本文運用模擬的方法，產生產險業所面臨的損失分佈、投資資產的變動，欲得到最好的資產配置比例，並考慮重新平衡的效果，探討何種方法為產險業最好的資金運用策略。在模擬了1,000次，產生未來23年的年末資產負債表後，我們得到產險公司應如何配置其資金於：現金、股票、1-15年期債券及房地產的比例，加入重新平衡的概念，運用目標方程式的建立，最後得到一個最好的資金配置及平衡策略。 / We applied simulation techniques to imitate some situations that insurance companies have handled, including loss development, asset value variations, and dynamic programming asset allocation. The asset allocation ratios and the timing of rebalancing the assets affected our objective outcomes. After simulating 23 years for 1,000 times, we find how insurance company allocates their capital in four accounts: cash, stock, fifteen kinds of maturity bonds, and real estate. We finally pointed out strategy resulted in the best outcome by comparing between single period optimal asset allocating ratios and rebalanced asset allocation ratio outcomes.

本研究旨在探討國內三大電子商務網站之商品展示頁面的版面配置與瀏覽動線之間的關係，藉由眼動追蹤儀器實驗(Eye Movement Tracking)及專家訪談的結果，歸納出最後的結論與建議方向，並作為未來實務界在設計與規劃電子商務網站時的參考依據。 在實驗研究中，共分為兩個階段進行測試，由23位受測者進行觀看，有效樣本20人。實驗一主要是測試三家電子商務網站的商品瀏覽效率。透過實驗找出哪一家的商品版面配置與動線規劃，可以讓使用者在短時間內快速地找到所要的商品以及在找尋商品的過程中，受測者的凝視焦點分佈與凝視停留時間為何。 而實驗二的部份，則是測試商品的版面配置情形。主要是操弄三家網站之不同的商品配置特性，測試不同的商品配置特性對使用者的視覺焦點(Fixation Count)與停留時間(Fixation Time)所產生的變化，試圖瞭解何種商品配置最吸引使用者的目光，讓使用者停留更多的瀏覽時間。 並透過專家訪談法，瞭解業界資深的網頁設計師及網站規劃者他們對於電子商務網站之商品展示頁的版面配置與使用者瀏覽動線的看法與建議，以及在規劃及設計自家電子商務網站時的構思想法，最後將訪談資料以內容分析法予以歸納分析，供業界在執行電子商務網站實務設計時之參考依據。 / This study aims to investigate the relationship between the layout and browsing routes for merchandise display pages on Taiwan’s three major e-commerce websites, as ascertained by results from eye tracking experiments and expert interviews. The study offers some overall conclusions and suggestions which may serve as a reference for future practices in designing and implementing e-commence websites. The experiment was divided into two stages, and included 23 participants whose viewing behavior was recorded; the effective sample pool was 20. The objective of the first test was to examine the merchandise viewing efficacy rendered by these three e-commerce websites. Through this experiment, the website with the merchandise page setup and browsing routes which enabled users to locate their desired merchandise in the shortest time was determined, as well as the samples’ visual fixation distributions and durations. In the second experiment, merchandise page layouts were tested. Different arrangement schemes of merchandise displayed by these same three websites were manipulated to test the effects they have on user eye fixation count and fixation time, in an attempt to understand what type of merchandise display arrangement scheme draws the most attention from viewers and encourages them to spend more viewing time. Expert interviews provided insights and suggestions from skilled web page designers and website builders regarding their perspectives on merchandise display page arrangement and user browsing routes, and in particular, the concepts employed when building their own e-commerce websites. Finally, interview data is introduced and analyzed using content analysis methodology, which may serve as a reference for e-commerce website design practices.

本文延續Huang(2004, 2008)的研究，將單期與多期挹注資金的資產負債管理議題專化於DC確定提撥退休金制度上，其研究將問題化成二次函數，以一般化最小平方法(Generalized least square, GLS)求出具有唯一解特性的決策變數，利用的軟體求解速度相當快，能有效率地一次找出多項資產配置比例。 本研究引入三種投資模型及其薪資模型，分別是Wilkie(1995)模型、MacDonald and Cairns(2007)模型、Huang and Cairns(2006)及Li(2009)，以蒙地卡羅模型模擬出各投資標的年報酬率與薪資水準，並利用這些預期的模擬值在負債目標控制為隨機成長或固定比例成長下，找出最適投資比例、每期挹注的額度與提撥比例。 最適配置為了解決下方風險(downside risk)問題，在允許限定風險容忍度下去最大化投資績效，本研究將目標函數加入衡量報酬項，依據員工希望的報酬，討論此項權重如何最適。亦加入交易成本項以反映實務情況，此投資總交易成本為權重的函數，於足夠支付交易成本的前提下找出權重最小值。 / In this study, the simulation of the return for each investment and wage pattern is via introduction of three investment model and their wage model, namely, Wilkie (1995) model, MacDonald and Cairns (2007) model, Huang and Cairns (2006) model and Li (2009), by using Monte Carlo simulation. The optimal contribution rate of investments, the amount of injection of each period, and income replacement ratio are determined when simulation is targeted in the balance control for the random growth or growth under a fixed rate of liabilities. The asset-liability management of single-period and multi-period injection of funds is specialized in the Defined contribution plan (DC), which is the extension of Huang’s (2004, 2008) study. Huang’s research transforming his argument into a quadratic function to generalized least squares method (GLS) having a unique solution to derive the decision-making variables. This method can efficiently find a set of allocation by software at a fairly rapid speed. The optimal allocation is to maximize investment performance subject to a limited risk had to tolerance for deal with downside risk. This study ameliorates the objective function by adding a constant term, which does not affect the investment decision-making variable. This new generalized least squares method use a constant represented as a weight, which is based on the desire asset of the employee. This study also takes transaction costs into consideration to reflect the practical situation. The total transaction costs are the function of the weight introduced into the new objective function. The minimum of weight can be reached when the goal is set to be sufficient to cover the transaction costs

由於資訊科技的進步，網頁資訊更豐富與複雜，本研究從兩方面，一方面找出複雜的網頁是如何被使用者所認知？另一方面網頁介面設計的好不好？該如何設計才能降低網頁資訊的複雜度使其更易讀的方法。若網站介面設計能搭配使用者的認知，將有助網站設計出能降低複雜度又易讀的網頁，幫助使用者完成任務。因此，研究目的為瀏覽者是如何知覺與認知複雜的網頁？網頁介面的版面配置設計的好不好？研究問題為腦中模版是否影響網頁瀏覽？找出降低資訊複雜度的螢幕設計的原則？ 本研究分別設計四個實驗驗證四個假設，實驗一的目的是驗證使用者腦中模板對資訊選擇有影響。方法是比較實驗未進行前，瀏覽者大腦中所認知的電子商務網頁配置概圖，得到瀏覽者腦中既有的模板是什麼，再進行選擇注意實驗，比較瀏覽者畫出來電子商務網站的回憶圖與未進行實驗前的模板間的一致性。結論為模板與實際組的卡方值均為不顯著，因此，可以得知瀏覽者瀏覽電子商務網站時腦中的模板確實影響網頁選擇注意。 實驗二的目的是驗證使用者因為任務需要不同資訊的選擇策略對造成其網頁的認知不同；方法是實驗中透過使用者進行搜尋的任務中，根據其瀏覽策略將搜尋任務第一頁的瀏覽與最後一頁不同的瀏覽目標，因要達成的選擇策略不同所以其選擇注意不同。結論為第一頁與最後一頁的的瀏覽分析可以得知不同資訊的選擇策略將影響網頁介面的螢幕配置認知。 實驗三的目的螢幕配置會影響選擇注意。方法計算文獻整理的六個指標的理論值之後，實証為讓使用者到四個國家的yahoo網頁進行任務，會因網頁配置不同，影響使用者對四個不同國家的yahoo網頁的認知選擇注意不同。結論為四個國家卡方值為顯著，表示四個國家的介面配置不同確實會影響不同的選擇注意。 實驗四的目的証明網頁設計易讀性理論值與實證的順序是相同的。方法計算文獻整理的六個指標的理論值之後，實証為將四個日韓台美不同的yahoo網頁的配置，兩個為一組，分六組進行實驗，以了解四個國家網頁哪個配置讓瀏覽者較容易閱讀。結論為理論的順序：日(0.099)>美(0.095)>台(0.086)>韓(0.078)；實證的順序：美>日>台>韓；日美優於台韓故順序一致。 根據實驗的結論，我們知道使用者面對複雜的網頁資訊時，會根據腦中的模版來分析與過濾網頁上面的資訊，而且瀏覽者對於資訊的選擇確實會影響網頁螢幕的配置像對空白與色彩..等的差異，並且根據文獻找出的指標確實與實際狀況符合。所以，建議設計師在網頁layout設計，要按照使用者的工作任務經驗，及各工作任務的可能模版特質來設計資訊呈現內容。並根據六個整理出來的指標列為參考的網頁設計元素，將元素差異及元素關係的因素，如資訊在畫面上的位置、形成區塊的空白、框線、對比顏色、文字大小，以及關鍵詞等因素善加運用，按照工作任務性質，做適當安排。將有效降低使用者認知複雜度達成任務。 / Due to the fast growth of information technology, website information has become richer and more complex, and this piece of research will target on two main related areas. One is to find out how those complicated webpage were cognized by their users? The other is to discuss whether if the existing webpage interface design is good or not, and how webpage information should be designed in order to reduce its complicity and make it easier to read. If the webpage interface is able to collocate with users’ cognition, it will help websites to create webpage with low complicity and ease of read, and thereby assisting users to complete their missions. Therefore, the research aim would be to understand how browsers sense and perceive webpage and its complicity. Is the interface and layout design suitable for such webpage? In addition, the key question is to ask if internet browsing would be affected by our brain templates, and to further find out the principles for low information complicity screen design. The research body consists of four experiments which are set to prove 4 hypotheses. First experiment is to prove that users’ brain templates have effects on the choices of information. The main method is to obtain the e-commerce webpage layout from browsers’ brain before carrying out any further tasks, and see what the initial templates look like. And then by taking the selective attention tests, to compare the similarity between the memorial mappings of the e-commerce website with the initial template. The result has shown that the chi-square values between template and real group are both not significant, therefore, it is predicted that when users are browsing e-commerce websites, the brain templates do have effects on webpage selective attention. Experiment two aims to examine if differences in webpage cognition occur as users could have various choices of information due to different needs. When users browse the internet, because of the targets change, the strategies used in first page and last page also differs, and so does the selective attention. To conclude, from the first and last pages browsing analysis we can know that different information choice strategies will have impacts on the webpage interface layout. Third experiment focuses on the display layout which affects selective attentions. By calculating six theoretical values from indicators in literature reviews, and in order to prove the theory users are asked to carry out missions on Yahoo! websites in four countries, and because the webpage layouts are different, the users’ selective attentions also varies in these four countries. The chi-square values of the four countries are significant, which means different webpage layout will alter selective attentions. The last one proves that the theoretical values of legibility in webpage design are proportional to the case studies. In order to understand which Yahoo! website is the easiest to read out of these four countries, they were divided into groups of two and carried out six sets of experiments. Theoretical result shows that Japan (0.099)>US (0.095)>Taiwan (0.086)>Korea (0.078), where practical result shows US>Japan>Taiwan>Korea, and therefore both proved that US and Japan are better than Taiwan and Korea. According to the results of experiments, we can know that when users face complex web information, they tend to use the templates created in their brain to analyze and filter those information, and the choices of information that browsers made do affect webpage and screen layout, such as different spacing and coloring; which just corresponds with our literature indications. Hence, when designing webpage layout, designers are recommended to demonstrate the content by following users’ actual experiences, plus some possible behaviors under different work and mission conditions. In addition, the six indicators should also be used as design references, and key factors such as the positioning of information, spacing, bordering, contrast, font sizes and keywords should also be taken into consideration in order to make appropriate arrangement to suit different work properties, which will lower the cognition complicity for users effectively, and thereby fulfill its tasks.

近年來隨著人口往都市集中，且高房價的時代來臨，導致生活空間更形狹小，而在狹小的生活空間中，桌子扮演了各式日常活動不可或缺的角色，不同種類、大小、高低的桌子輔助人們從事不同活動。其中，工作桌為使用情境最複雜的桌面環境，工作桌使用情境多卻又受限於狹小桌面環境，易導致工作空間不足、桌面堆滿許多物品。堆積雜亂的物品不但影響工作效率，在從事特定活動時看到不相干的物品，也會對使用者的情緒產生影響，干擾思緒。此外，放置在桌上的物品數量越多，重配置就越困難，所以無形中也限縮了使用者對桌面空間配置權。基於上述的觀察，本論文提出「FairyBox」桌上型智慧容器概念與原形實作，此裝置讓使用者將不同活動會用到的物品放在不同的容器中，從事特定活動時，配置相關物品的容器，並依照自己的喜好放置於桌面特定位置。這些容器將記得使用者所放置的位置，在往後從事該活動時，自動行進到桌面上的固定位置，類似桌面上的自走車。透過「FairyBox」，即使在狹小桌面從事多種活動，也可以避免影響情緒與專注力，並重拾對桌面的配置權，打造客製化的理想桌面空間。 / The workspace is one of the most complicated spaces in a living environment. One that works in a small workspace typically use a small table to handle tasks and activities. Thus, objects spread over the table in short time. Because objects arouse emotions, one’s thinking often interferes when a user observes many irrelevant objects spread on the table. Moreover, human creativity and efficiency are usually restricted because of the losing of the right of deploying things. This study aims to develop a device called “FairyBox,” which is a customizable personal desktop container. A user can put the objects into the FairyBox. Before a user is going to perform an activity, needing some objects previously placed in the FairyBox, the user just deploys FairyBox on the table wherever one wants. Then, when the activity is performed, the FairyBox goes to the deployed location autonomously. Using FairyBox, the user has more space when performing the activities in the workspace and thus is more focused on the activities.

近年創新研發相關文獻指出創新政策可能因政策不一致性及資源被不適任者所佔有等因素而宣告失敗。其中「資源錯置」此議題乃最為大眾所關注，因此本研究採用Hsieh and Klenow（2009）的資源配置效率模型以檢視台灣兩大科技計畫─「法人科專計畫」與「科技部計畫」是否有資源錯置之情事，以確保我國科技計畫之成效。結果指出，科技部計畫之資源配置效率相對於法人科專計畫較為不穩定，主因為科技部計畫執行機構多為學術型機構，其專利產值較易浮動。研究後續進一步分析兩大計畫底下各機構之扭曲程度。法人科專部份，工研院長期為正向扭曲，中科院則長期為負向扭曲，其正負之差異源自於機構的研發屬性不同；科技部計畫部份，各機構扭曲程度波動較大，乃受到機構研究目的與發表形式差異所導致。本文受限於利用專利作為產出衡量，無法提供科技部計畫全面性的評估觀點。未來若能納入人文社會科學領域且綜合其他學術指標做為產出衡量，將能提供更完整的科技部計畫資源配置效率分析，提供更精確之政策建議。 / Past literature has sounded an alarm to the failure of innovation and warned that policy inconsistency and misallocated innovation inputs as two major reasons to fail innovation. Since Taiwanese government had consistent support over research and development via policy support, this research has focused on the issues of innovation input distortions. In this thesis, the "Technology Development Program (TDP)" supported by Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) as well as endowment projects financed by Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) are utilized as the research target to investigate the innovation efficiency. The results in this research suggest that TDP has stably higher performance than the MOST-financed projects. TDP projects are executed as more business-related uses while MOST-financed projects usually focus more on the fundamental technological breakthroughs. Besides, the results also suggest that the innovation objectives set by different institutions are crucial to the current innovation efficiency measure. For example, the TDP projects executed by Industrial Technology Research Institute, a commercial technology developer, record less distortions than other TDP projects granted to other institutions responsible for national defense development. This would shed light on the more aligned innovation objective setup and the following innovation resource allocation.

不同評估績效的長短顯著地影響基金的經營策略，相較於強調穩健經營的退休基金而言，此因素是否亦影響退休基金的運作，本研究嘗試應用隨機控制理論，將投資績效的時間因素納入決策考量，以隨機微分方程式描述退休基金資產和應計負債的動態隨機行為，以多期基金規劃的觀點，探討時間因素與最適策略之關連性。本研究應用Brennan、Schwartz與Lagnado（1997）的結果至負債導向的退休基金管理，建構多期資產負債管理模型，退休基金持有資產將分類為風險性的股票投資組合、長期債券和短期票券，並考量投資標的短期利率與長期利率之隨機性質，將基金提撥與資產配置視為可調節因子，給定風險評估測度，於不設定投資限制下計算各期最適投資比例及基金提撥；本研究並以私人退休金個案進行模擬分析，結果顯示此基金未來10年之最適提撥率介於4.2﹪與5.1﹪，就不同評估期限而言，5年評估期之提撥率於初期高於10年評估期，基金比率η=0.75之提撥率低於η=1；5年評估期之基金交易行為較10年期明顯劇烈，基金比率較低時，其交易變化程度較小，不同評估年限與基金比率將同時影響退休基金之最適提撥與投資策略。 / Distinct time horizons in measuring investment perfomance significantly influence the financial planning for the money managers. In this study, we explore this issue concerning the pension fund management that has focused on the asset and liability management to meet its future obligations. A stochastic control model is formulated in a continuous-time framework to obtain the closed form solution for optimal strategy. The time variation in expected returns introduced in Brennan, Schwartz and Lagnado（1997）is adopted in obtaining the optimal strategy using plausible future plan’s normal costs and accrued liabilities under distinct time horizons. Based on the proposed performance measurement, the optimal funding schedule and portfolio selections are determined dynamically without trading restrictions. A private pension scheme is selected and analyzed for numerical illustration. It shows that the optimal contribution rates are between 4.2﹪and 5.1﹪for this specific case. Comparing the funding schedules for distinct time horizons, we find that the contribution rates under 5-year period are higher than those under 10-year period in the beginning. The contribution rates given funding ratio at 75﹪are lower than those given at 100﹪. While the optimal trading behaviors of the pension fund managers for 5-year period are significant volatile than those for 10-year period. Their optimal trading behaviors have exhibited a reduced volatility under the lower funding ratios. The case study indicates that the distinct time horizon and the funding ratio play crucial roles in decision-making process for pension fund management.

中央對地方干預的工具包括利用強制性責任(Mandate)來賦予地方政府執行某些政策的責任，或者也可能利用補助制度來干預。近年來，各國聯邦或中央政府預算赤字的惡化，促使其利用強制性責任方式，將財政責任及負擔轉移給下級政府，以降低赤字及負債。此種由中央將財政成本移轉給地方負擔的強制性責任，我們稱之為「無財源提供之強制性責任(unfunded mandates)」。 無財源提供之強制性責任主要問題的核心在於：「融通(funding)」--成本應由誰負擔，以及「強制性的命令」--應由何層級的政府來作決策，中央（聯邦）政府抑或地方政府。針對中央強制性責任是否應給予地方財源融通，研究顯示，在地方存在淨利益外溢問題時，中央利用強制性責任來矯正此配置扭曲現象，不論是否給予地方財政上的融通，均能使資源達成有效配置。根據效率與公平原則，利用中央強制性責任來矯正淨利外溢的問題時，中央應給予地方財政上的融通。反之，若地方存在淨外部成本問題時，根據效率與公平原則，利用中央強制性責任來矯正此問題時，中央則不應給予地方財政上的融通。若中央以強制性責任來強制規定全國最低施行標準時，基於公平與效率原則，中央應給予地方財政上的融通。 在一國存在二級政府的制度下，若中央基於財政困難之因素，強制的將此負擔移轉給地方，可能會影響人民所可享受的最適公共財及私有財水準，在特定條件下，將使人民福利水準降低。理論上，均衡時中央與地方所提供的每單位公共財所帶給人民的邊際效用應相等，中央應自行負擔所提供之公共財所有財源。 有關強制性責任所造成的財政成本負擔，以台灣省為例，中央強制性責任確實對地方財政產生影響，且實證結果顯示，有些強制性責任將部分的財政負擔移轉由地方政府負擔缺乏理論上的依據，例如全民健康保險法及老年農民福利津貼暫行條例。由此可看出，在我國中央政府財政赤字趨於嚴重的同時，似乎有利用強制性的財政移轉來降低中央赤字的現象。但是中央政府卻忽略了此種財政負擔移轉的合法性、經濟性與公平性。

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訳：三根慎二