Submitted by Marilene Donadel (marilene.donadel@unioeste.br) on 2018-10-26T17:11:31Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcel_Colling_2018.pdf: 3237401 bytes, checksum: 68655056331b4b1d08a0e7fce8b15c37 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-10-26T17:11:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcel_Colling_2018.pdf: 3237401 bytes, checksum: 68655056331b4b1d08a0e7fce8b15c37 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-14 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Behavioral economics has recently been gaining more space in academic studies. The theories based on the rationality of the actors have given place to studies that contemplate their cognitive systems, ways of thinking and emotions. In this context, recent studies in the area of knowledge economy have approached the behavioral framework to analyze the performance and influence of institutions in organizations and vice versa. It occurs that in the relations between different groups in a region, the cognitions of the actors are susceptible to dissonances between beliefs and attitudes. Such imbalances are mitigated by the use of cognitive biases. The influence of these dissonances and biases in the relations between groups in the regional development is the theme addressed in this work. In this perspective, the objective of this dissertation is to analyze the influence and impacts of cognitive dissonance in the relations between the groups of local actors represented by the Government, University and Companies in the Western Region of the State of Parana in view of the knowledge economy. The question that has been sought to answer is how these cognitive processes can represent barriers to a broader understanding by groups about their role in the region in a development context. In order to answer these questions, the present work has proposed to: characterize the Western Region of the State of Parana and the selected municipalities (Cascavel, Toledo, Foz do Iguaçu, Marechal Cândido Rondon, Palotina and Medianeira) according to the relational approaches of the knowledge economy; research the beliefs of local actors representing government, university, and business with a view to the occurrence of cognitive dissonances between beliefs; study the attitudes of each group of local actors regarding the relational aspects addressed by the knowledge economy in terms of cognitive biases and subcategories of dissonance; and explain the reduction or elimination of cognitive dissonance and the use of heuristics and biases in an integrated way by local actors when considering the relations between the different groups. The methodology used was quantitative and qualitative. Initially data were collected regarding Gross Added Value; Number of establishments per activity; Number of jobs per activity; Municipal expenses by function; HDI; Number of public universities; Number of enrollments and graduates in public higher education; Associations formed by groups; Municipal councils. Then, data obtained through questionnaires were analyzed using the methods of Mean Analysis, Pearson Correlations and Stepwise Regression. The next step was the analysis of qualitative data obtained by semi-structured interviews using discourse analysis according to subcategories of cognitive dissonance and cognitive bias. Finally, quantitative and qualitative data were systematically compared according to the subcategories of cognitive dissonance and cognitive bias. The research results showed that, in fact, there are a number of cognitive barriers caused by the heuristics and biases in the three groups. Such barriers prevent them from thinking about innovative ways of institutional action and relational environment so that it hinders the development of the West region of Parana oriented to the knowledge economy. / A economia comportamental recentemente vem ganhando mais espaço no meio acadêmico. As teorias pautadas na racionalidade dos atores têm dado lugar a estudos que contemplam seus sistemas cognitivos, formas de pensar e emoções. Nesse contexto, os recentes estudos na área da economia do conhecimento têm se aproximado do arcabouço comportamental para analisar a atuação e influência das instituições nas organizações e vice-versa. Ocorre que nas relações entre diferentes grupos em uma região, as cognições dos atores são suscetíveis a dissonâncias entre crenças e atitudes. Tais desequilíbrios são amenizados pela utilização de vieses cognitivos. A influência dessas dissonâncias e vieses nas relações entre grupos para o desenvolvimento regional é o tema tratado neste trabalho. Nessa perspectiva, o objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a influência e os impactos da dissonância cognitiva nas relações entre os atores locais dos grupos Governo, Universidade e Empresa na Região Oeste do Estado do Paraná tendo em vista a economia do conhecimento. A pergunta que se buscou responder é como esses processos cognitivos podem representar barreiras para uma compreensão mais ampla por parte dos grupos a respeito de seu papel na região em um contexto de desenvolvimento. A fim de responder a esses questionamentos, o presente trabalho se propôs a caracterizar a Região Oeste do Estado do Paraná e os municípios selecionados (Cascavel, Toledo, Foz do Iguaçu, Marechal Cândido Rondon, Palotina e Medianeira) de acordo com as abordagens relacionais da economia do conhecimento; pesquisar as crenças dos atores locais que representam governo, universidade e empresas com vistas à ocorrência de dissonâncias cognitivas entre crenças; estudar as atitudes de cada grupo de atores locais em relação aos aspectos relacionais abordados pela economia do conhecimento em termos de vieses cognitivos e subcategorias de dissonância; e explicar a redução ou eliminação da dissonância cognitiva e a utilização de heurísticas e vieses de maneira integrada por parte dos atores locais quando consideram as relações entre os diferentes grupos. A metodologia utilizada foi quantitativa e qualitativa. Inicialmente, foram levantados dados referentes ao Valor Adicionado Bruto; Quantidade de estabelecimentos por atividade; Quantidade de empregos por atividade; Despesas municipais por função; IDH; Total de universidades públicas; Quantidade de matrículas e de concluintes no ensino superior público; Associações formadas pelos grupos; Conselhos municipais. Em seguida, foram analisados dados obtidos por meio de questionários com os métodos de Análise de média, Correlações de Pearson e Regressão stepwise. O próximo passo foi a análise dos dados qualitativos levantados por entrevistas semiestruturadas utilizando análise de discurso de acordo com as subcategorias de dissonância cognitiva e vieses cognitivos. Por fim, os dados quantitativos e qualitativos foram comparados sistematicamente de acordo com as subcategorias de dissonância cognitiva e vieses cognitivos. Os resultados da pesquisa mostraram que, de fato, há uma série de barreiras cognitivas causadas pelas heurísticas e vieses presentes nos grupos. Tais barreiras os impedem de pensar em formas de inovação das instituições e do ambiente relacional para que o desenvolvimento da região Oeste do Paraná possa ser orientado para a economia do conhecimento.

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Dark Patterns är designmönster som används av företag i syfte att manipulera användare till att fatta beslut som de möjligtvis inte hade gjort annars och som inte gynnar deras egna intressen. Den här studien undersöker användarens upplevelse och perspektiv på dark patterns på en onlineresebyrås hemsida där dark patterns används flitigt. Dark patterns använder sig ofta av kognitiva biaser som utnyttjas hos användaren för att styra användaren till att fatta beslut som användaren inte hade avsikt att fatta, och som till följd kan påverka individens välfärd negativt. Dessa designmönster blir allt mer förekommande inom e-handeln, vilket väcker frågan hur etiskt användningen av dark patterns är. I dagsläget finns inga regelverk i Sverige som specifikt gäller användningen av dark patterns, däremot finns det regelverk som berör dark patterns, exempelvis de riktlinjer som den Europeiska dataskyddsstyrelsen har tagit fram gällande användandet av deceptive patterns samt Europaparlamentets direktiv om otillbörliga affärsmetoder. Forskningsfrågorna som ligger till grund för denna studie är: “Hur upplever internetanvändare dark patterns på onlineresebyråers hemsidor?” och “Hur påverkas användarens attityd gentemot onlineresebyråer som applicerar dark patterns?”. För att försöka svara på frågeställningarna har en kvalitativ kartläggning genomförts med hjälp av semistrukturerade intervjuer. Studien undersöker hur fyra internetanvändare med stor resvana upplever dark patterns på en onlineresebyrås hemsida med hjälp av simulerade bokningsprocesser i form av förinspelade videor. Intervjuerna transkriberades och analyserades med hjälp av tematisk analys. Resultatet visade att deltagarna hade en förståelse att man som användare bör vara försiktig vid bokning av resor för att inte bli lurad. Denna urvalsgrupp betonar att de har vant sig vid ett flertal dark patterns och inte längre reagerar på dem. Däremot upplevdes dark patterns som både något som förhindrar en smidig bokning och som störande moment under bokningen. Studien tyder på att när deltagarna är medvetna om dark patterns upplever de dem också som störande och även oetiska. En överdriven användning av dark patterns verkar även skapa en negativ uppfattning om företag som använder dem. Studien visar även att ett överanvändande av dark patterns kan ha motsatt effekt på vad företagen som implementerar dem hoppas på; att användare snarare upplever negativa känslor som påverkar deras köpbenägenhet negativt. / Dark Patterns are design patterns used by companies to trick users to make decisions that they might otherwise not have done and may not be in the user’s best interest. This study investigates users' experience and perspective on dark patterns on an online travel agency’s website that frequently uses dark patterns. Dark patterns often exploit cognitive biases in the user to steer the user to make decisions that the user might not have intended to make, which could have a negative effect on the user’s welfare. These types of design patterns are becoming more and more common within e-commerce which has sparked the question of ethicality in the use of dark patterns. There are currently no regulations in Sweden that specifically cover dark patterns, but there are regulations that affect dark patterns, such as the guidelines The European Data Protection Board have established on the use of deceptive patterns as well as the European Parliament’s “Unfair Commercial Practices Directive”. The underlying research questions for this study are: “How do internet users experience dark patterns on online travel agencies’ websites?” and “How is the users’ attitude towards online travel agencies that apply dark patterns affected?”. In an effort to answer the research questions a qualitative survey has been done with the help of semi-structured interviews. This study investigates how four internet users perceive dark patterns on an online travel agency’s website with the help of simulated booking processes through pre-recorded videos. The interviews were then transcribed and analyzed through thematic analysis. The results show that the participants had an understanding of the need to be cautious during online travel booking to avoid being tricked or scammed. This selection group emphasizes that they’ve become used to a number of dark patterns and no longer react to them. Dark patterns that hinders a smooth booking are however seen as disruptive elements. This study indicates that the users perceive dark patterns as disruptive and unethical when they’re aware of the dark patterns being used. Excessive use of dark patterns also seems to create a negative perception on the company that uses them. This study also shows that an excessive use of dark patterns could have the opposite effect than desired by the company that implements them; that the user is inflicted by negative feelings that affect the users propensity to purchase negatively.

L’évaluation du risque de récidive et des besoins criminogènes, à l’aide d’instruments actuariels, joue désormais un rôle intégral dans le système de justice canadien. Les résultats à ces évaluations orientent plusieurs décisions concernant la prise en charge correctionnelle, notamment les besoins en matière de traitement et les possibilités de libération. Considérant les implications importantes de ces évaluations, il est primordial de s’assurer de l’impartialité des instruments utilisés, sans quoi il peut être possible de perpétuer la discrimination systémique vécue par certains groupes ethnoculturels. Au Canada, plusieurs études suggèrent que les instruments actuariels sont moins efficaces pour prédire la récidive auprès de contrevenants issus des peuples autochtones. Certains auteurs soutiennent que ces différences dans la capacité prédictive des instruments pourraient être dues à la présence de biais dans l’évaluation. Peu d’études se sont intéressées à l’effet des biais cognitifs des évaluateurs sur le processus d’évaluation. Ainsi, cette étude a pour objectifs d’étudier, d’une part, l’effet de l’identité autochtone et, d’autre part, l’effet des biais cognitifs des évaluateurs sur le processus d’évaluation et les décisions en matière de traitement. Pour ce faire, un devis expérimental assignant aléatoirement 83 participants en criminologie à un Agent Virtuel Autonome (AVA) pouvant prendre la forme d’un adolescent caucasien ou d’un adolescent autochtone a été préconisé. Les personnages sont identiques en tous points sauf en ce qui a trait à leur origine ethnoculturelle. Les participants se sont entretenus avec l’AVA et ont par la suite dû procéder à l’évaluation du risque de récidive et des besoins criminogènes du personnage à l’aide du YLS/CMI et la rédaction d’un rapport d’évaluation détaillant le plan d’intervention qui serait envisagé pour le personnage. Les données ont ensuite été comparées selon l’identité ethnoculturelle du personnage, et des modèles de modération ont été utilisés afin d’évaluer l’effet des biais cognitifs sur le processus d’évaluation selon l’identité ethnoculturelle du personnage. Les résultats mettent de l’avant qu’il existe plusieurs différences dans le processus d’évaluation dépendamment de l’identité autochtone, qui engendrent une évaluation plus sévère de ce dernier, en plus de suggérer que les biais cognitifs des participants les amènent à favoriser le personnage blanc. Les implications pratiques et théoriques de ces résultats sont discutées. / Actuarial assessments of reoffending risk now play an integral role in the Canadian justice system. The results of these assessments guide many correctional management decisions, including treatment needs and opportunities for release. Given the far-reaching implications of these assessments, it is vital to ensure the impartiality of the instruments used, otherwise it may be possible to perpetuate the systemic discrimination experienced by certain ethno-cultural groups. In Canada, several studies suggest that actuarial tools are less effective in predicting recidivism among Aboriginal offenders. Some authors argue that these differences in the predictive capacity of the instruments could be due to the presence of biases in the assessment process. Few studies have investigated the effect of assessors' cognitive biases on the assessment process. Thus, the aims of this study are to investigate, on the one hand, the effect of aboriginal identity and, on the other, the effect of appraisers' cognitive biases on the assessment process and treatment decisions. To this end, an experimental design randomly assigning 83 criminology students to an Autonomous Virtual Agent (AVA) that could take the form of a Caucasian or Aboriginal adolescent was preferred. The characters are identical in all respects except for their ethnocultural origin. Participants interviewed the AVA, assessed the character's risk of recidivism using the YLS/CMI, and wrote an assessment report detailing the intervention plan that would be considered for the character. Data were then compared according to the character's ethno-cultural identity, and moderation models were used to assess the effect of cognitive biases on the assessment process according to the character's ethno-cultural identity. Results suggest that there are several differences in the evaluation process depending on aboriginal identity, leading to a more severe evaluation of the latter, as well as suggesting that participants' cognitive biases led them to favor the white character. The practical and theoretical implications of these results are discussed.

Submitted by Luis Felipe Lopes Martins (lopesmartins.luis@gmail.com) on 2016-01-29T21:26:38Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Regulação da Prev. Compl. Fechada sob a Perspeciva da Econ.pdf: 1574022 bytes, checksum: 838f7519247a9eb766f1fd72df335260 (MD5) / Rejected by BRUNA BARROS (bruna.barros@fgv.br), reason: Favor submeter novamente, pois faltou a ficha catalográfica. on 2016-02-11T17:32:48Z (GMT) / Submitted by Luis Felipe Lopes Martins (lopesmartins.luis@gmail.com) on 2016-02-11T17:50:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Regulação da Prev. Compl. Fechada sob a Perspeciva da Econ. Comportamental - Luis Lopes Martins.pdf: 1600447 bytes, checksum: bda49ea57d8454add667b598daa8a61b (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by BRUNA BARROS (bruna.barros@fgv.br) on 2016-02-16T17:20:53Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Regulação da Prev. Compl. Fechada sob a Perspeciva da Econ. Comportamental - Luis Lopes Martins.pdf: 1600447 bytes, checksum: bda49ea57d8454add667b598daa8a61b (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Almeida (maria.socorro@fgv.br) on 2016-02-16T18:58:50Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Regulação da Prev. Compl. Fechada sob a Perspeciva da Econ. Comportamental - Luis Lopes Martins.pdf: 1600447 bytes, checksum: bda49ea57d8454add667b598daa8a61b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-02-16T18:59:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Regulação da Prev. Compl. Fechada sob a Perspeciva da Econ. Comportamental - Luis Lopes Martins.pdf: 1600447 bytes, checksum: bda49ea57d8454add667b598daa8a61b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-12-15 / The present dissertation looks into the use of measures as the automatic enrolment in the pension funds regulation from the perspective of the loosening of the concept of rationality, based on the Law and Behavional Economics. The work is initiated by the historical evolution of Brazilian pension funds’ regulations. It analyzes the systemic impacts created by changes to the pension pillars, particularly to the first one (public pension). In view of these changes and the increasing relevance of the second pillar (occupational pension) to ensure the welfare, this dissertation aims to analyze the possibility of occurrence of cognitive biases in complementary pensions-related decisions. Those cognitive biases can lead individuals to choose options that do not maximize their welfare, for reasons such as inertia, procrastination and optimism, unlike the predicted by the rationality assumption of the neoclassical economic theory. The outcomes analyzed indicate the necessity of regulatory measures to mitigate these cognitive biases, which should be mainly the adoption of a choice arquitecture that can induce the welfare maximization, without limit the individual freedom of choice. Those measures, however, specially the automatic enrollment, are intended to alleviate the cognitive biases, being censurable its adoption in pension plans with predominance of other reasons to the low levels of enrollment, as distrust in the fund administration. Moreover, is needed to respect certain criteria in the automatic enrollment implementation, in order to ensure that this instrument is used only when cognitive biases that reduce the welfare are observed, as well that the option that people are being nudged to is a gainful option, at least most of the times. At end, it is verified the legality of these measures using the standard of proportionality, which allows to identify the limits to the regulatory intensity. / A presente dissertação investiga a utilização de medidas como a adesão automática pela regulação da previdência complementar fechada a partir da flexibilização do conceito de racionalidade, tendo como base a Análise Econômica e Comportamental do Direito. Inicia-se o trabalho pela evolução histórica da regulação da previdência no Brasil, avaliando os impactos sistêmicos das alterações ocorridas no primeiro pilar previdenciário (regimes básicos). Em virtude dessas alterações e do crescimento da relevância do segundo pilar de previdência social (Previdência Complementar Fechada) para a manutenção do bem-estar, analisa-se a possibilidade de ocorrência de vieses cognitivos que implicam desvios de racionalidade dos indivíduos nas decisões relativas à previdência complementar. Esses vieses cognitivos podem fazer com que indivíduos escolham alternativas que não maximizam seu bem-estar, por razões como inércia, procrastinação e superotimismo, ao contrário do que aponta o pressuposto de racionalidade da Economia Neoclássica. Os resultados analisados conduzem à necessidade de adoção de medidas regulatórias capazes de mitigar esses desvios de racionalidade, na forma de adoção de arquitetura de escolhas que induzam à maximização do bem-estar individual, sem limitar a liberdade individual dos envolvidos. Essas medidas, entretanto, especialmente a adesão automática aos planos de benefícios, destinam-se à mitigação de vieses cognitivos, sendo criticável sua adoção em planos de previdência onde observa-se predominância de outras razões para baixos níveis de adesão, como desconfiança em relação à gestão do plano. Ademais, faz-se necessário respeitar certos critérios para sua implementação, a fim de garantir que esse instrumento somente seja utilizado quando se observar vieses cognitivos que prejudiquem significativamente o bem-estar, bem como que a opção à qual os indivíduos estão sendo induzidos é vantajosa, ao menos na grande maioria das vezes. Ao final, verifica-se a juridicidade dessas medidas, à luz da proporcionalidade, norma que permite identificar os limites para a intensidade regulatória.

Les erreurs récurrentes et systématiques dans les processus de décision stratégique sont fréquentes ; et les théories actuelles des organisations sont insuffisantes pour les expliquer. La « Behavioral Strategy » suggère de lier ces erreurs à la psychologie des décideurs, et notamment à leurs biais cognitifs. Toutefois, cette vision suppose de connecter le niveau d’analyse de l’individu et celui de l’organisation. Nous proposons pour ce faire un niveau « méso », la routine de choix stratégique (RCS), où interagissent la psychologie des décideurs et les décisions stratégiques. Après avoir distingué trois types de RCS, nous formulons des hypothèses d’intervention sur celles-ci visant à prévenir les erreurs stratégiques. Nous illustrons ces hypothèses par six cas pratiques, en testons certaines par une étude quantitative, et analysons les préférences qui conduisent les dirigeants à les adopter ou non. Nous concluons en discutant les implications théoriques et pratiques de notre démarche. / Many types of strategic decisions result in recurring, systematic errors. Extant theories of organizations are insufficient to account for this phenomenon. Behavioral Strategy suggests that an explanation may be found in the psychology of decision makers, and particularly in their cognitive biases. This, however, calls for a link between individual-level cognition and affects, and organization-level choices. We propose “Strategic Choice Routines” as a middle level of analysis to bridge this gap, and identify three broad types of Strategic Choice Routines.This leads us to formulate hypotheses on how Strategic Choice Routines can be modified to minimize strategic errors. We illustrate these hypotheses through case studies; test some of them quantitatively; and analyze preferences that drive their adoption by executives. Finally, we discuss theoretical and managerial implications.

Behavioral operations management (BOM) has gained popularity in the last two decades. The main theme in this new stream of research is to include the human behavior in Operations Management (OM) models to increase the effectiveness of such models. BOM is classified into 4 areas: cognitive psychology, social psychology, group dynamics and system dynamics (Bendoly et al. 2010). This dissertation will focus on the first class, namely cognitive psychology. Cognitive psychology is further classified into heuristics and biases. Tversky and Kahneman (1974) discussed 3 heuristics and 13 cognitive biases that usually face decision makers. This dissertation is going to study 6 cognitive biases under the representativeness heuristic. The model in this dissertation states that cognitive reflection of the individual (Frederick 2005) and training about cognitive biases in the form of warning (Kaufmann and Michel 2009) will help decisions’ makers make less biased decisions. The 6 cognitive biases investigated in this dissertation are insensitivity to prior probability, insensitivity to sample size, misconception of chance, insensitivity to predictability, the illusion of validity and misconception of regression. 6 scenarios in OM contexts have been used in this study. Each scenario corresponds to one cognitive bias. Experimental design has been used as the research tool. To see the impact of training, one group of the participants received the scenarios without training and the other group received them with training. The training consists of a brief description of the cognitive bias as well as an example of the cognitive bias. Cognitive reflection is operationalized using cognitive reflection test (CRT). The survey was distributed to students at University of North Texas (UNT). Logistic regression has been employed to analyze data. The research shows that participants show the cognitive biases proposed by Tversky and Kahneman. Moreover, CRT is significant factor to predict the cognitive bias in two scenarios. Finally, providing training in terms of warning helps participants to make more rational decisions in 4 scenarios. This means that although cognitive biases are inherent in the mind of people, management of corporations has the tool to educate its managers and professionals about such biases which helps companies make more rational decisions.

Sverige är beroende av nystartade företag och entreprenörer för att finansiera landets välstånd. Riskkapitalbolag innehar ofta en betydande roll för de nya företagen när verksamheten ska utvecklas eller expandera. Bolagen assisterar de nya företagen med ett brett spektrum av nyckelaktiviteter som finansiering, operativt arbete, strategi eller kontaktnät. Tidigare studier visar att riskkapitalfinansierade bolag både växer snabbare och lyckas oftare. Samtidigt visar forskningen att riskkapitalbolag präglas av stort risktagande och övermod vid sina investeringar. Emellertid finns mindre djupgående forskning om vilka konkreta faktorer och omständigheter som resulterar i de olika utfallen. Syftet med examensarbetet är att skapa en bättre förståelse för specifika faktorer som påverkar svenska riskkapitalbolags beslutsfattande och resulterar i särskilda utfall. Undersökningen ämnar att betona likheter och skillnader i riskhanteringen av investeringsval mellan riskkapitalbolagen där utfallen antingen resulterar i nytta eller förlust för bolagen. För att uppfylla syftet har institutionella teorin, kognitiva bias och moderna portföljteorin aktualiserats. Undersökningen genomfördes genom intervjuer med beslutsfattare från åtta stycken konfidentiella riskkapitalbolag. Samtliga bolag kodades om för att säkerställa konfidentialitet i syfte att erhålla djupare inblickar i deras investeringsutfall. De erhållna resultaten visar på att framförallt kognitiva bias men även den institutionella teorin förklarade de olika investeringsutfallen väl. Riskkapitalbolagen präglades av stark övermod vid sina misslyckade investeringar och medelstark vid sina lyckade. Riskkapitalbolagen var också starkt påverkade från både extern tryck av samhället men även av interna riktlinjer vid sina investeringar. Flera branschmönster har också kartlagts vid både lyckade och misslyckade investeringar däribland syndikering av kapital, efterfrågan av serieentreprenörer och att det enligt de själva vanligtvis är entreprenören eller marknaden som är anledningen till att investeringen inte lyckas. Resultatet antyder också att en av de största svårigheterna för riskkapitalbolagen är att bedöma entreprenörernas möjligheter att utveckla företaget. Den mest tänkbara anledningen till att riskkapitalbolagen har starka tendenser till övermod är för att det krävs för att lyckas i branschen. Inget nystartat bolag är riskfritt och för att våga investera i branschen behövs stark tilltro till sin egen förmåga. / Sweden is dependent upon start-ups and entrepreneurs in order to successfully finance domestic prosperity. Venture capital (VC) companies often play a significant role for new companies when the business is to be developed or expanded. The VC companies support the new companies with a wide range of key features. Such as financing, operational work, strategy or contact networks. Previous studies show that VC-financed companies both grow faster and succeed more often than non VC-backed companies. At the same time, research shows that VC-companies are characterized by great risk-taking and audaciousness in their investments. However, there is less in-depth research on what explicit factors and circumstances result in the successful and unsuccessful investments. The purpose of the study is to create a better understanding of similarities and differences in different investment outcomes and highlight the patterns of their investments. Institutional theory, cognitive bias and modern portfolio theory are the theories used in this study. The survey was conducted through eight semi-structured qualitative interviews with different decision makers from VC-companies in Sweden. In order to gain a deeper understanding of their investment outcomes all company names were re-coded. The obtained results showed that cognitive biases was the primary theory of explanation. However, the institutional theory could also explain the different investment outcomes. The VC-companies were characterized by strong audaciousness with their failed investments and medium audaciousness with the successful. The requirement of success in the VC-industry explains why the companies have tendencies to be audacious in their decision making. A strong confidence is needed when investing in start-up companies since these companies imply a great risk. External societal pressure and internal guidelines strongly influence the investments of the VC. The study identified several industry patterns for both successful and unsuccessful investments.  The patterns include syndication of capital and demand for serial entrepreneurs. The study also showed a pattern of venture capitalists explaining their unsuccessful investment due to issues with the entrepreneur or the market. The results suggest that one of the greatest difficulties for VC-companies is to assess the ability of the entrepreneur to develop the company.

La plupart des Américains ne sont pas préoccupés par les vaccins. Cependant, minorité petite mais vocale l’est, et un nombre croissant de parents américains reçoivent des exemptions de vaccination pour leurs enfants sur la base de la religion ou de «convictions personnelles». Le refus vaccinal peut avoir des conséquences désastreuses: dans certaines communautés, la couverture vaccinale infantile a plongé bien en deçà du seuil requis pour «l'immunité collective», permettant à des maladies comme la rougeole d'opérer un retour en force. L'hésitation vaccinale et le refus vaccinal sont souvent attribués au manque de connaissances ou de compréhension des « faits » scientifiques des anti-vaccins. La plupart des interventions de santé publique qui visent à promouvoir la vaccination reposent sur la simple diffusion de connaissances scientifiques fiables; la communication scientifique est perçue comme un processus à sens unique de diffusion des connaissances scientifiques. La théorie est la suivante : si les anti-vaccins savaient à quel point les vaccins sont sécuritaires, efficaces et nécessaires, ils vaccineraient davantage. Malheureusement, la littérature dans plusieurs disciplines suggère que de telles interventions d'éducation passive à l'échelle de la communauté sont généralement inefficaces pour persuader les anti-vaccins d'adopter des attitudes et des comportements pro-vaccination. Pourquoi? En m'inspirant des principes de transdisciplinarité d'Edgar Morin, de la théorie des révolutions scientifiques de Thomas Kuhn et de la méthodologie de revue méta-narrative de Trisha Greenhalgh, j'examine les publications de différents auteurs phares de différentes disciplines qui fournissent directement ou indirectement une réponse à cette question. Je distingue trois approches principales, qui diffèrent quant à leur explication générale des raisons pour lesquelles les interventions basées sur la simple diffusion de preuves scientifiques échouent. La première explication est que les anti-vaccins n'ont pas les connaissances scientifiques nécessaires pour comprendre les preuves scientifiques qui leur sont présentées. La deuxième est que la résistance des anti-vaccins aux preuves scientifiques peut s’expliquer par de nombreux biais cognitifs qui anènent les individus à faire des erreurs systématiques de jugement et à s'écarter ainsi de l’idéal décisionnel de la théorie du choix rationnel. Le troisième narratif sur les anti-vaccins met l'accent sur les influences socioculturelles. Selon la théorie de la cognition culturelle, la culture influence les perceptions du risque à travers des biais cognitifs. Ces trois narratifs sur l'hésitation et le refus de la vaccination sont examinés en profondeur afin de fournir une synthèse interdisciplinaire des facteurs qui peuvent expliquer l'échec des interventions de santé publique basées sur l'éducation à persuader les anti-vaccins. / Most Americans are not concerned about vaccines. However, a small but vocal minority is, and a growing number of parents are receiving vaccine mandate exemptions for their children on the basis of religion or “personal belief.” Vaccine refusal can have disastrous consequences: in some communities, childhood vaccination coverage has dived well below the threshold required for “herd immunity,” allowing diseases like measles to stage a forceful comeback. Vaccine hesitancy and refusal are often attributed to a lack of knowledge or lack of understanding of scientific “facts” on the part of antivaxxers. Most public health interventions that aim to promote vaccination rely on disseminating trustworthy scientific knowledge and see science communication as a one-way process of diffusion of scientific evidence. If antivaxxers knew how safe, effective, and necessary vaccines are, the theory goes, they would vaccinate more. Unfortunately, literature across disciplines suggests that such passive, community-wide education interventions are mostly ineffective at persuading antivaxxers to adopt pro-vaccination attitudes and behaviours. Why? Inspired by Edgar Morin’s principles of transdisciplinarity, Thomas Kuhn’s theory of scientific revolutions, and Trisha Greenhalgh’s meta-narrative review methodology, I examine the publications of different seminal authors across disciplines that directly or indirectly provide an answer to this question. I distinguish three main approaches, which differ as to their general explanation of why interventions based on simple dissemination of scientific evidence fail. The first explanation is that antivaxxers lack the scientific literacy that is necessary to understand the scientific evidence that is presented to them. The second is that antivaxxers’ resistance to scientific evidence can be explained by the numerous cognitive biases and “rules of thumb” that lead individuals to make systematic errors in judgment and thus deviate from the rational choice theory decision-making ideal. The third narrative stresses sociocultural influences. According to cultural cognition theory, culture influences risk perceptions through the mechanisms of cognitive biases and heuristics. These three narratives about vaccine hesitancy and refusal are thoroughly examined in order to provide a cross-disciplinary synthesis of factors that may explain the failure of education-based public health interventions to persuade antivaxxers.