Les erreurs récurrentes et systématiques dans les processus de décision stratégique sont fréquentes ; et les théories actuelles des organisations sont insuffisantes pour les expliquer. La « Behavioral Strategy » suggère de lier ces erreurs à la psychologie des décideurs, et notamment à leurs biais cognitifs. Toutefois, cette vision suppose de connecter le niveau d’analyse de l’individu et celui de l’organisation. Nous proposons pour ce faire un niveau « méso », la routine de choix stratégique (RCS), où interagissent la psychologie des décideurs et les décisions stratégiques. Après avoir distingué trois types de RCS, nous formulons des hypothèses d’intervention sur celles-ci visant à prévenir les erreurs stratégiques. Nous illustrons ces hypothèses par six cas pratiques, en testons certaines par une étude quantitative, et analysons les préférences qui conduisent les dirigeants à les adopter ou non. Nous concluons en discutant les implications théoriques et pratiques de notre démarche. / Many types of strategic decisions result in recurring, systematic errors. Extant theories of organizations are insufficient to account for this phenomenon. Behavioral Strategy suggests that an explanation may be found in the psychology of decision makers, and particularly in their cognitive biases. This, however, calls for a link between individual-level cognition and affects, and organization-level choices. We propose “Strategic Choice Routines” as a middle level of analysis to bridge this gap, and identify three broad types of Strategic Choice Routines.This leads us to formulate hypotheses on how Strategic Choice Routines can be modified to minimize strategic errors. We illustrate these hypotheses through case studies; test some of them quantitatively; and analyze preferences that drive their adoption by executives. Finally, we discuss theoretical and managerial implications.

In this thesis, the theory of rational irrationality is used to explore the incentives behind seemingly irrational beliefs held by a large part of the contemporary American society towards anthropogenic climate change. Applying causal analysis, three questions are answered: "is it rationally irrational for people to be indifferent towards climate change?" "Are Americans inherently more likely than others to hold irrational beliefs about global issues such as climate change?" If so, "is this phenomenon rooted in certain values that constitute the American identity?" The author focuses on specific "American values" and uses statistics and recent empirical studies to find correlations and causality between those values and the exhibited behavior of individuals, while discussing its possible causes and implications. The study concludes that the root cause of irresponsibility of the American citizen towards climate change is a lack of social mechanisms rewarding individuals for holding epistemologically accurate beliefs. The author then proposes a set of general measures to be prioritized in order to improve social reward mechanisms in the American society. If implemented, those measures should be able to effectively enforce epistemic rationality in the U.S. political debate, which is desirable...

Sverige är beroende av nystartade företag och entreprenörer för att finansiera landets välstånd. Riskkapitalbolag innehar ofta en betydande roll för de nya företagen när verksamheten ska utvecklas eller expandera. Bolagen assisterar de nya företagen med ett brett spektrum av nyckelaktiviteter som finansiering, operativt arbete, strategi eller kontaktnät. Tidigare studier visar att riskkapitalfinansierade bolag både växer snabbare och lyckas oftare. Samtidigt visar forskningen att riskkapitalbolag präglas av stort risktagande och övermod vid sina investeringar. Emellertid finns mindre djupgående forskning om vilka konkreta faktorer och omständigheter som resulterar i de olika utfallen. Syftet med examensarbetet är att skapa en bättre förståelse för specifika faktorer som påverkar svenska riskkapitalbolags beslutsfattande och resulterar i särskilda utfall. Undersökningen ämnar att betona likheter och skillnader i riskhanteringen av investeringsval mellan riskkapitalbolagen där utfallen antingen resulterar i nytta eller förlust för bolagen. För att uppfylla syftet har institutionella teorin, kognitiva bias och moderna portföljteorin aktualiserats. Undersökningen genomfördes genom intervjuer med beslutsfattare från åtta stycken konfidentiella riskkapitalbolag. Samtliga bolag kodades om för att säkerställa konfidentialitet i syfte att erhålla djupare inblickar i deras investeringsutfall. De erhållna resultaten visar på att framförallt kognitiva bias men även den institutionella teorin förklarade de olika investeringsutfallen väl. Riskkapitalbolagen präglades av stark övermod vid sina misslyckade investeringar och medelstark vid sina lyckade. Riskkapitalbolagen var också starkt påverkade från både extern tryck av samhället men även av interna riktlinjer vid sina investeringar. Flera branschmönster har också kartlagts vid både lyckade och misslyckade investeringar däribland syndikering av kapital, efterfrågan av serieentreprenörer och att det enligt de själva vanligtvis är entreprenören eller marknaden som är anledningen till att investeringen inte lyckas. Resultatet antyder också att en av de största svårigheterna för riskkapitalbolagen är att bedöma entreprenörernas möjligheter att utveckla företaget. Den mest tänkbara anledningen till att riskkapitalbolagen har starka tendenser till övermod är för att det krävs för att lyckas i branschen. Inget nystartat bolag är riskfritt och för att våga investera i branschen behövs stark tilltro till sin egen förmåga. / Sweden is dependent upon start-ups and entrepreneurs in order to successfully finance domestic prosperity. Venture capital (VC) companies often play a significant role for new companies when the business is to be developed or expanded. The VC companies support the new companies with a wide range of key features. Such as financing, operational work, strategy or contact networks. Previous studies show that VC-financed companies both grow faster and succeed more often than non VC-backed companies. At the same time, research shows that VC-companies are characterized by great risk-taking and audaciousness in their investments. However, there is less in-depth research on what explicit factors and circumstances result in the successful and unsuccessful investments. The purpose of the study is to create a better understanding of similarities and differences in different investment outcomes and highlight the patterns of their investments. Institutional theory, cognitive bias and modern portfolio theory are the theories used in this study. The survey was conducted through eight semi-structured qualitative interviews with different decision makers from VC-companies in Sweden. In order to gain a deeper understanding of their investment outcomes all company names were re-coded. The obtained results showed that cognitive biases was the primary theory of explanation. However, the institutional theory could also explain the different investment outcomes. The VC-companies were characterized by strong audaciousness with their failed investments and medium audaciousness with the successful. The requirement of success in the VC-industry explains why the companies have tendencies to be audacious in their decision making. A strong confidence is needed when investing in start-up companies since these companies imply a great risk. External societal pressure and internal guidelines strongly influence the investments of the VC. The study identified several industry patterns for both successful and unsuccessful investments.  The patterns include syndication of capital and demand for serial entrepreneurs. The study also showed a pattern of venture capitalists explaining their unsuccessful investment due to issues with the entrepreneur or the market. The results suggest that one of the greatest difficulties for VC-companies is to assess the ability of the entrepreneur to develop the company.

La plupart des Américains ne sont pas préoccupés par les vaccins. Cependant, minorité petite mais vocale l’est, et un nombre croissant de parents américains reçoivent des exemptions de vaccination pour leurs enfants sur la base de la religion ou de «convictions personnelles». Le refus vaccinal peut avoir des conséquences désastreuses: dans certaines communautés, la couverture vaccinale infantile a plongé bien en deçà du seuil requis pour «l'immunité collective», permettant à des maladies comme la rougeole d'opérer un retour en force. L'hésitation vaccinale et le refus vaccinal sont souvent attribués au manque de connaissances ou de compréhension des « faits » scientifiques des anti-vaccins. La plupart des interventions de santé publique qui visent à promouvoir la vaccination reposent sur la simple diffusion de connaissances scientifiques fiables; la communication scientifique est perçue comme un processus à sens unique de diffusion des connaissances scientifiques. La théorie est la suivante : si les anti-vaccins savaient à quel point les vaccins sont sécuritaires, efficaces et nécessaires, ils vaccineraient davantage. Malheureusement, la littérature dans plusieurs disciplines suggère que de telles interventions d'éducation passive à l'échelle de la communauté sont généralement inefficaces pour persuader les anti-vaccins d'adopter des attitudes et des comportements pro-vaccination. Pourquoi? En m'inspirant des principes de transdisciplinarité d'Edgar Morin, de la théorie des révolutions scientifiques de Thomas Kuhn et de la méthodologie de revue méta-narrative de Trisha Greenhalgh, j'examine les publications de différents auteurs phares de différentes disciplines qui fournissent directement ou indirectement une réponse à cette question. Je distingue trois approches principales, qui diffèrent quant à leur explication générale des raisons pour lesquelles les interventions basées sur la simple diffusion de preuves scientifiques échouent. La première explication est que les anti-vaccins n'ont pas les connaissances scientifiques nécessaires pour comprendre les preuves scientifiques qui leur sont présentées. La deuxième est que la résistance des anti-vaccins aux preuves scientifiques peut s’expliquer par de nombreux biais cognitifs qui anènent les individus à faire des erreurs systématiques de jugement et à s'écarter ainsi de l’idéal décisionnel de la théorie du choix rationnel. Le troisième narratif sur les anti-vaccins met l'accent sur les influences socioculturelles. Selon la théorie de la cognition culturelle, la culture influence les perceptions du risque à travers des biais cognitifs. Ces trois narratifs sur l'hésitation et le refus de la vaccination sont examinés en profondeur afin de fournir une synthèse interdisciplinaire des facteurs qui peuvent expliquer l'échec des interventions de santé publique basées sur l'éducation à persuader les anti-vaccins. / Most Americans are not concerned about vaccines. However, a small but vocal minority is, and a growing number of parents are receiving vaccine mandate exemptions for their children on the basis of religion or “personal belief.” Vaccine refusal can have disastrous consequences: in some communities, childhood vaccination coverage has dived well below the threshold required for “herd immunity,” allowing diseases like measles to stage a forceful comeback. Vaccine hesitancy and refusal are often attributed to a lack of knowledge or lack of understanding of scientific “facts” on the part of antivaxxers. Most public health interventions that aim to promote vaccination rely on disseminating trustworthy scientific knowledge and see science communication as a one-way process of diffusion of scientific evidence. If antivaxxers knew how safe, effective, and necessary vaccines are, the theory goes, they would vaccinate more. Unfortunately, literature across disciplines suggests that such passive, community-wide education interventions are mostly ineffective at persuading antivaxxers to adopt pro-vaccination attitudes and behaviours. Why? Inspired by Edgar Morin’s principles of transdisciplinarity, Thomas Kuhn’s theory of scientific revolutions, and Trisha Greenhalgh’s meta-narrative review methodology, I examine the publications of different seminal authors across disciplines that directly or indirectly provide an answer to this question. I distinguish three main approaches, which differ as to their general explanation of why interventions based on simple dissemination of scientific evidence fail. The first explanation is that antivaxxers lack the scientific literacy that is necessary to understand the scientific evidence that is presented to them. The second is that antivaxxers’ resistance to scientific evidence can be explained by the numerous cognitive biases and “rules of thumb” that lead individuals to make systematic errors in judgment and thus deviate from the rational choice theory decision-making ideal. The third narrative stresses sociocultural influences. According to cultural cognition theory, culture influences risk perceptions through the mechanisms of cognitive biases and heuristics. These three narratives about vaccine hesitancy and refusal are thoroughly examined in order to provide a cross-disciplinary synthesis of factors that may explain the failure of education-based public health interventions to persuade antivaxxers.

Malgré des progrès remarquables dans une grande variété de sujets, les réseaux de neurones éprouvent toujours des difficultés à exécuter certaines tâches simples pour lesquelles les humains excellent. Comme indiqué dans des travaux récents, nous émettons l'hypothèse que l'écart qualitatif entre l'apprentissage en profondeur actuel et l'intelligence humaine est le résultat de biais inductifs essentiels manquants. En d'autres termes, en identifiant certains de ces biais inductifs essentiels, nous améliorerons le transfert d'informations dans les réseaux artificiels, ainsi que certaines de leurs limitations actuelles les plus importantes sur un grand ensemble de tâches. Les limites sur lesquelles nous nous concentrerons dans cette thèse sont la généralisation systématique hors distribution et la capacité d'apprendre sur des échelles de temps extrêmement longues. Dans le premier article, nous nous concentrerons sur l'extension des réseaux de neurones récurrents (RNN) à contraintes spectrales et proposerons une nouvelle structure de connectivité basée sur la décomposition de Schur, en conservant les avantages de stabilité et la vitesse d'entraînement des RNN orthogonaux tout en améliorant l'expressivité pour les calculs complexes à court terme par des dynamiques transientes. Cela sert de première étape pour atténuer le problème du "exploding vanishing gradient" (EVGP). Dans le deuxième article, nous nous concentrerons sur les RNN avec une mémoire externe et un mécanisme d'auto-attention comme un moyen alternatif de résoudre le problème du EVGP. Ici, la contribution principale sera une analyse formelle sur la stabilité asymptotique du gradient, et nous identifierons la pertinence d'événements comme un ingrédient clé pour mettre à l'échelle les systèmes d'attention. Nous exploitons ensuite ces résultats théoriques pour fournir un nouveau mécanisme de dépistage de la pertinence, qui permet de concentrer l'auto-attention ainsi que de la mettre à l'échelle, tout en maintenant une bonne propagation du gradient sur de longues séquences. Enfin, dans le troisième article, nous distillons un ensemble minimal de biais inductifs pour les tâches cognitives purement relationnelles et identifions que la séparation des informations relationnelles des entrées sensorielles est un ingrédient inductif clé pour la généralisation OoD sur des entrées invisibles. Nous discutons en outre des extensions aux relations non-vues ainsi que des entrées avec des signaux parasites. / Despite remarkable advances in a wide variety of subjects, neural networks are still struggling on simple tasks humans excel at. As outlined in recent work, we hypothesize that the qualitative gap between current deep learning and human-level artificial intelligence is the result of missing essential inductive biases. In other words, by identifying some of these key inductive biases, we will improve information transfer in artificial networks, as well as improve on some of their current most important limitations on a wide range of tasks. The limitations we will focus on in this thesis are out-of-distribution systematic generalization and the ability to learn over extremely long-time scales. In the First Article, we will focus on extending spectrally constrained Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), and propose a novel connectivity structure based on the Schur decomposition, retaining the stability advantages and training speed of orthogonal RNNs while enhancing expressivity for short-term complex computations via transient dynamics. This serves as a first step in mitigating the Exploding Vanishing Gradient Problem (EVGP). In the Second Article, we will focus on memory augmented self-attention RNNs as an alternative way to tackling the Exploding Vanishing Gradient Problem (EVGP). Here the main contribution will be a formal analysis on asymptotic gradient stability, and we will identify event relevancy as a key ingredient to scale attention systems. We then leverage these theoretical results to provide a novel relevancy screening mechanism, which makes self-attention sparse and scalable, while maintaining good gradient propagation over long sequences. Finally, in the Third Article, we distill a minimal set of inductive biases for purely relational cognitive tasks, and identify that separating relational information from sensory input is a key inductive ingredient for OoD generalization on unseen inputs. We further discuss extensions to unseen relations as well as settings with spurious features.

Bakgrund: Coronapandemin präglade under lång tid människors vardag såväl som de finansiella marknaderna. Den kraftiga nedgången i februari - mars år 2020 och den rekordsnabba återhämtningen påverkade privatinvesterare. Dessa investerare stod inför tuffa beslut, och präglades av stress och oro. Under volatila tider sker inte alltid rationella beslut, och denna typ av beslutsmiljö kan påverka investerare att vara mer mottagliga av psykologiska bias. För att undvika att gå i samma fällor, är det av intresse att kartlägga börspsykologiska faktorers påverkan på privatinvesterares agerande och vilken effekt det har på deras diversifiering i aktieportföljen. Eventuella skillnader i agerande under börsnedgångarna visar även om investerarna själva lärde sig någonting från den första börsnedgången och ändrade sitt beteende till den andra börsnedgången. Syfte: Syftet med studien är att kartlägga privatinvesterares agerande på aktiemarknaden under Coronapandemin. Detta för att kunna uttala sig om, privatinvesterares beteende under börsnedgången i februari - mars 2020, samt den andra börsnedgången i oktober samma år. Genom att undersöka två tidsperioder går det att observera skillnader i beteende. Metod: Studien använde sig av en enkätstudie med tvärsnittsdesign för att på generell nivå ha möjlighet till att uttala sig om privatinvesterares agerande under börsnedgångarna. Slutsats: Studien har visat att samtliga undersökta börspsykologiska bias har påverkat privatinvesterare under båda börsnedgångarna men det finns dock skillnader mellan perioderna. Om respondenterna själva får beskriva deras agerande har många angett att de har agerat rationellt under krisen, något som tidigare forskning också konstaterat. Diversifieringen har ökat i aktieportföljen efter börsnedgångarna, jämfört med hur det såg ut vid slutet av 2019. Det är dock inte säkerställt att detta är en effekt av nedgångarna. Slutligen finns det även skillnader i börspsykologiska faktorer och diversifiering mellan demografiska faktorer och erfarenhet från tidigare kriser. / Background: The Corona pandemic has affected people’s everyday life as well as the financial markets. The big decline in the stock market that happened in February-March 2020 and the record fast recovery impacted private investors in a big way. Investors had difficult decisions to make during times of stress and worry, which does not always lead to optimal decisions. The investors could be more affected by biases during times of crisis. To avoid walking into the same traps again it is of investor’s interest to map psychological biases and how they affect the diversification in their stock portfolios. Eventual differences in behavior between the stock market decline in February-Mars and the one in October could be spotted by comparing the two periods. This would show if the respondents themselves learned from the first stock market decline to the second one, hence changing their behavior. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to map private investors’ behavior in the stock market during the Corona pandemic. This will make it possible to discuss private investors’ behavior during the stock market declines in February-March 2020 as well as the one in October the same year. This will make it possible to see differences in behavior. Method: The study used a survey study with cross-sectional design to be able to discuss private investors’ behavior at a general level. Conclusion: The study has shown that all studied psychological biases to affect private investors during the stock market declines, showing there are differences between these periods. If the respondents describe their own actions, then many of say themselves that they acted rational during the crisis, something that previous studies have shown. The diversification has also increased after the stock market declines compared to how it was at the end of 2019, but it is not certain that it is an effect of the stock market declines. There are also differences between demographic factors and experience from previous crises with regards to psychological biases and diversification.

Wikipedia ist die weltweit am häufigsten genutzte Online-Referenzplattform mit über 60 Millionen Artikeln in mehr als 320 Sprachen. Große Technologieunternehmen nutzen sie, um KI-Systeme zu trainieren und Fakten zu definieren. Trotz ihrer Reichweite wird kaum über den Diskurs diskutiert, den Wikipedia über die Menschheit verbreitet. Mit einem Archiv von über 6 Millionen Biografien „bedeutender“ Personen erhebt Wikipedia den Anspruch auf Inklusivität durch offene Zusammenarbeit, Neutralität und Transparenz. Studien zeigen jedoch wiederholt Vorurteile zugunsten traditionell dominanter sozialer Gruppen wie Männer und Personen aus dem Globalen Norden. Diese Dissertation analysiert systematisch, wie Wikipedia das kollektive Gedächtnis der Menschheit prägt. Sie untersucht, welche Gruppen hervorgehoben werden und welcher historische Diskurs der biografischen Struktur zugrunde liegt. Die Arbeit gliedert sich in drei Teile. Teil 1 definiert zentrale Konzepte zur Analyse von Wikipedias biografischem Diskurs. Teil 2 analysiert Ungleichheiten in der Darstellung nach Geschlecht, Geburtsort und Lebenszeit, einschließlich einer Fallstudie über bedeutende Soziologen. Teil 3 untersucht, ob Wikipedia als Machtinstrument dominante Narrative verstärkt. Die zentrale These lautet, dass Wikipedias inklusive und neutrale Herangehensweise unbeabsichtigt asymmetrische Inhaltsstrukturen schafft. Dies führt zu einer „ausschließenden Inklusion“ marginalisierter Gruppen, die subtil Wahrnehmungen, Bedeutungen und Verhaltensweisen der Nutzer beeinflusst. Dank ihres Rufs für Neutralität und Transparenz legitimiert Wikipedia solche Narrative über Sprach- und Kulturgrenzen hinweg. So verstärken die biografischen Inhalte globale diskursive Ungleichgewichte – auf eine subtile und schwer erkennbare Weise. / Wikipedia is the most widely used online reference in the world, offering over 60 million articles in more than 320 languages. Major tech companies utilize it to train influential AI systems and rest on it to define facts. Despite its reach, limited discussion exists about the overarching discourse it promotes regarding humanity. This is surprising, since the evidence seems contradictory. With a repository of over 6 million biographies of "notable" individuals, Wikipedia claims inclusivity through policies of open collaboration, neutrality, and transparency. However, research consistently reveals the existence of biases in its content, favoring traditionally dominant social groups, such as men and individuals from the Global North. This dissertation systematically analyzes how Wikipedia shapes collective memory of humanity, focusing on which groups receive prominence and the underlying historical discourse in its biographical structure. The study comprises three parts. Part 1 defines key concepts for analyzing Wikipedia’s biographical discourse. Part 2 investigates disparities in representation by gender, birthplace, and historical period, including a case study on notable sociologists. Part 3 examines whether Wikipedia acts as a power device reinforcing dominant narratives. The central argument is that Wikipedia's inclusive and neutral approach unintentionally creates asymmetrical content structures. This results in "exclusionary inclusion" of marginalized groups in its content, subtly shaping user observations, meanings, and behaviors. By leveraging its reputation for neutrality, openness, and transparency, Wikipedia also legitimates its biased narratives across languages and cultures. Ultimately, the platform's biographical content reinforces discursive imbalances between human beings on a global scale, albeit in an understated and arguably hard-to-recognize way.