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Artificial intelligence as a decision support system in property development and facility management / Artificiell intelligens som beslutstödssystem inom fastighetsutveckling och -förvaltningBerggren, Andreas, Gunnarsson, Martin, Wallin, Johannes January 2021 (has links)
The construction industry has been hesitant for a long time to apply new technologies. In property development, the industry relies heavily on employees bringing experience from one project to another. These employees learn to manage risks in connection with the acquisition of land, but when these people retire, the knowledge disappears. An AI-based decision-support system that takes the risks and the market into account when acquiring land can learn from each project and bring this knowledge into future projects. In facility management, artificial intelligence could increase the efficiency of the allocation of staff in the ongoing operations. The purpose of the study is to analyse how companies in the real estate industry can improve their decision-making with the help of AI in property development and property management. In this study, two case studies of two different players in the real estate industry have been performed. One player, Bygg-Fast, represents property development and the other player, VGR, represents facility management. The study is based on interviews, discussions, and collected data. By mapping and then quantifying the risks and market indicators that are input data in the process, a basis can be created. The data can be used for a model that lays the foundation for an AI-based decision support system that will help the property developer to make calculated decisions in the land acquisition process. By mapping what a flow through a property looks like, measuring points can be set out to analyse how long the activities take in the specific business. These measured values provide a collection of data that makes it easier to plan the activities conducted in the property. A more efficient flow can be achieved by visualizing the entire process so staff can be allocated to the right part of the flow. By being flexible and being able to re-plan the business quickly if planning is disrupted, a high level of efficiency can be achieved. This could be done by an AI-based decision support system that simulates alternative day plans. / Byggbranschen har länge varit tveksamt till att applicera nya tekniker. Inom fastighetsutveckling bygger branschen mycket på att anställda tar med sig erfarenheter från ett projekt till ett annat. Dessa anställda lär sig hantera risker i samband med förvärv av mark men när dessa personer slutar eller går i pension försvinner kunskapen. Ett AI baserat beslutssystem som tar risk och marknad i beaktning vid förvärv av mark kan lära sig av varje projekt och ta med dessa kunskaper till framtida projekt. Inom fastighetsförvaltning skulle artificiell intelligens kunna effektivisera allokerandet av personal i den pågående verksamheten. Syftet med studien är att analysera hur företag i fastighetsbranschen kan förbättra sitt beslutstagande med hjälp av AI i utveckling av fastigheter samt fastighetsförvaltning. I denna studien har två fallstudier av två olika aktörer i fastighetsbranschen utförts. Ena aktören, Bygg-Fast, representerar fastighetsutveckling och den andra aktören, VGR, representerar fastighetsförvaltning. Studien bygger på intervjuer, diskussioner och insamlade data. Genom att kartlägga och sedan kvantifiera de risker samt marknadsindikatorer som är indata i processen kan ett underlag skapas. Underlaget kan användas för en modell som lägger grunden för ett AI baserat beslutsstödsystem som ska hjälpa fastighetsutvecklaren med att ta kalkylerade beslut i mark förvärvsprocessen. Genom att kartlägga hur ett flöde genom en fastighet ser ut kan mätpunkter sättas ut för att analysera hur lång tid aktiviteterna tar i den specifika verksamheten. Dessa mätvärden ger en samlad data som gör det lättare att planera verksamheten som bedrivs i fastigheten. Ett effektivare flöde kan uppnås genom att visualisera hela processen så personal kan allokeras till rätt del av flödet. Genom att vara flexibel och kunna planera om verksamheten snabbt ifall planering störs kan en hög effektivitet nås. Detta skulle kunna göras av ett AI baserat beslutsstödsystem som simulerar alternativa dagsplaneringar.
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Weißeritz-Info - ein internetgestütztes Informations- und Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem für das Flussgebiet der WeißeritzWalz, Ulrich January 2006 (has links)
In diesem Beitrag wird das am Leibniz-Institut für ökologische Raumentwicklung eV. (IÖR) entwickelte Informations- und Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem „Weißeritz-Info“ vorgestellt, das der Aufbereitung und Bereitstellung von Informationen zum Hochwasserrisikomanagement für das Einzugsgebiet der Weißeritz dient. Zielgruppen sind sowohl Bürger und Landnutzer als auch Entscheidungsträger in Kommunen, Behörden und Verbänden. Erstellt wurde das WebGIS-basierte System für die Initiative „Weißeritz-Regio“, einem Verbund von 26 Institutionen, die seit Ende 2003 auf informeller Basis zusammenarbeiten, um die Hochwasservorsorge im Flussgebiet zu verbessern.
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Development of Multiple Linear Regression Model and Rule Based Decision Support System to Improve Supply Chain Management of Road Construction Projects in Disaster RegionsAnwar, Waqas January 2019 (has links)
Supply chain operations of construction industry including road projects in disaster regions
results in exceeding project budget and timelines. In road construction projects, supply chain with
poor performance can affect efficiency and completion time of the project. This is also the case of
the road projects in disaster areas. Disaster areas consider both natural and man-made
disasters. Few examples of disaster zones are; Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Sri Lanka, India,
Japan, Haiti and many other countries with similar environments. The key factors affecting
project performance and execution are insecurity, uncertainties in demand and supply, poor
communication and technology, poor infrastructure, lack of political and government will,
unmotivated organizational staff, restricted accessibility to construction materials, legal hitches,
multiple challenges of hiring labour force and exponential construction rates due to high risk
environment along with multiple other factors. The managers at all tiers are facing challenges of
overrunning time and budget of supply chain operations during planning as well as execution
phase of development projects.
The aim of research is to develop a Multiple Linear Regression Model (MLRM) and a Rule Based
Decision Support System by incorporating various factors affecting supply chain management of
road projects in disaster areas in the order of importance. This knowledge base (KB)
(importance / coefficient of each factor) will assist infrastructure managers (road projects) and
practitioners in disaster regions in decision making to minimize the effect of each factor which will
further help them in project improvement. Conduct of Literature Review in the fields of disaster
areas, supply chain operational environments of road project, statistical techniques, Artificial
Intelligence (AI) and types of research approaches has provided deep insights to the
researchers. An initial questionnaire was developed and distributed amongst participants as pilot
project and consequently results were analysed. The results’ analysis enabled the researcher to
extract key variables impacting supply chain performance of road project. The results of
questionnaire analysis will facilitate development of Multiple Linear Regression Model, which will
eventually be verified and validated with real data from actual environments. The development of
Multiple Linear Regression Model and Rule Based Decision Support System incorporating all
factors which affect supply chain performance of road projects in disastrous regions is the most
vital contribution to the research. The significance and novelty of this research is the
methodology developed that is the integration of those different methods which will be employed
to measure the SCM performance of road projects in disaster areas.
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Using KPIs in decision-making tools in the construction industryHedin, Nathalie, Zander, Adrian January 2019 (has links)
The construction industry has a great opportunity to streamline its operations even more by making greater use of the digital revolution. The industry today uses a lot of manual data management and analysis to get an overview of the business and to make decisions. This can be a time-consuming process that could be made more efficient through Business Intelligence (BI). BI is a technology that automatically, with the help of selected Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), shows the current status of how a business performs. This can allow managers and executives to make decisions easier and faster.This study examines which KPIs that are of common interest to companies and organizations in the construction industry as well as how these KPIs can be presented to the end users of a BI application. To investigate this, data is collected through literature studies and interviews, which results in a list of common KPIs for the industry. From this common list, a number of KPIs are selected to be visually represented.An analysis of the results, indicates that KPIs are of different importance and relevance depending on which sector of the construction industry the interviewee belongs to. There also appears to be sector-specific KPIs and the common list suggests that the profit margin is of great importance throughout the whole industry. KPIs can be represented in different types of charts and diagrams, depending on the purpose they hold, and should be designed so that they are intuitive and easy to understand. / Bygg- och hantverksbranschen har stor möjlighet att effektivisera sin verksamhet ännu mer genom att i större utsträckning utnyttja den digitaliserade utvecklingen. Branschen använder idag mycket manuell datahantering och manuell dataanalys för att få en överblick över verksamheten och ta beslut. Detta kan vara en tidskrävande process, som skulle kunna effektiviseras ytterligare genom Business Intelligence (BI). BI är en teknologi som automatiskt, med hjälp av valda nyckeltal (KPI:er), visar aktuell status på hur en verksamhet presterar. Detta kan göra att beslutsfattare kan fatta beslut enklare och snabbare.Denna studie undersöker vilka nyckeltal som är av gemensamt intresse för företag och organisationer i byggoch hantverksbranschen samt hur dessa nyckeltal kan presenteras för slutanvändarna av en BI-applikation. För att ta reda på detta samlas data in genom litteraturstudier och intervjuer, vilket resulterar i en lista över gemensamma KPI:er i branchen. Ur denna lista handplockas ett antal nyckeltal ut för att representeras visuellt.En analys av resultaten indikerar att nyckeltal är av olika vikt och relevans, beroende på vilken sektortillhörighet av byggoch hantverksbranschen den intervjuade tillhör. Det verkar även finnas sektorspecifika KPI:er samt att listan med de branchgemensamma nyckeltalen antyder att vinstmarginal är av stor vikt. KPI:er kan representeras i olika typer av diagram beroende på vilket syfte de innehar och bör designas så att de är intuitiva och lättförståeliga.
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Evaluating the effects of resource allocations in hospital emergency departments by patient flow analysis / Utvärdering av resursallokering i akutsjukvård genom patientflödesanalysMaråk, Rasmus, Danielson, Oscar January 2021 (has links)
Accounting for some the highest arrival rates and widest varieties of medical conditions in a hospital, the emergency department is highly dependent on efficient operations strategies in order to function effectively and provide qualitative health care. This is especially true for the emergency department of Karolinska University Hospital in Huddinge from which real patient data has been obtained. In attempting to improve service levels, current operational structures are evaluated and several different scenarios are simulated mathematically in this study. After validating the adequacy of modeling the emergency department as a Jackson Network, the network is simulated for various combinations of patient flow parameters enabling the study of the effects of resource allocation strategies. The results indicate that the current organization of, and resources available to, the emergency department leaves room for improvement in terms of service levels. Resource levels needed for specific target levels of service are found and the optimal allocations of resources is discussed. Additionally, a brief literature review of operations strategies and how simulation tools can serve as decision support systems for operations strategy managers is conducted. / Akutmottagningen är en av de avdelningar på ett sjukhus som utsätts för högst ankomstintensiteter och bredast variationer av besöksorsaker vilket orsakar höga krav på att utveckla effektiva verksamhetsstrategier för att upprätthålla en kvalitativ sjukvård. Akutmottagningen på Karolinska Universitetssjukhuset i Huddinge har studerats genom patientdata. För att försöka förbättra servicenivåer och förkorta väntetider för patienter utvärderas verksamhetens organisation och struktur. En matematisk modell av verksamhetens organisation konstrueras och valideras, varefter effekterna av olika resursallokeringar analyseras genom matematiska simuleringar. Resultaten visar på att akutvården som den är organiserad idag lämnar utrymme för förbättring och optimering av resursallokering. Genom matematiska simuleringar identifieras marginella resursers specifika servicenivåer och relativa förändringar i servicenivåer. Slutligen kompletteras den matematiska analysen med en kortare litteraturstudie. Här presenteras hur simuleringar kan utgöra beslutsstödsystem för att planera resursallokering och introducera lean-strategier i sjukvården.
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A Team-Compatibility Decision Support System to Model the NFL Knapsack Problem: An Introduction to HEARTYoung, William Albert, II 05 August 2010 (has links)
No description available.
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A FRAMEWORK FOR IMPROVED DATA FLOW AND INTEROPERABILITY THROUGH DATA STRUCTURES, AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM MODELS, AND DECISION SUPPORT TOOLSSamuel A Noel (13171302) 28 July 2022 (has links)
<p>The agricultural data landscape is largely dysfunctional because of the industry’s highvariability in scale, scope, technological adoption, and relationships. Integrated data andmodels of agricultural sub-systems could be used to advance decision-making, but interoperability challenges prevent successful innovation. In this work, temporal and geospatial indexing strategies and aggregation were explored toward the development of functional data structures for soils, weather, solar, and machinery-collected yield data that enhance data context, scalability, and sharability.</p>
<p>The data structures were then employed in the creation of decision support tools including web-based applications and visualizations. One such tool leveraged a geospatial indexing technique called geohashing to visualize dense yield data and measure the outcomes of on-farm yield trials. Additionally, the proposed scalable, open-standard data structures were used to drive a soil water balance model that can provide insights into soil moisture conditions critical to farm planning, logistics, and irrigation. The model integrates SSURGO soil data,weather data from the Applied Climate Information System, and solar data from the National Solar Radiation Database in order to compute a soil water balance, returning values including runoff, evaporation, and soil moisture in an automated, continuous, and incremental manner.</p>
<p>The approach leveraged the Open Ag Data Alliance framework to demonstrate how the data structures can be delivered through sharable Representational State Transfer Application Programming Interfaces and to run the model in a service-oriented manner such that it can be operated continuously and incrementally, which is essential for driving real-time decision support tools. The implementations rely heavily on the Javascript Object Notation data schemas leveraged by Javascript/Typescript front-end web applications and back-end services delivered through Docker containers. The approach embraces modular coding concepts and several levels of open source utility packages were published for interacting with data sources and supporting the service-based operations.</p>
<p>By making use of the strategies laid out by this framework, industry and research canenhance data-based decision making through models and tools. Developers and researchers will be better equipped to take on the data wrangling tasks involved in retrieving and parsing unfamiliar datasets, moving them throughout information technology systems, and understanding those datasets down to a semantic level.</p>
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Clinical Decision Support System for Chronic Pain Management in Primary Care: Usability TestingMalaekeh, Sadat Raheleh 10 1900 (has links)
<p>Chronic low back pain is the second most prevalent chronic condition in Canadian primary care settings. The treatment and diagnosis of chronic pain is challenging for primary care clinicians. Their main challenges are lack of knowledge and their approach toward assessing and treating pain. Evidence based guidelines have been developed for neuropathic pain and low back pain.</p> <p>CDSSs for chronic diseases are becoming popular in primary care settings as a mean to implement CPGs. A CDSS prototype for diagnosis and treatment of chronic, non-cancer pain in primary care was developed at McMaster University. It is evident that poor usability can hinder the uptake of health information technologies.</p> <p>The objective of this study was to test the usability of Pain Assistant using think aloud protocols with SUS scores in 2 iterations. In this study 13 primary care providers including family physicians, nurse practitioners and residents used Pain Assistant to complete 3 different patient case scenarios. Participants were asked to comment on both barriers and facilitators of usability of Pain Assistant. Additionally time to complete patient case scenarios was calculated for each participant. A comparison questionnaire gathered user preference between introducing CPGs in paper format and computerized decision support system.</p> <p>This study showed that iterative usability testing of the Pain Assistant with participation of real-end users has the potential to uncover usability issues of the Pain Assistant. Problems of user interface were the main usability barrier in first testing iteration following by problems of content. Changes were made to system design for second round based on the issues came up in the first iteration. However, because of time constrains not all the changes were implemented for second round of testing. Most of the refinements were to resolve user interface issues. In the second iteration, the problems with the content of Pain Assistant were the major barrier. The changes to the system design were successful in resolving user interface problems since the changed issues did not come up again in second round. Pain Assistant had an above the average usability score however no significant changes seen in SUS score. The time needed to complete tasks remained identical in both iterations. In addition, participants preferred to have CPGs in electronic formats than paper. Further study after implementing all the system changes needed to determine the effectiveness of system refinements.</p> / Master of Science (MSc)
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Unterstützung der Entscheidungsfindung bezüglich der Therapie mit Immuncheckpointinhibitoren bei rekurrenten/metastasierten(R/M) Kopf-Hals-Karzinomen durch Bayes’sche NetzeHühn, Marius 05 November 2024 (has links)
New diagnostic methods and novel therapeutic agents spawn additional and heterogeneous in-formation, leading to an increasingly complex decision-making process for optimal treatment of cancer. A great amount of information is collected in organ-specific multidisciplinary tumor boards (MDTBs). By considering the patient’s tumor properties, molecular pathological test re-sults, and comorbidities, the MDTB has to consent an evidence-based treatment decision. Im-munotherapies are increasingly important in today’s cancer treatment, resulting in detailed in-formation that influences the decision-making process. Clinical decision support systems can fa-cilitate a better understanding via processing of multiple datasets of oncological cases and mo-lecular genetic information, potentially fostering transparency and comprehensibility of available information, eventually leading to an optimum treatment decision for the individual patient. We constructed a digital patient model based on Bayesian networks to combine the relevant pa-tient-specific and molecular data with depended probabilities derived from pertinent studies and clinical guidelines to calculate treatment decisions in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). In a validation analysis, the model can provide guidance within the growing subject of immunotherapy in HNSCC and, based on its ability to calculate reliable probabilities, facilitates estimation of suitable therapy options. We compared actual treatment decisions of 25 patients with the calculated recommendations of our model and found significant concordance (Cohen’s κ=0.505, p=0.009) and 84% accuracy.
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Diseño de esquema de seguros agrícolas para mitigación del riesgo de sequías hidrológicas mediante modelos hidroeconómicos a escala de cuencaValenzuela Mahecha, Miguel Angel 16 October 2023 (has links)
[ES] La escasez de agua es un problema cada vez más recurrente para la agricultura de regadío en las regiones mediterráneas, siendo la sequía hidrológica uno de los problemas que afecta la disponibilidad de agua. Por lo tanto, es necesario establecer alternativas técnicas y económico-financieras que permitan a los regantes enfrentar este problema desde una visión amplia de la gestión del agua para uso agrícola a nivel de cuenca. Estas alternativas deben incluir instrumentos de planificación hidrológica, que permitan analizar el impacto de la sequía y determinar las medidas a implementar cuando el recurso hídrico disponible no sea suficiente para satisfacer las demandas de agua.
Uno de los instrumentos económicos y financieros para la gestión del riesgo agroclimático que se ha implementado con éxito y que cada día cobra más fuerza es el de los seguros agrícolas, más específicamente, el seguro indexado. Esta investigación pretende contribuir a mitigar el impacto de la escasez de agua en comunidades de regantes situadas en cuencas altamente reguladas, como el sistema de explotación del río Júcar, mediante el diseño de un nuevo esquema de seguro indexado por sequía hidrológica, basado en índices totalmente alineados con los procedimientos de gestión de la sequía a nivel de cuenca.
El proceso de diseño del seguro comprende 3 etapas. En la primera se evalúa económicamente el impacto de la sequía para establecer una indemnización unitaria, elemento base para el diseño del seguro. La segunda etapa consiste en establecer un índice por sequía hidrológica que tenga un alto grado de correlación con las pérdidas productivas y económicas en las comunidades de regantes y reduzca los problemas de riesgo moral, selección adversa y riesgo base que se presentan en este tipo de seguros indexados. En este caso, se diseñaron y evaluaron tres índices de sequía hidrológica (IEECHJ, ISH1, ISH2), siendo el indicador principal el índice de estado de escasez IEECHJ de la Unidad Territorial UTE del Júcar, establecido en el plan especial de sequía de la Demarcación Hidrográfica del Júcar PES (2018). Finalmente, en la tercera etapa se busca establecer los principales parámetros económicos del seguro: la indemnización recibida, el máximo valor indemnizable y el valor de la prima pura a pagar que se incluirán en los diferentes tipos de contrato.
El seguro es evaluado simulando su operación como si estuviera en funcionamiento. Se utilizan indicadores económicos-financieros para comparar los beneficios para la comunidad de regantes con o sin contrato. Los indicadores utilizados son la desviación estándar, el error cuadrático medio, el índice de siniestralidad y el riesgo base, los cuales están en función del margen bruto del cultivo. Para analizar la gestión del recurso hídrico en la cuenca y determinar escenarios de escasez que pueden declarar un siniestro o pago de indemnización del seguro, se utilizó un modelo de gestión de cuencas que tiene en cuenta las reglas de gestión del sistema.
Al incluir los indicadores financieros en la evaluación del seguro, se determina que la mejor opción en el diseño es tomar el IEECHJ=0.20 sin franquicia deducible como disparador. Esto minimiza la semivarianza y la desviación estándar del margen bruto y permite obtener valores más altos del margen bruto mínimo en comparación con la opción de no implementar el seguro.
El seguro por sequía hidrológica contribuye a llenar el vacío existente en los planes de seguro tradicionales para cultivos bajo riego y ofrece cobertura adicional a los agricultores en condiciones de sequía y escasez de agua. Además, este diseño logra comprender la complejidad de la interacción de los subsistemas de aportaciones, demandas y reglas de operación del recurso hídrico a nivel de cuenca, siendo esta la contribución principal de esta investigación. / [CA] L'escassetat d'aigua és un problema cada vegada més recurrent per a l'agricultura de regadiu a les regions mediterrànies, sent la sequera hidrològica un dels problemes que afecta la disponibilitat d'aigua. Per tant, és necessari establir alternatives tècniques i economicofinanceres que permeten als regants enfrontar aquest problema des d'una visió àmplia de la gestió de l'aigua per a ús agrícola a nivell de conca. Aquestes alternatives han d'incloure instruments de planificació hidrològica, que permeten analitzar l'impacte de la sequera i determinar les mesures a implementar quan el recurs hídric disponible no siga suficient per a satisfer les demandes d'aigua.
Un dels instruments econòmics i financers per a la gestió del risc agroclimàtic que s'ha implementat amb èxit i que cada dia cobra més força és el de les assegurances agrícoles, més específicament, el segur indexat. Així, aquesta investigació pretén contribuir a mitigar l'impacte de l'escassetat d'aigua en comunitats de regants situades en conques altament regulades, com el sistema d'explotació del va riure Xúquer, mitjançant el disseny d'un nou esquema de segur indexat per sequera hidrològica, basat en índexs totalment alineats amb els procediments de gestió de la sequera a nivell de conca.
El procés de disseny del segur comprén 3 etapes. En la primera, s'avalua econòmicament l'impacte de la sequera per a establir una indemnització unitària, element base per al disseny de l'assegurança. Posteriorment, la segona etapa consisteix a establir un índex per sequera hidrològica que tinga un alt grau de correlació amb les pèrdues productives i econòmiques en les comunitats de regants i reduïsca els problemes de risc moral, selecció adversa i risc base que es presenten en aquesta mena d'assegurances indexades. En aquest cas, es van dissenyar i van avaluar tres índexs d'estat d'escassetat (IEECHJ, ISH1, ISH2), sent l'indicador principal l'índex IEECHJ de la Unitat Territorial del Xúquer UTE, establit en el pla especial de sequera de la Demarcació Hidrogràfica del Xúquer PES (2018). Finalment, en la tercera etapa es busca establir els principals paràmetres econòmics de l'assegurança: la indemnització rebuda, el màxim valor indemnitzable i el valor de la prima a pagar que s'inclouran en els diferents tipus de contracte.
El segur és avaluat simulant la seua operació com si estiguera en funcionament. S'utilitzen indicadors econòmics-financers per a comparar els beneficis per a la comunitat de regants amb o sense contracte. Els indicadors utilitzats són la desviació estàndard, l'error quadràtic mitjà, l'índex de sinistralitat i el risc base, els quals estan en funció del marge brut del cultiu. Per a analitzar la gestió del recurs hídric en la conca i determinar escenaris d'escassetat que poden declarar un sinistre o pagament d'indemnització del segur, es va utilitzar un model de gestió de conques que té en compte les regles de gestió del sistema.
En incloure els indicadors financers en l'avaluació del segur, es determina que la millor opció en el disseny és prendre el IEECHJ=0.20 sense franquícia deduïble com disparador. Això minimitza la semivariància i la desviació estàndard del marge brut i permet obtindre valors més alts del marge brut mínim en comparació amb l'opció de no implementar l'assegurança.
L'assegurança per sequera hidrològica contribueix a omplir el buit existent en els plans de segur tradicionals per a cultius sota reg i ofereix cobertura addicional als agricultors en condicions de sequera i escassetat d'aigua. A més, aquest disseny aconsegueix comprendre la complexitat de la interacció dels subsistemes d'aportacions, demandes i regles d'operació del recurs hídric a nivell de conca, sent aquesta la contribució principal d'aquesta investigació. / [EN] Water scarcity is an increasingly recurring problem for irrigated agriculture in the Mediterranean region, with hydrological droughts affecting water availability. Therefore, it is necessary to establish technical and economic-financial alternatives that allow irrigators to face this problem from a broad vision of water management for agricultural use at the basin level. These alternatives should include hydrological planning tools that allow the analysis of the effects of drought and the determination of the measures to be implemented when the available water resources cannot meet the water demand.
One of the economic and financial instruments for managing agro-climatic risks that has been successfully implemented and is gaining more strength every day is agricultural insurance, specifically indexed insurance. This research aims to contribute to the mitigation of the effects of water scarcity in irrigation communities located in highly regulated basins, such as the Júcar river exploitation system, through the design of a new insurance scheme indexed by hydrological drought, based on indices fully aligned with drought management procedures at the basin level.
The insurance design process consists of three stages. First, the impact of drought is economically evaluated to determine a unit compensation, which is the basis for the insurance design. The second stage is to establish a hydrological drought index that is highly correlated with productive and economic losses in irrigation communities and reduces moral hazard problems, adverse selection, and baseline risks problems inherent in this type of indexed insurance. In this case, three indices of scarcity status (IEECHJ, ISH1, ISH2) were designed and evaluated, the main indicator being the IEECHJ index of the Júcar UTE Territorial Unit, established in the Special Drought Plan of the Júcar River Basin PES (2018). Finally, the third stage aims to establish the main economic parameters of the insurance: the compensation received, the maximum compensable value, and the value of the premium rate to be included in the different types of contracts.
The insurance is evaluated by simulating of its operation as if it were in process. Economic-financial indicators are used to compare the benefits to the community of irrigators with and without a contract. The indicators used are standard deviation, mean root-square loss, loss ratio, and base risk, which are based on the gross margin of the crop. The water resources simulation model that considers system management rules was used to analyze water resource management in the basin and to determine scarcity scenarios that could trigger a claim or insurance indemnity payment.
By including financial indicators in the insurance assessment, it is determined that the best option in the design is to consider as a trigger the IEECHJ=0.20 without a deductible franchise, since the semi-variance and standard deviation of the gross margin are minimized, and higher values of the minimum gross margin are obtained compared to the option of not implementing insurance.
Hydrological drought insurance contributes to fill the gap in traditional insurance schemes for irrigated crops and provides additional coverage to farmers in times of drought and water scarcity. In addition, this design manages to understand the complexity of the interaction of the subsystems of contributions, demands and operating rules of the water resource at the basin level, which is the main contribution of this research. / Valenzuela Mahecha, MA. (2023). Diseño de esquema de seguros agrícolas para mitigación del riesgo de sequías hidrológicas mediante modelos hidroeconómicos a escala de cuenca [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/198184
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