1991年12月25日蘇聯正式解體，俄羅斯聯邦作為原蘇聯主要繼承國登上歷史舞台，冷戰的兩極格局也就此結束，俄羅斯為了要全面繼承過去蘇聯在國際間的地位，接管其部隊、武器及軍事設施，另為謀求俄羅斯整體經濟不致崩盤，大量釋出過盛的武器裝備及技術，如此給了中國擴充軍備、接收武器裝備的機會，也直接形成了中國武力崛起，衝擊著西太平洋的安全秩序及台海兩岸的安全。本文旨在就1991年冷戰結束暨蘇聯解體後，克里姆林宮兩任總統對中國的外交、軍事政策及作為，探討台海兩岸因軍事力量失衡所產生的衝擊。 另一方面，隨著冷戰結束、蘇聯解體，美、蘇對抗的終結，崛起的中國成為美國全球戰略的潛在競爭者，尤其是中國自1993年起，從俄羅斯獲得先進武器科技，也取得導彈、雷射、太空系統的先進材料和製造技術，點出中國急欲建構新世紀戰力的企圖心，也對台海兩岸的局勢增添更多的不穩定因素及不安全感。究竟對台海安全造成的衝擊有多大？本論文試圖探討中國在此期間軍事上的獲利及武力上的增長，對海峽兩岸的均勢是否產生變化，以及產生何種變化？本論文依據上述問題，設計相對應之章節，其各章節架構如下：第一章緒論。第二章俄中軍事交流的背景分析。第三章：冷戰後俄中軍事交流概況。第四章：俄中軍事交流對台海安全之衝擊。第五章：俄中軍事交流對台海安全之衝擊：我國因應對策。第六章：結論。 / Russia, the former Soviet Union major successor, stepped on world history stage after Soviet Union collapsed on Dec 25, 1991, which also drew an end for the cold war era. In order to inherit Soviet Union’s international position, to take over troop and weapon and military installations, and to manage to prevent its economy collapse. Russia had released its over produced weaponry and technology. The technology transformation and weaponry releasing led Mainland China a chance to expand its military strength and brought China’s military strength rising abruptly. The situation affects the security of the Western Pacific Ocean and Taiwan Strait. This study aims on the foreign and military policy of Kremlin toward China after the collapse of Soviet Union and the impact of ROC’s inclining military power between two sides of Taiwan Strait. On the other hand, with the end of cold war and the concluded confrontation between U.S and U.S.S.R, the rising China turned out to be the potential global strategic enemy to United States. Especially China, since1993, obtained the cutting edge military technology, the advanced material and manufacture technique for guiding missile, laser and space system from Russia. This transformation pointed out that China’s keen to build a new modern military in the 21 century. The situation also created the unstable factor and insecure feeling between cross strait and no one can predict what impact will it arouse? This study is to analysis on: Will the PRC’s military strength expansion varies the cross strait situation and what variation wills it happen? According to above theory the structure of this thesis is designed as follow: Chapter One: Introduction. Chapter Two: Analysis on Russia–Chain’s military exchange background. Chapter Three: The post cold war general situation of Russia–Chain’s military Exchange. Chapter four: The impact on Taiwan Strait security by Russia–Chain’s military exchange. Chapter Five: The proper way to deal with the impact of Russia–Chian’s military exchange Chapter six: Conclusion.

第一章：導論，包括研究的動機、方法、資料的搜集及運用，研究的經過和遭遇的困 難等。 第二章：趙紫陽的政治經歷，包括河南時期、廣東時期和文革時期的主要政治活動， 並兼論各時期的政治環境與主要政策，以期了解趙紫陽的政治態度與行為。 第三章：趙紫陽的四川經濟改革，包括改革的背景，改革構想的形成和改革的具體內 容等。 第四章：趙紫陽崛起分析：包括華、鄧權力門爭，鄧小平的權力部署及四川改革的全 國推廣等。 第五章：結論，包括趙紫陽的施政得失，現階段中共經濟政策，及未來的可能發展。

針對外界流傳已久的中國威脅論，中國於2003年底開始推出「和平崛起」論述，主張中國以和平的方式崛起，並且旨在維護和平、以和平為目的。除了基於國際環境給予的動力與壓力之外，中國決策者對中國崛起的自信，以及期望建立一套新的國家發展論述促使和平崛起戰略的出台。中國建立了以和平崛起為目標的國家發展戰略，其中對外建構了一套和平崛起外交戰略，具體落實在大國外交、睦鄰外交、與發展中國家關係及多邊外交上。本研究自中國崛起的背景著手，從國際環境、國家實力與決策者認知理解中國提出和平崛起的原因、目的與特色，並觀察中國相應而生的具體外交作為。最後，本研究指出和平崛起外交戰略面臨到中美權力競逐與矛盾問題、中日安全困境與衝突利益問題、領海與資源爭議以及台灣問題的嚴格考驗。 / This dissertation focuses on the “peaceful rise” argument brought by China in the end of 2003. By contending that China will rise by peace, for peace, and peacefully, the so-called “peaceful rise” argument tried to counter “China threat” argument, which distributed for a long time. The making of China’s “peaceful rise” national strategy is motivated and forced by the international environment. On top of that, the confidence of Chinese decision-makers for a rising China provides power to the formation of the new national strategy as well as the expectation for a new national development discourse. Following the national development strategy which aims at a peacefully rising China, the “peaceful rise” diplomatic strategy was built by a series of concrete foreign policies, including “Big-power diplomacy,” “Good-neighboring diplomacy,” “Relations with developing countries,” and “Multi-lateral diplomacy”. This dissertation starts from the background of a rising China, comprehends the reason, goal and character of China’s “peaceful rise” by international environment, national power, and decision-maker’s cognitive approaches. Moreover, concrete foreign policies accompanying its national strategy are analyzed. Finally, this research finds that the peaceful rise diplomatic strategy needs to deal with certain challenges such as Sino-U.S. power struggle with conflicting issues, Sino-Japan security dilemma with conflicting issues, peripheral territorial sea and land disputes, and last but not least, the Taiwan problem.

由於中國經濟快速的成長，綜合國力逐漸提升，更因成長趨勢顯著，不但引起世界各國的注意，並讓周邊國家及國際強權產生壓迫感，遂有「中國威脅論」的出現。自2003年下半年起，中國領導階層與主要分析家即開始提倡「和平崛起」概念為其未來數十年的戰略路線；因為中國領導人瞭解其快速提昇的全球經濟與安全事務影響力，已造成主要強權和亞洲各國的普遍憂慮後，正試圖以此概念向世界消毒。而「和平崛起」係中國研究歷史後，瞭解新力量崛起時可能產生的問題後所採行的國家戰略路線，希藉此向世界宣示其力求避免衝突的決心，本概念即係中國對「中國威脅論」的回應。 現代國家的國防安全已不是單純軍事範疇的問題，而是政府針對國家安全情勢需要，對政治、經濟、心理、軍事整體國力的統合運策施為，以確保國家安全的全面國務大政。承平時的「嚇阻」及戰爭時的「防衛」為推動國防政策的必要觀念；因此，外部的軍事威脅仍是影響各國國家安全的最主要因素。 中國積極推動軍事現代化的短期目標雖然還是在於以武力脅迫台灣，並準備可能的台海衝突，但長期而言，中國不僅有能力而且有野心去挑戰美國在亞洲區域內的霸權地位。比起美國近年超過3000億美元的軍事預算和先進的武器裝備，中國的軍力雖略顯渺小，但其增長的速度卻十分快速。自1990年代以來，中國官方的國防支出即以每年兩位數的成長率增加，中國的崛起以及伴隨而來的快速軍力擴張，已經成為影響海峽兩岸穩定與安全的最大變數。 國防建軍的理念，不在與敵人作量的競賽，而是建立一支高素質、高科技的精銳武力，以確實嚇阻敵人；因此，就現況而言，維持兩岸現況以及足夠的嚇阻力量，乃是降低兩岸動武機率的兩大要素。 / The rapid growth of China’s economy and advancement in national comprehensive power have drawn attention to the world. China’s neighboring countries and great powers are sensing the escalating pressures of “China Threat”. Since the second half of 2003, China’s leadership and analysts have initiated the concept of “Peaceful Rise” as China’s future strategy in the next few decades. China is now attempting to change the international community’s misconception toward China. The national defense is aimed to the need for the overall national security. National defense encompasses political, economical, psychological and military aspects rather than just for the military motive. To “deter” in the peace time and to “defense” in the war time are mayor concerns of national defense policy. Consequently, exterior military threat remains the top issue in each country’s national security. China’s military modernization for the short-term goal is to coerce Taiwan and prepare for any possible cross-straits confrontation. China not only has the ability but also the ambition to challenge the U.S. hegemony role in the Asia. China’s military budget is relatively small compared to the U.S. military expenses in the last few years. However, China’s military modernization is very phenomenal in the past few years. Since the 1990s, China’s official documents reveal that its military expense grows in the rate of more than 10 percent. The rising China and its rapid military expansion become the most unpredictable variables for the stability and security in the Cross-Straits region. The ideal type of building military forces is to build a high-quality and high-tech forces rather than to compete with the enemy in terms of figures. Inferring Maintaining status quo and have the forces to deter China’s military intention are two important factors to reduce the military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait.

印度為近代新興崛起的國家，在政治、經濟、資訊、科技與軍事上均有顯著的進步，其綜合國力的提升已不容忽視。尤其在經濟上的發展速度，更令世界各國所矚目，而現今世界公認的「金磚四國」中，印度則列居名單之內，其涵意代表著在未來國際權力地位追逐的過程當中，具有更深厚的競爭潛力。就地緣戰略的觀點而言，印度位於麻六甲海峽至波斯灣之間的交通樞紐，為非洲與中東地區能源及貿易物資輸往西太平洋的必經路線，而能源線的暢通與否，均牽動著東、南亞地區的經濟命脈。 冷戰結束後，兩極對抗的國際格局不再，印度新一代戰略菁英份子認為，印度應採取「以武力取代外交功能」的戰略觀。由於印、巴衝突所帶來的不安全感，及中共的核武構成的威脅，使得印度方面必須藉由核武發展與整建軍力，來化解印度所面臨的威脅，卻也引了發核武競賽問題。1947年印度獨立後美國並未重視，僅視印度是一個阻止共產主義擴散的國家。當印度躋身進入核武國家行列之後，便開始發崛印度在南亞地緣戰略的重要性，正因為印度國力逐漸提升，使得美、印兩國建立「邁向21世紀戰略夥伴」關係，來面對中國「和平崛起」的所帶來的挑戰。 1979年12月24日蘇聯入侵阿富汗後，卡特政府體認到印度戰略地位的重要性，視印度為防堵蘇聯共產勢力擴散的國家，於1980年再度恢復美、印核能合作計畫，提供有關核反應爐所需原料，藉此拉攏印度成為美國反共產主義的盟友。冷戰結束後，柯林頓政府提出了「交往與擴大的國家安全戰略」，強調「安全、經濟、民主」是美國外交政策的三大支柱，因而開始拓展與印度的合作範圍，加強經貿與軍事合作，以符合美國國家利益目標。 小布希總統上台，將中共定位為「戰略競爭者」的角色，視中國「和平崛起」對美國的威脅。「911」恐佈攻擊事件，美國雖與中共在反恐任務上共同合作，但仍不失其對中國的戒心，因此與印度共同結合成為「邁向21世紀的戰略夥伴」關係，以防止中國「和平崛起」對美國霸權地位的挑戰。 中國「和平崛起」強調努力發展和壯大自己，維護世界和平，堅持開放與平等互利原則，與各國發展經貿，強調現在與未來不稱霸。美印戰略合作，將使得中共在海洋戰略發展受限，同時更影響了中、印兩國的經貿發展。中國為了防止美、印戰略關係所形成的衝擊，必須展現其大國外交作風，穩固與印度經貿上的合作，深化與歐盟實質關係，運用「上海合作組織」來強化其在區域大國的地位，以防範美國對其所實施的新圍堵策略。 / India, one of emerging countries in recent years, has had great progress in politics, economics, information, technology and military. India’s current social status and economic strength has drawn everyone’s attention, especially in BRICs, it plays an important part. In terms of its geo-strategic prospects, India, locating between Strait of Malacca and Persia Gulf, is an essential commercial access. After the Cold War, the new-generation elites think India should take the strategy of replacing democratic function with power. Because of the fear resulting from the India-Pakistan conflicts and the threat of nuclear power in China Communist, India must rebuild its military forces by developing nuclear power so that some threat to the national defense will be released. The problem about nuclear competition is getting worse. As a result, America and India start to set up “the relationships of strategic partnership toward 21st century” to face the challenge coming from “Peaceful Rise” in China. After Soviet invaded Afghanistan in December 24, 1979, the Cater Administration, realizing the importance of India’s strategic status, regarded India as a defense stopping the communist from spreading and regained the nuclear cooperation plan between America and India to make India a member of the alliance of anti-china communist. After the Cold War, the Clinton Administration addressed the strategy of “enlargement and engagement”, emphasizing that safety, economics and democracy are three main parts in diplomatic policy in U.S.A. America started to cooperate with India in commerce and military to meet their own national interest. George, W. Bush considered China a “strategic competitor” and regarded “Peaceful Rise” as a threat to America. After 911 terror attack. America made efforts to establish the relationship of “strategic partnership toward 21st century” with India and prevent China’s “Peaceful Rise” from challenging America’s powerful status. America and India’s cooperation restricts the development of China’s ocean strategy and influences the development of economics and commerce between China and India. Therefore, China tries hard to make use of “Shanghai Cooperation Organization” to reinforce its status and guard against America’s “Geopolitics”.

冷戰結束後，超級大國的對抗不復存在，而呈現「一超多強」的情勢，加上「中國威脅論」的興起，綜合國力日漸提升的中共認知到國際社會（尤其是美國）大有圍堵「中國崛起」之意。為維護周邊環境的穩定，中共提出「新安全觀」作為因應，宣揚有別於冷戰安全觀的思維，並以雙邊、多邊外交政策進行實踐，強調以「和平共處五原則」與各國共處，經由協商解決衝突。 筆者擬藉由本論文之研究，檢視中共提出「新安全觀」之目的性及策略性，從中瞭解中共「新安全觀」指導下之大國外交，與美國的亞太戰略的相互影響關係，並且從911事件後，分析中共「新安全觀」指導下的對美關係的發展變化，以瞭解中共「新安全觀」下之對美關係模式。 本論文已完成幾項基礎工作：（一）詮釋中共「新安全觀」的背景、意涵及在外交上的實踐；（二）探討中共「新安全觀」視角下的美國角色，中共「新安全觀」及美國對於「中國崛起」的立場與其相應之亞太安全戰略；（三）分析911事件發生後，國際格局的轉變與美國國家安全戰略及其對中關係的調整；（四）分別就反恐議題、朝核問題、飛彈防禦系統問題、台灣議題及中美戰略經濟對話等安全議題中，分析中共在「新安全觀」思維下與美國之互動關係。 筆者認為，就上揭各層面等議題而言，中共基於「新安全觀」拓展與美國合作的雙邊關係，並藉此滿足國家利益。雖然中美兩國在大國關係、區域安全問題等方面有共識及分歧，但總的來說，是積極爭取良性互動和防止正面衝突。中美兩國抓住改善關係的歷史性機遇，強調外交合作，關注雙方的核心議題與重大利益。筆者認為，中共「新安全觀」在中美關係上已得到初步體現，但仍有許多挑戰等待克服，未來仍須以「新安全觀」理念為基礎與美國及他國促進關係發展，以維護其國家利益。 關鍵詞：新安全觀、中國崛起、911事件、中美關係、反恐合作、朝核問題、中美戰略經濟對話 / There exists no further superpower confrontation since the end of the Cold War. Nonetheless the global situation has turned out to be a realm of “one superpower and many other powers.” As the plausible China’s threat emerges, China with its rising synthesizing strength recognizes that the international community, especially the United States, is forging a strategy of “containing China.” To stabilize its adjacent environment, the PRC initiates a “New Security Concept,” proclaiming a unique security concept, to implement bilateral and multilateral diplomatic ties with other nations. China emphasizes its “Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence,” solving disputes with others by way of coordination and cooperation. In this thesis, the author reviews the purpose and strategy based on China’s “New Security Concept,” and explore “Big Power” diplomacy and the consequent effect of U.S.’s Asia-Pacific strategy. In addition, the author analyzes the evolving changes of Sino-U.S. relationship under the “New Security Concept” so as to realize China’s very motive in manipulating foreign policy. This thesis does the following fundamental research: 1. Illustrate the background, means, and diplomatic practice based on China’s “New Security Concept.” 2. Confer the U.S.’s role in China’s “New Security Concept” policy, the U.S. reaction to China’s “New Security Concept,” and U.S.’s viewpoint to the “China Rise.” 3. Analyze the shift of international strategy, the adjustment of U.S. national security strategy and the Sino-U.S. relationship after the 911 Incident. 4. On the issues like antiterrorism, North Korea’s nuclear program, missile defense system, Taiwan issue, Sino-U.S. economic talks, the author also tries to analyze the Sino-U.S. interaction within China’s mentality of “New Security Concept.” After studying the above issues, the author contends that China assures her national interest by means of “New Security Concept” and the U.S. cooperation. Though there still are concurrences and opposite opinions on issues of “Big Power” relationship and regional security between U.S. and China, China’s comprehensive policy is striving for proactive interaction and preventing it from having direct conflict with the U.S. China and U.S. take this historic chance of improving relationship, stress their diplomatic cooperation, and mind the core issues and critical benefits. The author believes China’s “New Security Concept” has initially reached the objective on Sino-U.S. relationship. Nevertheless there are challenges to be overcome. China will expand the relationship with U.S. and other states with “New Security Concept” so as to promote its national interest. Keywords: New Security Concept, China Rise, 911 Incident, Sino-U.S. relationship, North Korea nuclear program, Sino-U.S. strategic & Economic talks

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「中國崛起」是國際社會在討論中共1990年代以來的變化所使用的概念。影響臺灣國家安全的因素雖然很多，但中共政權始終是臺灣國家安全的最大威脅，「中共崛起」後，伴隨其綜合國力的成長，及其擴張的戰略企圖，臺灣問題已經從以往民族情感的統一需求，提升為中共向外擴張的戰略需求，而造成臺灣在安全方面的更大挑戰。 雖然世人對「中國崛起」是否成為威脅的看法分歧，現實主義者認為他是潛在的威脅，主張藉由赫阻等手段維持權力平衡；自由主義者認為讓中國接受國際機制規範，可降低與之發生軍事衝突的可能；建構主義者認為與中國正面的互動會走向和平，但負面的互動會走向衝突；但就臺灣的安全而言，在中共不放棄以武力犯臺的原則下，中共的和平宣示、現實主義、自由主義、乃至建構主義對「中國崛起」的看法與主張，只能當作臺灣在策定國家安全戰略的分析與參考，畢竟中國是否為「和平崛起」需要經過諸多檢驗，臺海安全只能當作國際上對中共行為與和平宣示的驗證；就臺灣本身而言，我們必須堅信中共是我們最大的安全威脅來源。 本文的論述主要從中共崛起的戰略意涵及中共對於未來的戰略企圖，從軍事、經濟、政治、文化層面，解構中共崛起後，臺灣安全威脅的變化，分析臺灣如何在「中共崛起」、「國際、區域」局勢更迭中，從國際、兩岸關係、臺灣內部的軍事、經濟、政治、文化層面，建立臺灣應有的認知共識，與具體的戰略思考。以選擇臺灣「避戰爭之兇、趨和平之吉」的最好方法。 / Many of the ideas of the rise of the PRC come from the new security concept, which was formulated by thinktanks in the international comunnity in the mid-1990s. Concerning unification, China is the single most threat to Taiwan’s survival. Spatial expansion, a result of rising China, is gathering momentum to impact Taiwan security. There are controversial arguments. Rationalist argues that China need to be contained through deterrence. Liberalist argues that in order to reduce potential conflict, China can be tampered through international norms. Constructionist argues that China could be bad or behaving boy. Regarding Taiwan security, these arguments are irrelevant to contemporary Taiwan security. As long as China not to exclude the possibility to use force in the unification, China is the single most threat against Taiwan. Regarding Rising China, this paper exams its implications and her strategic intentions. Finally, facing the threat this article tries to find the most feasible strategy in the regional/global environment with economic, political, military, cultural considerations.

冷戰結束後，中共在亞太地區及全球安全戰略格局中的地位逐漸上升。時空際會，當今國際秩序與全球化正值發展階段，因而出現一個有利於中共改善與周邊國家關係的國際環境，並提供一個穩定周邊良好的機遇。邁入21世紀之初，中共在第四代領導人集體審時度勢下，調整了對外政策，以「大國外交」與「睦鄰外交」為重要的外交戰略，在外交理念上堅持以互相信任為基礎，長期穩定為前提，睦鄰友好為保障，全面合作是紐帶，共同發展繁榮為目標，致力於大國及周邊國家的合作友好關係建立。 中共在「十六大」政治報告後，將「大國外交」與「睦鄰外交」列為對外關係的重要戰略。除運用元首出訪、經貿交流、軍事交流等外交作為，與美、俄、日、歐盟及印度等主要大國及周邊重要國家建立友好關係與傳統外交外，並積極參與或主導有關政治、經濟、軍事等具全球性議題的雙邊或多邊組織，以展現其對國際社會善盡義務，藉以塑造為體系中「負責任大國」與「睦鄰、安鄰、富鄰」友好鄰國之形象。 　 2003年中共胡溫領導人掌權後，在遂行「大國外交」、「睦鄰外交」時，係採取「韜光養晦、有所作為」具體行動，並倡議「新安全觀」、「和平發展」、「和諧世界」、「國際關係民主化」的外交理念，並強調「不對抗、不結盟、不針對三者」主張，逐步融入國際體系，積極從事國家經濟建設，以期與主要大國與周邊國家建構「平等、協作、互信、互利」的合作夥伴關係，目的就在創造一個安全、穩定的國際與周邊環境。 中共總體外交戰略是在謀求國家利益發展戰略，進而轉向與世界謀求共同發展與安全戰略。此一戰略轉變，是以經濟利益與區域安全為基點，以積極參與國際事務、加強國際合作為途徑，以拓展國家戰略利益、發揮負責任大國作用為目標。自胡溫掌政後即積極與世界各主要大國與鄰近重要國家建立戰略性協作夥伴關係，目前與中共建立戰略夥伴關係的國家共有30個國家，從中共積極推動「大國外交」與「睦鄰外交」之戰略與手段觀察，事實上我們不難發現其為何一直在積極維護和創造有利於現代化的國際與周邊環境，並企圖拓展國家戰略利益的範圍和空間，不斷地擴大在國際間地位與影響力之目的所在。 關鍵字：大國外交、睦鄰外交戰略、新安全觀、和平崛起、和諧世界 / After the cold war, China is gradually gaining a raising status of military strategic position in the Asia-Pacific region as well as in global layout. International order and Globalization is at its developing phase, thus forming a advantageous circumstance for Chinese government to enhance its foreign affair status with surrounding countries also providing a chance to stabilize regional diplomatic pressure. In the beginning of 21st centry, 4th generation leaders of Chinese government carefully evaluated situations and adjusted their diplomatic policies, focusing their diplomatic strategies on foreign affair with powerful nations and surrounding countries, insisting their foreign policy to be based on trust with views of long-term balance. With the objectives of mutual growth, china is dedicated to build amicable relation with powerful and surrounding countries by bonding full collaboration and assured partnership. After the 16th Congress political report, china listed “Big-Power Diplomacy” and “Good-Neighborly Diplomacy” as their major foreign affair strategy. Besides building friendly relation and applying traditional foreign tactics with major nations such as USA, Russia, Japan, EU, and India, China’s foreign tactics also includes financial and military collaboration, visiting friendly soil by country leader(s), etc. China also actively leads and/or joins associtions/organizations with concern of global issues regarding political, economical, and military importance, in attempt to demonstrate the image of a powerful nation and to establish the good-neighborly figure in the international society. China’s overall foreign affair strategy is focused on gaining national benefits and later seeks global growth collaboration and international security. This change of strategy is based on considerations of economical benefits and regional security, achieved by actively attending international events, with clear objectives of expanding maximum strategical gain and developing the representation of an accountable country. Governor Hu and governor Wen had been actively building strategic partnership with major nations and vicinal countries. At present, there are 30 countries having strategic partnership with Chinese government. Examining china’s strategic means and diplomatic tactics, one can obviously notice how china is aggressively maintain and further create the circumstance which is most beneficial for extending its national strategic space and range, thus accomplish its goal of raised international influence. Key word：Big-power Diplomacy、Good-Neighborly Diplomacy、New Security View、Peaceful Rise、Harmonize the world

歷經第二次伊拉克戰爭與經濟危機，冷戰後主導世界秩序的支配強權－美國國力遭受打擊，進而出現美國衰落的論述；同一時期，太平洋另一端新興大國—中國藉由快速的經濟發展在世界舞台展露頭角。因應此國際情勢而生的「權力轉移理論」便是探討既存支配強權與新興崛起挑戰者間權力轉移過程的理論。權力轉移論者認為，當新興挑戰國的能力增強至足以與既存支配強權匹配時，若同時其對現狀滿意度越來越低，便可能觸發戰爭。然而，國際政治受各區域國家所牽動，兩強間分庭抗禮且須考量區域中舉足輕重的領導國家。傳統上拉丁美洲被視為美國後院，而中國對該區域各國互動密切，更有論者提出中國直搗美國後院一說。綜觀拉美各國，其中擁有豐富天然資源、作為美洲第二大經濟體的巴西，是首屈一指的區域領導國家。是而本研究以巴西為舞台，從美國－巴西互動、中國－巴西互動，討論新興大國中國與既存支配強權美國間權力轉移的過程，從三方來往間探討權力轉移的跡象並驗證權力轉移論者的主張與假設，另外，本研究嘗試補充權力轉移論者中較少著墨的第三國－區域領導國家，在既存、新興兩強發生權力轉移時所扮演的角色與考量。 / After 2003 Iraq War and financial crisis, the power of dominator, United States is on the way fading. Meanwhile, on the other side of the pacific comes an emerging challenger -China. U.S. decline and China rise complete power transition theory as to illustrate the process of dynamic power change between dominated country and potential challenger. Power transition theory discusses that the war along with power shifting from dominanted state to potential challenger may explore while fulfilling two variables, power parity as the opportunity and negative evaluations of the status quo as the willingness. However, the world politics is well effected by regional countries even on the interactions between two major agents in power transition. Latin America is traditionally regarded as “backyard” of the U.S. but with increased cooperation from China, this claim has been slack. Among all countries in Latin America, Brazil devotees in leading the region due to its rich natural resources and political-economic influence. This article focuses on Brazil and imply competitions between the U.S. and China on the interactions with Brazil so to discuss the power transition phenomena and relevant hypothesis verifications. Furthermore, it tends to develop the autonomy and active position of third state while participating in power transition.