素有經貿聯合國之稱的世界貿易組織自2001年起推動的杜哈回合談判，歷經13年的談判僅於2013年12月達成小部分的早期收穫，如此緩速的進展，使得各國紛紛轉向較小規模，較快完成的區域貿易協定，亞太地區國家也積極的參與其中。亞太經濟合作（APEC）為亞太地區唯一的經貿相關跨政府論壇，亦關注到此發展趨勢。自2004年起經由企業家代表組成的企業諮詢委員會提案成立亞太自由貿易區，至2007年正式進入APEC的議程，但推動的過程並不順遂，美國遂轉向發展太平洋夥伴協定，東協國家專注於區域全面經濟夥伴協定，拉美會員體形成太平洋聯盟，APEC則發展出區域經濟整合議程並同時推動著亞太自由貿易區，後者雖然推動力道薄弱，但卻未消失在議程中。直至2010年及2014年在日本及中國大陸的主辦優勢下，將亞太自由貿易區定調為全面高品質的自由貿易協定，為APEC達成茂物目標的主要工具之一，而達成的途徑則是以現有的區域間發展的經濟整合機制為主，另外區域經濟整合議程採取部門別議題別的方式進行，也是朝著茂物目標邁進。 本研究從APEC的本質、原則及精神逐步探討至亞太自由貿易區及區域經濟整合議程兩個途徑的可能走向及發展限制等。對於採取條約式具約束性的亞太自由貿易區而言，獨自進行談判的機率極低，最可能透過太平洋夥伴協定擴大而成。而區域經濟整合議程則是便捷化的成果大於自由化，透過降低供應鏈障礙或通關經商便捷措施，亦可節省交易成本，應加以廣化及深化。我國在兩個途徑的參與上，在亞太自由貿易區的成型過程應完全參與，以避免我國被排除在外的可能性，至於區域經濟整合議程，則應加強在會務運作及貿易暨投資委員會及所屬次級論壇的力道，方能妥善運用我國少數擁有正式會籍的國際經貿組織為我國融入區域經濟創造有利的條件。 / The Doha Development Agenda (DDA) gained little progress by the WTO since 2001. Many countries including those in the Asia Pacific area changed their policy and decided to join themselves in free trade agreements (agreements which were smaller scale and faster to complete) in comparison with the DDA. Upon noticing this trend by APEC, the establishment of Free Trade Area of Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) was proposed in 2004 by the APEC Business Advisory Council. It became one of the topics in the APEC agenda in 2007. However, the progress of FTAAP was not as expected, members in APEC had their own focus thereafter. The United States focused on the Tras-Pacific Partership (TPP), ASEAN members developed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and members in Latin America targeted on Pacific Alliance. Within APEC, the discussion of FTAAP till now has reached a consensus on the definition as a high quality and comprehensive trade agreement, that builds on the sub-regional trade agreement. Besides, there is another topic as regional economic integration agenda (REI agenda) which is subject oriented and non-binding to APEC members. Both FTAAP and REI agenda are ways for the realization of Bogor Goals. This study starts from the APEC content, principles and visions to the possible directions and restrictions of the development of the FTAAP and REI agenda. With regard to FTAAP, it's rule-based and it has little possibility to launch negotiations in a short term, and it could be accomplished by the expansion of TPP. In regard to the REI agenda, the accomplishment of facilitation is more important than liberalization. It should deepen and broaden the trade facilitation measures, such as supply-chain connectivity, customs procedures, transparency...etc. Finally the suggestions for Taiwan's participation in those two areas are as follows. To participate fully in the activity and the realization of FTAAP, this will avoid the possibility to be excluded from the FTAAP. Taiwan should invest a bigger effort in the Committee of Trade and Investment, its sub-flora and the meeting operation. We should make good use of APEC considering is one of the few international organizations Taiwan possesses full membership of to create a positive environment that will enable us in the economic integration.

世界各國在經過亞洲金融危機、次貸風暴、歐債危機…等事件後，經濟遭受重創，各國為求經濟成長，區域經濟整合(Regional Economic Integration,REI)逐漸盛行成為趨勢，透過自由貿易協定（Free Trade Agreement, FTA）盼能吸引外資熱錢長期投資以增進成長動能，於是藉由規劃自由經濟區（Free Economic Zone,FEZ）做為貿易競爭的工具，以提昇國家競爭力。 我國因特殊的政治因素及獨特的地理環境因素，導致加入國際組織的困難及必須依靠對外貿易以獲得資源。自由經濟示範區（Taiwan Free Economic Pilot Zones, TFEPZ）的推動代表著政府想引進外資邁向國際化的決心，但在面對國際政治困境、經濟邊緣化、政府朝野對立的情況下，政策及法規的鬆綁與否成為立法院朝野互相攻防的要點。 本研究藉由在貿易上與我國在國際間既合作又競爭且具有密切關係的中國大陸、韓國、日本等三國，藉由研究其自由貿易區政策之內容及推動現況，與我國政策進行比較分析，期能發現不足之處，進而參考借鏡提出相關建議，期許其未來發展得以更臻完善。 / The world's economy has been plagued by a series of financial disasters in recent years, including the Asian financial crisis, subprime mortgage crisis, and the European debt crisis. To revive economy, countries around the world have been seeking deeper cooperation through regional economic integration (REI). Governments have signed free trade agreements (FTA) to draw long-term foreign investments in an attempt to jumpstart growth. They have established free economic zones (FEZ) to boost international trades and improve national competitiveness. However, due to political and geological environment, Taiwan faces a great challenge when trying to join international organizations. Besides, the country has to rely on international trades to acquire necessary resources for growth. The launch of Taiwan Free Economic Pilot Zones (TFEPZ) demonstrates the government's determination to attract foreign investments and play a more important role in the global economy. Yet, given the international political hurdles, risks of economic marginalization, and constant gridlock between the ruling party and the opposition parties in Taiwan, it will be a great challenge for the Legislative Yuan to relax related regulations after a series of fierce debates. This research investigates policies and implementation results of FTZs in South Korea, Japan, and Mainland China—one of Taiwan's close trade partner and competitor. By analyzing and comparing FTZ policies in Taiwan, Mainland China, South Korea, and Japan, this research aims to find some aspects of improvement and provide constructive suggestions for the better development of Taiwan Free Economic Pilot Zones.

The regional economic community (REC) of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) compri'ses 15 Southern African countries. The' economic and political aspects of regional integration in SADC dictate the pace of integration while the influence of a legal regime for regional integration remains at the periphery. While the SADC Treaty and its Protocol on Trade are clear about the priority of economic integration; the full implementation of SADC's economic integration is still yet to be realised using these legal instruments. Regional economic integration is also a priority at both continental and global level. The legal instruments applicable at these levels are those established through the African Union (AU) and the World Trade Organisation (WTO) respectively. Analysis of these external legal instruments is relevant because SADC Member States are signatories to agreements establishing these organisations·. Thus, rules based trade in SADC should be understood from a regional, continental and global perspective where a community must have well-structured and managed relations between itself and other legal systems as a necessary condition for its effectiveness. These structured relations refers to a legal and institutional framework that defines the relations between community and national laws, spelling out the modalities for implementing community law in Member States, defines the respective competencies of the community and Member States and provide rule based systems for resolution of conflicts. In setting the scene for an in-depth discussion of the legal and institutional framework for regional economic integration in SADC, this study presents the history of SADC, its political and economic characteristics that have shaped the legal aspects of trade within the region, the continent of Africa and the world at large. Within this context, the definition of regional integration is presented from a general and international understanding but ultimately gets narrowed down to what it means for Africa and SADC. The discussion on the · theories behind regional economic integration gives understanding to the integration approach employed in the organisation. South Africa's economic and political leadership is critical in the realisation of economic integration; hence this study acknowledges that without South Africa's full commitment; regional economic integration will suffer .a setback. Besides the challenge of implementing rules based trade in SADC, this study also identifies a number of obstacles to SADC regional economic integration and multiple memberships are identified as a: major stumbling block. A comparative study of SADC's institutional framework with that of the E1;Jropean Union· (EU) is undertaken to establish the rationale behind SADC's choice of utilising the EU model of integration. This study establishes the critical role institutions play in the implementation of treaty obligations as established by the agreements. The main lesson from this comparative study is that the EU institutions are allowed to fulfill their obligations of implementing treaty provisions, while SADC institutions are handicapped. The future of SADC is presented within the context of a set of recommendations that identifies the tripartite free trade area (FTA) that includes the East Africa Community (EAC) and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) as one of viable legal instrument for deeper integration in SADC and the continent of Africa. General recommendations are made on the need for reform of rules and principles that are necessary for the implementation of SADC Treaty regime as well as possible improvements that are important for the full realisation of regional economic integration. / PhD (Law), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012

The regional economic community (REC) of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) compri'ses 15 Southern African countries. The' economic and political aspects of regional integration in SADC dictate the pace of integration while the influence of a legal regime for regional integration remains at the periphery. While the SADC Treaty and its Protocol on Trade are clear about the priority of economic integration; the full implementation of SADC's economic integration is still yet to be realised using these legal instruments. Regional economic integration is also a priority at both continental and global level. The legal instruments applicable at these levels are those established through the African Union (AU) and the World Trade Organisation (WTO) respectively. Analysis of these external legal instruments is relevant because SADC Member States are signatories to agreements establishing these organisations·. Thus, rules based trade in SADC should be understood from a regional, continental and global perspective where a community must have well-structured and managed relations between itself and other legal systems as a necessary condition for its effectiveness. These structured relations refers to a legal and institutional framework that defines the relations between community and national laws, spelling out the modalities for implementing community law in Member States, defines the respective competencies of the community and Member States and provide rule based systems for resolution of conflicts. In setting the scene for an in-depth discussion of the legal and institutional framework for regional economic integration in SADC, this study presents the history of SADC, its political and economic characteristics that have shaped the legal aspects of trade within the region, the continent of Africa and the world at large. Within this context, the definition of regional integration is presented from a general and international understanding but ultimately gets narrowed down to what it means for Africa and SADC. The discussion on the · theories behind regional economic integration gives understanding to the integration approach employed in the organisation. South Africa's economic and political leadership is critical in the realisation of economic integration; hence this study acknowledges that without South Africa's full commitment; regional economic integration will suffer .a setback. Besides the challenge of implementing rules based trade in SADC, this study also identifies a number of obstacles to SADC regional economic integration and multiple memberships are identified as a: major stumbling block. A comparative study of SADC's institutional framework with that of the E1;Jropean Union· (EU) is undertaken to establish the rationale behind SADC's choice of utilising the EU model of integration. This study establishes the critical role institutions play in the implementation of treaty obligations as established by the agreements. The main lesson from this comparative study is that the EU institutions are allowed to fulfill their obligations of implementing treaty provisions, while SADC institutions are handicapped. The future of SADC is presented within the context of a set of recommendations that identifies the tripartite free trade area (FTA) that includes the East Africa Community (EAC) and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) as one of viable legal instrument for deeper integration in SADC and the continent of Africa. General recommendations are made on the need for reform of rules and principles that are necessary for the implementation of SADC Treaty regime as well as possible improvements that are important for the full realisation of regional economic integration. / PhD (Law), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012

Motivation of virtually all regional economic integration (REI) initiatives has been prospect of enhanced economic growth. Although REI's role in contributing to growth and development was recognised and acknowledged, its importance in Africa has never been properly outlined. Theoretical background, economic assumptions and evidence of REI are examined to bring out REI's importance to Africa. Depicting from these, benefits and challenges of REI in Africa are explored. This dissertation analyses the progress, pace, approach, sequence of REI in Africa looking at different variables. Africa's regional integration blueprint and institutional framework are compared to EU's but selected areas are identified as essential for Africa. Progress on REI has been found to be slow. This study concludes that REI should be viewed as one aspect of strategy towards Africa's development and growth. However, the benefits of REI make it imperative for it to remain the central pillar of Africa's development agenda. / Economics / M.Com. (Economics)

多邊主義下帶動之「全球化」及區域主義下所帶動之「區域化」皆已成為現階段國際經貿發展的兩股重要潮流，透過洽簽自由貿易協定所達到之區域經濟整合，在區域內可消除絕大部份之關稅及非關稅貿易障礙，預計將有助於增進會員國間之貿易量，形成貿易創造效果，而或對於非會員國造成貿易轉向效果。故其將影響國際貿易的流向，國際資源的重分配，進而改變國際分工型態。 為瞭解區域經濟整合對於貿易流量的影響，本文首先將就區域經濟整合之定義與法源、區域經濟整合發展與現況、及台灣與各主要區域經濟整合之貿易概況進行概述。鑒於引力模型可有效的分析雙邊的貿易流量，本文針對該模型之相關文獻及實證歸納與整理，並利用引力模型，選擇全球六個重要區域經濟組織包括北美自由貿易區、歐盟、東協自由貿易區、南方共同市場、安地略集團及紐澳緊密關係協定等區域共計37個國家，以設定虛擬變數之方式實證1990年至2003年長達13年間各區域經濟整合的過程中，其對於區內會員國及對非屬會員國進、出口貿易流量之影響，特別是整合過程中對台灣是否產生貿易轉向之現象進行實證研究，並分析影響貿易流量之因素。 本實證研究發現影響二國間貿易流量的因素分別為出、進口國之國民生產毛額及人均國民生產毛額，以及距離。區域經濟整合具有明顯的貿易創造效果，而貿易轉向效果則隨經濟整合的緊密程度、區域內產業分工型態及與區域外國家出、進口結構及產業間相互競合程度不一而產生不同的影響。在上述六個區域經濟整合中，北美自由貿易區及南方共同市場對台灣產生貿易轉向的現象。本研究亦針對上述之結果與區域經濟整合實際進展現況進行交互分析。最後，本研究將就政策面及後續研究的方向提出建議，俾供參考。 / Globalization and regionalization have been the two main trends in international economic development in recent years. Already, many countries have signed Free Trade Agreements to achieve the goal of regional economic integration. This integration allows members of the region to virtually eliminate all tariff and non-tariff trade barriers and, as a result, increase trade volume between member countries. This phenomenon is called trade creation. On the other hand, trade volume between members of the region and non-member may decrease, a phenomenon called trade diversion. All of this will affect international trade flows, the allocation of international resources and change the pattern of the international industrial division. In order to learn how regional economic integration influences trade flows, this paper deals first with the definition and regulation under the GATT of regional trade agreements, the present situation and the development of regional economic integration. We also examine the current state of import and export trade between Taiwan and the main regional economies in the world. This paper reviews the relevant literature on the gravity model, a model that can effectively analyze trade flows between two countries, then proceeds to use this model with NAFTA, EU, AFTA, MERCOSUR, ANDEAN Community, and CER (Closer Economic Relationship between the Australia and New Zealand) as regional dummies. This allows us to test alterations in trade flows between members and other members as well as between members and non-members (especially Taiwan) in these six regional trade blocs for the 13 years between 1990 and 2003. This model also analyzes the main factors affecting trade flows. We find first that the main factors influencing trade flows between two countries are the GDP and per capita GDP of the importer and exporter as well as distance. Secondly, while regional economic integration clearly brings with it trade creation, the degree of trade diversion is affected by such factors as the degree of regional economic integration, the pattern of industrial division in the region, the structure of imports from and exports to non-member countries and the level of competition and cooperation in various sectors. The empirical evidence shows that NAFTA and Mercosur have resulted in trade diversion away from Taiwan. Based on our findings, we offer policy suggestions and suggestions for further research.

La nouvelle stratégie d'intégration adoptée en 2000 par les pays Sud-Américains, après trois décennies d'instabilité économique et de crises récurrentes, est un jalon de l'histoire économique de la région. En effet, la volatilité du cycle économique de ces pays s'est réduite significativement à partir de cette date, atteignant son niveau le plus bas depuis 1950. L'analyse d'un tel phénomène est particulièrement intéressante en particulier lorsque l'on se place dans le contexte de turbulences et de crises des années 2000, à savoir, la crise financière mondiale (2008-2009) et, dans son sillage, la crise des dettes souveraines en zone euro. Dans cette thèse, l'objectif est d'étudier le projet d'intégration régionale d'Amérique du Sud, institutionnalisé en 2008 avec la création de l'Union des Nations Sud-Américaines Unasur, en tant que vecteur de stabilisation de ces économies. De ce fait, il s'agit de concentrer l'analyse sur les interactions entre les douze pays du continent Sud-Américain – Argentine, Bolivie, Brésil, Chili, Colombie, Équateur, Guyana, Paraguay, Pérou, Uruguay, Suriname et Venezuela – qui forment un groupe hétérogène autour d'un objectif commun l' "… intégration culturelle, sociale, économique et politique …" et la "… réduction des asymétries de la qualité de vie de ses citoyens … ". La thèse s'intéresse exclusivement aux aspects économiques d'un tel projet d'intégration régionale. À partir d'outils empiriques et théoriques, nous cherchons à évaluer le niveau de convergence et de vulnérabilité des économies concernées. Plus particulièrement une analyse des impacts des politiques d'intégration dans court terme et une étude de leurs performances macroéconomiques de long terme. La thèse se divise en quatre chapitres et s'appuie sur des modèles qui intègrent diverses sources de diffusion des chocs asymétriques. Le premier chapitre présente l'état de l'art de la théorie d'intégration économique régionale en soulignant le cas Sud-Américain. Le deuxième chapitre analyse, à l'aide de modèles vectoriels autorégressifs structurels et de mesures de corrélation, l'impact de chocs externes sur les secteurs réel, monétaire et budgétaire des pays membres de l'Unasur. L'analyse montre que : (i) même les pays les plus fermés (Argentine et Venezuela) et les plus industrialisées (Brésil) présentent une forte vulnérabilité aux perturbations internationales, (ii) cette vulnérabilité individuelle se traduit en une convergence de court terme des trajectoires des principales variables macroéconomiques des pays concernés. Dans le troisième chapitre, on cherche à mesurer le degré de convergence de long terme des niveaux de vie des citoyens Sud-Américains à l’aide de modèles empiriques vectoriels à correction d'erreur et de techniques de cointégration. Les résultats montrent l'existence de tendances stochastiques communes à long terme. Cela signifie que les pays sont engagés dans un processus d'évolution vers un objectif commun, autrement dit, que les conditions de vie des citoyens Sud-Américains ne divergent pas à long terme. En fin, le troisième chapitre vise à analyser l'impact de l'investissement dans la construction de réseaux régionaux de transport, de communication et d'énergie, sur la réduction de l'hétérogénéité structurelle des pays de l'Unasur (projet IIRSA). En effectuant un certain nombre d'expériences de politique dans un cadre théorique, cette analyse constate que : (i) une accroissement d'investissement public en infrastructure suscite une augmentation du commerce intra-intra-régional mais pas forcément une réduction de l'écart de production entre les pays, (ii) l'écart de production à long terme entre l'Argentine et le Brésil diminue, dans un scénario gagnant-gagnant, en termes de croissance économique, seulement si les gouvernements de ces deux pays coordonnent leur augmentation d'investissement en infrastructure, comme proposé par l'IIRSA. / Economic integration seems to be a new global trend. The past two decades have witnessed the formation of several economic unions in Asia (ASEAN+3 in 1997), Europe (Eurozone in 1999), Africa, and America (Union of South American Nations, Unasur in 2008). The South American case deserves special attention because, unlike the other blocs, the Unasur emerged as a political alliance and not as an economic one. Furthermore, Unasur is conceived as a strategy for improving the socioeconomic conditions of nations that have a common history of economic instability and external dependence. However, while common concerns and political willingness exist among group members, the question of whether that consensus is sufficient to ensure economic integration remains unanswered. For instance, economic integration as a strategy for macroeconomic stability has seemed to work well in Europe after the euro was launched in 1999 (Sapir, 2011), until the breakdown of the European sovereign debt crisis in recent years has revealed the inherent weaknesses of an economic union that lacks a political union (Fligstein et al., 2012, Issing, 2011). This development suggests that the Unasur project is likely to fail if the concerned economies do not converge economically. This is the reason why, this thesis assesses the Unasur project from an economic integration perspective, thus, complementing the huge body of political literature that has been developed on the issue (Briceño-Ruiz, 2014, Sanahuja, 2012). The first chapter describes the theory of economic integration' state of art focusing on South America. The second chapter examines the reactions of the Unasur economies to external shocks. By using a structural vector autoregression approach, it measures the impact of three external shocks (monetary, commercial, and financial) in the real, monetary, and fiscal economic sectors of Unasur economies and investigates co-movement paths. The results show (i) a non-negligible degree of synchronization across the studied economies, confirming their high external vulnerability, (ii) irrespective of size or integration degree, all Unasur members share mutual weaknesses, which they must fight to overcome. The third chapter evaluates the convergence in real GDP per-capita, as a suitable proxy measure, of the concerned economies for the period 1951-2011. By relying on cointegration techniques and applying Bernard and Durlauf's (1995) stochastic definitions of convergence and common trends, the presented evidence supports the existence of common long-run trends driving output in South America, meaning that the region is involved in a dynamic process of convergence in living standards. Finally, the fourth chapter studies the economic spillovers of the most advanced structural project of the group: the Initiative for the Integration of Regional Infrastructure in South America (IIRSA). A micro-founded two-country general equilibrium model is constructed to evaluate potential gains or losses (in terms of output convergence and trade integration) of raising publicly provided transportation infrastructure in a coordinated and uncoordinated manner. The model is solved using data from Argentina and Brazil. Results show that: (i) rising public investment in infrastructure boost commercial integration but not necessarily generates output converge, (ii) the only way for the Argentina and Brazil to achieve output convergence is to coordinate their increments on public infrastructure as proposed by the IIRSA.

Motivation of virtually all regional economic integration (REI) initiatives has been prospect of enhanced economic growth. Although REI's role in contributing to growth and development was recognised and acknowledged, its importance in Africa has never been properly outlined. Theoretical background, economic assumptions and evidence of REI are examined to bring out REI's importance to Africa. Depicting from these, benefits and challenges of REI in Africa are explored. This dissertation analyses the progress, pace, approach, sequence of REI in Africa looking at different variables. Africa's regional integration blueprint and institutional framework are compared to EU's but selected areas are identified as essential for Africa. Progress on REI has been found to be slow. This study concludes that REI should be viewed as one aspect of strategy towards Africa's development and growth. However, the benefits of REI make it imperative for it to remain the central pillar of Africa's development agenda. / Economics / M.Com. (Economics)

Les États ouest-africains ont fait de l’intégration économique la voie privilégiée pour relever le défi du développement économique dans un contexte international de plus en plus concurrentiel. Ainsi, par le biais d’organisations régionale et sous régionale, la protection du libre jeu de la concurrence est devenue un enjeu communautaire. L’intégration économique régionale ouest-africaine a donc été saisie par le droit de la concurrence. De ce fait, on assiste à l’émergence de droits régionaux de la concurrence au sein de l’Union économique et monétaire ouest africaine (UEMOA) et de la Communauté économique des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (CEDEAO). Chacune de ces organisations a donc mis en place un droit de la concurrence dans son espace économique. Il en résulte, vu la composition de l’UEMOA et de la CEDEAO, que ces droits communautaires ont vocation à s’appliquer aux États membres de l’Union qui font également partie de la Communauté. Cette particularité de la coexistence de ces règles communautaires de la concurrence en Afrique de l’Ouest méritait qu’on s’y attarde afin d’évaluer leur application, d’analyser l’effectivité et l’efficacité de ces droits. Cette étude comparative s’est attachée à mettre en exergue ce que renferment ces droits, à relever leurs spécificités, tout en mettant en lumière leurs insuffisances. Il apparaît nécessaire de repenser, voire de réformer certains aspects de ces droits afin d’améliorer leurs applications, gage d’une meilleure protection de la libre concurrence en Afrique de l’Ouest. / West African states have made economic integration the preferred way to deal with the challenge of economic development in an increasingly competitive international context. Thus, through regional and subregional organizations, the protection of the free movement of competition has become a community issue.West African regional economic integration has therefore been seized by competition law. From this, we note emerging competition rights in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Each of these organizations has therefore put in place a competition law in its economic area. As a result, given the composition of UEMOA and ECOWAS, these Community rights are intended to be applied to the Member States of the Union which are also part of the Community. The features of the coexistence of these Community competition law in West Africa deserved to be examined in order to evaluate their application, to analyze the effectiveness and efficiency of these rights. This comparative study intends to highlight the contain of these rights, reveal their specificities, while showing their lacks. It’s necessary to rethink or even reform some aspects of these rights to improve their applications, basis for a better protection of free competition in West Africa.

Cette thèse propose une analyse de certaines des politiques considérées actuellement comme étant des éléments-clé de toute stratégie de développement, avec l’objectif de contribuer au récent débat sur le développement international. Je considère en particulier l’élaboration, la mise en oeuvre et l’évaluation des politiques de protection sociale, de développement participatif et d’intégration régionale. Le premier chapitre repose sur l’idée que, pour être efficaces en matière de réduction de la pauvreté, les politiques de protection sociale doivent avoir pour double objectif de permettre aux ménages pauvres d’accéder à des ressources suffisantes pour satisfaire leurs besoins de base, ainsi que de réduire le risque auquel les ménages non pauvres sont confrontés de voir leur niveau de bien-être diminuer sous le seuil de pauvreté. Je propose une méthode permettant d’estimer le degré de vulnérabilité à la pauvreté des ménages. La vulnérabilité est ici définie comme la probabilité pour un ménage de se trouver sous le seuil de pauvreté dans le futur, étant données ses caractéristiques actuelles. Dans le second chapitre, je me place dans un contexte de ciblage des programmes de protection sociale par un score approximant le niveau de vie (proxy-means testing). La précision, et donc l’efficacité, de cette approche pour identifier les ménages pauvres dépendent de la capacité à prédire avec exactitude le niveau de bien-être des ménages, laquelle découle de la sélection de variables pertinentes. Je propose une méthode basée sur l’estimation d’un échantillon aléatoire de modèles de consommation, pour identifier les variables dont la corrélation avec le bien-être des ménages est à la fois élevée et robuste. Ces variables appartiennent à différentes catégories, y compris la possession de biens durables, l’accès aux services d’énergie domestique et d’assainissement, la qualité et le statut d’occupation du logement, et le niveau d’éducation des membres du ménage. Les troisième et quatrième chapitres de cette thèse proposent une analyse ex-post des politiques de développement, et portent en particulier sur les conséquences inattendues d’un programme de développement participatif et les raisons de l’insuffisante performance de politiques d’intégration régionale, respectivement. Le troisième chapitre évalue dans quelle mesure la réaction des deux groupes rebelles présents aux Philippines face à la mise en oeuvre d’un programme participatif d’aide au développement est compatible avec l’idée que ces deux groupes ont différentes idéologies, caractéristiques et raisons pour lutter contre le gouvernement. Il utilise une base de données collectées en utilisant les reportages d’un journal local concernant les épisodes de guerre impliquant ces deux groupes, ainsi que les prédictions d’un modèle d’insurrection basé sur la recherche de rente (rent-seeking). Les résultats sont conformes à la classification proposée de ces deux groupes rebelles ; leur réaction face au projet dépend de leur position idéologique. Le dernier chapitre analyse l’impact des guerres civiles en Afrique sur la performance des communautés économiques régionales, approximée par la synchronisation des cycles économiques des différents partenaires régionaux. Les résultats montrent que la synchronisation des cycles économiques diminue avec l’occurrence de guerres civiles, non seulement pour les pays directement affectés, mais également pour leurs voisins en paix. / In this thesis, I aim to contribute to the recent international development debate, by providing an analysis of some of the policies that are considered key elements of a development strategy. Focusing on social protection, community-based development and regional integration, I consider aspects related to their design, implementation and evaluation. In the first chapter, I propose a method to estimate ex ante vulnerability to poverty, defined as the probability of being poor in the near future given one’s current characteristics. This is based on the premise that effective social protection policies should aim not only to help the poor move out of poverty, but also to protect the vulnerable from falling into it. In the second chapter, I consider the issue of identifying the poor in a context of targeting social protection programs using a Proxy-Means Testing (PMT) approach, which precision, and therefore usefulness relies on the selection of indicators that produce accurate predictions of household welfare. I propose a method based on model random sampling to identify indicators that are robustly and strongly correlated with household welfare, measured by per capita consumption. These indicators span the categories of household private asset holdings, access to basic domestic energy, education level, sanitation and housing. The third and fourth chapters of this thesis provide an ex-post analysis of development policies and focus in particular on the unintended consequences of a community-driven program and on the reasons for the lack of progress in regional economic integration. The third chapter assesses whether the reaction of the two distinct rebel groups that operate in the Philippines to the implementation of a large-scale community-driven development project funded by foreign aid is consistent with the idea that these two groups have different ideologies, characteristics and motives for fighting. It is based on a unique geo-referenced dataset that we collected from local newspaper reports on the occurrence of conflict episodes involving these rebel groups, and on the predictions of a rent-seeking model of insurgency. The findings are consistent with the proposed classification of the rebel groups; the impact of the foreign aid project on each rebel group depends on their ideological stance. In the last chapter, I analyze how civil conflicts affect the economic fate of African regional economic communities through its effect on the synchronicity of regional partners’ economies. I find that conflict decreases business cycle synchronicity when it occurs within a regional economic community, both for the directly affected countries and for their more peaceful regional peers.