匯率變動保險乃是針對出口廠商在浮動匯率制度下經營國際貿易時，因匯率變動之不 確定性風險，致發生盈虧之現象，而加以保障的輸出保險業務。本論文主要即在介紹 這項保險業務在國外操作之情況，並對國內若實施匯率變動保險時，可能涉及到的各 項有關問題，作進一步之研討。 第一章：說明本研究之動機、限制和方法。 第二章：略述匯率變動風險和匯率變動保險之意義與關係。計分三節。 第三章：描述日本、西德、法國、印度、比利時、荷蘭等六個國家對匯率變動保險之 作法。計分七節。 第四章：探究整廠輸出與匯率變動保險之關係。計分二節。 第五章：為五研究之結論與建議，並包括匯率變動保險可在國內推行的原因與結果。

第一節為研究之動機與目的, 說明何以會撰寫本文。第二節為研究的方法: 內就1.單 一方程式與聯立方程式分析法之比較; 2.商品分類之應用; 3.資料之收集與編制。 第二章為理論模型之探討, 分成三節, 第一節為前人研究所用模型之回顧; 第二節為 本文所用模型之設立, 分成出口需求函數與出口供給函數, 由二條方程式之聯立分別 估計出臺灣出口需求的所得彈性, 相對價格彈性, 競爭價格彈性以及臺灣出口供給的 所得彈性、生產彈性; 第三節討論本聯立方程式模型之認定問題, 是否能滿足秩條件 及階條件。 第三章為實證分析, 把臺灣出口之工業產品依中華民國進出口貨物分類表第十六版之 分類法, 對第二類至第八類產品依次作實證分析。 第四章結論: 提出著者之建議, 說明本文之缺失, 以及應如何補救。

本篇論文的目的在探討不完全競爭情況下之最適關稅理論。首次說明不完全競爭與國 貿理論及政策之關係，並介紹最適關稅理論之發展。在本文之第三章、第四章分別討 論產品市場不完全競爭，要素市場不完全競爭與最適關稅理論之關係。在最後的結果 中，發現最適關稅稅率將受到外國進口需求彈性、本國出口供給彈性、國內不完全競 爭情況及所得分配因素的影響，此一結果擴充了傳統最適關稅理論的討論範圍。

本文目的在於探討匯率不確定性對台灣出口波動之影響。本文應用Barkoulas et al.(2002)理論架構，利用台灣1989年至2007年的月資料。實證結果發現：美元、日圓兌新台幣的匯率波動對於台灣出口美、日兩國的數量並無明顯的影響。美元兌新台幣的匯率波動對於以美國為進口國的台灣出口波動則有正向的影響；日圓兌新台幣的匯率波動對於以日本為進口國的台灣出口波動卻沒有顯著影響。本文認為：造成美元匯率波動主要支配力量，來自於貨幣政策制定者掌握之資訊優勢差異；造成日圓匯率波動的來源則無主要支配力量的存在。造成此種結果的原因在於貨幣政策制定者長久以來所建立的政策可信度所致，削減了造成美元匯率波動的另外二股力量。因此，新台幣兌換美元匯率波動取決於貨幣政策制定者掌握經濟真實狀況的能力與其貨幣政策方向。 / This paper investigates into the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on Taiwan export volatility. Under the theoretical framework of Barkoulas et al.(2002) and the empirical monthly data of Taiwan exports from 1989 to 2007, it is summarized that the exchange rate volatility of NTD/USD and NTD/JPY had no effect on the Taiwan exporting volume toward U.S. or Japan. However, the exchange rate volatility of NTD/USD did have positive effect on the export volatility of Taiwan to U.S. while that of NTD/JPY had no significant effect on the export volatility of Taiwan to Japan.It is argued that the dominant source of NTD/USD exchange rate volatility resulted from the variance of monetary authorities’ information advantage. On the other hand, it exists no such a dominant source in NTD/JPY exchange rate volatility.

本文將貿易政策與環境政策做連結, 建構一雙邊貿易之架構, 設立一三階段之序列賽局,以之探討: 當具有跨國性質之消費性污染存在時, 在考量兩國政府皆有誘因在環境政策上採取非合作的態度下, 兩國政府應如何藉由貿易政策之協定, 訂定其最適之出口品補貼政策, 以矯正環境政策非合作下之不效率。 本文研究發現: 在兩國政府僅能夠進行政策的部分合作時, 當需求參數愈大, 兩國政府之最適貿易政策是應將給予其各自國家出口品之單位補貼調升;但若伴隨消費財貨所排放之污染對環境具有較高之邊際污染, 或是其本身之外溢效果愈強, 兩國政府對出口品之最適補貼則應該調降。我們同時也發現, 此時即使各國政府之最適貿易政策是調降出口補貼, 會使得各國之污染稅稅率更低, 但卻不會使其更加偏離兩國政府在環境政策上合作下之最適稅率, 並且仍會為全球帶來更高之社會福利。 / This paper constructs a reciprocal-market model, which contains a three-stage game to investigate how the two countries decide the optimal export subsidy agreement when they do not coordinate their environmental policy. We find that the level of optimal export subsidy should decrease with the strength of transboundary pollution, which is associated to consumption activities. In addition, the export subsidy agreement should increase with the demand parameter. We also find that even a reduction in the export subsidy will decrease the non-coordinated environmental tax rate, it will not deviate the tax rate away from the coordinated one and still enhance the social welfare.

本文主要是研究浮動匯率期間匯率波動對出口產業的影響。一般認為，匯率波動匯會使出口廠商的利潤風險增加，所以波動對於出口量的影響是為負的效果。不過，由於許多國外的研究的結果並不一定支持這種看法。本文針對台灣1984到1995年的資料進行實證研究，並且分別就不同出口產業對匯率波動的反應程度做討論，包括紡織類，塑膠化學類，電子類，機械類及基本金屬類五種產業，主要分為兩個架構分析： 　　（一）衡量匯率波動因子：對於匯率波動的衡量分成兩種方法：一種是以過去匯率變動的方式來衡量，另一種是以本期匯率預測的誤差來衡量，大部份的文獻都是採用前者。在此，為了將廠商事先避險的行為引入，所以採用後者的方法，將預測到的波動與未預測到的波動分離開來。 　　（二）匯率波動對各產業出口量的影響：將所有符合I(1)性質的變數用Johansen的方法做長期共整合關析的估計，再利用Granger Representation Theorem導出短期誤差修正模型，並將符合I(0)性質的波動因子引入模型當中，以便觀察匯率波動對出口量的影響。結果發現，各產業的出口量皆與匯率波動間存在明顯的負相關，其中以電子產業的影響最顯著，紡織類次之，基本金屬類影響最小，根據產品的特性分析可發現：當出口競爭愈激烈者，或是出口彈性愈大者，相對來講，會對匯率波動的反應較敏感。

WMD (weapons of mass destruction) proliferation and nuclear terrorism are the gravest dangers that the world faces. The international society established counter proliferation regimes and export control systems to prevent the proliferators from acquiring WMD and the related commodities that can be used in producing the weapons. However, there are limitations in export control systems. The trade security and facilitation should be both considered, while the proliferators attempt to establish procurement networks to circumvent export control systems and globalization has introduced challenges from the emergence of increasing number of global corpora¬tions and increasing volume of dual-use trade. By using the data mining tool of link analysis, the thesis attempts to develop a methodology to increase the coerciveness and accuracy of detecting problematic shipments from ordinary export activities in order to improve the export control management. From the research, it suggests that data mining is a feasible solution to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of export control. It can be used for discovering entities with not only explicit but also implicit proliferation concerns from a large quantity of datasets and increase the cost and difficulties of circumventing export control so that the proliferation activities are to be contained or hindered. Based on the findings, the thesis established an export control management model with data-mining solutions.

Taiwan, an island with outstanding economic miracle, has deeply depended on international trades to increase economic growth and national wealth. There are many successful companies, including listed enterprises and SME, manufacturing and marketing Made-in-Taiwan products all over the world through international trade and commerce. Therefore, undoubtedly the power international trade is one of our strength and plays a key role on stimulating economy as well as elevating the living standard of people. . To compete with other international exporters, Taiwanese exporters must provide not only products with good quality and reasonable price, but also offer competitive payment terms to further strive for new clients and strengthen individual competitiveness. This is a recent trend of International Trade. From the risk-free payment term, such as- T/T Advance to O/A 90 days after shipment, Taiwanese exporters suffered both political risk and credit risk. Not to mention cash flow risk and exchange rate risk that normally appears during transaction. Remembered financial crisis in 2007, market failed and malfunctioned at that time. As for corporate side, individual companies faced difficulties of continuously operation. Some even seriously went bankruptcy during that time. In this circumstance, Taiwanese exporters, even successfully won the orders, could not receive the payment on time from foreign buyers. Some of them may even suffered huge loss because of intentional disputes or buyer’s closedown. Therefore, it goes without saying that risk aversion is becoming an important issue for Taiwanese companies to survive. There would be three major financial tools being introduced for risk aversion with three case studies. Each of them has its special features and functions by different needs. How and why does Taiwanese exporter choose and leverage for risk aversion will be explained and discussed. The purpose of this paper is to find out the solutions for Taiwanese exporters to reduce risk of international trade as well as increase competitiveness in the foreign trade and grow the economy as contribution in the long run.

University of Macau / Faculty of Law

2002年元月，美國小布希總統宣稱北韓與伊拉克、伊朗，同屬「邪惡軸心」（Axis of Evil）國家，這些國家均係美國列入防止核武擴散之對象，於是北韓與美國關係旋墜落谷底，北韓之鬥爭策略是先昇溫，復加壓，然後迫使美國讓步；北韓復於2006年10月9日，正式對外宣布成功進行地下核武試驗，此舉無疑對東亞及國際安全均帶來衝擊。台灣基於同為亞太國家成員之一，應該理解北韓核武危機所牽動東北亞安全環境變化，以及美國、日本、中國及俄羅斯等國家多邊體系關係，倘北韓核武危機未能圓滿解決，擁核後之北韓除易成為東北亞潛伏威脅外，將引起日本加速武裝。北韓除製造核武問題外，北韓經濟困頓、民不聊生，朝鮮勞動黨為維繫獨裁政權統治，大肆販售飛彈等軍火牟取利益，甚至遭控訴涉及國際間多起販毒、製造假煙及偽造美鈔事件，而台灣位居東亞海空交通樞紐，台灣海峽為北韓船隻往來必經之路，因而有必要瞭解北韓政軍經現況，深入剖析北韓對於國際間衍生種種安全問題，訂定因應措施，以確保國家安全。 由於台灣外交情勢嚴峻，往往無法參與區域性國際組織，北韓乃伺機對台洽購精密儀器或刺探高科技產業技術，使得台灣容易成為北韓覬覦獲得國際管制性物品漏洞，本論文試圖探究並思索如何防止北韓向台灣採購可供軍事用途之精密儀器等用品，或可供生產提昇國防武器裝備之科技機器流向北韓，並配合國際反恐措施予以列管，這樣不僅符合國際利益，而且可以提昇台灣國際形象與國家地位；況且台灣亦有必要隨時瞭解國際上及美、歐等先進國家之最新出口管制措施，從而監督台灣廠商禁止將進口之高科技戰略性物品與生產之精密工具機，輾轉出口至管制地區（包括：伊朗、伊拉克、利比亞、北韓、中國、古巴、蘇丹等國），並配合國際防止擴散組織，共同防止大規模毀滅性武器擴散，形成全球安全之出口管制制度。 / In January 2002, President George W. Bush declared North Korea, Iraq, and Iran as an “axis of evil”. These countries are regarded as subject to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons by the U.S. As a result, the relationship between North Korea and the U.S. has deteriorated. North Korea has attempted to gradually increase pressure to force the U.S. to concede; on October 9, 2006, North Korea officially announced the success of its secret nuclear weapon test, which undoubtedly made a tremendous impact on security in East Asia and the world. As a member of the Asia Pacific Region, Taiwan should understand how security in Northeast Asia changes due to the fact that North Korea is now a country with nuclear weapons. Taiwan should also be aware of the multilateral relations between the U.S., Japan, China, and Russia. Without a satisfactory solution to the threat of North Korean nuclear weapons, Japan may accelerate its military build-up in response to this lurking danger in Northeast Asia. Besides the nuclear weapon issue, North Korea has a poor economy and starving people. The Korean Workers’ Party has been accused of being involved in arms sale (such as missiles), international drug smuggling, counterfeit tobacco products, and counterfeit U.S. banknotes in order to maintain its dictatorship. As Taiwan’s geographic position is vital in the air and sea transport in East Asia, it is imperative for Taiwan to understand North Korea’s politics, armed forces, and economy. Taiwan must analyze and understand international security issues related to North Korea and map out corresponding actions so as to ensure national security. Due to its difficult diplomatic situation, Taiwan is unable to join many regional organizations. Therefore, North Korea takes this opportunity to purchase precision devices or pry into high technology from Taiwan. This makes Taiwan prone to become a legal loophole of which North Korea can take advantage to obtain international control items. This study investigates the ways for Taiwan to prevent North Korea from purchasing precision devices for military use or high-tech machinery that can improve defense weapons. In addition, the study also discusses how Taiwan can have better export control against North Korea by conforming to international anti-terror measures. To follow international principles is not only in line with global interests, but can also improve Taiwan’s international image and status. Therefore, Taiwan must keep itself updated of the latest export control measures implemented by the U.S., Europe, and other advanced countries. By doing so, Taiwan government can also prevent corporations in Taiwan from re-exporting strategic high-tech commodities and related production machinery to controlled territories, such as Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, China, Cuba, and Sudan. With cooperation with international non-proliferation organizations, proliferation of WMDs can be stopped and a comprehensive export control network can be formed to maintain global security.