章：結論與建議。

主要探討液化石油氣採用配管方式供氣和維持現行方式供氣兩者之間成本效益的差異 ，從而引申出適當的建議，以作為國內統銷液化石油氣之管理當局的參考，玆將本文 內容扼要說明如下： 第一章共分為四節，闡釋本文的研究動機與目的、及研究的範圍、研究的架構、和研 究的方法與限制。第二章共有三節，分別說明液化石油氣產業的現況，發掘其中的問 題，和討論本文的研究方向。第三章共含六節，說明成本效益分析的定義、觀念和目 的，而且分別探討成本效益分析的程序面、要素面、技術面和成本面，及說明動態的 成本效益分析之意義。第四章分為兩節，說明液化石油氣的特性和配管的程序，以瞭 解配管系統的構成要件。第五章共有七節，說明及計算配管供氣制度和維持現行制度 兩者所發生的成本和效益，而得出在固定國家效益下最低成本的方案。第六章含兩節 ，為針對研究所得，提出適切的結論和建議。

An analysis of the Russian factor in China’s energy policy in Central Asia shows that the importance of energy abundant region Central Asia is getting increased as the world oil demand goes up and the instability in the Middle East gets into a more serious position. As the second largest consumer of energy, China is getting more interested in this region. China’s reluctance to become excessively tied to the Middle East as a source of oil also is another reason that turns China’s face to Central Asia. Not being the only one who is starving for energy makes China to face with other great states (Russia and the US) who has the common interests with China in the region. Therefore, in order to understand China’s energy policy in Central Asia, one has to consider about the policies of other great states in the region. This study focuses on Russian factor in China’s energy policy in Central Asia. There is no doubt that, Russia’s policy in the region has a great effect in China’s every tactic in the region, but today’s one supreme power has an enormous effect on both of the states in the region. The main conclusion of the analysis is that Sino-Russia relations are likely to be more cooperative than competitive. Russia, with its abundant energy resources, is a very good partner that China can get into an energy-trade relationship with. They both are against the US influence in the region. Sino-Russian relations are likely to remain stable in the short and medium term, based on a convergence of interests. The happy state of the relationship may end in the longer term when both side dont need eachother in economic terms. China-US and US -Russia relations are more competitive than cooperative. So there is a big struggle for energy among these three great states. Energy rich Central Asian states’ -Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan- more pragmatic policies make these trilateral relations more complex.

中共改革開放後，經濟快速發展，能源需求高漲。自 1993 年成為石油淨進口國，石油消費量不斷擴大，產量卻無法大幅提升，石油供給不足的缺口正逐步擴大，對進口原油的依賴成為中共國家安全的潛在威脅。因此中共試圖以國有石油企業「走出去」到海外投資的能源外交政策，以達成供應安全、油源多元化目標。 本文以政治經濟途徑分析中共能源外交政策的發展，探討中共政府如何形成側重能源供應面的石油戰略，何以藉由國有石油企業海外投資做為政策工具，而發展出來的能源外交政策。如何推動能源外交政策以保證石油供應安全？中共能源外交活動究竟取得什麼樣的成果？又將面臨多大的挑戰？透過這幾個研究問題的驗證，本文認為中共能源外交活動以國家安全為主軸，以政府力量扶持三大石油企業海外投資活動，在某種程度上是代表國家力量的擴張，儼然成為國際能源體系不安全的因素，導致無法確保石油供應安全。未來中共能源安全策略雖仍以國家安全、經濟民族主義為基調，但可預見中共將更加積極參與國際能源貿易活動與國際能源組織，建構具有中國特色的能源外交政策。 關 鍵 詞：能源、能源安全、石油安全、中共外交、能源外交 英文關鍵詞：Energy, Energy Security, Oil Security, China's Foreign Policy , Energy Foreign Policy

中國的石油外交安全複合體系可分為海上運輸航線、歐亞能源陸橋以及全球經營三大面向。由於目前中國進口石油來源主要來自中東及非洲地區，並依賴印度洋通往國內東南沿海的海上運輸航線，基於分散運輸風險與進口地區多元化的考量，增進對東協關係以促成海路運輸安全、向陸地接鄰的俄羅斯與中亞國家發展能源陸橋、兼顧海陸進口路線平衡發展之佈局，以及積極於中東、非洲、拉丁美洲地區發展經貿與能源合作並進關係，將為中國建構石油安全複合體系必然的策略選擇。複合體系行為主體是運用石油公司、國家政策及區域組織外交三個層次相結合，發展區域經濟論壇、軍售與外交支持等全般作為以鞏固對產油國安全利益依存關係，即使面臨體系內美國與日本競爭石油資源，但是中國提供其他合作選項，使產油國得以增加出口選擇，因此牽制力量的存在反而有助於強化體系運作，預期與美國爭奪地緣關鍵國家合作關係將是今後中國開展石油外交的重點。 / China’s oil diplomacy security complex is divided into three aspects： Sea lines of communication, Eurasia energy bridge, and Global cooperation. Middle East and Africa are now the main areas for China’s imported petroleum, and their production are transported through Indian Ocean to the southeast China coast. China’s strategies to build oil diplomacy security complex on account of diversification of importing sources are to protect Sea lines of communication by promoting Sino-ASEAN relations, to construct energy bridge from Russia and Central Asia in order to poise the marine and continental route of imported petroleum, as well as to develop business and energy cooperation with Middle East, Africa and Latin America .There are three characteristics of the security complex: first , members that compose oil companies, countries and regional organizations ; second , interdependence that China fosters with oil-exported countries in regional economic forum , arm sales and diplomatic support , and the existence of opponents such as the United States and Japan that strengthens the security complex by relieving China’s alternative value. In conclusion, China provides other alternatives for oil-exporting countries and strengthen the regional security complex; thus to obtain cooperation opportunities with key countries in the Geopolitical field from the U.S. would be the priority in China’s oil diplomacy policy.

本文要旨在回答中國大陸的能源戰略是如何形成，並探討此一戰略如何影響中國大陸的石油安全。本文主從歷史制度主義的觀點主張中國能源體制是決定中國的石油戰略最重要的因素。解釋中國的能源部門在經濟改革與國際化的內、外部環境下，產生制度變遷，進而形成不同時期的石油戰略。在回答中國大陸日益龐大的石油需求與進口石油依賴，使得政府制訂出提升能源使用效率、節約能源、能源多元化與確保海外石油供應 但由於中國為保護國有石油企業的壟斷角色，對於「迎進來」的市場進入條件設下許多條件限制，對外又採取積極的石油外交，使得國際社會對中國產生重商主義與保護主義的疑慮。 中國的能源部門自1980年以來已經歷幾個階段的改革，第一階段是從1982年至1987年，強調要計畫經濟為主、市場力量為輔的能源制度改革；第二階段是從1988至1992年，重點在於國有企業的改革，鼓勵國有企業集團化；第三階段是從1993至1997年，重點在政企分離，並把配置資源的基礎性職能轉移給市場；第四階段是從1998至2002年，重點在加強國有資產的監管與國有企業經營，並初步建立宏觀能源調控體系；第五階段則是自2003年以降，主要的改革目標在建立跨部門的能源協調機制與對外的競爭力。 本文但由於「漸進主義」式的制度變遷使得能源部門體制改革仍存在許多問題，諸如能源部門分散、能源監管部門眾多、國家安全思維與既得利益等，使得政府部門考量其能源安全時，政府干預仍多於市場思維，即便自改革開放以來國家能力已不斷衰退。但在能源辦與發改委能源局的人力有限以及能源部門缺乏效率的情形下，擁有龐大資源的三大國有石油企業（中石油、中石化、中海油）無疑「挾持」政府的決策，例如理論上中央政府可完全控制與審核國有企業的海外投資，但實際國有企業通常是在海外投案案定局後才通知發改委與國務院。中國的能源決策中的缺乏效率常來自於既得利益者的把持，而不願在整體的政治與經濟政策上肩負起更多的政策責任，例如中央政府與國企對於戰備儲油到底由誰出資的內部爭論。 未來中國的能源戰略會持續採取「迎進來、走出去」的方向；近年來政府試圖改革其能源決策程序，透過建立跨部會的決策協調機制試圖重奪能源決策的主導性，因此於2005年5月正式成立「能源領導小組」，並積極透入政府能源白皮書與能源相關法案的草擬，政府的舉動等於是將能源政策的制訂再度「中央化」。未來中國能源戰略的最大挑戰仍來自於能源體制能否深化改革，並且制訂出對外、對內策略一致的能源戰略，以因應中國未來的石油需求以及消減國際社會的疑慮。 / The new facet of global oil politics and China’s surging oil demand have forced the Chinese government and state-owned enterprises to secure foreign oil supplies and to implement energy efficiency. However, systemic level or state-centered theories have provided limited theoretic orientation to explain China’s state behaviors and foreign behavior. It is essential to explore China’s energy institution and energy strategy behind its quest for oil security. That is, China’s foreign strategy should be put into broader context of China’s institutional evolution and domestic/foreign energy policy-making process. This research applies historical institutionalism to look at history evolution of China’s energy institution and energy strategy (especially oil strategy). Chinese energy institution has experienced four main stages of institutional evolution since 1980s. The main themes of four stages have emphasized different administrative, institutional, and energy goals. Meanwhile, institutional critical junctures and feedbacks (formation and reproduction) also have existed in every stage. The first phrase (1980-1992) emphasized how to integrate market forces into China’s bureaucratic institution with socialist characteristics and the market oriented reforms faced several institutional challenges due to necessity of central planning; the second phrase (1993-1997) was characterized by slight and limited institutional restructuring within the energy sector because market force did not gain political support from the leadership. The Chinese government established both the State Energy Commission (SEC) (1980-82) and the Ministry of Energy (MOE) (1988-93) in the wake of acute energy shortages to re-centralize authority over the energy sector. However, neither institution could effectively coordinate and implement energy policy, partly because they could not overcome the vested interests in sectional industries. The third phrase (1998-2002) was characterized by radical institutional reforms on conglomerating SOEs and delimiting administrative power. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) along with the Energy Bureau within it have taken over full governmental regulatory and public sector responsibility from SOEs. However, NDRC functions not as powerful as SOEs do. Therefore, the fourth phrase (2003 until now) then put attention on the establishment of a super-ministerial interagency, revivification of administrative power, and emphasis of foreign competitiveness. The establishment of State Energy Leading Group (SELG) aims at regaining strong central authority and to correcting turbulent oil strategies made on a base of institutional constraints. Above all, China’s institutional evolution is characteristic of state-regulated marketization, limited property right reforms, strategic preference, and departmentalism in China’s energy sector since 1980s. The institutional evolution has constrained China’s energy institution from planning a long-term national energy strategy. China’s energy sector continuously confirms institutional formation by the support of highest leadership and mainstream ideology, and confirms institutional reproduction between the directive and liberal forces, between the government and market forces. Meanwhile, international responses to China’s hunting behaviors are to play either a conductive role in impelling China’s institutional reforms and in adjusting its foreign behaviors. To prevent serious energy competition and to enhance international cooperation, China has shown its willingness to communicate with other nations on oil issues. However, China also needs to show its determination to implement domestic demand-side measures and a market approach instead of implementing protectionist “welcome-in” and aggressive “going out” policies. Ongoing institutional reforms still determines whether the China’s energy institution will ensure the country’s energy security. In the short term, the establishment of the central authority in the energy sector will improve departmental coordination and policy persistance. However, in the long term, China’s ongoing institional reforms need to integrate more market forces, proceed property right reforms, and reshape relationship between the government and market. Without deeper institutional reforms, energy bureaucrats and SOEs would be dragged into institutional process of formation and reproduction but gain limited results in meeting China’s oil security.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(人間・環境学) / 甲第24114号 / 人博第1051号 / 新制||人||246(附属図書館) / 2022||人博||1051(吉田南総合図書館) / 京都大学大学院人間・環境学研究科共生文明学専攻 / (主査)准教授 齋藤 嘉臣, 教授 森口 由香, 准教授 徳永 悠, 准教授 楠 綾子 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Human and Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DGAM

本研究題目為「公營事業民營化與就業安全之保障∼以中國石油公司為研究對象」。內容安排：第一章緒論所提為本研究之研究背景、研究目的、研究內容、研究方向與研究範圍與限制。第二章為公營事業民營化之探討，以市場經濟觀點論公營事業民營化，對公營事業民營化做分析。也討論工會對民營化之看法，由工會對民營化之影響力及對民營化之主張、中國石油公司民營化前之措施意見，進而討論第三條路的公營事業民營化，對知識經濟，終生學習與政府提供照顧作一說明。第三章民營化員工之就業安全，在介紹就業安全之三大支柱及實施方式。同時，對國外、內成功、失敗案例介紹。以及對員工就業安全職業能力開發內容作介紹。第四章以中國石油公司為案例，探討中國石油公司在民營化前準備進行民營化之措施和對員工就業安全所採取之決策，以及員工與工會所認為應加強之措施說明。第五章本研究之結論認為公營事業民營化執行之目的在發揮市場機能、提昇事業經營效率。但是，若不實施民營化也可達成前二目的，只要政府給予真正分層授權負責，落實自由化、市場機能之實質目標。建議政府對公營事業民營化員工就業安全之保障要依法落實推動，員工才不會反對民營化，民營化目標才能達成。

冷戰結束後，以往來自敵國或他國以軍事、政治和外交等面向，對國家安全（national security）及人類生存構成影響的「傳統安全」（Traditional Security）威脅因素，已隨著全球化帶來的效應產生轉變，全球面臨非傳統安全（Non-Traditional Security）的挑戰，包括經濟安全、金融安全、環境安全、能源安全、文化安全等威脅均大幅上升，其中能源是工業建設、經濟活動與國家發展不可或缺的戰略資源，是國家發展環節中最要要的關鍵，而石油即將耗竭也是全球將面臨的嚴重課題，近百年來因爭奪石油引發多次的區域衝突，並擴散成為全球的能源危機，石油已成為影響國家安全的最直接戰略威脅。 1970年代的能源危機使美國警覺石油的重要戰略地位，長期以來透過其國際強權的地位，積極對全球主要的石油生產區採取戰略佈局；1970年代後期起，中國的改革獲得耀眼的成效，經濟的成長帶動能源的龐大需求，1993年中國更成為石油淨進口國。中國逐漸正視到石油將是關係未來經濟持續成長的關鍵，於是挾以經濟、外交、政治等手段向中東、中亞、拉丁美洲乃至於非洲積極佈局展開油源開發觸角，引發西方國家對「中國能源威脅論」之隱憂。 石油已經成為維繫國家穩定發展的重要因素，石油安全既是經濟問題，更是政治問題、國家安全的核心。因此，爭奪石油成為地區衝突的導火線，隨著中國經濟崛起後政經力量的茁壯，中國透過各種手段在主要產油國甚至美國國內相關企業著力日深，已對美國的利益產生嚴重威脅，中、美都在極力的爭取石油主導權，希望透過石油的控制力量，從而獲得對全球經濟的操控能力。 石油安全往往牽動國際政治問題，愈發凸顯石油在國家安全戰略地位的重要性。長期仰賴石油進口，對我國國家安全容易受國際局勢影響，中美雙方在各種國際活動中，因石油產生的競合關係，恐令我國隨中美的互動關係產生轉變，因此對中美在石油安全競合的過程中，其雙方的發展與效應及對我國國家安全的影響，值得我們加以觀察與探討。

位於歐亞大陸中心的中亞國家，在蘇聯解體後重新回到世界政治舞台，因所處的敏感地理位置及擁有豐富能源優勢，地緣戰略的重要性格外突顯。中亞國家目前尚處於重大轉型期，油氣資源為其對外發展及穩定內部的有利憑藉，該區域各國莫不積極運用天賦條件，期在大國競逐及全球化衝擊中，有效獲取國家利益。 中國因經濟快速成長，進口石油的依賴程度不斷攀升，制約其經濟與綜合國力的發展，並對國家安全形成威脅。面臨石油安全困境，中國站在全球能源領域的制高點，積極拓展油源，緊鄰的中亞地區石油蘊藏豐富，成為中國強化能源合作關係，以維護來源穩定的首要選擇。 本文從「地緣戰略」的觀點，分析中國及中亞的地緣政治及石油安全形勢，並探討中國在該地區能源外交內涵、佈局與實踐，以及所面臨的機遇與挑戰等議題。綜觀之，中國對中亞的石油整體戰略佈局，係以外交為後盾，國營石油企業為主軸，上海合作組織為平台，雙邊及多邊型式並進，藉由地緣優勢建構中亞和諧地區，並透過籌建中國陸路油氣供應路徑，朝向來源多元化，以避免海上運油風險及分散石油供給集中之制約。另以中亞諸國為謀求現實的戰略利益，採行門戶開放及多邊平衡外交策略，使得美國、歐盟及日本等各主要大國力量進入。中國為維護油源穩定安全，積極踐行「走出去」與「多元化」之戰略，其與各大國在中亞的能源競逐仍將持續，同時影響區域及全球政經局勢。 / The importance of geostrategy is obvious for those Central Asian countries, backing the political stage of the world after dissolution of the Soviet Union, in the central mainland of Euro-Asia because of their sensitive geographical location with advantage of abundant energy. At present, those countries are under reforming period and aggressively try to use their innate conditions, especially the resources of gas or petroleum, for development abroad and stabilization domestically to get interests under the impacts of the great nations’ competition and globalization. On the other hand, China is facing on the economy and comprehensive national strength restriction and national security threaten by petroleum importation dependence and economic growth rapidity. Being face the trouble of petroleum security, China, standing on the commanding point of the global energy field, is aggressive to explore energy resources and try to strength energy cooperative relationships with the Central Asian area, neighbor to China and the best choice, having abundant petroleum to support her stable needs. This study is in the point of view, geostrategy, to analyze the trends of geopolitics and petroleum security between China and those Central Asian countries. The purposes including the energy diplomacy content, layout and practice of China in this area, and the opportunity and challenge are being discussed. To sum up, the overall strategic layouts of petroleum in the Central Asian area for China are using diplomacy as backing, public petroleum enterprise as main axis, Shanghai cooperation organization as platform, both and multi sides processings, Central Asian area harmonizing construction by advantage of geography, and multi-resources via building the terrestrial gas supply routes to avoid the restriction of the risk of petroleum shipping and to decentralize the collection of petroleum supply. Owing to the realistic strategic benefits for those Central Asian countries, by open door policy and multi-sides balance diplomatic strategy, some great nations are trying to get in, including the USA, EU and Japan, etc. For assurance of the stable and security of petroleum supply, China is aggressive to conduct the strategies, “Go out” and “Multiplication”, to continue the energy competition with those great nations, and to influence the area and global economic and political situation.