雙層擔保債權憑證（CDO-squared）是目前全球資產證券化商品市場相當熱門之商品，回顧國內對信用風險之研究，極少有相關文獻或研究被提出。本研究乃以合成型雙層擔保債權憑證（synthetic CDO-squared）為主體，試圖以一套毋須進行蒙地卡羅模擬之半解析式評價模型為基礎，目的旨在探討雙層擔保債權憑證具有高投資收益的背後，所隱含之風險程度為何？廣泛探索各種不同分券（tranches）之風險特徵，透過比較分析使各個分券間之相互關係能環環相扣，進而對此商品之風險/報酬特性有全面性之瞭解並規劃合適避險策略。本研究在違約事件為條件式獨立的假設下，運用遞迴法則（recursive algorithm）及一個多維超立方體結構（hyper-cube）建構出雙層擔保債權憑證之損失分配，並以求得之評價模型為風險分析之基礎，得到下列發現與避險涵義：（1）雙層擔保債權憑證雖然標榜具有雙重的信用違約保護且能達到更大程度的投資組合分散，同時兼顧利潤與風險的平衡，但實際上卻是高槓桿程度的商品。（2）名目本金數額及分券信用評等之揭露無法反映分券風險本質，市場參與者需要仔細區分風險金額移轉數目與內含風險移轉程度之差異。（3）應用delta避險策略可以規避分券所面臨之市場風險，而使避險組合價值不受標的資產市場價差波動之影響，繼而經由避險成本之求算，可適當選用數個單一信用違約交換（single name CDS）或信用違約交換指數來進行有效之避險。

本研究探討台灣債券型基金的發展歷程、相關問題、及主管機關的因應措施，並介紹全球債券型基金資產規模前二大之美國及盧森堡的基金發展經驗，作為台灣債券型基金發展及監理的參考。此外，迴歸分析債券型基金資產規模的影響因素及基金資產規模對金融市場、貨幣總計數M2的影響。本研究實證結果顯示:（1）債券型基金資產規模分別與6個月期美元LIBOR及我國金融同業隔夜拆款利率，呈現顯著負相關；（2）債券型基金持有公司債及金融債與該等債券發行市場的榮枯，呈現顯著正相關；及（3）債券型基金資產規模分別與銀行定期存款、中長期放款、及貨幣總計數M2的成長，呈現顯著負相關。根據本研究的結果，對於健全我國債券型基金的發展，我們建議主管機關細分基金類型、強制投信公司設立獨立董事、強化基金市場機能的發揮等；建議投信投顧公會公布之資訊宜涵蓋銀行所募集的貨幣市場基金；建議投信公司加強風險管理並檢討基金經理人紅利給付方式；及建議中央銀行增列「M2+準貨幣市場基金」的成長目標區。 / The purpose of this paper is to study the development of bond funds in Taiwan. Besides, we introduce the development of bond funds in the United States and Luxemburg. Furthermore, we analyze the determinants of the bond fund assets, and effect of the bond funds on the financial market and monetary aggregate M2 in Taiwan. The main findings of empirical study are: （1）the bond fund assets has a significant negative relationship with 6-month USD LIBOR, Taiwan interbank oversight call-loan rate, respectively； （2）the bond fund’s investment of corporate bonds has a significant positive relationship with the prosperity of corporate bond’s issuance market； and（3）the bond fund assets has a significant negative relationship with the time deposits, long-term loans, and M2, respectively. According to the results of this study, we have the following suggestions. To the supervisory authority: subdivide the type of bond fund, investment trust CO. should establish independent directors compulsorily, reinforce funds market mechanism；to the Securities Investment Trust and Consulting Association of the ROC: fund information release should include money market funds raised by bank； to the investment trust CO.: strengthen risk management and review the bonus payment； to the central bank: set up the target zone of M2 plus quasi money market funds grew.

本研究致力於探討美國聯準會(FED)實施量化寬鬆政策(QE)與否，商業銀行資產負債表對於股價的影響。本文藉由總經指標(工業生產指數、製造業採購經理人指數)、利差變數(公司債利差、10年期公司債利差)，以及資產負債表變數(存款、貸款等)，對商業銀行股價進行解釋。並透過量化寬鬆政策(QE)的虛擬變數，了解該政策對股價的影響，以及實施該政策是否能夠改善資產負債表變數的顯著程度和影響方向。方法上，本文採用迴歸分析的方式進行實證分析。首先，研究以總經指標以及利差變數對股價進行解釋，且期間限定為量化寬鬆政策期間，藉此確認這兩類變數對股價的影響。後續則以加入資產負債表變數、量化寬鬆(QE)虛擬變數等，並將期間延伸至15年，以進一步釐清實施量化寬鬆(QE)政策的影響。本文實證結果顯示，美國量化寬鬆政策對於商業銀行股的股價有負面影響，且活期存款對股價的影響亦為負向。 / The thesis focuses on the FED policy – Quantitative Easing (QE) and how the policy affect the S&P 500 commercial bank sub-index return. Based on past researches, the article includes macroeconomic variables (IP, PMI), term structure variables, bank balance sheet variables (deposits and loans), and a QE dummy variable. With these variables, the outcomes are generated by regression. It can be observed that with the implementation of QE policy, stock returns are negative on average. Moreover, large banks would benefit from provide more commercial loans; on the other hand, small banks would obtain a positive return by lending more consumer loans. Demand deposits are another significant variable which would have negative impact on stock returns.

在合成型抵押擔保債券憑證評價上，Kalemanova et al. (2007) 提出應用大樣本一致性資產組合(large homogeneous portfolio ; LHP)假設之單因子NIG關聯結構模型，配適比常態分配好。林聖航(民101)分析結果顯示NIG(2)模型優於MIX模型、NIG(1)模型、Gaussian模型與CSN模型。本文透過Lee and Hu(1996)提出的F分配線性組合之近似方法模擬出穩定摺積性質和封閉性以縮短計算時間。導出新的單因子F關聯結構模型與過去的模型做比較，並且會使用26期報價資料。文中將常態分配、F自由度10、、F自由度200、F自由度100000四種單因子關聯結構模型作模型比較分析。最後實證分析結果顯示F分配模型大部分資料配適都不佳，但是2008/11/25以及2009/3/31中配適比高斯分配還佳，2009/3/31甚至配適的比單因子NIG(2)模型、MIX模型以及、NIG(1)模型、高斯模型與CSN模型更佳，2008/11/25以及2009/3/31中市場報價的特色為0-3%分券的報價分別為64.03%及66.83% 而其他時期的0-3%分券報價均未超過50% 。各期當3-6%分券報價有負值時，單因子F(10, 10)關聯結構模型雖然表現不佳尤其在但0-3%分券表現很差，但3-6%分券都配適的很理想，顯示單因子F關聯結構模型在某些特殊狀況時可以表現出良好配適。

2008年全球金融風暴為歐洲債券危機埋下隱患，歐元區國家紛紛進行紓困以提振經濟，導致財政赤字更加嚴重。歐元區各國因採行單一貨幣而喪失獨立的貨幣政策，使得融資工具受限。信用評等機構又先後對周邊國家調降評等，無形中擴大危機。歐洲債券危機不僅讓歐洲經濟暨貨幣同盟的結構缺陷再度浮上檯面，亦引發歐元區解決方案的認知分歧，形成以德國為首的撙節派和法國代表的反撙節派間的對立，政治界興起一片波瀾。 為分析未來歐洲統合的方向和進程，本論文從政治和經濟面了解經濟暨貨幣同盟的建立與歐洲債券危機的發生，並透過自由政府間主義的分析層次，探究未來歐洲統合的發展。經由上述方法，研究發現就德法目前國內情勢和相互交往來看，未來歐洲統合的發展可能維持現狀，而不會開倒車或形成完全的超國家建制。至於理論是否和事實重合，又有待日後持續觀察。 / After the outbreak of the European Debt Crisis since 2009, the necessity and possibility of the further integration is once again highly valued. To analyze the future development of the European integration, the thesis looks into the establishment of the Economic and Monetary Union and the outbreak of the European Debt Crisis. In addition, it looks into the relation between Germany and France through the approach of the Liberal Intergovermentalism to explore the future development of the European integration. The result of the research demonstrates that it is likely European integration will remain at status quo, instead of advancing integration to the establishment of supranational institutions, nor leading to the breakup of the European Union. While Liberal Intergovernmentalism provides the integration analysis with a feasible approach, whether the result of the research coincides with the future development of the European integration still remains to be seen.

信用連結債券的價值主要取決於所連結資產池內的資產違約情況，因此過去有許多文獻在評價時會利用Copula模擬各資產的違約時點，或是用Factor Copula估算他們在各時點下的違約機率。而本研究以Gaussian Factor Copula模型為主軸，對資產池違約機率做估計，以得到連結該資產池的信用連結債券價值。但過去文獻較常以給定參數的方式進行評價，本研究進一步利用市場實際資料估出模型參數並加入產業因子，以期達到符合市場的效果。 本研究利用已知的違約資訊對照模型結果，發現在給定原油價格成長率、產業GDP成長率及CAPM殘差之後，使用Factor Copula模型在資產池小且違約比例過高時容易低估損失，主要原因在於各資產的違約機率並非逼近1。且模型算出的預期損失會隨著距今時間變長而增加，但若資產池實際上沒有更多違約公司，模型的結果就可能會高估損失。而所有的變數又以參考價差對該商品價值的影響最大，因參考價差的數值取決於該公司的信用評等，因此可知信用連結債券價值主要還是與各公司信評有最大相關。 / The value of credit linked notes depends on whether the reference entities in the linked asset pool default or not, so some previous studies used Copula model to simulate the times to default or Factor Copula model to get the default probability. In this paper, with the Gaussian Factor Copula model adopted and industry factors taken into account, the default probability is estimated in order to obtain the value of the credit linked notes. Then, unlike other previous studies using the given parameters, this paper evaluated the parameters by using the model as well as market data, hoping to achieve the goal that results can reflect the real market situation. With real default information compared with the modeling results, three findings can be drawn given the growth rate of oil price, the growth rate of industrial GDP and the residuals of CAPM. First, the loss will be underestimated if the asset pool is small and the default proportion is too high mainly because not all the default probability approximates one. Second, expected default probability will be directly proportional to the time period between the present and the expected moment. So if there are not so many defaulting companies, then the loss might be overestimated. Last, the reference spread has the most impact on the product value among all the variables, and as we know, the reference spread of a company depends on its credit rating. Therefore, compared with other factors, credit rating remains the most essential to credit linked notes.

本論文在Li(2000)的Gaussian Copula的背景之下，將資產價值服從常態分配的假設改為服從Variance Gamma分配，利用Copula模型模擬債權群組內各個標的資產的違約時點，並利用蒙地卡羅抽取亂數的方法，取平均之後求得信用連結債券所連結的資產債權組合價值。除此之外，本論文比較假設資產價值服從常態分配、Student t分配和Variance Gamma分配下，計算求得的資產池價值。實證結果顯示，假設服從Variance Gamma分配最接近市場的真實違約資料。這是由於Variance Gamma分配具備Student t分配的厚尾性質，能有效捕捉常態分配缺少的尾端損失機率，並可調整偏態係數和峰態係數，可以求出更接近市場價值的評價結果。最後，在敏感度分析方面，改變影響資產池價值的兩大因子：平均違約回收率和資產間相關係數。結果顯示，當平均違約回收率高於0.7時，相關係數越高的債權群組，其資產池價值亦越高。若平均違約回收率越低且資產間相關係數越高的話，越容易出現一起違約的現象，因此資產池價值會下降。因此投資人在挑選信用連結債券時，應注意所連結的標的資產群組內資產報酬的相關性，最好避免相關性高的資產群組，以免金融海嘯來臨的時候，多個資產同時違約的情形發生。

信用連結債券的價值主要取決於所連結資產池內的資產違約狀況，使得原始信用風險債券在到期時的本金償付受到其他債券的信用風險影響，因此如何準確且客觀的估計資產池內違約機率便一個很重要的課題，而過去文獻常以給定參數的方式，並且假設資產間的違約狀況彼此獨立下進行評價，對於聯合違約機率的捕捉並不明顯，因此本文延伸Factor Copula模型，建立信用連結債券之評價模型，該模型考慮了資產間的違約相關程度，以期達到符合市場的效果，同時配合統計之因素分析法，試圖找出影響商品價格背後的市場因子。 本研究利用延伸的評價模型以及Copula法，對實際商品做一訂價探討，結果發現，不管是使用樣本內或樣本外的資料去評價時，本研究的評價模型表現都優於Copula法，表示說評價時額外加入市場因子的考慮，對於評價是有正向的幫助；而在因子選取方面，我們選取18項因子後，經由因素分析共可萃取出三大類因素，藉由觀察期望價格與市場報價的均方根誤差，發現國家因素以及產業因素均對於商品價格有所影響，而全球因素對於商品不但沒有顯著影響，同時加入後還會使得計算出的商品期望價格更偏離市場報價，代表說並不是盲目的加入許多因子就能使得模型計算出的價格貼近市場報價，則是要視加入的因子對於資產的影響程度而定。 對於後續研究的建議：由於本研究的實證中存在一些假設，使得評價過程中並不完全符合現實市場現況，若能得到市場上的真實數據，或是改以隨機的方式來計算，相信結果會更貼近市場報價；同時，藉由選取不同的因子來評價，希望能找出國家因素、產業因素以外的其他影響因子，可助於我們更了解此項商品背後的影響因素，使得投資人能藉由觀察市場因子數據來判斷商品未來價格走勢。 / Value of the credit-linked notes depend on the pool of assets whether default or not, so the promised payoff of credit-linked notes is affected by other risky underlying assets. Therefore, how to estimate the probability of default asset pool accurately and objectively will be a very important issue. In the past literature, researchers usually use given parameters, and assume assets probability of default are independent from each other under valuation. Furthermore, it is not obvious to capture the joint probability of default. Thus, this article extends the Factor Copula Model to provide a new methodology of pricing credit-linked notes, which consider the default correlation between the extent of assets in order to achieve result in line with market and with Factor Analysis method added, trying to figure out the impact of commodity price factor behind the market. In the empirical analysis, pricing the actual commodity issued by LB Baden-Wuerttemberg using extend model and Copula model, we found that no matter choose in-the-sample or out-the-sample data to valuation, the models in this article are superior to Copula model by compare the root-mean-square deviation(RMSE). It means add the market factors into our valuation is beneficial. In terms of selection factors, we select eighteen factors prepared by Morgan Stanley Capital International, and three categories of factors may be extracted from Factor Analysis method. By observing RMSE, both national factors and industry factors will influence on the commodity, but world factors not only did not significantly impact on the commodity, but also add it to calculate the expected price further from the market price. Representative said not blind join the many factors can make the model to calculate the price close to the market price, it is a factor depending on the degree of influence of the added asset. For the suggestion of future research. The fact that the presence of empirical assumptions in this study, result in the evaluation process is not entirely realistic to market situation. We suggest to get the real data on the market or use random way to calculate, we believe that the outcome will be closer to the market price. Meanwhile, by selecting different factors to evaluate, trying to discover further factors which significantly impact on the commodity; it will help us better to understand the factors behind the commodity, so investors can predict commodity future prices by observing the market data.

過去研究均指出審計委員會成員若具有財務或會計專才可以提升審計委員會執行效率與效果，降低公司異常交易與內空缺失的風險，進而提升財務報表品質，並降低外部財務報表使用者與公司內部之資訊不對稱情況。本研究探討在公開發行債券過程中，若發行公司審計委員會具有財務或會計專長，債務條款是否會改變。研究結果發現，債券投資人於選擇投資債券時，確實會考量到債券發行公司審計委員會成員之會計專長，然而，沒有證據顯示財務專長在其考量範圍內，因會計專長可提高財務報表可信度，降低資訊不對稱問題，減少債券投資人所面臨的投資風險，因此，若債券發行公司之審計委員會成員具備會計專才，債券市場將給予較低的債券利率以及較優惠的條件。 / The extant literature reveals that audit committee (AC) members with financial or accounting expertise can enhance the effectiveness of AC in monitoring the financial reporting quality. In this study, I focus on the effects of financial and accounting experts on the effectiveness of AC from bondholders’ point of view, respectively. First, I find no evidence that the presence of financial experts on AC, either alone or jointly with accounting experts, are significantly related to loan terms. Second, I find that bondholders charge lower interest rate, offer longer maturity, and are less likely to require convertible bonds issuance or require collateral to firms whose AC have at least one accounting expert or only accounting experts. Third, I further find that the association between AC experts and loan terms is driven more by accounting experts than by financial experts. Given the prior results of a negative relationship between accounting experts and loan terms, firms could enhance their financial reporting quality by appropriately structuring AC with accounting experts, thereby rewarding better loan terms.

我國基於與國際接軌之政策，會計制度預計於2013年全面採用國際財務報導準則(IFRS），其中以IFRS 4影響保險業最深，40號公報即轉譯IFRS 4而成，可以預期台灣保險業的會計及財務報導將有很重大的轉變。 由目前國外相關實施IFRS 4對會計與財務報表的潛在影響的各種文章、學者討論中可知，壽險公司的將面臨險峻的挑戰。這些挑戰包含會計盈餘波動增加、資金成本之上升、與報表使用者溝通策略的改變、財務報導成本增加、商品設計的改變等等。 為了評估實施40號公報造成的影響，本研究透過分析不同保險商品之負債適足性測試，並利用相關圖表說明本公報第二階段之實施損益及相關資產負債科目造成之影響以及利率敏感度分析。 研究發現實施40號公報可能使保險公司面臨增提鉅額負債的壓力，並建議保險公司應調整商品組合，更注重資產負債管理，以緩和對損益及相關準備金科目的影響。此外，由於我國目前係共同採用監理會計與一般公認會計原則的相關規定，建議壽險公司與監理機構應研擬相關配套之修正方法，以避免因以公平價值作為衡量基礎時，遭遇監理法令規定衍生之相關問題。 / Adapting to the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) will be required in Taiwan in the near future. Among the standards, IFRS 4 has the most important impact on the insurance industry. SFAS 40 was translated from IFRS 4, so the insurance industry in Taiwan is going to undergo a substantial change in accounting and financial reporting requirements. According to the assessment of the potential impact of the new IFRS accounting and reporting system to date which largely been found in foreign trade literature, insurance industry business leaders’ comments and conflicting conclusions of expert commentators, the insurance industry faces serious challenges because of IFRS 4. The challenges include increase of accounting volatility, higher cost of capital, shift in communication policy, increase in the cost of reporting, substantial change of product design and so on. n order to evaluate the impact of SFAS 40, this paper offers several numerical examples to show the results of the liabilities adequacy test. Further, this paper analyze the difference from the figures and offers some scenario simulations to discuss the impact of interest rate changing. The result of this paper shows, if we adapt SFAS 40 phase II , the liability of the insurance company will increase largely. The paper suggest that the Taiwanese insurance industry should change life insurance product design, emphasize the importance of asset and liability management, moreover, our government and the insurance industry need to find some modified methods to solve some critical problems arisen from solvency regulations.