我國65歲以上的老年人口，於民國82年底達總人口比率7.1％，正式邁入聯合國世界衛生組織所稱之高齡化社會（7％以上）。根據行政院經濟建設委員會之推估，65歲以上的老年人口比例於97年將達總人口數之10.15％，而於116年達總人口數之20.04％，人口老化速度明顯高於歐美國家，未來人口年齡結構將更趨於高齡化。隨著我國老年人口成長，社會安全制度日益受到重視，提供老人經濟安全之適度保障將成為我國未來福利發展之新方向。 本研究根據世界銀行提出的「三層保障」之老年經濟安全保障制度架構為基礎，說明我國公務人員退休制度在老年經濟安全保障方案之定位，闡述有關第二層保障之職業退休金制度理論演變，以釐清公務人員退休金之屬性及正當性，以助於退休制度及其財務規劃的擬定，期使整套制度循著適當的理論脈絡而發展。基於對退休金重要性的認知，先進國家早已發展成熟的職業退休金制度，而我國公務人員退休制度係建制於民國32年，實施50餘年，雖歷經4次修正，由於退休金給付方式仍屬於恩給制，除造成財政上重大負擔外，也產生退休給與偏低等嚴重問題，相關機關自62年開始研究改革，經過22年研議規劃完成，自84年7月1日實施退休新制，其與舊制最大的差異，是將退休經費籌措方式，由政府編列預算支付之恩給制，改由政府與公務人員共同撥繳費用成立退撫基金之共同提撥制，其餘退休對象、退休年資、退休條件、核給退休金原則大致維持不變，而退休金給付方式，也維持著確定給付制。經分析新退休制度之主要內容，實施迄今8年餘，有關改進退撫經費籌措方式，減輕政府財政負擔；及提高退撫所得，加強安老卹孤之改革目標，均已獲致初步成效。然而現階段面臨之問題，是退休經費導致各級政府財政負擔增加，且依公務人員退休撫卹基金管理委員會委託基金精算結果也顯示基金將面臨財務危機。 本研究係分析新制退休金給付方式，全面採行確定提撥制，對解決基金現存財務危機之可行性，為便於瞭解，爰敘明確定提撥制與確定給付制之意涵與優、缺點，及我國採用此兩種制度之適例。茲因退休金給付方式之政策變革方案，影響層面甚廣，方案之可行性如何，必須審慎探討與分析，爰就制度變革方案可行性列舉幾項評估面向進行分析。 例如為解決基金財務問題，除必須從經濟上分析外，茲因制度變革方案，必須符合現時的政治生態，始能確保政策推行之成果，方案的周詳與否，關係到該方案能否被接受及未來能否順利執行。由於退休舊制恩給制時期，因退休經費籌措方式不當，同樣存在著財政負擔之問題及缺失，其能於84年7月改革成功推動新退休制度，在政治方面包括政黨、民意機關、相關主管機關、公務人員，甚至學者等等支持的因素，在現今新制推行後，為解決財政問題，而將退休金給付方式，全面改採確定提撥制，是否同樣具有政治上支持的可能性，自須審慎分析；此外，退休金政策之改變，直接受影響的便是公務人員之退休所得，在退休金採行確定提撥制後，是否仍能達成新制推行時所設定之提高退撫所得、加強安老卹孤改革目標，應為關鍵之所在，由於職業退休金理論中之維持適當生活，係本研究在規劃退休金制度時所考量的重點，因退休後的生活水準應能與退休前相當，乃是探討退休金制度的核心，爰列為評估面向。又世界各國實施公務員退休金制度之經驗，包括採行確定給付制與確定提撥制例證，及面臨困境或改革之趨勢，均能在我國制訂退休金政策時有所啟示，故亦列為評估面向。本研究依據上述重要項目進行整體性評估，針對現存政經環境及職業特性，歸納我國新制退休金採行確定給付制或確定提撥制之個別效益，深入檢討何種給付方式較能維持公務人員權益？及退休前之生活水準？藉以說明並支持可行方案，以作為方案選擇之參據。最後提出本研究之結論與研究發現，進而本於基金能否永續經營，將是制度得否存續的關鍵，減少財務潛在危機，應具有合理的制度設計與有效的經營管理之基本條件，爰研擬若干建議措施，以降低財政問題的嚴重性，俾確保基金日後退休給付之能力，保障參加基金人員之權益。 / Taiwan has officially joined the “aging society” as defined by the WHO (up to 7% of the senior citizen ratio) because senior citizens aged over 65 accounted for 7.1% as of December 31, 1993. The official forecast by the Council of Economic Planning & Development of the Executive Yuan (the Cabinet) indicates that the senior population age over 65 will hit 10.15% of the total population by 2008 and even up to 20.04％ by the year 2027. Taiwan significantly outpaces their European and American counterparts in terms of the ratio of aging citizens. The aging society problems will likely turn from bad to worse in the future. In turn, the social security system is receiving mounting awareness and attention. The efforts to provide sound financial standing, secured social systems and protection to senior citizens will represent the new orientation of future welfare development in Taiwan. The present study takes the “Three-Level Assurance” oriented senior citizen financial security system proposed by the World Bank as the very grounds to elucidate the positioning of the Public Servant System in the senior citizen financial security system, annotate the evolution pension system of the Second-level Assurance to clarify the attribute and justification of the pension granted to civil servants. The present study is intended to help draw up a retirement system and financial planning so that the entire system will develop toward appropriate and justified orientation. With awareness of the importance of pension, those advanced countries have developed sound and mature professional pension systems for quite some time already. In the Republic of China, the retirement system for civil servants was initiated in 1943 and has been updated four times during the subsequent half century. The pension has been granted as a sort of benefit, or a government favor. As a result, pension to civil servants has become a heavy financial burden to the government and has been illogically insufficient. In response, the competent authorities concerned began initiating research for a reform of the pension system in 1973 and completed the research program 22 years later. The new retirement system was officially put into place on July 1, 1995. Between the old and new retirement system, the greatest difference is that the pension fund is jointly contributed by both the government and civil servants themselves in the new system instead of being solely budgeted by the government as a sort of government favor in the old system. Except for this, the aspects of the target retirees, seniority requirements, prerequisites for retirement and the principles to grant pension largely remain unchanged. Pension is paid in an unchanged “Defined Benefit Plan”. Now, with the new system in enforcement for over eight years, the new system proves to have primarily attained the goals in improving the method of pension fund raising, easing up the government’s financial burden, providing added pension to retirees and better safeguarding the senior civil servants. The problems currently confronting the pension practice are largely the mounting financial burden to the government as incurred by the retirement expenses. Meanwhile, the actual calculation outcome consigned by the Pension Management Committee indicates that the Pension Fund is on the verge of financial difficulties. The present study is to analyze the terms of pension payment to determine the feasibility there-of and to solve the present financial problem by means of the “Defined Contribution Plan”. For better a understanding into the issues, the present study elucidates the connotation, strengths and weaknesses of the “Defined Contribution Plan” and “Defined Benefit Plan”, as well as the precedents in Taiwan in adopting such two systems. Where a reform in the policy of pension payments will create quite an extensive impact, the feasibility of the policies calls for prudent analysis to enumerate a few feasible alternatives before further analyses into a few aspects of the assessment. To solve the financial difficulties in the Pension Fund, for instance, other than the economic analyses, the reform of the system must live up to the current political ecology before it can ensure the effects expected through the enforcement. Whether or not the policies are detailed and comprehensive enough will determine whether or not the policies are acceptable and whether or not they can be put into successful enforcement without a ensuing problems. During the extended practice under the old system while pension was budgeted as a sort of government favor, the pension system led to a heavy financial burden and shortcomings on the government. The new pension system was successfully put into enforcement in July 1995, thanks to the unanimous support from the political parties, congress, competent authorities concerned, civil servants as well as scholars. Now, in an effort to solve the current financial problems under the new system, the pension will be paid under the “Defined Contribution Plan”. Will the present reform receive equal political support? It calls for well-advised analyses. Besides, in a change in the pension system, the top impact will be upon the pension income to civil servants. After the pension is under the “Defined Contribution Plan”, will civil servants receive added pension income and receive better security in their retired life? These will be the key issues under the present study. The core consideration should aim at the retired lifestyle, which should be equivalent to the pre-retirement one. The hands-on experiences in enforcing civil servant pension systems accumulated in other countries the world over, including precedents of their practices in adopting the “Defined Benefit Plan” and “Defined Contribution Plan” will function as the constructive examples in Taiwan’s policymaking process regarding pension systems, and will be, therefore, be covered in the assessment in the present study as well. The present study will launch an overall assessment on the aforementioned key issues. Aiming at the existent political and economic climate as well as the professional characteristics, the present study will generalize the individual effects and benefits under “Defined Benefit Plan” or “Defined Contribution Plan” under the new retirement system to find out the optimal terms of payment to assure maximum possible benefits to civil servants, safeguard the quality of their retired lifestyle to be equivalent to the pre-retirement lifestyle. The findings and conclusions yielded through the present study will function as handy reference materials for policymaking. By submitting the findings and conclusions so yielded, the study will help the policymakers draw up sound enforcement rules to ensure the sustained existence of the Pension Fund, alleviate the potential financial crises through reasonable design of systems and effective management as the very fundamentals. Further by offering constructive proposals, the study will help the competent authorities of the government solve the financial difficulties to ensure sustained sound competence of pension payments and to, in turn, safeguard the Pension Fund and the Fund’s beneficiaries.

我國勞工退休金制度自勞基法制定至今已滿20年，自實施後衍生的諸多問題即使其為勞資雙方持續不斷爭議焦點，由最早的雇主恩給制的設計，中間經過公積金制、社會保險附加年金制、個人帳戶制以及三軌制等諸多不同轉折。而影響退休金改制方向力量則包括了政治經濟社會外在環境轉變的推力以及政策中重要參與者即國家、資方以及勞工力量彼此間的角力狀況。 本研究將勞工退休金改制發展涵蓋之時間階段劃分為2個觀察點與3個觀察階段，2個時間點分別為1984年勞基法制定通過之時與2001年8月召開的經發會中勞資政三方針對退休金改制方向的角力。三個階段則分別為：第一階段自1984年台灣第一個勞工運動組織台灣勞工法律支援會的成立至1993年政治民主化時期開始為止，通稱為政治自由化時期。第二階段自1993年政治民主化時期開始至2000年民進黨贏得總統大選新政府上台為止。第三階段則是由民進黨上台執政至經發會的召開為止。 本研究目的在審視自1984年勞基法制定並訂定退休金相關規定開始至2000年政黨輪替後經發會召開在其中形成勞退金重要改制方向為止這段時間退休金改制發展狀況。而作為一政治經濟分析性質，重點則置於兩個主要部分：第一部分在於分析各不同時間階段中外在經濟環境因素如何來影響退休金改制方向形成。第二個主要部分則針對各個時間階段中實際政策角力場域中的重要參與者，包括政府官僚所代表的國家部門、企業力量以及勞工團體彼此互動情況加以檢視，進而分析退休金改制方向如何在其互動中形成及產生。 由國家本身在退休金政策中的自主性來看，本研究發現威權時期國家在政策決定上自主意志的貫徹相對來說是較為輕易的，但進入民主化時期後這種情況開始產生了重大的轉變，國家利益與個別利益團體之利益開始出現相互滲透的情況。甚者當國家部門彼此之間出現政策方向或價值爭議時，加上外部利益團體影響力的舉足輕重，國家自身自主性即開始變得難以釐清，作為一個制衡角色的功能也開始趨於削弱，而放任由參與勢力自行角力迴避本身決策者及守門員的角色。而勞資政角色間實力消長仍處於轉變之中，當可作為往後階段持續觀察的重點。

82年台灣已邁入「高齡化」的社會型態，到了96年底時老年人口占人口比例達10.2％。另根據台閩地區2007年簡易生命表台灣男性平均餘命為75.46歲，女性為81.72歲，平均78.38歲，因應台灣進入高齡化及少子女化社會，如何讓勞工安享在60歲以後平均有18多年無工作收入的老年生活，已成為當前最重要問題。 為落實老年照護制度，增進勞工退休權益，陸續完成了勞工退休金條例、國民年金法及勞工保險條例修法之工作，其中將於98年1月1日實施勞工保險老年給付年金制，考量勞工保險已實施50多年，許多資深勞工已符合或將符合老年給付條件，且國人多具「入袋為安」之傳統觀念，在兼顧勞工權益及制度穩定之原則下，採現制一次給付與年金制併行方式，賦予現有被保險人於退職時選擇請領現制或新制之權利。 藉由本研究的撰寫，針對勞工保險老年給付選制行為三大變數，模擬試算出各種組合變數下的理性選擇建議，讓即將辦理退休的勞工能夠更明確更瞭解兩種給付的不同，並做正確的選擇，以確保退休生活品質。 本研究建議增加勞工保險老年給付選制及國民年金給付條件，做為將來修法的參考。 / Abstract In 1993, Taiwan entered the state of aging society. By the end of 2007, the elderly population above the age of 65 years accounted for 10.2% of the total population. The 2007 life table of the Taiwan-Fukien Area gave the life expectancy of 75.46 years for males and 81.72 years for females, averaging 78.36 years for both sexes. How to assure the laborers to live happily in their old age for an average of 18 some more years after retirement without job and incomes in an aged and fewer-children society has become an important issue. To realize the care system for the elderly, and to improve the rights and interests of the laborers after retirement, work has been done to enact the Labor Pension Act and the National Pension Act, and amend the Labor Insurance Act. The Labor Insurance Old-Age Pension system will be implemented in January 2009. The Labor Insurance has been in operation for more than 50 years. Many elderly laborers are eligible to or about to be eligible to the old-age payment. In line with the traditional concept of “safer to have cash in pocket”, and taking in mind the rights and interests of the laborers and the stability of the system, the old-age pension system will have concurrently either the “one-time payment under the current system” and the “monthly pension” system in practice. The retirees will have the choice of either the current system or the new system. The present study uses three variables in the choice of the old-age pension system to simulate the ideal choice and make recommendations under various combinations of variables to help laborers about to retire correctly understand the pros and cons of the two different payment systems and thus to make correct choice, and to assure the quality of their retirement life. The study recommends that, for the future amendments of regulations, more alternative systems for choice for old-age payment and more conditions for the national pension system be made available. Key words: Labor Insurance, National Pension, Labor Pension Act, Labor Standards Act

近年來，由於醫學技術進步使世界各國人民帄均壽命延長，加上通貨膨脹的影響，使得老年人在退休時是否擁有充足的財富來因應生活支出成為退休規劃中的重要議題。而由於年金兩難(Annuity Puzzle)的問題，個人積蓄在退休時點就立即用於購買年金保險是否為一個好的退休規劃仍有待考慮。故本文中提出遞延購買年金策略，退休人可考慮進行自我資產配置一段期間後再年金化，並進一步分析資產配置期間長度改變或消費水準改變時的影響。 本文為退休者建立兩種效用函數，第一種為未來單一時點之效用、第二種為多期折現之加總效用，並分別探討由各效用求出的退休後最適資產配置。本文並參考Lee, Yung-Tsung (2009)推導出兩效用函數之理論值，以取代模擬值，並利用格子點分析縮小求解的範圍。 第一種效用關注於每一給定的未來時點上，我們可用於推估最佳年金化時點及其資產配置。由類似mean-variance的形式組成此效用函數，並考慮隨年紀增長而提高風險趨避程度。令最適投資之效用與一完全購買年金者之帳戶價值於各個時點上相比，便可決定何時為最佳年金化時點。我們並分析不同風險態度的退休者的結果，越風險趨避者越適宜較早年金化。 第二種效用則先決定資產配置計畫的長度，所求得之最適投資將考慮到計畫過程中的要求，而非只有最後一點的目標。我們將分析資產配置計畫過程中、不同計畫長度下，以及不同消費水準時最適投資比例的變化。 兩種效用函數下皆有採用Regular Rebalance及Multiple Period Rebalance的投資策略。Multiple Period Rebalance並未明顯帶來更好的效用，因此選擇以Regular Rebalance進行各項參數敏感度的格子點分析。 / When people retire, purchasing the annuity insurances using their retirement fund is one way against the longevity risk. However, it has some shortcoming; the annual payment may be insufficient for daily life consumption, can’t be adjusted for any urgent need (liquidity risk), and moreover, if the policyholders unfortunately pass away early, they couldn’t leave the rest policy account value as bequest. Under these considerations, many people won’t purchase the annuity insurances right away at retirement; they can do their consumption choices and do asset allocation at the mean time like as ―self-annuitization‖(the ―investment/consumption plan‖, 2006, Gerrard, Haberman and Vigna), and then convert their portfolios into annuity pension on an adequate moment post-retirement to solve the longevity problem. This paper constructs two kinds of retiree’s utility functions according a time-series of safety level. The first one focuses on one future timing, and we use it to investigate the adequate annuitization timing. The more risk taker a retiree is, the later he annuitizes. The second one summarizes the utilities each timing during a period after retirement, and we use it to analysis the sensitivities for the optimal asset allocation. Both of the two analyses are discussed under two investment strategies, regular rebalance and multiple-period rebalance.

本文分析現在的退休金制度和老年經濟安全保障的情形，同時討論家庭所得來源的趨勢，並推估未來退休後所需的費用。最後提供予個人儘早為自己做一些規劃與準備的建議。老年經濟安全保障在台灣地區因為各項因素的影響，顯得十分不足，經由收集資料並分析比較後，以15～64歲的人口來看老年經濟安全三層的保障情況，其中佔4％的軍公教人員有較完整的退休保障制度；佔50％的勞工人口，在第一層的保障中，於2000年平均勞保老年給付每人658,273元。又因為制度未臻完善，第二層之保障只有1～2％的人可以領到退休金。此外，佔有7％的農民在年滿65歲之後，只有不完整的第一層保障，即每月3,000元的老農津貼可領。其他39％的人是未參加公保、勞保或農保等任一項社會保險的。也就是有95％的人是需要儘早規劃退休後的經濟準備。面對大環境中的財政赤字及個人平均壽命的增長，子女親朋經濟支援的減少等等因素，更顯得及早規劃老年經濟安全的迫切性。 關鍵詞：老年經濟安全保障、退休金、國民年金、生活費用推估、所得替代率 / This study focused on investigation and evaluation of the pension system and economic security program in Taiwan. For indviduals, the trend on home income and the required expense for the future retirement were discussed and estimated. Becaurs of several factors, the program of old-age economic security in Taiwan area seems not sound. For this topic, the work force, between 15 and 64 ears old, are taken into account, There are three tiers for the program of old-age economic security, which anr social security and benefit, pension, and individual saving. One of hte finding was that public officials, about four percent of the work force, benefit much more form the pension system and old-age economic security program. The labores, about 50 percent of the work force, have the everage amount NT$658,273 for the 1^st-tier social security and benefit in 2000. Due to the unsound system and the qualiication problem, less than two percent of the laborers can obtain the 2^nd-tier pension. Beside, farmers, about seven percent of the work force, can obtain the 1^st-tier social security and benefit until they are 65 years old or more. Those qualified farmers can obtain NT$3,000 each month. Other individuals are not enrolled in any social insurance and pension program. The public welfare system can hardly cover the economic needs for the aged individuals. Therefore, 95 percent of the work force should plan their own retirement welfare programs in advance to secure thir economic safety. Key words: Old-age Economic Security, Pension, Citizen Beneficiary, Living Expensee Estimate, income replacement rate

退休金計畫依給付方式的設計，可以分為兩大體系：確定給付退休金計畫與確定提撥退休金計畫。無論是公共退休金計畫或是企業退休金計畫，最初實行時多採用確定給付的方式來實施。但隨著經濟環境的變遷，部份的國家與企業雇主，已開始傾向確定提撥方式的採用。本論文有鑑於退休金的改革潮流，欲探討確定提撥退休金計畫的實施回顧與給付的精算分析。 本論文分為四個主要部分，分別為：(1)確定提撥計畫的理論架構回顧；(2)主要國家制度的分析；(3)精算模型的建立與精算假設的分析；與(4)精算假設的給定與給付水準的模擬分析。在主要國家制度的回顧上，公共退休金計畫方面以新加坡「中央公積金制」與智利「公共退休金私有化」為探討的對象；在企業退休金計畫方面則以美國為討論對象。實證分析部分，則是先建立確定提撥退休金精算模型，再撰寫模擬程式介面，並以我國1998年「勞工退休金條例」草案為模擬對象，給定精算假設進行模擬，最後分析精算假設與模擬給付間的關係。 以台灣「勞工退休金條例」草案為例進行分析，其實證部分分為兩部分，先前給定平準的預定利率假設，而其他薪資成長率、通貨膨脹率、提撥率、開始工作提撥年齡、退休年齡、退休後各年存活率則根據台灣目前的經濟、就業環境給定；模擬結果發現， 6％合併提撥率無法達到模擬所給定50％-60％的退休後給付所得替代率；若將合併提撥率提高至12％以上，25歲開始工作65歲退休者才能累積足以支應適足所得替代率50％-60％的給付。 第二個模擬部份為給定利率時間序列的情境假設，在此給定簡單的七種利率情境假設，其他精算假設則同樣根據台灣的經濟環境給定之。模擬結果發現，若合併提撥率為9％，基金提撥累積期間40年，給付所得替代率對利率的變動敏感性高，只有在累積期間利率穩定成長的情形下，才能累積足夠的退休金，因此，可以表示9％的合併提撥率在其他非樂觀的利率情境假設下，無法達到50％-60的給付所得替代率。 略 / Due to population aging, the countries that operated their Social Security System on pay-as-you-go financial method have begun to encounter the solvency risk due to the growing financial burden. Since the defined contribution (DC) scheme is considered as a fully funded financial system, it could be one of the solutions to avert the upcoming financial crisis. Hence our study is motivated to investigate the current development of the DC scheme and scrutinize its financial adequacy on providing the retirement benefits to its plan participants. First, the features of current public pension programs in the form of the DC plan are surveyed and their progress is reviewed in Chapter 2. Practical applications applying the DC scheme in private sector are also compared and studied in Chapter 3. Secondly, the actuarial models of the proposed DC scheme are built to investigate the adequacy of the retirement benefits in Chapter 4. Computer codes that can be used to simulate the income-replacement ratios by giving the actuarial assumptions are programmed. Based on this approach, the relationship between income-replacement ratios and the actuarial assumptions (i.e., the interest rate, the salary increase and the inflation rate) can be obtained. In Chapter 5, sensitivity analyses of the benefit adequacy through computer simulations incorporating possible scenarios are performed. The recent proposal of reforming Taiwan Employee Retirement Income Security Act (TERISA) is investigated. An explicit actuarial model closely following this proposal is built to study its impact on the retirement benefits. Finally the empirical results based on this study are summarized. Based on the scenarios under the current economic perspectives, we found the contribution rate at 6% can not attain the income-replacement ratio at 50%. Only over certain optimal interest rates, the retiree can receive the projected income-replacement ratio given the contribution rate at 9%. Based on the proposed draft in reforming the benefit scheme, the retirement benefits are not sufficient to achieve the income-replacement ratio at 50% unless the contribution rates increase to 12%.

本文採用LIBOR市場利率模型評價確定提撥制退休金計畫所附之收益率保證，此保證收益率連結至隨機LIBOR市場利率，在相關的文獻上(特別在隨機利率方面)，尚未有相關的研究。本文同時考慮兩種保證型態：到期日保證與多期保證，運用平賭過程理論，在延伸之LIBOR市場利率模型(ELMM)下推導此兩種保證的理論公式解。相較於其他利率模型或HJM模型，採用ELMM所推得之評價公式更適合於實務運用。為供實務運用，文中並探討如何進行參數校準，亦進行蒙地卡羅模擬以驗證模型理論解的準確性。 / We derive the pricing formulas for the guarantees embedded in defined contribution (DC) pension plans with the guaranteed minimum rate of return set relative to a LIBOR interest rate. The guaranteed rate associated with a stochastic LIBOR interest rate has not yet been studied in the relevant literature, particularly in the presence of stochastic interest rates. An extended LIBOR market model (LMM) is employed to price the interest rate guarantees embedded in DC pension plans under maturity and multi-period guarantees. The pricing formulas derived under the extended LMM are more tractable and feasible for practice than those derived under the instantaneous short rate models or the HJM model. Calibration procedures are also discussed for practical implementation. Monte Carlo simulation is provided to evaluate the accuracy of the theoretical results.

世界各國人口結構持續改變，高齡化社會正逐漸成形，退休金制度的良窳已成為一國人口未來福利是否受到保障的最關鍵因素。各國政府勞退制度之改革最普遍的就是推動以「確定給付制」改為「確定提撥制」。我國勞工退休金政策亦於2005年7月正式實施勞工退休金新制，以「個人退休金專戶」為中心的「確定提撥制」逐漸取代「確定給付制」之勞退舊制。惟與其他國家最大不同是我國退休基金的管理與運用乃由政府統籌辦理，屬於集中管理模式；反觀先進國家勞工退休金其會員則可依個人風險承擔程度自由選擇投資不同類型退休基金，故自我國勞退新制實施以來，勞工是否傾向自行決定退休金運用方式就值得探討。然2008年金融海嘯發生，勞退基金首次發生虧損，勞工退休金開放自行選擇投資組合是否依然可行？ 本研究之研究方法包括文獻分析法，藉由世界主要國家退休金制度的變革，了解國際間對於勞工自行選擇退休金運用方式之概況與趨勢發展，並比較主要各國運用方式，發現目前國際間採用確定提撥制的國家已多數可由勞工自行選擇退休基金方案；另外採行問卷調查，針對全國總工會之勞工代表與幹部以問卷方式調查其對勞工退休基金運用的看法，發現大部分工會代表在金融海嘯前後均傾向選擇自選，而在教育程度與年齡等變項發現達到顯著性之水準。爰依本研究結論，建議勞工主管單位，應研擬逐步開放的方式推行，且儘速使勞工依個人風險承擔程度，自由選擇不同類型退休基金，並適時給予所需之教育訓練。 / The structure of the world population continues to change; an aging society is gradually taking shape. The virtue of the pension system has become the most critical factor in the future welfare of a country's population. The most of the world‘s governments labor pension system of reform is to promote the "defined benefit" to "defined contribution" system. The new labor pension policy in Taiwan was implemented in July 2005. The individual pension accounts "defined benefit" system was gradually replaced by "defined contribution". But the Taiwan's pension fund management belonging to the centralized management model; which was different with the other countries. On the other hand, other advanced countries, labor pension of its members can choose to invest in different types of pension funds according to personal risk degree of freedom. So the Taiwan’s labor whether the tendency to decide pension use since the implementation of the new labor fun system is worth exploring. In this study, literature analysis was used. We find the international workers to choose the pension use of profiles and the trends by reviewing change of the world's major national pension system. We also found that using defined contribution system in the world the pension fund program was chosen freely by the majority workers. In addition, by using the questionnaire survey of labor representatives and cadres of the China Federation of Trade Unions, we found that the majority of union representatives tend to select the optional before and after the financial tsunami. The level of education and age variables to reach a significant level. In accordance with these conclusions, we recommended that the labor unit in charge opening the way to implement should be developed gradually. To bear the degree of labor as soon as possible according to individual risk, freedom to choose different types of pension funds, and timely given the required training.

本研究以2005年勞退新制為例，探討資遣費對資遣率之影響。在勞退新制實施之後，資遣費的給付額度不僅大幅減少，還多了上限，因此，基於資遣費往往被視為雇主所直接面對的資遣成本，資遣率是否會受到勞退新制中資遣費改變的影響，為本研究欲探討分析的議題。本研究資料來源為人力運用擬-追蹤調查資料庫，研究方法使用差異中之差異法(difference in differences)，並依據員工是否適用於勞基法，將樣本劃分為實驗組與對照組進行分析。實證結果顯示，資遣費對於資遣率並無顯著的影響力，因此政府若希望資遣費制度能有預防雇主任意資遣員工的效果，則現行的資遣費制度可能無法達到此目標，而未來是否需要針對資遣費進行修法仍有討論空間。 / This study uses the 2005 Labor Pension Act (LPA) in Taiwan as the quasi-experiment to analyze the impact of severance pay on the layoff rate. After implementation of LPA, severance pay is reduced significantly and constrained by an upper boundary. Since severance pay is often considered as the firing cost, whether the layoff rate is affected by the largely reduced severance pay is what this study expects to analyze. Data used in this study are drawn from the Manpower Utility Quasi – Longitudinal Survey (MUQLS). In order to apply the difference in differences method, the observations are divided into the treatment group and the reference group according to the coverage of the Labor Standards Act (LSA). The empirical results suggest that severance pay has no significant impact on the layoff rate. Therefore, if severance pay is expected to prevent the arbitrary layoff, the current severance pay system might not achieve this goal and some modifications of this system might be necessary.

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration