1978年中國大陸改革開放，吹皺經濟市場一池春水。住房公有制、住房福利制觀念相繼被打破，揭開房產制度改革曙光。鄧小平在1992年南巡講話後，定調「有中國特色社會主義市場經濟」的基本路線，從根本上解決市場經濟意識形態問題，自此中國大陸房地產市場活水澈底被激發。近十餘年來，中國大陸全國商品房平均價格從2000年2,112元人民幣，攀升至2010年5,032元人民幣，部分重點城市如北京、上海、廣州..等更早已突破萬元人民幣大關。 房產市場不對稱發展加深中國大陸社會結構性矛盾與衝突對立，高房價顯然無益其國內經濟健全發展，這也讓大陸中央不得不正視此一嚴肅問題積極採取宏觀調控手段，企圖壓制漲勢不斷的房價期能消彌廣大民怨。而與之同時因為覬覦中國大陸經濟高速發展背後廣大利益而競相投入中國市場的外資也就格外引起大陸政府的關注，因為「外資炒房」的傳言與疑慮一直困擾著中共當局，在高房價、高民怨的氛圍壟罩下，產官學界檢討外資聲浪甚囂塵上；然而，高房價的背後是否一定有外資刻意炒作？值得探究與思考。 本研究嘗試以中國大陸天津做為觀察標的，運用共整合ARDL模型探討外商直接投資（FDI）對房地產價格波動的影響，釐清外資在房地產價格所扮演的角色。實證模型並納入物價指數（CPI）、人均收入（INC）、貸款利率（INT）、匯率（EXC）與股價（STOCK）為解釋變數，以做為觀察總體經濟因素對大陸房地產市場的影響。實證結果表明，在短期關係上外資的確有拉抬房價效果，不過長期關係影響並不顯著，顯示外資不是實際推升房地產價格的主因，角色定位應為「從犯」而非「主嫌」。研究結果並發現，匯率變動對房地產價格有著顯著實質影響，這意味如果大陸政府要運用匯率這項工具來抑制漲勢不斷的房價，就必須讓人民幣適時升值。不過目前中國大陸仍屬以出口導向為大宗的國家，長期而言，人民幣升值將對其出口造成某種程度衝擊，是以在匯率政策的操作上恐陷入兩難（升值或貶值)的困境。 / The reform and opening in mainland China in 1978 had fretted the surface of the water of the economic market. The concepts of public housing and housing welfare system had been broken, leading to a line of hope in the reform of the house property system. After Xiaoping Deng's speech during his south tour, he set up the basic route of the "socialism market economy with Chinese features", resolving the market economy ideology issue from the root. Since then, the house property market in Chine has been activated. In the recent decade, the average price of commercial residential buildings had increased from YMB$2,112 in 2000 to YMB$5,032 in 2010. In major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, the prices had already went over YMB$10,000. The asymmetric development of the house property market has further caused structural conflicts and confrontations in Mainland China. Apparently, high housing prices were not beneficial to the sound development of the domestic economy. And thus the central government in Mainland China had to face up to this serious problem and aggressively took the microscope controlling measure in the attempt to suppress the increasing housing prices to resolve people's complaints. In the mean time, under the desire for the great profits behind the rapid development of the economy in Mainland China, foreign funds had entered the Chinese market one by one, getting some extra attention of the Chinese government. Because the rumor of "foreign funds in real estate speculation" and some doubles had continuously bothered the Chinese government, under the atmosphere with high housing prices and high social grievance, requests for reviewing foreign funds in the industrial, governmental, academic, and research circles were very broad. However, whether there was real estate speculation with foreign funds behind high housing prices is worth thinking and studying. Using Tianjin City in Mainland China as a target for observation, this study attempted to apply the autoregressive ARDL model to explore the influences of foreign direct investment (FDI) on price changes in housing property, in order to clarify the role foreign funds play in real estate prices. The independent variables included in the model were consumer price index (CPI), per capita income (INC), loan interest (INT), exchange rate (EXC), and stock price (STOCK), in order to observe the influences of the macro economical factors on the Chinese real estate market. According to the empirical results, in the short run, foreign funds could indeed drive up housing prices. However, in the long run, the influence was not significant. This means foreign funds are not the main cause driving up real estate prices. The role they played was a "partner in crime" instead of a "main suspect". The study found that there was indeed a significant and substantial influence of exchange rate changes on real estate prices, meaning that if the Chinese government would like to surprise increasing housing prices using exchange rates as a tool, it is necessary to allow YMB appreciation. However, currently, Mainland China is still a country with mainly exports. In the long run, YMB appreciation may lead to certain impact on China's exportation. Therefore, operating exchange rate related policies may lead to a dilemma (to appreciate or depreciate).

兩岸情勢因為軍事緩和，而使經濟漸漸升溫，目前大陸已開放所有的三十一個省市自治區可以赴臺旅遊，每年陸客來臺的數量均已兩位數增長，對促進臺灣的觀光產業與國內經濟市場有著不小的影響力，這到底是純商業化的開放，還是背後隱含著其他的目的？ 本研究探討大陸從鄧小平至胡錦濤時期的對臺旅遊政策發展過程，大陸從被動到主動，再經由探討軍事對峙時期至和平開放時期不同的對臺旅遊政策，必遵循著中共對臺政策的最高領導方針，並配合兩岸重大的政治事件，在各種敏感時機所提出的對臺旅遊政策。 中共對臺政策的核心為中共中央對臺工作領導小組，現均由中共中央總書記擔任該小組召集人，隨著兩岸情勢的進展，由中共各國家級領導人組成，並靈活配置商貿、軍事等高階首長為成員，展開對臺工作，並由國臺辦為指揮核心，直接組織與指揮政府系統的國家旅遊局與民間組織的海協會，完成對臺旅遊政策的實踐。 中共以首都及兩個直轄市，另加上與臺灣關係密切的兩個城市為第一波開放首航臺灣的城市開始，有著漸進式的開放規律，現已開放26個省市自治區共41個直航機場，但對於幾個少數民族居多的省份，截至目前為止卻尚未有要開放直航的訊息。各省陸客來臺數量年年增加，總體消費金額年年提高，對臺灣觀光產業產生了巨大的生態轉變，也加大了中共對臺民間影響的力道。 研究發現不止中共欲藉陸客消費能力影響臺灣，港資也充分利用臺港的自由貿易進入臺灣掌握了大量的陸客市場；政府對於兩於陸客來臺只重視人數，而不重視交易制度，造成了臺灣地接社受到大陸組團社的予取予求；臺灣旅遊產業因陸客來臺雖有受益，但也被多方瓜分；而由臺灣提出的九二共識則是兩岸和平發展的基石，也是陸客來臺能持續維持的主要因素。

本文探討外人直接投資對於俄羅斯貧窮問題之影響。透過質性研究說明俄羅斯外人直接投資趨勢與貧窮分布，並輔以量化研究解釋兩者間的關係；在變數選取部分，除主要之各地區外人直接投資流量、絕對貧窮率外，本文還納入人力資本、國內投資、公部門角色、貿易開放程度與總體經濟環境等變數進行研究。樣本資料根據俄羅斯國家統計局，選擇資料完整的71個聯邦主體作為研究對象，分析期間為2000至2008年，共639個觀察值。 　　實證結果發現，外人直接投資與貧窮率之間，並未存在顯著的負向關係；然而，若不考慮各聯邦主體間變異存在與否，甚至得出外人直接投資將惡化貧窮情形的結果；在其餘變數的部分，發現除了政府支出的結論與預期相反、人力資本不顯著外，其餘變數均符合預期，顯示貿易越為開放、總體經濟穩定且經濟成長的地區，貧窮問題較為和緩，在國內投資部分，雖未達統計顯著標準，但結果也傾向國內投資的提升有助於降低貧窮率。此外，若將外人直接投資視為依變數，再結合原先以貧窮為依變數之實證結果，可發現貿易開放程度為唯一同時對吸引外人直接投資與降低貧窮率皆達統計顯著水準的變數，即開放貿易助於提升外人直接投資與降低貧窮水準。

過去傢俱業的產業價值鏈，大多採取專業分工模式。近年來，傢俱業整體產業經營環境開始產生轉變，導致國內傢俱業的外銷市場受到嚴重威脅，更重要的是，隨傢俱產業逐漸走向高級化、精緻化及多樣化，傳統廉價大量生產模式的傢俱業，已漸漸被取代。因此，台灣傢俱業者已逐漸體認到技術整合與技術升級的重要性。近來許多傢俱業者開始紛紛從專業分工模式，轉為朝向上、下游整合的經營模式，從專注少樣多量轉為多樣少量的生產模式。個案公司在本身資源相對不足的情況下，再加上為了加速回應市場變化的速度，以及提高對消費者的服務價值，即藉由虛擬垂直整合模式，間接減少消費者交易成本，策略性的採取上、下游虛擬整合模式，提供全方位的整合性服務。本研究即探討個案公司如何架構更具彈性的新興商業模式，有效進行產業價值鏈的整合，架構一個整合各方資源的虛擬平台，維持經營彈性，同時探討虛擬垂直整合模式的可行性及成功要素。 / The value chain of furniture mostly appears professional job assignment in the past years. Recently, furniture industry changes in operating environment caused export market to be seriously threatened. Furniture industry had transferred mass production mode into sophistication and diversity. Therefore, Managers with furniture industry have become conscious that technology integration and upgrades are very importance. Besides, many managers transferred specialization mode into up-and downstream integrated business model. In this paper, the case company which is relative shortage of resources adopts up-and downstream integrated business model to provide total solution services in order to response to changes in the market. The paper discusses the issue of how to build up a new business model, integrate value chain and creative a resources pool of virtual platform. Finally, the feasibility and success factors of virtual vertical integration are also discussed.

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台灣經濟高度依賴對外貿易，經濟成長與出口成長的變化關係密切，但是近年來由於廠商大量對外投資，赴海外設立生產基地，特別是製造業中主要的資訊電子產業很多廠商到大陸設廠。因此部分人士認為海外生產係造成台灣出口不振，就業機會減少，產業空洞化的原因。但也有人認為這反而證明台灣在產業全球化、自由化及產業升級轉型的成功證明。 台灣對外投資從1987年開始蓬勃發展，1990年開放對大陸間接投資後，對外投資金額更是快速成長，也形成廠商大量海外生產的營運模式，這種現象到底對台灣就業市場造成何種影響？本論文主要研究海外生產會不會造成就業機會減少等產業空洞化現象？特別是對於製造業中海外生產比重越來越高的資訊電子產業而言，海外生產比率變動情形與該產業就業人數之間到底存在何種連動關係，對廠商勞工雇用又具何種影響？ 本論文研究發現資訊電子產業海外投資增加及外銷比例的提升，可以增加就業機會，但海外生產是造成勞工雇用減少的主因。資訊電子產業產品生命週期短，低附加價值製程應開放赴大陸或其他地區投資，高附加價值製程設法留在台灣生產；也就是將核心競爭力的關鍵技術或零組件保留台灣製造，以製程切割，垂直分工的模式開放對外投資，才能維持國內廠商的國際競爭力，提高產品附加價值，加強研發創新、品牌行銷，協助廠商在地升級及全球佈局，才能減少海外生產對國內勞工雇用的衝擊。 另外本論文建議，政府應該改善投資環境，輔導廠商在地升級，協助提升廠商全球運籌佈局能力，改善生活環境加強人才培訓，才能提升廠商競爭力，如此才能有效降低廠商海外生產的比率。 / Taiwan economy is highly dependent on its international trade -- economic growth is highly influenced by exports growth. Nevertheless, the increasing outward investment, especially the huge IT investments in China, may change this trend. Some people argue that overseas production is the key factor of slacked export, diminished job opportunities, and industrial hollowing-out, the other people insist that the above phenomenon is an evidence of Taiwan’s globalization, liberalization, and Industrial Upgrades. The Taiwan’s outward investment started from 1987, accelerated in 1990, the year that Taiwanese government lifted the ban against indirectly investing China and formed a new business model of “Taiwan Orders, Overseas （Chinese） Productions”. What is the influence of this new business model? Is this the root of diminished job opportunities and industrial hollowing-out? What’s the correlation between overseas production growth rate and unemployment rate in Taiwan IT Industry particularly? This article discovered the increment of outward investment and export ratio in IT industry could boost job opportunities; however, overseas production is the key factor to cause layoffs. As a result of short product life cycle characters, the low value-added IT production should apply open door policy while high value-added ones should be encouraged to produce locally and keep the core competency domestically. Keep the key component or technology manufacture in Taiwan will help create Taiwanese international competitiveness, increase added values, inspire research and innovation, direct brand marketing, upgrade industries levels, connect globally, and lower the impact of overseas production on employment. In addition, this article advised the government should cement Taiwanese companies’ international competitiveness and lower overseas production ratio by improving the investment climate, assisting local industries’ upgrades and the abilities of global logistics, improving living environment, and reinforcing manpower cultivation.

本研究動機，乃分析部份傳統產業，透過兩岸分工，是否真的能為企業延續生命並帶來獲利的增加，及經營績效的提昇。茲以嬰童產業為例，從以下三個面向進行實質的探討：一、探討臺灣生育率驟降，中國大陸市場所提供的機會與發展。二、採行兩岸分工後對於企業營運績效的影響。三、從嬰童服飾產業價值鏈，探討台商營運模式與轉型契機。 本論文分六個章節，第一章為緒論，第二章為分工理論相關文獻，第三章為台灣與中國大陸童裝服飾產業概況，第四章為麗嬰房公司深度訪談，包括麗嬰房公司SWOT分析、五力分析、營運策略分析、兩岸營運分析，第五章童裝分工模式，分析產業特性與價值鏈，國際童裝與兩岸麗嬰房分工模式分析，第六為結論與建議。本研究以麗嬰房個案研究的方式來進行，研究工具包含收集資料以及深入訪談。 針對嬰童產業，本研究之結論與建議有四： 一.以大陸廉價的勞工設立工廠，從微笑曲線來看卻是附加價值最低的投資。二.「自有品牌 + 自有通路 + 國際嬰童品牌合作」麗嬰房核心競爭策略，台商經營嬰童服飾，擺脫代工廠的角色，此一商業模式可為經營參考。三.針對兩岸不同的市場需求，採取水平分工，但在朝向國際化或區域性發展，母公司負責產品設計研發整合，繼而兩岸的生產功能整合，藉合併生產擴大規模經濟。四、國際童裝紛紛將生產基地設在中國大陸，避免斷絕與世界名牌童裝接軌的機會，政府應加速開放中國製童裝紡品輸入，加速台灣嬰童服飾產業與世界領導品牌合作。 / The cause of this study is to analyze whether it is possible for some traditional industries to extend company lives, increase profits and promote operational performance through division of labor across the straits. I will present the case of childrenwear and baby garment industry for substantial examinations in three dimensions: 1. To examine the opportunity and development of China market due to the drop of birth rates in Taiwan. 2. To discuss how business operational performances are influenced by division of labor across the straits. 3. To explore the business models and the critical moment of transformation for Taiwan business through the value chain of children industry. The research consists of six chapters. Chapter one is a general introduction. Chapter two is the documentation of vertical and horizontal division of labor theory. Chapter three outline of childrenwear and baby garment industry in Taiwan and China. Chapter four presents the in-depth interview with Les Enphants, topics include SWOT Analysis, the Five Forces Model, Operational Strategy Analysis, Analysis of Business Operation across the Strait, global division of labor for Nike childrenwear vs. division of labor across the Strait for Les Enphants. Chapter five on the division of labor of childrenwear, analysis of industry characteristics and value chain, and analysis on division of labor of international chidrenwear companies and les enphants. Chapter six draws up conclusion and suggestions. Les Enphants is the major company of case study, the research methods include data collection and in-depth interviews. The conclusion and suggestions to childrenwear and baby garment industry are: 1.The cheap and affluent labors in China is the least value-added investment in terms of Smile Curve theory. 2.“Own-brand + own channel + international children brand cooperation” adopted by Les Enphants is a feasible business model for Taiwan’s childrenwear and baby garment industry. 3.Horizontal division of labor is necessary for different markets across the Straits, but early integration of product design is the key for production combination in larger scale. 4.More and more international childrenwear companies set up production base in Mainland China, in order not to cut ourselves from international re-known childrenwear brands, the government should lift the bar on the import of childrenwear and textile products made in China, to speed up the cooperation of Taiwan childrenwear industry and international leading brands.

台灣經濟屬於淺碟型經濟，且受限於缺乏自然資源，所以資本的形成相當的不容易。為求經濟的發展，資本的形成，尤其是固定投資的累積相當的重要。而資本形成的數種財源中，以僑外直接投資對國際收支與通貨膨脹的壓力影響較小，並能引進新生產技術及經營管理知識，從而促進產業的持續成長與企業管理現代化理想的實現。台灣之所以能成為經濟上的亞洲四小龍之一，這當中經濟成長的背後資金來源，僑外商的直接投資是不可或缺的。近年來，台灣的名目利率不斷下跌，甚至實質利率為負的情況下，投資動能卻仍顯不足。為瞭解構成廠商投資意願的決定因素，故以對投資具相當敏感度的僑外商為研究的主要對象，所以本文的主要目的即是探討僑外直接投資台灣的決定因素。 本研究使用1995年至2004年間的時間數列月資料，以普通最小平方迴歸模型，估計僑外資、僑資、外資、製造業及服務業等五種模型的直接投資決定因素。結果顯示在僑外資及外資的模型中，其顯著變數有工資、利率、世界競爭力及政黨輪替。僑資模型的顯著因素有犯罪率及政黨輪替。製造業模型的顯著變數有工資、匯率及利率。而服務業模型則有工資、利率及研究發展經費為顯著變項。另各模型時間變數方面，僑外資、外資及服務業等模型的第6年虛擬變數具顯著效果。在月虛擬變數上，投資正相關的月份僑外資為6、7月及10至12月；僑資為7、8兩月；外資於5月後各月；製造業則為3月及5月後各月；服務業則為7、11及12月。又僑資及服務業兩模型中，4月均為負相關。至於經濟成長率、每人國內生產毛額及政黨比率等不顯著變項，表示均非僑外商投資所關注的因素。 / Taiwan’s saucer-shallow economic scale and scarce natural resources make capital formation very difficult. Nevertheless, capital formation, especially accumulation of fixed investment, is essential to economic development. Among various sources of capital formation, foreign direct investment imposes least pressure on the balance of payments and inflation, introduces innovative technology and management skills, and hence contributes most significantly to sustainable industrial development and the realization of business management ideals. Taiwan ranks among the four newly-industrialized Asian tigers. Among the funding sources that have promoted Taiwan’s economic growth over the years, direct investment from overseas Chinese and foreigners plays an indispensable part. In recent years, however, even though nominal interest rates have continuously fallen, at times even to the level of negative real interest rates, investment momentum still appeared weakened. Based on this observation, this study tries to understand what drives decisions to invest in Taiwan by focusing on overseas Chinese and foreign investors who are highly investment sensitive. The main purpose of the study is to discuss the determinants of overseas Chinese and foreign direct investment in Taiwan. This study applies the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Regression model to analyze the monthly time-series data during the period of 1995-2004. Determinants of direct investment are examined in five groups, i.e. overseas Chinese & foreign investment, overseas Chinese investment, foreign investment, the manufacturing sector, and the services sector. The result shows that wages, interest rates, world competitiveness, and the rotation of ruling parties are the most important factors for overseas Chinese & foreign investment, and foreign investment. Overseas Chinese investment is significantly affected by the crime rate and the rotation of ruling parties. For the manufacturing sector, wages, exchange rates and interest rates are important variables. Wages, interest rates and R&D spending significantly affect investment in the services sector. In terms of the time variables in each group, the sixth year dummy variable has a significant effect on overseas Chinese & foreign investment, foreign investment, and the services sector. With regard to monthly dummy variables, positively correlated to investment are June, July, and October to December for overseas Chinese & foreign investment; July and August for overseas Chinese investment; May to December for foreign investment; March, and May to December for the manufacturing sector; and July, November, and December for the services sector. In addition, April shows a negative correlation for both overseas Chinese investment and the services sector. Variables with insignificant effects, including economic growth rates, per capita GDP, and the congressional seats of political parties, are not among the concerns of overseas Chinese and foreign investors.

本文主要探討影響外資企業進入中國大陸外資企業獲利變動之因素，分析企業在大陸投資經營環境改變（1993年與1996年間），企業的獲利變動是否會受影響，進一步比較在不同外資來源與不同投資型態下，座落不同地區別與投資不同產業別其獲利變動及其決定因素有何不同 結果顯示，投資環境變遷對外商投資有影響，首先，大陸投資環境逐年改善，有利外商企業進行投資，但是仍須注意大陸內部的不穩定因素，如政治社會問題，不能只單純考慮經濟投資環境。且大陸外資政策逐漸進入調整階段，朝向與產業發展相結合的方向調整，廠商投資更應注意政策發展；其次，在影響外商企業獲利變動之決定因素方面，實證結果顯示，企業在設廠時的投資規模如果較大，顯然與賺取的利潤變動有正向相關之關係；另一方面，員工人數增加，獲利亦會增加。 就企業營運方面而言，根據實證結果顯示資金當地取得比例與企業的獲利變動呈現負相關，外商企業自大陸貸款取得資金比重愈高，其獲利反而愈不利，另外對外資企業之機器進口比例提高，對獲利變動有正面影響，亦即企業進口更多機器設備，對獲利是有幫助。另外筆者發現，員工報酬等級的變動，對獲利變動呈現明顯正相關。就企業成立時間長短對獲利變動影響而言，筆者研究發現，在大陸的外資企業，愈後進者愈能充分表現在搭便車效果，對企業獲利明顯有利。 / The goals of the thesis are researching the following： (i) Impact of investment environment and foreign investment policy changes in mainland China in recent years on foreign firms in mainland China； (ii) Determinant of Profitability change to foreign enterprises in Mainland China； (iii) Analysis determinant of different country firms, different industry firms, different entry modes and different locations of foreign firms in mainland China。 The project concludes the following： 1. The effort of liberalization and internationalization of Mainland China in recent years attracts the inflow of multinationals into Mainland China; with the entry into WTO the inflow will be further encouraged. 2. Foreign investment profitability affected by policies and environment of Mainland China, firms should be more cautious in evaluating their investments in Mainland China. 3. The scales and workers become larger and more, profits of firm will increase 4. More local finance loan rate decrease profits of firms, because cost of loan increase after 1993 5. Obtainment and keeping ability workers show well profits of firms and more efficient equipments do it, too. 6. Early entry firm will not get more profit than latter entry firms; profitability depends on competence of firms.