中國的改革開放促使中國積極在外交政策上有所變革，更逐步引導中國形成大國外交的基本架構；而北京奧運則使奧林匹克精神在全中國得到更為廣泛的傳播，並以「新北京，新奧運」為口號，以「綠色奧運」、「科技奧運」、「人文奧運」為主題，北京讓世界親身體驗到一個全新的中國正在形成。 而本文試圖探討北京奧運的舉辦對中國大國外交的影響，並探討以下各個觀點：中國向世界傳達了這個新興經濟大國希望和平、和諧的訊息；大國政要雲集北京，中國「奧運外交」以及中國「後奧運外交」的轉捩點；中國藉由奧運圓夢，徹底改觀世界對中國的刻板印象；中國藉由奧運與與國際接軌，中國的對外政策未來必將更加開放，北京奧運的落幕為中國大國崛起的象徵意義。 因此本文企求能透過探討北京奧運結束後是否能帶給中國與世界更同渴望的理想結果，並評析各國對中國舉辦奧運之後觀點的改變與否，故在決定論文題目的同時，選擇了研究在舉辦北京奧運之後對中國與大國外交上所帶來的影響。

本文主要探討中國自2000年以後的外交戰略。除了分析中國的崛起之外，同時也探討在崛起的過程中，中國所必須面對的質疑與挑戰。中國國力的提升是有目共睹的，然而，中國的崛起究竟是採用何種方式？中國崛起之後帶給全世界的究竟是福還是禍？中國崛起之後，是否有意與美國爭取霸權地位？這都是值得探索的問題。 面對中國的崛起，西方學者對此都有各種不同的看法，也提出各種不同的見解。然而，中國在面對崛起的過程中，面對西方國家的質疑時，中國究竟是如何面對這些懷疑呢？這些問題都是本文想要一一解答的部分。 本文從中國的國內經濟開始談起，觸及中美之間的貿易摩擦，探討中國在經貿上如何面對美國。其次，從軍事的角度切入，除了瞭解中共人民解放軍的現代化腳步以外，同時也將中共的軍備與美國做一比較，以便深入瞭解中美軍事實力的差距。最後，則是探討中國的外交戰略，除了早期中美之間的外交關係外，也深入探討中國在2000年以後所主張的外交戰略。藉由這三個面向，希望能夠對中國的崛起做一探討，瞭解中國在新的國際局勢當中，可能扮演的角色與國家地位。

後冷戰時期，面對國際政經局勢改變，美國整體對外經濟戰略主要為改變過去自由放任的經濟政策，強化美國政府角色，並盼其他重要國際組織能扮演更重要的角色，利用推行經貿外交，建構無障礙國際貿易。 而冷戰結束後，美國柯林頓、小布希總統面對「東亞區域經濟整合」因素，有不同經濟戰略，本論文分析兩政府之區域戰略─APEC及雙邊戰略─FTA異同。柯林頓政府視區域APEC戰略為途徑來進行多邊貿易系統工具，針對東亞與ASEAN國家的區域主義盛行現象，利用軸心與輪輻式(hub and spoke)拆解來進行拆解；而小布希政府對東亞地區主要的經濟戰略與柯林頓政府仍舊相同，係以APEC及ARF作為美國在東亞地區之兩大主軸。惟因受911攻擊事件影響，整體經濟戰略朝反恐進行，但在洽簽雙邊FTA之成就上卻相當卓越。 在面對中國崛起之東亞經濟戰略部分，柯林頓總統對中國戰略應用上主要是採取「擴大交往」，而非「圍堵孤立」。而小布希總統任內對於中國政策則細分為911前及911後。在911前對中國主要戰略是「既制衡又交往」，也是所謂的「圍和(Congagement)策略」，但主要以圍堵為主之強硬政策；在911事件發生後，對中國戰略調整為「經濟上交往，安全上圍堵」，並以交往為主之柔性政策。

蘇聯解體以後，中共對西方的戰略價值隨之下降，世界由兩極走向多極化，中共從1978年採取經濟改革路線，從階級鬥爭到發展生產力為中心，從內部封閉到對外開放，從追求平均到追求富裕，每一階段過程均代表著經濟成長的軌跡與意義，中共摸著石頭過河從過去苦難中所得之經驗教訓，在改革的實踐中學習改革，隨著改革深入逐步地接近目標，以市場經濟取代毛澤東主義的平均式經濟政策，經濟競爭取代了軍備競賽，已逐漸成為經濟大國。中共要謀求發展，擺脫貧窮落後就必須改革開放，沒有經濟作基礎的世界大國，地位不可能持久，沒有軍事力量的經濟大國，做不了世界大國，中共不能走沒有條件的軍事優先道路，只能走經濟優先發展，在經濟發展的基礎上提高軍事力量的路。 經濟全球化的趨勢，給世界經濟發展和國際合作帶來巨大的動力，也使國際競爭更加激烈，面臨更多風險和挑戰，中共如何利用國際合作與競爭中的機遇，化解風險推進現代化建設，關係到根本的國家利益。十六大提出全面建設小康社會，為中共的發展提供了機會，為了避免衝突，和平發展最符合國家利益，最能被鄰國、大國接受，化解可能的衝突與矛盾。 國際社會對中共正在崛起懷有不同的心態，一種是中國威脅論，擔憂未來中共強大威脅地區的安全，一種是中國崩潰論，唱衰中國，另一種是中國機遇論，希望搭乘中共的經濟快車共謀發展，國際社會對崛起的中國心態是複雜的，如何使國際社會化阻力為助力，關鍵在於和平發展為中共的國際戰略抉擇。 台灣不可能甩掉大陸而找到台灣出路，大陸亦不可能採取玉石俱焚的手段來解決台灣問題，兩岸必須降低彼此敵意，藉經貿交流，以務實態度突破困境，企能從和平解決台海問題，建構一個可長可久共創雙贏的局面，為兩岸人民謀求最大的福祉。 關鍵詞：國際戰略、和平崛起、市場經濟 / The PRC’s （Peoples’ Republic of China ）strategic value had been descending toward western society following the break down of the Soviet Union. The world had been led from bipolar to multi-polar. PRC took the opportunity to reform its economy, changing the core of economy from class struggle to productive orientation, open policy versus close policy, seeking wellness instead of fair income. Every phase represented the trace and meaning of economical growth. PRC adopts try-and-error methods, learned experience from past adversities and approaches object by reforms. Beijing accepts market economy which replace Mao, Ze-Don’s (毛澤東) thinking of an even economy. Economical competition replace arms race which made Beijing to become economically powerful in the world. In order to pursue wellness and get rid of poverty, Beijing was forced to conduct economical reform because PRC knows that she can’t be a powerful nation without economical backbone. Thus, PRC choose reforming economy over building up her military power. The trend of globalization in economy provides a great momentum for world economical development and transnational cooperation. In addition, it has made the competition even worse than before. How PRC make use of the opportunity of international cooperation and competition to solve risks and to push modern construction correlate her national interest. The sixteenth convention brought out a family of comfortable means intention, offered an opportunity for development, avoid conflicts, and conform to national interest by building close tie with her neighbor country. The international society has a different view on the rise of PRC. They have many aspects towards China; one is threat of China, which endangers the region safety. The other is the collapse of China, which by saying that Beijing might tumble in future. Finally, the opportunity for China, the neighboring nations would take this opportunity to grow with China. It is very complicated when the international society concerns about China, how to turn the resistance into assistance. The key is to build up with peaceful development. Taiwan can’t find a road by breaking away with PRC and PRC can’t resolve Taiwan issue by crushing together. Both China and Taiwan should give up hostile and provocative attitude. Develop economical exchange to breach the conflicts so as to peacefully resolve the cross strait problem and create a win-win situation. Key word : international strategy, rise in peace, marketing economy.

中國欲發展成具國際影響力的大國，首先須充實自身實力，為了能夠專心致力於發展國內經濟、儲備經濟實力，中國需建立安全穩定的國內與國際環境，待實力完備後，自然能夠維護國家領土的完整，獲取應有的大國地位。於此前提與和平發展的趨勢下，中國遂提出「和諧世界」與「和平發展」之理念，大力提倡睦鄰外交，各國應互相尊重、加強互助合作，共建和諧世界。 在經濟全球化的浪潮下，透過深化與各國的經貿往來，中國和多國簽定經貿協定，成為經貿夥伴，此舉不僅有利中國建構穩定的國內及國際環境，也有利於中國在國際社會上塑造積極合作的正面形象。中國推展戰略合作夥伴關係，就是希望透過經濟與外交的兩手策略，一面利用戰略夥伴關係為經濟發展服務並確保戰略能源的來源，同時又藉由國內市場及經濟實力不斷的提高，增加外交的籌碼以利鞏固其國際地位，擁有發聲權。此一外交手段結合經濟活動與外交關係的推展，彼此相輔相成。 然而，在中國大力提倡經濟外交、追求互利雙贏的同時，中國運用經濟制裁此一較為負面、強制性的外交手段，以脅迫性的方式威脅他國退讓的案例亦時有所聞；而中國積極推行金元外交的行為，更強化美國對「中國威脅論」的討論。此外，西方國家對於中國在提出和諧世界的同時，其軍事國防預算卻不減反增這點時有爭議。為此，中國與西方基於立場的不同，各衍生出了不同的論述與闡釋。究竟中國和平崛起戰略之真實意涵為何，其實際作為與和諧世界之宣言是否相符，均有必要加以釐清。 本篇分別依中國與美國及中國與東協國家政經互動情況為例，探討當代中國經濟快速成長之後，其外交戰略是否因日益擴大的經濟實力有所改變，又會如何影響中國與他國互動，再從相關事件之發展與各方論點，進一步分析中國經濟外交策略與和平崛起戰略之關聯性，並試圖為中國對外政策未來的發展提出建議。 / To become a great power, first, China needs to enrich the economic strength to increase the international influence. Establishing a safe and stable domestic and international environment could help China to concentrate on developing the domestic economy in a harmonious world. In order to reach this goal, China proposed the concept of “harmonious world” and “peaceful rise” and promoted that all countries should respect and cooperate with each other. As economic globalization deepens the relationship of countries, China shapes a positive image of the active cooperation through the deepening of economic and trade contacts by making trade agreements with other countries. Trade agreements not only improve access for exporters and investors to both countries’ markets, reduce the barriers to trade, but also make participating countries’ closer and create a secure trading relationship. China use the economic and diplomatic strategy to ensure the energy source for economic development. Meanwhile, China increases barging chip by rising economic power. Even though China pursuit win-win and mutually beneficial’ economic diplomacy, China also uses the negative diplomacy ─ economic sanctions at the same time. Furthermore, the military budget of China increased year by year. To this end, the Western countries suspect the true meaning of China’s “peaceful rise” and intensify the discussion of the "China threat theory". According to the examples of China and the United States of America, and China and ASEAN countries, this study is to investigate how the political and economic factors affect the interaction of China and other countries. By evaluating the correlation of the economic diplomatic and “peaceful rise”, the study tries to make recommendations for the future development of China’s diplomatic strategy.

「中國和平崛起」這個名詞於2003年的博鰲論壇上第一次被公開提出，引起全球熱烈討論。姑且不論中國的和平崛起本質上是否真為「和平」，本文中心意旨在討論中國崛起後，它最大也是最親密的鄰國－俄羅斯將如何看待這個亦敵亦友的大國在經濟、軍事等各方面的巨大轉變。而本文作者認為，看來正朝向親密戰略合作夥伴關係前進的中俄兩國間，其中仍存有許多可能阻礙其發展的重要因素。 / The term "China's peaceful rise" was first introduced at the 2003 annual session of the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) and has become a hot topic drawing international attention. This thesis focuses on the changing relationship between Russia and China, especially in the period after the collapse of USSR. The new Russia and China have built their strategic partnership on diplomatic, military, and economic aspects during the period of China’s rise. During this period both countries also faced a transforming climate in their societies, with a different ideological environment, different forms of inner-party life and a different “style of work” being formed and changed rapidly at every decision-making moment. In the history of Sino-Soviet relations we can easily see that Mao Zedong won control of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and lead it to victory by repeatedly defying Stalin’s advice, which also contributed to the formation of a Chinese Communist leadership that is highly conscious of those differences. Since the beginning of the new Russia, the so-called “peaceful rise of China” theory as a matter of course has been highly doubted. This thesis shows that many of the factors currently improving Sino-Russian relations are unlikely to sustain the current positive relationship and instead are likely to cause a divergence in their relationship, which is understood by looking at hidden factors from apparent clues that might cause a divergence between the two countries in the near future. Keywords: China, Russia, International Relations, Sino-Soviet Relations, “China’s peaceful Rise”

冷戰結束後，因應蘇聯及東歐等共產政權相繼垮台，中共在天安門事件的塑造下，更顯得搖搖欲墜。但由於其經濟開放的成果，造就了讓世界各國驚嘆與擔心的「中國崛起(China Rising)」，也使得中共成為共產主義最後的根據地，更確立了由文人主導下的中共政治體制。假如毛澤東使中共站起來，那鄧小平則是使中共富起來的人。中共建國初始即由槍桿子建政權，直到鄧小平扶植江澤民後，才開始確立文人領軍（擔任中央軍委會主席）的形勢，一直到現在胡錦濤全面掌握軍權，其「以經領軍」的大方針政策指導，讓中共人民解放軍為建設「具有中國特色的軍事現代化變革」努力不悔。 今年（2007年）適逢中共人民解放軍建軍八十週年。想想從1927年8月1日南昌暴動的農民，打著赤膊，揮舞著大刀、土槍，以革命的游擊戰法東奔西竄，一直到今年的八一建軍節，解放軍換穿充滿時尚感的新式軍服，並不斷與世界各國舉行軍事演習，確實讓人感受到其期望成為國際現代化勁旅的強烈企圖心。這等動力是毛澤東等軍事領導人所始料未及的，也不得不佩服中共文人領導階層在爭奪領導權的用心、細心與耐心。 自2007年10月中國共產黨第十七屆全國代表大會順利召開完畢後，奠定了胡錦濤權力鞏固的基礎，未來將由胡錦濤等9人所組成的中央政治局常委，繼續帶領著中共，對未來國內外的經濟改革、軍事現代化、爭取亞洲區域霸權、甚至是如何在世界中扮演一個大國角色等議題努力前進。但不可諱言的，如何在具有中國特色的社會主義指導下，去堅持黨的絕對領導，並以科學發展觀的角度，朝向小康社會的這個主要目標是仍舊不會變；也因如此，以具有中國特色的精兵政策，持續邁向科技建軍、質量強軍，則是維護目標的安全法則。 今日的中共，在所謂社會主義體制下，已演進成一個以經濟發展為主體、文人領軍的共產主義國家，而且這期間沒有經歷流血的轉變過程。未來其根本體制是否會因經濟持續發展而產生動搖，或因在產生執政續任者的慣性過程中，讓中共軍文關係有了進一步的變化，這都是值得我們觀察的課題，而或許這也是中共執政者與學者們極不願去碰觸的議題。

自20世紀末期以來，隨著世界經濟區塊化和中國經濟的蓬勃發展，中國已成為澳洲當前最重要的貿易夥伴。在此背景下，澳洲前總理霍華德(John Howard)於2002年5月訪中期間，便主動向中國前總理朱鎔基提出洽簽「澳洲－中國自由貿易協定」(Australia-China Free Trade Agreement, ACFTA)的構想，希望進一步加強兩國之間的經貿聯繫。然而，各國政府推動雙邊自貿談判的目的往往出自於經濟和政治的雙重考量，而中澳自由貿易協定亦不例外。在此認知下，澳洲和中國洽簽雙邊自貿協定之動機和目的，是本文所要探討的重點。筆者將觀察中澳兩國如何在雙邊自貿談判的過程中，為自己創造一些有利的籌碼，進而說服對方以達到目的。另外，本文也將分析中澳自由貿易協定成立之後對中澳兩國的經濟發展、東亞經濟整合、以及台灣總體經濟之可能影響，並就台灣將如何因應區域經貿結盟之風潮提出政策建言。

自 1955 年，中國與印度和緬甸簽署「和平共處五項原則」之後，又在改革開放時期，提出了「和平與發展」是當今時代的兩大主題起，「和諧世界」理念便開啟了國際的視窗，至 1999 年代初期，中國學者基於「國際觀」的理念，提出未來「中國崛起」對國際權力平衡結構將造成影響的討論，此時國際間便興起「中國威脅論」及「中國即將崩潰」的論點研究。 有鑑於此，鄭必堅於 2004 年 4 月 22 日在北京人民大會堂繼續舉行第三單元主題報告會，在最後一場報告會上發表題為「中國和平崛起的發展道路」的演講中，曾提到「和平怎麼會威脅？崛起又怎麼會崩潰？和平崛起是對中國威脅論和中國崩潰論最有利的回擊」。因此提出「和平崛起」理念，來企圖推翻「中國威脅論」及「中國即將崩潰」的論點，因為中國認為唯有藉創造「和諧環境」與「善意的回應」，才能轉移國際焦點，把國際經濟重點引向中國大陸。 中國談「和平崛起」，在政治上「無非是想建立一個對他有利的區域國際環境」，在經濟上「主要在加強與東亞各國的經濟合作，營造中國經濟崛起所需要的周邊環境」，在軍事上「主要在增加東亞地區國家對中國的依賴，成為區域大國」；美國雖然不願意看到「中國的崛起」，影響其美國在東亞地區的主導地位，但自發生「九一一恐怖攻擊」事件後，基於地緣戰略需要，為確保亞洲地區的安全，反而依賴中國在亞洲區的優勢戰略條件，使中國佔有舉足輕重的地位，美國欲藉中國在亞太地區的影響力，牽制「資恐國家」的軍事力量擴張與恐怖組織力量的蔓延，所以此舉也替中國帶來「和平崛起」的契機與國際環境，但是必須克服「東亞各國政治理念分歧」、「歷史宿怨與政治相悖」等主要限制因素，中國才能達到主導東亞事務的目的。 中國向以「強勢國家」自居，從近年來國防武器發展來看，在東亞地區已影響區域軍事均衡，日本也已警覺到「中國」所帶來的威脅，所以也積極尋求國家支持日本軍力的擴展，今後，東亞地區的和平與否，「中、日」兩國是關鍵，兩國若無建立合作機制，求得共同利益的環境，必會導致軍事競賽的情形發生，那麼「東亞地區」真的就如同亞洲的彈藥庫一般，實不得不注意。 / Since 1955, after signing the Treaty of “Five Principles concerning Peaceful Co-existence”with India and Burma, and after proposing that “Peace and Development”were two major issues of contemporary times during the period of reformation and opening, China has promoted the idea of “Harmonious World”to open the international view. At the beginning of 1990s, Chinese scholars launched the discussion about how “The Rising of China”will influence the structure of balance between international powers, on the basis of the idea of “International View”, there arose the study of theses of “China is a threat” and “China is going to collapse”among international scholars. According to this fact, in the conference held in April, 22nd, 2004, in Peking People’s Hall, Chen Pi-Gen presented a speech entitled “The Developing Way of Peaceful Rising of China ”in the final session of the third topic, and mentioned that “How does peace become a threat? How does rising become collapse? Peaceful rising is the most useful response for the theses of “Chinese threat” and “Chinese collapse”. He proposed the idea of “Peaceful Rising”, therefore, in order to overthrow the theses of “Chinese Threat” and “Chinese Collapse”. He argued that China can shift international focus and introduce important international economy into mainland China only by inventing “Harmonious Environment” and “Friendly Responses”. For China, to talk about “Peaceful Rising”, is to “build a regional international environment good for herself”on the political ground, to “strengthen mainly economic cooperation with South-east Asian countries, to construct the circumstance necessary for the economic rising of China” on the economic ground, and to “increase the dependence of East Asian countries on China, in order to become a regional great country”. The United States is not willing to see “The Rising of China”which affects the leading role of U. S. A. in the region of East Asia. However, after the event of “911 Terrorist Attack ”, the United States relys on the dominant role of China in Asian strategic situation in order to protect the peace of Asia. The United States wishes to use Chinese influence on Asian countries to prevent the military expansion of conntries which support terriorism as well as the increase of the power of terriorist organizations. This measure has brougnt the opportunity and international environment of “Peaceful Rising”for China. Nevertheless, for the purpose of leading international affairs in East Asia, China has to overcome the limiting factors of “divergence of political ideas among East Asian countries”and “the contradictin of historical hatred and politics”. China has long been proud of being a “Strong Country”. From the evidence of Chinese development of defense weapons, we can find China has influenced regional military balance in East Asia. Japan has awared the threat from China, and trys eagerly to look for national support for expanding military power. From now on, China and Japan will play key roles in peace-keeping in East Asia. If there is no cooperation mechanism constructed between two countries for their mutual benefits, there will arise for sure military competition between two countries, and East Asia will become the bomb storage of Asia. This situation deserves our close and constant attention.

中國的國力及影響力在本世紀以來顯著地上升，使得美中關係成為國際事務中最重要的議題。本研究試圖從決策層次的角度來檢視美中關係，透過對一系列意見調查數據的分析及歸納，分別描繪出「美國公眾」及「美國菁英」兩個團體對中國崛起的認知樣貌，並且說明此種認知之內涵與意義。 本研究發現，美國公眾與美國菁英對於中國崛起的認知皆帶有濃厚的務實主義（pragmatism）色彩：他們雖然對美中之間日益接近的經濟力量、中國的軍事發展及以人權狀況感到憂慮，卻同時也認知到中國日益高漲的國際影響力及其所帶來的經濟利益對美國的重要性，因此支持政府與中國進行經濟上的交往，並在能源及亞太安全等議題上合作，而非與之正面衝突。而這樣的務實看法形塑了美國的中國政策，鼓勵了中國在國際體系中的制度性崛起，將可能的衝突來源轉化為兩國間之共同利益，以降低中國的威脅性。值得注意的是，由於美國公眾與美國菁英對外交事務的思考有著層次之別，使得他們在對中國的貿易政策上抱持差異化的觀點；雖然公眾與菁英皆將貿易視為美中之間最大的共同利益，贊同市場開放，但是前者對開放所造成的工作外移感到威脅，在經濟環境惡化時，容易將這樣的認知轉化為對中國的負面觀感，然而，這樣的情況卻容易為後者所忽略。 / The power and influence of China have been rising significantly in this era, and made U.S.-China relation the most important issue among international affairs. This study tried to watch the relationship between U.S.-China from decision-making level, drawing the pattern of perception of U.S. public and elite on a rising China separately through summarizing, reasoning and analyzing series of survey of public and elite opinion. This study found that U.S. public and elite both hold a pragmatic perception toward a rising China. Though these two groups feel worried about the narrowing economic strength between U.S. and China, and the development of Chinese military, they also perceive the rising influence of China and the importance of huge economic interest that it brings. Therefore, they both support the government to engage and cooperate with China on trade, energy and security of Asia-Pacific region issues instead of rigid confrontation, which directly formed the China Policy of U.S., encouraged China to develop institutionally in international system. In addition, U.S. public and elite think differently about the trade policy to China due to their basic belief of foreign affairs: The former particularly feels threatened by outsourcing brought by the open market, and this kind of feeling will get stronger when the economy goes down, which easily ignored by the latter.