後冷戰時期的亞太區域安全事務趨於複雜，區域性國際組織日漸興起，其中「東協區域論壇」（ASEAN Regional Forum, ARF）主要作為亞太國家協商區域安全合作的重要機制。本篇論文主要介紹「東協區域論壇」之成立背景、過程，以及其運作之具體成就，進而分析其在亞太區域安全中所具備之功能與扮演之角色。 「東協區域論壇」成立於一九九四年，目前共有二十二個成員國。後冷戰時期亞太區域多邊主義形成，加上區域安全架構面臨重組，使得多邊安全對話機制之形成有其必要。「東協區域論壇」成立之基本宗旨是促使亞太國家針對政治及國防安全議題，培養建設性對話之習慣。「東協區域論壇」在推動區域安全合作機制上，分三階段進行：第一階段為推動「信心建立措施」（Confidence Building Measures, CBMs）；第二階段為發展「預防外交」（Preventive Diplomacy）；第三階段則是發展區域衝突的解決機制。至一九九九年第六屆「東協區域論壇」年會為止，已在「信心建立」上達成可觀的成就，並於一九九七年開始朝第二階段「預防外交」推動。 亞太國家在「東協區域論壇」各項目標的推動下，逐漸對區域安全事務之合作建立共識，對於和緩國際緊張情勢，降低衝突昇高機率，具有正面而積極之意義。惟其組織結構鬆散，屬性為協商安全議題之區域性論壇，雖然「信心建立措施」與「預防外交」的推動實施有其顯著成果，要能夠達到具備解決區域衝突的機制，尚有許多仍待努力之處。 中華民國目前並非「東協區域論壇」之成員國，在中共排擠壓力下，無法參加此一多邊安全對話機制。不過，台灣在未來亞太區域安全政策的規劃上，可將「東協區域論壇」成員國所形成之安全共識，作為研究實施之參考。同時，加強「綜合性安全」（comprehensive security）以及「合作性安全」（cooperative security）目標之追求，尋求各種多邊安全合作之途徑，在亞太區域安全中扮演積極之角色。如此可避免我國安全利益受損，並可增加參與國際社會之機會。 第一章、 緒 論 第一節 研究動機與研究宗旨 第二節 研究方法與限制 第三節 研究範圍 第二章、東協區域論壇之成立與運作 第一節 東協區域論壇之成立背景與過程 第二節 東協區域論壇之宗旨與目標 第三節 東協區域論壇之基本架構 第四節 東協區域論壇之運作模式 第三章、東協區域論壇之成就 第一節 歷屆東協區域論壇年會(外長會議)主要議題 第二節 東協區域論壇推動區域安全合作之各項成就 第三節 東協區域論壇對南海問題之態度與處理方式 第四章、東協區域論壇與亞太強權之關係 第一節 東協區域論壇與美國之關係 第二節 東協區域論壇與中共之關係 第三節 東協區域論壇與日本之關係 第五章、結 論

東南亞國家自十五世紀以來即置於歐洲列強統治之下。第二次世界大戰結束，同時對東南亞與歐洲之發展造成影響。東南亞各國於二次大戰期間，逐漸經由民族自覺形成區域主義，終於在一九六七年建立「東南亞國家協會」（ASEAN，以下簡稱東協）；歐洲各國則基於經濟合作之考量而逐步建立「歐洲共同體」（EC，以下簡稱歐體）。 經由東方歷史薰陶與村莊文化，尤其是馬來文化中協商討論與共識的影響，形成東協於國際組織中特殊之共識決外交政策，並以一致之立場反映於國際間。歐體發展較早且組織亦較東協成熟，惟各國基於本身利益之考量，對於國際議題往往意見相左，使歐體於國際間之團結程度反而不若東協。 一九七二年開始，東協與歐體雙方展開接觸，東協需要來自歐體之經貿優惠、技術轉讓、合作開發與政治支持，歐體則需要來自東協提供之原料與市場，雙方基於實際利益考量而進行合作是相當自然的，彼此於一九七八年正式展開部長級會議並於一九八零年簽訂合作協定。此後，雙方將合作範疇逐步擴大，並針對多項國際議題進行具體合作。 冷戰結束後，國際局勢有新的發展，東協與歐體皆有擴增，歐體進一步發展成「歐洲聯盟」（EU，以下簡稱歐盟），東協亦朝向十國組織邁進，彼此合作更為密切，亦促成兩次「亞歐高峰會」（ASEM）之召開。但雙方亦因緬甸之加入東協與東帝汶等人權議題產生歧見。 整體而言，東協對歐盟之政策係以彼此共識為基礎，以整體立場對歐盟尋求最大利益。展望未來，東協與歐盟之合作關係，將於現今基礎上繼續擴展其他包括安全面向之合作。 / Southeast Asia had been dominated by European Powers since 15thcntury until the second world war. After the second world war, thenewly independent states emerge in the southeast asia region, andASEAN was founded in 1967. ASEAN is famous of its decision-making process, well known as"common decision", every member's opinion must be heared by theothers, and "feelers technique" do help each other on understandingmutually. According to common interests, ASEAN and EC begin dialoguessince 1978, and signed an agreement on cooperation in 1980. As the Cold War ended in 1990s, ASEAN and EC both expandedthemselves, and under the urges of both sides, the ASEM was held inBangkok and London 1996 and 1998, to get mutual understandings andto promote the common interests for bothsides. The most difference between ASEAN and EC is the human rights issue,especially on Burma and East Timor. Fortunately, ASEAN and EC will intense their cooperativerelationship in the foreseenable future.

No description available.

The overall purpose of this dissertation is to provide an empirical study of the post-Cold War EastAsian security setting, with the aim of understanding why there is an East Asian peace. The EastAsian peace exists in a region with a history of militarised conflicts, home to many of the world'slongest ongoing militarised problems and a number of unresolved critical flashpoints. Thus, thepost-Cold War East Asian inter-state peace is a paradox. Despite being a region predicted to be ripefor conflict, there have not only been less wars than expected, but the region also shows severalsigns of a development towards a more durable peace. The dominant research paradigm –neorealism – has painted a gloomy picture of post-Cold War East Asia, with perpetual conflictsdominating the predictions. Other mainstream international relations theories, too, fail to accountfully for the relative peace. One of the greatest problems for mainstream theories, is accounting forpeace given East Asia's lack of security organisations or other formalised conflict managementmechanisms. Given this paradox/problem, this dissertation sets out to ask "Why is there a relativepeace in the East Asian security setting despite an absence of security organisations or otherformalised mechanisms to prevent existing conflicts from escalating into violence?" In order to answer this question, the case of East Asian peace is approached by comparingthree embedded case studies within the region: the Taiwan issue, the South China Sea, and theKorean nuclear conflict. It explores the full range of informal and formal processes plus the ConflictPrevention and Peacebuilding Mechanisms (CPPBMs) that have been important for the creation ofa continuing relative peace in East Asia between 1990 and 2008. The study furthermore focuses onChina's role in the three cases, on an empirical basis consisting of interviews conducted with keypersons during more than 1.5 years fieldwork in China. The three cases show that informal processes exist, and that they have furthermore beenimportant for peace, both by preventing conflicts from escalating into war, and by buildingconditions for a stable longer-term peace. Their impact on the persistence of peace has been tracedto a range of different CPPBMs. Returning to the level of the East Asian case, a common feature ofmany of the identified processes is that they can be understood as aspects or manifestations of theEast Asian regionalisation process. Specifically, elite interactions (personal networks, track twodiplomacy), back-channel negotiations, economic interdependence and integration, and functionalcooperation have together with (China's acceptance of) multilateralism and institutionalisation (ofpeaceful relations) been of high importance for the relative peace. Whereas formalised conflictmanagement mechanisms and the U.S. presence have also contributed to peace, this dissertationshows their contribution to be much more limited.

冷戰時期，東南亞區域發展受限於美蘇軍事力量的影響而互有對峙。直至21世紀初，隨著美、蘇兩國在東南亞部署的部分軍事力量移轉，加上中國大陸持續經濟成長與綜合國力的提升，使得在深化與東南亞周邊外交關係發展上，創造出有利條件，中共藉由經濟合作與軍事手段執行其在東南亞地區的睦鄰政策，以符合其在亞太地區周邊外交的戰略作為。 中共對東南亞國家周邊外交，主要係以政治和睦、經濟互利、安全互信等三個面向為基礎目標，試圖建構一個和平穩定的亞太周邊環境。首先在政治上，主要作法是強化與周邊國家政治關係，透過領導人出訪與各領域、各層級工作會議召開以及各國政治協定的簽署，全面提升與東南亞各國雙邊關係；其次在經濟上，主要在雙邊與多邊關係上加強與周邊國家的經濟合作，推動區域經濟一體化，並透過自由貿易區的計畫，次區域合作與經濟援助，強化在東南亞的影響力，藉成立「中國-東協自由貿易區」拉攏東協各國家；再者在安全上，加強解決與周邊國家解決在領土與領海主權上的爭議，與周邊國家建立雙邊軍事互信機制，參與多邊安全機制，如：參與「東協區域論壇」，及《東南亞友好合作條約》的加入等，藉以營造區域內負責任的大國形象。 中共在周邊外交戰略中，在東南亞區域議題是基於國家周邊安全與區域安全的考量，與中美大國關係的建立重要議題。在2009年美國總統歐巴馬上任之後，宣示美國「重返亞洲」企圖，並啟動多項亞太政策，著墨於區域多邊途徑，其政策亦正逐步落實中，美國對亞太區域發展影響力隨之增加。然而因美國在亞太長期的戰略影響力，重新關注東南亞地區，並以東南亞為軍事戰略重點，也使得中共在制訂對東南亞區域戰略過程與考量，須同時考慮美國影響因素的存在性。 同時，在中國大陸本身國家安全戰略考量之下與東南亞各國家合作，將有利於其國家整體發展與國家核心利益的維持，然中共在東南亞區域的整體戰略，同時牽動中共整體的周邊外交戰略。 / During the Cold War Era, the development of Southeast Asia region was limited and caused confrontations because of the influence of military power posed by Soviet-American arm race. Not until the beginning of 21st century, Soviet Union and United States’ transition of parts of military deployment in Southeast Asia region, couple with Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) continual economic growth and developing overall national strength, have created favorable conditions for CCP in developing and deepening diplomatic relations within Southeast Asia region. Moreover, through economic cooperation and military means, CCP carries out neighborhood policy in accordance to its diplomatic strategy in Southeast Asia region. CCP’s good neighbor foreign policy in Southeast Asia region mainly focuses on political harmony, economic common benefits as well as security and mutual-trust. All the above are fundamental goals in order to construct a peaceful and stable Asia-Pacific region. First, to start with politics, CCP strengthens political relations with neighboring countries through Key leader engagements, working conferences in all fields and levels as well as signing political agreements to enhance bilateral relationship among Southeast Asia countries. Second, followed by economics, in bilateral or multi-lateral economic cooperation with neighboring states, to promote regional economy integration and strengthen the CCP’s influence in Southeast Asia by plan of free trade area, sub-regional cooperation and assistance of economy. Also, CCP establishes ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) in order to win ASEAN over. Third, in terms of security, CCP endeavors to resolve territory and maritime territory disputes with neighboring countries, sets up a bilateral military mutual trust mechanism, and participates in a multi-lateral security mechanism. For instance, CCP’s participation as a member of ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) is able to create an image as a responsible rising power in the region. In CCP’s strategy of neighboring diplomacy, the issues are based on national and regional security in Southeast Asia region and how to built Sino-American relations. After the inauguration of Barack Obama in 2009, he declared the intention of pivot or rebalancing towards the Asia-Pacific region, and launched several Asia-Pacific policies describing the regional multilateral approach and gradually implementing policies as result of increasing of United States’ influence in Asia-Pacific region. However, the long-term strategic influence of United States of America in Asia, US’s pivot to Southeast Asia region, and military strategy focusing on Southeast Asia force CCP to consider the factors of influence of United States when CCP formulates Southeast Asia region strategies. In the meantime, under the consideration of CCP’s national security strategy, to cooperate with Southeast Asia countries is beneficial CCP’s overall national development and in maintaining national essential interests. In short, CCP’s overall strategy in Southeast Asia affects its neighboring diplomatic strategies simultaneously.

Submitted by DANIEL MARTINS SILVA null (daniel_m105@hotmail.com) on 2016-06-13T12:09:12Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação-Final-2016.pdf: 1232731 bytes, checksum: a3b1a459a153bdc0df5be33dcfc2b83a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Juliano Benedito Ferreira (julianoferreira@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2016-06-15T19:30:27Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 silva_dm_me_mar.pdf: 1232731 bytes, checksum: a3b1a459a153bdc0df5be33dcfc2b83a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-15T19:30:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 silva_dm_me_mar.pdf: 1232731 bytes, checksum: a3b1a459a153bdc0df5be33dcfc2b83a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-05-17 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Entre o fim do governo George W. Bush e o primeiro mandato do governo Barack Obama os Estados Unidos iniciou sua participação na Parceria Transpacífica (PTP). A fim de entender as motivações norte-americanas para este acordo regional de comércio, a dissertação trabalhou com a hipótese de que a evolução do novo regionalismo asiático, a partir dos anos 2000, teve um peso significativo na estratégia estadunidense de comércio. Destacam-se a ASEAN+3 e a ASEAN+6, grupos liderados pelo Japão e China para incrementar a integração econômica do Leste Asiático. Diante da emergência desta configuração, os Estados Unidos estiveram excluídos do processo. Para averiguar esta afirmação utilizamos a plataforma Inside Trade, entrevistas e notícias de jornais relevantes; arquivos da Casa Branca (relatórios dos principais órgãos decisórios e discursos); relatórios anuais e outros documentos do USTR; além de arquivos do Departamento de Estado (em especial do Escritório de Assuntos do Leste Asiático e Pacífico). A análise do material empírico revelou que o receio de exclusão dos Estados Unidos e da predominância da China como ator político no comércio intra-asiático foram questões frequentemente levantadas pelo empresariado e policy-makers da política comercial norte-americana. Além de circunstâncias regionais, o envolvimento dos Estados Unidos no acordo se explica pelo seu interesse em moldar as regras que conformam o regime global de comércio. Demonstramos que expandir a presença política do país na Ásia-Pacífico e constranger a emergência chinesa eram tarefas fundamentais para alcançar este objetivo. / Between the end of George W. Bush’s government and Barack Obama’s first term, the United States began its participation in Transpacific Partnership (TPP). In order to understand american motivation for this regional trade agreement, our hypothesis supported that new asian regionalism dynamics had a weight in US trade policy strategy. We highlitgh ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+6, groups leading for Japan and China to increase economic integration of East Asia. In this configuration, the United States had been excluded. Aiming to check this, we use the “Inside Trade” platform, interviews and news of important newspapers; the White House archives (reports of the main agencies and discourses); annual reports and other documents from USTR; also US Department of State’s archives (especially the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs). The empirical analysis reveal that fear of United States’ exclusion and the China’s predominance as political actor in intra-asian trade were often raised by business and policy makers of US trade policy. Beyond regional reasons, US envolvement is explained by its interest to shape the rules conforming global trade regime. We demonstrate that raising US political presence and constraining chinese emergence were fundamental tasks to achieve this goal.

Cette thèse propose une étude globale sur les contrats build-operate-transfer (BOT). Ils sont traités dans leurs aspects financiers, juridiques et contractuels. Les investissements dans les infrastructures publiques telles que les transports, l’eau, l’énergie constituent non seulement un outil de développement économique, mais aussi contribuent à l’amélioration des conditions de vie humaine. Mais, pour réaliser ces projets souvent de taille importante, le financement est un des principaux soucis des décideurs publics. En particulier, le Cambodge figure parmi les États à bas revenus. Les contraintes financières sont telles que l’État recourt de plus en plus au secteur privé, notamment par le biais des contrats BOT. Par cette technique, l’État peut cibler ses besoins spécifiques, tout en évitant le déficit budgétaire. En contrepartie, le secteur privé bénéficie d’un droit d’exploiter une infrastructure en cause pour une durée généralement longue pendant laquelle il rentabilise ses investissements.En se basant sur l’association des intérêts publics et privés, la mise en œuvre des contrats BOT nécessite un cadre juridique adéquate, sans lequel les intérêts publics pourraient être menacés, et cela pourrait être dissuasif pour la décision des investisseurs, notamment étrangers. / This thesis suggests a comprehensive study on the build-operate-transfer contracts (BOT). They are analysed in their financial, legal and contractual aspects.Investment in public infrastructure such as transport, water, energy is not only a tool for economic development, but also contributes to the improvement of human life’s conditions. However, to achieve these major projects, funding is a major concern of policy makers. In particular, Cambodia is among the States with low income. Financial constraints are such that the State resorts increasingly to the private sector, including through BOT contracts. By this technique, the State can target their specific needs, while avoiding the budget deficit. In return, the private sector has a right to operate the infrastructure in question for a period generally long during which it recovers its investments.Based on a combination of public and private interests, the implementation of BOT contracts requires a proper legal framework, without which public interests might be threatened, and that could be a deterrent for the decision of investors, especially foreigners.

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Many regions of the world would like to replicate the financial and monetary integration of the European Monetary Union (EMU). Member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have shown an interest in such an arrangement. ASEAN is a political, cultural, and economic association that includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Many of these nations are experiencing rapid economic development while others are still relatively poor and under developed. As such, they appear to be an unlikely group for currency unification. Older studies suggest that multiple currency union groupings may be possible in the short run that could be unified into a whole at an unspecified time in the future. The issue has been studied for some time and appeared defunct with the onset of the Asian Financial Crisis. More than a decade has passed and another more global financial crisis has ensued leaving many Asian countries in better shape than their highly developed trading partners in the west. This leads to the need for further examination of the possible unification of some or all ASEAN members into a Regional Currency Arrangement. This dissertation evaluates the readiness of the ASEAN nations for monetary union using data from the post Asian Financial Crisis period. Results of a formal G-PPP test show the area is an optimum currency area. Analysis of other criteria shows incredible diversity across the countries in the region that would make unification a challenge. Coordination of monetary policy would be most difficult given the variety of inflation rates and differences in depth of financial system development as explored in chapter 2. Trade has increased in the region leading to better linkages among economies but the data shows that reaching full integration of all countries by the 2020 deadline without disruptions in some economies may still be difficult.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T20:20:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Paulo Rogerio Scarano.pdf: 2048190 bytes, checksum: 33a0f06df2db79357f59f0dbab92aed9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-06-03 / The purpose of this work is to analyze the possibilities and limitations of the regional financial arrangement called Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI); a agreement among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Japan, China and South Korea (ASEAN+3), whose aim is to supply temporary funds to any of its members in need, to face an international context of high volatility of capital flows in which the lacking of proper mechanisms to provide liquidity could result in crises that could go beyond the boundaries of a particular nation. This interdisciplinary study, which shares topics with the areas of International Relations and International Political Economy, is fundamental to understand the scope and the difficulties involving regional financial agreements among different countries that frequently compete with each other and have a history of rivalry and territorial disputes. So the initial hypothesis about the reaches and limitations of Chiang Mai Initiative is that they are a result of the financial and economical interdependence, associated with the political differences between the countries of the ASEAN+3. This work starts with a short review on the International Monetary and Financial System and its institutions, particularly the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), since the Bretton Woods agreements until the current international financial architecture. It follows a discussion about how this architecture may be associated with the Asiatic Crises of 1997-98, basing the analysis on the vulnerability indicators of the countries affected by the crises and the actions taken by the IMF. The discontentment concerning the procedures of the international financial institutions favored the conditions necessary for the progress of the CMI. Such progress will be approached based on the analysis of the documentation produced at the ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers Meeting and the associated literature. After discussed the CMI institutional characteristics, this work explores the degree of economic integration between the countries of the region, using the data available by the local governments and the international organizations like the IMF, the World Bank and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). It is also shown in this work that if in on hand the regional interdependence justifies a regional financial arrangement like the CMI, on the other hand the absence of a clear regional hegemony, the regional rivalries and a significant territorial disputes caused difficulties to establish a regional cooperation environment. The large accumulation of international reserves as a self protection mechanism among the East Asian nations illustrates their suspicious regarding a regional collective solution / O objetivo do presente trabalho é analisar as possibilidades e as limitações do arranjo financeiro regional denominado Iniciativa de Chiang Mai (CMI), acordado entre os países da Associação das Nações do Sudeste Asiático, o Japão, a China e a Coréia (ASEAN+3). Trata-se de uma iniciativa regional para fazer frente às necessidades temporárias de divisas que um país-membro possa enfrentar, em um cenário internacional de grande volatilidade no fluxo de capitais, em que a ausência de mecanismos adequados e tempestivos de provisão de liquidez pode resultar em uma crise com poder para ultrapassar as fronteiras da nação inicialmente atingida. O estudo do tema, de caráter interdisciplinar entre as áreas de Relações Internacionais e da Economia Política Internacional, é fundamental para que se possam compreender os alcances e as dificuldades que envolvem um acordo para fornecimento de divisas entre países muito diferentes, que frequentemente competem entre si, e que possuem um histórico de rivalidades e disputas territoriais. Assim, parte-se da hipótese de que os alcances e as limitações da CMI são dados pela interdependência econômicofinanceira e pelas diferenças políticas entre os países associados à ASEAN+3. Para realizar o presente trabalho, parte-se de uma breve revisão da literatura sobre o Sistema Monetário e Financeiro Internacional e suas instituições, com ênfase no papel do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI), dos acordos de Bretton Woods até a atual configuração da arquitetura financeira internacional. Em seguida, o trabalho discute como tal arquitetura pode ser associada à natureza da Crise Asiática de 1997-98, analisando os indicadores de vulnerabilidade dos países afetados e a atuação do FMI. Mostra, assim, que o descontentamento com o encaminhamento dado pela institucionalidade financeira internacional criou o ambiente necessário para o avanço da CMI. Tal avanço será retratado a partir da análise da documentação produzida nas Reuniões dos Ministros das Finanças da ASEAN+3 e da literatura subsequente. Exposta a institucionalidade da CMI, o trabalho parte para uma análise exploratória do grau de integração econômica entre os países da região, a partir de dados disponibilizados pelos governos locais e por organizações internacionais como o FMI, o Banco Mundial e a Conferência das Nações Unidas para o Comércio e o Desenvolvimento (UNCTAD). O trabalho mostra que, se por um lado o grau de interdependência regional justifica um arranjo financeiro regional como a CMI, e sua institucionalização é evidência disso, por outro lado, a inexistência de uma clara hegemonia na região, as rivalidades entre os países e a existência de disputas territoriais importantes criam dificuldades para a cooperação regional. O elevado acúmulo de reservas internacionais, como mecanismo individual de autoproteção generalizado entre os países do Leste Asiático, ilustra sua desconfiança em uma solução coletiva regional