台灣加權股價指數(TAIEX)，可以說是台灣最重要的經濟指數之一。在預測的方法中，時間序列分析一直都是熱門的課題，也是最常被使用來研究股價預測的方法。近年來，模糊理論在生醫、財務、社會、電機等各領域都有不錯的應用與發展 。本研究欲透過模糊區間的預測，主要是以時間序列預測台灣加權股價指數，來作為模糊區間精確度的探討，並針對區間時間序列進行模式的建構診斷和預測。最後我們將以2012年第一季(Q1)，每日交易股價指數的最高價與最低價作為實際研究的例子，同時也比較不同預測方法所得的結果。結果顯示模糊區間預測提供不同於傳統預測方法所得的資訊，希望能提供投資者另一種投資的參考。 關鍵字 : 台灣加權股價指數(TAIEX) 、模糊理論、模糊區間、區間預測 / Taiwan Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) is one of Taiwan's most important economic indicators. Among the forecasting methods of time series analysis is always a hot issue on the forecasting methods and is also the most commonly used to make the stock price predictions. In recent years , fuzzy theory makes a great of application and development in various fields , such as , biomedical , financial and social …etc.. For this study, through the fuzzy interval forecasting is mainly based on time series forecasting TAIEX as fuzzy interval accuracy of the construction of diagnosis and prediction of the mode and interval time series. Finally, we will take the daily highest / lowest stock index prices data in the first quarter of 2012 (Q1) for actual research example , and will compare different forecasting methods of the results. The results show that the fuzzy interval forecasting differented from the traditional one on the basis of these information. We hope to offer investors an alternative investment advice. Keyword : Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) 、 Fuzzy theory 、 Fuzzy interval、Interval forecasting.

華語由中國大陸引入台灣數十年後，因為政治上的阻隔、語言接觸的影響和語言實踐的結果，已經產生了顯著的變化。在發音、詞彙和語法等各個層面上，無論和引入台灣之前於中國大陸訂定的「標準國語」或是中國現行的「普通話」相比，都具有明顯的差異，語言學界將目前台灣通行的華語稱為「台灣華語」（Taiwan Mandarin） 「台灣華語」這一華語的變體是絕大多數台灣人日常生活時所採用的語言，作為華語中獨立的分支也是語言學界公認的事實，然而台灣的華語教學界鮮少將「台灣華語」的發音視為學習標的。華語教師教學時所使用的語言和台灣人民日常使用的語言存在顯著斷裂。 本研究檢視華語從一方之言到演變到「國語」的建構歷程以及華語在台灣的發展史，發現華語在台灣的發展和民族主義與國族認同的建構具有密切的關連。在回顧相關文獻與制度規章並佐以與現任華語教師的訪談結果後，發現台灣的對外華語教學界也普遍受到這種影響。教學的內容除了語言教學的專業考量外，尙存在著以往以獨尊華語、壓迫台灣其它語言的觀念及做法，認為「台灣華語」乃受「方言」污染而不純淨的語言，並以「華語」發源地的北京口音為嚮往對象。 最後，本研究從大眾傳媒的角度切入，探討「台灣華語」的最大公約數。認為「台灣華語」中許多成份已趨穩固，為絕大多數的台灣人所接受，也對全世界的華語人口具有相當的影響力。「台灣華語」的發音和繁體字、台灣式的辭彙與注音符號一樣應可視為「台灣華語」的重要成份，而能夠進入教學殿堂，作為外籍學生學習的對象。 / This study discusses the role of 'Taiwan Mandarin' in the field of teaching Mandarin as a second language. Results of the study indicate that Taiwan Mandarin is commonly disregarded, due to its association with other Taiwanese languages and the method in which it was introduced to the Taiwanese community. Decades after its introduction to Taiwan, Mandarin has evolved as a result of political and geographical separation from its origin in China, language contact, and local usage. This new variant, known as ‘Taiwan Mandarin’, has marked differences in terms of phonology, lexicon and syntax, and is viewed as a independent variant, different from ‘Guoyu’ or 'Putonghua' by many linguists. Although Taiwan Mandarin is, in practice, the most commonly used language by the Taiwanese people, it has been rejected by many language teachers and those who compile teaching materials for foreign learners. Language teachers are expected to teach an accent that is different from that of most Taiwan Mandarin speakers. This study investigates the standardization of modern Mandarin, and how it has developed in Taiwan. It shows that the enforcement of Chinese nationalism and identity is closely related to the popularaization of Mandarin in Taiwan. After reviewing related studies, regulation of teaching proficiency tests, and interviewing language teachers, it has been demonstrated that Chinese nationalism has also influenced the teaching of Mandarin as a second language in Taiwan. Taiwanese Mandarin phonology is commonly associated with the result contaminated by other Taiwanese languages such as Holo and Hakka by language teachers, and hence only the Beijing dialect is considered standard and desirable. Based on the findings of previous studies and interviews, this study suggests that the commonly accepted Taiwan Mandarin phonology can be gained through the language used in Taiwanese media, due to its steadiness and popular standing amongst Mandarin speakers world wide. Its unique phonology should be considered an important feature of Taiwan Mandarin, along with traditional characters, Taiwanese lexicon and phonetic symbols (注音符號), and it should be accepted in teaching methodology.

冷戰結束後，中國在政治、經濟、軍事、文化等面向均有大幅度的成長，國力的增強以及國際地位的提高，引發既有強權與大國的疑慮和不安，有關「中國威脅論」的論調層出不窮。國家形象的好壞，影響一國的前途與發展，以胡錦濤為領導核心的中國，將國際形象定位在「負責任的泱泱大國」、「和平發展的後興大國」和「建構和諧世界的重要推手」三個面向著手努力。 然而，國際民調機構數據顯示，中國訴求的國家形象與國際社會眼中實際的中國形象，仍帶有認知上的差距。造成兩者形象認知不和諧的原因，包括黑心商品氾濫、新聞自由度低、不和諧的威權國家和國際傳播力度不足。中國期望的國際形象與實際國際觀感不符，面對此困境，中國在傳播媒體上制訂了「自建渠道走出去」、「借力使力走進去」和「先發制人」三大策略。在策略面下，本研究以極具代表性的官方電視媒體－中國中央電視台為例，探討中國在實質面上的傳播手段。

創新是指將發明本身商品化，亦指將創意或發明轉換為產品或服務的過程。創新的結果是產生新產品、產生新製程、打開新市場、獲得新補給來源、更是任何產業新組織體系的實行。創造創新經濟是創新的最終目標。隨著1980年美國拜杜法案 (Bayh-Dole Act) 制定通過，我國參考其政策亦於1999年跟進制定與實施「科技基本法」。十年以來，我國學研單位之研發成果透過技術移轉與境外實施推及商業化落實之預期效益仍相當有限，顯見由於文化及產業環境不盡相同的關係，美國之經驗對我國並不全然適用。行政院國家科學委員會自87年起推動7項國家型科技計畫，投入總經費八百四十一億餘元，總計產出二千七百一十四項專利中，以技術移轉者一千五百零四項，取得權利金二十一點七六億餘元，技術移轉獲取的權利金收入與投資金額比率只達4.03%，效能不彰，因此監察院教育及文化委員會於99年5月13日通過監委黃煌雄提案，糾正國科會。由於在產業環境及文化型態上，歐洲與臺灣有許多相似之處；例如：中小企業在產業中的比重，產業升級與轉型的壓力，文化傳統中對穩定及安全的依賴，研發體系與產業界相對的疏離等等。事實上，歐盟為了加強科技研發與創新之間的聯繫，採取一連串有益中小企業的措施，在這些機制與措施的影響下，歐盟各學術研究機構不論在專利申請、佈局與技術移轉、授權的發展方面已經有後來居上的態勢。因此，本研究擬藉研究、分析歐盟相關的創新策略和產學合作運作模式，包括里斯本政策（Lisbon Strategy）、歐洲2020政策（The Europe 2020 Strategy）、最近一期的第七期科研架構計畫（Seventh Framework Programme; FP7）、歐洲投資基金（European Investment Fund; EIF）、歐洲各地技術平台（European Technology Platforms; ETPs）、以及瑪麗亞凱利人力網絡系統（Marie Curie Networks）的組織架構、資金來源等，期能提供我國相關單位實際執行創新科學技術之規劃產生、產出技術之經營與技轉等，可茲借鏡之制度與作法。 / Innovation is the commercialization of the invention itself. Innovation is the process of translating an idea or invention into a good or service that creates value or for which customers will pay. Innovation brings the introduction of new goods, new methods of production, the opening of new markets, the conquest of new sources of supply, and the carrying out of a new organization of any industry. The final object of innovation is to create economic benefits. “Science and Technology Act” of Taiwan referring to the Bayh-Dole Act of U.S.A. was enacted in 1999. During the past ten years, the universities and research institutions in Taiwan worked with limited results in the field of research and development. The effectiveness through technology transfer and off-shore technology transfer was quite limited in Taiwan. Obviously, the U.S.A. experiences are not totally fit to Taiwan, because of different cultural and environmental factors. National Science Council of Taiwan was corrected by Control Yuan of Taiwan because of their low effectiveness to carry out the National Science and Technology Projects. National Science Council of Taiwan spent 84.1 billions NT dollars on seven National Science and Technology Projects, but there are only 2.176 billions NT dollars feedback through technology transfer, only 4.03% of the investment. Europe and Taiwan are quite similar in industrial and cultural environments, such as the proportion of small and medium enterprises in the industry, the heavy pressure of Industrial upgrading and transformation, the dependence of the stability and security of the cultural traditions, and the relative alienation between R & D system and industry. In fact, in order to strengthen the links between the scientific and technological R & D and innovation, European Union took a serious of useful measures. Under those measures, the universities and research institutes in European Union have come from behind the trend, whether in the patent application, the technology transfer, and the patent licensing. The aim of this study is to provide Taiwanese government the actual implementation of the innovation of science and technology planning by analyzing the innovative strategies, the industry-university cooperation mode of operation, the organizational structure of innovative R & D system, and the funding sources of innovation development in EU, including the Lisbon Strategy, the Europe 2020 Strategy, the Seventh Framework Programme, the European Investment Fund, the European Technology Platforms, and the Marie Curie Networks.

本研究主係探討以投資者持有本國股票作為基礎投資組合，利用台灣五十成份股投資組合及金融期貨指數之月報酬率資料形成效率前緣，然後將本研究所選取之黃金產業GOX指數或以黃金現貨價格兩種黃金商品投資組合分別加入基礎投資組合中，觀察每個投資組合標的加入前後之投資機會集合之變化，是否基礎投資組合之效率前緣進一步向左偏移，並比較其優劣。此外進一步探討在兩種黃金投資組合加入基礎投資組合，分別在股市多頭及空頭市場時會不會產生相同的效果；並且藉由中央大學台灣經濟發展研究中心所調查訂定的消費者信心指數，以中位數區分為信心指數高或信心指數低兩組情境，並將兩種黃金商品投資組合在不同的情境依序分別加入基礎投資組合中，其基礎投資組合之效率前緣是否皆仍進一步向左偏移。實證結果發現，黃金現貨帶給基礎資產投資機會集合的貢獻，明顯優於黃金產業GOX指數，當檢定資產為黃金產業GOX指數時，「切點投資組合」差異W_1統計值上皆不具統計顯著性，整體而言當黃金產業GOX指數在加入投資組合之後，我們認為大部份的效果是來自分散原有的投資組合風險；然而黃金現貨在改善投資機會集合的貢獻上，來自「最小變異數投資組合」及「切點投資組合」的改善皆有顯著的效果。

本論文主要在探討台灣的非營利組織(Non-profit Organization, NPO)使用Facebook的情形。根據台灣外交部所建檔的非營利組織名冊，找出其中99個非營利組織的Facebook頁面並加以分析其內容，利用這樣的第一手資料，來了解台灣的NPO如何組織和規劃其Facebook平台，來作為一個傳播媒介。 本論文以1998年Kent與Taylor所提出的五大對話原則理論來分析非營利組織使用社群網站的情形，有三點發現：第一，本論文發現，有些非營利組織網站的分類太過細微，有些又太不具代表性；第二，非營利組織在Facebook上的影響力並不大；第三，本論文發現通常組織本身很少在Facebook上與使用者互動，也就是說，它們鮮少回應或是評論其他使用者的貼文和意見，組織成員並不會直接在Facebook上展開對話和溝通。本論文認為NPO使用Facebook並沒有形成一個共通的模式或規模，而是非常隨機的，沒有一個變數能夠真正具有指標意義地用來評價一個NPO粉絲頁面的品質，這大致上可以勾勒出台灣的NPO使用Facebook的情形。 / This thesis examines the use of Facebook pages by nonprofit organizations (NPOs) in Taiwan. The sample for this study was constructed using the official list of Taiwanese NPOs found on the Internet site Taiwan NGO (www.taiwanngo.tw), held by The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of China (TAIWAN). A total of 99 NPOs’ Facebook pages were content analyzed, therefore this thesis used primary data. The theory used to analyze the use of the social networking site by the NPOs was the Five Dialogical Principles of the Internet proposed by Kent and Taylor (1998). Firstly, it was found that some categories of NPOs are over-represented while others are under-represented. Secondly, it was found that very little influences the way NPOs communicate on their Facebook pages. Finally, it was discovered that associations seldom interact with their users, they don not respond or comment on users’ posts or comments; associations typically do not talk directly to their fans. A global image of the use of Facebook pages by NPOs in Taiwan is given. Finally, it was found that NPOs used Facebook pages very randomly. None of the variables seem to dictate the quality of the page.

資料串流探勘是一個重要的研究領域，因為在現實中有許多重要的資料以串流的形式產生或被收集，金融市場的資料常常是一種資料串流，而通常這類型資料的本質是變動性大的。在這篇論文中我們運應了資料串流探勘的技術去預測台灣加權指數期貨的漲跌。對機器而言，預測期貨這種資料串流並不容易，而困難度跟概念飄移的種類與程度或頻率有關。概念飄移表示資料的潛在分布改變，這造成預測的準確率會急遽下降，因此我們專注在如何處理概念飄移。首先我們根據實驗的結果推測台灣加權指數期貨可能存在高頻率的概念飄移。另外實驗結果指出，使用偵測概念飄移的演算法可以大幅改善預測的準確率，甚至對於原本表現不好的演算法都能有顯著的改善。在這篇論文中我們亦整理出專門處理各類概念飄移的演算法。此外，我們提出了一個多分類器演算法，有助於偵測「重複發生」類別的概念飄移。該演算法相比改進之前，其最大的特色在於不需要使用者設定每個子分類器的樣本數，而該樣本數是影響演算法的關鍵之一。 / Data stream mining is an important research field, because data is usually generated and collected in a form of a stream in many cases in the real world. Financial market data is such an example. It is intrinsically dynamic and usually generated in a sequential manner. In this thesis, we apply data stream mining techniques to the prediction of Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index Futures or TAIEX Futures. Our goal is to predict the rising or falling of the futures. The prediction is difficult and the difficulty is associated with concept drift, which indicates changes in the underlying data distribution. Therefore, we focus on concept drift handling. We first show that concept drift occurs frequently in the TAIEX Futures data by referring to the results from an empirical study. In addition, the results indicate that a concept drift detection method can improve the accuracy of the prediction even when it is used with a data stream mining algorithm that does not perform well. Next, we explore methods that can help us identify the types of concept drift. The experimental results indicate that sudden and reoccurring concept drift exist in the TAIEX Futures data. Moreover, we propose an ensemble based algorithm for reoccurring concept drift. The most characteristic feature of the proposed algorithm is that it can adaptively determine the chunk size, which is an important parameter for other concept drift handling algorithms.

在傳統的企業思維中，價值乃是由企業創造的，由企業單獨決定其產品和服務提供什麼價值，消費者僅僅代表對公司產品的需求；但隨著產業環境的發展，尤其是網路經濟時代的來臨，生產者與消費者之間的界限開始模糊。在過去資訊單向流通的網路世界中，人們在網路上代表的僅僅是一個創造流量的虛擬人物，然而隨著資訊科技的進步，網路技術的發展，人們在網際網路中開始彼此協作，發揮集體智慧向全世界發聲，即「價值共創」的概念。從Linux開放原始碼成功以來，許多企業已經逐漸了解到使用者參與創新、使用者虛擬社群參與企業產品開發的重要性，企業不再能獨自生產和管理知識，而是需要與它們的使用者共同創造知識；同時，人們也了解到透過結合價值共創的概念，虛擬社群平台可以發揮多大的效用，並且在其他領域也有許多類似概念的應用。 科技的協助讓使用者可依據其個別的興趣、需求等動機組成或進入不同的興趣型虛擬社群平台，此類平台除了結合對某一特定議題或事物有共同喜好的人們、高度人際之間的互動與溝通、經由網站所提供之平台分享交流彼此的心得與看法之外，尚有組織設計正式化程度低與集權化低之特色，以及此類社群對於參與者無特殊專業知識與技能之進入門檻之特色。因上述之特色，興趣型虛擬社群平台需要集眾多使用者之分享，才能在無特殊專業門檻的情況下，以內容累積出具有價值之資料庫。 本研究針對興趣型虛擬社群平台進行探討，透過文獻中得知之社群經營成功關鍵要素：「價值共創的環境」、「誘因機制」、「知識管理」檢視個案興趣型虛擬社群平台，並發現三者之間有順序性之關係。首先透過良好設計的「價值共創」社群平台環境，吸引使用者參與，其結果可以加強社群平台自身之競爭優勢。第二階段興趣型社群平台應該透過明顯且簡易得到之金錢誘因吸引使用者，使其有動機參與進入興趣型社群平台，而在使用者數量提升之後，透過管理機制之設計，產生心理誘因，加強使用者之重複拜訪與投入的行為，即透過正確而有效的「誘因機制」提升興趣型社群平台運作之人流量與忠誠度。於累積足夠的使用者及高度黏著度之後，興趣型社群平台應該透過「知識管理」建立機制，將社群平台上累積之知識形成資料庫，以吸引更多的使用者加入，串聯具互補性質的合作夥伴，同時促進更高的社群平台黏著度，並且進而利用資料庫，創造可能的多樣化獲利來源。 / The research aims to focus on the communities of interest, which is now the mainstream of communities on the Internet. With respect to the lack of related research on the operation of communities of interest, this research will examine three factors that are key to the operation of this kind of communities and research how these three factors work and how business managers plan a strategy for the operation of communities of interest. The research will take iPeen and Fandora, both of which are rising stars communities in Taiwan, as case study communities. The study reveals that there are some factors that are key to the success of communities. By examining the factors, we can see how they work and how they would lead to the victory in the heated online communities war. According to the research, a value co-creation environment, the incentives and knowledge management would be the key to the success of operation of communities of interest. The management team of communities of interest can use these three key factors step by step through strategic planning. In the final conclusion and suggestion, the research aims at the future participants in the industry and provides solutions to the strategic planning regarding previously found key factors and referred cases.

隨著競爭的激烈，現今半導體晶圓代工產業面臨研發支出不斷增加以及晶圓製造廠的投資門檻越發提高之環境。然而在這晶圓代工競賽中，金融市場投資者也開始關注到金額龐大的資本資出是否能為公司創造更多的價值，以及其投資決策與融資決策對晶圓代工公司營運績效影響為何。 本研究以經濟附加價值(Economic Value Added; EVA)作為衡量半導體晶圓代工產業的公司價值指標，利用縱橫資料模型(panel data)驗證晶圓代工公司的EVA與市場價值之關連性，並探討影響半導體晶圓代工公司的價值創造的因子。此外，本研究亦針對半導體景氣循環指標及晶圓代工公司價值創造的關係進行研究。最後本研究以個案方式分析半導體晶圓代工公司價值創造之原因。 實證結果發現晶圓代工公司的EVA與市場價值具有高度的關連性與解釋能力，代表EVA確實能反映企業的真實價值。本文亦發現公司投入愈多的資本支出、追求高的營業利潤率、降低資金成本都會為半導體晶圓代工公司創造更多的價值。然而營收增加、營運資金投入的多寡及半導體景氣循環指標等因素對晶圓代工公司價值創造並無明顯之影響。此外，本文個案研究歸納出晶圓代工公司創造公司價值之因素共有下四點：一、擴大對現有的投入資本的報酬率。二、利用低利率環境和低β值，以降低資金成本。三、維持技術領先的競爭優勢，使公司擁有一段較長的時間能產生高於正常報酬率。四、加大資本資出進行新的投資，以賺取超額報酬。 / Advanced semiconductor manufacturing is at an inflection point with escalating R&D intensity and capital expenditure requirements for new fabrication plants of leading process. However, investors are concerned whether tremendous capital expenditure could generate return and create value to the company in this competition. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the foundry firms’ value by adopting the concept of Economic Value Added (EVA), measuring the excessive return that a company can generate over the cost of capital. At first, this study tests the power of EVA to capture the relationship between a company’s market value and EVA of foundries. As EVA may be affected by numerous financial value drivers, this research examines and ascertains which factors are relevant. Furthermore, this study also monitors the EVA of these firms to determine their relationship with the semiconductor cyclical index. The primary findings of this study are illustrated as below. EVA is systematically linked to market value in foundry industry. In addition, foundries with higher operating profit margin and higher capital expenditure could create more firms’ value while foundries with higher cost of capital and financial flexibility would destroy its value. Moreover, foundries’ EVAs are not been significantly affected by growth of sales, investments in working capital, and semiconductor cycle index. Furthermore, this paper also conducts a case study to analyze why TSMC creates EVA continuously: (1)TSMC increases returns on existing capital while holding WACC and invested capital constant. (2)TSMC reduces the cost of capital by leveraging low interest rate and low beta. (3)TSMC makes new investments that earn returns greater than the WACC. (4)TSMC sustains the competitive advantage of technological leadership which enables the company to generate above-normal returns for a longer period.

No description available.