行政部門委員會為政府內具有公共參與特質的合議制組織，來自社會層級的利害關係人被納入決策圈，並共同決定政策內容，作者稱之為委員會參與機制。此決策模式結合了社會與政府對公共參與的期待，並在世界各國廣泛使用。行政管理者宣稱可透過社會代表性的提升，提高政策的正當性與回應性；但實務上，委員會卻遭遇密室協商、激化對立、政治操弄等質疑。對此，本研究提出以下疑問：公共參與是否真能回應社會的政策需求？該如何具體評估參與績效？ 依據委員會的決策結構特質，作者由公共參與的理論視野探討代表性和回應性的因果機制，提供一套以委員會為主體的參與評估標準。代表性在理論上有形式與實質代表性兩個層次，共包含參與制度、議事行為與會議影響力三個面向；回應性則強調利害關係人對委員會回應需求的主觀評價，又分為民主程序與實質利益的需求回應能力兩類。參與概念落實在制度賦權和議事行為，應該會同時強化兩類回應性。在研究方法上，本文以全民健康保險委員會為分析案例：首先透過跨國比較，分析台灣、日本、韓國、加拿大以及德國在類似的審議機制中，如何建構委員會代表性的制度。依此基礎，再針對第一屆健保會的運作進行分析，透過利害關係人問卷、健保會會議記錄內容分析、深度訪談與焦點團體等方法，深入探討健保會之政策回應能力。 研究結果發現：一、委員會參與的制度賦權和正當性皆來自代議機關，尚無法取而代之。台灣健保會之形式代表性，在行政單位主導下仍偏好具有政治動員能力的團體，較忽略社會連帶或保障弱勢的價值。二、健保會在民主功能和實質結果兩個回應性面向的評價皆為正面，而民主程序的評價又優於後者。然而，相互理解的功能評價再高，卻未對實質回應性產生顯著影響。三、是否具有健保會席次並不影響回應性評估；但直接與會者以及實際參與愈積極者，卻反而對委員會回應利害關係人需求的能力抱持較悲觀的看法。最後，在程序面和實質面評價上最為顯著的因素為會議影響力，會議影響力愈大的團體，其回應性也就愈高。 總結上述來回答核心問題：參與是否會提高利害關係人的回應性？在極大化個體利益的動機下，參與制度和行為都只提供爭取權益的機會，不必然導致實質利益。再加上負擔參與成本以及競爭資源的政治現實，參與者進入體制後，反而對委員會的政策回應能力持質疑的態度。是故，會議影響力為關鍵因素，只有在參與過程中獲利愈多者，其回應性才有直接的正面作用；若忽略參與途徑和結果的連結以及權力互動，就過度簡化了參與的政治本質。基於此，行政管理者掌握了決策結構與行政資源，若想取得較佳的回應性評價，就必須在制度和過程面中平衡不同的社會力量，才能使委員會發揮多元參與的功能，而不只是優勢團體的工具。 / Governmental committees are a kind of public participatory mechanism, whereby policy stakeholders are incorporated in the decision making procedure and negotiate with each other to policy outcomes. This mechanism accords with the expectations of both society and government and is frequently used by executive branches all over the world. Ideally, social representativeness can strengthen legitimacy and thereby increase responsiveness. However, in practice, there have also been some criticisms of the committee mechanism, including black box decision making, conflict enlargement, and administrative manipulation. To response this debate, my study addresses whether this type of public participation is responsive to policy demands as well as how to substantially evaluate its effectiveness. Theoretically, participation has a positive impact on policy demands, I provide more precise analysis using the concepts of representativeness and responsiveness. The former refers to how interests are presented in the decision making process, including in both the formal and substantive dimension. The latter refers to the committee’s ability to respond to procedural and substantive demands from society. To illustrate the theoretical framework, the National Health Insurance Committee (NHIC) in Taiwan is taken as my case study. The empirical section is divided into two parts, Fist, I explore original guiding values and institutional design of five committees that emerged under different political-social contexts in Japan, South Korea, Canada, Germany and Taiwan. Based on the results of this comparison, the NHIC in Taiwan is my main topic in the second part. The participatory behavior of committee members and their evaluation of the NHIC system are discussed through the various research methods, such as interviews, focus groups, stakeholder surveys, and also context analysis of meeting minutes. Four results of the study are illustrated as follows: 1. Because the legitimacy of the committee mechanism is empowered by traditional representative authority (the elected legislative or executive branch), it serves a supplementary rather than substitutive function to the existing system. Especially in Taiwan, the administration prefers the advantaged groups more capable of mobilizing social supports over the vulnerable groups which may bring the values of social solidarity and justice into the decision-making of the committee. 2. Stakeholders positively appraised the NHIC’s responsive capacity, both in the procedural and substantive dimensions, with the former appraised more highly than the latter. However, a high level of communication functions had no impact on responsiveness. 3. The institutional variable has no impact on responsiveness. However, direct participation in meetings was associated with more pessimistic views of the NHIC when compared to the non-participators. In addition, the more actors were involved in the NHIC, the more negative their evaluations were. 4. The most significant variable for responsiveness is the decision influence of stakeholders. Does participation strengthen stakeholders’ responsiveness? Under the condition that individuals are motivated by interest maximization, while institutional design and participatory behavior seek to pursue individual interest, it may not always realize substantial benefits. Furthermore, after becoming institutional insiders, the costs of participation and the political reality of power competition will make stakeholders more skeptical about the responsiveness of committee mechanisms. In other words, whether participation can increase the stakeholders’ satisfaction mainly depends on the benefit they can obtain from it. Without taking into account the link between participatory approaches and results, as well as the interaction between various stakeholders, we cannot gain a full picture of the nature of policy participation. In terms of practical reforms, to increase performance responsiveness, administrators who control the structures and resources of the NHIC should incorporate different social forces and interests on the input and process dimensions. This will enable the committee mechanism to perform the function of pluralistic participation, rather than simply serving as a political tool for advantaged groups.

Previous research on human judgment and decision making has demonstrated systematic and predictable biases of judgment in experimental settings. One example of this is the tendency to intuitively violate the conjunction rule - a simple rule of probability. This was well illustrated in the famous Linda-problem. (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983). According to the dual-process theory of reasoning, (Kahneman, 2011) reasoning fallacies such as the conjunction fallacy occurs when people fail to use analytic reasoning and instead overly rely on their intuition. The dual process theory proposes that cognitive processes underlying our intuitive impulses and our conscious reasoning constitutes two different modes in the mind –system 1 and system 2- and that the intuitive system 1 are not able to compute probabilities. Furthermore, it is assumed that processes that are labeled system 1 are fast whereas system 2 are thought to be slow. We tested these time course assumptions of dual process theory in a within-subject design by comparing response time latencies between conjunction fallacy judgments and accurate probability judgments. The results showed that inducing accurate responding did not result in delayed response latency. This indicates that making accurate probability judgments does not require more processing time which goes against what would be expected by the dual-process framework. / Tidigare forskning om mänskligt beslutsfattande och bedömningar har i experiment påvisat systematiska och förutsägbara bias. Ett exempel på detta är tendensen att intuitivt gå emot konjuktionsregeln- en enkel regel gällande sannolikhet. Detta illustrerades väl i det berömda Linda- problemet (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983). Enligt två-systemsteorin (Kahneman, 2011) om problemlösning, uppstår bedömningsfel såsom konjuktionsfelet när människor inte använder sig av analytiskt tänkande och istället förlitar sig för mycket på sin intuition. Två-systemsteorin menar att de kognitiva processer som ligger till grund för våra intuitiva impulser och vårt medvetna resonerande utgör två olika aktörer i vårt tänkande- system 1 och system 2- och att det intuitiva system 1 inte kan beräkna sannolikheter. Processer som betecknas som tillhörande system 1 är enligt två-systemsteorin snabba medan system 2 föreställs vara ett långsamt system. I denna studie testades antagandet om tidsåtgång för de två systemen i en inomgruppsdesign genom att jämföra responstider mellan bedömningar där konjunktionsfelet begåtts och bedömningar där det inte begåtts. Resultaten visar att korrekta sannolikhetsbedömningar inte resulterar i långsammare responstider. Detta indikerar att det inte tycks vara mer tidskrävande att göra riktiga sannolikhetsbedömningar, vilket motsäger två-systemsteorins antagande om snabbt och långsamt processande.

L’objectif général de cette thèse est d’examiner le lien entre l’attachement amoureux des conjoints, la satisfaction conjugale, le mandat thérapeutique et le résultat de la thérapie conjugale telle que conduite en milieu naturel. Afin d’atteindre cet objectif, des couples se présentant en thérapie conjugale ont d’abord complété une batterie de questionnaires comprenant l’Échelle d’ajustement dyadique (Spanier, 1976) et le Questionnaire sur les expériences d’attachement amoureux (Brennan, Clark, & Shaver, 1998). Les thérapeutes ont par la suite indiqué le mandat thérapeutique poursuivi avec chaque couple (réconciliation ou résolution de l’ambivalence), suivant la classification de Poitras-Wright et St-Père (2004). À la fin de la consultation, le jugement du thérapeute a été utilisé pour classer chacun des cas comme ayant abandonné ou complété le traitement. Les couples ayant complété la thérapie ont rempli l’Échelle d’ajustement dyadique au post-traitement. Dans le premier des articles composant cette thèse, le lien entre l’attachement amoureux et la satisfaction conjugale a été examiné auprès d’un échantillon de 172 couples en détresse débutant une thérapie conjugale, de même qu’auprès de 56 couples non en détresse débutant également une thérapie conjugale, pour fins de comparaison. Les résultats ont démontré que l’évitement de la proximité semble être une caractéristique distinctive des couples en détresse et que cette dimension de l’attachement est fortement liée à l’insatisfaction conjugale de ce même groupe. Dans le deuxième article, le mandat thérapeutique, l’attachement amoureux et la satisfaction conjugale ont été examinés en tant que prédicteurs de l’abandon de la thérapie conjugale, auprès de 141 couples. Les résultats ont notamment démontré qu’un mandat de résolution de l’ambivalence augmente les probabilités d’abandon de la thérapie conjugale. De plus, les prédicteurs du résultat de la thérapie ont également été examinés dans ce second article. Les résultats obtenus au moyen d’analyses acteur-partenaire ont démontré que la satisfaction conjugale pré-traitement apparaît comme le meilleur prédicteur de la satisfaction conjugale post-traitement, et ce, malgré l’inclusion de l’attachement amoureux parmi les variables investiguées. Considérés dans leur ensemble, les résultats de cette thèse suggèrent que l’insécurité d’attachement serait fortement associée à l’insatisfaction des couples en détresse, mais ne nuirait pas pour autant à l’obtention d’un résultat positif en thérapie conjugale. En somme, cette thèse contribue à l’avancement des connaissances en se penchant sur l’utilité de la théorie de l’attachement en thérapie conjugale et en soulignant la nécessité de tenir compte des mandats thérapeutiques dans les futures études en thérapie conjugale. Les implications cliniques des résultats et des recommandations pour la recherche clinique sont présentées dans la conclusion de l’ouvrage. / The aim of this thesis was to elucidate the link between adult romantic attachment, relationship satisfaction, therapeutic mandates and couple therapy outcome. Couples seeking therapy in a natural setting completed the Dyadic Adjustment Scale (Spanier, 1976) and the Experiences in Close Relationships Questionnaire (Brennan, Clark, & Shaver, 1998) at intake. Therapists classified the therapeutic mandate pursued in each case (i.e., alleviation of couple distress or ambivalence resolution) according to the Classification of Therapeutic Mandates Questionnaire (Poitras-Wright & St-Père, 2004). When treatment ceased, couples were classified as dropouts or completers according to therapists’ judgment, and completers were further assessed using the Dyadic Adjustment Scale. In the first of two articles, the association between adult romantic attachment and pre-treatment marital satisfaction was investigated in a sample of 172 distressed couples seeking therapy, as well as in a comparison sample of 56 nondistressed couples seeking therapy. Results showed that attachment avoidance was a distinctive characteristic of distressed couples and that it was a strong predictor of marital dissatisfaction among distressed couples seeking therapy. Based on a series of 141 couple therapy cases, the second article examined therapeutic mandates, romantic attachment orientations, and pre-treatment marital satisfaction as predictors of premature disengagement from couple therapy. The most striking result was that an ambivalence resolution mandate was strongly associated with increased chances of treatment discontinuation. Predictors of couple therapy outcome were also examined: actor-partner analyses revealed that the strongest predictor of post-treatment marital satisfaction was pre-treatment marital satisfaction, despite the inclusion of romantic attachment among the predictor variables. Overall, these results indicate that attachment insecurity is strongly related to distressed couples’ marital dissatisfaction, but that it might not impede the attainment of a positive outcome in couple therapy. In sum, this thesis contributed to the field of couple therapy by investigating the pertinence of attachment theory in couple treatment, and highlighting the need for further study of therapeutic mandates in couple therapy. Clinical implications for couple therapy are discussed, and recommendations for clinical research offered.

La surveillance des rejets gazeux des installations nucléaires dans l'environnement et de contrôle des dispositifs d'épuration reposent sur des mesures régulières de concentrations des contaminants en sortie de cheminées et dans les réseaux de ventilation. La répartition de la concentration peut être hétérogène au niveau du point de mesure si la distance d'établissement du mélange est insuffisante. La question se pose sur l'évaluation du positionnement des points de piquage et sur l'erreur commise par rapport à la concentration homogène en cas de non-respect de cette distance. Cette étude définit cette longueur dite de « bon mélange » à partir d'expériences menées en laboratoire. Le banc dimensionné pour ces essais a permis de reproduire des écoulements dans des conduits longs circulaire et rectangulaire, comprenant chacun un coude. Une technique de mesure optique a été développée, calibrée puis utilisée pour mesurer la distribution de la concentration d'un traceur injecté dans l'écoulement. Les résultats expérimentaux en conduit cylindrique ont validé un modèle analytique basé sur l'équation de convection-diffusion d'un traceur, et ont permis de proposer des modèles de longueur de bon mélange et de représentativité de points de prélèvement. Dans le conduit à section rectangulaire, les mesures acquises constituent une première base de données sur l'évolution de l'homogénéisation d'un traceur, dans la perspective de simulations numériques explorant des conditions plus réalistes des mesures in situ. / Monitoring of gaseous releases from nuclear installations in the environment and air cleaning efficiency measurement are based on regular measurements of concentrations of contaminants in outlet chimneys and ventilation systems. The concentration distribution may be heterogeneous at the measuring point if the distance setting of the mixing is not sufficient. The question is about the set up of the measuring point in duct and the error compared to the homogeneous concentration in case of non-compliance with this distance. This study defines the so-called "well mixing length" from laboratory experiments. The bench designed for these tests allowed to reproduce flows in long circular and rectangular ducts, each including a bend. An optical measurement technique has been developed, calibrated and used to measure the concentration distribution of a tracer injected in the flow. The experimental results in cylindrical duct have validated an analytical model based on the convection-diffusion equation of a tracer, and allowed to propose models of good mixing length and representativeness of sampling points. In rectangular duct, the acquired measures constitute a first database on the evolution of the homogenization of a tracer, in the perspective of numerical simulations exploring more realistic conditions for measurements in situ.

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Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:24:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Antonio Carlos Aguiar.pdf: 901472 bytes, checksum: 3b6c26303ce1edc02887e20aa5c9575c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-03 / The purpose of this study is to show that union unicity is not part of the Brazilian constitutional system. The Brazilian Federal Constitution is grounded on a closed system formed by guarantees and principles which consolidate democracy, particularly by means of diversity; pluralism; broad possibility of options. This system operation is presented by a model of scientific-structural acknowledgement of union freedom by means of an explanatory concentric diagram showing the democratic coexistence of subsystems within the union system, and the formatting of ways of expressing the representativeness and execution of atypical collective-bargaining agreements / O presente estudo tem por objetivo demonstrar que a unicidade sindical não está inserida no sistema constitucional brasileiro. A Constituição Federal se sustenta mediante um sistema fechado, composto por garantias e princípios que consolidam a democracia, em especial, por meio da diversidade; pelo pluralismo; pela ampla possibilidade de opções. Para efetivação desse sistema é apresentado um modelo de reconhecimento científico-estrutural da liberdade sindical, por intermédio de um diagrama concêntrico explicativo, evidenciando o convívio democrático de subsistemas dentro do sistema sindical, bem como a formatação de modos de exteriorização de representatividade e celebração de acordos coletivos atípicos

Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-21T14:29:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Viviane Regina Calikevstz.pdf: 6253564 bytes, checksum: 108ab72fcfd01639814b82ce959ea894 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-04-17 / The present thesis aims to show the representativeness of the social category of the Brazilian Expeditionary Force - FEB, as a special category of society. The time period in question dates from the decades of consolidation of the Regime do Estado Novo - from the 1930s to the present day, through pre and post World War II stages, showing how the category was built, its performance in the world conflict, its return home as heroes, its abandonment by the State and its materialization in the form of symbols throughout national territory. In the search for the confirmation of the hypothesis that it would be the category of the FEB and its members, living assets of society, which generated the question of the military heritage and its representativeness in the form of symbols. These being the FEB category itself, its monuments , museums, virtual memory spaces, private collections and memoirs of living veterans and individuals in general, cultural productions such as films, documentaries and books, created and developed for researchers, writers, filmmakers, admirers, family members and war veterans themselves. As an interdisciplinary research project, the approaches used included several humanistic chains, based on authors and the concepts of disciplines such as geography, history, sociology and arts, showing that the complexity of the theme and the hypotheses, which called for this large a range of scientific approaches. The research presents acceptable proof and conclusions, but is not fully closed, since the construction process itself, still ongoing, was the most evident element at work. / A presente tese tem como objetivo mostrar a representatividade da categoria social da Força Expedicionária Brasileira – FEB, enquanto uma categoria especial da sociedade. O recorte temporal de estudo parte das décadas de consolidação do Regime do Estado Novo – década de 30 até os dias atuais, passando pelo pré e pós Segunda Guerra Mundial, mostrando como se construiu a categoria, sua atuação no conflito mundial, seu regresso enquanto heróis, sua situação de abandono pelo Estado e sua materialização na forma de símbolos pelo território nacional. Na busca pela comprovação da hipótese de que seria a categoria da FEB e seus integrantes, patrimônios vivos da sociedade, partiu-se da problemática envolvendo o patrimônio militar e sua representatividade na forma de símbolos, ou seja, a própria categoria da FEB, seus monumentos, museus, espaços de memória, acervos particulares e memórias dos veteranos vivos e dos indivíduos em geral, produções culturais como filmes, documentários e livros, criados e desenvolvido por pesquisadores, escritores, cineastas, admiradores, familiares e os próprios veteranos de guerra. Enquanto uma pesquisa interdisciplinar, as abordagens passaram pela corrente humanística, pautando-se em autores e conceitos de disciplinas como geografia, história, semiótica, sociologia, artes, mostrando que a complexidade da temática e das hipóteses necessitava desse leque de enfoques científicos. A pesquisa apresenta comprovações aceitáveis, mas jamais finalizadas, visto que o processo de construção foi o elemento mais evidente no trabalho como um todo.

O objetivo deste estudo é apresentar uma revisão sobre técnicas de redução da ordem de modelos dinâmicos lineares e invariantes no tempo. Com a implementação de tais técnicas, o autor mostra que é possível reproduzir as principais características da resposta de um modelo de alta ordem através de um modelo de ordem reduzida com menor número de graus de liberdade. Uma metodologia para redução da ordem de modelos de sistemas dinâmicos foi apresentada. Os processos envolvidos nesta metodologia foram descritos, os quais são: técnicas para realizar projeções do sistema em diferentes bases, selecionar os graus de liberdade que são bons candidatos a eliminação, eliminar graus de liberdade do modelo completo e implementar correções na resposta do modelo reduzido. Foram apresentadas maneiras de quantificar as similitudes entre as respostas dos modelos completo e reduzido através de métricas de representatividade. Para implementar e estudar as técnicas de redução apresentadas, o autor elaborou dois modelos para estudo de caso: um modelo para estudo da dinâmica vertical de um veículo de passeio e outro modelo para estudo da dinâmica longitudinal de um trem. Diferentes técnicas de redução foram implementadas a partir dos dois modelos para estudo de caso e os resultados foram comparados através das métricas de representatividade. O critério proposto pelo autor para quantificar desempenho de um modelo reduzido foi utilizado para determinar de maneira objetiva o modelo reduzido mais adequado para cada aplicação. Como contribuição neste trabalho, o autor propôs uma definição de desempenho de um modelo reduzido e um método para quantificar o mesmo, além de duas novas métricas para mensurar a capacidade do modelo reduzido em reproduzir os máximos sobre-sinais e tempos de acomodação do modelo completo. / The objective of this work is to present a revision about model order reduction techniques applied to linear, time invariant dynamic systems. With the implementation of these techniques, the author shows that it is possible to reproduce the main characteristics of the response of a high order dynamic system using a reduced order model with fewer degrees of freedom. A model order reduction methodology was presented. The processes which are involved in this methodology were described, which are: techniques for projection onto different basis, selection of the most suitable degrees of freedom to be reduced, elimination of degrees of freedom from the high order model, implementation of corrections at the reduced model response. The author showed ways to quantify the similarities between the responses of the complete and reduced models using representativeness metrics. In order to implement and study the presented model order reduction techniques, the author developed two case study models: one model to study the vertical dynamics of a passenger car and another model to study the longitudinal dynamics of a train. Different model order reduction techniques were implemented and its results were compared using representativeness metrics and the performance of the reduced models. The criteria proposed by the author to quantify the performance of a reduced order model was used to objectively determine the most suitable reduced order model for each application. The author proposed, as contribution at this work, a definition of the reduced order model performance, a method to quantify its performance and two new metrics to measure the capacity of the reduced model to reproduce the overshoots and settling times of the complete model.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T16:44:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Gabriel Santos Alberto.pdf: 1530144 bytes, checksum: 5d3e547ec9c1168ac27b5519e48cd67d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-09-24 / The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between the theory of psychological types and the decision-making, focusing on behavioral biases, anchoring, overconfidence, representativeness, mental accounting and loss aversion. A questionnaire was developed and 319 valid responses were obtained. We used descriptive statistics, parametric and nonparametric tests, and structural equation modeling, using IBM SPSS Statistics and AMOS. The results show that decision-making is influenced by the dimension extraversion-introversion, sensation-intuition, thinking-feeling, judgment-perception, gender, education, income and age. The extraversion-introversion dimension influence on the anchoring and loss aversion bias, sensation-intuition on the representativeness bias; thinking-feeling on the overconfidence, representativeness and loss aversion bias; judgment-perception on the overconfidence, representativeness, mental accounting and loss aversion bias; gender on the anchoring, overconfidence, representativeness, mental accounting and loss aversion bias; education on the overconfidence, representativeness and loss aversion bias; income on the anchoring, overconfidence, representativeness, mental accounting and loss aversion bias, and age on the anchoring, overconfidence, representativeness and mental accounting bias. This work contributes adding new evidence that behavior of decision makers is influenced by psychological types and therefore bias is possible to be mitigated / O objetivo do trabalho foi verificar a relação entre a teoria dos tipos psicológicos e as decisões dos indivíduos, sob a luz dos vieses comportamentais, ancoragem, excesso de confiança, representatividade, contabilidade mental e aversão a perdas. Foi elaborado um questionário e foram obtidas 319 respostas válidas. Utilizou-se de análises descritivas, teste paramétrico, não paramétrico e modelagem de equações estruturais, utilizando o IBM SPSS Statistics e o AMOS. Os resultados mostram que as tomadas de decisões são influenciadas pela dimensão extroversão-introversão, sensação-intuição, pensamento-sentimento, julgamento-percepção, gênero, escolaridade, renda e idade. A dimensão extroversão-introversão influencia no viés ancoragem e aversão a perdas; a sensação-intuição no viés representatividade, o pensamento-sentimento no viés excesso de confiança, representatividade e aversão a perdas; o julgamento-percepção no viés excesso de confiança, representatividade, contabilidade mental e aversão a perdas; o gênero no viés ancoragem, excesso de confiança, representatividade, contabilidade mental e aversão a perdas; a escolaridade com o viés excesso de confiança, representatividade e aversão a perdas; a renda com o viés ancoragem, excesso de confiança, representatividade, contabilidade mental e aversão a perdas, e a idade com o viés ancoragem, excesso de confiança, representatividade e contabilidade mental. O presente trabalho contribui agregando novas evidências da influência dos tipos psicológicos no comportamento dos tomadores de decisão, que certos tipos psicológicos estão mais propensos a certos vieses comportamentais, e, assim sendo, há possibilidade de mitigar os vieses, seja na esfera corporativa ou governamental

本研究的目的為研究國中九年級學生在學習機率單元前後，對於機率概念的了解與代表性偏誤、可利用性偏誤Kahneman＆Tversky(1974)）及結果取向判斷偏誤(Konold1989)的異同。主要採量的分析，以自訂的問卷評量工具對受試者進行筆試。研究之樣本為學過國小簡單機率的國中九年級學生，問卷實施的方式為筆試，研究過程設計了前測、後測兩份試卷，並在施測前進行預試來評估試題信度、效度。前測問卷施測目的在探討學生在教學前利用常識、直觀來解題所可能造成的機率偏誤。教學過後也進行後測問卷的施測，並利用前後兩次施測的結果，探討國中生在教學前後機率判斷偏誤上的差異性。本研究之對象為中學九年級學生，共148位學生來進行施測，研究者依學生數學分組教學之成績，分為高分群、中間群、低分群，依據性別和分群兩個變項來進行分析。分析結果發現： 1.性別變項無顯著差異，故教學過程中不用特別考慮性別差異。 2.分群分析結果如下： (1)結果取向 在一次投擲問題中，前、後測問卷分析結果發現，中、高分群前後測整體表現皆無偏誤的比例較低分群來的少。 (2)代表性偏誤 在代表性偏誤中的正時近效應與負時近效應的問題中，低分群在前、後測仍犯有偏誤比中、高分群前後測都犯有偏誤的比例來的高。而改變樣本空間問題中，中、高分群在前、後測皆沒有偏誤的比比例較低分群高。複合樣本問題中探討代表性偏誤，低分群在前、後測仍然有偏誤的比例較中、高分群前、後測犯有偏誤高。 (3)可利用性偏誤 三群在前、後測的綜合表現並無顯著差異。 / The study aims to explore the differences of judgmental heuristic and biases on representativeness, availability (Kahneman &Tversky, 1974) and outcome approach (Konold, 1989) in terms of comprehension of probability concepts by ninth graders before and after studying the subject. The results are based on a quantitative analysis of the data collected from two sets of paper-and-pencil self-designed questionnaires. Pre-test questionnaire is meant to explore students’ potential probability biases when they work out the problems based on their previous knowledge and intuition prior to any instruction, while post-test questionnaire is conducted after instruction. The subjects in our experiment are composed of one hundred and forty-eight ninth graders who have only learned some basic probability concepts in primary school, and are classified into high-, mid- and low-scorer groups based on their previous academic performance. The findings suggest that: 1. Gender effect is not significantly different, so there is no need to pay attention to the gender difference in teaching process. 2. The results of analyses for different groups are listed in what follows. (1) Outcome approach: In the problem of tossing a coin, the results of pre-test and post-test indicate that the proportion of subjects who are without biases is higher in mid- and high-scorers than that of low-scorers. (2) Representativeness bias: In the problem of positive recency effect and negative recency effect, the proportion of committing biases is higher in low-scorers than that of mid- and high-scorers in both pre- and post-tests. In the problem of changes in sample spaces, the proportion of lack of biases is higher in mid- and high-scorers than that of low-scorers. In the composite-event problem that deals with representative biases, the proportion of committing biases among low-scorers is higher than that of mid- and high-scorers in both pre- and post-tests. (3) Availability bias: There is no significant difference in the overall performance of pre- and post-tests among the three groups.