University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration

退休金的會計處理原本即具複雜性，加上最近退休金制度的變革，形成退休金會計獨特且豐富的情境背景，提供了許多的研究機會。本論文包含三個與退休金會計相關之議題；其中第一個議題是「勞工退休金新制之股價效應」；第二個議題是「退休金精算假設選用之誘因」；第三個議題是「退休金精算假設選用之價值攸關性」。三個議題均以效率市場假說為基礎，針對勞工退休金新制之實施與退休金精算假設之選用，分別深入探討其與股價之關聯性。 首先，本論文第一個議題探討勞退新制之股價效應。事件日股票報酬與公司特質的關聯分析，雖然部分的實證結果不顯著，然而部分的證據顯示，勞退新制公布實施時，公司股票報酬與退休金提撥不足程度、員工平均服務年資、退休金提撥率、退休金成率等公司特質具有關聯性，隱含資本市場在某種程度上，似乎可以依據勞退新制對公司不同之衝擊程度，反映於公司股票報酬。 其次，本論文第二個議題探討退休金精算假設選用之誘因。實證的結果顯示，我國上市上櫃公司精算假設選用的橫斷面差異，可能源於債務契約、提撥不足之成本以及損益平穩化等誘因。最後，本論文第三個議題探討退休金精算假設選用之價值攸關性。實證結果顯示，退休金精算假設選用具價值攸關性，投資人對公司選用精算假設保守程度有所評價，對於裁量性 (隱藏的) 預計給付義務亦有所反映，似乎適當地根據精算假設選用對於預計給付義務之影響幅度來調整對公司之評價，隱含資本市場並未功能性固著於報導的退休金義務。 / There are three essays in this dissertation. The first essay examines the impact on equity prices of the Promulgation of Labor Pension Act. Evidence reported in the paper shows that negative abnormal returns are most pronounced for firms with large underfunded level of pension plan, firms with little average years of employment, firms with low contribution ratio, and firms with low pension cost ratio. The second essay explains the cross-sectional variation in firms’ selected actuarial assumptions (rate of increase in compensation and discount rate) used to measure the projected benefit obligation (PBO). Evidence shows that firms with relatively larger debt ratio, larger underfunded level of pension plan, and larger decline in earnings tend to select more aggressive (obligation-reducing) estimation parameters. The last essay studies the association between actuarial assumptions and firm value. The results indicate that firm value is lower, conditional on the reported PBO, for firms that use higher discount rates and lower rate of increase in compensation. This is consistent with investors seeing through managers’ opportunistic choices of obligation reducing assumptions. The evidence suggests that the stock market does not fixate on reported PBO numbers, but properly appreciates the value relevance of the discretionary component of the PBO.

本文乃企圖建立一種具有層次性的觀察方法，來瞭解公務人員老年經濟安全保障制度的歷史源由與價值。先由宏觀面著手，對西方老年經濟安全保障制度的之歷史源流及其基本理念解釋理論進行文獻探討；再將討論範圍限縮於世界銀行對於當今世界各國年金制度所提出問題與建議的理想模型；最後再將研究聚焦於我國公務人員老年經濟安全保障制度的歷史沿革、制度內涵、遭遇困境與改革策略的價值取捨，並經由對制度情境的模擬，將現制的問題與對備選方案的疑慮具體呈現出來。 在公務人員老年經濟安全保障制度財務制度分類當中，最為關鍵者即為給付類型之分類。在確定給付制下，公務人員與政府共同負擔財源責任，但財務風險全由政府承擔，其基本價值為對公務人員的承諾，其施行原則乃建立在政府之公共政策目的(包括人事與社會)；至於在確定提撥制下，提撥財源之責任可能由公務人員個人或可與政府共同負擔，但財務風險則全由公務人員個人承擔，是以，其基本價值在於財務資源的運作效率，其運作原則即建立在市場經濟原則上。 我國公務人員退休制度及公保制度所面臨的問題，就是在給付確定的情形下，現行公務人員退撫基金與公保提撥費率的精算假設獲利率分別為10%及6%，就目前之經濟情勢而言，應為高估，相對地，現行費率則為低估。為探求現行公務人員老年經濟安全保障制度對於公務人員之權利義務關係與保障程度之實況，爰採用情境模擬法，模擬其退休經濟保障及提撥累計之間的關係，及其制度安排之特點與正負功能。 由本文之研究結論分析，並參照世界銀行之年金三柱模式，在我國國民年金制度尚未實施之前，公保養老給付則負有給與退休公務人員最基本經濟所需之責任，應定位為第一柱基礎年金，其給付應維持確定給付制，以社會保險方式辦理尚屬適當。至於公務人員退休制度部分，則屬於第二柱職業年金，而應採確定提撥制。 就制度之改革方式，則建議下列兩種不同之改革途徑 一、修正途徑。在維持確定給付制之前題下，採取開源及結流兩方面之手段： (一)在開源方面，應提高基金或準備金投資效率外，並對現行法定提撥費率上限應予修正提高。 (二)在節流方面，則應配合檢討現行退休金給付之適當性，修正退休要件與給與方式，即從其月退休金給付額度標準及其年齡條件兩方面著手。 (三)一次退休金之所得替代率偏低，宜將之適用對象予以限縮，作為針對彈性提前退休人員之退休金給付方式。 (四)至於公保養老給付，則應予年金化，並至少應提供所得替代率10%之養老給付。 二、改制途徑。若將公務人員老年經濟安全保障制度必須改採行確定提撥制，本文仍建議不宜將投資風險全部轉移給公務人員個人承擔，而仍應搭配確定給付制以保障基本之退休生活水準。

本研究探討長期投資人之最適資產配置問題，並著重於通貨膨脹風險之分析。第一部份討論確定提撥退休金制度下，機構投資人或高所得自然人如何擬定投資策略規避通貨膨脹風險，達到極大化期末財富效用期望值。此研究擴展Battocchio與Menoncin (2004)所建構資產模型，不僅探討市場風險，亦考量通貨膨脹不確定性與基金費用誘因、下方風險保護兩機制，研究對資產配置行為之影響，並依動態規劃方法求得投資策略公式解。第二部份則強調下方風險之重要性，檢視在最低保證收益下，長期投資人跨期資產配置之財富管理議題，並回顧Deelstra et al.(2003)之模型架構，依平賭方法求得投資策略公式解，研究結果顯示基金投資策略可表示為最適CRRA(γ,T)型態共同基金與最低收益避險之組合。另一方面，如何估計通貨膨脹風險亦為本文強調之重點。Campbell和Viceira (2001)首次納入通貨膨脹風險並探討跨期投資議題，結論市場缺乏通貨膨脹連動投資標的時，投資人將減碼長期債持有比例。Brennan和Xia (2002)假設通貨膨脹率服從Ornstein-Uhlenbeck過程，結論投資人之避險需求隨持有債券到期日與投資期限改變。但以上結論未將通貨膨脹學習機制納入模型，因此，在第三部份提出依學習機制修正之投資策略可顯著增加財富效用，並分析在不同參數設定下，學習機制對於期末財富效用之影響。 / In this study, we study three essays of asset allocation problem for long term investors, which means that in this discourse we emphasis the importance of inflation risk. In the first topic, we derive the dynamic optimal investment strategy of the defined contribution pension schemes which include two mechanisms of partial floor protection and incentive fees and their benchmarks. We find investors should hold high proportion of stock index fund to hedge the inflation risk; moreover, the ratio of incentive fees to the setting of benchmark will change the optimal investment trend of underlying assets. In the second topic, we introduce the optimal investment portfolio with minimum guarantees and show that the fund manager should adjust the optimal weights of underlying assets with the ratio of the guarantee fund's value to the value of fund. Finally, this work focuses on how to precisely predict the dynamics of inflation rate. We apply learning method to adjust the prediction of inflation process and we use numerical analysis to study the effect of learning mechanism under different parameter setting.

勞動基準法、勞工退休金條例課予雇主於成就一定要件下，有給付勞工退休金、資遣費之責，以保護照顧勞工。然時至今日，為因應全球化趨勢，經營者透過交互協力的經營網絡，使人事調動亦趨於頻繁，產生多法人格經營組織形態下的調職。惟勞工退休金與資遣費係本於勞動契約之請求，故其求償對象為「勞動契約上雇主」，當事人一方(事業單位)改變，工作年資重新計算，將衍生應以誰承擔雇主責任及工作年資併計、平均工資計算等債權範圍問題。甚或雇主透過關係企業交叉控制，濫用公司法人格、掏空資產，導致關廠歇業，勞工之債權求償無門。 勞動基準法各條文所規範之雇主(責任主體)，須斟酌各該法條的立法意旨與目的予以審酌認定，且未包含多重勞動關係之處理。我國公司法第154條第2項規定引進揭穿公司面紗原則，惟勞工如係因關係企業、家族企業調動，導致工作年資中斷或勞動條件不利益變更，損及其權益，尚難逕以該法條要求控制股東負清償之責，以擴張雇主責任。又104年2月4日修正公布勞動基準法第28條規定，提升退休金與資遣費之受償順位，並納入墊償，該條文對勞動債權之保護及施行以來之適用問題，亦為本文關切之重點。 　　本文將從雇主範圍、跨法人格企業調動、經營主體消滅等變動因素下，探討勞工退休金及資遣費之求償對象、求償範圍及債權保護等，並透過檢視現行勞動法制、公司法關係企業債權人保護之規定，介紹美國「揭穿公司面紗原則」、日本「法人格否認理論」、我國實務發展「實體同一性」概念等，試圖描繪擴充退休金與資遣費求償與保護法制之輪廓，並對於擴張勞工退休金與資遣費追償對象之可能，提出相關建議以供參考。

確定給付制的退休金計畫，退休金成本提存的適當與否，關係到基金長期的財務健全及未來員工權益的保障，而我國公務人員退撫基金關係到廣大公務人員的權益，也影響到政府的財政支出，所以對公務人員退撫基金更有精算的必要，以確保提撥率之適當而不至於對政府財政增加額外負擔。 本論文從人口面的角度出發，以我國公務人員退休撫卹基金為實證分析之研究對象，探討人口面的假設對於公務人員退撫基金提撥率，未來各項給付支出的影響，包括從經驗資料中取樣，探討大小不同的樣本建立之服職表，於計算提撥率的差異，並利用混成模型建立新進成員假設，以開放團體模擬基金成員結構，在某些固定假設之下，模擬未來五十年的基金資產與現金流量情況。 根據本研究結果指出，利用不同取樣所建構的服職表，計算出之提撥率差異甚大，顯示小型的退休金計畫並不適宜以自身的經驗資料作為精算評價的基礎。另外，以常態分佈的混成模型建立公務人員新進假設，在人數設限成員群體的假設下作開放團體模擬的結果，顯示公務人員年齡結構在未來有逐漸老化的趨勢，在本文所採的假設下，基金資產將先增後減而於民國121年破產。在現行的公務人員退休撫卹制度下，要避免基金破產之情況發生，唯有提高提撥率、提高基金資產報酬率、或壓低薪資成長率。 第一章 緒論 第一節 研究動機與目的 第二節 研究範圍與限制 第三節 研究架構與內容 第二章 退休金精算考慮之因素 第一節 退休基金精算系統的概念及文獻回顧 第二節 精算假設 第三節 精算成本法 第三章 基金成員結構分析的理論基礎 第一節 服職表的編製 壹、 模型建立 貳、 修勻方法 參、 程式演算過程 第二節 混成參數模型的建構 第三節 基金成員新進參數模型的建立 第四節 基金成員新進、脫退隨機過程 第四章 公務人員退撫基金精算模擬 第一節 公務人員退撫基金給付規定 第二節 公務人員退撫基金精算評價系統簡介 第三節 公務人員退撫基金精算評價之實證 壹、 取樣差異對於提撥率的影響 貳、 開放團體模擬基金成員結構和財務預估 第五章 結論與建議 第一節 結論 第二節 對後續研究的建議 附錄A：估計粗脫率之程式 附錄B：修勻程式(Whittaker法) 附錄C：估計常態混成模型參數之程式 附錄D：公務人員新進成員年齡、職等分佈模擬之程式 附錄E-1：服職表1 附錄E-2：服職表2 附錄E-3：服職表3 附錄E-4：服職表4 附錄E-5：服職表5 附錄E-6：服職表6 附錄E-7：服職表7 / The adequacy of the plan contribution for a defined benefit pension scheme is directly related to its financial soundness and the plan member’s benefits. Due to uncertainty of the plan’s turnover, the service table plays an important role in actuarial valuation and cash flow projection. In this study, Taiwan public employees retirement system is studied to monitor the solvency issue due to bias in selecting the service tables. Tai-PERS is designed to provide retirement and ancillary benefits to 271,215 government employees. Its financial soundness is especially vital to the government annual balance. The plan contribution and projected cash flows of Tai-PERS are investigated using various sampling results. The distribution of the new entrants is assumed to follow the mixture model to describe the recruiting results. Then dynamic simulations under the open group assumption are performed to predict the future fund assets and cash flows. The results show significant differences in employing various service tables. Hence selecting proper demographic assumptions is particular important in pension valuation. Under our approach, the workforce of Tai-PERS is aging given the current plan population. Based on the given scenario, the projected plan assets increase and then decrease to be insolvent in 2032. Some interesting results are also discussed.

退休金是退休人未來生活的依靠，確保在退休後能得到適足的退休給付，政府在退休金上實施保證收益制度，此制度為最低保證利率與投資報酬率連結。本文探討退休金給付標準為確定提撥制，當退休金的投資報酬率是根據其連結之股價指數的表現來計算時，股價指數報酬率的模型假設為馬可夫調控跳躍過程模型，考慮市場狀態與布朗運動項、跳躍項的跳躍頻率相關，即為Elliot et al. (2007) 的模型特例。使用1999年至2012年的道瓊工業指數與S&P 500指數的股價指數對數報酬率作為研究資料，採用EM演算法估計參數及SEM演算法估計參數共變異數矩陣。透過概似比檢定說明馬可夫調控跳躍過程模型比狀態轉換模型、跳躍風險下狀態轉換模型更適合描述股價指數報酬率變動情形，也驗證馬可夫調控跳躍過程模型具有描述報酬率不對稱、高狹峰及波動叢聚的特性。最後，假設最低保證利率為固定下，利用Esscher轉換法計算不同模型下型I保證之確定提撥制退休金的評價公式，從公式中可看出受雇人提領的退休金價值可分為政府補助與個人帳戶擁有之退休金兩部分。以執行敏感度分析探討估計參數對於馬可夫調控跳躍過程模型評價公式的影響，而型II保證之確定提撥制退休金的價值則以蒙地卡羅法模擬並探討其敏感度分析結果。 / Pension plan make people a guarantee life in their retirement. In order to ensure the appropriate amount of pension plan, government guarantees associated with pension plan which ties minimum rate of return guarantees and underlying asset rate of return. In this paper, we discussed the pension plan with defined contribution (DC). When the return of asset is based on the stock indices, the return model was set on the assumption that markov-modulated jump diffusion model (MMJDM) could the Brownian motion term and jump rate be both related to market states. This model is the specific case of Elliot et al. (2007) offering. The sample observations is Dow-Jones industrial average and S&P 500 index from 1999 to 2012 by logarithm return of the stock indices. We estimated the parameters by the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm and calculated the covariance matrix of the estimates by supplemented EM (SEM) algorithm. Through the likelihood ratio test (LRT), the data fitted the MMJDM better than other models. The empirical evidence indicated that the MMJDM could describe the asset return for asymmetric, leptokurtic, volatility clustering particularly. Finally, we derived different model's valuation formula for DC pension plan with type-I guarantee by Esscher transformation under rate of return guarantees is constant. From the formula, the value of the pension plan could divide into two segment: government supplement and employees deposit made pension to their personal bank account. And then, we done sensitivity analysis through the MMJDM valuation formula. We used Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the valuation of DC pension plan with type-II guarantee and discussed it from sensitivity analysis.

本文係在我國勞退新制改以個人帳戶制及年金保險制中併行下，針對其中年金保險制度之爭議、規範缺失做一整理研究，並參酌美國ERISA對於企業退休計畫之相關法制提出相關建議。 自立法機關確定勞退新制將揚棄過去確定給付制之設計，改以確定提撥制作為企業退休制度之主軸起，勞動法學者即針對確定提撥制對勞工之保障不足，新舊制轉換等爭議提出諸多質疑與討論，但對於其中年金保險制之規劃多僅止於條列介紹而未多加著墨。本研究以敘述性、回顧性之方式將我國與美國之退休金制度作歸納探討，針對目前年金保險制中較有疑義之部分，以比較法之方式進一步檢討，最後提出若干建議。 本研究共分為四個部分，第一部份為我國勞工退休制度之變革。針對我國由確定給付制發展為確定提撥制之風險轉換作一分析，次介紹新制之規範內容。第二部分以美國ERISA法案為中心，對美國企業退休計畫之發展及基本實質規範進一步整理探討，以為後續我國年金保險規範分析之參考。第三部份探討我國企業年金保險之法制爭議，以現行之勞工退休金條例年金保險實施辦法及企業年金保險保單示範條款為基礎，剖析其與保險法及相關子法間之互動。並針對其中有關最低保證收益、非退休給付及退休金運用管理人之忠誠義務等議題，參酌美國之規定進行深入探討。第四部份為結論及相關立法建議。 / This thesis analyzes and examines various issues regarding the anuuity insurance scheme under the modified Taiwan Labor Pension Act (hereinafter the “Act”), which together with the individual account scheme forms the keynote of the retirement scheme under the Act. Moreover, this thesis also provides several suggestions on the Act and relevant regulations with special reference to the Employment Retirement Income Security Act of 1974. Beginning with the announcement that the prevailing defined benefit retirement program previously in effect under the Act would be discarded and replaced by a new retirement program adopting the spirit of the defined contribution program, scholars specializing in labor law ceaselessly questioned and discussed the inherent deficiency of the proposed defined contribution program as well as various issues regarding transitional measures. Most articles pertaining to the newly presented annuity insurance scheme, however, merely introduced its operation mechanism and provided little commentary. This thesis descriptively and retrospectively studies the pension system of Taiwan and the United States and reviews the discrepancy and other issues in a comparative way. Finally, this thesis will provide several suggestions for relevant issues. This thesis is organized into four parts. First is the reformation of the labor retirement scheme in Taiwan. This section begins with a risk analysis between a defined benefit and defined contribution program and further elaborates on the related content of the Act. The second part introduces the development of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) in the U.S. and discusses the fundamental regulations of the plan. The third portion of this thesis probes into the legal issues arising from the current annuity insurance scheme, mainly the Enforcement Rules of the Annuity Insurance Scheme under the Labor Pension Act and the Example of the Annuity Insurance Clauses, both being promulgated by the Financial Supervisory Commission, Executive Yuan, and how those regulations coordinate with the Insurance Law and its ancillary regulations. Issues arising from guaranteed minimum returns, non-retirement benefits and fiduciary duty were analyzed through comparative research with special reference to the similar provisions under ERISA. The final portion of this thesis contains concluding statements on the above analyses and offers several suggestions with respect to the current regulations of the annuity insurance scheme.

近年來海峽兩岸利率持續走低，已經對壽險公司之財務產生負面影響，故銷售固定利率保險商品之壽險業者，其資金運用報酬與業務成本間之利差損現象日益擴增，為避免財務負擔日增而影響其清償能力，市場趨勢乃轉向能將風險大部分轉移給保單持有人並讓其分享大部分投資利得之投資型保險商品。本文就海峽兩岸投資型保險商品，從法規架構、監理體系、商品種類內容、市場行銷等方面加以詳細比較分析，並以1988-1994年英國銷售投資型保險商品所發生之退休金不當銷售弊案(mis-selling scandal)為借鏡，進而歸納出所面臨之各種問題，再針對此等問題提出可能解決之道，作為兩岸發展投資型保險之參考。 關鍵字：投資型保險、投資連結保險、變額保險、指數連結保險、指數連結年金、萬能壽險、變額萬能保險、分紅保險、利率風險、不當銷售、英國退休金不當銷售弊案、保險監理、保險法沿革。 / With the continued decline in interest rates having an adverse impact on Taiwan and Mainland life insurance companies' balance sheets, the insurance companies that sell the traditional guaranteed products have experienced the increasing interest loss resulted from the gap of their investment returns and operation costs. To avoid the companies from insolvency crisis arising out of the increasing financial burden, there is a trend, recently in both Taiwan and Mainland markets, that the insurance business focus has been averted from the traditional products toward investment-linked products that transfer most risk to policyholders and enable them to share in most investment gains. This paper compares the investment-linked insurance between Taiwan and Mainland markets in the viewpoints of the legal structure, regulation systems, variety of products and marketing of investment -linked products. This paper also analyses the famous U.K. mis-selling scandal in 1988-1994, and tries to make this scandal into a valuable lesson to both markets. After listing the issues and problems which are encountered by the insurance companies, the suggestions for resolving such issues and problems are submitted as the conclusion of this paper. Key Words: Investment-linked insurance, Variable insurance, Equity Index Insurance, Equity Index Annuity, Universal life insurance, Variable universal insurance, With-profit insurance. Risk of interest rate, Mis-selling, U.K. mis-selling scandal, Insurance regulation. History of insurance law