國家政策之制定須配合未來人口總數及其結構等特性，藉以達到提高國民福 祉的願景，因此各國均定期公佈人口推估(Population Projection)的結果，目前臺 灣官方人口推估為每兩年公布一次。人口推估主要考量三個要素：出生、死亡、 遷移，以國家層級而言，通常遷徙對未來人口的影響遠小於出生與死亡，所以過 去行政院經濟建設委員會的官方全國人口推估一般專注於出生與死亡。然而，各 國研究發現遷徙是小區域人口推估為最重要的因素，人口數愈少、影響程度有愈 大的傾向，但文獻中較缺乏臺灣內部遷移的研究。如能掌握臺灣小區域人口遷徙 的變遷，將能使政策因地制宜，有助地方政府提高推行政策的有效性，也是本研 究之目標。 由於缺乏完整的縣市、鄉鎮市區層級的詳細遷移資料，本研究以人口平衡公 式反推淨遷移人數，找出各地區的遷移特性後，代入人口變動要素合成法(Cohort Component Method)，搭配屬於機率推估的區塊拔靴法(Block Bootstrap)，推估小 區域的未來人口。關於出生及死亡的推估，過去研究發現使用區塊拔靴法用於小 區域的生育率（曹育欣，2012）及死亡率（金碩，2011），皆有不錯的推估結果。 本研究以臺北市為範例，討論區塊拔靴法在小區域遷徙人口數、年齡別遷徙人口 的推估效果，及是否適合運用在其他不同縣市。 / The population projection is used to provide information for the policy planning of governments. In Taiwan, the Council for Economic Planning and Development is in charge of the official population projection and it release projection results every two years. Basically, three factors are considered in population projection: birth, death, and migration. Since the migration has little impacts in country-level projection, many countries (including Taiwan) assume the future migration is zero or close to zero, and the focus of projection is usually on the birth and death. However, for the projection of small area (such as county- or township-level), past studies found that the effect of migration cannot be ignored. But, partly due to the limitation of migration data, there are not many studies explore the migration patterns of counties or townships in Taiwan. In this study, we use the population records (births and deaths) and the population equation to derive the county-level records of internal migration in Taiwan. We use these data to explore the migration patterns of all counties in Taiwan, and then applying block bootstrap method to modify the county-level population projection. Note that, the block bootstrap is shown to be reliable in forecasting fertility (Tsao, 2012) and mortality (Jin, 2011) for small areas. In this study, we also use the Taipei City to demonstrate the population projection which includes the internal migration, and the result is promising.

近年來有許多研究發現，適應性管制圖在偵測製程或產品幅度偏移時的速度比傳統的舒華特管制圖來的快，許多文獻也討論到利用適應性管制技術同時監控製程的平均數和變異數。隨著科技的發達，許多產品在製造上更加精密，現今普遍使用的固定參數管制圖並無法有效率的偵測出製程失控，導致巨大的成本損失。為了改善現有管制圖的偵測效率與有效控制製程失控下的損失，我們提出了三種適應性加權損失管制圖，包括變動抽樣間隔(VSI)、變動樣本數與抽樣間隔(VSI)、變動管制參數(VP)來偵測單一製程與兩相依製程的平均數和變異數。採用製程發生變動後到管制圖偵測出異常訊息所需的平均時間(AATS)與所需的總觀測數(ANOS)來衡量管制圖的偵測績效，並利用馬可夫鏈推導計算得之。從數值分析中發現，適應性加權損失管制圖在「偵測小偏移幅度時的偵測效率」與「成本的控制」明顯比傳統管制圖表現的更好，再加上每一個製程僅需採用單一管制圖，對使用者也較為簡便並且容易理解，因此適應性加權損失管制圖在實務上是值得被推薦使用的。 / Recent research has shown that control charts with adaptive features detect process shifts faster than traditional Shewhart charts. In this article, we propose three kinds of adaptive weighted loss (WL) control charts, variable sampling intervals (VSI) WL control charts , variable sample sizes and sampling intervals (VSSI) WL control charts and variable parameters (VP) WL control charts, to monitor the target and variance on a single process step and two dependent process steps simultaneously. These adaptive WL control charts may effectively distinguish which process step is out-of-control. We use the Markov chain approach to calculate the adjusted average time to signal (AATS) and average number of observations to signal (ANOS) in order to measure the performance of the proposed control charts. From the numerical examples and data analyses, we find the adaptive WL control charts have better detection abilities and performance than fixed parameters (FP) WL control charts and FP Z(X-bar)-Z(Sx^2) and Z(e-bar)-Z(Se^2) control charts. We also proposed the optimal adaptive WL control charts using an optimization technique to minimize AATS when users cannot specify the values of the variable parameters. In addition, we discuss the impact of misusing weighted loss of outgoing quality control chart. In conclusion, using a single chart to monitor a process is inherently easier than using two charts. The WL control charts are easy to understand for the users, and have better performance and detection abilities than the other charts, thus, we recommend the use of WL control charts in the real industrial process.

一個國家對全國人口有充分瞭解，方能依據國情制定適合的政策，地方發展更是如此，更須洞悉各地的人口結構，以善用有限的資源。台灣近年人口老化日益明顯，各縣市的老化速度及人口問題也不盡相同，若可獲得各地區未來的人口相關數值 (亦即人口推估)，當能減輕未來人口老化對台灣造成的衝擊。本文以縣市層級的人口推估，也就是小區域人口推估為研究目標，探討需注意的事項，尋找適合台灣地區的小區域推估方法。 本文整理小區域人口推估方法，並使用人口要素變動合成法 (Cohort Component Method)，以雲嘉兩縣、臺北市、澎湖縣為範例，測試縣市層級的人口推估。人口推估與生育、死亡、遷移三者的假設有密切關係，我們以死亡率為目標，比較不同模型的優劣，考慮的模型包括 Lee-Carter 模型、區塊拔靴法 (Block Bootstrap)、篩網拔靴法 (Sieve Bootstrap) 以及泛函資料分析 (Functional Data Analysis) 中的主成份分析 (Principle Component Analysis)，以估計誤差為衡量方法優劣的標準。分析發現篩網拔靴法、區塊拔靴法、Lee-Carter 模型三者的結果較佳，因此在小區域推估中使用較簡便的區塊拔靴法。研究發現對小區域的人口推估而言，遷移假設扮演非常重要的角色，此與全國規模的人口推估結果截然不同。研究過程亦發現人口三要素對人口推估有明顯的影響，若假設三要素間互相獨立 (也就是傳統推估時的假設)，推估結果的預測區間遠小於三要素不獨立。 / The government can make policy according to the population change in this country, while the local government can develop their district by using their limited resources well after realizing the populaton structure. The population ageing is becoming more serious and being more different among every counties in Taiwan day by day. If we can get the relative numbers of population in the future (population projection), we can decrease the attack of population ageing for Taiwan. The aim of this paper is to find an appropriate method and some notations of small area population projection in Taiwan. The paper includes the summary of methods of small area population projection and the results by using cohort component method on three areas in Taiwan, YunLin & ChiaYi, Taipein City and PengHu. Population projection is highly related with birth, death and migration, hence we test the mortality rate by using several methods, Lee-Carter, block bootstrap, sieve bootstrap and principal component analysis of functional data analysis are included. We found that the result of sieve bootstrap, block bootstrap and Lee-Carter are much better than the others, therefore, we take block bootstrap which is much simpler than the other two to analysis the effect of birth, death and migration in population projection. The sutdy found that, in small area population projecton, migration plays an important role, which is totally different from the whole country population projection.

房屋預售制度是國內不動產業的一大特色，而長期以來國內對房價的研究皆著重於成屋價格，且大都以特徵價格法分析成屋價格屬性，對預售屋價格的形成及成屋與預售屋彼此價格相互影響一直缺乏深入的研究。造成政府管理及業者經營上的困擾，也直接威脅到購屋的權益，因此透過預售屋價格理論層次的探討，將有助於學術界對房屋預售制度的暸解。 由於房屋預售的交易標的為土地及房屋預售契約，而此約定於未來特定時間交貨之契約買賣形式，基本上即具有遠期交易與期貨的性質。因此本文利用儲存理論於無套利均衡的情形下，依序考慮有無不動產市場景氣變動與預售屋產品風險，來加以推演預售屋價格，最後導出預售屋訂價模式為成屋價格加成屋的持有成本，減預售屋的履約保證費用，加上預期景氣變動價差。模式中預售屋產品風險及市場景氣變動因素的考慮，為本研究學術上的主要貢獻。 進一步利用特徵價格方程式來固定品質，使成屋與預售屋在相同的基礎上比較，並藉由太平洋房屋所提供之民國77年∼82年大台北都會區實際成交案例8885筆來試驗。發現期間預售屋每戶價格平均比成屋高出33．08萬，即就大台北都會區的房屋市場而言，購屋者於此期間選購成屋較有利、比較各年之預售屋與成屋價格，除77年之基差為負以外， 78年∼82年的基差都大於零，其中基差變動的原因，可由本研究所建立之理論模式來加以詮釋。最後應用理論模式來分析房屋市場的基差，說明國內預售屋價格大多高於成屋價格的原因，並詮釋理論模式的政策意涵，與對購屋決策及建商經營的應用。 / The pre-sales housing system in Taiwan is a quite unique method allowing home buyers to speculate on or purchase their houses. The prices of pre-sales houses have become a leading indicator of the housing cycle in the market. However, limited knowledge is availab1e regarding how and why pre-sales house prices are determined, or what is the relationshiP between the pre-sales and existing house prices. 　 Determining Whether the theories of forward or futures transactions can account for the pre-sales house pricing behavior is highly desired since one characteristic feature of the pre-sales syStem is its similarity to forwqrd of futures transactions. In this study, an arbitrage perspective is used to discuss the difference (basis ) between pre-sales and existing house prices. Based on the storage theory, a pricing model suitable for pre-sales houses in Taiwan was established steP by step under the considerations of the presence of expected market changes, and the risk of product uncertainty in pre-sales houses.The price of pre-sales houses is equal to the price of existing houses on the transaction date plus the carry cost, and the price difference resulted from expected market changes minus the contract guarantee cost. The established model was then used to analyze the 8885 actual transaction cases provided by the Pacific Rehouse during l988 and l993. We used hedonic price. theory to analyze the differences between pre-sales and existing house price. As far as the overall market is concerned, the analysis found that the difference between the pre-sales house price on the transaction date and the price of the existing house was NT$330,800/unit. The basis was positive in l988 and negative during l989 and l993. By the pricing modeL, we can explain the price of pre-sales houses was greater then that of existing housing in most cases. The results of our research also can be applied to the real estate policy and the decision of purchasing house.

本研究欲瞭解在模擬招募情境中，兩個薪資特徵-「變動薪資比例」 與「加薪型態」，分別對組織吸引力之影響，並探討此兩組關係中「風險 知覺」的中介效果與「性格變項（核心自我評價）」的調節效果。本研究 採2x2 受試者間之實驗設計，所操弄的二個獨變項為：1.變動薪資比例 （高、低）；2.加薪型態（高機率低加薪、低機率高加薪），依變項為整 體「組織吸引力」及其三個向度（組織正向情感、雇主評價、求職行動 意圖）。 本研究之受試者為139 位大學應屆畢業生，研究結果顯示：「變動薪 資比例」越高，受試者感受的「風險知覺」越高；但「加薪型態」與受 試者的「風險知覺」無顯著關係。當受試者的「風險知覺」較高時，其 組織正向情感、雇主評價則較低；然而，變動薪資比例、加薪型態與組 織吸引力無顯著關係。雖然核心自我評價並沒有調節「變動薪資比例」 或「加薪型態」與組織吸引力的關係；可是核心自我評價卻調節「風險 知覺」與整體組織吸引力與其二個子向度（組織正向情感、求職行動意 圖）的關係。 研究者分別就結果加以討論，提出可能的解釋，並說明本研究之限 制與貢獻。 / This paper presents an experimental investigation of the influences of type of variable pay ratio and type of pay increases on overall organizational attraction and its three dimensions: affection, intentions toward the company and company prestige. A 2x2 between subjects design was used. Two independent variables were types of variable pay ratio (high/ low) and types of pay increases (high probability, small pay increases/ low probability, large pay increases). The dependent variable was organizational attraction. Risk perception and core self-evaluation were mediating and moderating variable, respectively. The sample comprised 139 college students approaching graduation. The results demonstrated that higher variable pay ratio caused higher risk perception but type of pay increases did not. Higher risk perception caused lower affection, company prestige; however, type of variable pay ratio and type of pay increases did not. Core self-evaluation did not mediate the relationship between type of variable pay ratio and risk perception, but it mediated the relationship between risk perception and overall organizational attraction and its two of three dimensions (affection, intentions toward the company). Based on the results, alternative explanation, limits, and implications were discussed.

藉由建築物之改變，可以觀察都市發展轉變之過程。在一個都市經過完全開發之後，都市內部就會開始出現建築物重開發。林享博（1993）與俞國華（2010）的研究指出，建築物之重開發並非是因為建築物損壞至無法使用，而另有原因存在。本研究藉由過去之相關文獻觀察各都市建築物重開發之情形，歸納出建築物重開發可能影響因素。 本研究選取臺北市為研究範圍，使用臺北市建築管理處核發之建築物使用執照及拆除執照計算建築物之重開發程度，以里為最小空間單元，運用空間分析方法觀察臺北市建築物重開發之空間分佈模式，並運用迴歸分析方法觀察各種因素對於臺北市建築物重開發之影響。經實證研究發現，臺北市之建築重開發會受到地區之戶口數變動率、所得水準、平均屋齡、捷運站、政府主導土地開發等因素影響；戶口數變動率與政府主導之土地開發分別代表了市場力量以及政府力量，則為影響建築物重開發最主要的兩個因素。曾經發生過區段徵收或市地重劃等政府主導土地開發計畫之地區，將形成建築物重開發之高-高空間聚集，而捷運規劃這類重大交通建設則會加速此情形之發生。 / Urban development can be exemplified by means of replacement of old buildings by new ones. Once sites in a city are fully developed, the old buildings will need to be demolished for vacant sites to be supplied. It is not just the physical obsolescence that leads to teardowns of buildings, a number of other factors are also at play. In this study, we select the occupancy permits and demolition permits of buildings issued by Taipei city government to calculate net supply of floor spaces. This net supply serves as a proxy variable of building replacement in regression models. We also employ spatial analysis to measure local spatial clustering of building activities. Our empirical results show that building replacement is affected by changes in households, income level, building ages, access to metro stations and government-led land development projects. Amongst them, changes in households and government-led land development projects are two primary contributing factors. Building activities tend to cluster in areas where government-led land development projects are located, and public transport (metro lines) intensifies this tendency.

本論文探討當自變數存在測量誤差時，羅吉斯迴歸模型的估計問題，並將此結果應用在電腦化適性測驗中的線上校準問題。在變動長度電腦化測驗的假設下，我們證明了估計量的強收斂性。試題反應理論被廣泛地使用在電腦化適性測驗上，其假設受試者在試題的表現情形與本身的能力，可以透過試題特徵曲線加以詮釋，羅吉斯迴歸模式是最常見的試題反應模式。藉由適性測驗的施行，考題的選取可以依據不同受試者，選擇最適合的題目。因此，相較於傳統測驗而言，在適性測驗中，題目的消耗量更為快速。在題庫的維護與管理上，新試題的補充與試題校準便為非常重要的工作。線上試題校準意指在線上測驗進行中，同時進行試題校準。因此，受試者的能力估計會存在測量誤差。從統計的觀點，線上校準面臨的困難，可以解釋為在非線性模型下，當自變數有測量誤差時的實驗設計問題。我們利用序貫設計降低測量誤差，得到更精確的估計，相較於傳統的試題校準，可以節省更多的時間及成本。我們利用處理測量誤差的技巧，進一步應用序貫設計的方法，處理在線上校準中，受試者能力存在測量誤差的問題。 / In this dissertation, we focus on the estimate in logistic regression models when the independent variables are subject to some measurement errors. The problem of this dissertation is motivated by online calibration in Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT). We apply the measurement error model techniques and adaptive sequential design methodology to the online calibration problem of CAT. We prove that the estimates of item parameters are strongly consistent under the variable length CAT setup. In an adaptive testing scheme, examinees are presented with different sets of items chosen from a pre-calibrated item pool. Thus the speed of attrition in items will be very fast, and replenishing of item pool is essential for CAT. The online calibration scheme in CAT refers to estimating the item parameters of new, un-calibrated items by presenting them to examinees during the course of their ability testing together with previously calibrated items. Therefore, the estimated latent trait levels of examinees are used as the design points for estimating the parameter of the new items, and naturally these designs, the estimated latent trait levels, are subject to some estimating errors. Thus the problem of the online calibration under CAT setup can be formulated as a sequential estimation problem with measurement errors in the independent variables, which are also chosen sequentially. Item Response Theory (IRT) is the most commonly used psychometric model in CAT, and the logistic type models are the most popular models used in IRT based tests. That's why the nonlinear design problem and the nonlinear measurement error models are involved. Sequential design procedures proposed here can provide more accurate estimates of parameters, and are more efficient in terms of sample size (number of examinees used in calibration). In traditional calibration process in paper-and-pencil tests, we usually have to pay for the examinees joining the pre-test calibration process. In online calibration, there will be less cost, since we are able to assign new items to the examinees during the operational test. Therefore, the proposed procedures will be cost-effective as well as time-effective.

策略的目的是在特定的競爭環境中，憑藉企業的特質條件為它創造競爭地位或發展的方向，也就是創造具競爭性的差異優勢，使企業得以順利發展和持續成長。在競爭的環境中，組織能耐常會隨著時間經過而演化；演化的方式會隨著技術本身的特性、外部市場競爭強弱、與內部的組織與管理特性的差異，而有所不同。除此之外，體制環境會影響整個產業內的創新速率，因而對廠商的能耐演化造成影響。但是在環境急速變動的情況下，組織能耐要完全由內部產生不但不可能，而且其速度亦嫌過於緩慢，再加上現代企業的專業分工網絡，企業必須與客戶、供應商、甚至競爭同業合作，以獲得相關的資訊與技術；在企業的發展歷程中，如何有效提升內部經營管理及促進組織之間的知識交流與能耐移轉，便成為組織管理的重要課題。 本研究以一家台灣本土醫藥公司，在台灣生技製藥產業的架構下，創業、轉型、成長的發展歷程，仔細描述影響企業發展的關鍵因素 ─ 企業策略轉變、環境變動、能耐演化，以及企業內部管理提升，彼此之間如何相互配適，並塑造出企業的獨特發展路徑；茲藉由個案公司過去的回顧，描繪其成長的軌跡，作為其未來發展路徑的參考。 / Under the favorable government policy support and a well-established regulatory environment, there are more and more new start-up companies established in Taiwan biotechnology and pharmaceutical industry in the past dacade. However, most of the new emerging companies are still facing very difficult situation. New drug discovery is one kind of long-term time-consuming and heavily cash-investment-needed business. Besides, Taiwan is a small market in the world. The market potential can not afford to develop a R&D based local pharmaceutical company. However, biotechnology and pharmaceutical industry is a very diversified and versatile industry. Under such circumstances, how does a biotech and pharmaceutical company make use of the limited resources and scarce capital assets to identify the niche market, create a new business model, develop the corporate competence, and construct the internal operation to strengthen the core business and secure a sustainable growth in the industry? Besides, due to the evolution of the modern tools including genomic science, bioinformatics, high-through-put screening machine, and gene therapy, the speed of new drug discovery becomes much faster and much more efficient, but the product life cycle also becomes much shorter. How does a local company play in such a highly competitive, technically professional, and dramatically changed environment? This study tracks the growth path of a local pharmaceutical company to show how the key factors, which are, environmental uncertainty, the development of core competence in the firm, and the choice of a successful strategy by top management and the organization, can be manipulated in the entrepreneurial firm that grows rapidly and formalizes its structure and internal operation. The growth path of the company in the past years could be interpretated as the mutual interactions (dynamic fit) of those key factors. Evenmore, the interaction consequences influence the strategic intent to confront the changing environment, and facilitate the practice of the law and the establishment of a government policy. Besides, in order to improve the whole healthcare system in certain medical care, the company develops a new operation model to run the specific business. Traditionally, most pharmaceutical companies are pursuing market-oriented product management, instead of sales-oriented business management. Nowadays, most multi-national firms are actively involved in disease management to expand the market share of certain disease. However, how to integrate the healthcare system and strengthen individual disease management under the specific healthcare system has become a new operation model of a pharmaceutical company to a specific market segment. The company has to work together and closely with the stakeholders, such as health authorities, medical societies, patient associations, healthcare personnel, and the patients themselves to improve the whole healthcare system and even the policy of the law, regulatory, social, and welfare system in the specific medical care, as well.

人口政策的制定需要人口推估作基礎。近年世界各國人口推估逐漸從專家意見推估走向機率推估，常見的機率推估分成三大類，隨機推估、模擬情境、推估誤差三種，本文所使用的人口推估方法為隨機推估法結合生育率之模擬情境方法，在人口變動要素組合法 (Cohort Component Method) 之下輔以電腦模擬的區塊拔靴法 (Block Bootstrap)，針對台灣地區與台灣北、中、南、東四地區進行人口推估。另外，本文試圖在隨機模型人口推估中加入遷移人口之考量，以期針對遷移人口在數量與其影響上都能有較深入的了解，比較區塊拔靴法與經建會推估之差異後發現遷移之考量確實會影響人口推估之結果。 / 針對與全區相符的小區域人口推估，本文亦提出可使得推估一致的方法，但其缺點為限制了生育、死亡人口要素之變動性。此推估在總數上與隨機推估方法差異不大，但在人口結構上則有明顯的差別，此差別可能是來自於死亡率在四區間差異造成。 / Population projection is important to policy making, and only with accurate population projection can the government achieve suitable policy planning and improve the welfare of the society. The most popular and well-known population projection method is the Cohort Component method, proposed since 1930’s. The trends of future fertility, mortality and migration are required, in order to apply the cohort component method. Currently in Taiwan, these trends are determined according to experts’ opinions (or scenario projection) and three future scenarios are assumed: high, median and low scenarios. One of the drawbacks in applying experts’ opinions is that the projection results of these three scenarios do not have the meaning in probability. / To modify the expert’ opinions and let the projection results carry the meaning in probability, many demographic researchers have developed stochastic projection methods. The proposed stochastic methods can be categorized into three groups: stochastic forecast, random scenario and ex post methods. In this study, we introduce these stochastic methods and evaluate the possibility of applying the methods in projecting the population in Taiwan. / In this study we use block bootstrap, a computer simulation and stochastic forecast method, to determine the trends of future fertility, mortality and migration in Taiwan, and combine it with the cohort component method for population projection in Taiwan. We compare the projection results with those from the Council for Economic Planning and Development (a scenario projection). We found that the block bootstrap is a possible alternative to the scenario projection in population projection, and the numbers of migration is small but have a non-ignorable influence on the future population. However, we also found that the block bootstrap alone might not be appropriate for population projection in small areas.

動機是成癮行為改變的重要因素，但動機高者並不能保證治療成效，同時強制治療個案即使在進入治療時動機較低，治療成效卻和自願者組沒有差異，顯示強制治療下即使進入治療時其內在動機較低也不影響治療成效。同時文獻亦證實預測成效最一致的因子為停留在治療期間的長短（retention），而預測治療期間的因子為治療投入，所以在治療過程為架構的研究模式下治療投入為影響成效的關鍵因素。雖然多數研究均顯示進入治療時動機對治療投入及治療期間長短有所影響，但是亦有研究認為治療過程相關因素才是影響治療投入及治療期間的關鍵。基於上述藥癮成效與治療過程、個案動機、治療期間的關係，同時考量台灣戒治制度須有替代治療期間的變項，本研究以探討戒治醫療處遇方案為主，了解治療對受戒治人之出所時康復態度的影響，此外基於動機在改變歷程的重要性，本研究分為二個重點：一、探討動機的相關因素，著重探討認知評估對動機的影響。二、釐清個案動機、治療投入及康復態度之關係。 本研究以台灣北區某戒治所受戒治人為研究對象，在受戒治人出所前三個月開始接受戒治醫療處遇為期六週，治療前施測：動機量表、基本資料、物質使用情形、犯罪/前科/服刑情形、康復態度等，治療結束後施測：康復態度、治療回顧、治療投入、對治療者評價等，最後以65位受試者作為本研究樣本進行分析。 研究結果顯示：一、動機相關因素：(1)人口變項、物質使用情形無法有效預測動機變項。(2)認知評估相較於問題嚴重度更能有效預測動機變項。(3)認知評估作為人口變項、物質使用、問題嚴重度(獨變項)及動機變項(依變項)間的中介效果部分獲得支持。(4)心理問題及困擾、家庭問題能夠有效預測動機。二、個案動機、治療投入與康復態度之關係：(1)治療投入僅與康復態度後測正相關顯著，卻未與康復態度前測相關達顯著。(2) 階層迴歸中治療投入能解釋較大的變異，同時治療投入及個案動機中之治療準備性對康復態度的重要性大。(3).動機及治療投入皆能有效預測康復態度，但康復態度不具有中介效果。同時康復態度前後測差異未達統計顯著性。由上述結果來看，認知評估對動機的影響最為重要，並具有中介效果，顯示除了真實藥癮及其相關問題外，認知性內在動機須由高等認知評價歷程相關較高。儘管進入治療動機能影響康復態度，但是治療投入對於治療結束時對出所後運用社區醫療資源意願有較大的預測力。 最後根據研究結果進行對動機及治療投入相關因素進行討論，並建議未來研究方向及矯正機構毒品犯處遇。 / Aim. This study examined the predictors of drug offender motivation and the relationship among motivation, treatment, attitude for recovery. Setting. The data were collected from long-term mandated residential treatment program located in Taiwan Rehabilitation Rehabilitation Northern Center. Participants. A total of 65clients received drug abuse treatment program were studied. Measurement. Pretreatment variables included: socio-demographic indicators, drug use history and dependence criminality, addiction severity index, TCU three –staged-of- motivation（problem recognition, desire for help, treatment readiness）,and attitude for recovery. After treatment variables included: treatment process review, treatment engagement, and attitude for recovery. Results. （1）Cognitive appraisal is the most important predictor of client internal motivation for change.（2）Cognitive appraisal has mediating effect between problem severity and internal motivation.（3）Client motivation（treatment readiness） and treatment engagement are significantly related to attitude for recovery. Treatment engagement is more important than client motivation. The clinical implications and limitation was discussed.