在服務資源需求量會隨時間而改變的情況下，系統的服務資源供給對致力於提供高服務品質的資源提供者來說是一個重要的議題。在服務資源可以迅速的部署和解除的假設下，像是以雲端運算為基礎之服務，本研究提供了系統性的估算服務資源方法，本方法之結構是以模擬為基礎並結合了非監督式學習、顧客到達率之估計以及統計技術。首先，本研究將每一日之顧客到達率進行分群運算並將具有類似顧客到達模式的日期分為一群，且每一群之包含日期具備可解釋之代表性；下一階段使用兩階段式的忙碌因子模型去建立每一群的顧客到達率模型，並估計該群的多區間普瓦松分布來做為系統模擬隨機過程所需之參數；最後應用了等候模型理論去設計系統模擬方法，模擬出顧客在系統中到達並接受服務的隨機過程，其結果包含觀察出顧客在系統中的等待時間和排隊長度以及所需之服務資源，並提供在不同的服務策略情形下之表現。 本研究使用了一個來自電力公司客服中心之進線量資料進行本方法之實驗，展示出如何使用本方法建立一個能滿足服務水準要求的服務資源配置策略，也和該公司過去之配置策略進行比較，並提出實質上如何提升服務品質的配置策略之建議。

本研究以大台北地區所屬的五十個加油站為研究母體，利用簡單隨機抽樣，抽取其中 的二十五個站為觀測紀錄之樣本站，紀錄其車次到達，加油方式、加油量、付款方式 等資料，並以卡方及克斯檢定決定各變數之機率分配型態，作為等候線模擬之投入變 數。而後就模擬結果做迴歸及變異數分析，以決定在各種不同的人力配置，設備布置 ，車次，加油方式、油量、付款方式下的加油效率。據此求得加油站人力配置之一般 化模式，以作為加油站人力配置之參考。

鑒於金融機構跨業經營乃係現況發展趨勢，而風險管理已成為金融機構業務管理之首務，本研究將探討國際金融機構風險管理的新規範－新版巴賽爾資本協定（Basel II），並蒐集民國八十三年六月至民國九十二年三月我國上市公司公開發行之財務資訊，分別以商業銀行、證券公司、人壽保險公司、產物保險公司及票券公司為代表，模擬為金融控股公司下之各個子公司，將結合營運性、風險性、及法令為考量之資本配置模型；進一步探討金融控股公司之風險管理與資本配置。 歸納模擬結果如下： 以營運性為考量並配合法令要求之資本配置，此配置模型係在設定盈餘目標下，追求風險極小值，或設定風險容忍水準，以追求盈餘之極大值。經過目標值的變動下，此最適化模型可得一效率前緣曲線。由此效率前緣圖可知，在盈餘維持在平均盈餘水準下，此模型可使風險值由原來的8,860佰萬元降至7,045佰萬元，其降幅為20%，RAROC由原來的0.77升至0.97，升幅為25%；若固定風險值在原來未分配前的平均水準，則盈餘由先前的7,681佰萬元提升至8,821佰萬元，其提升幅度為14%，RAROC由原來的0.77提升至0.90，提升幅度為16%，亦相當可觀。若將資本維持在歷史平均水準，則可使其盈餘達到7,305佰萬元，而風險值為6,446佰萬元，RAROC為1.00，升幅為29%。據此推論，依此配置模型分配結果，將可改善整體金融控股公司之經營績效。 綜合營運性、風險性並考量法令要求之資本分配模型，納入了風險限制條件，主要係考量高風險之業務，須有高資本以因應其非預期性損失，但同時為兼顧經營績效，必須在營運性與風險性間求得平衡點；實證結果發現，受到風險性限制條件的影響，使得此條效率前緣曲線均落在以營運性為考量資本配置模型之下方，這代表的是在此模型下，無法達到較高之盈餘，原因來自於高盈餘伴隨著高風險，但高風險在此配置模型中是不允許的。惟此模型依然有提升整體經營績效的功能。例如，將盈餘目標設為原來的7,681佰萬元，則風險值降為7,601佰萬元，降幅約14%，RAROC也提升至0.90，升幅為16%；若資本維持在平均水準177,185佰萬元，則盈餘可達到5,802佰萬元，風險值則為4,528佰萬元，RAROC為1.09，較原先高出41%。 / As cross business managing is the modern development trend and risk management has been the first task for the financial institutions, this study attempts to analyze the new standard of the international financial institutions’ risk management – new Basel II. The data concerning business operations, risks, regulations from June 1992 to March 2003 are collected for each group of commercial banks, security houses, life insurance companies, non-life insurance companies, bill finance companies to build a capital allocation model. The financial holding companies’ risk management and capital allocation is further discussed. The results of this study are summarized as follows: The capital allocation model considers business operations and regulations. This allocation model sets up profit target, seeks minimum risk or sets up level of risk tolerance to seek maximum profit. After the variable target, the suitable model can get a efficient frontier curve. From this curve we find out that the profit maintains under the average profit level. The model can make Value-at-Risk reduce from 8,860 million to 7,045 million, down 20%, RAROC rise from 0.77 to 0.97, up 25%; if the fixed Value-at-Risk is before distributing, the profit will rise from 7,681 mission to 8,821 million, up 14%, RAROC will rise from 0.77 to 0.90, up 16%, still outstanding. If the capital remains at historical average level, then the profit can reach 7,305 million, and the Value-at-Risk is 6,446 million, RAROC is 1.00, up 29%. According to the inference, the distributing result of the allocation model can improve the operation performance of the financial holding company. The capital allocation model synthesize operation, risk and consider legal requirement, bring into the restriction of risk is to consider high risky business should have high capital to deal with unexpected loss, but also to consider operation performance, need to seek balance between operation and risk; From the result of this study finds that under risk restriction, the efficient frontier curve is within the capital allocation model which considers operation, this means under the model, higher profit is hard to achieve, the reason is high profit accompanies high risk, and high risk is prohibited from the model. But this model still has the function to approve whole operation performance. For example, if the profit target is 7,681 million as original, the Value-at-Risk will reduce to 7,601 million, down 14%, RAROC will rise to 0.90, up 16%; if the capital remains at the average level’s 177,185 million, the profit can reach 5,802 million, the Value-at-Risk is 4,528 million and RAROC is 1.09, up 41%.

本文利用模擬最適化（Simulation Optimization）的技術，來找出適合投資人之最佳資產配置。模擬最適化係為一種將決策變數輸入而使其反應變數得到最佳化結果之技術，在本篇中，決策變數為各種投資標的之資產配置，而反應變數則為投資結果之預期報酬與標準差，模擬最適化可視為一種在可行範圍內尋求最佳解之過程。本篇中模擬最適化之方法係採演化策略法，最適化問題則為具放空限制之多期架構。我們亦進一步與各種傳統的投資保險策略比較，包括買入持有策略（Buy-and-Hold）、固定比例策略（Constant Mix）、固定比例投資保險策略（Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance）及時間不變性投資組合保險策略（Time-Invariant Portfolio Protection），以驗證模擬最適化的有效性，並以多種評估指標來衡量各種策略績效之優劣。 由實證結果發現，利用模擬最適化求解出每月的最適資產配置，雖然造成每期因資金配置比例變動而提高波動性，另一方面卻能大幅的增加報酬率。整體而言，模擬最適化技術的確能夠有效提升投資績效，使得最終財富增加，並且得到較大的夏普指數及每單位風險下較高的報酬。 / This paper applied simulation optimization technique to search for the optimal asset allocation. Simulation optimization is the process of determining the values of the decision variables that optimize the values of the stochastic response variable generated from a simulation model. The decision variables in our case are the allocations of many kinds of assets. The response variable is a function of the expected wealth and the associated risk. The simulation optimization problem can be characterized as a stochastic search over a feasible exploration region. The method we applied is the evolution strategies and the optimization problem is formulated as a multi-period one with short-sale constraints. In order to verify the effectiveness of simulation optimization, we compared the resulting asset allocation with allocations obtaining using traditional portfolio insurance strategies including Buy-and-Hold, Constant Mix, Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance, and Time-Invariant Portfolio Protection. We also used many indexes to evaluate performance of all kinds of strategies in this paper. Our empirical results indicated that using simulation optimization to search for the best asset allocation resulted in large volatilities, however, it significantly enhanced rate of return. As a whole, applying simulation optimization indeed gets the better performance, increases the final wealth, makes Sharpe Index large, and obtains the higher return under per unit risk.

「促進民間參與公共建設法」賦予民間機構從事開發交通建設所需用地，藉以提高交通建設之財務自償能力。回顧目前國內所推動之高速鐵路及捷運建設BOT案，均藉由土地開發收入以挹注建設成本，誠然所引發公共論壇的焦點環繞在土地開發利益議題上。惟土地開發收入取決於開發規模及代理人努力效果等因素，在政府與民間機構存在對土地市場價值資訊不對稱下，恐衍生委託代理問題與權力宰制。 審視現行法令賦予私有土地參與捷運場站開發制度，包括政府和所有權人合作開發、政府徵收開發、所有權人申請開發等多樣性之土地開發方式。面對具提高不動產價值之捷運場站土地開發，研究思維理應從單向滿足民間機構對土地開發需求外，亦需同時考量維護所有權人參與之權益，各方最佳的策略與報酬，並非獨立於他人的行動之外，其間之策略組合報酬主要涉及土地開發方式之權益分配率及開發回饋金，捷運場站開發制度存在策略賽局關係。 因此，如何建構兼具代理規範、參與決策及均衡結果為導向的制度經濟分析模型，已成為推動民間參與捷運場站土地開發之關鍵所在。本研究首先，嘗試以代理理論、權力面向及賽局理論分析方法，作為民間參與捷運場站土地開發制度之立論基礎；其次，深入分析土地開發之代理與權力交互效果，重新詮釋資源配置效率問題；其三，研擬民間參與之代理與賽局整合模型，經由制度賽局均衡結果以達成各方自由選擇下之同意；最後，進行案例模擬分析。 本研究所獲致之結論包括：(1)民間參與捷運場站土地開發制度得以代理理論、權力面向及賽局理論一窺全貌；(2)制度的賽局均衡觀得以降低因徵收土地開發之代理與權力交互關係對資源配置效率之衝擊；(3)模擬分析民間參與之代理與賽局整合模型具可操作性並可運用於實務界。再者，本研究所提出之建議包括：(1)建構政府與民間機構之代理模型俾以降低委託代理問題；(2)建構政府與所有權人之制度賽局模型俾以達成自願交易；(3)建構代理規範與制度賽局之整合模型以維護所有權人參與土地開發之權益。 / “Law for Promotion of Private Participation in Public Infrastructure Projects” provides a mechanism for the private sector to develop the land for any public infrastructure project so that the financial self-liquidating ratio may be increased. The financial concept of BOT projects in Taiwan, such as HSR and MRT, is to recoup the cost of the infrastructure project by land development revenues. Indeed, the public concerns focus on the revenues, which depend on the institution and scale of development. However, the revenues depend on the scale of development and effect of the agent’s efforts. While the information asymmetry exists, there may arise the issues of agency and power control. The institution of the MRT station development provides a diversity of land development, including cooperation development, expropriation development and application development. The development issue has switched from government-led development approaches to the interaction between the government and landowners. As for the payoff function of their strategy combination, it depends on the right distribution rate and feedback payment. In the MRT station development institution exists a form of strategic game. Therefore, how to establish an institutional economic analysis model takes agency norm, and involves decision-making and equilibrium, which forms the criterion, serving as a key to promote the private participation in MRT station development. This study attempts: First, to analyze the private participation in MRT station development based on the agency theory, power dimension, and game theory. Second, to explore the allocation efficiency of resources under the interaction effect of agent and power. Third, to establish an integrated model of both the agent and the game, which by equilibrium-of–the-game view of institutions reach a mutual agreement among the government, private sector, and landowners. Finally, case simulation. It is concluded that, (1) the institution of the private participation MRT station development may be fully reviewed by agency theory, power dimension, and game theory. (2) the equilibrium-of–the-game view of institutions may reduce the impact on the allocation efficiency of resources under the interaction effect of agent and power. (3) by case simulation found that the integrated model of both agent and game is available. It is suggested that, (1) to establish an agency model for both the government and private sector serves to solve agency issues. (2) to establish an institutional game model for both the government and landowner functions as voluntary exchanges. (3) to establish an integrated model of both agent and game helps to keep landowner on the rights of participation in MRT station development.

The purpose of this thesis is to use the martingale approach to solve dynamic international portfolio problems. This thesis consists of three essays in dynamic international portfolio allocation. In demonstrating that foreign consumption plays an important role in international portfolio allocations, in Chapter 2, we present the first essay where we provide the optimal consumption plan and portfolio allocation for a representative investor with continuoustime and complete market assumptions in a simple two-country setting. Due to the demand for foreign consumption, the optimal portfolio allocation requires suitable foreign bonds to hedge against the changes in the foreign investment opportunity set and the exchange rate. The empirical results not only show that the optimal portfolio allocation with domestic and foreign consumption is different from that without consumption or with domestic consumption only, but also demonstrate the need for the foreign bonds to hedge against the change in the exchange rate risk. We present the second essay in which we extend the research of the investor's portfolio allocation problem into a continuous dynamical international market where the investment barrier of international portfolio exists. With deterministic market prices of risks, CRRA utility function and the existence of a simple investment barrier, the investor optimally hedges against the investment opportunity by allocating funds into three portfolios which are constructed by unconstrained bank accounts, equities and bonds. The first portfolio is the so called mean-variance portfolio, the second is the hedge portfolio, and the third is the synthetic portfolio which mimics the expected excess return of the constrained security in foreign country. This issue displays in Chapter 3. The third essay is presented in Chapter 4. Here we develop a continuous-time intertemporal portfolio allocation model in an international mildly segmented market. With deterministic market prices of risks and CRRA utility function, the domestic investor in the segmented market optimally hedges against the stochastic interest rates by allocating funds into two portfolios. The restricted mean-variance portfolio is derived from the traditional mean-variance portfolio without foreign constrained securities. The hedge portfolio is comprised of domestic bonds with a specific horizon for hedging against the change in the domestic interest rate. The numerical results indicate that when the volatility of the stochastic discount factor increases due to the less diversification caused by market segmentation, the less risk-averse investor benefits accordingly. Chapter 5 summarizes the main findings of the three studies and concludes the thesis by suggesting some future research venues related the current subject. / The purpose of this thesis is to use the martingale approach to solve dynamic international portfolio problems. This thesis consists of three essays in dynamic international portfolio allocation. In demonstrating that foreign consumption plays an important role in international portfolio allocations, in Chapter 2, we present the first essay where we provide the optimal consumption plan and portfolio allocation for a representative investor with continuoustime and complete market assumptions in a simple two-country setting. Due to the demand for foreign consumption, the optimal portfolio allocation requires suitable foreign bonds to hedge against the changes in the foreign investment opportunity set and the exchange rate. The empirical results not only show that the optimal portfolio allocation with domestic and foreign consumption is different from that without consumption or with domestic consumption only, but also demonstrate the need for the foreign bonds to hedge against the change in the exchange rate risk. We present the second essay in which we extend the research of the investor's portfolio allocation problem into a continuous dynamical international market where the investment barrier of international portfolio exists. With deterministic market prices of risks, CRRA utility function and the existence of a simple investment barrier, the investor optimally hedges against the investment opportunity by allocating funds into three portfolios which are constructed by unconstrained bank accounts, equities and bonds. The first portfolio is the so called mean-variance portfolio, the second is the hedge portfolio, and the third is the synthetic portfolio which mimics the expected excess return of the constrained security in foreign country. This issue displays in Chapter 3. The third essay is presented in Chapter 4. Here we develop a continuous-time intertemporal portfolio allocation model in an international mildly segmented market. With deterministic market prices of risks and CRRA utility function, the domestic investor in the segmented market optimally hedges against the stochastic interest rates by allocating funds into two portfolios. The restricted mean-variance portfolio is derived from the traditional mean-variance portfolio without foreign constrained securities. The hedge portfolio is comprised of domestic bonds with a specific horizon for hedging against the change in the domestic interest rate. The numerical results indicate that when the volatility of the stochastic discount factor increases due to the less diversification caused by market segmentation, the less risk-averse investor benefits accordingly. Chapter 5 summarizes the main findings of the three studies and concludes the thesis by suggesting some future research venues related the current subject.

本研究探討長期投資人在面臨通貨膨脹風險時的最適投資決策。就長期投資者而言，諸如退休金規劃者等，通貨膨脹是無可避免卻又不易被數量化之風險，因為各國僅公布與之相關的消費者物價指數而沒有公布真實通貨膨脹數值，因此我們延伸Campbell和Viceira(2001)及Brennan和Xia(2002)的模型假設，以消費者物價指數的資訊來校正原先假定符合Vasicek模型之通貨膨脹動態過程。本研究之理論背景為：利用貝式過濾方法(Baysian Filtering Method)，將含有雜訊之消費者物價指數，透過後驗分配得出通貨膨脹動態過程。利用帄賭過程(Martingale Method)求解資產之公帄價格。再引進定值相對風險趨避(Constant Relative Risk Aversion，CRRA)的效用函數，求出最適投資組合下之期末累積財富、各期資產配置以及效用值。 / 本研究歸納數值結果如下： 一、投資期間越長，通貨膨脹學習效果越顯著。投資期間達25年以上時，有學習效果之累積財富為無學習效果時兩倍以上，25年為2.36倍；30年為2.18倍。此外，學習效果對投資人效用改善率於長期投資時也較顯著，投資10年效用改善率為35%，而投資30年則高達1289%，呈非線性成長。以上結果顯示：資產在市場上累積越久，受到通膨影響越明顯，更需要以學習方式動態調整資產配置進行通貨膨脹風險管理。 / 二、風險較趨避之投資人，CRRA參數值越大；於最適投資組合下之期末財富較少，因為風險較趨避投資人偏好低波動度資產組合。風險容忍度低之投資人較需要通貨膨脹之學習，否則效用減損過高，例如CRRA參數為1.5之投資人30年後效用減損65%，CRRA參數為4之投資人效用減損達96.5%。以上數據顯示：風險趨避投資人對風險關注程度較高，考慮學習效果時，較能根據目前通貨膨脹調整資產配置。 / This study examines the optimal portfolio selection incorporating inflation risk learning adjustments for a long-term investor. For long-term investors, it is inevitable to face the uncertainty of inflation. On the other hand, quantifying inflation risk needs more effort since the government announced the information on Consumer Price Index (CPI) rather than the real inflation rates. / In order to measure the inflation rate in planning the long-term investment strategies, we extend the works in Campbell and Viceira (2001) and Brennan and Xia (2002) to construct a stochastic process of the inflation rate. The prior distribution of inflation rate process, which is not directly observable, is assumed to follow the diffusion process. Based on the information of CPI, we then employ the optimal linear filtering equations to estimate the posterior distribution of the inflation rate process. Through these mechanisms, the inflation rate process is closer to reality by learning from CPI. We also construct the optimal portfolio strategy through a Martingale formulation based on the wealth constraints. The optimal portfolio strategies are given in closed-form solutions. / Furthermore, the importance of learning about inflation risk is summarized through the numerical results. (1) When the investment interval is longer, the learning effect becomes more significant. If the investment horizon is longer than 25 years, the wealth accumulation under learning will be twice more than that without learning effect, e.g., the wealth accumulation is approximately 2.36, 2.18 folds at the end of 25, 30 years. Utility increase under learning also become larger for long-term investor, e.g., the utility values will improve 35% after considering learning ability on inflation from 10-year interval, improve 1289% from 30 years. / (2)When the CRRA parameter increases, the investor have lower risk tolerance; and their wealth accumulation become less due to the lower volatility portfolio. A conservative investor requires more learning ability given the inflation, otherwise their utility value will be reduced, e.g., the utility values will be reduced 35% when CRRA=1.5 after 30 years’ investment, 96,5% when CRRA=4.

本研究主要分為三個部分：第一個部分探討壽險公司保單組合之最適資產配置；第二個部分探討確定提撥退休金制度下，員工所面臨的資產配置問題；第三個部分則為方法論的比較研究。此外，本文也探討長命風險(longevity risk)等相關議題。本文在Huang與Cairns (2006) 所提出的資產報酬模型下，推導出累積資產價值的期望值以及變異數，並利用套裝軟體的最佳化程式(optimization programming)獲得給定目標函數下的最適投資策略。 在保單組合資產配置之研究方面，我們分別針對保險公司繼續經營的商品以及即將停賣的商品提出合適的資產配置方式。常數資產配置方式(Constant rebalance rule)適合持續經營的商品，變動資產配置方式(Variable rebalance rule)則適合即將停賣的商品。在常數資產配置方式下，我們能夠得到投資組合的效率前緣線。此外，不管是何種資產配置方式，當保單組合的保單到期日較近時，保險公司必須增加其所持有的現金比例。 在確定提撥制下最適資產配置問題的研究方面，本文的結果符合一般退休基金經理人所採取的生命週期型態投資方式。本研究發現在Lee-Carter模型之下，考慮時間加權可以增加模型的預測能力。而在考慮長命風險下，員工必須採取更積極的投資策略。 本文決定資產配置之方法為預期模型(Anticipative model)，其在評價日時即決定未來的決策，不考慮新訊息對決策的影響。考慮新訊息會對決策產生影響的決定資產配置方法為適應模型(Adaptive model)。在第五章的研究裡，我們比較上述兩種決定資產配置方法之差異。研究結果發現，若以期望值與標準差為判斷標準，兩種決定資產配置方法並沒有絕對的優劣關係。而若在每個決策執行的時間點重新使用預期模型來決定新的資產配置策略，則其所對應的投資策略以及投資績效會與適應模型下的策略與投資績效接近。因此，在無法獲得適應模型投資策略封閉解的情況下，預期模型投資策略可以有效的近似適應模型投資策略。 / The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the asset allocation issue of the long-term investors. Our approach is to calculate theoretical formulae of the first two moments of the accumulated fund; we then adopt optimization programming to find a asset allocation strategy that fits the fund management target. Two kinds of investors are explored. The first one is an investment manager who manages a general portfolio of life insurance policies, and the second one is an employee who starts his career life in a DC pension plan. We also survey the longevity risk issue in this thesis. In the study of “optimal asset allocation for a general portfolio of life insurance policies”, two kinds of rebalancing methodologies are examined. For constant rebalance rule, which is applicable to a continuing business line, we find an efficient frontier in the mean-standard deviation plot that occurs with arbitrary policy portfolios. Also, the insurance company should hold more cash to reduce its illiquidity risk for portfolios in which policies will mature at earlier dates. In the study of “optimal asset allocation incorporating longevity risk in defined contribution pension plans”, we confirm the suitability of the lifestyle investment strategy. Investors in a DC pension plan should be more aggressive when he considers the longevity risk. Furthermore, we proposed a time adjustment technique to capture mortality predictions more precisely in this study. The approach of decision making of this thesis is referred to anticipative model, which does not consider the possible feedback from the future information. On the other hand, the approach of decision making that consider the possible feedback from the future information is referred to adaptive model. We further compare the two approached in the study “Comparative efficiency- anticipative model versus adaptive model”. The numerical results show that investors would not prefer the adaptive approach to the anticipative approach in the mean-variance criterion. Moreover, the downside risk is larger when the strategy is decided by adaptive approach. We also find that the strategy and its numerical distribution of anticipative approach can approximate to that of adapted approach if one re-assesses it at every decision date. Thus, the anticipative approach provides a first approximation on looking for the optimal investment strategy of adaptive model.

本研究著重於分析發行大量長年期利率敏感型契約、高財務槓桿比例的人壽保險業中公司經理人之投資決策，發現台灣壽險業亦存在Canner et al.(1997)提出之資產配置迷思，亦即風險性資產中債券與股票之比率於不同壽險公司間有差異，與共同基金分離理論中陳述之風險態度不同之投資人所持有之債券與股票比率應相同不相符。本文嘗試以Sorensen(1999)提出之擬似動態規劃法(Quasi- dynamic Programming)最適化到期之效用函數，試算經理人於股票及不同到期固定收益債券之最適持有比例。且詳細探討不同風險偏好及投資期限對於壽險公司投資組合之影響。將業主權益之最適投資策略加上負債之複製投資組合成為策略性資產配置結果，並將其與目前台灣壽險公司之資產配置做比較。研究結果顯示： 1.以擬似動態規畫法求得之最適投資組合於不同風險態度下皆為長期債券以及股票。當經理人之風險趨避程度增加時，投資於股票之比例會減少、投資於債券之比例會增加。 2.比較台灣壽險公司之債券與股票配置比例與本研究之結果發現，本資公司之風險態度較外資公司積極，本資公司應提高其債券之持有比例。 本研究最後以Bajeux-Besnainou et al. (2001)提出之資產配置迷思解釋說明本資公司與外資公司持有之債券與股票比率之所以不同非因資產配置迷思之存在，本資公司與外資公司於風險性資產中持有之債券與股票比率是相同的，但因風險態度較為趨避之公司，投資於風險性資產比率下降、提高避險部位之配置，導致整體之股票與債券比率增加。 關鍵字：資產負債管理、策略性資產配置、擬似動態規劃法。

近年來，由於醫學技術進步使世界各國人民帄均壽命延長，加上通貨膨脹的影響，使得老年人在退休時是否擁有充足的財富來因應生活支出成為退休規劃中的重要議題。而由於年金兩難(Annuity Puzzle)的問題，個人積蓄在退休時點就立即用於購買年金保險是否為一個好的退休規劃仍有待考慮。故本文中提出遞延購買年金策略，退休人可考慮進行自我資產配置一段期間後再年金化，並進一步分析資產配置期間長度改變或消費水準改變時的影響。 本文為退休者建立兩種效用函數，第一種為未來單一時點之效用、第二種為多期折現之加總效用，並分別探討由各效用求出的退休後最適資產配置。本文並參考Lee, Yung-Tsung (2009)推導出兩效用函數之理論值，以取代模擬值，並利用格子點分析縮小求解的範圍。 第一種效用關注於每一給定的未來時點上，我們可用於推估最佳年金化時點及其資產配置。由類似mean-variance的形式組成此效用函數，並考慮隨年紀增長而提高風險趨避程度。令最適投資之效用與一完全購買年金者之帳戶價值於各個時點上相比，便可決定何時為最佳年金化時點。我們並分析不同風險態度的退休者的結果，越風險趨避者越適宜較早年金化。 第二種效用則先決定資產配置計畫的長度，所求得之最適投資將考慮到計畫過程中的要求，而非只有最後一點的目標。我們將分析資產配置計畫過程中、不同計畫長度下，以及不同消費水準時最適投資比例的變化。 兩種效用函數下皆有採用Regular Rebalance及Multiple Period Rebalance的投資策略。Multiple Period Rebalance並未明顯帶來更好的效用，因此選擇以Regular Rebalance進行各項參數敏感度的格子點分析。 / When people retire, purchasing the annuity insurances using their retirement fund is one way against the longevity risk. However, it has some shortcoming; the annual payment may be insufficient for daily life consumption, can’t be adjusted for any urgent need (liquidity risk), and moreover, if the policyholders unfortunately pass away early, they couldn’t leave the rest policy account value as bequest. Under these considerations, many people won’t purchase the annuity insurances right away at retirement; they can do their consumption choices and do asset allocation at the mean time like as ―self-annuitization‖(the ―investment/consumption plan‖, 2006, Gerrard, Haberman and Vigna), and then convert their portfolios into annuity pension on an adequate moment post-retirement to solve the longevity problem. This paper constructs two kinds of retiree’s utility functions according a time-series of safety level. The first one focuses on one future timing, and we use it to investigate the adequate annuitization timing. The more risk taker a retiree is, the later he annuitizes. The second one summarizes the utilities each timing during a period after retirement, and we use it to analysis the sensitivities for the optimal asset allocation. Both of the two analyses are discussed under two investment strategies, regular rebalance and multiple-period rebalance.