伊朗伊斯蘭共和國為中東地區主要國家之一。自1957年與美國合作發展核能以來，除了在柯梅尼政權初期曾短暫中斷外，歷任的領導人皆大力支持核科技的發展。從近年來的發現，顯示伊朗正在持續進行某些秘密的核計畫，使得國際憂心伊朗可能有發展核武的意圖。一旦伊朗擁有核武，將對國際安全產生重大衝擊。 本文分析的重點，在於伊朗發展核科技的背景、動機、經過，還有各國對伊朗核計畫的態度，以及伊朗核武化之後對國際安全的衝擊。 / The Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the major powers in the Middle East. Since 1957, when nuclear energy program received technical assistance from the U.S., its successive leaders have eagerly pursued the policy for developing nuclear technology. The only exception took place during the early years of the Ayatollah Khomeni government when all nuclear program was temporarily suspended. Recent disclosures show that Iran has been conducting several covert nuclear programs, which is considered by the international community as a possible step toward nuclear weapons. This thesis first analyzes the background of Iran’s nuclear development, its motives, and the evolution of its nuclear development. The U.S., Russia, the PRC, and other related powers’ attitude toward Iran’s nuclear programs will be analyzed latter. Once Iran gets nuclear weapons, its impact on the security in the Middle East as well as on the nuclear non-proliferation regime will also be examined finally.

寬頻擴散可促進國家之生產力、就業、經濟成長及國家競爭力等，若能精準找出促進寬頻擴散之關鍵影響因素，將有利於政府集中資源有效率地推動寬頻發展。本研究提出研究問題與假說，以Rogers (2003)及Hall (2006)所提出影響創新擴散速率之社經因素、採用成本、採用效益、網路效應、資訊及不確定性及產業環境等6大因素面向為基礎，蒐集OECD國家及台灣等31國家相關資料，挑選Gompertz模型進行固定寬頻擴散Panel資料迴歸分析，發現各因素在全期及不同擴散階段有不同之顯著性與影響程度，表示分階段分析有其必要性。擴散初期之關鍵影響因素為收入、教育水準、平台競爭程度、人口密度及實施LLU累積年度等5項，而擴散後期之關鍵影響因素為寬頻價格、網際網路內容、決定採用時固定寬頻用戶比例、撥接用戶比例及擁有PC家庭比例等5項，可作為政府及業者於不同擴散階段精準投入資源以有效推動寬頻擴散之參考。 本研究續以前述分析結果選取日本、南韓、美國、丹麥、瑞士及台灣進行實際擴散比較，確認前述關鍵影響因素挑選之有效性。擴散初期，台灣有高人口密度優勢，若能提早推動寬頻並推動促進競爭措施，可促進初期之快速擴散。擴散後期，台灣國際排名退步，原因為寬頻價格過高，故此階段政府及業者應特別確保寬頻價格能夠使潛在採用者有能力並願意付費採用，才能促使寬頻持續有效擴散。 最後，本研究採用與固定寬頻相同迴歸分析模型對FTTX及行動寬頻分別進行分析後，有關行動寬頻，教育水準、寬頻價格、決定採用時行動寬頻用戶比例、人口密度、網際網路內容、使用固定寬頻語音服務比例、決定採用時FTTX用戶比例及使用網際網路家庭比例等8項變數有顯著效應；有關行動寬頻，收入、寬頻價格、網際網路內容、決定採用時行動寬頻用戶比例、使用網際網路家庭比例及人口密度等6項變數有顯著效應。因此，政府及業者若擬促進特定寬頻服務發展，仍須針對其服務特性推動特定之政策或策略。其中，寬頻價格、網際網路內容、網路效應及使用網際網路家庭比例等4項因素對FTTX及行動寬頻服務之影響類似，而此4個因素與固定寬頻後期擴散之關鍵影響因素較相近，因此，對於已存在市場的服務，即使是後來以較佳品質或功能之新服務型式提供，新服務之關鍵影響因素仍較接近已存在市場服務關鍵因素。 總之，本研究不同於過去文獻，以創新擴散理論為基礎，以國家層級資料量化分析與探討寬頻擴散之關鍵影響因素，除分別提供政策及管理建議供政府及業者參考外，亦補強Rogers (2003)及Hall (2006)所提出創新擴散理論未釐清與比較創新擴散影響因素在不同擴散階段影響之不足。 / Broadband diffusion may enhance innovation, productivity, employment, economic growth, and, ultimately, national competitiveness. If key determinants for broadband diffusion are identified, governments can align its resources with them to effectively promote the diffusion. Based on the determinants of the diffusion rate identified by Rogers (2003) and Hall (2006), this research compiled data available about OECD countries as well as Taiwan to implement overall and staged panel regressions on fixed broadband diffusion by adopting Gompertz model. The findings indicate that the significance of the determinants varies between overall and staged analysis, which consequently justifies the necessity of a staged analysis. The key determinants in the early stage are income, education level, platform competition, population density, and the accumulated years of implementing LLU policy; however, in the late stage they are broadband price, Internet content, network effect, the penetration of dial-up users, and percentage of household with computer. Governments may more accurately promote broadband diffusion according to different key determinants in different stages. This research further compared the real fixed broadband diffusion of Japan, South Korea, USA, Denmark, Switzerland, and Taiwan based on the previous analysis results. The findings generally justify the choice of key determinants in the previous analysis. In the early stage, Taiwan had the advantage of high population density. If the government could have promoted fixed broad banded services and market competition earlier, the penetration would have grown much faster. In the late stage, since the broadband price was too high in Taiwan, its international ranking of fixed broadband penetration declined. Therefore, in order to further promote the diffusion of fixed broadband, the government should have ensured that the price was low enough to convince the potential adoptors to purchase broadband services. Finally, this research adopted the same approach as that of previous fixed broadband to analyze the diffusion of FTTX and mobile broadband, respectively. Education level, broadband price, network effect of FTTX, network effect of mobile broadband, Internet content, population density, percentage of household with computer, and the penetration of fixed VOIP users have significant effect on FTTX diffusion. However, income, broadband price, network effect of mobile broadband, Internet content, population density, and percentage of household with computer have significant effect on mobile broadband diffusion. Therefore, governments or operators should tailor their policies or strategies for specific services. The effects of broadband price, Internet content, network effect, and percentage of household with computer are similar in both FTTX and mobile broadband, and they are also similar to the key determinants of fixed broadband diffusion in the late stage. Therefore, even though a new service with better quality or function is introduced in an existing market, its key determinants are more similar to those of the existing service depending on its diffusion stage. In conclusion, different from previous research, this one applied national-level data to quantatively analyzed and explore the key determinants of broadband diffusion based on innovation diffusion theory. The research findings not only propose policy and management suggestions to governments and service providers, but also supplement the the theory proposed by Rogers (2003) and Hall (2006), which did not identify and compare the determinants of innovation in different diffusion stages.

企業越來越意識到使用者的重要性，知道產品設計必須以使用者為中心。但面對網路興起、讀者大量流失的報紙新聞媒體，該如何從使用者察覺出商業模式創新的機會，是當前文獻亟欲探索的主題。本論文因此提出兩大分析重點。第一，分析使用者的行為脈絡，由早期大眾的角色中找出使用者對資訊需求，理解創新擴散的關鍵。第二，透過使用者行為分析形成商業模式的各種可能性，了解如何能改變商業營運邏輯。本文以聯合報系旗下之《Upaper》捷運報做為個案，分析捷運族的移動行為與資訊需求，藉此鎖定十個新聞主題來分析使用者行為、資訊需求、設計洞見、設計方案等環環相扣的四個步驟。本研究歸納出三種人物誌：需要優先性資訊的懶人、喜愛連貫性資訊的達人、偏好比較性資訊的商人。這三種人物誌指引出三種可能的新商業模式：從新聞到情報、從廣告到商研、從紙媒到串媒。學理上，本研究提出使用者導向商業模式的形成過程及創新原則。實務上，新聞媒體組織可以理解分析使用者的微觀行為的步驟及策略。 / Enterprises are increasingly aware of the importance of users and know their product design must be user-centered. Now newspaper media is losing their readers due to the rising of Internet, so how to develop an innovative business model from users became one of hot topic of literature review. This thesis could be divided into two parts. Firstly, analyze the user behavior context in order to identify the information needs from the role of the early majority, and to realize the key point of innovation diffusion. Secondly, find the possibilities of business models through the user behavior analysis and learn how to change the business logic. In this paper, we use the United Daily News Group's "Upaper" as a case study of the mobile behavior and information needs of the commuters, thereby focusing the top ten news topics to analyze user behavior, information needs, design insights, design plan, these four steps which is closely connected and inseparable. This study identifies three Personas: lazy people who need priority information, Maven who like coherent information, businessman who prefer comparative information. These three personas point out three possible new business models: from news to intelligence, from advertising to business research, from newspaper media to the transmedia. Academically, this study presents the formation process and the innovative principles of the user-oriented business model. In practice, the media organization can understand the steps and strategies about how to analyze the user microscopic behavior.

欲透過流動性調整模型來探討流動性風險對或有償權的影響，但本篇研究著重於選擇權的分析。根據Feng (2014)，流動性折現因子由市場流動性與股價對市場流動性敏感度所構成，而且此流動性之動態過程具有均數復歸的特性。根據本篇研究結果，價內選擇權和價平選擇權的評價表現比傳統Black-Scholes好，如果進一步將流動性之跳躍性質引入模型，除了價內選擇權和價平選擇權之外，價外選擇權的評價表現亦呈現大幅度的改善。於探討模型評價表現優劣之餘，本篇文章欲更進一步探究市場不流動性對選擇權避險參數的影響。 / This study uses a liquidity-adjusted pricing model to discuss the impact of the liquidity risk on Contingent Claim. However, we focus on the analysis of option. The liquidity discount factor consists of market liquidity and the sensitivity of stock prices to market illiquidity. The dynamic process of market liquidity possesses mean-reversion. Our empirical results show the liquidity model will improve pricing performance for ITM and ATM options. After incorporating diffusive jumps in liquidity, marked improvements in pricing performance for OTM options are observed. In addition, we discuss the impacts of liquidity risk on hedging parameters.

由於醫療服務具高度專業性，故醫療照護市場長期存在資訊不對等的問題。隨著消費者利益保護及病人權利運動的興起、民眾被要求在自己的健康上承擔更多的責任，積極參與健康決策、新資訊科技的發明，使得醫院醫療與服務品質資訊的收集更容易且成本更低廉，因此，歐美各國近年來積極建立健康照護市場的品質資訊，發展醫院品質報告卡，提供民眾就醫選擇所需的資訊，期望能達成保障民眾的醫療權益，同時促使醫院提升醫療與服務品質，及增進醫療照護市場運作效率的目標。 台灣自1995年起實施全民健康保險制度，醫院與中央健康保險局的特約率達90%以上，民眾享有極大的自由選擇就醫地點及醫院，然而到目前為止，仍然欠缺足夠的醫院醫療與服務品質資訊提供給民眾做為選擇醫院的參考。其次，相關研究的結果顯示，台灣民眾對於就醫選擇資訊的提供有高度的興趣，且對民眾就醫選擇決策亦有重大的影響。 目標：本研究旨在由民眾觀點篩選醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡的指標項目，及採用創新擴散理論(innovation diffusion theory)，以結構方程模式(structural equation model)探討住院病人對醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡創新特性的知覺、態度及使用意願。 方法：本研究首先以推動社會福利、關心民眾健康權益及病人團體的30位專家為研究對象，進行二回合的德菲法(Delphi method )問卷調查篩選醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡的指標項目。其次以台北縣市不同層級及權屬別的八家醫院內、外科共500位住院病人為研究對象進行面訪問卷調查，探討住院病人創新接受度、對醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡創新特性的認知、態度及使用意願，並以結構方程模式進行研究假說與架構的驗證。 結果：1.由民眾觀點所選出屬於高適用性且高重視度的指標項目計有院內感染率、手術傷口感染率、住院病人對醫師病情解說內容的滿意度、門診病人對醫師服務態度的滿意度等九項；2.只有17.2%的住院病人在填問卷前有聽過醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡這個名詞；3.有80.2%的住院病人認為醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡對選擇醫院是非常有價值或有價值的；4.住院病人對服務品質指標的瞭解程度相對地高於對醫療品質指標的瞭解程度；5.對呈現方式的瞭解程度由高至而低排序，依序為星號、百分比、長條圖；6.影響「住院病人是否看懂醫院醫療與服務品質資訊」的因素，在控制其他變項的影響後發現，教育程度愈高者、年齡愈輕者、個人平均月收入較高者，較看懂醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡範例中指標資訊；7.創新特性中，「相容性」及「結果展示性」對「對醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡的態度」具有正向的顯著影響；8.「知覺有用性」、「對醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡的態度」及「創新接受度」對「使用醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡的意願」具有正向的顯著影響；9.影響住院病人「對醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡的態度」最主要因素為「相容性」，且達到統計上的顯著水準；10.影響住院病人「使用醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡的意願」的最主要因素為「對醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡的態度」，且達到統計上的顯著水準；11.最後要特別強調的是，本研究的新發現為「知覺有用性」、「知覺易用性」、「相容性」、「結果展示性」、「創新接受度」，兩兩之間具有統計上之顯著相關，這是本研究與以往相關研究結果的最大不同發現。 結論：住院病人認為醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡對選擇醫院是有價值的，因此，建議行政院衛生署可考慮主導，整合醫院評鑑、全民健康保險申報及病人滿意度調查的資料，分區分醫院等級，評比其在高適用性且高重視度的九項指標項目之表現，以星號及百分比的形式呈現，再以小手冊及網際網路查詢的方式對外公佈，並加強對民眾的宣導教育，讓民眾可以將品質資訊運用在就醫選擇決策上，使民眾成為明智的醫療服務消費者及醫療與服務品質的共同監督者，以提升醫療體系的運作效能。 / There exists information asymmetry between providers and consumers in healthcare market due to the highly specialized knowledge in this market. Consumers were asked to bear more responsibility on their own health and to participate in the formulation of healthcare strategies and the inventions of new technology as the uprising in the movement of consumer right protection. These would result in the reduction in costs related to the medical services and information collection. Therefore, western countries have aggressively established the medical information system and developed hospital report cards in order to protect consumers’ right, to improve quality of medical services, and to increase the efficiency of healthcare market by providing service information to consumers. Taiwan initiated the National Health Insurance since 1995 with the facility contract rate reaching over 90%. This provides consumers great access to healthcare institutions. However, few service data have been provided to consumers as a reference for the choice of providers to date. In addition, previous studies showed that consumers were interested in obtaining available service information and these information have a great influence on consumers’ decision of providers. Objectives: The purposes of this study were to select indicators of hospital report cards from public’s perspective and to adopt the innovation diffusion theory and structural equation modeling to explore inpatients’ perception characteristics of innovation, attitudes toward, and willingness to use hospital report card. Materials and Methods: Firstly, we selected 30 subjects who were experts in social welfare or consumer right to participate in two rounds of Delphi investigation to select appropriate indicators of hospital report card. Secondly, we purposely ask for the permission from eight hospitals representing different accreditation levels and ownerships to allow us to select 500 medical and surgical inpatients to conduct a face-to-face interview regarding their innovativeness, perception characteristics of innovation, attitudes toward, and willingness to use hospital report cards. Finally, we used structural equation modeling (SEM) to test research hypotheses by way of. Results: We found that (1) from publics’ perspective the most applicable and important indicators include nosocomial infection rate, postoperative infection rate, inpatient’s satisfaction toward physician’s explanation, and outpatient’s satisfaction toward physician’s service attitudes; (2) only 17.2% of surveyed sample heard the term “hospital report card” before; (3) a total of 80.2% of inpatients considered hospital report cards to be very valuable or valuable for the selection of providers; (4) inpatients understood more in service indicators than clinic indicators; (5) the order of inpatients’ preference in presentation of hospital report cards was to use stars, percentages, and bar charts; (6) those who had higher education and higher monthly incomes, and were younger were more likely to understand the information provided by hospital report cards after adjusting for other factors; (7) among inpatients’ characteristics of innovation toward hospital report card, ”compatibility” and “result demonstrability” had significant positive influence on ”inpatients’ attitude toward hospital report card”; (8)”perceived usefulness”, “inpatients’ attitude toward hospital report card”, and “inpatients’ innovativeness” had significant positive influence on ”inpatients’ willingness to use hospital report card”；(9)”compatibility” had significant positive influence on “inpatients’ attitude toward hospital report card”；(10)“inpatients’ attitude toward hospital report card” had significant positive influence on ”inpatients’ willingness to use hospital report card”；(11)finally it is worth emphasize that this study had a new finding that ”perceived usefulness”, “perceived ease to use ”, “compatibility”, “result demonstrability ”,and “inpatients’ innovativeness” had significant positive correlation between each other. Conclusions: We concluded that inpatients considered hospital report cards to be valuable for the selection of hospitals. Therefore, it is recommended that hospital report cards be initiated by the Department of Health by integrating the information from hospital accreditation, medical claims data from the National Health Insurance, and survey of patient satisfactions. The rankings of hospital shown on report cards can be presented in stars or percentages, and these pieces of information can be released through booklet or Internet. In addition, consumers should be educated to use hospital information in order to monitor hospital performance and improve the efficiency of healthcare delivery system. / 目 錄 誌謝……………………………………………………………… Ⅰ 摘要……………………………………………………………… Ⅲ Abstract………………………………………………………… Ⅴ 目錄……………………………………………………………… Ⅶ 表目錄……………………………………………………………… Ⅹ 圖目錄……………………………………………………………… Ⅻ 第一章 前言……………………………………………………… 1 第一節 研究背景與動機………………………………… 1 第二節 研究目的與研究問題…………………………… 5 第三節 研究的重要性與預期貢獻……………………… 6 第二章 文獻探討………………………………………………… 8 第一節 醫院品質報告卡的沿革……………………………… 8 第二節 醫院品質報告卡的指標項目………………………… 15 第三節 醫院品質報告卡的影響與推行障礙………………… 27 第四節 醫療品質指標系統及品質報告卡的發展步驟……… 32 第五節 創新擴散理論………………………………………… 37 第六節 結構方程模式………………………………………… 43 第七節 國內外相關實證研究之結果………………………… 48 第八節 綜合討論……………………………………………… 76 第三章 以德菲法篩選醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡之指標項目. 79 壹、研究方法……………………………………………………… 79 第一節 研究設計與流程………………………………………… 79 第二節 研究對象………………………………………………… 79 第三節 研究工具………………………………………………… 81 第四節 資料處理與分析………………………………………… 95 貳、研究結果……………………………………………………… 95 第一節 問卷回收情形…………………………………………… 95 第二節 描述性統計分析………………………………………… 96 第三節 第一回合與第二回合問卷調查結果差異分析…………105 參、討論……………………………………………………………106 第一節 重要研究結果討論………………………………………106 第二節 研究限制…………………………………………………108 第四章 住院病人對醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡的認知、態度 與使用意願……………………………………………… 110 壹、研究方法………………………………………………………110 第一節 研究架構、目的與假說…………………………………110 第二節 研究對象…………………………………………………118 第三節 研究變項之操作型定義…………………………………121 第四節 研究工具…………………………………………………124 第五節 資料處理與分析…………………………………………126 貳、研究結果………………………………………………………128 第一節 問卷信度及效度的檢定…………………………………129 第二節 樣本基本特質與研究變項的統計分析…………………130 第三節 研究假說與架構的驗證…………………………………170 參、討論……………………………………………………………178 第一節 重要研究結果討論………………………………………178 第二節 研究限制…………………………………………………187 第五章 結論與建議………………………………………………188 第一節 結論………………………………………………………188 第二節 建議………………………………………………………191 參考文獻……………………………………………………………194 附錄…………………………………………………………………209 附錄一、德菲法問卷專家效度名單………………………………209 附錄二、德菲法問卷專家名單……………………………………210 附錄三、醫院品質報告卡指標項目適用性及重要性評分問卷 212 附錄四、醫院品質報告卡指標項目適用性及重要性評分問卷 (第二回合) ………………………………………………224 附錄五、住院病人對「醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡」的認知、 態度與使用意願之研究問卷專家效度名單……………246 附錄六、住院病人對「醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡」的認知、 態度與使用意願之研究…………………………………247 附錄七、醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡的範例……………………254 表目錄 表2-1品質報告卡的種類及指標項目…………………………… 20 表2-2台灣有關醫療品質指標的實證研究……………………… 50 表2-3台灣用來評估醫院醫療品質的指標彙總表……………… 56 表2-4有關民眾(病人)選擇醫院(醫師)考量因素的實證研究… 58 表2-5台灣有關醫院品質報告卡及民眾就醫選擇資訊需求的相 關研究 ……………………………………………………… 66 表3-1本研究初步選取醫院醫療與服務品質指標的來源或依據…84 表3-2本研究所採用醫院醫療與服務品質指標的操作型定義……87 表3-3問卷發放及回收情形…………………………………………96 表3-4德菲法專家問卷分析結果……………………………………99 表3-5適用性前十名指標項目及其平均值 ………………………103 表3-6重視度前十名指標項目及其平均值 ………………………104 表3-7適用性與重視度交叉分析矩陣表 …………………………104 表3-8高適用性且高重視度指標項目 ……………………………105 表3-9Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test 檢定結果………………… 109 表4-1研究對象分配表—依層級別、權屬別及性別分 …………120 表4-2預試問卷各成份信度結果 …………………………………125 表4-3有效樣本分佈情形—依醫院別 ……………………………131 表4-4樣本個人基本特質與就醫選擇資訊搜尋及需求狀況 ……133 表4-5對醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡的認知 ……………………137 表4-6對醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡之指標及呈現方式的瞭解 程度…… ……………………………………………………139 表4-7醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡創新特性之描述性分析 ……140 表4-8醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡的態度及使用意願之描述性 分析………………………………………………………… 144 表4-9創新接受度量表之描述性分析 ……………………………145 表4-10住院病人自覺醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡對選擇醫院有 無價值影響因素的雙變項分析……………………………147 表4-11病人自覺品質報告卡對選擇醫院有無價值影響因素之複 迴歸分析……………………………………………………149 表4-12住院前有無先探聽醫院醫療與服務品質資訊影響因素的 雙變項分析…………………………………………………151 表4-13住院前有無探聽醫院醫療與服務品質資訊影響因素之複 迴歸分析……………………………………………………153 表4-14住院病人是否看懂醫院醫療與服務品質資訊影響因素的 雙變項分析…………………………………………………155 表4-15住院病人是否看懂品質資訊影響因素之複迴歸分析……157 表4-16住院病人是否需要醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡影響因素 的雙變項分析………………………………………………159 表4-17住院病人是否需要醫院品質報告卡影響因素之複迴歸分 析……………………………………………………………161 表4-18住院病人會不會參考醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡影響因 素的雙變項分析 …………………………………………163 表4-19住院病人會不會參考醫院品質報告卡影響因素之複迴歸 分析…………………………………………………………165 表4-20住院病人是否會更換就醫醫院影響因素的雙變項分析…167 表4-21住院病人會不會更換到其他的醫院看病影響因素之複迴 歸分析…… ………………………………………………169 表4-22住院病人創新接受度、對醫院醫療與服務品質報告卡創 新特性之知覺、態度與使用意願理論架構因果模式之配 適度檢定結果………………………………………………171 表4-23整體模式之多元相關平方(SMC) …………………………171 表4-24外因潛在變項與其測量變項關係之標準化係數之檢定…173 表4-25內因潛在變項與其測量變項關係之標準化係數之檢定…174 表4-26潛在變項間之因果關係的標準化係數之檢定……………174 表4-27外因潛在變項間相關係數之檢定…………………………175 表4-28研究模式的間接、直接與整體效果………………………175 表4-29研究假說檢定結果…………………………………………176 圖目錄 圖2-1Rogers的創新--決策過程典範………………………………41 圖3-1德菲法研究流程………………………………………………80 圖4-1研究架構 ……………………………………………………111 圖4-2本研究之結構方程模式關係路徑圖 ………………………177

大部分在台灣的客家人都會說中文,但是其中有些客家人說國語時會留下客語的遺跡。本篇論文已語言上,場合正式性上,地理區域,以及社會因素等方面探討部分客家人把國語的/ɕ/唸成[s]的原因。 本篇論文包含量化分析以及質化分析,在量化分析上透過面對面的交談,念文章,以及唸單字等方法來收集資料。量化分析上總共有32位受試者,且受試者依照性別,教育程度,年齡以及地理區域以二分法的方式。而在質化分析上的受試者和量化分析的受試者為同一批人,但只有29位再次參與調查。 本篇主要的發現為: (1)在語言內部因素中,字頻,鄰近音,以及音節結構對於語音變異皆有影響。(2)語音變異的確有擴散的現象。(3)在語言外部的因素中,年齡以及地理區域的影響比場合正式性及性別來得大,但教育程度的影響則很微弱。整體而言:(1)本篇調查的語音透過語言內部,場合正式性,社會以及地理空間擴散 (2)語言內部以及語言外部皆對與音變異有影響,但語言外部的因素的影響比內部因素來得大。 / Most Hakka speakers in Taiwan, if not all, speak Mandarin Chinese. Among them, many leave some traces of their Hakka background in their Mandarin pronunciation. This thesis aims at analyzing the linguistic, situational, geographical, and social causes of the emergence of [s] as a phonetic variant of /ɕ/ in Mandarin by Hakka speakers. In this study, both quantitative and qualitative analyses were conducted to locate the internal and the external constraints on the target phonetic variation. Those data for quantitative analyses were collected from the linguistic production by 32 native speakers of Hakka in casual conversation, reading passage, and reading characters. Subjects of this study are equally distributed to two genders, two education levels, two age groups, and two geographical areas (namely, in Taoyuan City and Chungli City, two cities in which a large proportion of Hakka speakers reside) . As for data for qualitative analyses collected from 29 of the 32 subjects of the quantitative tests, only those parts of the qualitative design that were implemented correctly were analyzed. The major findings of this study are (1) among the internal factors, word frequency, preceding vowels, and syllable structure were found to be influential to the target phonetic variation; (2) the target phonetic variation does expands through lexical diffusion; and (3) among the external factors, age and geographical area are more influential than situational formality and gender, but the impact of education level is weak. General conclusion of this study include (1) this target phonetic variation is expanding gradually through linguistic, situational, and social/geographical spaces; and (2) both internal and external factors are effective, with external factors being more influential than internal factors. Key words: phonetic variation, lexical diffusion, formality, Hakka dialect, sociolinguistic variation, ethnic identity

本研究的主題是平台商業模式，研究的主要動機是近來不管是從SAP全球輔導過的各產業企業或是在EMBA探討過的無數個案中，發現一個成功企業都有一個共通的元素，就是它們都擁有一個優秀的商業模式，而進一步去檢視這些企業，發覺越來越多成功企業是以建立平台連結多方群體的平台式商業模式快速崛起，它們打破競爭的疆界，很多屬於傳統直線式產業鏈的企業因而紛紛敗下陣來。 鑑於研究者在剛出社會時曾經創過業，加上在外商的工作雖然收獲高於一般人，但總覺得為人作嫁且外商績效掛帥變動性大，因此有朝一日還是想要再次自行創業；加上此刻台灣的產業都面臨轉型，因而想利用這個論文來好好研究與探討這些平台企業的成功之道，歸結出實務建議供未來再次創業時參考，並提供給想轉型或發展平台商業模式的台灣企業參考！ 平台商業模式廣泛出現在各種產業中，受限於研究資源限制，本研究僅以電子商務為研究範圍，本研究選擇國內四家電子商務領導企業為個案研究對象，研究其成功的平台策略，及如何以平台為營運模式持續成長。另外，本研究也以商業模式圖（Business Model Canvas）來分析個案公司，探討其如何建立目標客戶群？如何建立營收模式？如何持續成長？最後，整合與分析其平台策略與商業模式的優劣，歸結出發展成功平台商業模式所應具備的資源與方法。本研究彙整結論如下： （一）找到存在於群體間尚未被滿足的需求，利用平台連接群體並建立互動機制，來提供價值與滿足需求並創造營收。 （二）建立完整的平台生態圈機制設計，讓平台本身與各邊群體成為關鍵資源。 （三）建立成長策略，持續以創新及創意來創造新的平台核心優勢來克服競爭與覆蓋威脅。 關鍵字：商業模式，平台策略，電子商務，創新擴散，價值網，網路效應，賽局理論。 / The theme of this research is to study the platform business model. The main motivation is the recent study whether counseling in each industry from the SAP global enterprise customers or EMBA explored in countless cases. The finding is that a successful business has one common element which they have a good business model. And further to examine these companies, most of the researches show that more and more successful companies have a significant and fast growth through platform business model that they build up a platform to connect multi-group. They break the boundaries of competition, so lots of the traditional linear chain companies have been defeated. Since the researcher used to start-up a company in earlier career stage. Also, although working in the global company has very good compensation compared with the local company. But always felt that work for others without profiting return and global vendor is pure performance driven with heavy pressure and dynamic change. So the researcher plans to re-start up the new business in the future. Besides, at the moment that all the Taiwan manufacture oriented companies are facing business transformation. Therefore want to take advantage of this thesis to investigate success of these platform companies. To conclude with best practice recommendations for reference once start-up a new company in the future. Also, provide reference for Taiwan companies that want to turn business transformation into platform business or start-up a new platform business. Platform business model is widely present in a variety of industries, subject to the limitations of research resources, this study only focus on the scope of E-commerce. This study chose four domestic leading E-commerce enterprise as a case study. Aim to study its successful platform strategy, and how to continue to grow with platform business model. In addition, this study also adopt the business model canvas to analyze the cases of companies that explore how to establish the target audience？How to build up revenue stream？How to continue to grow？Finally, consolidate and analyze the merits of its platform strategy and business model. And came out the must have resources and methods to develop a successful platform business model. This study aggregated the following conclusions: 1. To find out the unmet needs between the groups, take advantage of the interactive platform to connect groups and establish mechanisms to provide value to meet the demand and create revenue. 2. To establish an complete platform ecosystem with solid mechanisms. Let the platform itself and each side of the groups become the key resource. 3. To form a growth strategy, continue to equip innovation and creativity to create new core competence for a platform to overcome the threat of competition and coverage. Key Words：Business Model, Platform Strategy, E-Commerce, Innovation Diffusion, Value Net, Network Effect, Game Theory.

全球行動電話用戶數於2002年達到12億，首度超過固定電話用戶數之11億；行動電話用戶數並於2008年達41億，為固定電話用戶數(13億)之3倍以上。行動電話相對於固定電話之主要優勢在於系統之建置成本低及佈建速度快；行動電話之快速普及已成為創新擴散研究之重要題材。 行動電話擴散之研究為選取一成長模型(例如Gompertz、Logistic或Bass模型)並類比該模型以求出擴散之參數(例如成長速率)，以進一步(1)了解相關驅動因子(例如技術創新、市場開放等)對擴散參數之影響，及(2)延伸擴散模型曲線以預測未來之成長。 惟成長模型之選取尚無原理原則可供遵循而具隨機性(ad hoc basis)。為找出模型選用之可能規律，以降低模型選用之隨機性並提高成長預測之準確度，本研究以十二個代表性國家(巴、中、法、德、印、日、韓、俄、星、台、英、美)至2007年之資料以比較三個最常用之成長模型之績效，即Gompertz、Logistic及Bass模型。模型績效逐年比較標準係採用rmse值，並輔以Friedman test檢測模型績效差異之顯著性，再對照模型之機制意涵，以進一步了解最適模型之選用原則。 此外，台灣行動電話普及率於2002年為108%居全球之冠，而中國自2001年起取代美國成為全球具最多行動電話用戶數之單一國家，台灣及中國屬行動電話擴散之重要個案，惟目前尚缺此二個案之實證研究。為補足此一缺口，本研究亦對台灣及中國行動電話擴散之驅動因子進行實證研究，以進一步了解擴散之關鍵驅動力。 研究發現由於目前統計軟體之進步，Gompertz、Logistic及Bass三模型均可獲致極佳之匹配度而難分軒輊，惟模型預測力(延伸曲線)則具差異性。12個模型選用樣本國家中之8個國家(巴、中、法、德、日、韓、英、美)係以Gompertz模型具較佳之預測力；依Gompertz模型機制意涵，代表行動電話擴散早期係受網路外部性(口耳相傳)影響，惟至擴散後期(例如過了擴散極大值之一半)則已不相關。此外，若因市場開放等重大變因造成行動電話之快速擴散，則Logistic模型具有較佳之績效，如台灣及俄羅斯屬之。依Logistic模型機制意涵，代表擴散係受網路外部性所影響。Bass模型應用於行動電擴散時，因該模型所算出之創新係數偏低，績效與Logistic模型相近，而Logistic模型為Bass模型之創新係數為0時之特例。 台灣及中國行動電話擴散之驅動因子研究發現(1)價格下降及(2)預付卡之推行對加速擴散具顯著性，兩者均對低階市場之採用具影響力。鑑於高階市場將先飽和，爰未來加速行動電話擴散之關鍵驅動因子應係與推動低階市場採用具密切相關性。以中國為例，未來市場開放競爭造成價格再度大幅下降，將進一步促低階市場採用，加速中國行動電話之普及。 / The number of mobile telephone subscriptions reached 1.2 billion globally in 2002, exceeding fixed-line telephony subscriptions (1.1 billion) for the first time. The number of mobile telephone subscriptions reached 4.1 billion globally in 2008, over three times the number of fixed-line telephone subscriptions (1.3 billion). The main advantages of mobile telephony over fixed-line are low cost and rapid facility deployment. The rapid diffusion of mobile telephony has become an important topic in innovation diffusion. The conventional approach to studying mobile telephony diffusion is to analogize a single growth model, such as the Gompertz, Logistic or Bass model, and calculate the model parameters, for example growth rate. The significance of certain selected driving forces, such as technology innovation or market competition, to the studied parameters, such as growth rate, is then estimated. The diffusion growth can also be forecast by extrapolating the diffusion curve. Utilizing the growth model analogy is the first step in analyzing mobile telephony diffusion. However, no principles or rules exit for selecting a growth model. To identify rules for model selection to reduce randomness and increase forecast accuracy, this work uses 12 sample countries, namely Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, the UK and the USA, employing data prior to 2008 to compare the performance of three most commonly used models, namely the Gompertz, Logistic and Bass models. The root mean square error (rmse) is chosen as the criterion for measuring annual model performance. The work uses the Friedman test to examine the significance of differences in performance between models. The implications of model mechanisms are emphasized to investigate the selection rule for the most appropriate model. The penetration of mobile telephony in Taiwan was 108% in 2002, ranking first in the world. Furthermore, in 2001 the number of mobile telephony in China replaced the United States as number one in the world. Both Taiwan and China are important examples for mobile telephony diffusion. However, no empirical investigation has been performed in these two cases. To fill this gap, this work estimated the driving forces for mobile telephony diffusion in Taiwan and China to learn about the critical drivers of the mobile telephony diffusion. Empirical results indicate that due to improvements in statistical software, providing good fitness for all three models, namely the Gompertz, Logistic and Bass models, distinguishing which has the best fitness is difficult. However, the performance of the three models is distinguishable when forecasting based on extrapolating the diffusion curve. In eight of the 12 examples, namely Brazil, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, the UK and the USA, the Gompertz model is the most appropriate model for forecasting. The mechanism of the Gompertz model means that during the initial stage the diffusion is correlated with network externalities (namely word of mouth), however, this correlation reduces during the later stages (such as pass one half of the maximum potential). Moreover, the cases of Taiwan and Russia demonstrated that the Logistic model performs well provided some significant driver of the diffusion exists. The mechanism of the Logistic model means that the diffusion is correlated with network externalities throughout the whole diffusion. Furthermore, using Chinese data, when the Bass model is applied, because of its low innovation coefficient, it performs similarly to the Logistic model, which is a special case of the Bass model in which the innovation coefficient equals zero. Empirical results for the critical driving forces of mobile telephony diffusion in Taiwan and China indicate that (1) reducing prices and (2) the launch of pre-paid services are crucial to mobile telephony diffusion. Both factors are essential to mobile telephony adoption in low-end markets. The high-end market is the first to be saturated by mobile telephony adoption, future drivers of the mobile telephony diffusion should be highly correlated with low-end market demand. Taking China as an example, the opening of the market to further reduce tariffs will attract mobile telephony adoption in the low-end market, facilitating the mobile telephony diffusion.

經由愈來愈多的實證研究發現，的確在利率的變動過程中，除了包含連續性行為，即遵循”擴散”模式(diffusion process)，亦包含了不連續性行為，也就是有著跳躍(jump)的情形發生。因此顯示出假設利率隨機過程僅為連續性的擴散模型已是不足夠的，跳躍-擴散模型(Jump-diffusion model)顯然會比純粹擴散模型有著更好的解釋能力。而市場模型(LIBOR market model)的提出，則說明了遠期LIBOR利率模型較能描述市場實際的利率型態，並且可方便使用市場資訊，進行模型參數校準。 所以本研究旨在以LIBOR market model 加上跳躍過程，即遠期LIBOR利率的跳躍-擴散模型，分別針對歐洲美元期貨與利率結構型債券中的滾雪球式累息債券建立評價方法。由於所選用動態模型的複雜度，使得封閉解的求出不易，因此在文中，最後是採用蒙地卡羅模擬法，求兩商品的數值解。在後續研究上，本文還挑出了幾個最直接影響商品價值的因素，如殖利率、波動度、跳躍幅度等，進行各種情境下商品價值的敏感度分析，以提供投資人與發行商在考量風險因子所在時的一個參考。

由於台灣地區的生育率變化較大，之前的研究發現其他各國的生育率模型不見得適用，亟需建立可反映我國國情的生育率模型。本文引用台灣、日本、荷蘭、美國（亞洲、歐洲、美洲）等經濟發達國家的出生資料，配適包括Gamma、Lee-Carter、主成份分析、年齡組個別估計法、擴散模型等較為常用的模型，比較這些國家配適結果的異同。分析發現，如果要預測總生育率，台灣、日本、美國都是以年齡組生育率個別配適擴散模型的結果最佳，荷蘭則是年齡組個別估計法；在年齡組生育率的預測方面，台灣、日本、荷蘭都是以年齡組生育率個別配適擴散模型最好，美國則是以年齡組個別估計最好。此外再從相對穩定性或相對效率的角度來評判，一樣是以年齡組生育率個別配適擴散模型或年齡組個別估計的總生育率預測結果最佳。最後還觀察到台灣地區和各縣市的有偶婦女比例和生育率呈正向關係，平均生育年齡和生育率呈反向關係，各縣市在有偶婦女比例、生育率、平均生育年齡的變化並不一致，各年齡組有偶婦女比例和生育率的改變也不盡相同。