Aging population is becoming the potential social and economic problem for many governments all around the world. These countries including Taiwan are seeking for solutions for the increased healthcare spending. According to the United Nations’ population estimates, we are living in a rapidly aging world. The global share of what we call “senior” or people age over 65 is expected to rise from nearly 8% in 2015 to more than 14% by 2050. The situation in Taiwan is not much different. With increasing life expectancy and a birth rate that continues to decline, the aging population in Taiwan has become more and more obvious. Widespread adoption of Generic and Biosimilar drugs, as opposed to patented or brand name drugs, could help governments reduce healthcare costs and increase the reach of healthcare services. Patented drugs in the prescription drugs segment account for about 70% of total prescription spending in Taiwan. However, the share is set to decline gradually under pressure from government policies promoting the use of generic products and the increasing switches from prescription segment to OTC segment (RX-to-OTC). We expect the penetration of generic drugs in Taiwan OTC drugs segment to increase as the generic drug market has continued to gain prominence within the pharmaceutical sectors in recent years. Despite the fact that OTC generic drug market is a highly competitive market in Taiwan, Genedex Co. still aims to provide good quality generic drugs at a competitive price to meet the generic drugs demands. In addition, Genedex Co. understands the ability to quickly bring new products to the market will play a large role in the future success. Thus, product innovation and differentiation will also be the center focus in the business model. Looking into the future, Genedex Co. expects to see growth at a more rapid pace starting from year 2020 as newly developed generic OTC drugs will be introduced to the market to compete with the branded counterparts and also expects to achieve a more solid presence in the market by year 2021.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(文学) / 甲第18439号 / 文博第652号 / 新制||文||605(附属図書館) / 31317 / 京都大学大学院文学研究科行動文化学専攻 / (主査)教授 落合 恵美子, 教授 松田 素二, 教授 石川 義孝 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Letters / Kyoto University / DGAM

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(経済学) / 乙第12954号 / 論経博第387号 / 新制||経||275(附属図書館) / 32353 / (主査)教授 矢野 誠, 教授 関口 格, 教授 神事 直人 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(文学) / 乙第13129号 / 論文博第635号 / 新制||文||652(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院文学研究科行動文化学 / (主査)教授 石川 義孝, 教授 杉浦 和子, 教授 松田 素二 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当 / Doctor of Letters / Kyoto University / DGAM

人口政策的制定需要人口推估作基礎。近年世界各國人口推估逐漸從專家意見推估走向機率推估，常見的機率推估分成三大類，隨機推估、模擬情境、推估誤差三種，本文所使用的人口推估方法為隨機推估法結合生育率之模擬情境方法，在人口變動要素組合法 (Cohort Component Method) 之下輔以電腦模擬的區塊拔靴法 (Block Bootstrap)，針對台灣地區與台灣北、中、南、東四地區進行人口推估。另外，本文試圖在隨機模型人口推估中加入遷移人口之考量，以期針對遷移人口在數量與其影響上都能有較深入的了解，比較區塊拔靴法與經建會推估之差異後發現遷移之考量確實會影響人口推估之結果。 / 針對與全區相符的小區域人口推估，本文亦提出可使得推估一致的方法，但其缺點為限制了生育、死亡人口要素之變動性。此推估在總數上與隨機推估方法差異不大，但在人口結構上則有明顯的差別，此差別可能是來自於死亡率在四區間差異造成。 / Population projection is important to policy making, and only with accurate population projection can the government achieve suitable policy planning and improve the welfare of the society. The most popular and well-known population projection method is the Cohort Component method, proposed since 1930’s. The trends of future fertility, mortality and migration are required, in order to apply the cohort component method. Currently in Taiwan, these trends are determined according to experts’ opinions (or scenario projection) and three future scenarios are assumed: high, median and low scenarios. One of the drawbacks in applying experts’ opinions is that the projection results of these three scenarios do not have the meaning in probability. / To modify the expert’ opinions and let the projection results carry the meaning in probability, many demographic researchers have developed stochastic projection methods. The proposed stochastic methods can be categorized into three groups: stochastic forecast, random scenario and ex post methods. In this study, we introduce these stochastic methods and evaluate the possibility of applying the methods in projecting the population in Taiwan. / In this study we use block bootstrap, a computer simulation and stochastic forecast method, to determine the trends of future fertility, mortality and migration in Taiwan, and combine it with the cohort component method for population projection in Taiwan. We compare the projection results with those from the Council for Economic Planning and Development (a scenario projection). We found that the block bootstrap is a possible alternative to the scenario projection in population projection, and the numbers of migration is small but have a non-ignorable influence on the future population. However, we also found that the block bootstrap alone might not be appropriate for population projection in small areas.

The business plan is to establish a company organization in providing financial education training service to aged people to assist them in preparing their retirement (for pre-retired group), or improve the quality of the retirement life (for retired group). The main business scope is to develop a series of training courses with subjects from basic financial management concepts to advance topics, and introduce consultancy services (basic and premium) to customer. Besides that, regular forum and premium forum will be applied to as a tool to communicate with target audience. A SWOT analysis has been conducted to identify the macro and micro environment opportunities and constraints then. Base on the findings, a market research by performing 3-step screening process is carried with 3 parameters: demographic, education level, and geographic. The result shows that the pre-aged (55~64) group lives in Taipei city and New Taipei City is the most potential target market segment. Following the outcome of market research, a marketing mix in responding to the characteristics of the potential market is planned accordingly. Among items within the marketing mix, strategic alliances formed with financial institutes, mass medium, and other financial knowledge training centers are prioritized to be higher rankings due to the effectiveness and efficiency of resource leverage. A sensitivity analysis of financial plan by setting up three models of scenarios (pessimistic, expected, and optimistic) is performed next to determine the feasibility study of the financial outcome and break-even periods. To conclude the business plan, four requirements need to be achieved to reach the success:  More outside fund need to be introduced at start-up  Pay-off time of investments need to be shortened  Operation cost need to be minimized  Differentiation of services need to be created

This study examine the reactions in different portfolios under demographic changes for a deeper scope of the equity market. By six features: 1) beta 2) volatility 3) non-systematic risk 4) size 5) B/M 6) D/P, we distribute stocks into high or low level groups and test the reactions in each of these 12 portfolio. Empirical results in this study do suggest an increasing required risk premium for a growing population in retired-age (65+) group and a decreasing required risk premium for a growing population in middle-aged (44-64) group. Both effects in middle- and retired-age groups are stronger in a long time-horizon. Changes in demographic structure significantly add explanatory power to equity premium regressions involving Fama-French three factors. Moreover, we found retired-age population significantly demand more premium for high volatility stocks, growth stocks and large-cap stocks. However, there is no preference for any types of stock in middle-age population.

研究目標 1.將戶外活動作一適當之分類。 2.找出影響戶外活動參與之因素，及因素間、因素與活動參與間之關係 3.為新引進的戶外活動尋找目標市場並提供行銷建議。 4.對各種戶外活動人口作一描述，並對戶外活動服務業者及政府推廣機構提出行銷上之建議。 研究架構 本研究之結果可從多方面對行銷者帶來幫助，如果行銷者處於休閑產業，則可從人口統計變數、刺激追求、成就動機、兒時生活環境等構面來定位其目標市場，並將這些構面應用於廣告策略上。

影響地價之因素眾多，其對地價之影響方式及效果亦非常複雜。本文以台北市城中、 大安、松山及內湖四個行政區住宅用地為研究範圍，將地價變動劃分為一般變動及特 殊變動兩種；影響地價之因素亦劃分為一般因素及特殊因素。一般因素屬成長性、漸 進性與累積性因素；特殊因素則屬偶然性、突發性與繼續性因素。並按各種因素影響 範圍之大小，將地價分別按台北市及四行政區兩個階層來探討。 本研究共分為六章。第一章：緒論、第二章：台北市住宅用地地價變動分析、第三章 ：影響地價一般因素分析、第四章：影響地價特殊因素分析、第五章：寺介變動有關 課題及對策、第六章：結論與建議。 研究結果略以： 一、影響台北市及四行政區地價一般變動之因素，以全國人口總數及人口都市化之成 長速度最為重要。顯示地價長期上漲，殆係社會發展結果，非私人因素所造成；亦表 示全國性社會因素之變化，充分反映至台北市地價上面，其住宅用地供需範圍，當為 整個台灣地區。 二、影響台北市地價特殊變動之因素，為全國性社會經濟及政治因素。又可劃分為兩 類：一類為具有循環現象之經濟景氣因素，如經濟成長率之高低、新台幣對美元匯率 之高低、貨幣供給率之高低、儲蓄率之高低及物價之漲跌等項；另一項為重大事件因 素，如社會治安惡化及政治情勢之良幣等項。 三、行政區地價之特殊變動，原則上係受系統性因素（即影響台北市地價特殊因素） 影響，惟當非系統性因素（由行政區顯著影響地價因素所構成）之出現與分布不均衡 時，該行政區地價便會發生異常變動。影響行政區地價之顯著因素大部分為實質建設 因素，其項目及影響程度因行政區之不同而異。綜觀之，影響強度較大且影響範圍較 廣泛者依次為遊憩設施、國中國小、道路、新市區之開發及市場等項。其餘如環保設 施、交通設施及市地重劃等項亦有影響，惟強度或範圍均較小。容積率之影響效果仍 存疑，未獲定論。

將行銷學概念用來進行規劃表演藝術的推廣策略，因此將表演藝術觀賞者視為消費者 。消費者分析是進行策略規劃的重要依據，故消費者研究相當重要。消費者研究最初 是以人口變項為主，而為了深入了解消費者，因而發展出生活型態的研究取向，本論 文之研究核心是表演藝術觀賞者的生活型態。 生活型態的理論基礎源於心理學，到了一九六０年代被引用到行銷學領域。生活型態 是一個理論化、抽象化的概念，其操作化概念是心理統計變項。心理統計變項的測量 指標有兩部分：一是A.I.O.三面向，一是人口變項。本研究所採用的表演藝術觀賞者 之A.I.O.量表，有兩種，一是特定化量表，將表演藝術視為一種產品，測量與這種產 品有關的活動、興趣與意見。另一是一般化量表，測量觀賞者一般日常生活中的活動 、意見與興趣。 本研究以問卷調查方式，針對政治大學三年級學生進行調查，以因素分析及區別分析 為統計分析方法，探討表演藝術觀賞者與非觀賞者在生活型態方面有何不同。 本研究除了將「消費者行為」的理論應用到觀賞者研究之外，並可作為國內表演藝術 團體及單位推展表演藝術活動之參考。